Rosie On Why Coming Monetary And Fiscal Contraction Means "Selling In May" May Be Too Late

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Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:41 | 985252 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Rosie = fail

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:56 | 985305 Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

LOL. Rosie said sell in May: May 2009. Back then this doofus said the S&P was overvalued "by 35%." This is when the S&P was about 850.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:43 | 985553 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

unemployment and housing will insure QE3... no matter what the stock market does, as long as we have unions, incompetent state governments, and non accountability, we will have QE3.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:57 | 985310 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

+1.  When was the last time this BearTard was right? Oh yeah, previous to March '09.  Post-3/09= ZERO.

 

Oh well, I'm sure he'll continue BearTarding it up and, eventually, he'll get it right, like a broken clock. 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:01 | 985331 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

problem is that a broken clock is correct twice a day

Rosie is perhaps right once a decade, maybe once a lifetime

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 14:41 | 985566 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Indeed, you're right about Rosie's perspicacity, it's almost Prechter-like in total wrongness.  How's this guy still even have a job?

Uh oh, looks like we've been junked for insufficient ardor toward the BearTardish point of view.  Not that I'm unsympatheic to the bearish point of view, I just don't slavishly follow those who are consistently wrong.  Bull or Bear.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:58 | 985315 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Well, you can't blame a man for trying to make sense of it all, it is a complex picture that we are all looking at.

Would I go long bonds?  Hell no, increasing demand for something is completely different from getting your principal back upon maturity!  Completely unrelated to each other! 

Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute:

http://www.capitalresearchinstitute.org

What makes Gold money?

The last few weeks the Capital Research Institute has looked at a wide range of issues, from food inflation to unreliable government statistics to different forms of wealth.  Today we look at one of the crucial issues of our time, is gold money?  What is it about gold that makes it arguably THE best choice to serve as money?

Well, before answering that, it would perhaps be wise to do a  quick refresher course on the system currently in place.   The US dollar currently acts as world reserve currency.  This means that the ‘strength’ of the US dollar underpins the entire world economy.  If you want to buy oil, sorry, you have to buy US dollars in order to buy the oil!  And the value of the US dollar is merely a function of how many dollars are in circulation, how much demand is there, and how much faith people still have in the US Government.

Hold on, faith in the US government? ....

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:04 | 985648 arkady
arkady's picture

Rosie's call was probably correct back then, but who could have possibly guessed that Genocide Ben was going to go all in with QE2?  Like Rosie correctly pointed out the last few months have been a liquidity pumped rally and his thesis, is that if and when this pump ends, then equities have to at least naturally retrace the fake support that was provided by our Fed. 

Once again, assuming Ben does not invent more tricks this market is done.  Stick a fork in it.  

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:39 | 985802 morph
morph's picture

Well this is the thing with the current rally. It's a greater fools rally. It's nothing to do with underlying value, just the idea that in the future there will be more and more liquidity with no where to go thus buying now is a good idea.

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:56 | 985853 arkady
arkady's picture

Agreed, so Rosie is merely pointing out an end to this rally absence of any additional stupidity courtesy of Genocide Ben.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:40 | 985253 philgramm
philgramm's picture

I call bullshit!!!!  QE to infinity mofo!!!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:03 | 985270 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Speaking of POMO, Is the POMO Dept back from their day off yet? I needs a Cusip # so i can BTFD.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:44 | 985258 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

But anything north of 120ish $ oil will cause everything to deflate.

That is the balancing act in this end-game.

the dance of Oil Vs Fiat.

With PMs conducting the orchestra.

Edit: Just struck me that this is what the BDI was forecasting.

Look for a big DOWn day this week. To much downdraft to fight.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/21/through-a-lens-darkly/

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:12 | 985379 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

soaring oil prices cause deflation?  really?  take a trip to india regional indian.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:07 | 985657 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Right here dis...

Only the heavy hand of govt. control keeps prices at bay. Plus, tons of credit sloshing int he market. Not a true indicator. by the way, this way of life is new to us and will collapse easily.

ORI

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:44 | 985266 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Europe is turning positive. We will probably be up before the day is over. It's all roses and sunshine.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:47 | 985278 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Rosie, as usual is right, well if the FEDs wont be and POMO neither!

IMHO best way to "play" this "market" is stay in physical PMs,

short the rest via UeberLeap Puts, 2012-2013! All else in cash as I don't trust the GOV!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:47 | 985279 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

toby in the white house.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:50 | 985283 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

This is my last week of trading equities.

Then its time for Spring Break, Mardi Gras, and green beer.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:50 | 985286 fahmahbob
fahmahbob's picture

OT, but What would this do to inflation?

 

http://www.i-sis.org.uk/newPathogenInRoundupReadyGMCrops.php

'The letter, written by Don Huber, professor emeritus at Purdue University, to Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, warns of a pathogen “new to science” discovered by “a team of senior plant and animal scientists”. Huber says it should be treated as an “emergency’’, as it could result in “a collapse of US soy and corn export markets and significant disruption of domestic food and feed supplies.”'

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:13 | 985383 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Great link. Thanks, this could be colossal.

Rosie is an idjut. QEII has no end date- it will just be extended to offset the continued collapse of the shadow banking liabilities. Sounds like market propaganda to suppost some volitility so the market makers can steal from someone else for a change.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:45 | 985559 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

If true, it would probably shut down all GM crops...  the central issue in a few cases (liberty link corn and now liberty link rice) is the release of test case GM crops in the general food supply...  essentially, there is no testing at the farmer level and the crops are commingled in storage facilities...  eventually, they get tested but its too late...  In other words, the risk of cross polinization and volunteers would be too significant...  would require incredible cleaning costs...

As a result, a lot of the big producers have moved their growing/seed facilities offshore...  south/central american countries are getting a lot of the slack.

Why is it that technology always requires a tradeoff?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:46 | 985828 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Perhaps, because it's flawed? Technology always assumes it is master and commander of the universe, when the reality is that our ignorance exceeds our understanding.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 14:46 | 986013 Oh regional Indian
Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:06 | 985296 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Comrades,

Buy "common date" silver Morgan and Peace dollars now!

One can still find cheap coins at antique malls.

I just bought 20 silver dollars for $23.50 each.

A fist full of silver dollars borders on erotic! Wow!

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:55 | 985304 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

How about that Case-Schiller index!

Man, housing prices are finally showing signs of recovery, aren't they?

 

Pretty soon, the banks and investment houses which give Bernanke his marching orders,

they won't have to use mark-to-myth anymore, they really will be solvent,

won't they?

 

Who needs hyperinflation?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:57 | 985313 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

OT: google audio ads on ZH becoming unbearable. I can't take it any more.

it's just too much. I'm being bombarded.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 11:58 | 985317 fahmahbob
fahmahbob's picture

FireFox with AdBlock+ add-on. No more ads.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:05 | 985344 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I second that.  Get Firefox and the add-on Ad Blocker Plus to make it very clear.  Also No-Script java script blocker is essential.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:14 | 985387 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I have it. It's not helping. I keep getting the same loud as hell annoying ad over and over and over here on ZH. Not happening to me on any other site at all...only here.

It's annoying enough to make me walk away from here for a while.

sad. fucking google bullshit.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:26 | 985474 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

it works if you load this (as unseemly as downloading from a site named http://www.fanboy.co.nz/  might appear to be ) it is legit

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:14 | 985705 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

You should check your settings because you probably need to subscirbe to a better block list.  The add-on needs to be told, so to speak, what to block.  It doesn't just block everything.  Especially if you are outside the U.S. you'd need to check  it.  I would uninstall it and reinstall it and subscribe to a different block list.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:00 | 985321 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Either way (QE or no more QE)  PMs, especially silver (gold ratio imbalance), and commodities going up.  People still need to survive and those working are much more efficient now.  

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:01 | 985327 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Quadaffi standing in a broken building all by himself screeming: "Libya will lead America, Asia and the whole world!  we can not be stoped!"

 

LOL

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:01 | 985332 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Ben will need a crisis to justify QE3: Will it be "unprecedented" unrest in the Middle East, the Wisconsin pitchfork, torch, and cheese-head brigade's continued "sit in" in Madison, continued deflation in the housing market, or will it just be Soros calling him on the red phone complaining of a migraine?

Easiest thing might be to just let QE2 end resulting in a flash crash that even Waddell and Reed could be proud of, then just roll out QE3 to save the day. http://therookiecynic.wordpress.com/

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:07 | 985356 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

LOL, when I think of QE ending, I imagine Ben crying this quote from An Officer and Gentlemen:

"I got nowhere else to go...I got nowhere else to go..."

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:01 | 985333 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Faber says oil trumps stocks too - I'm getting my Bear-ON and don't care who knows it:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41713182

 

 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:06 | 985347 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

If they don't do QE3, America will fall sooner rather than later.  Maybe they won't announce it, like they failed to announce the 11 trillion in loans they made during the crisis, but they will surely do it.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:27 | 985478 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Good point. No one ever gets to see the Fed's actual accounting after all. PDs can mark assets to "whatever the hell we want them to be." Who knows, they may have printed up double what's been anounced and we'd never know...until it's wheelbarrow to the grocery store time, that is. It's really quite frightening to be honest.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:05 | 985348 6 String
6 String's picture

Yep, Zh.

Bernake is already blaming congress for the next round of money printing, saying what they are doing is unsustainable and "what can't go on forever won't."

In other words, despite his responsibility in all this, he will coyly blame congress that he has to do further QE, otherwise he would have stopped on his own volition.

Bernake has the perfect scape-goat. Per ususal, there will be a complete abdication of all responibilites when this whole thing comes down from every single man and woman alive....

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:07 | 985351 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

This is the point isn't it. If Bernanke can keep the government going without Congress raising the debt ceiling, why should they raise it? Why not make a completely symbolic statement of committment to the Tea Party and middle America, while the Fed chief runs through the various iterations of QE, until at some point the Congress does raise the limit, and really what does it matter anymore. If I was an Rep I would take the soundbite, and let BB kick the can down the road?

 

As to the other side of this inflation equation, we of course have the monetization exploits of Chairman Bernanke.  Not only is his current QE II asset purchase program large enough to fund 100% of the government’s funding requirements through June, but it remains open ended, dependent as it is on incoming economic data:

http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/2011/02/19/monetary-watch-february-2011-obamas-budget-the-gop-and-its-implications-on-us-inflation/

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:25 | 985457 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I agree.  He's already lied to Congress about doing it which means he knows its illegal.  To "do it again" says to me he's willing to "take the consequences" and means blaming Congress is off limits now.  Clearly if we're playing pure party politics and nothing more the Republicans would be fools not to shut down the government "in the name of an oil emergency"at a minimum.  And that is a contractual provision btw. In other words "it's legal."  Buffet called them "weapons of financial mass destruction" and we have Greece, Ireland and Egypt to now prove it.  We will now have a million man march in Cairo which is far bigger news than anything this clown Khadaffi can do as "he has 2 million abused Egyptians" in his own country to worry about.  Maybe Bernanke's just the monetary equivalent of a heroin addict?  "It's his evil twin skippy"?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:07 | 985358 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

I can't see why The Bernank will end POMO.  He's all in on feeding his buddies and damn the inflation outcome.  Anyway, announced inflation is being kept in check by lies while real inflation is dancing a jig.  Carry on.  Liquidity rules!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:13 | 985386 trav7777
trav7777's picture

61B in "cuts" is not fiscal restraint.

Fiscal restraint in the sense that these people mean it is absurd.

The issue is really the amount of illegitimate debt out there, which cannot ever be repaid.  These states that are now renegotiating their pensions and salaries- how much is their yearly DEBT payment, and how much money did they squander over decades rather than set aside for pension obligations?  In every case, we will find sovereigns that are in debt to their eyeballs and who underfunded pensions, preferring instead to route the cash to cronies and themselves

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:01 | 985625 Goldfinger
Goldfinger's picture

 + 14trillion of fraud debt.

Trav has it right.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 19:09 | 986754 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

++++++++

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:14 | 985392 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Walmart sales decined for 7th straight quarter.  Recovery in action!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:34 | 985513 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Wal mart is hurting for various reasons but the deflation monster is just letting us know he is still around.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 13:17 | 985716 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

So when Walmart offers a product that is smaller in size for the same price that is deflation?  They have been "deflationists" by way of forcing suppliers to lower their prices for years I didn't see anyone complaining about deflation then.

You've been brainwashed by the Leo/Central Bankster/Propagandists of the world into thinking deflation would be bad.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 12:15 | 985399 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

So when it all crashes, Uncle Ben will certainly take the Werner von Braun defense:  My job was to launch V-2, where it came down was not my department.

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