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Rosie's Must Read On A Hope-Based Rally Now, Followed By Shock Therapy Later
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Now that his relentless skepticism, following today's abysmal data release (orchestrated or not), has been fully validated, much to the chagrin of top ticking flippers such as Goldman and other sundry blog sites, Rosenberg comes out with a must read essay on the state of the economy now versus later, entitled very appropriately "Hope-Based Rally Now, Shock Therapy Later." This is certainly one Rosie's better pieces out there and a must read for those who refuse to be led by the propaganda machine into believing lies and manipulation: "This has become such a hope-based market that the Dow jumped over 100 points earlier this week on a Reuters news story in Brussels, which reported that the U.S.A. would back an even greater financial commitment to Europe! Quick — get Sarah Palin on the line." Incidentally, if there is any confusion where Zero Hedge stands, we suggest rereading our post from last night which made it all too clear that we still refuse to drink the hopium (and self-aggrandizement) that seems to have gotten straight to the head of such a broad (literally and metaphorically) cross-section of the financial punditry.
HOPE-BASED RALLY NOW, SHOCK THERAPY LATER
I’m on the way back from a two-day business trip in London, U.K. with a few of my Gluskin Sheff colleagues. It’s been a good year-and-a-half since I was last there (the next best thing to old New York), and the first time I can remember it snowing this early — a few centimetres almost shut down the city (enough to make a Torontonian chuckle).
While we continue to refrain from hyperventilating as others throw in the towel, it is completely understandable that investor sentiment has improved. Moreover, the incoming economic data, at least when benchmarked against the double-dip fears that prevailed in July and August, currently look “green shooty” in nature. But is the U.S. economy really out of the woods? Hardly.
The recovery is obviously still so fragile that the Fed felt the need to expand its balance sheet by an additional 25% and policymakers in Washington fear that the economy can slip back into recession if the Bush tax cuts and the 99-week emergency jobless benefit plan are not extended. When you get through the WSJ’s op-ed piece today (The Fed’s Bailout Files) it is readily apparent as to how the financial system can be rigged and manipulated by government officials, elected and non-elected alike. We don’t claim to be monuments of justice and perhaps Bernanke et al saved the world from imminent collapse in early 2009, but since when is a 14x P/E multiple “cheap” or even “fair value” for a period in economic and financial history in which capitalism went on a prolonged sabbatical? The Reagan Revolution this is not (though perhaps gets revived in 2012).
Let’s also not forget that the peak in real GDP growth was posted in Q4 2009 and the high in ISM was back in April of this year. So whatever green shoots we are seeing now are really more about comparisons to low-balled summertime expectations.
To be sure, job market conditions have improved, but the reality is that the preponderance of the employment gains in the past six months has been in part-time positions. The trend in initial jobless claims has receded, which is encouraging indeed but they are not yet at levels consistent with a sustained decline in the unemployment rate. As an aside, we find it amusing to hear about how the four-week moving average on claims has declined to 431k — where it was in August 2008 when the U.S. economy was only nine months into recession and Hank Paulson was brandishing his bazooka. Indeed, the jobless rate remained well above the 9% threshold in November, which marks the 19th month in a row this happened establishing a new (and rather dubious) record for the post-WWII era. What a recovery!
No doubt, the retail sales data in the U.S. have certainly surprised to the upside. But it was all due to the paper wealth created from the bounce back in equity values bolstering high-end consumption, and the low-end spectrum being underpinned by Uncle Sam’s generosity as a record near 20% of personal income is now being derived from government transfer payments.
We are constantly asked: when will we turn bullish? Given the rapid ascent in the stock market back to the cycle highs, we are fielding this question constantly. In fact, the last time we were asked it with so much high frequency was last April. Something to ponder.
The bottom line is that we will turn into secular bulls the moment we see that the U.S. economy can expand organically without the sustenance of a public sector oxygen tank. We need to see that the private sector can stand on its own two feet. We actually thought we were going to get that opportunity when Ben Bernanke announced months ago that the Fed was planning its exit strategy. Alas, no such luck here as QE1 morphed into QE2.
We had also thought that a tax cut, which always had a December 31, 2010 expiry date, would disappear. But again, there is simply too much concern over how this will impact the economy despite the fact that revenues are falling so short of expenditures that the deficit continues to flirt near 10% of GDP. In fact, the government debt/GDP ratio in the U.S.A. has already pierced levels that touched off credit downgrades in Canada back in the early 1990s. When Fannie and Freddie’s balance sheet is tacked on, the U.S.A. looks worse than the Euroland periphery. Now what fair-value P/E multiple does that deserve?
After seeing Q3 real GDP growth revised up to a 2.5% annual rate, it now looks as though Q4 will look very much the same, which is an upgrade from previous forecasts. In fact, some economists are now forecasting between 3% and 4% real GDP growth for Q4. The question at this point with the market priced for such a pickup is what the pitfalls might be as we go into 2011. We identify four of them:
One shock is the sharp pending drag from widespread and accelerating spending cutbacks and tax hikes at the fiscally strapped state and local government level. In fact, it is because of the downsizing in this critically large part of the economy that the Challenger layoff data in November (48,711 job cuts — conveniently ignored) surged to the highest level in eight months.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. are quickly heading to $3 a gallon and history shows that when this happens, the economy cools off with a short time lag. As for bond yields, instead of going down with QE2, they have broken out to the high side and taken mortgage rates along for the ride. This is the last thing the housing market needs.
In fact, notwithstanding the bungee jump in the volatile pending home sale index (still down 25% over the past year), the reality is that when properly measured, there is two years’ supply of housing inventory overhanging the residential real estate market. This spells bad news for homeowners because it strongly suggests that we are going to be in for another major leg down in house prices.
We wonder how long it will take for the recent downdraft in nationwide real estate values (Case-Shiller down three months in a row for the first time since the dark days of March-May 2009) to recapture the attention of the investment community. To be talking about inflation when both credit and house prices are deflating sounds a bit strange to us, but an inflation psychology has recently filtered into the mindset of Mr. Market.
Remember the stock market grabs the headline but the housing market is three times more important in terms of the wealth impact on consumer spending. If home prices continue on their recent path next year, it will be the equivalent of a 20% correction in the S&P 500.
Another shock comes from the dramatic fiscal retrenchment through much of Europe. Keep in mind that at a 25% share of the pie, U.S. exports to the EU are double what they are to the B.R.I.C.s. While the ECB can provide much needed liquidity, it is not equipped to resolve the issue surrounding sovereign default risks.
Ireland, Greece and Portugal are basically insolvent and we will probably find out in due course that while these countries are too big to fail, and Spain is too big to rescue — this saga is far from over. Fiscal policy will ultimately have to deal with that and the necessary restraint and debt restructuring will exert downward pressure on aggregate demand through most of the continent, as well as recurring rounds of financial market instability. (Is there any incentive for Ireland to accept a “rescue plan” that ends up increasing its debt-service burden? It will be fascinating to see what the new government decides to do
early next year).
As it stands, and despite the brouhaha over the recent PMI data points, Euro area real GDP growth throttled back in Q3 to 0.4%, less than half the second quarter pace. More slowing is sure to come — the question is by how much.
Escalating inflation pressures in emerging markets, especially China where the authorities face an enormous challenge in letting air out of the massive credit balloon without bursting it, will require heavy doses of policy restraint. Just as the dramatic Chinese fiscal and credit stimulus in late 2008 helped turn the global recession into an impressive expansion, it is quite clear that from a policy standpoint, the party is now over.
So the tailwinds to U.S. profits from accelerating global growth, not to mention a weak U.S. dollar, which has turned the corner, are about to become headwinds. Achieving the double-digit gains in S&P 500 earnings for 2011 that have become entrenched in consensus expectations at a time of record margins and likely low single-digit nominal GDP growth will be extremely difficult.
While the recent rally, which has been predicated on hopes of an ECB rescue plan and hopes of a White House-Congress agreement on tax/benefit extensions, the downside growth risks for 2011 should not be so readily dismissed. This has become such a hope-based market that the Dow jumped over 100 points earlier this week on a Reuters news story in Brussels, which reported that the U.S.A. would back an even greater financial commitment to Europe! Quick — get Sarah Palin on the line. Hope isn’t typically a very useful long-term strategy, even if it has helped generate another run at the highs, as the remaining shorts get covered in time for year-end.
With most surveys showing a bull-bear ratio of three to one and the recent Barron’s Big Money poll showing 20 equity bulls for every bond bull, it would seem as though we have an overwhelming consensus on our hands as far as the 2011 outlook is concerned.
To which we respond by dusting off Bob Farrell’s rule number 9: “When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.”
From Gluskin Sheff
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Say it ain't true...
"Republicans Move to Block Ron Paul from Monetary Policy Subcommittee Chair" - http://www.infowars.com/republicans-move-to-block-ron-paul-from-monetary-policy-subcommittee-chair/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
if it goes down that way then there r 2 politicians that should have crosshairs on their backs...Gregg & Boehner...fuck'em
well loøk at that...i get junked for advocating retribution against 2 corrupt politicians masquerading as banker lap dogs who dont want the citizenry to c just how they have and continue to be raped by the elitist....the same bitch ass politicians that have young men and women n a foreign land getting there asses blown of while the brother of the installed president flies around the emirates with 52 billion n ur money destined for a private bank account...what pussy's some ZH wanna b's r....
I gotta wonder if Gregg and Boehner were the ones behind that. . . . ..
Gregg is a cunt.
Boehner stole his last election.
If it is true, it comes as no surprise. He will never have anything given to him. He must fight for every inch.
"First they laugh at you, then they ignore you, then they fight you, then you win" Gandhi
Ron Paul is still stuck in the "they fight you" stage evidently.
What an absolute outrage! I have already written an email and called his office to complain! If true, Boehner must be defeated at his next election and removed from his powerful position. I am sick of this republican/democrat power game; full of words and short on deeds!
You should follow up the email with a phone call:-
In addition to the Washington, D.C. office, Congressman Boehner has two 8th District offices easily located for constituents in Butler County and Miami County. You may contact us via phone, e-mail or fax. Due to security procedures, mail sent through the Post Office could take up to 3 weeks to arrive in the Washington, D.C. office.
Butler County Office
7969 Cincinnati-Dayton Road
Suite B
West Chester, OH 45069
(513) 779-5400
(513) 779-5315 fax
Washington, D.C. Office
1011 Longworth H.O.B.
Washington, DC 20515
(202) 225-6205
(202) 225-0704 fax
I didnt even read this, but looking at the headlines, I have one word that will solve this and every issue... POMO!!!! Youre homeless? POMO. Have an ingrown Toenail? POMO. Your wife cheats on you? POMO. You have Swamp ass? POMO
"I've got a fever, and the only cure is more POMO!"
"I'm just like every other man. Put my pants on one leg at a time. But when my pants are on I print billions"
Can't get the SNL skit with the cowbell out of my head and hearing POMO for cowbell...
It cures constipation and PMS cramps too.
"You know, fellas, I put my pants on one leg at a time just like you... the only difference is once my pants are on I go out and PRINT DOLLA'S!" - Benny B "Dickinson" lol
'To be sure, the job market conditions have improved' WTF data is he looking at?
The hopium smoke is indeed thick in todays USA!
" it is readily apparent as to how the financial system can be rigged and manipulated by government officials, elected and non-elected alike."
Uh-oh, Rosie might be getting some broken condom charges after blaspheming like that.
lol
Can Juilan sue the condom manufacturer?
He should double bag them next time...
NOTHING is coming folks. Better get used to it- the New Normal.
The collapse already happened, the "event" was 2008.
Bernanke did save us from Great Depression 2.0. "Double-Dip" ain't coming.
2011 is shaping up to be a wonderful year for the Republic
Nothing is coming? How on earth did you get past the captcha?
LOL
Is he crazy, too?
Collapse is a process, not an event. Your argument seems to be that nothing ever happens; history says it does.
why would you respond to such a statement? he is just trying to get people riled up.
For the same reason I reply to you. Why not?
LOL
tru
It will indeed be a wonderful year in the Republic if you sell any of the following:
1) Imaging machines for airports
2) Routers that block IP addresses considered rogue or undesirable
3) Antidepressants
4) Booze
5) Guns & ammo
6) Gold and silver
7) The Tiffany line
8) Real estate in Washington, the District of Criminals
9) Airline tickets to Spain.
10) Permanently-On spill-proof condoms.
11) Medical Marijuana
The new normal? You don't fucking get it, do you? This is just a staging process for the NEW NORMAL! Every economic downturn has happened for a reason, as planned. The CRONIES have set this up and are now holding a fucking gun to our heads. You think what is happening in Europe is bad? Just wait till the plan moves into America.If you haven't noticed, the FED is now running our country. The 2008 collapse was set up and was merely an appetizer for the main coarse. They moved on to Europe to allow Americans to adjust to the NEW NORMAL so when they come back and feed on what's left of the American carcass it won't be so painful. People need to get a clue and WAKE THE FUCK UP! I just have to laugh at those who chase crispy creme charts thinking that the America train is back on its tracks. And those who base a sound economy on how many people make a run on a fucking target store. It's an absolute joke and even some of the biggest bears on this site just don't get the big picture. We are in the final phases of the ultimate takeover and it's not going to end pretty. So buy up your crispy and Apple stock because when reality sets in you will be holding a bunch of worthless nothing! I recommend you spend 14 minutes of your mundane existance educating yourselves about what is truley ahead. This article scratches the surface however if you dig a little deeper you may start to understand why this is happening and where it's going to end up! Here take the time to truly understand where all this debt is taking us...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmiFB9hJxus&feature=player_embedded
Watch Big4 and Buffett for big bucks
wrong spot
Dont worry, please lay down, breath deeply, it will pass soon.
Late stage syphilis and gonorrhea can be like that. Seek treatment soon.
Long article. But the term "Shock Therapy" reminds me of that Naomi Klein book, "The Shock Doctrine".
I remember when people like Klein (and her ideas) were denounced as Commies. My, my... how times change when the man in the White House changes (but the policies never do).
Naomi Klein ...
Commie? No.
Abject moron? Definitely.
I suppose a "book" would be definite no-go for you then?
The shell game continues as long as "they" control the shells.
Unfortunately, "they" will always control the game.
If we're tired of them controlling the game, then perhaps we just stop playing?!
"You never change anything by fighting the existing. To change something, build a new model and make the existing obsolete."
- Buckminster Fuller
good read, indeed.
Where's Robotroll? I want to hear about oil reverse crashing, uphammered, etc. and how he will soon be luxuriating in $5 gas as he squeezes onto the ever more crowded LA city bus. lulz
Give him a little time...he will be here to post his charts with captions of bludgeoning and blowtorching.
I have no doubt that he/she/it will be here shortly, crapping out his/her/its usual flyby stock-bullish oneliner posts accompanied by a puerile photo of tawdry female pulchritude.
Are his/her/its posts worthless and trollish? Does a Bearnanke shit dollar bills in the woods?
Which woods?
Bretton of course
+1413!
This seems like pretty good piece to me- down to earth, common sense. Typical restatement of what has been going on.
It all comes down to what Tyler was talking about earlier: QE and shadow banking credit destruction. The management of this is going to dictate QI 2011.
I question how the US, EU, Japan and China are going to be able to continue the debasement revolution indefinitely. It might sound plausible, but eventually- the friction rises past the level of sustainability.
There is an obvious deflationary force at work and it is not being denied- merely slowed down. I think we might end up very surprised one day when shortages start to appear and accelerate.
I love zero hedge but for 18 months every single forecast of doom has failed to materialise. Did the Dubai crisis cause a drop ? no, Greece ? no, Foreclosure crisis ? no, Ireland ? no , Portugal ? no, MidTerms ? no, QE2 ? no. Look at today abysmal jobs, durables, pmi. Drop ? no. Just cant see i thappening. The FED'll just print monet till its all over.
The Fed will print thier way out of reserve status.
Asean moving away from USD, China and Russia likewise.
GCC looking to set up thier own "euro".
The only thing stopping everyone from dropping the USD is the military, but the US just isnt the same military force it used to be.
The Chinese could probably sink carriers with impunity and nuke your cities.
You think the NK artillery barrage wasnt sanctioned?
So far so good
http://articles.cnn.com/2010-06-03/world/south.korea.us_1_yellow-sea-air...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/obama-to-call-south-korea-s-lee...
Most people never see a dam break either. It starts with foundational problems that get worse whether they're observed or not. Maybe someone starts to see trickles of water coming out or someone thinks that sticking a finger or two will solve the problem (or at least gain some time).
Well, what usually happens is that the "event" occurs unless responsible action is taken. How does never-ending debasement of curriencies fix the structural problems in this dam(n) economy?
I decided some time back that I'm a gonna be sitting on the hilltop and not the gulch. It'll be tragic, even deadly for some, but I don't got cable or satellite tv, so I'm just gonna watch the event live. Maybe someday they'll even make a tv movie out of it...and with my gold and silver, maybe I'll be able to afford cable so I can watch it again.
To many equities and real estate investors (not to mention house owners and employees) in the first half of 2007, the financial, stock and labor market turmoil we have already seen in the last three years would have fully constituted "doom" to them and their portfolios had they been able to predict it. Indeed, virtually nobody foresaw the momentous events of late 2008 before they occurred. To paraphrase another poster here today, "doom" is not an event, it is a process --- and many millions of individuals and families are already living their own personal version of doom.
good stuff AKAK.
Empires can crumble slowly or crash at once. All the events the poster above cited as not doom, when added up look quite doomish to me. Of course Tyler is going to be a little hyperbolic about it, gets lots of page views and the discussion going.
Patience.
I was wondering about that myself: The list he laid out is a prescription for doom, certainly not a world rolling right along on the road to bliss and prosperity. Pretty funny really.
"Hey, all this crap has happened (which nobody saw coming)! Everything looks great!"
Well that is just it, they can never stop printing.
The balloon has holes in it. The moment he stops printing it deflates to zero.
In other news…
RV Industry Rebounding, Led by Smaller Trailers
http://abcnews.go.com/Business…..d=12305175
Of course the conventional wisdom is that this is a postive economic indicator.
Or it could be that or people are abandoning houses and moving into trailers.
Reminds me of the old Soviet era joke.....
A group of soldiers are listening to a commander making a speech. The officer says, "Soon our glorious factories will produce so many jets each Soviet citizen will have his own."
One of the soldiers asks another, "Igor, vy ve all need jet?"
The other replies, "Stupid Dimitri! Vat if you are in Odessa and you hear they have bread for sale in Minsk?"
------
Re the RV's...what if you are in Ohio and you hear there is a job in Oklahoma.
[Or it could be that or people are abandoning houses and moving into trailers.]---Henry Chinaski
I was thinking the same thing. Related to the collapsing housing market some how. I am curious about the demographics of the buyers, e.g. seniors? middle-aged? singles or married with kids?
Anecdotal: While driving home after Thanksgiving at dad's, I noticed an RV parked beside a house---a nice house in a nice neighborhood. Plywood boards of different sizes were set-up between and around the RV and house. Very shanty-like. A lot of stuff strewn about the yard and driveway. My guess: the home owner has homeless relatives or friends living in an RV on the home owner's property.
It's generally pretty amusing, but sadness approaches.
You hear people swagger forth and say:
Oil price is affected by supply and demand. How much comes out of the ground and how much gets used. PERIOD.
Then the price ramps up and there is increasing indication that the economy is not doing well and weakening and oil demand is being reduced.
But the price goes up. The conclusion: "It is those damned evil speculators."
The reality of oil production insufficiency is just not fathomable, because those who consider it know it is forever. You can't print oil and agriculture does not run on anything else, and never will.
The problem with oil is believability. Peak oil will be a reality- let's get beyond that for a moment. When you have a leveraged commodities market being gamed by HFT and banks, when the same banks are leasing tankers and holding them off shore, when said tankers are brought in to offload according to market demands and to game the data, when that data is compiled by petroleum institutes, when the number of refineries is reduced and then used to manipulate supply- it is very difficult to believe what people say.
I tossed supply and demand out a long time ago- those features are relevant in free markets, but we are far beyond the pale...
XOM still targeting 98 from 55
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom
Unfortunately, Rosie, is one of the experts that just can't seem to make a really good trade. How's his long Treasury position doing on the right side of his barbell?
While I appreciate Rosie's economic data and truth in numbers, his allocation henceforth is far from picturesque.
The one thing we must all remember--there is inflation! Rosie is stuck--I tell, you--stuck on the deflation in housing and credit neme. Well, no shit. After the largest bubble in U.S. history popped, what contrary opininion would anyone have to this phenonmenon? You'd have to be a a Frozen Dead Guy in a casket on the slopes at nowewhere not to realize this rudimentary infomation.
The inflation--in all things basic necessities--is what will kill this farce of manipulated market. Increases in the SPY as ZH so eloquently points out has gone up in near perfect correlation to money printing (which is nothing more than inflationary nominal gains but has impuned real losses).
While I agree with Rosie about the real potential for Shock Therapy, he might want to also consider since Congress isn't going to balance a 1 trilllion + shortfall in revenues annually anytime soon, the Federal Reserve has no choice going forward to monetize the debt. This is guranteed, fresh money prints for at least two years.
How will that affect stocks? Rosie has no more idea than anyone else on that one. Gold and silver are the much easier call. If we see the 4 trillion contraction in GDP ZH and Rosie expects, you can be reassured Goldman Sachs will remind all that they were right--just early--4 trillion, more.
I'll easily take the other side of the trade with Rosie: short long term treasuries. It's the one true no brainer over the next 3-5 years folks.
Short 2Y & 30s
but room for 7 & 10 to rise (30s also but short 2Y has a long vol payoff, and if 30s rise, so do 10s)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40494047
Not quite so many HFs as there used to be, are there? Wonder why.
I'm not much good on currency but I know a lot of you are. Didn't the dollar just exceed a 50% correction of the move from 78 - 81.44 when it broke down through 79.67? And since it broke down through support at 79.46 and closed lower, doesn't this mean we have further to fall? Also, shouldn't that portend higher gold and silver and oil?
I suppose I ought not try to understand the USD in these POMO times. I am struggling to understand how it is that the dollar hasn't already broken below 72 with all the money printing going on.
Any thoughts or comments?
It is suggested it may fall back to 77. Yes gold and silver will go higher, but gold has decoupled from the dollar and now travels a path determined by global debasement- not just the dollar.
The dollar hasn't broken 72 because of the global debasement system that moves from region to region. Further, with so many commodities priced in dollars, it would be suicide for exporting and emerging economies.
At least, that's my take.
Wow, that is exactly the kind of concise and sensible explanation I was looking for. Thanks Sean7k. Have a great weekend.
Your welcome. Have a nice weekend as well.
Longer point of view: USD still targeting 115 from 70.70
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=%24usd
Yep, and I'm still targeting to live to the ripe old age of 115.
How many is that in Human years, 'coon?
Beats me, Killer. I was just being snarky, no real point to make.
global debasement is the new black.
My outside is in when my inside is out*. I do not know what to believe anymore.
* you know who
dbradsha is right; ZH calls for doom are misguided
there are plenty of fundamental weaknesses
but there is sufficient ability to provide liquidity to the insolvent TBTF
Corporate profits are at an all time high, due mostly to costcutting. The SPX can easily get to 1500 by end of 2011 if not before. A little bit of earnings and a little bit of multiple expansion. Plus inflows... DC pension funds have to do something to try for return and equities is the only remaining game for them.
No one cares about my portfolio (though I probably account for > 25% of ZH reader's total trading). However, FWIW I've capitulated the short positions post QE2. Still holding PMs and grains and timber for the longer term. Moved to long tech & growth. I hate it but it's going to pay off.
The feces will whack the HVAC eventually. However we have at least a year to party (if we have a job and capital...). Let's get back to taking nickels from orphans while we can.
Amazing no junks for telling the truth
SPX targeting 1590 from 666
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=spx
Well, I'll give you Kudos for telling the truth... and being part of the problem.
"Moved to long tech & growth."
You're saying that Tech is in the cards, and that we we'll return to growth?
We're fast approaching what Karl Marx warned (his broken-clock moment- dead-on) of the workers being unable to purchase the good that they produce.
It all falls apart when cheap energy is lost. I think that it was here (ZH) that I ran across this: http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~tgarrett/Projects/Economics.html
Be on-guard for the revenge of Jevons Paradox! (as well as the effects of economies of scale in reverse)
More useless drivel from a moron who doesn't have a clue about ... anything ! LOL
As for when Rosie turn bullish .... why right at the top , of course !!
Surprise, surprise...
Comca...I mean CNBC calling for NFLX to drop 75% in 2011...and the segment length seems uncomfortably long
Nerb Greenberg money quote (paraphrase):
"They asked me to make predictions, so if this works out I'll take full credit. If not, I'll deny I ever said it."
MCC rebuttal:
"Now you're learning how television works"
No joke
John pulled a Boehner.
What else should we expect from career politicians dependent on bank lobbyists?
Re DR:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yErhglOXIxM 5:30
Ron Paul for Speaker of the House
fitting payback...
Ron Paul was just being discussed on CNBC (16:15 EST, 12/3), with live interviews from two different men, BOTH of whom of course were dismissive of him --- one mildly, the other extremely so. This was accompanied by repeated and HIGHLY insulting quotes on the bottom of the screen by both men --- "None of Ron Paul's ideas will ever be implimented by Congress", "We will return to horses and carriages before seeing a gold standard again", etc. etc. The whole episode reeked of high douchery.
Well, I'd be happy to use a horse to drag these folks' corpses to their final resting places. I'm older, but I am pretty sure that I'll see the day.
the hell with Rosie...dont he know the markets finished n the green withing the last 30 minutes of trading...doomers "we's rich - bitch"...
fucking fraud market
Hey, just do the OPPOSITE of what Rosenberg "thinks" is going to happen and you'll do well. What a dumbass !
yup - another "miracle" finish.... AGAIN. Must be another BULL Market, fore sure. How do those fuckers do it? Rhetorical...I know damn well how. They really are good at it - gota hand it to 'em, the pricks
Blah blah blah what a clown. Dollar down. Everything else up. Hope is working pretty fockin good S&P 666 to 1,225.
Rosie needs to simplify his analysis - just look at the size of the Fed balance sheet, that will tell you where the market is going.
How I learned to love the Fed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueuauKKjPZI 0:56
I've been hearing that the collapse of the Dollar/USA/World etc. is weeks away since about 2002!
What I have encountered:
Hard times, especially on the poorer folks? Yes. Collapse of society? Not so much.
Fascism* is not just alive and well, it is getting stronger by the day. If you still want to make some money you need to understand that and invest based on that knowledge. Remember, not every corporation is equal; not by a long shot.
*Here I am defining 'Fascism' as corporate control of society. Racism, though often associated with it confuses the issue and prevents most people from seeing the bigger picture. (Consider how irate people get when someone suggests that there are powerful genetic influences on intelligence that differ in meaningful ways among the racial groups. They tend to ignore everything else and hysterically yell that it can't be true and only evil minded people would want to know about it if it were true. Do they realize that by acting in such a way they reveal their own insecurity?)
Getting a man to focus on his own insecurities is a great way to discourage him from making too strong a challenge to the powers that be. Since he is afraid to confront his own weakness, he is loathe to point out weakness in others lest they reveal his out of spite. Thus denial of one weakness in time becomes the denial of many. This leads to a world full of people too deluded to seriously confront either themselves or those who rule them.
ye olde scapegoat strategy
One thing you can say about Sarah Palin, and that is at least she's had a real job and run a business in commercial fishing.
Obama and Bernanke have not run so much as a hot dog stand between them.
WAKE THE F UP!!!!!
THEY ARE ALL THE SAME! TWO HEADED BEAST!!
WAKE UP
OT-
Weird how right after the SK boat was sunk we got a Japanese PM to cave and keep our Okinawa base...
and how right after NK shelled SK we got... this
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B25GJ20101203
the s&p500 is not behaving entirely irrationally....those companies derive substantial income overseas that it matters not that unemployment is high...there is no national recovery but the transnational corporate gargantua and pantagruels are doing fine thank you very much...
There hopeing for a miracle that won't come, and if it does it will follow the adage "be careful what you wish for".
The real crisis will only come with a failed bond auction.
And seeing how the Fed can/will/has made it know that it
will buy every fucking piece of paper the US can write, there will
be no such failure. Until that time, SPX to the moon Alice.