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Rosie Sees "Trouble Ahead" Despite Sudden Resurgence Of Market Euphoria

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As Wall Street finally takes its Teleprompter General prescribed daily dose of Lithium, and the euphoria is back with a vengeance, as suddenly all the troubles seem so far away, here is David Rosenberg who again battles the prevailing mainstream mania (of the day, tomorrow who knows) and continues to see "Trouble Ahead."

From Breakfast with Rosie

TROUBLE AHEAD

“We believe the public sector business will continue to be challenging for at least several quarters,” said Cisco’s CEO John Chambers on a conference call on November 10, 2010.

What is remarkable is how nonchalant the investment community has been to Cisco’s disappointing results and what Mr. Chambers had to say last week. The prevailing view is that the miss was a one-time event and only limited to Cisco. Wrong and wrong.

State and local governments in the U.S. are in a state of disarray and the need to cut spending to close massive fiscal gaps are simply acute. As a result, companies that sell into this part of the economy — the lower levels of government represent 13% of the economy, which is the largest contributor outside of the consumer and double the relative share of capital spending — are extremely vulnerable to cutbacks in sales and squeezed order books. And, it is hardly likely that this problem is limited to Cisco, which proved to be a key bellwether at turning points in the market in both 2000 and 2007.

The fiscal mess at the state and local level will very likely be the front page story in 2011 and the retrenchment in this sector poses the greatest headwind regarding the economic outlook. Chicago, where I am today giving speeches and meeting prospects, has a $20 billion unfunded pension liability. Yesterday’s front page of the WSJ ran with States Offer Washington Lesson in Belt Tightening. The state of Illinois is just behind California in terms of fiscal recklessness — the state just borrowed $4 billion in order to meet a payment to its pension fund (the fund in recent months has been selling assets and the state legislature is now contemplating income tax hikes). Read the article, it’s not just Christie in New Jersey that has taken a knife to sacred cows but so has Mitch Daniels in Indiana who also issued an executive order that terminated collective bargaining rights for civil servants. Spending was sliced and taxes were raised to close the fiscal gaps, and guess what? Governor Daniels has a huge 68% approval rating right now. Tim Pawlenty in Minnesota has also found creative ways to cut costs — though in part offloading the restraint to the cities.

In other words, there is hope. It seems hardly likely that the federal government would guarantee banking sector liabilities and then not backstop the state and local governments because a default in this space is unfathomable — especially from a political standpoint when you consider who owns tax-exempt muni bonds (ahem — the voters). If Europe can find a way to stave off defaults in the periphery, believe me, the same holds true in the case of states and municipalities over here. As an aside, the reason why the EU has to bail out these basket case Club Med countries — there is little choice despite the moral hazard involved — is because the region’s banks have massive exposures. In sum, European banks hold more than $650 billion of Irish bonds alone! So the market here in the U.S. is very likely pricing in default risks that are risks indeed but likely will turn into reality. So, the trade here is a barbell between muni bonds at their current attractive yields and a short position on companies whose sales are exposed to the retrenching state and local government sector.

 


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Thu, 11/18/2010 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Wyndtunnel
Wyndtunnel's picture

The whole world economy is one giant act of Chinese plate spinning.. it's only a matter of time before it all comes crashing down... 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 10:59 | Link to Comment TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Rosie and Roubini need to get a better grasp on HOW LIPSTICK IS APPLIED TO A PIG on a daily basis

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:00 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

When does the LSD that the gubmint put in our water wear off?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:31 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Are you confused?  Last I looked the addition of the psycho-active Fluoride was more than enough for everyeone to be wearing their rose colored glasses.

/agreement with your comment, slight modification./

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Superdrol
Superdrol's picture

The double chin on Rosenberg makes me ill.  He has good info, but nasty double chin.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:08 | Link to Comment spartan117
spartan117's picture

I'm surprised bears like Rosie and Nic are still liquid.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:14 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Exactly. In the face of indisputable signs that the economy has turned, still, really still?, this guy won't admit he's wrong and been wrong now for about a year and a half. 

They'd gain a lot more credibility to just say, "I was wrong about that." I do. But then again, I tend to trade markets and don't marry a position, as in their case, a doomer one.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:24 | Link to Comment StuartScottsLazyEye
StuartScottsLazyEye's picture

Indisuptable signs that the economy has turned? Are you kidding me? Rosie disputes that notion in almost every piece he turns out. I suggest actually reading some of his pieces instead of surmising that "Rosie is a bear, he must be wrong" because his strategies (bonds, gold, utilities and dividend paying stocks) has done exceptional. I thoroughly enjoy reading Rosie, and I acknowledge that I am no where near as smart as some of the posters here - but I think to state that there is indisputable signs that the economy has turned is ignorant at best.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:46 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

You obviously didn't get the memo that Hairywang received- it stated the recession ended in June 2009 and the economy is roaring back to life with so many green shoots, the Gov't will need to hire landscapers to keep them in control.

In fact, the economy is roaring back SO STRONGLY, the Fed is planning on injecting ANOTHER $600 BILLION to stimulate the already strong growth. Get it?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 14:01 | Link to Comment RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Harry took Geithner literally when he wrote "Welcome to the Recovery." Most of us here viewed it as farce.

 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:35 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

There's only one sign for Harry. The same one Ben Bernanke's Fed uses to prove the success of their programs. A rising stock market.

Total BS. This coming from a guy from Seattle. An area that has not seen and is not seeing any signs of the downturn.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

...The winds are calmest when the sun sets.

...Make hay while the sun shines as soon we will be groping in the darkness.

Rosie & Roubini are correct.  Clearly the powers that be can dictate action in the short term; while they have the votes.  That too will pass...

Rosie & Roubini are worried about the future.  As you ride the wave up, then short the market and ride the wave down, don't laugh at the yucks who end up stranded on the beach.  It may not be of their own accord.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:48 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Stop making sense and using logic and reasoning powers. We want to hear RAH RAH SISHH BOOM BAH on how everything is great...

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Harry is the same guy that would say buy a house in 2006 because it's a great investment and BB said that house prices would not fall but may see reduced increase..

Look.. It's simple.. If you can't see the wall of fundamentals that point to a decrease in asset prices and increase in consumables (food, energy)  then you are buying the mainstream hopium hook line and sinker..

People like Harry will sail like a eagle in flight staring down at prey until he runs into the wall that drops him out of the sky like a brick. 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:09 | Link to Comment unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

don't know how many ways this can be put.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jukQX2pl2Q

loved this show..mo' money mo' money mo' money!!

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:59 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

oh, man.......that's a SCREAM. Reckon these boys trained the banksters?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

don't forget righteous right-wing Texas y'all....

estimated $25 Billion shortfall in 2011...Worse financial shape (per capita) with higher % working in public sector than California!! Day-um!

Texas has a state "balanced budget" requirement so these are revenue shortfalls ahm a talkin bout rat cheer

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Rusty_Griswold
Rusty_Griswold's picture

First of all, the people on here are not dumb enough to believe anything as ridiculous as you saying Texas is in worst shape than California.

From House Speaker Joe Straus on Tuesday: "We ended the fiscal year 2010 approximately $2 billion short of the revenue estimate," Straus said. "At this point, it would not be unreasonable to assume we may have a similar revenue shortfall for fiscal year 2011."

The only reason there is a $2 billion shortfall is because our illegal immigrant population is overwhelming our services, like many other states.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

that's "worse" not "worst" ya ferrener.... http://www.kcrw.com/news/programs/tp/tp101117texas_from_boom_to_b

 

Texas: From Boom to Budget Gap of $25 Billion (12:07PM)

Two weeks ago, Texas’ Republican Governor Rick Perry won an unprecedented fourth term and his party captured two thirds of the Legislature. Now voters are being told what they never heard during the election campaign: state government may face a 25-billion dollar shortfall.

Guests:
  • Wayne Slater: Senior Political Writer, Dallas Morning News
  • Jason Isaac: Representative-elect (R), Texas State House of Representatives
  • Sherri Greenberg: former Representative (D), Texas State House of Representatives
  • Ray Perryman: Economist and Founding President, The Perryman Group
  • Listen and weep....and Rusty you don't speak for "the people on here" any more than i do...give that hive-mind shit a rest

 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 14:44 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

See. That's what comes from having a 1-party system. They can jack you around all ways they want to, you have no choice. It's like Soviet Russia all over again.

I wish they had seceded before this. Now we're gonna have to bail out their sorry butts, and then they'll secede anyway I suppose and take our money with them. That's about on a par with Greece.

They talk high and mighty down there, but they're turning to be just as weaselly as they come.

Okay, that ought to be enough from me. You guys boiling yet? Have at it, Texans! Show us the color of you patriotism.

Full disclosure: My mom is from Texas. About as stiff-necked as they come. I got to where I finally can't stand her or her side of the family. 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:29 | Link to Comment notadouche
notadouche's picture

It couldn't have anything to do with the millions of illegals drafting off the free services.  Texas at least tries not to screw the taxpayer too bad with an outrageous state income tax.  I suppose they will have to enact one but I'd hate to think of being in a state that has a state income tax and still falling off a cliff with budget deficit.  I don't live in Texas but I don't understand why you would take so much glee in the budget deficit of a state.  Sounds like you got issues.  Funny though how left and right coast are actually filing bankruptcy, falling like dominoes yet instead of focusing on that you decide to  pointing out someone else shortcoming to somehow makes you feel better.  I think they have a word for that.  Schadenfreude I believe.  Makes it all the more clear that immigration laws need to go hard line and your making the case that more conservatism needs to be enacted by state governments and also slashing of government workers in order to get balanced.   Yet I can't believe that's what your intentions are.  Be careful what you wish for. 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"Sounds like you got issues. you decide to  pointing out someone else shortcoming to somehow makes you feel better.  I think they have a word for that.  Schadenfreude I believe. Be careful what you wish for. blah blah blah.."

Presume much douche? I do have issues with internet folk who jump to 29 conclusions about someone based on a brief comment

Look, don't even think about extrapolating what i or anyone thinks feels says or even "types" on a forum like this....you obviously haven't the wit for it....

 

 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:54 | Link to Comment notadouche
notadouche's picture

Doesn't take much presumption on my part when your so called well thought out thesis starts and ends with derogatory terms.  Kind of makes it hard for you to assume the high ground I would think.  

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Watauga
Watauga's picture

Bananamerican--Would you please explain the following characterization: "righteous right-wing Texas"?  I don't know what that is supposed to mean.  In what way is "Texas" right-wing?  What, in the 21st C, does "right wing" mean?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:02 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Don't play dumb Watuga, unless you'd like to 1st explain what you mean by the word "characterization"...in the 21st century....(lol)

With the exception of Austin (cool town) Texas is an AMAZINGLY right-wing (so called "conservative") hard core christian, death penalty loving' place (a righteous state in a state of righteousness), held up as an example of ALL that is superior about right wing "CONservative" REPUBLICANNNNNN governance in amerika as opposed to the godless profligate liberrrullll sodomites of the coasts.

But i've had to explain this to you because...you're from Texas aren't you....

I did not know that Texas had a bigger public sector workforce till yesterday...

122 per 10k for Texas...In Cali, 106 per 10K

Fuck Republicans by the way....Fuck you all

(and you Dems too)

Oh and Texas? Thanks for W.

("oh, he's not one of OURS!")

("the fuck you say...")

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:02 | Link to Comment notadouche
notadouche's picture

Of course W's family is from Greenwhich CT but lets not let facts get in the way of a good mudslinging.  LBJ was from Texas.  Isn't he the hero of the left.  He sucked too so what's your point.  Geography is not a prerequisite of douchebag politicians.  I can name just as many from Texas as I can from CT, Cal, Ohio etc...You give me a state in the union and I can give you a boat load of douchebag politicians.  Now if you want to point out that all US state a federal govts of both parties are corrupt, intellectually dishonest, only interested in furthering their own self interest american people be damned then we might can come to an understanding.  

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:26 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

the point is i despise W., he sounds like a texan, he sucked up texas mores in his dissolute formative years....guilt by ASSociation...

but seriously, I've noticed a propensity on ZHedge to hassle/junk any political stones thrown unless it's in the form of an explicit, bi-partisan slam...the assumption being that someone is a partisan otherwise (some here ARE partisan). You'd think my avatar would act as political shorthand for my beliefs...you'd be wrong....

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:46 | Link to Comment notadouche
notadouche's picture

I understand that but why take it out on an entire state.  That reminds me of how Texas was blamed for assassinating Kennedy, as if the whole state pulled the trigger instead of the team of imported expert marksmen from anywhere but Dallas.  Ok off topic but it's that time of year.   Generalizations on any side are just wrong.  How'd you get the avatar?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 20:07 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

fresh baked it myself in photoshop...

btw, i have kin in Texas...Baptists...

There's good folks in Texas...and craaaazy mofo's

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Them bible toting, gun slining, country folk have got to pay billions to keep out them aliens from Mexiko.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

i hope they succeed...

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

I live in Texas. I can assure you the problem is not as bad as that communist California. This being said, most Texans live in denial that a massive economic problem exists. HUGE budget cuts are coming down the pike and it is going to be painful.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:57 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

It is true that we didn't get how bad the recession has been, having been in Texas the whole time.   There is indeed farely widespread ignorance of it among our left leaning types.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

" I can assure you the problem is not as bad as that communist California."

Dream on proud Texan!

at least in Cali we usually have more sense than to show state pride for anything other than the weather...

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:07 | Link to Comment notadouche
notadouche's picture

Maybe true but you also have a lot of douchebag super rich entertainers and Al Gore that like to tell other people how to live yet once their own lives are inspected the carbon footprint they leave is larger in one day than my family of 5 will leave in a lifetime.  Just like you resent Texans for assuming they no the right way to live, the rest of the country resents the faces of California doing the same to all of us less fortunates.  I bet Sheryl Crow uses more than one square of toilet tissue.  

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:16 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

wtf?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:17 | Link to Comment No Mas
No Mas's picture

It seems David has seen "trouble coming" for a few thousand DOW points now.  Does this guy manage anyone's money?

I have learned to now read ZH as the ultimate contratian indicator, for the markets, the world economy and politics in general.  The worse it seems here, the better things likely are to be in reality.

Eurpope and Asia are still around, Ben has decided to bring the markets back after a pause to alow for better prices and Thanksgiving is just around the corner.

I am thankful that life is so good for now.

How's that double dip call going for Rosie?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:23 | Link to Comment pat53
pat53's picture

LOL, EXACTLY ! This clown has been calling for everything to collapse now for months/years? How can anyone take this guy seriously. maybe he'll throw the towel in after Dow 12K in a few weeks. Strongest months for stocks on deck. If anyone thinks the TPTB are going to let stocks fall into year end are in for a rude awakening.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:32 | Link to Comment unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

lol, funnier you slobbin' knobs callin this a market

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:17 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Thanks, pat53. Thanks No Mas. It's good to see other people actually "get it" here. There's a weird psychology behind these doomer types like Rosie. They can't admit they're wrong when clearly, he's been wrong for a while and lost people a lot of money in returns they would have made playing the market moves. 

Good to see some sanity here - we need it to keep perspective and balance.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Hold on to your hats.  I am getting the sinking suspicion that any downside move could snowball into panic selling.  All the shorts have been covered by now and there is no floor underneath this thing.

Be careful.  It may be possible to close in the red today.

They just have it hovering here in space.  Very, very odd.

/"

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:59 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

SPX up 1.6% is pretty impressive so I wouldn't say it's just "hovering in space." 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

It has not moved out of the initial range for over two hours, either higher or lower.  Surely, you find that a bit strange, don't you?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:19 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Not at all. Did exactly the opposite two days ago. Dropped out of the gate and stayed at pretty much the same level all day. Nothing odd about today either.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Hmm.  What day was it?  I don't see anything similar on my charts as this.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:32 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Tuesday, Nov. 16th. Market dropped out of the gate and stayed there all day. Exact opposite of today where market jumped out of the gate and stayed there all day. 

I don't know how I can be any more clear other than posting the SPX chart here for the week.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Ok.  You say so.

Best of luck trading!

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:26 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You think in REALITY things are actually just fine? Guess you can get in all your gloating on 1 day of all-out criminality to make the Gubmint Motors stock sale seem 'all is well'...better savor it quick because it will of course be short lived.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:35 | Link to Comment No Mas
No Mas's picture

Come on Sheep-Dog.  You have been calling for a collapse since I first read you on this board.

Go ahead and define "short lived".  Don't tie yourself down to a particular view and cherry pick data to support it. 

Of course all is not well; in the course of human history all has never been well.  But we are in the midst of an expanding global economy and to think it is all going to come crashing down anytime soon is not realistic.

Look to happen what always happens.  Namely, a Santa Clause rally.  If you're not in the market then consider strongly that this holiday shopping season will be a barn burner and get to those stores early if you want to get a good gift for your loved ones.

Those shelves will empty quickly this year.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment pat53
pat53's picture

Yup, dumbass sheep-dog was calling me an idiot when I told him 3 months ago that the SPX was going to 1130 when it was at 1100. I've been saying all along to NOT fight Benny and the Boys, its that simple. Fundamentals DON'T matter, thats true, but do you want to make money or not?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:48 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

>>"Fundamentals DON'T matter"<<

That is, until they do matter. Notice that daily POMO injection has been given a dose a diminshing return reality? All of a sudden $8 BILLION a day won't cut it. Wonder why that is... hmmm. There will always be arrogant idiots like you; then again, thanks for the pump! 

 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:12 | Link to Comment pat53
pat53's picture

Hey moron.... FO ! This "arrogant idiot" has made a lot of money going with flow, not losing money trying to fight it, which sounds like you have. I'm NOT bullish on the economy, but make money while you can, isn't that what its all about !!

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:49 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

I say, "show me the money." What securities did you actually make money on? Oh please do tell.

Unlike you, my Treasury holdings, coupled with gold/silver positions, which I posted months ago, have returned exponentially greater returns than ANY investment in "stocks" or whatever you want to call them. Markets are up what YTD? Check out the 2,5,10,30 T's and then cry over them. Making money whatever way the market goes is fine..

 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

True dat. Does anyone remember when "Caribbean banks" buying $25B worth of treasuries a month raised eyebrows? They had to at least try to hide the schwarz Arbeit back then.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:31 | Link to Comment unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

lol, funny you call this a market

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:43 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Another misguided drunken sailor tumbling off the same sinking boat as Leo Kaka and Hairy Wang (with his big LOOK AT ME American Flag as an avatar)

You shits are too stupid to realize any gains in the markets are contributed to POMO money printing which has decreased your standard of living and purchasing power by equal amount. Net loss after tax. Hey, I've got some magic beans to sell you if you're interested in drinking a glass of gubmint KOOL AID along with them...

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:20 | Link to Comment kgtrader
kgtrader's picture

how do you suppose they support the muni markets through this?  There aren't muni futures contracts to buy with POMO?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:23 | Link to Comment unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

http://www.ny1.com/content/top_stories/129152/bloomberg-set-to-announce-...

don't forget, city feeds the upstate Albany. hmmm..bonuses on wall street are pretty good this year eh? low sales and tax revenue for the city eh?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Seems to me the clock is ticking on today's "all good in Europe" call.  Euro is starting to roll over.  Methinks a solution was supposed to be on paper by now...uh humm. 

But hey...go Government Motors, right? 

addtional:  The copper pump looks dead in its tracks at the key $3.80 level again.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Watauga
Watauga's picture

Best way to short EURO?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment No Mas
No Mas's picture

If you're going to take a bet on a stronger $, you may as well go ahead and throw your assets in a can and start the burn.

Life's lessons are simple and have been learned by many so that others don't need to make the same mistake.

Do not fight the Fed, especially this one. Simple and effective way to make money in this market.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nice cliche'...and maybe true.  However:

The fed cannot fix unemployment in the US.

The fed cannot fix the bumblefuck in Europe

The fed is losing its credibility here in the states like I have never seen before.

The fed cannot fix the debt load nor can it stop the insanse spending of politicians.

The fed has done everything it can do to turn this thing...and yet this thing just won't turn.  And so I guess I am saying that the only thing left to do is to fight the fed, albeit with quick jabs and a relentless pursuit of TRUTH.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

USD now clobbering JPY...but I guess now that the quant rally has been ignited, no once cares about that whole weak dollar, strong dollar thing that, umm, was supposedly the reason equities were bouncing, along with how great it is that China is now into price controls, and the Irish...well apparently they are still being Irish and ready to shank the EU.

But whatever....

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Go to IBFX, set up a 4X account and sell it.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:52 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

"No Mas" still thinks... believes the Chinese DF21 missile was an "amatur rocket"! Ignorant fool! But why am I not surprised? After all, half the population voted for Obamao to save their poor souls. That means at least 50% are working with their rose colored glasses still on...

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:05 | Link to Comment No Mas
No Mas's picture

I'm not sure where you got the idea I believe the photos of a US Airways 57 contrail was an amateur rocket; I have never stated such.

I have no idea how you associate me with an Obama voter; never happened.

My glasses are clear lensed and are not clouded by an inability to see past the information posted here everyday.

It seems to sadden most here that the world is not about to collapse around us all, rather it is recovering from a severe recession.  Things are doing better; the markets around the world are simply reflecting this fact.

Crooks abound as they always have; there is not now nor will there ever be justice in the world.

Cheer up young man; life is good no matter how bad the Fed and our government may be behaving.  Move past the typical ZH outrage or crisis of the day and you'll live a happier life.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:34 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

>>"I'm not sure where you got the idea I believe the photos of a US Airways 57 contrail was an amateur rocket; I have never stated such. I have no idea how you associate me with an Obama voter; never happened."

I'll let your next statement answer how I arrived at that conclusion.

>>"It seems to sadden most here that the world is not about to collapse around us all, rather it is recovering from a severe recession.  Things are doing better; the markets around the world are simply reflecting this fact."<<

Enough said.

>>"Crooks abound as they always have"<<

Speaking of the devil... yourself included?

>>"there is not now nor will there ever be justice in the world."<<

I tend to disagree, on the fact that there never will be justice.

>>"Cheer up young man; life is good no matter how bad the Fed and our government may be behaving."<<

I'm past retirement now, enjoying the unused vacation days; I'd venture to say, I'm well past your age and certainly mental ability.

>>"Move past the typical ZH outrage or crisis of the day and you'll live a happier life."<<

Then why the hell are you here, Mr. The Glass is Always Full? ZH is one of the few sites around that is not contaminated by "everything is great" propaganda. I enjoy the other viewpoint provided by ZH. I donated to ZH the day I discovered the site. You on the other hand, are nothing more than... oh never mind.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Has anyone else noticed the rush of trolls into the comment section of anything Rosenberg? It's clear that the powers that be and other assorted trolls, malcontents and hanger ons desperately need to debunk Rosenberg and anyone else speaking with a clear mind using critical thinking skills.

God bless the further dumbing down of America we would have if all these trolls had their way. 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:03 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Yes. Of course. Paid trolls to counter the truth. After all, we can't have EVERYONE in agreement that the financial system is on the verge of collapse!

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:13 | Link to Comment No Mas
No Mas's picture

CD -

No one can debunk Rosenburg's critical thinking skills.  But it has been clear that his conclusions are simply wrong. 

I ask again; how is his call for a double dip recession working out for him and his investors?

Also, you sound more like a fan of a cult figure than a reasoned person defending his positions.  Maybe you can cite examples where Rosie has been accurately forcasting this recovery (GDP and market) instead of trying to insult all of us who come to this board to point out the obvious; David Rosenburg has been ineffective in determining the direction of the global economy and the markets in particular.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:21 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Well said, No Mas. And don't bother arguing the contrail with these guys. I said it when the "news" broke here at ZH and pretty much had death threats. If someone can't figure out simple physics, don't bother trying to argue.

Again, the definition of insanity is attempting the same thing over and over expecting a different result. Seems a lot of people posting here fit that bill.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:06 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

OK, Harry, I will concede the magicians can probably levitate this immoral bitch for a while longer...the stakes (for them) are so high. Let's talk on January 3, 2011.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:27 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Contrail this:

 

REDACTED: Finally there is something that has occurred, in which I am actually an expert and qualified to give a real answer about. I am a retired U.S. Navy FireControl Technician, who is platform certified in missile systems XXXXXXXXX, I have also worked with the Navy’s Harpoon, Tomahawk and ASROC missile systems.Anyway, what I saw in the recent video concerning the object 30 miles off the coast of CA is blatantly a foreign made, Large Cruise or ICBM missile, being launched by a sub-surface aquatic platform.

First I know its a large missile because it did not exhibit the typical “corkscrewing” trajectory of a beam riding missile as it trys to acquire the targeting beam. This tells me its a Big Boy with a complete guidance system installed in it, what is nicknamed a “fire and forget” missile, as once its launched its internal guidance system takes over and there is no real need for external guidance.

I’m fairly confident its not one of ours, as the vapor trail appears “dirty” it looks brownish. I have personally been involved in (5) SM2 missile launches, and (2) ASROC missile launches, and have been on safety observation for at least 15 more launches of Harpoons, Tomahawks and other missiles. We put a lot of sweat and money into our “birds” and part of that is the fuel cells, they burn very clean, a whitish-blue infact, not a dirty blackish brown. That missile had rather crude fuel cells, which tells me its not one of ours.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:37 | Link to Comment notadouche
notadouche's picture

So where did this thing land and why has it not been recovered and studied?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:51 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Left the atmosphere. Burned up on exit. As planned.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:59 | Link to Comment notadouche
notadouche's picture

I'm surprised the government didn't tell us it was a weather balloon.  They got much bolder in telling us it was all an optical illusion.   Wow either the government has gotten more inept or they believe the population has.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:06 | Link to Comment DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

Thank-You Letter To David Rosenberg

Rosie has provided me with the greatest learning experience of a lifetime.  

I'm thankful for that.  He's taught me how you can be dead right on fundamentals and the markets can pay no attention to them at all.  As I read another G/S report from DR, it's kind of surreal.  He's been absolutely right about almost everything that he's predicted over the past couple of years.  Markets have not really paid any attention.... The SP500 has pushed higher, the world economy has not ended - there has not been a complete collapse of the banking and financial system - so....I guess I have to ask - "What's the point"  - Is it really worth listening ?  Maybe I should just buy / sell 2 standard deviation moves from VWAP and ignore everything ? 

The reality of his commentary is that it's not meaningful to the process of trading.  It provides one man's viewpoint.  In the scope of things - his viewpoint, while valid, perhaps is really meaningless.  Another well paid economist, getting rich for espousing his views, not for making money trading the markets.

In fact - his perspective could be confusing.  Our brains take in all information and put things into context.  Context can confuse the issues.  Here's a great example: 

Look at this image - specifically the orange dot (click the link)

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_boO_BV8n9ko/TOQKvyUHYbI/AAAAAAAAIUM/SNSXWkWFCeU/s1600/3md.JPG

What do you notice about the dot ?   The dots are the same size.

Context has confused you.

Maybe we'd all be better off to just watch price and tone down the commentary.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:15 | Link to Comment No Mas
No Mas's picture

You sir are pragnatic and not fanatic.  You will be "junked" without mercy for straying from the shelter of the ZH herd.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Superdrol
Superdrol's picture

I used to read a lot of the bear's argument, but until they can do it with legitimate clarity instead of the idiot claims of gloom and doom, they are useless to listen to.  I'm here to make money, not be right while stroking myself in front of a mirror and watching.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:27 | Link to Comment Windemup
Windemup's picture

MERRY CHRISTMAS

Twas the month before Christmas
When all through our land,
Not a Christian was praying
Nor taking a stand.
See the PC Police had taken away,
The reason for Christmas - no one could say.
The children were told by their schools not to sing,
About Shepherds and Wise Men and Angels and things.
It might hurt people's feelings, the teachers would say
December 25th is just a ' Holiday '.
Yet the shoppers were ready with cash, checks and credit
Pushing folks down to the floor just to get it!
CDs from Madonna, an X BOX, an I-pod
Something was changing, something quite odd!
Retailers promoted Ramadan and Kwanzaa
In hopes to sell books by Franken & Fonda..
As Targets were hanging their trees upside down
At Lowe's the word Christmas - was no where to be found.
At K-Mart and Staples and Penny's and Sears
You won't hear the word Christmas; it won't touch your ears.
Inclusive, sensitive, Di-ver-is-ty
Are words that were used to intimidate me.
Now Daschle, Now Darden, Now Sharpton, Wolf Blitzen
On Boxer, on Rather, on Kerry, on Clinton !
At the top of the Senate, there arose such a clatter
To eliminate Jesus, in all public matter.
And we spoke not a word, as they took away our faith
Forbidden to speak of salvation and grace
The true Gift of Christmas was exchanged and discarded
The reason for the season, stopped before it started.
So as you celebrate 'Winter Break' under your 'Dream Tree'

Sipping your Starbucks, listen to me.Choose your words carefully, choose what you say*
Shout MERRY CHRISTMAS ,
Not Happy Holiday !

Please, all Christians join together and
Wish everyone you meet during the Holidays a MERRY CHRISTMAS
Christ is The Reason for the Christ-mas Season!

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 23:37 | Link to Comment ownself
ownself's picture

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