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Rosie On Why Coming Monetary And Fiscal Contraction Means "Selling In May" May Be Too Late

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We have long claimed that in advance of the great "to be or not to be QE3" decision in June, there will likely be a major market swoon in March/April. The reason for that is that, as David Rosenberg explains in a very coherent fashion, the market will soon realize that the case for another bout of monetization is increasingly shaky: "when you go back to August 2010, when QE2 was announced, U.S. core
inflation was 1.1% and headline was 0.1%; by June of this year, we will
probably be looking at 1.5% on the core and as high as 3% on headline
inflation. That combined with the reality that the S&P 500 is 300
points higher now than it was then would certainly suggest that the case
for extension of the Fed’s QE program will not be there, at least not
by the time QE2 runs its course
. So this is what we would be looking for
in terms of chronology (it may be too late to sell in May this year)." So unlike before, the context this time around will be one of much higher inflation, making the stimulation case that much more difficult. The downside? 300 points of downside due to a marginal hole that will no longer be plugged by the Fed. And with a fiscal contraction coming (for more see Koo's charts from yesterday), one can see why as Rosie says "it may be too late to sell in May this year." We agree that there will be a return to market volatility in the months ahead of June, but we believe that the Fed will have no choice but to continue monetizing sooner or later courtesy of the $4 trillion in bond issuance over the next two years. There is no way around it. What it means for the "inflationary" thesis we leave it up to readers.

From Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg

Fiscal Contraction Is Coming.... This Is A Key Theme

What exactly are the reasons to be bearish on the bond market? Oh yes, fiscal deficits!

Well, if you haven’t yet heard, major budgetary restraint is coming our way in the second half of the year, and so we would recommend that you enjoy whatever fiscal and monetary juice there is left in the blender. There isn’t much that is  for sure. The weekend newspapers were filled with reports of how the conservative wing of the Republican party have banded together to ensure that spending cuts will be in the offing — see In House, Republicans Close to Approving Record Cuts on page A13 of the Saturday NYT. The state and local governments are already putting their restraint into gear — see Wisconsin Leads Way as Workers Fight State Cuts on the front page of said NYT; and Wisconsin Democrats Keep On the Move on  page A3 of the weekend WSJ. First it was Christie’s New Jersey that was a role model in terms of embarking on true fiscal structural reforms. The baton was then passed to Mitch Daniels in Indiana. Now it is Scott Walker in Wisconsin who is the new poster boy for fiscal reforms and necessary restructuring.

What is happening at the lower government level definitely has a grassroots Mike Harris ring to it, and for those that do not know who Mike Harris is go ahead and google him and the ‘Common Sense Revolution’ that gripped Ontario in the 1990s. Yes, it can be done. And shared sacrifice by the civil servant  community, not widespread defaults at the state and municipal level, is going to be the solution — either accept higher contribution rates to your pension, higher payments for your health care, and wage cuts — or lose your job. Sounds like the deals that ultimately got struck across the lean and mean private sector in recent times from the auto sector to the airlines (wasn’t GM at one point nothing more than a health insurance provider?). To think that the President can stick his nose into local government budgetary affairs and accuse Wisconsin of an “assault” on unions (then again, didn’t he once accuse a police officer of being a racist?) at a time when he plans to actually EXPAND the federal government deficit this year to $1.7 trillion is truly remarkable.

In any event, the process towards fiscal integrity will continue unabated and we highly recommend added readings on the topic — see Battle Fuels Wider War Over Labor, Spending and Public-Pension Fight Surfaces in California. The free lunch is over and with it the expectation that there will be sustained growth in domestic spending. Yes, the corporate sector is cash rich but well over half of the so-called $2 trillion of dry powder sitting on U.S. company cash balances are locked in deposits overseas and will not be brought home due to American tax policy (see Why Investors Can’t Get More Cash Out of U.S. Companies on page B1 of the weekend WSJ). And yes, it is a big world out there and most of U.S. sales growth has come from the once-hot overseas economy, but between the massive fiscal restraint in much of Europe and the anti-inflation monetary tightening in the emerging market universe, that gravy train of strengthening domestic demand abroad will be sputtering before long.

What a market trained to focus on this quarter’s earnings reports cannot see right now are the inherently variable lags between policy shifts and the ensuing impact on real economic activity and profits. The investors that chose to focus on the rear and side view mirrors in 2000 and again in 2007, as opposed to looking through the front window, were the ones that emerged as the big losers. The folks that got greedy at the peak and did not lock in that last 13% gain in the S&P 500 in the year to the ultimate 1,565 peak in the fall of 2007, saw those gains totally vanish in front of their eyes in barely more than three months. Easy come, easy go.

Headlines that read On A Roll: Equity Bulls Have Taken Over on page 15 of the FT are sure to lure the last vestiges of investors who have waited, frustratingly, on the sidelines into the market at exactly the wrong time. When strategists concoct reasons why investors should ignore cyclically-adjusted P/E ratios, it conjures up the memory of why it made perfect sense to avoid classic valuation metrics back in 1999 and 2000 and focus on EBITDA and eyeballs per millisecond. Ahhhh ... the pain of “missing out” on a speculative 100% rally has replaced the pain of being involved in a 60% downslide just a short two years ago. Memories are short. That is what we have learned in this gigantic rollercoaster ride. The Fed’s policies, the ones that Bernanke defends, nurtured the post-LTCM rally that took the S&P 500 from 959 on October 8, 1998 (after the Fed cut rates intra-day to save the day) to 1,520 by September 1, 2000. It was a virtual non-stop 60% rally. But liquidity induced rallies only have a certain shelf life. The stimulus did end. The lags kicked in, and by July 2, 2002, the S&P 500 was down to 948 so all the speculative rally was undone and then by October 9th of that year, the S&P 500 had slid all the way down to 776.

The Fed then dug deeper into its bag of tricks and massively re-stimulated until the stock market carved out a bottom and embarked on a 100% rally from that low of 776 to 1,565 on October 9, 2007. The writing had been on the wall for so long but like today, bonds were the enemy and the good times were destined to last forever, didn’t you know. The fear that was rampant on October 9, 2002 had morphed into greed on that same day in 2007. Instead, we had another recession nobody saw coming, and all sorts of reasons to dismiss the overvalued and overextended nature of the market. Those who refused to drink from the Fed’s spiked punchbowl were viewed with the same derision they faced when they were considered old-economy dinosaurs back in 1999-2000. In contrast to rallies based on sound economic fundamentals as we had during the secular bull markets in the past, liquidity-infused rallies are truly dangerous animals and need to be handled with great care and a dose of trepidation because the thing about liquidity is that it is your best friend one day, and a coward the next. So it was with the downdraft from the 1,565 highs in October 2007 to the 676 lows in March of 2009.

Now, after an unprecedented experience of fiscal and monetary ease, ranging from bailouts, to TARP assistance, to guarantees, to government buying of shares, to accounting rule changes, to verbal market manipulation, to massive expansions of the central bank balance sheet, and record levels of deficits and debts, and not just in the U.S.A. but globally, the S&P 500 has soared from 676 to 1,343. It took five years to double in the last cycle; two years this time  around.

What to do, what to do, what to do? If jumping in after a “double” in the last liquidity cycle proved to be the wrong thing to do, what makes anyone think it won’t be the same this time around?

The S&P 500 actually followed the Fed balance sheet more closely last year than anything else ? including the flow of corporate earnings reports. And if the Fed does not embark on QE3 in June, there could be a problem lurking ? especially since the other spigot, fiscal policy, moves from stimulus to restraint in the second half of the year. It would have been nice to have been 100% in equities since the March lows, especially the lowest quality, most expensive and deepest cyclical stocks. Ah, the benefit of hindsight, but one could have said the same in the fall of 2007 ? the ignominy of sitting out a double!! But to throw in the towel at this stage could prove fatal to your wealth and we don’t recommend an overweight position right now. Remain patient. Understand that once things turn, and eventually they do, there will not be anyone to really support the market since practically all fund managers are fully invested and have as much cash on hand as they did at the October 2007 highs.

Our advice is to sit tight, get paid an economic rent, and then opportunistically capitalize on the eventual corrections that are a normal part of any market cycle, and tend to be more pernicious after rallies that were built on sticks and straws of government liquidity than the bricks that are generally laid by organic economic growth and an expanding private sector capital stock.

Sadly, the past recession did not resolve the glaring imbalances permeating the U.S. economy. By expanding their balance sheets, the Federal government and Federal Reserve have really only managed to create an illusion of prosperity. Maybe this is what they have to do ? buy as much time as possible. Kick the can down the road just far enough in the hope that something ignites the economy to the point that growth can be sustained without reliance on government-administered steroids. Printing money does not create wealth. It actually risks eroding real purchasing power. And governments may be able to redistribute income but in no way can create it ? government’s tax, spend and borrow. The national debt is now $1.41 trillion.

The United States is a 236-year old country, and almost 40% of the entire public sector debt has been built up by the current Administration in barely more than two years. The United States has a monetary base of $2.06 trillion, and nearly 60% of that has been created since Helicopter Ben took over the cockpit in early 2006. A 236 year-old country, and well over half of the stock of money has been created in just the past half-decade. Remarkable. Maybe the real question we should be asking is why the stock market has only managed to double from the lows with all this massive intervention?

Well, as Dandy Don used to bellow out on Monday evening blowouts back in the 70s and 80s, “turn out the lights, the party’s over. They say that all good things must end ...”

Indeed, while every economist has raised the 2011 GDP forecast because of the fiscal stimulus initiated late last year, nobody has adjusted their projections for the looming fiscal drag. Not only that, but it is becoming crystal clear that the Treasury debt ceiling is going to emerge as a potentially destabilizing issue very soon ? see U.S. Faces Deadlock Over Budget on page 3 of the weekend FT as well as Deficit War May Lead to Gov’t Shutdown on the front page of Monday’s Investor’s Business Daily.

As for monetary policy, inflation is simply going to be too high for the Fed to be able to embark on QE3 as early as June, which is when QE2 expires and this is too bad for the bulls because it is very evident that the liquidity rush had a much bigger impact on equity valuation since the end of last summer than either the economy or earnings did ? see Betting on Ben: Central Banks Have Been Supporting Share Prices in the always excellent Buttonwood column in the Economist (page 83). Caveat emptor. At the same time, QE2 has only been a success in terms of generating a speculative and liquidity-induced rally in equities, it has not helped redress the dismal job market backdrop ? the decline in the labour force participation rate did a far better job in pulling the unemployment rate down than Fed policy ever did.

The Fed’s policies, by triggering a pro-risk investment landscape, led to money being pulled out of the bond market to such an extent that mortgage rates have skyrocketed back above 5% and thereby further impaired the housing market. At the same time, the Fed’s policies have at least played a partial role in stimulating this most recent up-leg in commodity markets, and this in turn has an impact on real consumer spending since the surge in food and fuel prices in particular will exert a negative impact on discretionary expenditures. All the more so after the fourth quarter drop in the savings rate, which looked to be one part wealth effect and one part pent-up demand (the recovery is six quarters old and Q4 was the only one that could remotely be called decent as far as consumer expenditure growth is concerned).

But from the spreading political turmoil in the Middle East to real spending power here at home, there is no question that the global food crisis is a real game-changer as far as the macro and market forecast is concerned. Current corn stockpiles now represent 4% of annual consumption, according to the WSJ, perilously below the 15-year average of 13.5%. This is a shortfall equivalent to around 10 million acres. Look at the ingredients of any packaged food and you will see something related to either corn, or soybean, where there is an estimated four million acre shortfall. In turn, this is one reason ? inflation ? as to why the emerging equity markets have so woefully underperformed so far this year ? down 3.5% versus the 5% advance in developed markets. Inflation in China is around 5% (and likely under-reported) and 8% in India. And when you go back to August 2010, when QE2 was announced, U.S. core inflation was 1.1% and headline was 0.1%; by June of this year, we will probably be looking at 1.5% on the core and as high as 3% on headline inflation. That combined with the reality that the S&P 500 is 300 points higher now than it was then would certainly suggest that the case for extension of the Fed’s QE program will not be there, at least not by the time QE2 runs its course. So this is what we would be looking for in terms of chronology (it may be too late to sell in May this year).

  • March: Irish elections. Default back on the table. Euro weakens. Flows into front end of the Treasury curve.
  • April: Debt ceiling is hit. Political gridlock in vogue. Market volatility ensues. Gold and silver firm.
  • June: End of QE2. Stock market wobbles like it did last year under similar conditions. Bonds and the U.S. dollar rally. High-beta stocks slip.
  • July: Start of fiscal year for state and local governments. Big retrenchment begins and takes a bite out of economic activity.
  • October: End of fiscal year for the federal government. Fiscal restraint replaces three years of radical fiscal expansion. Big rally in bonds. U.S. dollar should firm up too.
  • December: The payroll tax cut and the bonus depreciation allowance both expire, creating a huge air pocket for first quarter growth in 2011. Talk of recession accelerates. Bull flattener in Treasuries likely to ensue. Equities will still be in corrective mode as double-dip risks re-enter the market mindset.

And keep in mind, recessions and near-recessions do occur in election years: 1960, 1964, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1992, 2000, and 2008 are examples.

Besides the sluggish labour market environment, rising food and energy prices, which is one-quarter of the spending bucket, renewed deflation in residential real estate values and the sudden loss of fiscal and monetary policy support that is around the corner, another impediment to a sustained spending cycle in the U.S.A. is the very poor financial shape that the boomer population finds itself in after years of spending far above its means (which is one reason why it seems so incredulous to read Bernanke Defends U.S. Policies on page A6 of the weekend WSJ seeing as Fed policies over the years have increasingly been geared to fuelling excessive consumption via asset inflation).

Have a read of the sad but true article on the front page of the WSJ (weekend edition) titled Retiring Boomers Find 401(k) Plans Fall Short. The statistic in there was pretty scary but it does tell us that the savings rate will resume the upward trend that was temporarily broken last year. The median household headed by a person between the ages of 60 and 62 with a 401(k) account has put away less than one-quarter of what is needed to meet their standard-of-living needs in retirement. Yikes. Remember, there are 78 million boomers that are going to turn from being net borrowers and spenders towards net creditors and savers. This is definitely bullish for long-duration bonds, by the way, which is the most detested asset class on the planet right now, confirmed by the latest Merrill Lynch survey of global portfolio managers.

 

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Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:41 | 985252 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Rosie = fail

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:56 | 985305 Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

LOL. Rosie said sell in May: May 2009. Back then this doofus said the S&P was overvalued "by 35%." This is when the S&P was about 850.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:43 | 985553 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

unemployment and housing will insure QE3... no matter what the stock market does, as long as we have unions, incompetent state governments, and non accountability, we will have QE3.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:57 | 985310 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

+1.  When was the last time this BearTard was right? Oh yeah, previous to March '09.  Post-3/09= ZERO.

 

Oh well, I'm sure he'll continue BearTarding it up and, eventually, he'll get it right, like a broken clock. 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:01 | 985331 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

problem is that a broken clock is correct twice a day

Rosie is perhaps right once a decade, maybe once a lifetime

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 14:41 | 985566 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Indeed, you're right about Rosie's perspicacity, it's almost Prechter-like in total wrongness.  How's this guy still even have a job?

Uh oh, looks like we've been junked for insufficient ardor toward the BearTardish point of view.  Not that I'm unsympatheic to the bearish point of view, I just don't slavishly follow those who are consistently wrong.  Bull or Bear.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:58 | 985315 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Well, you can't blame a man for trying to make sense of it all, it is a complex picture that we are all looking at.

Would I go long bonds?  Hell no, increasing demand for something is completely different from getting your principal back upon maturity!  Completely unrelated to each other! 

Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute:

http://www.capitalresearchinstitute.org

What makes Gold money?

The last few weeks the Capital Research Institute has looked at a wide range of issues, from food inflation to unreliable government statistics to different forms of wealth.  Today we look at one of the crucial issues of our time, is gold money?  What is it about gold that makes it arguably THE best choice to serve as money?

Well, before answering that, it would perhaps be wise to do a  quick refresher course on the system currently in place.   The US dollar currently acts as world reserve currency.  This means that the ‘strength’ of the US dollar underpins the entire world economy.  If you want to buy oil, sorry, you have to buy US dollars in order to buy the oil!  And the value of the US dollar is merely a function of how many dollars are in circulation, how much demand is there, and how much faith people still have in the US Government.

Hold on, faith in the US government? ....

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:04 | 985648 arkady
arkady's picture

Rosie's call was probably correct back then, but who could have possibly guessed that Genocide Ben was going to go all in with QE2?  Like Rosie correctly pointed out the last few months have been a liquidity pumped rally and his thesis, is that if and when this pump ends, then equities have to at least naturally retrace the fake support that was provided by our Fed. 

Once again, assuming Ben does not invent more tricks this market is done.  Stick a fork in it.  

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:39 | 985802 morph
morph's picture

Well this is the thing with the current rally. It's a greater fools rally. It's nothing to do with underlying value, just the idea that in the future there will be more and more liquidity with no where to go thus buying now is a good idea.

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:56 | 985853 arkady
arkady's picture

Agreed, so Rosie is merely pointing out an end to this rally absence of any additional stupidity courtesy of Genocide Ben.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:40 | 985253 philgramm
philgramm's picture

I call bullshit!!!!  QE to infinity mofo!!!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:03 | 985270 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Speaking of POMO, Is the POMO Dept back from their day off yet? I needs a Cusip # so i can BTFD.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:44 | 985258 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

But anything north of 120ish $ oil will cause everything to deflate.

That is the balancing act in this end-game.

the dance of Oil Vs Fiat.

With PMs conducting the orchestra.

Edit: Just struck me that this is what the BDI was forecasting.

Look for a big DOWn day this week. To much downdraft to fight.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/21/through-a-lens-darkly/

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:12 | 985379 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

soaring oil prices cause deflation?  really?  take a trip to india regional indian.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:07 | 985657 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Right here dis...

Only the heavy hand of govt. control keeps prices at bay. Plus, tons of credit sloshing int he market. Not a true indicator. by the way, this way of life is new to us and will collapse easily.

ORI

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:44 | 985266 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Europe is turning positive. We will probably be up before the day is over. It's all roses and sunshine.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:47 | 985278 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Rosie, as usual is right, well if the FEDs wont be and POMO neither!

IMHO best way to "play" this "market" is stay in physical PMs,

short the rest via UeberLeap Puts, 2012-2013! All else in cash as I don't trust the GOV!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:47 | 985279 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

toby in the white house.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:50 | 985283 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

This is my last week of trading equities.

Then its time for Spring Break, Mardi Gras, and green beer.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:50 | 985286 fahmahbob
fahmahbob's picture

OT, but What would this do to inflation?

 

http://www.i-sis.org.uk/newPathogenInRoundupReadyGMCrops.php

'The letter, written by Don Huber, professor emeritus at Purdue University, to Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, warns of a pathogen “new to science” discovered by “a team of senior plant and animal scientists”. Huber says it should be treated as an “emergency’’, as it could result in “a collapse of US soy and corn export markets and significant disruption of domestic food and feed supplies.”'

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:13 | 985383 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Great link. Thanks, this could be colossal.

Rosie is an idjut. QEII has no end date- it will just be extended to offset the continued collapse of the shadow banking liabilities. Sounds like market propaganda to suppost some volitility so the market makers can steal from someone else for a change.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:45 | 985559 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

If true, it would probably shut down all GM crops...  the central issue in a few cases (liberty link corn and now liberty link rice) is the release of test case GM crops in the general food supply...  essentially, there is no testing at the farmer level and the crops are commingled in storage facilities...  eventually, they get tested but its too late...  In other words, the risk of cross polinization and volunteers would be too significant...  would require incredible cleaning costs...

As a result, a lot of the big producers have moved their growing/seed facilities offshore...  south/central american countries are getting a lot of the slack.

Why is it that technology always requires a tradeoff?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:46 | 985828 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Perhaps, because it's flawed? Technology always assumes it is master and commander of the universe, when the reality is that our ignorance exceeds our understanding.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 14:46 | 986013 Oh regional Indian
Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:06 | 985296 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Comrades,

Buy "common date" silver Morgan and Peace dollars now!

One can still find cheap coins at antique malls.

I just bought 20 silver dollars for $23.50 each.

A fist full of silver dollars borders on erotic! Wow!

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:55 | 985304 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

How about that Case-Schiller index!

Man, housing prices are finally showing signs of recovery, aren't they?

 

Pretty soon, the banks and investment houses which give Bernanke his marching orders,

they won't have to use mark-to-myth anymore, they really will be solvent,

won't they?

 

Who needs hyperinflation?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:57 | 985313 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

OT: google audio ads on ZH becoming unbearable. I can't take it any more.

it's just too much. I'm being bombarded.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:58 | 985317 fahmahbob
fahmahbob's picture

FireFox with AdBlock+ add-on. No more ads.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:05 | 985344 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I second that.  Get Firefox and the add-on Ad Blocker Plus to make it very clear.  Also No-Script java script blocker is essential.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:14 | 985387 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I have it. It's not helping. I keep getting the same loud as hell annoying ad over and over and over here on ZH. Not happening to me on any other site at all...only here.

It's annoying enough to make me walk away from here for a while.

sad. fucking google bullshit.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:26 | 985474 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

it works if you load this (as unseemly as downloading from a site named http://www.fanboy.co.nz/  might appear to be ) it is legit

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:14 | 985705 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

You should check your settings because you probably need to subscirbe to a better block list.  The add-on needs to be told, so to speak, what to block.  It doesn't just block everything.  Especially if you are outside the U.S. you'd need to check  it.  I would uninstall it and reinstall it and subscribe to a different block list.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:00 | 985321 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Either way (QE or no more QE)  PMs, especially silver (gold ratio imbalance), and commodities going up.  People still need to survive and those working are much more efficient now.  

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:01 | 985327 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Quadaffi standing in a broken building all by himself screeming: "Libya will lead America, Asia and the whole world!  we can not be stoped!"

 

LOL

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:01 | 985332 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Ben will need a crisis to justify QE3: Will it be "unprecedented" unrest in the Middle East, the Wisconsin pitchfork, torch, and cheese-head brigade's continued "sit in" in Madison, continued deflation in the housing market, or will it just be Soros calling him on the red phone complaining of a migraine?

Easiest thing might be to just let QE2 end resulting in a flash crash that even Waddell and Reed could be proud of, then just roll out QE3 to save the day. http://therookiecynic.wordpress.com/

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:07 | 985356 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

LOL, when I think of QE ending, I imagine Ben crying this quote from An Officer and Gentlemen:

"I got nowhere else to go...I got nowhere else to go..."

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:01 | 985333 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Faber says oil trumps stocks too - I'm getting my Bear-ON and don't care who knows it:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41713182

 

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:06 | 985347 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

If they don't do QE3, America will fall sooner rather than later.  Maybe they won't announce it, like they failed to announce the 11 trillion in loans they made during the crisis, but they will surely do it.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:27 | 985478 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Good point. No one ever gets to see the Fed's actual accounting after all. PDs can mark assets to "whatever the hell we want them to be." Who knows, they may have printed up double what's been anounced and we'd never know...until it's wheelbarrow to the grocery store time, that is. It's really quite frightening to be honest.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:05 | 985348 6 String
6 String's picture

Yep, Zh.

Bernake is already blaming congress for the next round of money printing, saying what they are doing is unsustainable and "what can't go on forever won't."

In other words, despite his responsibility in all this, he will coyly blame congress that he has to do further QE, otherwise he would have stopped on his own volition.

Bernake has the perfect scape-goat. Per ususal, there will be a complete abdication of all responibilites when this whole thing comes down from every single man and woman alive....

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:07 | 985351 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

This is the point isn't it. If Bernanke can keep the government going without Congress raising the debt ceiling, why should they raise it? Why not make a completely symbolic statement of committment to the Tea Party and middle America, while the Fed chief runs through the various iterations of QE, until at some point the Congress does raise the limit, and really what does it matter anymore. If I was an Rep I would take the soundbite, and let BB kick the can down the road?

 

As to the other side of this inflation equation, we of course have the monetization exploits of Chairman Bernanke.  Not only is his current QE II asset purchase program large enough to fund 100% of the government’s funding requirements through June, but it remains open ended, dependent as it is on incoming economic data:

http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/2011/02/19/monetary-watch-february-2011-obamas-budget-the-gop-and-its-implications-on-us-inflation/

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:25 | 985457 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I agree.  He's already lied to Congress about doing it which means he knows its illegal.  To "do it again" says to me he's willing to "take the consequences" and means blaming Congress is off limits now.  Clearly if we're playing pure party politics and nothing more the Republicans would be fools not to shut down the government "in the name of an oil emergency"at a minimum.  And that is a contractual provision btw. In other words "it's legal."  Buffet called them "weapons of financial mass destruction" and we have Greece, Ireland and Egypt to now prove it.  We will now have a million man march in Cairo which is far bigger news than anything this clown Khadaffi can do as "he has 2 million abused Egyptians" in his own country to worry about.  Maybe Bernanke's just the monetary equivalent of a heroin addict?  "It's his evil twin skippy"?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:07 | 985358 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

I can't see why The Bernank will end POMO.  He's all in on feeding his buddies and damn the inflation outcome.  Anyway, announced inflation is being kept in check by lies while real inflation is dancing a jig.  Carry on.  Liquidity rules!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:13 | 985386 trav7777
trav7777's picture

61B in "cuts" is not fiscal restraint.

Fiscal restraint in the sense that these people mean it is absurd.

The issue is really the amount of illegitimate debt out there, which cannot ever be repaid.  These states that are now renegotiating their pensions and salaries- how much is their yearly DEBT payment, and how much money did they squander over decades rather than set aside for pension obligations?  In every case, we will find sovereigns that are in debt to their eyeballs and who underfunded pensions, preferring instead to route the cash to cronies and themselves

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:01 | 985625 Goldfinger
Goldfinger's picture

 + 14trillion of fraud debt.

Trav has it right.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 19:09 | 986754 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

++++++++

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:14 | 985392 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Walmart sales decined for 7th straight quarter.  Recovery in action!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:34 | 985513 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Wal mart is hurting for various reasons but the deflation monster is just letting us know he is still around.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:17 | 985716 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

So when Walmart offers a product that is smaller in size for the same price that is deflation?  They have been "deflationists" by way of forcing suppliers to lower their prices for years I didn't see anyone complaining about deflation then.

You've been brainwashed by the Leo/Central Bankster/Propagandists of the world into thinking deflation would be bad.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:15 | 985399 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

So when it all crashes, Uncle Ben will certainly take the Werner von Braun defense:  My job was to launch V-2, where it came down was not my department.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:38 | 985529 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

and there were no guidance devices on those things. I think Bernanke can make that defense, (a hollow defense) that his monetary expansion wasn't directed toward the benefit or detriment of any one group, but at that point uncontrollable laughter breaks out.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:29 | 985773 Bam_Man
Tue, 02/22/2011 - 19:05 | 986742 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Poisoning Pigeons In The Park, and maybe we'll do in a squirel or two.......

 

Love that guy!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:16 | 985403 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Ben can just recycle some Iraq war rhetoric.

 

We must stay the course

Don't listen to the defeatists

We will not cut and run

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 14:38 | 985976 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Opponents of QE3 hate freedom.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:17 | 985404 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Shouldn't everyone at this juncture, and especially considering our failed policies on everything economic, energy, and social, begin to question what the real agenda is in the minds of the FED and the Administration?

As an aside, for all of you who follow the wisdom of Martin Armstrong, don't forget that he sees a pivotal point on or about June 13 this year.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:28 | 985466 squexx
squexx's picture

He saw a critical juncture last October and they POMO'd the shit out of it!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:16 | 985407 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Bbbbut Mish said we were going to have deflation!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:29 | 985488 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Mish, like Rosie is a smart guy but is fixated  and suffers from  obsessive deflationist disorder

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:19 | 985423 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Just another piece about our Grand National Distraction. While the filthy fucking bankers escape un noticed. Thank gawd for ZH, Rosie, and everyone of those tin foil hat wearing mf'ers I know- that convinced me that all of these symptoms, were inevitable... While those theiving parasites escaped undetected. http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2011/02/we-have-seen-enemy-they-...

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:21 | 985438 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Most of his argument is centered around state spending which has nothing to do with QE. Should the states crack down and vastly cut back on spending that just drives down federal tax revenue and increases federal spending via UI (feds have backstopped unemployment insurance to date) thus increasing the need to monetize the federal debt.

Also, I keep hearing the QE 2 stops in June but that is not my understanding of the language in QE 2. I don't believe that they specified and ending to that program, anyone have specific knowledge on this point?

The whole debate comes down to the political question of how the U.S. will default. If they choose outright default then they will stop QE, allow interest rates to go through the roof trying to roll 4 trillion in gov't debt sales and default almost immediately with a busted auction. If they choose via inflation then they will continue QE, suppress interest rates, manipulate inflation markers and kick the can down the road.

The CPI is managed to show very little inflation. This gives me an indication they plan to proceed with more QE. They could show a 10% inflation rate tomorrrow if they were interested in presenting an argument to stop QE.

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:30 | 985503 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

We may have seen the lows in the dollar. The deflation monster is coming back if they stop qe

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:32 | 985505 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Or is the real question "how the US will invade"?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:53 | 985596 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

The whole debate comes down to the political question of how the U.S. will default.

 

I'm betting on the Argentine solution. They made the government bond holders take a 50% haircut, (many of them Italian widows and orphans), and the stock market washed out completely. Then outsiders with cash came and bought up the Merval. Those who either held their stocks, or bought at the bottom, made a foturne on the turn, which only took about a year, and values were back to normal. 

So if Obama had to screw someone who would it be?

Should you own stocks, but should you buy stocks when the bottom falls out?

That's tough just because who will be left? Argentina was a small economy in the global scheme of things, but if you take a haircut on your bonds, you'll never get it back.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:44 | 985561 Ted K
Ted K's picture

Governor Jerry Brown out in California has taken on some huge sacred cows in the California state budget.  What, he gets no kudos/applause because he has (D) by his name???? Rosie keeps this up I'm gonna think he's as much of a prick on budget hypocrisy as Wisconsin's Paul Ryan.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:08 | 985674 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Fiscal restraint from Washington? Not likely.

No QE3? Whats he smokin'?

Fail.....

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:21 | 985743 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Wow! David Rosenberg throws cold water on an overheated market that is drunk on the Fed's printed prosperity! We can not defy the laws of sound economics forever, and the debt can just keeps getting more leaden each time we kick it!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:50 | 985836 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

Dave was probably that guy in college that would barge in your room and ask how the ghonorea is doing and what your girlfriend back home thinks of a new TV show while you're in the middle of trying to get into some drunk chick's pants.

Bet he got canned from Meryll for cock-blocking at office parties rather than his research or outlook.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:38 | 985799 Bob
Bob's picture

Maybe the real question we should be asking is why the stock market has only managed to double from the lows with all this massive intervention?

Indeed.  It remains to be answered, apparently, when/if QE3 does not materialize. 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:42 | 985812 ivars
ivars's picture

Selling has to start today, there may be short term buying in May when peak oil reduces pressure on markets for few months,  and then final sell for 2011 in July-August.

Here is the chart I made on Feb 6th taking into account long term decooperation reaction of markets and people after cooperation caused ( herding, globalization) BIG crisis.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2608

The second chart is Oil, and it seems to be spot on with first maximum coming to beginning of March:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2609

Thinking behind these graphs is here:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=0

 

 

 

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:44 | 985825 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

Remember, there are 78 million boomers that are going to turn from being net borrowers and spenders towards net creditors and savers.

Does this seem ass-backwards to anyone else?  WTF are you talking about rosie?  If retiring boomers haven't saved by retirement it sort of defeats the point doesn't it?

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 14:43 | 985990 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

jim willie made the case long ago for perpetual qe and so far he has been proven correct....we are on the 3d iteration of that fucktarded bankster serving policy and like a wild roller coaster you can't get off.....

the fed owns vast tracts of the usa economy and its so-called securities....it must continue unto utter destruction the protection of the ginormous buckets of shit it has purchased to "save" the economy...there is no market for usa paper...were it not for the repudiation of mark to market the fed would be formally insolvent....it is insolvent today and has been since 2008....

once the fucktards of the financial world recognize this fact, it will ignite the fuse on irs....at that point, even aluminum foil will be valuable currency.....lord only knows how much i have stuffed away under my hat....

i have stated since 2008 and continue to state without equivocation that the usa economy is in tatters and has been destroyed by the best and the brightest as a matter of policy....it has taken 40 years since august 15, 1971 but the day of reckoning for the stupid policies of johnson/nixon has come home to roost....

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 16:19 | 986235 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

The whole premise is based on the Fed discontinuing QE efforts, and if they do I think he's probably accurate, so the big question is whether they will or not.

I know there's mounting pressure in DC to not raise debt ceiling but I think it will probably fail when the fear tactics are dragged back into the picture and threats are made about martial law in the streets. Then again how susceptible are we to these threats any more?

The only way this can go on is for the Fed to continue to infinity, otherwise downside here we come.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 17:11 | 986393 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

The assumption that QE3 will not be thrust upon us is key. I doubt it - I think Ben will proceed on schedule with QE3 to keep the party rolling.  Who is going to stop him?  Who does QE benefit?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 17:50 | 986528 Victor Berry
Victor Berry's picture

About a week ago, Jim Chanos bet Steve Liesman on CNBC that QE3 would happen.  Chanos even gave Liesman 5:1 odds in favor of it.

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