Rosie Sees "Trouble Ahead" Despite Sudden Resurgence Of Market Euphoria

Tyler Durden's picture

As Wall Street finally takes its Teleprompter General prescribed daily dose of Lithium, and the euphoria is back with a vengeance, as suddenly all the troubles seem so far away, here is David Rosenberg who again battles the prevailing mainstream mania (of the day, tomorrow who knows) and continues to see "Trouble Ahead."

From Breakfast with Rosie


“We believe the public sector business will continue to be challenging for at least several quarters,” said Cisco’s CEO John Chambers on a conference call on November 10, 2010.

What is remarkable is how nonchalant the investment community has been to Cisco’s disappointing results and what Mr. Chambers had to say last week. The prevailing view is that the miss was a one-time event and only limited to Cisco. Wrong and wrong.

State and local governments in the U.S. are in a state of disarray and the need to cut spending to close massive fiscal gaps are simply acute. As a result, companies that sell into this part of the economy — the lower levels of government represent 13% of the economy, which is the largest contributor outside of the consumer and double the relative share of capital spending — are extremely vulnerable to cutbacks in sales and squeezed order books. And, it is hardly likely that this problem is limited to Cisco, which proved to be a key bellwether at turning points in the market in both 2000 and 2007.

The fiscal mess at the state and local level will very likely be the front page story in 2011 and the retrenchment in this sector poses the greatest headwind regarding the economic outlook. Chicago, where I am today giving speeches and meeting prospects, has a $20 billion unfunded pension liability. Yesterday’s front page of the WSJ ran with States Offer Washington Lesson in Belt Tightening. The state of Illinois is just behind California in terms of fiscal recklessness — the state just borrowed $4 billion in order to meet a payment to its pension fund (the fund in recent months has been selling assets and the state legislature is now contemplating income tax hikes). Read the article, it’s not just Christie in New Jersey that has taken a knife to sacred cows but so has Mitch Daniels in Indiana who also issued an executive order that terminated collective bargaining rights for civil servants. Spending was sliced and taxes were raised to close the fiscal gaps, and guess what? Governor Daniels has a huge 68% approval rating right now. Tim Pawlenty in Minnesota has also found creative ways to cut costs — though in part offloading the restraint to the cities.

In other words, there is hope. It seems hardly likely that the federal government would guarantee banking sector liabilities and then not backstop the state and local governments because a default in this space is unfathomable — especially from a political standpoint when you consider who owns tax-exempt muni bonds (ahem — the voters). If Europe can find a way to stave off defaults in the periphery, believe me, the same holds true in the case of states and municipalities over here. As an aside, the reason why the EU has to bail out these basket case Club Med countries — there is little choice despite the moral hazard involved — is because the region’s banks have massive exposures. In sum, European banks hold more than $650 billion of Irish bonds alone! So the market here in the U.S. is very likely pricing in default risks that are risks indeed but likely will turn into reality. So, the trade here is a barbell between muni bonds at their current attractive yields and a short position on companies whose sales are exposed to the retrenching state and local government sector.

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Wyndtunnel's picture

The whole world economy is one giant act of Chinese plate spinning.. it's only a matter of time before it all comes crashing down... 

TooBearish's picture

Rosie and Roubini need to get a better grasp on HOW LIPSTICK IS APPLIED TO A PIG on a daily basis

apberusdisvet's picture

When does the LSD that the gubmint put in our water wear off?

LeBalance's picture

Are you confused?  Last I looked the addition of the psycho-active Fluoride was more than enough for everyeone to be wearing their rose colored glasses.

/agreement with your comment, slight modification./

Superdrol's picture

The double chin on Rosenberg makes me ill.  He has good info, but nasty double chin.

spartan117's picture

I'm surprised bears like Rosie and Nic are still liquid.

HarryWanger's picture

Exactly. In the face of indisputable signs that the economy has turned, still, really still?, this guy won't admit he's wrong and been wrong now for about a year and a half. 

They'd gain a lot more credibility to just say, "I was wrong about that." I do. But then again, I tend to trade markets and don't marry a position, as in their case, a doomer one.

StuartScottsLazyEye's picture

Indisuptable signs that the economy has turned? Are you kidding me? Rosie disputes that notion in almost every piece he turns out. I suggest actually reading some of his pieces instead of surmising that "Rosie is a bear, he must be wrong" because his strategies (bonds, gold, utilities and dividend paying stocks) has done exceptional. I thoroughly enjoy reading Rosie, and I acknowledge that I am no where near as smart as some of the posters here - but I think to state that there is indisputable signs that the economy has turned is ignorant at best.

jus_lite_reading's picture

You obviously didn't get the memo that Hairywang received- it stated the recession ended in June 2009 and the economy is roaring back to life with so many green shoots, the Gov't will need to hire landscapers to keep them in control.

In fact, the economy is roaring back SO STRONGLY, the Fed is planning on injecting ANOTHER $600 BILLION to stimulate the already strong growth. Get it?

RichardENixon's picture

Harry took Geithner literally when he wrote "Welcome to the Recovery." Most of us here viewed it as farce.


earnyermoney's picture

There's only one sign for Harry. The same one Ben Bernanke's Fed uses to prove the success of their programs. A rising stock market.

Total BS. This coming from a guy from Seattle. An area that has not seen and is not seeing any signs of the downturn.

Canucklehead's picture

...The winds are calmest when the sun sets.

...Make hay while the sun shines as soon we will be groping in the darkness.

Rosie & Roubini are correct.  Clearly the powers that be can dictate action in the short term; while they have the votes.  That too will pass...

Rosie & Roubini are worried about the future.  As you ride the wave up, then short the market and ride the wave down, don't laugh at the yucks who end up stranded on the beach.  It may not be of their own accord.

jus_lite_reading's picture

Stop making sense and using logic and reasoning powers. We want to hear RAH RAH SISHH BOOM BAH on how everything is great...

Max Hunter's picture

Harry is the same guy that would say buy a house in 2006 because it's a great investment and BB said that house prices would not fall but may see reduced increase..

Look.. It's simple.. If you can't see the wall of fundamentals that point to a decrease in asset prices and increase in consumables (food, energy)  then you are buying the mainstream hopium hook line and sinker..

People like Harry will sail like a eagle in flight staring down at prey until he runs into the wall that drops him out of the sky like a brick. 

unum mountaineer's picture

don't know how many ways this can be put.

loved this' money mo' money mo' money!!

cosmictrainwreck's picture

oh, man.......that's a SCREAM. Reckon these boys trained the banksters?

Bananamerican's picture

don't forget righteous right-wing Texas y'all....

estimated $25 Billion shortfall in 2011...Worse financial shape (per capita) with higher % working in public sector than California!! Day-um!

Texas has a state "balanced budget" requirement so these are revenue shortfalls ahm a talkin bout rat cheer

Rusty_Griswold's picture

First of all, the people on here are not dumb enough to believe anything as ridiculous as you saying Texas is in worst shape than California.

From House Speaker Joe Straus on Tuesday: "We ended the fiscal year 2010 approximately $2 billion short of the revenue estimate," Straus said. "At this point, it would not be unreasonable to assume we may have a similar revenue shortfall for fiscal year 2011."

The only reason there is a $2 billion shortfall is because our illegal immigrant population is overwhelming our services, like many other states.

Bananamerican's picture

that's "worse" not "worst" ya ferrener....


Texas: From Boom to Budget Gap of $25 Billion (12:07PM)

Two weeks ago, Texas’ Republican Governor Rick Perry won an unprecedented fourth term and his party captured two thirds of the Legislature. Now voters are being told what they never heard during the election campaign: state government may face a 25-billion dollar shortfall.

  • Wayne Slater: Senior Political Writer, Dallas Morning News
  • Jason Isaac: Representative-elect (R), Texas State House of Representatives
  • Sherri Greenberg: former Representative (D), Texas State House of Representatives
  • Ray Perryman: Economist and Founding President, The Perryman Group
  • Listen and weep....and Rusty you don't speak for "the people on here" any more than i do...give that hive-mind shit a rest


cougar_w's picture

See. That's what comes from having a 1-party system. They can jack you around all ways they want to, you have no choice. It's like Soviet Russia all over again.

I wish they had seceded before this. Now we're gonna have to bail out their sorry butts, and then they'll secede anyway I suppose and take our money with them. That's about on a par with Greece.

They talk high and mighty down there, but they're turning to be just as weaselly as they come.

Okay, that ought to be enough from me. You guys boiling yet? Have at it, Texans! Show us the color of you patriotism.

Full disclosure: My mom is from Texas. About as stiff-necked as they come. I got to where I finally can't stand her or her side of the family. 

notadouche's picture

It couldn't have anything to do with the millions of illegals drafting off the free services.  Texas at least tries not to screw the taxpayer too bad with an outrageous state income tax.  I suppose they will have to enact one but I'd hate to think of being in a state that has a state income tax and still falling off a cliff with budget deficit.  I don't live in Texas but I don't understand why you would take so much glee in the budget deficit of a state.  Sounds like you got issues.  Funny though how left and right coast are actually filing bankruptcy, falling like dominoes yet instead of focusing on that you decide to  pointing out someone else shortcoming to somehow makes you feel better.  I think they have a word for that.  Schadenfreude I believe.  Makes it all the more clear that immigration laws need to go hard line and your making the case that more conservatism needs to be enacted by state governments and also slashing of government workers in order to get balanced.   Yet I can't believe that's what your intentions are.  Be careful what you wish for. 

Bananamerican's picture

"Sounds like you got issues. you decide to  pointing out someone else shortcoming to somehow makes you feel better.  I think they have a word for that.  Schadenfreude I believe. Be careful what you wish for. blah blah blah.."

Presume much douche? I do have issues with internet folk who jump to 29 conclusions about someone based on a brief comment

Look, don't even think about extrapolating what i or anyone thinks feels says or even "types" on a forum like obviously haven't the wit for it....



notadouche's picture

Doesn't take much presumption on my part when your so called well thought out thesis starts and ends with derogatory terms.  Kind of makes it hard for you to assume the high ground I would think.  

Watauga's picture

Bananamerican--Would you please explain the following characterization: "righteous right-wing Texas"?  I don't know what that is supposed to mean.  In what way is "Texas" right-wing?  What, in the 21st C, does "right wing" mean?

Bananamerican's picture

Don't play dumb Watuga, unless you'd like to 1st explain what you mean by the word "characterization" the 21st century....(lol)

With the exception of Austin (cool town) Texas is an AMAZINGLY right-wing (so called "conservative") hard core christian, death penalty loving' place (a righteous state in a state of righteousness), held up as an example of ALL that is superior about right wing "CONservative" REPUBLICANNNNNN governance in amerika as opposed to the godless profligate liberrrullll sodomites of the coasts.

But i've had to explain this to you're from Texas aren't you....

I did not know that Texas had a bigger public sector workforce till yesterday...

122 per 10k for Texas...In Cali, 106 per 10K

Fuck Republicans by the way....Fuck you all

(and you Dems too)

Oh and Texas? Thanks for W.

("oh, he's not one of OURS!")

("the fuck you say...")

notadouche's picture

Of course W's family is from Greenwhich CT but lets not let facts get in the way of a good mudslinging.  LBJ was from Texas.  Isn't he the hero of the left.  He sucked too so what's your point.  Geography is not a prerequisite of douchebag politicians.  I can name just as many from Texas as I can from CT, Cal, Ohio etc...You give me a state in the union and I can give you a boat load of douchebag politicians.  Now if you want to point out that all US state a federal govts of both parties are corrupt, intellectually dishonest, only interested in furthering their own self interest american people be damned then we might can come to an understanding.  

Bananamerican's picture

the point is i despise W., he sounds like a texan, he sucked up texas mores in his dissolute formative years....guilt by ASSociation...

but seriously, I've noticed a propensity on ZHedge to hassle/junk any political stones thrown unless it's in the form of an explicit, bi-partisan slam...the assumption being that someone is a partisan otherwise (some here ARE partisan). You'd think my avatar would act as political shorthand for my'd be wrong....

notadouche's picture

I understand that but why take it out on an entire state.  That reminds me of how Texas was blamed for assassinating Kennedy, as if the whole state pulled the trigger instead of the team of imported expert marksmen from anywhere but Dallas.  Ok off topic but it's that time of year.   Generalizations on any side are just wrong.  How'd you get the avatar?

Bananamerican's picture

fresh baked it myself in photoshop...

btw, i have kin in Texas...Baptists...

There's good folks in Texas...and craaaazy mofo's

jus_lite_reading's picture

Them bible toting, gun slining, country folk have got to pay billions to keep out them aliens from Mexiko.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

I live in Texas. I can assure you the problem is not as bad as that communist California. This being said, most Texans live in denial that a massive economic problem exists. HUGE budget cuts are coming down the pike and it is going to be painful.

TBT or not TBT's picture

It is true that we didn't get how bad the recession has been, having been in Texas the whole time.   There is indeed farely widespread ignorance of it among our left leaning types.

Bananamerican's picture

" I can assure you the problem is not as bad as that communist California."

Dream on proud Texan!

at least in Cali we usually have more sense than to show state pride for anything other than the weather...

notadouche's picture

Maybe true but you also have a lot of douchebag super rich entertainers and Al Gore that like to tell other people how to live yet once their own lives are inspected the carbon footprint they leave is larger in one day than my family of 5 will leave in a lifetime.  Just like you resent Texans for assuming they no the right way to live, the rest of the country resents the faces of California doing the same to all of us less fortunates.  I bet Sheryl Crow uses more than one square of toilet tissue.  

No Mas's picture

It seems David has seen "trouble coming" for a few thousand DOW points now.  Does this guy manage anyone's money?

I have learned to now read ZH as the ultimate contratian indicator, for the markets, the world economy and politics in general.  The worse it seems here, the better things likely are to be in reality.

Eurpope and Asia are still around, Ben has decided to bring the markets back after a pause to alow for better prices and Thanksgiving is just around the corner.

I am thankful that life is so good for now.

How's that double dip call going for Rosie?

pat53's picture

LOL, EXACTLY ! This clown has been calling for everything to collapse now for months/years? How can anyone take this guy seriously. maybe he'll throw the towel in after Dow 12K in a few weeks. Strongest months for stocks on deck. If anyone thinks the TPTB are going to let stocks fall into year end are in for a rude awakening.

unum mountaineer's picture

lol, funnier you slobbin' knobs callin this a market

HarryWanger's picture

Thanks, pat53. Thanks No Mas. It's good to see other people actually "get it" here. There's a weird psychology behind these doomer types like Rosie. They can't admit they're wrong when clearly, he's been wrong for a while and lost people a lot of money in returns they would have made playing the market moves. 

Good to see some sanity here - we need it to keep perspective and balance.

Orly's picture

Hold on to your hats.  I am getting the sinking suspicion that any downside move could snowball into panic selling.  All the shorts have been covered by now and there is no floor underneath this thing.

Be careful.  It may be possible to close in the red today.

They just have it hovering here in space.  Very, very odd.


HarryWanger's picture

SPX up 1.6% is pretty impressive so I wouldn't say it's just "hovering in space." 

Orly's picture

It has not moved out of the initial range for over two hours, either higher or lower.  Surely, you find that a bit strange, don't you?

HarryWanger's picture

Not at all. Did exactly the opposite two days ago. Dropped out of the gate and stayed at pretty much the same level all day. Nothing odd about today either.

Orly's picture

Hmm.  What day was it?  I don't see anything similar on my charts as this.

HarryWanger's picture

Tuesday, Nov. 16th. Market dropped out of the gate and stayed there all day. Exact opposite of today where market jumped out of the gate and stayed there all day. 

I don't know how I can be any more clear other than posting the SPX chart here for the week.

Orly's picture

Ok.  You say so.

Best of luck trading!

SheepDog-One's picture

You think in REALITY things are actually just fine? Guess you can get in all your gloating on 1 day of all-out criminality to make the Gubmint Motors stock sale seem 'all is well'...better savor it quick because it will of course be short lived.

No Mas's picture

Come on Sheep-Dog.  You have been calling for a collapse since I first read you on this board.

Go ahead and define "short lived".  Don't tie yourself down to a particular view and cherry pick data to support it. 

Of course all is not well; in the course of human history all has never been well.  But we are in the midst of an expanding global economy and to think it is all going to come crashing down anytime soon is not realistic.

Look to happen what always happens.  Namely, a Santa Clause rally.  If you're not in the market then consider strongly that this holiday shopping season will be a barn burner and get to those stores early if you want to get a good gift for your loved ones.

Those shelves will empty quickly this year.

pat53's picture

Yup, dumbass sheep-dog was calling me an idiot when I told him 3 months ago that the SPX was going to 1130 when it was at 1100. I've been saying all along to NOT fight Benny and the Boys, its that simple. Fundamentals DON'T matter, thats true, but do you want to make money or not?