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Rosie On Gold Redux

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Rosie brushes off the WSJ's allegations that gold is nothing but a ponzi, and explains why despite a prevailing (currently) deflationary environment, savers throughout the world have forced global gold dealers to run out of inventory. "It is a reflection of investor concern over the monetary stability, and Ben Bernanke and other central bankers only have to step on the printing presses whereas gold miners have to drill over two miles into the ground." - pretty simple really. Everything else is just obfuscation.

We receive emails all the time asking how gold fits into our deflation view. Well, for one, the widespread consensus that gold is an effective inflation hedge is not on the mark. Our statistical analysis shows there to be a fairly loose link even if gold is a store of value. We also know that in the deflationary 1930s, the Sterling price of gold doubled. Gold is also a hedge against financial instability and when the world is awash with over $200 trillion of household, corporate and government liabilities, deflation works against debt servicing capabilities and calls into question the integrity of the global financial system. This is why gold has so much allure today. It is a reflection of investor concern over the monetary stability, and Ben Bernanke and other central bankers only have to step on the printing presses whereas gold miners have to drill over two miles into the ground.

The bottom line is that gold makes up a mere 0.05% share of global household net worth (see page 22 of the FT) and so small incremental allocations into bullion or gold-type investments can exert a dramatic impact. Gold cannot be printed by central banks and is a monetary metal that is no government’s liability. It is malleable and its supply curve is inelastic over the intermediate term. And central banks, who were selling during the higher interest rate times of the 1980s and 1990s, are now reallocating their FX reserves towards gold, especially in Asia.

Gold is in a secular bull market, actually it has been for over a decade and double from where we are today, in my view, it’s a very easy call. And, if inflation is really the be all that ends all for the gold price, then keep in mind that gold has rallied five-fold since 1999 and yet inflation is the same today as it was then and the core rate has been cut in half. Go figure. Maybe the bottom in gold prices occurred at the same time that global production peaked — maybe it is a bull market rooted in little more than a shifting supply curve.

The biggest problem with gold, however, that Rosie so blatantly ignores, is you can't eat the damn thing. What the hell are you supposed to do with a monetary equivalent you can't eat?

 


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Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:33 | Link to Comment monmick
monmick's picture

And even better, it comes out the other end intact! So you can eat it repeatedly...

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Double down
Double down's picture

You mean the way Benny eats UST?

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:23 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

That's funny!

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Well I know that you can drink it!

http://www.comparestoreprices.co.uk/images/unbranded/g/unbranded-goldsch...

Not to mention ORMUS, which is a little fringe, but perhaps pertinent to the ingestion question I suppose. 

http://www.subtleenergies.com/ormus/index.htm

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 15:52 | Link to Comment DiverCity
DiverCity's picture

Now THAT is funny!

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Pimp Juice
Pimp Juice's picture

That may be an interesting way to transport gold accross borders......of course salvaging it might be a bit messy. Merde, alors!

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

As predicted earlier, gold is getting taken to the woodshed in the hopes of creating a $50 or so downdraft to paint the tape and buy more time for paper assets.

 


Let's see:

1) Have WSJ run hit piece on gold the day before the "big" jobs report

2) Issue some insane, census and b/d model-adjusted jobs number

3) Try to scare out weak longs and give cover for JPM and GS to establish new shorts

4) Crash gold market back well below 1200

5) Create impression "seasonality" has kicked in so that more selling ensues

6) Ultimately drive gold back down toward 1100 to buy more time for paper assets

 

This is their plan. Will it work? 

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:43 | Link to Comment etrader
etrader's picture

Speaking of Woodshed....

Is that where Erin "needs to work on her tan lines b-cups" Burnett will end up after her little Tigers spat with Haines.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xc2xs7POefg&feature=player_embedded

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Strider52
Strider52's picture

Erin Burnett and Mark Haines kept teasing this morning that they were going to compare "Gold vs. Toilet Paper". They finally got around to it, with two pundits, one saying, to the effect "you can't eat gold", while the other declaring it as a safe haven. Sheesh, I was almost late for work, and it was really disappointing. Two B-cups down.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Haines talking out of his ass on gold again....saying with the Euro getting pounded why is gold "only up 4%"? Hey dummy...check it out in Euro terms (which is the OBVIOUS point he missed).....up 30% this year dingbat.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:08 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

After a short pause in  buying, I will go back and buy some more.  6% seems a little low for me (percent of my assets).

0.05% are owners of physical (non-jewelry I suppose) gold.  1/20 of 1% does not look like a bubble to me, what with 60% owning a house...

Gordon_Gekko is right.  There may not be much time to buy physical (at least Eagles).

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:35 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Ooops!

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:34 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

You're a smart man DoChen! (and a serial flatterer apparently... you're stealing my Mojo M.O.!)

If gold were such a ponzi as the WSJ suggests why did the biggest name (insider) in The Biz (Barrick Gold) dilute it's equity to raise billions to close out it's short position just awhile back... hmmm...

Wouldn't shorting even more make better sense? Bubble my ass!

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 15:25 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

My wife made me read a book recently called "Choosing Civility" (I guess she thinks I need some training in that department).  The book was actually pretty good.  I guess I recommend it as long as you can avoid the dreaded "pussy-whipped" judgement.

So, for the moment anyway, I am now trying to be more generous and civil.  Even/especially to the J Bravos...

What if we are right and gold DOES get to 50k?  Man, is that going to a party!

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 13:55 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I just went and bought some silver and they were all out of coins that weren't uncirculated or just crap. Gold seemed light on supply but fairly well stocked. Silver will crack open first.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 16:34 | Link to Comment nuinut
nuinut's picture

Of course it will work, Turd.

The cup and handle needs a little more shape in the handle.

A fifty dollar downdraft would be perfect, followed by a few days of upwardly biased consolidation, and then, off to the races.

 

This is only relevant, of course, if one owns no physical gold, and still has an interest in this 'illusory gold price'.

For the rest of us, it is purely there for entertainment purposes.

Pass the popcorn, please. 

 

And don't forget what's really going on, folks, "It's the Debt, Stupid"

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 16:52 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

FOFOA da man.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Double down
Double down's picture

Exactly.  A ramp up in terms of the price of gold is relative to the perceived stability of monetary policies and associated politics.  Gold is the financial system's blow out preventer. 

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

I have a hard time folding it in my wallet.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment sheeple
sheeple's picture

Actually, I would  prefer cigarette over gold =D

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:42 | Link to Comment GoldSilverDoc
GoldSilverDoc's picture

I just love to hear the complete, utter BS about "hoarders".  "Hoarding" means that I think you have more of something than I think you should have.  Nothing more.

But even so, is "stockpiling" (forward planning, contingency allocating, etc., etc. - all more politically palatable words for being a miser) a BAD thing when it comes to money?

Let's see.... the government prints NEW money.  That steals value from everybody else's money, lowering its purchasing power (remember, the dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power, probably more, since 1913). And this is a bad thing.

But when a "hoarder", or "miser", takes money (take your pick, whatever kind you want) out of circulation, and stuffs it in in his mattress, or safe, or buries it in the backyard...the circulating money supply goes.... DOWN.  Which, of course, means that the value of everybody elses money goes... UP. 

HOORAY for the misers.  HOORAY for the hoarders.  Thank you, thank you, thank you. 

Keep up the good work.

TAKE DELIVERY.  Keep your gold in your physical possession.

TAKE DELIVERY.  Keep your fiat CURRENCY in your physical possession.

REMOVE YOUR DEPOSITS FROM BANKSTERS.  Keep it in your physical possession.

And we will all be better off.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Gold is a store of wealth. You can't do anything with it other than horde it. That's like saying batteries are hording electricity. DUH.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

From The Dick Head Times - Goldman Sachs has been derided by financial officials for being a hoarder of paper stock certificates and paper currency and bonds.  "This hoarding mentality is really the crux of our financial problem," stated Dr. Richard Head of the Dick Head Times.  "Goldman, and primary dealers as a whole, have been gobbling up every treasury offering of the market and are sitting on it.  They won't let the US Dollar ponzi game reveal itself."

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 15:27 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That was very good Dick Head!  LOL!

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Double down
Double down's picture

Much like savings, ahhh, thrift we cannot have that.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:37 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I have physical gold and silver, in my possession.  I wouldn't consider any other way.

I only have a bank account to cash checks from clients that don't have gold or silver with which to pay.  I cash my checks, wait for the obligatory clearing period, then withdraw the cash, leaving a minor amount (<$100) for debit card purchasers when I don't have cash on me.

In this way, not only do I contribute (minorly, but something) to the downfall of the fiart currency system, I keep the venal and mendacious government embezzlement and extortion brigade guessing.  No bank accounts = no savings = I'm a broke fuck nigger and you'd better go hassle someone else.

Everyone needs to get smart, grow some balls, cash out their IRAs, close their bank accounts, and put it all into gold and silver.

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:40 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:51 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Yep, the hairier the better.

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Pimp Juice
Pimp Juice's picture

You're such a racist, Chumb. How dare you use the word fuck!

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Tips1
Tips1's picture

The proportion is suspicious...

 

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:43 | Link to Comment legerde
legerde's picture

As someone else said a few days ago....  Its our patriotic duty!

No joke.  The founders wanted small government and individual liberty.   As Greenspan so eloquently put it in July 1966, gold stands in the way of wealth confiscation/transfer in the welfare state.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:54 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Indeed, you're absolutely right.  Anyone who truly loves their country (and themselves for that matter) should immediately divest themselves of all savings denominated in FRN and put their wealth into something tangible.  It doesn't even have to be gold or silver (though you'd be a fool not to have some).  As long as your money is safe and isn't circulating around the toilet bowl that is this economy and the present financial system then you are doing your part as a true patriot.

Let's crash this bitch.

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 15:16 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I salute your sagacity and integrity, Chumba, and I have essentially followed in your footsteps regarding my bank accounts, cash and metals.  I refuse to play by the establishment's fiat Ponzi playbook.  Fuck 'em and feed 'em fish.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 15:31 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

++++ Chumba and akak!  YES to bring the system down sooner than later.

The slimy way gold is being held back, the .gov spending, the frauds are all forcing me to buy some more gold.  More silver and more platinum if I can find it.

Pt / Au ratio is now pretty good (historically) for Pt.

Oh.  And more ammo on the way home!

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 15:38 | Link to Comment George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

The revolution will not be televised.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 16:36 | Link to Comment nuinut
nuinut's picture

This bitch is crashing itself.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Moe Gamble
Moe Gamble's picture

I like land with good water, a herd of goats, and lots of solar panels.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 15:31 | Link to Comment fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

Chumba :

They don't allow to cash out IRA's or 401K easily.

Recently my request to cashout 457 deferred compensation was rejected.

only if we change jobs or retire at 65+ can we get this money at which time the value of money will be down. same issue with my 401K. I more than doubled my family's 401K during last 10 years due to some luck and timing.

 

If you have a better idea to cashout, let me know. My bank account usually has a few thousand, rest I move money to foreign country and buy Gold there or buy Gold in USA

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Devore
Devore's picture

"Hoarding"?

Surely you mean "buying and holding", no? I mean, you don't hear much about the stock and bond hoarders.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 15:36 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

"I just love to hear the complete, utter BS about "hoarders".  "Hoarding" means that I think you have more of something than I think you should have.  Nothing more."

 

BINGO!

Whenever one hears the words "hoarder" or "hoarding" being bandied about, one should realize that one is in the presence of an envious parasite and/or a potential would-be looter.

The accusation of "Hoarding" has NOTHING to do with financial matters, and everything to do with an authoritarian and confiscatory political agenda.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:54 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

Buiter of former FT Mavericon fame leveraged his old hit piece into the top econmic job at Citi -  ergo look for WSJ reporter to be joining the sell side

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Gunther
Gunther's picture

Inflation might not be the driver of gold but real interest rates are; even more so during an equity bear market.
The linked chart is a bit messy, but look at the seventies and early eighties when RI turned negative. To compare apples to apples, look at the green curve starting about 2000.
The reason to hold gold during periods of negative interest rates is obvious.
This leaves a lot of fuel for the current gold bull.

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/bond10_minus_cpi.png

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:21 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Gold and Silver taking a dump as we speak.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:30 | Link to Comment monmick
monmick's picture

What could the headline be:

"Gold down on profit taking"

"Gold crashes as economic outlook brightens"

"Missed call by first base umpire unnerves gold investors"

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

"Missed call by first base umpire" hahaha. I used to be a Cleveland sports fan, as I live in the suburbs of Cleveland, but let all Cleveland teams go like I did with stocks.  I don't know about you, but it seems as if every damn sport's record that has been broken have been directly related to Cleveland's team of schlubbs.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:33 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I may need to see my dealer today! ;-)

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:37 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Drugs or PM's?

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 13:20 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I did leave that kind of open, didn't I?

If you're a little buggy (gold buggy that is, not the horse drawn variety [don't think I don't know just how punny you can be]), is there a difference?

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:22 | Link to Comment 43 Steelie
43 Steelie's picture

I've never been long an asset that I've want to see fall in value so badly. I think the same can be said for most people here. 

It would take interest rates to ~5% by the end of the year for me to change my mind. Last I checked that is not happening anytime soon. 

 

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:39 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

5%?  You're cheap.

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Ted K
Ted K's picture

Oh ya, you have to work harder to get gold out of the ground.  That's why it's valuable.  I guess by Tyler's definition of value I should be buying hibernating bear futures and sewer rats.  I'll be back during the next crisis to tell you how that went.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:42 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

No, it's valuable because a vast majority of people in the world believe it to be.

You can't argue with 5,000 years of history.  Or you can, and look like an ass.

I'll be back during the next crisis to tell you how that went.

No you won't.  You'll have been eaten by a ravenous sewer rat.

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Maybe un your little world, sewer rats are the most marketable good but not it my world.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:43 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

The bottom line is that gold makes up a mere 0.05% share of global household net worth...

Wow.  I am so going to rule when TSHTF.

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 15:40 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

You said yourself that you will have your own country, be its High Potentate, and have a hard currency to boot.

Probably have lots of nice lookin' women knocking at your castle gates...

...

Depending on HOW TSHTF will determine my situation.  If it's Mad Max I may not make it (condo dweller), because I cannot produce enough food.  Barring that, I'll be just fine.

Not as well as you though, LOL.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 16:48 | Link to Comment nuinut
nuinut's picture

Probably have lots of nice lookin' women knocking at your castle gates...

hope so, for their sake.

he pours molten lead from the parapets on the ugly ones....

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:44 | Link to Comment doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

indeed the headline will be "gold decline as economy improves."  it turns out there was reason to be afraid--and obviously we're not talking Lehman which when you start to read the books that are flowing out now looks like they were doomed not by the markets but by just mere stupidity.  Having said that gold has been in bubbles before:  1980 comes to mind and there are many reasons to think now that Uncle Sam really does have a "no sweat" ability to fund 25 billion a day that "the sheeple" have run to the wrong safe haven FOR NOW.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 12:49 | Link to Comment sawyer
sawyer's picture

I like to invest in liquid gold

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armagnac_%28drink%29

Unfortunately my investment declines in value with declining inventories

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 13:14 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

I'll be leaving in a few minutes on a time travelling expedition into the future and will return promptly to report on my findings.

OK I'm back.

Gold takes a bath. New bull market in tight silver Lycra® jump suits, airfilter glasses and head mounted antenna's.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 13:26 | Link to Comment MsCreant
Thu, 06/03/2010 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

I have a few qustions about your time travel experince....

Did gold go to Zero ?

Did the USD still exist ?

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 14:40 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

I forgot. Hang on a sec.................

OK. Let's put it this way. Someone owes me a beer.

#383098

As for the USD, here's the headline.

"GRAND JURY INVESTIGATES NON EXISTING PRINTING PRESS AND LACK OF THIN AIR". Sorry.

In other future news:

"OLDMAN SACKS INVOLVED IN TEABAGGER MOVEMENT"

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

The truth sure hurt on that time travel experince didn't it ?

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 13:35 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

WSJ (as well as the rest of official mass media) is not in a new business. They are just hired services to promote their clients products and/or agenda. There are not any different from a street corner whore.

The most interesting part of this is that there are plenty of stupid fools who are buying their "news"=BS for the face value.

 

PS

As for "you cannot  eat gold", the same is true also for the great painting and diamonds as many other things one cannot eat. 

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 18:14 | Link to Comment drwells
drwells's picture

Actually, street corner whores produce something of value, rather than being a net drain on the economy.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 13:52 | Link to Comment ddtuttle
ddtuttle's picture

EASY!  Convert it to quarters an eat those!!

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 14:04 | Link to Comment unrealrally
unrealrally's picture

While Central Bank madness is definitely going to destroy paper currencies; I don't understand what makes you say that since "retail investors" are pushing central banks (and gold sellers) to run out of inventory, it means buying gold is the right thing to do. Since when did retail investor activity become a proxy for the the right thinking in capital/commodity/currency markets?

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

not all retail investors are stupid, just the group as a whole. How many of your friends own gold ?

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 10:36 | Link to Comment unrealrally
unrealrally's picture

I'm in India. We ALL own gold! :)

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 14:19 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

That's probably because the average Indian has a much better sense of monetary history than the average ignorant American, and has not been as heavily brainwashed by a statist and cynicially Keynesian financial and political elite for most of the last century.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 14:15 | Link to Comment topshelfstuff
topshelfstuff's picture

I'm only pasting two paragraphs, but you should really read it all. Coincidentally, the $7,000 mentioned is just about equal to the $850ish High of  Jan 1980, adjusted with the same Yardstick used Historically and at that time. I'm sure you all know that places like ShadowStats keeps the original Yardstick, and it can be used for apples to apples calculations.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2010/0526.html

The public balance sheets have systematically built up greater debt in order to rescue private banks from ruin. The government leverage upward has enabled a private bank leverage downward, with little success however, as perception of wreckage is pervasive and turning universal. The bond market recognizes the ruin has shifted attacks from banks to sovereign accounts, the government debt arena. So the USFed will produce mountains of new money, and gold notices the debasement process. The USFed press release read as follows.

Each new round of Quantitative Easing and gold price suppression assures an even higher potential gold price as long-term forecast target. The official policies are ruinous, and even destroy capital, eroding capital formation, and circumvent job creation. The eventual gold target in my view has moved from $5000 to $7000 in the last few months. No remedy is in the works. No solution is even pursued. No liquidation of toxic assets is underway.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 14:45 | Link to Comment GoldBricker
GoldBricker's picture

No remedy is in the works. No solution is even pursued. No liquidation of toxic assets is underway.

If you're driving toward a wall, you will have to stop. You can stop by standing on the brake, or stop by hitting the wall. No doubt about which strategy has been chosen here.

 

 

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 16:26 | Link to Comment Pimp Juice
Pimp Juice's picture

delete

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 16:50 | Link to Comment drwells
drwells's picture

If the WSJ told me the sky was blue, I'd check myself into the nuthouse.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 04:53 | Link to Comment alexwest
alexwest's picture

>>is you can't eat the damn thing

as stupid as it gets...

seems you're capable of  eating 'paper money'... :)

people got by on gold for last 4 thoussand years..no problema..

alex

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