Rosenberg On Why "Things Are Getting Interesting" And What Is Ailing The Market

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Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:14 | 1365174 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

buy the dip?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:23 | 1365196 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

crash to 10k, initiate QE3

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:25 | 1365203 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes and 'initiate QE3' this time much to everyones surprise will be the Treasury seizing all 401K's and pensions due to 'unforeseen extreme national emergency'...and what will anyone do about it? Nothin.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:25 | 1365571 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Don't be ridiculous. That would ensure Obama's defeat in 2012. No way he gets past that. So, therefore, it won't happen.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 17:15 | 1365666 ping
ping's picture

"...and we've just got this breaking news in the studio... President Obama has single handedly foiled a hijacking attempt on Airforce One, whilst it was carrying 100 orphans to Disneyland..."

"Well Bob, this can only increase his numbers before next month's vote - and especially after his bold decision to tackle teaching union terrorism, and once and for all stop them from mailing anthrax to bunnies, baby seals, and wherever your elderly mom lives."

"Sanda, I'd blow him myself, but the guy's just too darn classy." [Various hoots, cheers and 'woot-woots!' off camera.]  

"Coming up after the commercial: one plucky Detroit mom has come up with a smart way to make her Soylent Green ration go that little bit further!"

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 22:00 | 1366599 ImNotARobot
ImNotARobot's picture

I totally agree.  As far as I'm concerned, everything will remain "ok" until at least after the general election in 2012.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:39 | 1365240 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Nail on the head. Where's them Dow 10,000 Baseball hats?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:28 | 1365378 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

This screen name was the first one i used on AOL (remember them?) in the 1990's. People laughed at me...10,000 by the year 2000? March 29, 1999 print close was 10,007. 10kby2k11.58 (July 31)? I can't predict the date, but we will see 10K again printed (in real dollar terms we already are below 10K)

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:54 | 1365286 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Would hold my chips here if market timing is important to you. If on the other hand you're looking for the longer haul then buying on the way down is always a tasty proposition.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:15 | 1365176 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

EE PM raid in progress!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:28 | 1365199 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Um, no.

Not that EE raids exist in the first place anyway. Unless of course youre ready to admit there were EE raids which pushed it up to $50 in a heartbeat.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:36 | 1365239 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, actually.  Or rather, the opposite.  The EE disappeared, allowing the price to rise to $50, then slamming it to attempt to form a generational double top.

Look for increasing volatility with a downward trend, and increasing decoupling of the price of physical from the paper price.  Odds still looking good for a COMEX implosion by the end of July.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:41 | 1365258 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Pretty good slamming of the PMs indeed!

One thing I like about your comments tmosley, is that you are better connected with the short term than the lonely Bearing who has no buddies around interested in PMs, etc.

OK, you walked the plank and made a prediction!  We'll all be watching, ESPECIALLY the decoupling of paper vs. physical.

The next couple of months may be a the last good opportunity to buy up the PMs, especially if YOU DO NOT OWN THEM NOW.

All aboard!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:10 | 1365338 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

I think most of us are now resolute with the knowledge that the PM's can and will be steamrolled at will. Buy physical only now, and with money that is in excess of your core needs. Partake of Jamie's/Blythe's sourcream party dip with only un-leveraged fiat. QE3 will be used for jackhammering the PM complex . Expect robust physical shortages, obese premiums, and disinterested physical sellers. JP's shorts increasing again, and they've got the nuts of those on who rely on the compliance of those on the foodstamp program. All hail the Morgue until the maelstrom arrives.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:09 | 1365350 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Agree to an extend regarding QE3 and PMs, but FYI, JPM actually benefited quite heavily from the move higher in commodities; silver included.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:26 | 1365411 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

No doubt! On the way up and down. Volatility/Margin shaking out many small and mid-sized players. 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:40 | 1365451 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

An easy way to see some premiums (but the widget is quite imperfect) is at 24hgold.com at the very bottom of their home page.  (Note the "h" in there at 24hgold.com)

Their widget is a JV with eBay and shows current paper gold price vs. eBay asking price for both gold and silver coins.

Gold Eagles typically have been running 6% - 11% over spot.  Silver Eagles 15% - 25%.  The premiums seem to vary without rhyme or reason, but it is EASY to check, and if/when the physical starts getting scarce, you can follow premiums there.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 18:51 | 1366112 trav7777
trav7777's picture

eff that...just go to golddealer.com

There is no disconnect between paper and physical, despite mosely-claven's losing 1/2 of his entire life's savings in the silver bubble

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:11 | 1365334 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

??

I was looking for your [sarc] comment but after re-reading your post a few times i haven't found it. You seriously believe the EE would have simply allowed the escalator up to $50, no big deal, and only THEN wake up, some 100% higher on the year, saying enough is enough at that point?

By that train of thought, why not drop it to $10/oz since the silver futures market is indeed very illiquid and not much money (as we've seen) can move it quite heavily.

Some big players did indeed allow (read: moved) the silver price to reach the near $50 highs. This is clearly evidenced not only by this occuring in too quick of a move (not a solid step higher/correction/step higher etc., as we'd like to see in a bull market) but also due to it being during a very, to say the least, awkward moment in the markets as it was Easter weekend, so even lower market depth than usual. Im afraid this isn't simply an observation on my behalf but true facts. I can also confirm the most heavily involved commodity desk (not hard to guess who) was also partially responsible and reaped large profits in this move.

We're in agreement on your penultimate point. Vol has just started to increase, and the trend is indeed down. Ive been looking at a 200DMA test as my own 'prediction' though prediciting is a fool's game, so ill still be happy with a retest around the $32s area.

I dont believe the COMEX will ever implode as that would signify the end game for the massive amount of commissions and fees available to the PBs and all major banks involved with a commodity desk. Simply no other exchange as liquid as the COMEX, so TPBT won't let this happen. On that thought, perhaps its wiser to say TPTB are heavily involved in the commodity markets. But an EE reminds me too much of fiction, such as Star Wars.

Holding SLV puts here for full disclosure, as i have ever since the $40s (that hurt, at first) and then $45s.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:30 | 1365394 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The lower it goes, the more physical they have to deliver.  This is a classic rock and a hard place dilemma for them.

The point of all this is to try to shake out the open interest.  Don't pay so much attention to the price.  That is not important at this point.  All that matters is the OI, and the inventory.  Panicking into or out of the silver market based on price fluctuations is only going to bankrupt you.  Just watch the inventories and the OI.

And yes, the COMEX will implode, just like Lehman Bros did.  They will be bailed out, and paper will be allowed to be delivered en masse.  But that is still a default.  No amount of "earned" "money" can stop that.  Those who seek actual physical silver at known prices, and those who have actual, physical silver to hedge will simply be forced to move elsewhere.  The HKMEx is likely to start trading silver soon enough, and the higher price and physical availability will drive the hedgers and the users there, respectively.  We should see some real fireworks then, as the speculators are FORCED to follow (as they will have no-one to sell their contracts to at the end of the front month).  Already we are seeing arb opportunities on the gold contract that aren't being closed.  There is a reason for this.

SLV puts are good, because SLV is a fraud vehicle, and your puts will not be harmed by their bankruptcy, where COMEX put options would be destroyed by a COMEX bust, though there is still risk.  Short SLV, long physical metal is good as well.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:37 | 1365602 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Used to watch OI a lot more 'religiously', moreso when wanting to hold size, but realized after a bit its very cyclical as well. 

As for COMEX implosion (haven't seen you pin a date, i suppose July is your closest approximation), ever since i started following the whole farcical "it will implode!!!1" comments ive seen people change the month of implosion from, oh, say, Jan 2010 and every month following. If the theory read online is correct regarding amount delivarable, OI, and how cash settlement is affected in between, then perhaps, in theory, it might default. But as i explained above, TPTB have too much at stake to allow this, so perhaps my pessimist towards this whole idea of a default.

Short SLV (for a little while longer IMO) and then always long physical-->you bet. Not against any proven facts such as dollar printing and consequent devaluation. But by that same token, prefer gold tons more.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:54 | 1365643 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I have no doubt that OI is cyclical.  But inventories aren't.  You need both to tell the full story.

The COMEX almost collapsed in 2008.  The recent scare started in December, when the COMEX did, in fact, default, as contracts began being served as shares of SLV or cash rather than delivery of physical silver.  We have had defaults of this type on every delivery month since.  It can't last.  

This is NOT normal, and anyone who tells you it is is incompetent, a liar, or both.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 18:50 | 1366118 trav7777
trav7777's picture

so, IOW, they are indistinguishable from you.

Your shameless pumping cost gullible rubes thousands, man.  How can you live with yourself?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 19:33 | 1366226 jackinrichmond
jackinrichmond's picture

the lbma had a 'failure to deliver' with nickel back in the 90's.   it's worth googling that story if you want to get an idea what happens when commodity exchanges default.  

the story indicated that there were unusually wild price swings and interventions prior to the collapse.   the story reads a bit like the current silver story.

if it happened at the lbma, it could happen at the comex.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 19:53 | 1366264 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Comex Implosion: September 11 2011

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:41 | 1365608 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

dp

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 18:46 | 1366105 trav7777
trav7777's picture

ROTFL...it's only "manipulation" when it's going down.  You dumbass

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:24 | 1365200 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

dp

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:39 | 1365253 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

You "Turdites" are looking more and more foolish by the day; following a guy named Turd was dumb enough in the first place, following him like he actually has a clue could be fatal.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:25 | 1365408 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You do realize that silver is up almost double from when he started that blog, right?  And that is just spot.  Physical premiums are quite a bit higher as well.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 18:51 | 1366120 trav7777
trav7777's picture

no, they aren't.  Physical premiums are not markedly different than before the bubbly runup that you conned everybody to buy into "with both hands."

49 by the end of last month and 60 by next week?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 17:54 | 1365956 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

I will join them. Long some SLV puts.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:20 | 1365179 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And on top of all that, world war nuclear exchanges are about to commence! 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:19 | 1365184 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Thats good news, radiation is bullish

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:15 | 1365359 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

My newly establish business should do just fine. I've recently opened up a cockroach breeding/protein bar manufacturing center.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 16:04 | 1365661 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

bullish, as long as the government keeps doubling the legal limit every few days....

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:19 | 1365186 anony
anony's picture

I think it's awesome, remarkable, and halleluia happy that a trillion dollars leaked out of the market the last 6 weeks and yet my life hasn't changed one iota. Nor has anyone's I know.

Maybe all these trillions aren't so important after all.

 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:21 | 1365191 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, where did that trillion go? Not to me or anyone I know, thats for damn sure.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:18 | 1365372 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

Sheeps, are you an ingrate!?

Part of it went to keeping the illusion alive for my buddies, another portion went to suppression of Au so I could purchase it while it still is avail (thanks TPTF), and a small amount went to my cousins in Europe who got to take their 6 week vacation.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:25 | 1365392 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

Deflation for Wall Street? ;)

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:37 | 1365232 Greeny
Greeny's picture

" halleluia happy" - enjoy tanking Silver and Gold

as well.. What are you happy about? This correction

will end up soon. Keep hiding under the rock.

 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:23 | 1365188 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Consumer retail stawks rolling over? No that cant be! Just last week RoboTrader was hella pumping and bragging about them!

When markets continue down and at some point have a big dump along the way, the answer will be seizing 401K's and pensions. Mom and pops comfy retirement at The Villages is cancelled.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:26 | 1365208 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Consumer retail stawks rolling over

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__VQX2Xn7tI

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:44 | 1365256 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Brother Cdad has officially outed himself as an old fart.

Welcome to the club. Please stop by the front office to sign in and pick up your secret decoder ring. This week's password is "fiat".

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:46 | 1365273 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Does that include those of us old guys in the Tinfoil Hat Brigade (Lunatic Fringe Battalion as chosen by the readers at my blog)?

I heard from a Superior today.  She told me to use the Force.  OK...

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:02 | 1365304 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The only requirement for "old fart" membership is a degraded mental capacity, a propensity to fondly remember songs from the 1970's or earlier and plenty of natural gas. Tin foil is optional, but most definitely not discouraged. :>)

No open flames please. Only you can prevent natural gas explosions.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:07 | 1365344 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Montrose - "Paper Money"  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=580GyjDTlc8

 

I play the game of a rich boy,
I buy everything I can.
My bankroll is a foot thick,
I'm a wealthy man.
A million dollar reserve note is right there in my hand
And I can't stand to think...it's all that I've got.
Take away all my silver
Take away all my gold
And hand me a stack of paper
Paper money don't hold. Paper money don't hold.
Well, you act as though you don't remember
The way it all used to be.
Now one man, he locks up the money
Another man holds the key.
My car cost me fifteen grand,
Some say I got a deal.
Melt it down, I've got a thousand pounds of junk
And ten dollars worth of steel.

 

 - Did I win?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:50 | 1365479 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

A guy I knew in HS actually tried that, lighting one up.  Yes, they are flammable, he singed himself pretty well...

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:20 | 1365566 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thank God the vast majority of us survive(d) our teen years more or less intact.

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