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Rosie On Unemployment
Apologies for reposting in its entirety, but this report has to be read by all to fathom to reality of what is going on out there. One who should not read it is Phil Orlando, who earlier over on CNBC made the 9.7% unemployment number seem like the desperately good thing that Federated Investors has been looking for all these years. Also, Phil apparently missed that those shifting out of U-6 to fill U-1 are , shockingly, increasing on a net basis, which kinda kills his uber-simplistic green shoot argument, but the "argument" being made on CNBC, we will let it slide.
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This morning Steve Liesman said 9.7% is good because it's not 10%.
lmao....maybe he is the turd of which benjamin n. dover
iii spoke today....
reminds me of that stupid fuck congressman
from ca who said
that more national debt was good because
it proved how wealthy we are...
Steve is the king 'nattering nabob of positivity'
Future generations will have have his quotes to chuckle at
Right and every monrning he looks in the mirror and see's Fabio. What a troll and moron.
he is a Deadhead as well, really.
then again, so is Ann Coulter.
We are all not like that. Honest.
She is correct about what she says, just scary as hell.
and do something about that goddamn Adams apple she has
Please stick to the facts. At least her facts are
correct, and verifiable if you bother to take the
time. We are where we are economically because people
like yourself have been too busy being politically
correct.
It's only a flesh wound.
I love Dickensian names ... Lies man.
For all the comparisons to 1929, I am astonished how often the differences in personal debt levels and the percentage of personal income that is government handouts [welfare, unemployment, food stamps etc,] between then and now gets either entirely missed or glossed over.
Just wait when the retailers go out of business after Christmas. Unemployment benefits are ending for many Americans starting this month. It’s going to be a very bad holiday season.
As always, a very good read.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/problem-bank-list-unofficial-s...
keeps growing
imagine how the depositors(sheople) of these banks will be surprised at the fact that FDIC can't close problem banks because FDIC itself is insolvent.
poor sheople.
imagine how the depositors(sheople) of these banks will be surprised at the fact that FDIC can't close problem banks because FDIC itself is insolvent.
poor sheople.
I only feel anger towards sheeple anymore.
My sympathy was used up the day Saturday Night Live and Tina Fey officially ended McCain's chances of winning the presidency.
McCain ended his own chances by picking a know-nothing running mate like Palin... he had my vote up until that point...
McCain was a man with a grand plan.
We all marry rich wives and live happily ever a
after.
Pailin is middle america. Dumb, crooked,
moral with others but not self, deluded by
religion while flaunting her body for fun
and profit.
She is the best VP choice since Spiro a
Agnew and will be the headliner against the
black guy everyone hates in the next election.
Discovered something from the old comment system ZH used to use, something called Disqus (ZH doesn't use this anymore).
I never registered my name with Disqus nor with the old Zerohedge but when I commented on Zero in the good old days (like since the winter) it asked for an email which I obligingly provided. Yesterday I was on another econoblog that uses disqus and to make a comment it required that you register with your email. I registered using the same email address I had used so many times when commenting on the old Zerohedge and presto in my very first post on that site my entire Zerohedge history tagged along. Not that there is anything wrong with that except for the fact that I was not aware my old ZH posts were not only being captured but also linked indirectly to my email address for all to see. So much for anonymity. And looking at some of those old posts circa early March talk about opportunity lost...
In 1929-1936 most Americans had some connection to a farm or grew at least some food locally. We had manufacturing economy. Radio and Television Steel and Oil were fairly young industries that rebounded quickly. Very few people had debt that went beyond a mortgage. Most people lived in close proximity to their employment. Houses were smaller. Air conditioning was unheard of. The dollar was the mighty currency that powered the worlds economy.
Today we export jobs and import oil and automobiles. Our best minds have diverted from engineering goods and services to financial engineering. Most people live more than 3 miles from employment and off mass transit lines. People are in debt up to their eyeballs. Almost no one has a ready local source of food. Houses are huge and spaced widely apart. The dollar is sputtering.
The markets are currently being supported by Fed Intervention. This cannot go on forever, and the day the daisy chain stops, the bagholders will be wiped out. Will the Fed buy Cerberus? It ends somewhere!
Will the Fed buy Cerberus?
Looking at all of the direct and indirect benefit Cerberus has received from the fed and other government agencies in essence I thought the fed already had kept the hell hound alive. I am wondering how it is Cerberus is surviving the massive liquidity loss due to +70% redemptions from their core funds.
Impossible to survive 70% redemptions. I suspect it's just a matter of time (and what a loud thud that will be), but I wouldn't totally rule out your hypothesis.
Only after it buys Citadel.
This is because it is a lot easier to just print money in exchange for goods and services.
This morning Alexis Glick from Fox Business suggested that (and I quote) "9.7% is good because that means more people are trying to re-enter the workforce, which means they are more optimistic, which means things must be getting better... right?"
footnote
Alexis will be replaced in the morning anchor slot by Don Imus come this October. But she will still appear in the 9am slot as she apparently has clout at Fox where she is also a VP.
She's lucky to be on Fox whose ratings killing the other WH networks. I would like to see some of these people unemployed for a year!
I'm so happy, I think I'll slit my wrists today.
"We'll soon find out whether an organism the size of the United States can run an economy based on one family selling the contents of its garage to the family next door." Jim Kunstler
I love Jim Kunstler... that is funny... get out the Masking Tape and Sharpie Marker... start prices high... a minimum of 25 cents so you have room to move down when China brings the item to the register and wants to make a special deal... let Timmy and Benny take turns at the card table with the adding machine and shoebox filled with USD's.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/jobs-contract-20th-st...
add Mish to the blogroll
The future is so bright I'm going to short shades.
long shades, surely? ;)
With all the depressing news and government veils over people's eyes out there. Its really great to log on the website, read more depressing news and then read the comments. the comments are hysterical and its nice to know i'm not the only cynic and current pessimist out there. Awesome!
just be sure to click the ads.
I am not aware of any cynics or pessimists here.
I do however meet lots of smart and aware types who have a knack for cutting through the bullshit like a propane flame torch goes through butter.
Get a zerohedge account and join the mayhem!
oh, the household survey...you know we don't start talking about that one and how very accurate it is in actually measuring jobs lost/gained until the trend is our friend. They won't be pumping that survey until it is showing a gain of a million jobs a month...hopefully, I'll still be alive to see it.
Anybody looked at the Nasdaq this decade vs the Dow 1930s and Japan 1990s? 2008 was worse than 1938 but better than Japan. There's really no difference overall though. It's amazing.
ding, ding , ding to whomever said the administration will extend unemployment benefits. bernstein on cnbc just said as much.
also dope, just defended the b/d model (similar to mark to myth, imho). paraphrasing "it does w wonderful job of capturing data that we would otherwise miss" - wtf?
adminstration doing the full court media cheerlead prior to obama's healthcare speech next week.
i need to start drinking (or getting high) during the day, if i am going to make it through the mid term election cycle.
I have been saying in several posts here that unemployment benefits would be extended....frankly, i think it is a no brainer primarily because of political reasons (there aren't any dems or repubs who are opposed for what should be obvious reasons) and a close second is macroeconomic reasons, which are obvious to zh readers.
looking at it another way, name one politician who would be against an extension.....
i thought it was you but wasn't 100% sure.
it's an easy call cuz politicians love to give money away and what better segment than americans who have lost their job through no fault of their own, can't get a job even at walmart or mcdonalds in many areas, and we have mid term elections coming up. plus as you well know the downward spiral will just accelerate, i.e. more credit card defaults, more food stamp/medicaid costs, blah, blah, blah.
plus, we have mid terms ready to fire up and we are fortunate in the USA in that we have been blessed with many natural resources like printing presses.
Another homerun by Rosie. What else could one ask for in his exceptional analysis? Well, I would love it if he further explained (via another 12 page doozie of a report) in more detail what form this fiscal backdrop takes in order to tackle the labour crisis…any thoughts?
you can get his daily news letter for free (for now) at
https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/index.ncl.html
Thanks but what I intended to say was - what exactly is this fiscal backdrop going to look like and how is it going to tackle the labour crisis?
Sadly they don't seem terribly concerned
about creating more "good " jobs.
It almost makes you wonder if they want
people more dependent on the government.
It gives them more power
The goal of socialism is not to take from one group and give to another group. It is to take from all groups and give to each group in the most controlling way posible.
Was there ever a question that Obama's true goals were to destroy the middle class and subjugate us all to gov't control (for our own good) at which point Obama will turn on the big businesses that pay his way for him and sujugate them?
This madman is ten times more dangerous that Hugo Chavez. He will take down a much bigger country than Chaves did, in far less time if we let him.
Who gotta match?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A6ar44Ecec
Thanks Layne--- I just spent a glorious 20 minutes reliving the 80's.
That put a smile on my face... thanks... should be the ZH theme song...
Heres your ticket pack your bag: time for jumpin overboard
The transportation is here
Close enough but not too far, maybe you know where you are
Fightin fire with fire
Now we just need a ZH mascot...
http://media.photobucket.com/image/beeker/yomomma1975/beeker.jpg
He is fun, but I will put in for this classic bursting into flame.. After all, I wish more of my fellows were here.
http://media.photobucket.com/image/pink%20floyd%20wish%20you%20were%20he...
It was once upon a place sometimes I listen to myself
Gonna come in first place
People on their way to work said baby what did you except
Gonna burst into flame
Funny CB... but exactly how many of the 279 'beeker' photos did you have to sift through before you found this 'perfect' amalgamation...
just typed BEeker ( yeah a typo ) into Google and its on the first page when you search for images LOOOOOOOOL even better http://www.dealbreaker.com/images/entries/Beeker%20Fund.jpg
Classic pic of the day
Problem with Rosie's excellent analysis is that he papers over the positives. Retail sales (which cannot be maniputaed by the government - comes from private companies and unless they are all acting in collusion to report fraudulent numbers, you take it at what it is) fell less than expected (expectations of these optimistic analysts, who if anything, weren't too negative). He mentions this, but papers over it.
If all of those negatives are hampering the consumer, why on earth isn't retail sales not falling off faster? I am a bear and buy into this credit destruction thesis a lot, but want to be open to the idea that I may be wrong - can anyone answer why retail sales is holding up even as Rosie's unemployment picture is so darn weak?
a better measure of retail sales is to review state and local sales tax receipts.
Because we had back to school tax holidays. And people haven't bought stuff in a solid year. I read that people need stuff like new underwear because they literally haven't bought anything in a long time.
This is year one, not year three, of the depression.
Thanks, I figured that tax holidays being pushed to Aug from July might be the answer too. Still, I would look for this to come in worse, a lot worse over the next few months....otherwise one has to be open to the idea that a majority of American consumers are back to their good ol' spending habits (see BofA's study on leveraged consumer - not all of them are in trouble).
Ahem - shouldn't that be "prating pimpers of positivity"? We need a more "alliterate" rendering.
BTW, "nattering nabobs of negativity" was Pat Buchanan's one indisputably great contribution to American politics.
William Safire for Spiro Agnew, actually
Actually Safire and Buchanan are both given credit for writing it for Agnew by time magazine.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,985217,00.html
With the help of White House speechwriters Pat Buchanan and William Safire, Agnew developed a distinctive, jeering speech style that mixed some heavy fun into the contempt.
In a 1969 speech against war protesters, he said, "A spirit of national masochism prevails, encouraged by an effete corps of impudent snobs who characterize themselves as intellectuals." "In the United States today," Agnew told a 1970 audience in San Diego, "we have more than our share of the nattering nabobs of negativism."
Ahem - shouldn't that be "prating pimpers of positivity"? We need a more "alliterate" rendering.
BTW, "nattering nabobs of negativity" was Pat Buchanan's one indisputably great contribution to American politics.
I'm only proof of our improving employment fortunes.
Just last week my old employer called and said I could come back. They said I could return but that this time I'd be a temp at 1/2 my former wage and with no/little benefits.
Better yet, a competitor company called and offered employment with them a couple of weeks ago. Of course, they said I could come over but only as a temp and at 1/2 my former wage with no/little benefits.
I put my 401k into all cash on March 8 after it lost 1/2 its value and Jim Cramer told me to "sell, sell, sell". I finally reinvested it in the stock market today. CNBC told me yesterday "now is the time to buy stocks" so I finally did.
Green shoots everywhere. I don't understand all you Debbie Downers.
Better yet, a nearby aluminum foundry lost all their illegal Mexican help over the summer. They're now hiring real Americans to do the work that illegal Mexicans were doing because Americans once wouldn't pour aluminum for $8/hr, but now we will.
Green shoots are everywhere.
Jeese, Rosie, what a spoil sport--where's the wonder of that indomitable American spirit? Perhaps it's the freeloaders, petty criminals, deadbeats, healthcare advocates and socialists fucking everything up . . .
God Bless America.
Here's the only unemployment chart worth looking at:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/employment-report-216k-jobs-lo...
Second graph in that post, updated monthly of course.
Great read, but... second sentence: "While it is 100% true that the earthquake is behind us..." I don't think so.
Here's the deal: where we are is the stimulus has blunted the blow of a bad credit contraction that was fueling a stupid economy based on housing, Chinese goods, and financial sector madness. Post Labor Day, it will become increasingly clear that the "Throw Borrowed Money at It and Hope It Goes Away" has failed, and that the migration of wounded and dying beasts wandering in to stumble and die in the already overfilled burying grounds of bad assets and bad loans has not abated. This will not go away anytime soon, and the equities market can do its levitation act forever, but it's simply not measuring what is really going on. It is the portion of the economy that is still in 2006 to 2007, disconnected from reality (but not so disconnected that it did not panic and expend a portion of its monstrously bloated political capital to save itself, at our expense, from dying a quick death since last September). Watch your own situation and plan accordingly. At some point, the cavalry simply will not be coming to save the day.
Interesting that China was hinting at intervening in its equity markets... everything is an illusion... nothing is real or solid anymore.
Never mind whether we have a U shaped, V shaped, L shaped, or W shaped recovery, we are going into an A shaped recovery. How about a capital Gamma shaped recovery:
We fundamentally lack a bottom. Without a manufacturing or extraction based economy, we are left with a choice between FIRE and North Korean economies. ( I am excluding boutique economies like those supported by tourism, religion, piracy or tax shelters). Currently Congress and the White House are going North Korean. I want to learn to march like a goose without inducing a hernia, and wear those nifty boots that have all those antiskid studs.
Seriously, we have lost heart to be productive. We are fighting doing anything of meaning with our lives, other than our soldiers and sailors. Perhaps our future is 1984 where we are just soldiers battling Oceania.
I talked to folks in CRE and they are shutting down. This is going over the cliff.
This isn’t the way Willie Sutton did it, of course. But, then, Willie didn’t own the bank.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/2410/historyf.gif
history repeats itself
nice... I am like the cat waiting for the mouse... come on next leg down...
What I find interesting, besides the data & analysis, is that folks like Rosie are abandoning the US to find other homes where their objectivity is taken more seriously. Wall Street economists all preach from the same choir. As such, they all tow the same rosy "green shoots" party line.
So what's the result? Smart folks exit US leaving dumb folks in charge of sheeple investors. A winning combination for a fleecing. At least in the '30's volume was increasing in the bear market rally. Today, volume is decreasing showing the distribution to the sheeple investors. The evidence is right under their noses, but it goes unheeded. Maybe what he failed to mention is never underestimate the stupidity of the public. If there were "stupidity" futures, I'd be all in.
It’s not very hard to tell for whom he’s working. He is not a columnist; he is not an economist, he’s a prostitute
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Not even Elmo's mother can be saved
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9FbZaxa6Jc#t=1m18s
Tyler, you need to have a disclaimer: Do NOT get high and read this
.... kinda ironic how a guy nicknamed rosie is consistently bearish (though accurate)