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Roubini: "My Views Were Taken Out Of Context."
Does CNBC now have to pay back all those who bought stock after being pounded by this misquote over and over as an epilepsy inducing Breaking News box? That, of course, assumes the powers that be will allow the market to move down even 1 point from the most recent artificially high level.
From RGE Montior:
“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the
recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my
economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last
roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19months into that recession. If,
as I predicted, the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted
24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and
protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the
consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8
months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is
over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe
recession; so the V is out the window and we are in a deep U-shaped
recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have
consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been
three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in
terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there
is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at
the end of this year.“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today -
that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back
close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow,
below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1%
in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a
double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy
dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary
and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the
recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the
other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued
monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long term
interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal
sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and
thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the
recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector,
the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a
massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal
deficits and public debt accumulation.“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak:
I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such large
unemployment will have negative effects on labor income and consumption
growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will
lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and
commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will
increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional
stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.“So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the
global economy; but as I have consistently argued the recession will
continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and
at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing
and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing
will be daunting.“RGE Monitor will soon release our updated U.S. and Global Economic Outlook. A preview of the U.S. Outlook is available on our website: www.rgemonitor.com”
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The misquote was deliberate. Git with da program. These folks on wall street need genuine volume and they know HFTs can't keep doing their shindig for ever.
Everyone just needs to STFU
Except the gang here at ZH, and maybe MarketTicker, The Automatic Earth, and maybe some other bastions of telling it like it is - aka - reality - aka the truth.
A half hearted ;-)
I have come to the conclusion that "media reports" can not be trusted. The only thing that can be trusted is to read the full transcript of what was actually said, or to examine the full government data reports.
That is one of the reasons why I appreciate Zerohedge's efforts to provide as many links as possible to primary sources, instead of merely parrotting media reports.
Amen to that.
I have come to the conclusion that "media reports" can not be trusted. The only thing that can be trusted is to read the full transcript of what was actually said, or to examine the full government data reports..//////////////
I came to that same conclusion long ago, too. It's all about making the stock marketup..keeping the American public in a consumerist stupr, and in debt. Bank of Amerika and Goldman run America.
good reads http://www.bit.ly/12NCJR...
We, the people, need to stand up to this. Vote Obammi and Geithner out of Office. Get RID of the scum in DC
Ruh roh.. Meredith your turn to recant.
this 'misstatement' is a tad disappointing as it immediately triggered a 10 pt run in the S&P. My SDS position did excellent today. Somebody owes me 10 pts (which then must be adjusted for the daily resetting of leveraged ETFs).
But of course, this is my fault for believing in the sensibility of market reactions. I pity the fool, and self-pity is glorious.
Screw that, take it out by pounding the Aussie and Kiwi / Yen crosses. I'm about to double down on those shorts as soon as the USD/JPY breaks below 93.69.
But even with that, I have to wake up at 5am every morning to close out my FX risk shorts. Reapply after US market close. Rinse and repeat.
The FX risk crosses have now given back MORE than all of their gains during the US market.
No worries, the PPT is turning in early tonight - in prep for a full morning's work starting in 8 hours.
The Fast Money clowns put on quite the show trying to spin this. Funny, they had his name in headlines calling today the "Roubini Rally" only to have Joe "buy everything" Terranova trashing him an hour or so later. They really are better than the Comedy Channel.
Makes you want picture in picture so you can watch CNBC in one, and Congress in the other - Comedyvision.
This false news story ranks right up there with the "leaked" Citi profit memo back in mar/apr. Remember? Turned out that was a lie as well.
The people at Zero Hedge are building the synapses between the neurons of the populace who are neurologically impaired from their steady diet of media consumption.
I'd like to take a moment and express my appreciation for this site, the labor, resources and enthusiasm our hosts contribute, and the people who contribute their own thoughts here in the comment areas.
Cheers to all of you. I shall consume vast quantities of alcoholic beverages in your collective honor this evening.
I'll second that. Tyler, many people do appreciate your effort. Many silently. I push it every chance I get. Your service is the stuff Legends are made of. Thank You. Marla, please expand the allowable listeners.
Thanks, Tyler, Marla, Cornelius, and everyone who makes this a must-read site. Thanks for all the content (how do you find the time to post so many articles?) as well as allowing your many insightful and entertaining commenters to post here without your egos getting in the way (even when ours sometimes do).
@ 24 months Roubini is being optimistic. Where is that GDP boost going to come from?
I suppose the US government can simply lie about economic 'growth' like the Chinese government does. In that case, the recession was over a few days ago ... when Dennis Kneale informed us so!
When the light appears at the end of the tunnel, the price of crude oil will skyrocket. This will cut any recovery off at the knees. The best case scenario is that the country limps along as we are now, until some relatively minor event causes another credit panic.
Some part of the banking sector will crash and the question of another/additional central bank- Treasury Department 'rescue' will be raised ... again. Because of the panic, oil will drop in price to $30 or so and a few months later there will appear an economic rebound.
Like a yo- yo; oil price down, economic activity increases. Oil price increases as a consequence until economic activity declines again. Up and down andupanddownandupanddown ...
Until everyone finally gets it. It's the oil. Two plus two equals four.
steve from va,
happen to agree with a point you made. while it is shameful the way cnbc perverted roubini's original remarks, and despite nouriel's outstanding call of the housing debacle 1-2 years before it began, his forecast of a 24-month event is quite rosy. we are looking at a hundred-year flood type of event here. ok, an eighty-year flood type of event.
while technically his prognostication may wind up being accurate, when unemployment is cruising towards 12% to 15% next year, will anybody really be happy with 1% growth? the second dip will be a real doozy.
somebody needs to ask roubini about this continuing job loss and unemployment situation. 24 months and we see green shoots professor? i think not.
read what he wrote two days ago:
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257274/mounting_job_losses_wil...
he's absolutely NOT bullish.
i think roubini is feeling the pressure from the jew york establishment about all of this. cut it out poopfessor, you are scaring the sheep. get with the program. we treat you well here in jew york. we pay you well for your job. we allow you to chase shiksas , half your age. all we ask , is that make up some half truths for us, while we steal the gentile monies. is that so much to ask?
Longtime reader. Huge fan. Not a fan of censorship either, but in the interest of reasonable discussions, would you mind getting rid of these nut job posts when you come across them? Would much appreciate that.
anon 8115....please get off the "jew york" thing or take it to the GS yahoo board with the other neonazi skinheads.
the racist comments subtract from the discussions
bupkis?
Agreed. So do the many misogynistic ones that are routinely posted here.
Yes deadhead--if only we could click on "report" on this site...
Close the Nazi's I.P. address down.
He'll just reboot the modem. His ISP will give him a new IP address with DHCP
A true DIY self ID.
Anon 8115 you are a fucking idiot. Keep your racist comments to yourself,.
-Silence
Di greste narishkayt fun a nar iz az er meynt az er is klug.
U.S.S. Roubini taking on water since March.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=roubini_has_been
I was laughing my ass off today as I saw the Google revenue numbers come in over Thomson a full minute before CNBC's resident dickwad Jim Goldman epic failed simple math by reporting a revenue figure *$1 billion* less than actual. It was just so funny.
I'm sorry....did we actually recover from the 2001 recession? Do credit bubbles now suddenly constitute "recovery"?
Ummmm, how is this not what CNBC said? The market recovers 6 months before the economy (or so they say)... 5 months < 6 months.... The market will not crash again for quite a few months is what Roubini is saying... ala a recovery. I'm sorry, it wasn't bad reporting, it was Roubini flipping from bear to neutral. i.e. the nature of a bear market rally, the bears start to backpedal until all are gone. I'm sorry, but Roubini is still on Volker's dick if he thinks this is near finished. The double dip is just CYA folks. Roubini is out as a bear.
Market started recovering beginning of March. That would put the economic recovery at the start of Sept. I don't see him saying that anywhere (now that I actually was able to find his own words today).
Sorry, but CNBC's/BO's idiot definition of "recovery" being "less bad GDP drops" - aka derivative - is totally wrong. A "recovery" means positive GDP. What does that make this massive market recovery from March to now?
You find where he has changed his tune (actual full published projections from him), and I'll change my tune. I'm sure there are bloggers who have been working on just this, since noon.
but he didn't change his tune - that's the whole point.. that's why he went out of the way to write another post explaining how he was misquoted/quoted out of context. Roubini is as bearish as ever - read his July 14th blog post on the employment woes.
I thought it seemed a bit fishy when I saw reports of Roubini's "positive" comments on Google...
Hey ANON... that little leaked citi memo got me out of a tight situation... needless to say, i could use a couple of these false flag market pushes to get me out of some ' ahh shit, what was I thinking trades'
maybe tomorrow the world will see the light again and FAZ will peak its head out its new 10 for 1 skin..
false flag market pushes to get me out of some ' ahh shit, what was I thinking trades' maybe tomorrow the world will see the light again and FAZ will peak its head out its new 10 for 1 skin..good pont
yup...Roubini seems like a crybaby though. He's getting all this attention and he still isn't happy. most pppl live thier lives yelling at the wall, yelling at thier wives, or at thir kids.http://iam... good finance articles
Why cant we all get along?
That was a blatant attempt to push NR off the fence by appealing to his ego.
God, Maria got so excited I thought she was gonna go Lewinsky on the entire trading floor. (Sorry about that one Marla)
What a cartoon this has all become.
And the joke of it is that Roubini is just another police state monkey. This guy is so corrupt, silly, ignorant and stupid that it's a fucking joke. Scum.
Steve LIESman reported this crap as "Breaking News" this afternoon. I'm shocked that the market got such a bounce out of anything that came out of the mouth of Steve (I must be an economist because I play one on TV) LIESman. I didn't know that many people actually listened to him. This alone proves that there are a lot of people with money on the line in the markets right now that aree in serious need of professional help, and I'm not talking brokers here.
Actually listening to people like LIESman can do a lot of damage to your portfolio. Just say no.
Show me ONE person who listens to (acts on) what that journalist hack / Administration shill "reports"...
Who are all you faggots who still watch cnbs anyhow? Lolz
One thing I learned during my time at Fort Bragg is how to run and identify a PSYOP. We are in the middle of one mother of a PSYOP and today's action is simply another flier dropped from an airplane in a long series of such droppings. The noteable item in today's action is the use of Roubini's name in an effort to convert hope into a massive cash transfer from the public in what continues to be an alchamists and CNBC's unrealized dream of changing their lead into gold.
Roubini is still way too bullish with his outlook. Why do they call him Dr. Doom?
We aren't going to have any "growth" until the contraction in GDP gets to a sustainable (MUCH LOWER YET) - level where we can actually grow from, if then. There is still too much debt overhang. I don't care how much the market goes up, the economy is going to be toast for a long time.........
Why do they call ANYONE Dr. Doom, besides Marc Faber? Everyone who predicts a stock market decline, or less than robust GDP, is labeled by the MSM as "DR DOOM" in an attempt to marginalize them.
And I agree that Roubini hasn't adjusted his projections down due to the joke of the failed first 'stimulus', which is his mistake - in my opinion. Maybe he is keeping in mind the huge fudge factor that is Gov't economic reporting?
Roubini is mostly a hack who made a lucky contrarian call and is riding a wave of celebrity to its ultimate conclusion which is almost certain obscurity. He, more than anyone, must be amazed and thankful at how long his moment in the sun has lasted. He has had to work very hard to cash in on this, but no doubt he has secured a relatively comfortable retirement as a result of this good fortune. It's a good thing, too, because he didn't bet a single dollar on his economic prognostications.
Why the fuck is this showing as my oldest post? I've been here since the beginning.
What happened around here?
Good points, I would add that there is another clever cover for all economy well wishers, cheerleaders, and behavioral financiers.
If we can't get the public to start spending, the media will focus on and cover "swine flu" and it can be blamed for a stalled recovery. Remember the media hoopla over this when one sick infant died, when tens of thousands die from other diseases? That was done as a social engineering story and will be used as a part of an agenda in the fall when the regular flu makes is annual visit.
The other concern I have is that the market understands the US will eventually default through inflation, and GS is working directly with China. All those China input purchases were making the market think they were starting to recover, but I believe they are just diversifying reserves out of the dollar and stockpiling. Probably a head fake and still expecting more asset deflation before hyper-inflation.
This is chess, thinking a few moves ahead.