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Rosenberg Goes Bearish On Silver
While the jury is still out on whether David Rosenberg went bullish on equities just as the market topped out (Rosenberg certainly denies it), it is without doubt that in his note today to premium subscribers, in addition to some traditionally cautious and correct observations on the economy, the former Merrill strategist has "just said no" to silver. It remains to be seen if there will be another clarification note following this one should silver (and/or gold) resume the gradual roll higher (especially since with just 90 contracts traded on the HKMerx, the brand spanking new contract may need to lower margins to attract participation). Quote Rosie: "for now I think it is time to step back and adopt a more defensive and cautious posture towards the group...I would not recommend being aggressive in the commodity space until many of the clouds that have recently surfaced begin to part."
Full extract:
Of all the commodities, the chart of silver going into this current corrective phase looked the most asymptotic. As is the case in the markets, the harder they climb the harder they fall. But inevitably, support is found, and generally at the 200- day moving average, which in this case is $29 an ounce.
We went into this with pro-risk trades being fuelled by QE2, sky-high margin for equities, a general view that inflation was the correct trade and a sustained decline in the U.S. dollar. The net speculative long positions in the futures and options market for most commodities, including silver, did suggest that a squeeze on these longs could generate some outsized price action and it must be remembered that the market for silver is far smaller than it is for gold.
Plus, a lot of the risk-on trades were predicated on a sustained weak U.S. view, and while the greenback is in a secular bear market, it had moved into a huge oversold position technically and the net speculative short position had surged to a sufficiently high level that like silver, any shift here could trigger an outsized move and it has. Once the speculative shorts in the dollar and longs in several of the areas within the commodity space are squeezed out and the spot prices are realigned with the broad trend lines, it will be safer, in my view to accumulate. But in the interim, and knowing how commodity markets can behave for a period of months or quarters (2008-09 should not be forgotten), given their inherent volatility, we should probably expect to see a downswing sustained for the next several months. Beyond the technicals and the positioning, we also have to see how successful the Asian central banks are, especially in China and India, at curbing their heightened inflation pressures without upsetting their economic apple carts.
I am still a long-term commodity bull, and I think there will be a massive buying opportunity for those who are patient and have a view beyond 2011; however, for now I think it is time to step back and adopt a more defensive and cautious posture towards the group. On a positive note, the dislocations in the market have created interesting opportunities for alternative resource strategies, which focus more on relative value mispricing rather than outright direction. Moreover, if the six months after QE1 ended last year is any indication, we should be expecting to see a firm USD and some softness in the CRB index through the second half of the year. Being nimble will be crucial, as always, but I would not recommend being aggressive in the commodity space until many of the clouds that have recently surfaced begin to part.
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C'mon Rosie, buy a shitload of AGQ and ZSL and see what happens - live a little!
Gas prices, energy prices, food prices - NOT hurting American Consumer (nor almost all retailers).
Got it, people?
The Bernank says there is too little inflation, but that even if there were inflation (wink), it wouldn't be a bad thing.
LULZ
Rosenberg???
You think I'm going to let a Jew tell me what to do with my money?
+7 (to bring you to equilibrium with the junks). I mean really with Soros talking opposite to his book and Goldman's proprietary trading, and Paulson (both Henry and John) selling out the country that gave them a safe place to hide from the Germans, these folks get a free pass??? Sorry assholes, hating these people is not the same thing as anti-Semitism, anymore than criticizing Israeli Army committed Genocide in Gaza is Anti-Semitism.
+1
http://stevequayle.com/News.alert/11_Global/110516.testa.Alabama.html
Silver up 4 percent on the news.
I live and work relatively near to the heart of the fiat beast, Washington DC. With two thirds of the population engaged in working directly for the government, in the military or working on the various military bases as civilian employees, the CIA/NSA etc, working for defense or services contractors or subs/sub-subs and so on, the bewitching is pretty strong here.
At least more so than other large cities in the mid west or on the west coast. Yes, I know that is a broad statement. You must actually live here to see and feel it. Aware people who visit from other places are often very surprised by the vibrations coming from the beast.
Anyway, I saw my first small neatly printed sign in a small hardware store Monday quietly telling their customers that they take Silver and Gold in payment. An admittedly small act of rebellion, but huge when you consider the location. I'm sure there are others around here as well. It was like seeing the first spring flowers.
I never would have expected spring to come to Washington before it hit Texas.
The only places you can trade directly in silver around here are farmer's markets.
I'm in the area myself and I haven't seen that quite yet. Doesn't surprise me though.
No questions asked this place is definitely uh different than the rest of the country. I'm actually as physically close as it gets to DC without having to actually work there. But I sure can see it from the office windows...
CD - at what price/exchange rate would they accept silver/gold as payment?
I didn't ask.
I know the owner by sight only and I gave him a thumbs up while pointing to the sign. He responded with a big shit eating grin like this. :>)
Its the new "fightclub"
After multiple tours in the NCR I can tell you most military types are clueless about almost all matters monetary. They get their LES at the end of the month and check their Direct Deposit and pay their bills. That's as deep as they get. Now ask a troop the rate of fire and max effective range of his M16A3 assault rifle he can regurgitate those facts in his sleep.
Good to read times are a changin.
Actually, I'm not surprised. TPTB are always ahead of the curve (while keeping the hoi polloi as far back as possible). That's, of course, why they're TPTB.
According to Wammyassclown Gold doesn't buy bread though.
Good! Go bearish. Every time it drops provides more opportunities for investors to grab more silver as paper currencies falter.
I thought this guy was supposed to be smart. "Wait until the clouds clear...?" C'mon Rosie. Ya lets wait til the clouds clear and every moron on the planet is buying silver. No thanks. I'll buy mine now while it's still on sale.
That was the thinking yesterday......today....not so much.
Actually the author makes a good point. Between QE1 and QE2 there was a market dip that provided some buying opportunities. He makes the point that he is long term bullish on commodities. He mearly pointing out that between QE2 and QE3 there will be some more opportunities and you'd benefit from waiting a bit for those opportunities.
I agree with him completely. How is the removal of at least $58B/month in liquidity not bearish for everything? Particularly since margin is near record levels and a major unwind could occur. The market is more dependent on now on QE than previously, at least in sustaining higher and higher prices, so it seems quite logical to stand on the sidelines.
I'm watching everything trying to go higher today, while sitting in 90% cash, and have little want for any of it. I don't see how the risk/reward isn't telling everyone to sell and see what happens post QE2.
slow_roast: IMO you are trying to buy picking the bottom. If you're not fast enought with your 90% cash you might be left buying $40 silver or $1650 gold.
Rosie does have a point a broad based market contraction if and when QE2 is completly withdrawn. I would not want to be timing those markets.
"How is the removal of at least $58B/month in liquidity not bearish for everything?"
It is not being removed it is being rolled.
He jumped the shark when he started charging for his "wisdom."
After that trip bottom at 33? he thinks it will go down? LOL I took the other side of that at 34.20 we will see how it works out
Silver back up over $35 today
dont worry.. silver hits $40.. which means golds at $1550's.. and the FED Flush.. will push the prices back down at 2 times the cost for those who own gold and silver.. our tax dollars flush the price and the value of what we own goes down! thats DOUBLE!! WINNING!!! TIGER BLOOD BITCHEZ!!!
OT (I said it, so on to Rosie's tragi-call, if you want):
A new Chinese video game, being promoted and used by the Chinese Military, Glorious Mission pits Chinese Soldiers directly against U.S. Soldiers.
Why not Russian, Japanese or NATO Troops?
PLA First Person Shooter: Glorious Missionnice deception again. This guy is lying and buying.
Went to the wal-mart Toilet paper up $2.00
from $5.87 to $7.87. Detergent what was 296 oz's now 250 oz's.
With $2.00 increase in price.
If things are deflationary why the hell is the price of everything going up big time?
Like telling people the gas chambers were showers.
When was Rosie bullish on silver?
I don't recall. I know he's always been talking deflation.... he obviously doesn't buy the groceries in his house.
I hate the self check outs too. Shit, just pay some poor soul minimum wage. The money saved from theft at those checkouts alone would cover their pay. But some brilliant fuck in corporate thought to buy machines at 50k a pop.
artificially drive the physical buy back price down with their judefetzen.
And then sell physical at twice bogus buy back price.
Starve the masses while they hole up in 3k a night park ave. hotels.
Doing God's work.
Isn't Rosie one of them?
would make a bit of sense.. if gold/silver ran up due to QE2.. it would fall a little without it. I figure the commodity complex will be weak until they start yapping about QE3 - which means (if you believe QE3 is inevitable) now is the time to buy gold and silver on weakness.
With or without QE, every single correction in gold and silver the last 11 years has been bought and met later with new highs. That is a fact.
So has anything changed fundamentally right now? No, it hasn't.
Thanks BP I was going to say the same. QE or not the trend has been in place. The only thing QE did was buy the financial system more time to dole out Freebux.
So buying pullbacks is a sucker's mission now? Buy the run-ups! Okay, got it. Thanks.
I didn't say that. I simply pointed out that gold and silver were in a long term bull market well before QE started.
Skyhigh margin? The same amount margin that has been in place for years?
Just prior to the $6 May 1st crash, the Comex market was being manically traded by HFT bots, presumably on the part of the chronically short bullion banks, on daily volume that exceeded annual mined supply.
Like ZH has previously noted, the speculative longs in the COT report for the time were not frothingly parabolic, but were at all time lows.
Duplicate comment.
I think he meant to say "I would not recommend being aggressive in the commodity space until someone else takes the risk, reaps 90% of the reward and leaves a few crumbs for the timid." And that's precisely why he will find himself late to the party yet again...the ability to analyse fundamentals in hindsight is not going to replace a good trader's sense of timing.
Can't understand why he generates so much attention. He is virtually never correct in his predictions. Imagine if he were an engineer giving structural stability reports on buildings.
Rosenberg is probably one of the biggest contrarian indicators in America, with Denninger and Prechter. Every single call he made was an utter and complete disaster.
Tyler likes him because he is the only ex-bank analyst in the world who is bearish on the economy, with Bob Janjuah. Maybe he wants to prove that ZeroHedge is not necessarily anti-bankers.
Like every mainstream analyst, Rosenberg goes bearish on something when the correction is over. Telling to short silver after a 40% drop is way beyond surreal.
Just like 2007 when he said he is bearish on housing?
Fuck you troll. Go pay a hooker to get laid and fucking leave ZH.
I think Hamy is HarryWanger's comedic twin brother, who jests about his brother's true calling: Urinal cakes.
mmm. Fine dining and free if they aren't chained down.
David Rosenberg goes bearish on something: time to drop the shorts and go long.
Hamy Faggot, I think you forgot the fact that Rosenberg called the SPX to the effin tick in '09!
Sounds like you're on top of things, and yes, you go long dip shit. Hold my drink and watch this...
Is this the dip I am looking for?
i want to get another 100oz of silver this year and ideally would like to time my purchase at one of the lowest (if not the lowest) dips of 2011....
should i buy in May? June? July? August? September or beyond?
i want to lock in my price prior to the QE3 bounce
For that quantity, you might consider ignoring the premiums and spot price and just start buying a 10 oz bar or say $400 worth of 90% coins a week. At least you get some of that fiat converted now. The odds of hitting the exact bottom are way against you and the main goal for long term wealth preservation is accumulation. I buy physical low, I buy it high. At this level, the near term price is not my concern. But, if you ever figure out how to precisely time that lowest dip, please share the information.
Even Rosie's hindsight is 20/100.
Rosenberg is void of credibility
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42782844/print/1/displaymode/1098/
What a crock of shit. The banksters "play with our world like it's their own little toy". KKK banksters FTW!
Since as far as the CFTC is concerned, contract holders standing for delivery can wait until hell freezes over, Rosie may just be right.
Is there a record for shark jumping? With all due respect, this guy is a champ.
It really should be an Olympic sport at this point.
Rosie might have caught the exact bottom here. We shall see...
Sad to see a bull get shaken out. None of these guys will still be long when gold and silver really start moving. Most likely they will be raging bears. Normalcy bias and ego won't allow it.
Im glad he is a bear. The more bears the better.I just bought 2 Canadian Grizzlies. 2nd in the wildlife series by the Canadian mint with some chump change 2 ply I had lying around to commemorate this wonderous prediction.
You just paid ridiculously high premiums on 2 coins to show how much wiser you are than Rosie? Slick moves Ace.
Yes ACE, I don't remember mentioning what I paid for the coins, being smarter than anyone or trying to prove anything. OMG 2 coins are going to backrupt me. What a PUTZ.
I think the larger issue is if you believe that we are headed for chaos, do you own physical silver and or gold? It does not matter what price you get in, it is all relative. You are converting paper fiat to physical as an insurance policy. If all you want to do is speculate on price movements, then play the game in the paper markets. If you want something that will be accepted in exchange for something you need like food or other items, then you just might want to have some gold and silver coins of some type. The gold is for the big transactions, the silver is for the smaller transactions. You accumulate your position over time in a percentage of your liquid net worth that you feel comfortable holding. Keep in mind that WTSHTF if you don't have it, you are not going to be able to get it without some difficulty.
This line reminds me so much of the 'buy now or be priced out forever!' bullsh*t spewed on the public by the real estate industry in 2003-2007. In this case however the real estate industry is replaced not by the mining industry that is probably indifferent to prices because of their hedging but rather the slippery finance industry (lol) salesmen like Sprott who are profitting handsomely from this bubble.
"to premium subscribers". I'd save the $$ if I were you.
Rosenberg.... No wonder Lloyd kicked him out of the US.
"You'll never work in this town again kid."
~D'jean Splicer
Save your energy. AVERAGE DOWN.
A deflationary spiral would be catastrophic to the whole power structure around the world. It would cause massive defaults and basically undermine the entire system.
Therefore, there will be further printing. BUT....it may not be made public! National security allows the Fed to do that.
Just look at the chart - Ag was parabolic.
It does not matter who did it, why, how; the chart was unsustainable from a pure trading perspective.
Conspiracy theories, even if true, do not matter.
I didn't buy the last $11 dollars of that bottle rocket because I didn't believe it; maybe I missed out but I also missed out on a 60% correction in my beloved AGQ.
I am waiting for sub-$30 Ag as well. I think Rosenberg presents a cogent argument for a further correction. Would I short it? No way. Am I concerned with my bullion in the closet - not in the slightest.
He clearly states he's bullish on commoditites. I believe he is making a statement about manipulation and price swings. I'm sure he'd be a buyer at or under the 200 dma but who knows if it will hit there.
Silver is a "buy" anywhere below $50 dinars...
...at least for me it is. I'd be buying right now if I wasn't such a 'slacker'
Looks like we're gonna have to change your name from "rosie" TO "posie" SINCE SILVER IS UP 5+% TODAY. Jeeesh, just think of ALL the money that has been wasted on the education of ALL of these, so-called "ADVISORS"!? AS ALWAYS, JUST BUY THE FUCKING DIP..........
What's changed for me in the last 18 months is that when I "step back and adopt a more defensive and cautious posture" I do it in gold, not in a fiat currency. I'm on hard currency. I will remain on it until America has a balanced budget (it's a permanent change).
The deflation argument (unutiltized capacity, under-employment, no wage pressure...) is all irrelevant. it's all about the debt.
Click below to read why the silver market will continue to be manipulated: http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/market-manipulation-not-t...
QE3 won't do any good. It will only rip the scab off the wounds.
Pick your poison, Bernankincide - inflate more, and ruin whatever is left of the organic economy, or - let deflation set upon the economy in earnest, and let some organic growth take place, but watch your Wall Street puppet masters yank your limbs off in a furious rage when the taxpayer provided cocaine no longer makes the rounds.
I do have a feeling that it's at least possible that even the international banksters realize that the U.S. and Europe are just too damn big, still, to sacrifice on the alter of too high inflation for too long, lest they seal their own miserable fate in the process.
Why does this man still have a job?
Someone let him know quick, he should be the replacement as the head of the IMF.
While we all know that in the long run Silver will outperform but it doesn't mean that the price can't drop in the short-run with temporary deflation and seasonal weakness ahead. But Comex will certainly mitigate the effect by reducing the margin requirements 5 times in a week when option expirey will favor all put options.
http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/precious-metals-are-overbought...
or do we have a misterious HEP call option buyer who's changing the game after a month of kill-or-cure remedy?
http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/05/hedge-funds-show-lowest-net-long-si...
ZH's religion to silver is becoming a bit insane. All Rosenberg is saying here is that short-term it looks lousy, and the charts certainly confirm that.
Wrong Way Rosenberg!
Just read what Rosenberg actually said...he simply said that the chart on silver looks poor. And somehow ZH makes it into a grand headline. For the record, Rosie has been bullish on PMs for the past decade.
check out the very import gold silver ratio CYCLE
http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=208_the-only-chart-that-will-make-you-a-silver-millionaire-2011-05
let's see how this will develope until Friday:
http://www.hkmerc.com/en/market_news_data/today_quotes_news/HKG/index.html
GOLD and SILVER daily and weekly charts are bearish/neutral. Further downside expected.
Silver chart posted April 28 warning what was ahead:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/2011/04/27/thurs-april-28
Be careful folks.
et tu rosey? you lift your leg against me now?
We all know markets move in both directions. I must admit this market feels really poor to me. I went to mostly cash except for physical this week. Just let it play out. We know the outcome, it will take time. This is not the Lusitania which went down into the sea in 18 minutes. Be patient. At some point The Berank will share a cell with Strauss-Kann. Will be looking for new entries for PMs. I might miss the appetizer, but I will be with you for the main course. And will not short this market until the entire Bear family returns. Like what I got.