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Rosenberg On How Only The 10 Year Can Break The Market's Trendline And What Can Dent Top-Line Corporate Growth

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Comparisons to last year's market performance continue coming from left and right. Today, David Rosenberg looks not only at the broken trendline from late last summer, when the market's decline was only arrested with the seemingly unnecessary QE2 (not to mention massive fiscal stimulus into year end) - well, if it was not needed why was it implemented, and why is it still running? Because the market, pardon economy, will crack at the first hint of excess liquidity tapering, forget removal. What should market strategists look for to see if we get a repeat of last spring's market topping action? Simple: the 10 Year (and real inflation)- "If we do go to 4% on the 10-year Treasury note on the back of higher
inflation expectations, then rest assured the broad expectation will be
that it is headed next to 4.5% and it will be interesting to see how the
equity market would respond to that prospect." We conclude by looking at why top-line corporate growth, largely driven by foreign growth, is due for a decline.

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND — UNTIL IT IS BROKEN

As Doug Kass most eloquently put it, a trend is special because it doesn’t break on its own. Some countervailing force, exogenous shock or surprise has to act as the inflection point — in both directions. Last year in the fall, when the stock market was about to break down to a new range but the trend was broken by the quasi announcement of QE2, followed by the substantial fiscal stimulus that bought time for another year. So what happened was that the ‘double dip’ concerns undermining market sentiment were reversed and a new trend of positive sustainable growth has re-emerged. While we are likely to see the economy slow down in the coming quarters, there is nothing we can see to suggest a contraction in GDP is forthcoming that quickly. So recession odds have been increasingly taken off the table, though the policy vacuum is likely to cause more than just an air pocket for the economy in 2012 (and recessions have this nasty historical tendency of taking place during election years). This market has managed to climb despite many a wall of worry and it has withstood the tests to date.

The S&P 500 was wobbling and seemingly on its way to a new and lower range just prior to the QE2 announcement from Mr. Bernanke last August — and the QE2 was a catalyst that helped break the downtrend. The improvement in the data and the added fiscal thrust have nurtured this new uptrend too. But what could happen to force a break in the other direction? After all, if you go back to the interim peak of last year, which took hold in late April, there was something that broke the uptrend and it had nothing to do with double-dip recession risks that came much later. It was when the yield on the 10-year note broke to 4% in early April of 2010 and provided some competition for the stock market that we started to see equities embark on a new downward trend for the next 3-4 months.

Well, you don’t have to be a chartist to see that we do have a breakout in the 10-year U.S. Treasury-note yield on our hands and before we go any further, the answer is no, we have not all of a sudden become inflation-phobes or bond bears. Far from it. But the prospect of an inflation scare and more upward pressure on yields over the near-term is the one development few people are talking about that could upset the apple cart.

The runup in yields so far, from the October lows, has been just about four parts “real rate” driven and one part “inflation” driven. The real rate adjustment reflects the improvement we have seen in the real economy as well as heightened risk appetite among investors. But we have had, nonetheless, a situation where food costs have surged at a 60% annual rate since last Fall and energy prices at a 45% annual rate. Considering that food and fuels make up 23% of the CPI, it would stand to reason that we are going to be seeing some pretty big headline numbers coming soon, even if the grocery chains come close to fully passing these costs to consumers. As we said yesterday, 4% headline inflation is when the stock market buckles for good, and based on our models and spreadsheets if this were to happen, it wouldn’t be until the very end of the year.

The key also will be the core because the markets have not had to contend with a +0.3% print since July 2008, which for many of us was a lifetime ago. This would be a surprise, and yet the last time we had commodities rising as sharply as they are today, we had a handful of them of 0.3% prints. If we do go to 4% on the 10-year Treasury note on the back of higher inflation expectations, then rest assured the broad expectation will be that it is headed next to 4.5% and it will be interesting to see how the equity market would respond to that prospect.

This is what is different today from a year ago — the surge in raw material prices. There are lags in terms of impact through the real economy, pricing and margins. The reason why we cannot rule out +0.3% for the core CPI or perhaps even a couple of nasty, even if brief reports, is that airlines are passing on the fuel costs and we know that apparel retailers will soon pass on the cotton-induced price increases. Moreover, unlike a year ago, the rental components of the CPI are no longer decelerating. This does pose a bit of a near-term problem because the best leading indicator of core goods CPI is the core intermediate PPI and it has risen now by 0.3% or more for four months in a row and at an annual rate of around 6%.

Imagine what printing a couple of 0.3%’s on core CPI in coming months will do to QE3 prospects — seriously damage them is what — at a time when 40% of market participants already believe that this is baked in the cake.

As an aside, consumer discretionary, financials, and utilities within the equity sectors would be the ones most negatively affected by the scenario depicted above; energy, technology, and materials are the areas that would have the lowest correlation with a near-term inflation and market interest rate spasm.

And Rosie on the end in top-line growth.

LOOKING AT SALES, NOT JUST EARNINGS

We are hearing how great S&P 500 sales are doing so far for Q4 — up 7.7% and beating estimates by the highest margin in a half-decade. We scoured the data as best we could and found that almost all the growth in sales is coming from outside the U.S.A. where revenues are growing at barely a 3% annual rate. The pace is around 20% for foreign-derived sources. So the question is what happens to revenues if the foreign stuff comes under some downward pressure in view of the policy tightening in most emerging markets and the fiscal tourniquet being applied through most of Europe.

The two reasons why companies have had such success in driving their profit growth into a V-shaped recovery has been via an exceptionally robust foreign sales performance and relentless cost-cutting. But you can’t cut costs forever and we are already seeing signs that the downward momentum in unit labour costs is subsiding. On top of that is the surge in material costs, which we have not seen percolate yet, but will surely compress margins from their current five-decade highs.

We should start to get some corporate guidance numbers next week but for the time being we do have the analyst upgrade-downgrade ratios, which has stagnated recently. They are no longer going up and are actually going down in six of the ten sectors. Those with positive momentum include technology and materials. Utilities and consumer discretionary are not screening well at all.

 


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Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

IRELAND NEEDS ANOTHER 50 BILLION.

 

WHOEAHAHAHAHAHA!

 

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

SILVER NEAR 30$

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:15 | Link to Comment MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

Mr. Rosenberg, you don´t worry, the FED fascists will care about the destruction of the USA. "FED FASCISM" will be the expression of the century!

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:23 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

in order for this correction to take place the government would need to overturn the mandate that the market MUST hit a new multi year high each and every day of the calendar year...as will be tha case again today...as the dollar gets it right in the ass...again.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:27 | Link to Comment AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Rosenberg reminds me of that guy on the street corner warning of the end of the world. One day if he lives long enough he will be correct.  Even if the SPX were to correct 20%, Rosie would still have a credibility issue as he has been calling for a market break for what seems like forever.

In the above article Mr. Deflation himself  chimes on and on about inflationary pressures as a potential trigger for a market cataclysm with the caveat: 

 

"we have not all of a sudden become inflation-phobes or bond bears. Far from it."

 

 

Rosie, what credibility you had left is now gone.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:30 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

but can any person of reasonable intelligence deny that the market has become a flagrant fraud?

or are you stupid enough to believe that this is some sort of organic melt-up based on the prospects of an improving economy?

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 12:04 | Link to Comment AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

IQ, I think you are on the wrong blog, try this link:

http://messages.yahoo.com/yahoo/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/index.html

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 12:07 | Link to Comment 6 String
6 String's picture

Alient-IQ,

Clearly, Rosie is neither a good fundamentalist or a good trader. He is neither. His macro views hasn't helped him with alpha either. In other words, he's just a complete jackass.

Of course, we all know the market is rigged--no shit. But it hasn't taken much to see the liquidity ramps and the market coincide with one another, which makes rosie a total and useless imbecile IMO. If you want advice on how to make money, listen to David Tepper and for a good counter balancer a Mike Krieger.

But Rosie? Useless.

Plus, I have been saying it since just under 3% on the 10y and 4% on the 30 year, Rosie is an idiot long on bonds and I'll take the other side any day. Again, who is right? I'm up 25% on that levered trade....where is Rosie on this?

Rosie is useless. If you want underperformance, mediocre to shit results, then he is, of course, your man.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 21:52 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

guitar wannabee:

"Rosie is useless."

'pends upon the objectives of his clientelle and of Gluskin-Sheff.  He's talking and walking a conservative book (in CANADA) and warning long-term high net value folk how to (maybe) survive something that many contemplate will be coming.

so, if Rosie is 'useless', well, what do you use?  (I don't use Rosie either, but he was a Farrell protoge, so worth listening).

- Ned

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:33 | Link to Comment pat53
pat53's picture

Credibility ? What credibility? He has never had any. Just fade whatever he "suggests" and you'll do well  Rosie doesn't have a clue !!

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

 "Some countervailing force, exogenous shock or surprise has to act as the inflection point"

 

 

Here we have another so-called fundamentalist trying to talk the talk of a TA.  What utter tripe.  Any time someone uses the word "exogenous", watch out.  Pretty soon this guy's going to be cozying up with the Bernank.

 

The gold market had a 1987 - 1996 down trend line that defined its final bear market bottom.  What was the "exogenous" shock that turned the market up through that trend line in 2003?  Nothing that Rosenberg can point to, I'm sure.  Some "surprise"?  I don't think so.  Maybe a "countervailing force"?  Yeah, that sounds good. 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 12:03 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

China holds the key to it all, the emperor here is naked and Ben disrobed is PROB not A PRETTY SIGHT.  yOU GRANT HIM TOO MUCH RESPECT, Following the MSM cue.. JUST A BEARDED ACADEMIC WITH LIMITED EMPLOYMENT HISTORY.  While China gets little.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:56 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

This has been the mother of all sucker rallies, one that Wall Street could never have engineered without the help of Uncle Ben and his willingness to print trillions of dollars and give it to the banksters. When it ends it will be amazing to watch.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 12:35 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

His analysis is consistently excellent.

If you want advice, talk to your mother.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Read Rosie's piece from yesterday. Brilliant.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/just-how-ugly-truth-americas-unemployment-david-rosenberg-explains

His long PM call has worked out quite nicely, thank you. 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 14:33 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

+1 Pegasus. There are a lot of folks here whose attention span is measured in "ticks" and don't have either the time, patience or understanding to see the larger trends Rosenberg is talking about. Anyone who wants to completely write off the deflation side to this story is doing themselves a great disservice. In a multi-decade market rotation, you have to look past a 2 year chart. Sorry momo's.... lol  

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 19:46 | Link to Comment AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

WOW - a Rosie post with just 15 comments (prior to this one)

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!