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Rosie On $2,600 Gold
Rosie makes the case for double gold, emphasizing foreign CB purchases and peak gold. And as the race for the currency bottom accelerates, Rosie discloses the production of global fiat currency "up by 150%" coupled with no incremental dollar production, he expects gold to explode. Also is somewhat skeptical on the dollar carry trade, which due to being the most crowded trade in the room, will likely not see an orderly unwind when such unwind finally occurs.
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I hope there's a pull back so I can load up before the next leg up.
Has anyone ever seen a carry unwind that WAS orderly? They are by their nature unstable.
Interesting...
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/12/gold-comex-and-exchange-for-physical.html
Hope Zero Hedge has sent Rosie a complementary Gold Mug...!
:-)
Funny guy.
Dave is the wind beneath my wings...or paws.
Soooooo, what is the LEAST crowded trade in the room?
What would be the reverse carry trade? Long US$???
Flattering fucktards.
Giving peace prizes to military commander in chief.
Saying bernanke is brilliant.
Walking around behind Al Gore and saying Mr. Durpedurp is scientificial. What a brilliant scientist he is.
He is only NOW getting it?
Good news is, he isn't too late, but he sure missed the boat up until now.
Did he not see the March 18th Fed decision or something?
In that gold reserve chart, Do they include house hod gold as well?
Apart from assorted caveats in his various missives, Rosie has been dead wrong on equities since the March lows. His new shop (Gluskin) has had some good strategies that have proved to be quite lucrative and which he has included in some of his notes. But the core message from Rosie has been uber bearish on equities.
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Last time I checked, equities weren't the only asset class out there.
For all of 2009, Rosie has been long commodites, corporate bonds and CAD (aka assets that have have demonstrated long-term secular strength over the past 8 months). I'm pretty sure those 3 asset classes have done ok this year..
if only he gave as much coverage to those three has he has given to equities - it would seem to me that when he has recommended bonds etc., it has (for the most part) been in the context of Gluskin's overall strategies - (sort of like a cub broker advising a prospective client on where to invest)
Sadly when I see, read or hear Rosie I can't help but think of Abby
Rosie is a honorable man of great integrity and I love the guy, but from his new Canadian digs, with so much ore in the ground and so dependent on the natural resources play, I would be unsurprised if he were talking the Gluskin book...not that there's anything wrong with that.
Gold is a special case expressing lack of confidence in paper money. But why is everyone so bullish on other industrial commodities. Didn't the bull case used to be about global growth? Given that we don't buy into the decoupling arguement anymore and "tepid" (at best) US growth, where is the demand coming from in the real world? I'm confused....
Is Rosie ever right? How long has the guy been calling for corrections in a bearish manner? I'm just saying...
Umm -- seems like there was a fairly meaningful correction sometime in the last few years. I'm trying to remember it.... Oh, yeah, seems to me there was one in the 2007-2008 time period that Rosie called.
So if gold goes to $2,600, what happens to copper?
It's been kicking the crap out of gold since march.
Alas poor Rosie, not you too?
$1300 gold, $2300 gold, $5000 gold,
$50,000 gold in the long term. Hmmm.
We heard similar mania pronouncements
at the Jan 1980 gold peak, 2007 stock peak
and 2008 oil peak.
Then it was all over but the blaming, crying,
margin calls and Hunt repos.
Tell China about the peak in gold production.
As number one gold producer they keep
most of what they produce. Russia similar.
India long bought 800 tonnes of gold a year.
200 tonnes not a doubling.
USA still with the largest gold reserves unless
you believe in Goldfinger.
The hinge trade may be the gullible frightened
ETF retail buyer about to be sheared by hedge
fund pump and dump operators. ETF and Exhange
gold buyers may soon wake up to find they have
no gold, no market and no money; only broken promises.
$69 T in currency liquidity and $605 T in
Derivatives chasing less than $6 T in physical
gold ever mined a certain recipe for disaster for those
jumping into gold now abandoning all hope, the
ultimate risk trade.
Unlikely to happen with people who appreciate
liqudity and safety, or as Will Rogers said,
return of my principal.
We were buying precious coins in the Fifties.
This quacks like another blowoff.
We've seen several.
More likely the last bubble for a long-time
before people come to their senses and
realize what's left of the US economy is as
big as the EU and as big as China, Japan, India
combined, plus USA better bio, EMP, hardware,
satellite software weapons and delivery systems
with more freedoms to produce and prosper.
If gold is in fact becoming defacto currency,
gold goes up while all other asset bubbles deflate,
including bonds, commodities and economies,
because the price of gold is the real rate of interest.
And usury is the snake swallowing the globe.
Why would neoKeynesian China trash $2.273 T
of forex reserves to get into a prison cell with
no escape but organ harvest?
Maybe 0 asked India for a loan.
The emperor has no gold? Pooh bah.
This appears more a Nathan Rothschild Waterloo
bluff to grab dollars and trigger cash settlements
at exchanges ahead of people waking up to
the enormous drop in liquidity BB and the markets
effected while we were hypnotised by golden glitter.
Note Rosie alluded as much with the carry trade
unwinding short-term, where most live.
When markets crash, it can take a long time to
recover.
Ignoring fundamental odds and playing
momentum hunches always ends badly.
Remindful of an all-night poker game at Harry's...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1336090735&play=1
I'm guessing that if you don't have physical gold in your hand (or safe) then what you've got is a certificate to fiat / fractional gold (gold that doesn't really exist).
Empty words printed on a piece of paper don't glitter.
Fractional = Fictional
Yes, we should give gold miners, extra, extra, super profit
of over US $2300 per ounce just because that is going to bring unemployment down and we believe gold is an asset we can put it on the table and have it for breakfast.
Gold is an asset only for the human work being put in its extraction + reasonable profit. Otherwise we will run into situation that all other human work ever produced needs to be double produced in parallel with the cost of the production of gold + 100 X reasonable profit.
Yes, we can make gold miners extra rich, while we are searching for the job.
$1220 has been breached, bitchez...
There's no real breaching. There's no chance to fight till 1366.
Hey,
What is the source of your number? Is it some kind of top chanel from a chart?
Wish I knew. Someone somewhere posted a chart of the "real" breakpoints. I just remember some of the numbers. 1168 was one. and it got blown to bits but you could see the fight. 1366 is the next real one and something like 1724 after that. 1724 would hold for months if it was allowed to be the battle line but by the time we get to it. It'll be anthropology poo. As reality line has been 1366 since summer and we are just now getting around to it. It has something to do with propogation delay of conciousness.
The market hasn't even started chasing gold and gold stocks. Just wait for the liquidity to move from the industrial and tech sector into the value of last resort.
You ain't seen nothing yet and even Rosie's estimations are very prudish.
Gold $5000 is when the race to the top begins.
CNBC is touting gold???
Crap, just when the party was getting started, the near term top is in.
What if we are down the rabbit hole, friend, and it is a whole new world?
I'm not saying this is true, sure is a heck of an ascent, as in, this ain't normal, but nothing is normal about this situation.
Nothing.
Could it be different this time my dear? Sure ... it would be foolish to profess that I know the future.
However... I got into gold in early '04 ... I've seen run ups and felt the pain of pullbacks. Could the shorts be over run this time? ... maybe? ... maybe someday they will. We've had a pretty strong run up lately and it could continue for a few more weeks but make no doubt ... there will be a test of the 200dma again.
The 'bulls' job is to wear you out or scare you out. Just like in the rodeo the bull will try to throw you ... don't let it happen. This bull ride will go on much, much longer ... grab it by the horns and hang on!
$1224.20
The number changed as I was typing, heh, heh. I will hold on. I was a loser on silver last year. I have made almost all of it back, finally. I don't have your time in, but I am learning...
Good luck.
If you make a bad entry point, remember, the bull will bail you out. Gawd knows I made some poor calls .... but while the bull remains intact ... the trend is your friend.
It becomes euphoric when it is rising ... funny though, after awhile you start hoping for pullbacks so you can buy more .... ;o)
Gold will hit $2000 when and only when J. Aron & co. has purchased a ridiculous quantity of call options.
agreed walkure... we all seem to forget inflation-adjusted 1980 Au high ($850 then) now $7400 or so according to john williams/shadowstats (btw must read his current hypoerinflation report).
todays sheissesturm incomparably worse than 1980. so hold steady, we barely have ignition on this thing. sheeple wont wake up for a while yet....
parabellum
People talk about the "high" as if it was a great moment for gold investors. How many managed to get out at "the high".
Answer: Very, very few.
GS is behind the gold run up similar to oil last year, so no telling how far it could go. Will it end the same way? I doubt it. But gold has a great story just like oil did in summer 2008; a perfect set-up for GS. Last year peak oil, this year peak gold. Looking at futures, GDX looks to be a good short tomorrow after the normal morning run up.
Am getting tired of those darn DOLLARBUGS who keep saying how great their investment in dollars are, when for the past 6+ generations the USD has lost over 90% of its purchasing power. ZeroHedge needs to stop with all this dollar this and dollar that articles.
Anyone who actually believes the US FIAT currency is going up -- actually it is debt called a Federal Reserve Note -- must be financially suicidal.
Gold IS money.
i think gold expressed in non USD is a far better trade
expressing scepticism on the dollar carry trade is very easy ....almost lazy, the JPY funded carry trade will make a comeback as soon as JPY libor < USD libor .... which is soon
I'm pretty clueless about Libor stuff but looked up the rates here http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/jpylib.shtml
JPY Libor 12mo 0.70%
USD Libor 12mo 1.00%
Would you elaborate? Cheers.
ok prechter,
you said gold was going to 600.
you cost me a bundle buddy. i want some of your ass....:)
heh heh + 1
In what would be considered by most on this site an act of pure folly, I'll be emptying the last offshore SD box around this level, having held it since '99. Sure it's awfully pretty, but so is Tiger's wife, and it seems she wasn't quite good enough. At current prices, the world's gold is valued at about 10% of the entire yearly contribution of the work of every man, woman and child on the face of the Earth. I don't know if that's too high or not, but it sure seems "good looks" is beginning to get some asset classes a touch more than they might deserve.
As for it being "peak gold", I've just seen an isolated, malaria invested backwater of the world, which quite recently was inhabited by a few obscure ethnic minorities with odd, unwritten languages, just increase it population by a factor of a hundred in the '09 version of the 49'ers. Good sized nuggets, too. Just wish the hordes of Chinese joining this party weren't using all that cyanide and mercury to do the same job. Makes the fish all jittery.
I dunno ..
Where is the smart money going?
The trade everyone is making is the short- dollar trade. The ad campaign is the ZIRP, deficits, supply, fiat weakness, etc. What is the trade? Short dollar, long everything else; gold, equities, bonds of all kinds, developing nations stocks, etc. Who is pushing it? Whoever is on the other side of the trade: the Fed, central banks, Treasury, Goldman- Sachs ... that ought to give pause right there. Why? To launder illiquid securities of all kinds into cash. The Fed is doing this? Yea, the insiders are cashing out, the rats are abandoning the sinking ship of finance. The name of the game is deflation.
Where is the smart money going again?
Out of equities, bonds, developing nations, etc. Pumping equities higher is so easy and makes the process work, laundering worthless securities into newly printed dollars. When everyone hate dollars, that means the smart money is busy collecting them. That is why there is a liquidity trap. The banks' reserves in Fed custody are probably just bank IOU's.
Gold is just a head fake ...
They will levitate the market until the fed chairman is confirmed
They will levitate the market to stimulate holiday shopping
They will levitate the market to promote health care
They will levitate the market through 12/31 to help pension funds
They will levitate the market to provide the appearance of expected inflation
The market is political since there is an election mid 2010, and world domination is on the line for world bankers - this congress is their best chance to hand over US self rule and wealth through their cap & trade global governance (tax) structure to the UN.
It looks like gold over $1227 has become unstoppable. It just keeps going, like the energizer bunny, and could well reach what Rosie projects given some time.
But the risk is high because a lot is dependent on the U.S. dollar. But as long as the trend continues, there is money to be made. Time will tell.
admin
http://invetrics.com
But what happens to precious metals when the USD rallies when equities resume their downtrend ?
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
You crossed the red flags Rosie, you never mention 'fiat currency' on the major MSM show, because people can start asking inconvenient questions like "what is fiat currency" or (OMG, no!) fractional reserve banking system or excessive credit growth, all they need to hear - "supply is tight, demand is strong" or vice versa.