Rosenberg: "Pig Farmers" Placing Short Bets Now As We Retest S&P 900

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Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:19 | 365601 RobotTrader
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Indexes

 

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:40 | 365629 john_connor
john_connor's picture

I figured that you would turn up with a post once the market bounced.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:37 | 365772 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

why are predictions so compelling?

STOCKS

The Cycles Show Final Highs Soon, Then Down, Next Highs In 2012

High Conviction Trends

  • Stocks peak around the third week in April around 1170 (S&P 500),
  • Pullback May – June, potentially up to 10-20%
  • Then recovery and final peak in August (no level given)
  • Then down for the next 6-12 months, potentially to around March 2009  lows well into 2011,
  • At some point around mid 2011, stocks to recover to prior highs peaking in 2012
  • Then begins a longer term downtrend from 2013 for many years. Indeed, in prior interviews Nenner has called the period a ‘lost decade’ similar to that experienced by Japan. FYI, his cycles regarding military conflicts point to a big one in 2013.

The cycles show that’s the big picture for stocks.

Beginners should be reminded that within these time frames there will be, as always, shorter term counter trends, and some indices will of course perform relatively better, but will still follow overall trend.

Contrary to many pundits, Nenner‘s cycles show the global economy for the coming months is stronger than people think. While his cycles top in April and show some weakness in May-June, stocks may not drop much until after the final peak around August 2010.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 12:15 | 365856 Marley
Marley's picture

Annnnnd... it's lunch time.  Bubble machine off.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:22 | 365609 pauldia
pauldia's picture

What may be  around the corner??????

 

First……..from Yahoo…” Geithner will "meet with European officials to discuss the economic situation in the region and the measures being taken to restore global confidence and financial stability and to promote global recovery.” In addition, this will be on the heels of Hillary Clinton meeting with our Sugar Daddy in Beijing, and Black hawk Ben will be in attendance. Next, Tiny Tim, not referring to “Tiptoe in the Tulips”, but, rather the new airport scanner indicator, will meet with Trichet, the British P.M. and Wolfgang “Puck You” Schaeuble in  Berlin. Does this set the table for the upcoming G20 in June? Sooooooo. What’ the Jean Dixon take on this??  The only solution, a new worldwide monetary system, a massive unified devaluation! That is the only real solution folks. Shock and AwShucks, asset prices will go like the balloon boy never did. Will this definitely occur, only the shadow banksters know, but this schmuck with a laptop doesn’t see anything else but devastating deflation, and more importantly election defeats if devaluation does not happen. And you thought ACORN was only election fraudster, these guys will have the whole world registering as Dems. When? Sooner than I thought as events are moving in the HOV lane only.

 

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:32 | 365632 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 What or who will be the winners in that type of situation?

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:04 | 365685 inflation.stude...
inflation.studentloan--0's picture

it's good news for cocaine sellers and prostitutes in that city.

ergo, green shoots.  ergo, world economy recovers.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:33 | 365616 godfader
godfader's picture

Gotta love Rosie and his Shiller normalized PE non-sense. Good luck trading on that.  If trading was as easy as looking at some fair value metric then why is this guy writing newsletters for a bank instead of running a multi-billion dollar hedge fund?

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:17 | 365721 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

So I guess that makes two of you not running multi-billion dollar hedge funds?

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:31 | 365626 Popo
Popo's picture

Fair value at 900-950 is generous.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:32 | 365630 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

I think we are seeing the manipulation easy button losing it's effectiveness.  They are still pressing the button, but it isn't working like it used to.

http://hiddentrails.com/america-south/chile/images/easter-island-moai6_0...

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:35 | 365633 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

 

Looks like we got us a sow here 'stead of a boar..

chasing falling daggers in commodities now, reminds me of 2008 chasing banks as they fell then getting out. new positions leak then get out; etc etc

 

a deep correction should be coming

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:40 | 365646 Marley
Marley's picture

eeeewwwwwwww.  You didn't even throw Pig Farmers the obligatory apology for the comparision.  Pig Farming is a honorable profession.  Some of my best friends are Pig Farmers.  Those prop traders are no Pig Farmers.  Better be looking over your shoulder tonight as you're out trolling the dark streets looking to score some loose pig fat.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:05 | 365689 inflation.stude...
inflation.studentloan--0's picture

what about calling them PIIG farmers?

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 12:10 | 365862 Marley
Marley's picture

Sorry, I'm just being an ass.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:41 | 365649 Invisible Hand
Invisible Hand's picture

Good article. Thanks, ZH, for giving us little guys access to info like this.

Bye-the-bye, looks like we are getting a bounce today on everything.  Wish I had enough knowledge to trade. However, I think the old saying about elephants fighting (the grass gets trampled) may apply here.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:51 | 365664 bruce wayne
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You can sign up to get Rosenberg's letters in your email inbox.  Just visit Gluskin Sheff's website.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:46 | 365654 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

I'm getting ADHD from watching the DOW ticker. Jumping from positive to negative like crazy. Can you feel the downward pressure?

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 10:49 | 365659 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

I can't feel the downward pressure, but I sure can see Binkie Ben slamming a big red button on his desk over and over and screaming, "There is no plan B! There is no plan B!"

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:08 | 365697 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

As I said last night, I would sell my SDS position at the open if we were at or below the flash crash low. So I did. Now I'm 100% cash. I think this bounce, probably on Monday, will take us back to the 200 dma. That is where I go long SDS again. Til then, just watching the show and working my real job.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:16 | 365717 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

I thought this was your real job.....

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:19 | 365728 doggings
doggings's picture

whats your real job Harry?

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:32 | 365754 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Partner in a very small firm that focuses on financial advice regarding CRE investments. Which is why on a macro scale I was so pumped by what I was hearing on my recent client visits. It had changed substantially. But, reality in the equities markets, which I trade on my dime, forced me to change my personal position as I did the other day.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:58 | 365832 doggings
doggings's picture

no worries and good luck to you dude.

takes a bigger man to say I was wrong on this, now I see, than go on and on beating the dead horse as others do on here.

 

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 12:03 | 365842 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Interestingly enough, I see that the IYR short squeeze is back on again today.  Does anyone actually expect that garbage to be worth anything a year from now?

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 12:56 | 365964 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Harry, not that you care, but my issue with you is not that you aren't right; sometimes even most of the time to be generous.  It's that you don't see the larger picture.  Even if you are right about the numbers, so what?  You just made out like a bandit on AAPL, woohoo.  How does that affect the income disparities at a macro level, seething public anger, loss of faith in the full faith and credit clause, the social instabilities we are witnessing bloom across the globe that historically trend toward violence/warfare/totalitarianism, the fact that hyperinflation and default are the only possible outcomes to the games being played by the CBs with monetary policy, or the general upswing in mother nature's pissedoffedness?

Can you not see the larger scope of events?  Do you think this all ends well?  Seriously, where do you see the world in 5/10/20 years?  I would like to know.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:12 | 365706 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

10,060 floor? says the market? we can mince points back and forth... but, it is. What it is.

You can Junk me all day every day but the FACTS!! are the Facts!

buy! Buy! BUY!

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:53 | 365813 Bananamerican
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"I was so pumped by what I was hearing on my recent client visits."

"we are leveraging new branding strategies with our realtime scalable investment solution synergies in strip malls"

Sat, 05/22/2010 - 14:37 | 367784 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

You should be pushing private offerings into the 6% to 8% cap range... you would make a killing out there! Those $100k slices would be burning up the printers!

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:12 | 365707 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

Dude, I love this stuff. I love seeing the USD drop as every other currency plus equities bounce. I love knowing that the dollars being used to purchase other assets is monetized from the fed, exchanged for useless assets in europe through a swap. and I love knowing that this money will eventually destroy the value of the little accumulated wealth I have. I love these freaking markets!!!

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:14 | 365711 Bryan
Bryan's picture

A normalized P/E at 900-950?  What about Nic's 'fair value' estimate at 380?  Who is right?

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:52 | 365819 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Neither. Nobody is ever right in this game. haha.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 13:54 | 366108 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Well, I guess that's my point.  We get all these predictions and then have to sort through which ones to believe or not.  In the end, no one really knows, and it's all a crap shoot.  Making numeric predictions is just barking at the moon.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:15 | 365713 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

Equities will be worth buying, when utter revulsion is the predominant attitude towards them. We are nowhere near that point. If I don't get the chance to buy large cap high quality franchises on single digit multiples, I'll be astonished. And thats with the earnings actually growing at trend rates, not cyclically depressed. A true bull market can only begin once this has happened. All we can say for sure right now is that the future is the opposite of bright, and that big government is groping in the dark everywhere. Make sure they don't grope too close to you and get their hands on your wallet.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:50 | 365817 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

I concur 100%. The ONLY time I go back into equities are under the conditions you stated, PLUS I want to see a 5% ++ dividend yield on some big names.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:16 | 365714 gtown2007
gtown2007's picture

love rosenberg's "breakfast" commentary.  he's certainly getting a little vindication over the last week or two.

found this story at http://wallstbeat.com/ nice digg-like frontpage for news / discussion

 

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:21 | 365725 Noah Vail
Noah Vail's picture

Its nice to know that all is well in hand and that we can now go back to biz as usual. Just a wee bit of a correction. I always take good advice from people who are selling stuff. After all, they are the xperts.

 

BTW, love today's volume, need microscope and tweezers to see it.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 11:21 | 365733 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Don't forget the good Q1 numbers where company spending.

Q2 will be A LOT LESS!

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 12:29 | 365904 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And it all assumes drunken casino style gambling behavior unchanged from the 'retail investor', who is now deciding whether or not to splurge and cut up 2 hot dogs into the Ramen noodles for lunch. Funny how the market gurus are only about numbers and FIBonaci waves and never consider that america is being actively 3rd worlded by a Marxist regime. Risk off!

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