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When I combine this with Reggie's excellent post on implied volatility over the weekend I am forced to come to the conclusion that what is happening in the markets can only be manipulation. How can reality really count for nought in this mad melt up?
The markets ARE the reality. Technical analysis IS the reality.
Conjecture about the "sky is falling" is manipulation...
ChiefOnanist... there's an old axiom you should consider - "If you can bet on it, it can be fixed."
Higher stock prices are a national security priority. If you think this is a joke, then you've never spent any time inside the Beltway. The solvency of public pensions and therefore the loyalty of those who provide for public safety are what's at stake here. Unlike other asset prices, stocks are relatively easy to manipulate -- so they will be manipulated. The coercive power of government trumps market forces every time. It always has, and it always will.
Plus, there's obviously a magnificent short-squeeze in progress, so in the short-term, both the government and the private playerz are leaning in the same direction.
"The coercive power of government trumps market forces every time. It always has, and it always will."
Only until 10 & 30 year bond yields top current mortgage rates.
Thank you David Rosenberg for keeping me sane...while my risk averse portfolio gets beaten like a tired mule. Hmm. Maybe I should be angry and resentful instead, come to think of it.
who cares? the market goes up everyday, especially on mondays, beginning of months, end of months, middle of months, option experations, jobs release fridays, everytime they release or restate GDP, thursday initial jobless claims, days oil is up, days oil is down, days the dollar is weak, days the dollar rallies, days interest rates tank, days interest rates rise, fed days, beige book, home data releases....
TX = 4% -- now let's see if the world comes to an end. LOL.
For anyone chasing the tiger right now, just understand that these bids are purely short-term money. Rosie has been trying to say this time and time again.
While Howard Marks said it best in that, "Being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong," I'd much rather sit back and grit my teeth as I see long-term attractive securities get bid to inifinity.
And I am as big of a gold/silver bull as anyone on this site, but I'm also worried (hopeful) that both will also see their bottoms fall out before the true uptrend begins.
Thanks for the great info. But I still say that Wall St. remains divorced from reaity. The gov't rescued the banks and a few other businesses, but Main St. remains underwater. I do not see this changing for a decade unless the sheeple revolt.
qe 2.0 starts 3d quarter 2010....my bet....stupid does as stupid is and ben bernanke is one stupid ass...
Of course the market is manipulated; nothing new other than it’s a tad more obvious than usual. There are those who think they can somehow “win” even with this knowledge (see Master Bates above), but that is a bet that you can somehow move faster than the “market makers” when it starts correcting – good luck with that for us “normal” people.
The market is Vegas, only more socially acceptable. Just like Vegas, one should never bet more than they can afford to lose, and smart people know when it’s best to simply stay in the stands and observe. A couple years back it was rather obvious to anyone paying attention that the mortgage market was going to go belly up. The only question was timing (and by early to mid 2007 we at least knew the year it would happen). With the market so completely removed from reality at this point and all the interference by every government on the planet trying to prevent any meaningful reconciliation between the systems need to inflate and reality’s need to deflate I personally feel much more comfortable staying out. At this point I’d have more faith on being lucky with the spin of a roulette wheel than the market having any connection with underlying fundamentals (and after what they did to bond holders and share holders the past couple years does anyone really know what their rights as a holder of paper – even secured paper - even are anymore?).
In such a situation something will assuredly give, the problem is they have made the problems one of national solvency rather than simply one of a company’s bankruptcy, and I just fail to see how anyone can profess confidence in forecasting how that plays out. It’s outside the markets experience and flying blind is a fools game, not an investors. Thus I will continue to stay on the sidelines and prepare for the worst (hard assets & cash that are liquid and easily movable and overseas investments that hedge currency destruction and avoid demographic issues...).
Maybe someday America will be worth investing in again. This is not that day.
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