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Roubini Sees No Double Dip In US, Spars With El-Erian
Nouriel Roubini was on CNBC earlier, sparring with Mohamed El-Erian, providing a very indecisive prediction about the future of the US economy. The RGE economist who previously would say the depression is only just starting, is unwilling to commit to a prediction of a double dip for the US, and barely do so for Europe. His anticipation of sub 2% GDP growth in H2 is... higher than that of perpetually optimistic Goldman Sachs, which sees 1.5% H2 growth. So much for swinging for the fences. But when existing subscribers expect to a given set of data, it is quite understandable. It is, nonetheless, good to see that the Doctor read the ConvergEx report we posted some time ago indicating how the Fed, and everyone else calling for a projected reduction in unemployment, are pathological liars: "With 130.2 million people presently employed, that works out to an addition of 385,000 jobs in each month, May through December – and that’s just to reach 9.4%. The low-end Fed projection is 9.3%. Considering the economy added 290,000 jobs (more on this later) last month, 385,000 seems a touch ambitious to say the least." And this does not include the atrocious May report, which means the economy has to add over 400k real private, non-census jobs a month. This is impossible. At least Roubini admits: "eventually even the US can't outrun a trillion budget deficit for the next ten years." To all speculators: good luck timing the turning point into the last crash. An oddly unsatisyfing clip, but the head to head between Roubini and El-Erian 5 minutes into the clip is amusing: Keynesian vs. non-Keynesian.
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Roubini, though correct about some things, is still an adherent to the failed Keynesian school. It's not like he doesn't think central banks are necessary.
Looks like they got to Roubini.
"What is your Swiss bank account number sir?"
We have IPO's coming out this week please be positive till we have sold more paper.
I was just going to post exactly the same! I wonder if they used more of a stick or a carrot on him. Maybe dangling a nice cushy position for him at the Fed with BB??
Roubini has become a shill.....just saying the right things to get more appearance cash. S&P will be 1050 to end the week so most options expire worthless, but like you said...the IPOs must be supported intraweek.
Roubini was correct before the crash. I watched him in 2008, he was so bearish.I was his fan when nobody know his name.
But he changed his tone after he became famous, he is more supportive to the Fed and US government. Probably he was forced to give positive comments about the economy.This is my guess.
I am not reading any of his comments anymore, doesn't make sense at all.
I agree though I don't know if he was forced. But he has drifted towards consensus reality.
It's very difficult to maintain your position when you're constantly questioned as you interact with people during speeches etc. And of course, he has a new book he just published, so he must stay within the parameters of the book, otherwise he will be considered a fraud or at least inconsistent.
I personally think he no longer likes to be known as Dr. Doom. He reacted poorly this morning when "Joe" on CNBC used that term.
Thanks Tyler!!!! great clip...Go Roubini!!!!
The establishment snaps up or snaps OFF any outliers.
Such is how the system is set up.
El-E is establishment (Bond market king=Hard Core insider)
Roubini : 45 minutes of fame, some errrrr... inducements.... maybe a little....ummmmm..... y'know...fbi file stuff..... Captcha!
Puppet theater, dis-traction machinery, bobble-head gobbledygook!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Roubini is a douchebag.
he's bucking for that gubbermint job
Well if he believes in a double dip his book won't sell so...no double dip.
This Jagoff is a sellout! i used to follow him but sometime around a year ago he has done an about turn and has toned his rhetoric down significantly so much that he is now just indecisive and irritating.
Who's payroll is he now on? He was obviously co-opted after his initial fame for predicting the GFC and now he just pukes out irrelevant and unconvincing gibberish. Fuck off Roubini, we are no longer interested.
They got to Roubini, long ago, they(?) had Roubini working overtime, when they were busy accumulating since Mar'09, when Mr. Roubini would not let up as how the markets would never recover (although valuations seemed attractive in certain sectors), and now when we have data (the best of market indictors - just consider WLI, widening credit spreads, imminent balance sheet or total destruction of major european banks, PMI data, M3 money supply at unprecedented levels, money velocity slowing down..there are many more) we have the Roubini calling for a sub 2% GDP growth (unless he is factoring or in the know of a massive stimulus effort in the works)..I think he is being used..let me stop there.
Roubini is an idiot. This is the same fool who has been saying it is going to get worse for the last year and now he's bullish.
Sell everything quick the end is near.
Maybe I watched a different clip. Roubini predicts anemic growth in the U.S with sustained high employment. In Europe, he thinks Spain will be a bigger problem than Greece.
Even Roubini isn't pessismistic enough for Zero Hedge!
Punk Ass Roubini lost credibility when he denigrated one of the only two forms of "real money". them brawds he's partying with at those fancy gatherings obviously has him twisted...fake ass econimist
Haven't they learned their lesson? Do dollar-denominated, payroll, etc., big-company-oriented statistics actually MEAN anything on Main Street?
We don't live in a world in which our well-being and economic health is determined by someone's artificial technical definition of a "recession"...pray tell, what is the difference to the man in the street between November 2007 and December 2007?
Thes knife-edge declarations of "recession" or "not recession" are so meaningless as to be absurd...
Well said.
Well, now Roubini can be on record for being wrong when the double-dip does happen. Bye, bye credibility!
Count Dracula has, for whatever reason, lost the plot, badly.
There is no plan, there never was a plan, there will never be a plan. The results of the equation are going to be the same every time, it doesn't care what plan you have. Both of these guys are looking for a way out, there is no way out. Sorry guys, no exit exists.
Roubini is all over the map but he's finally succumbing to reality: fundamentals are improving and it will show up in the jobs data. As for El-Erian, he is smart but I take everything Pimpco says with a shaker of salt. :)
Are you buying BBY this morning?
No, I am not into retail, but BBY is a favorite among PMs. They missed Q1 expectations, but I am betting some big funds are buying it today.
As suggested earlier, the EURUSD daily chart is giving bullish signals.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Bernanke, Blankfein, Roubini....same shit, same wrapping.
LMAO
Larry Summers was a part owner of RJE. That should tell you all you need to know about the goings on in Roubini's mind.
Let this be a warning to anyone long the market.
Roubini.. a.k.a Dr. Doom.. has capitualted and says there will be no double dip.
That is just about everyone.. McHugh is the only other one I know of that isn't a long time known perma-bear that is still calling for a big sell off coming up soon.
Faber, Schiff, Prechter and others still are calling for another big move down. Faber does have his "Bernanke Put" theory, if things start to look bad, Benron will print. Schiff says they will keep printing regardless (dollar will crash). Prechter's charts (Elliot wave) show a return to 1000 in the DOW when we hit bottom.
Roubini seems to have joined the "Matrix" again. He wants to taste the steak even though he knows it's not real.
Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente, Ron Paul, Sri Kumar, Hugh Hendry, Jim Rickards...
Roubini's gone soft in the head, Denninger hates gold, and Mish won't even consider PM manipulation. I wonder what's going on with these guys? I used to think they were all up to speed on things.
I listened the entire 14:21.
Comments seemed unduly harsh. (I mean did you really listen to him for the whole 14 minutes?)
Roubini seemed pretty solid.
Granted, he does support the current stimulus, but what did you expect him to say, that a major recession is "good" because it will give time for a healing process to take hold while we undo wasteful allocation of resources of the past? (I think that, maybe he thinks that, he can't say that)
You've lost me right there,
What would you like him to answer when he is asked about his opinion?
What he actually and truthfully thinks .... or whatever is convenient to him at the time?
If he can't tell us what he thinks he obviously must be feeding us with BS and maybe even lies.
Why should he be impaired to tell us what he thinks?
It's not like he is going to be the guy we can hold accountable in the end.
LMAO
Roubini's take has been that a sustained (long-term) combination of spending cuts and tax increases is necessary for the US to get out of the hole, but that both Democrats and Republicans will have problems accepting this.
His early call on Greece was on the money, well before anyone else: get the IMF involved early, restructure the debt early, don't prolong the agony with bailouts that still won't prevent default.
His call last year was for an inventory bounce in the US economy in 2010 first half, followed by a decline in growth in second half, possibly but not necessarily avoiding double-dip recession.
I think he's been solid for the last 12 months. His predictions about the SPX may be off, but I ignore those (I wish he'd stop making them, he makes himself look silly).
He's an economist not a trader. His economic calls have been solid.
"I think he's been solid for the last 12 months. His predictions about the SPX may be off, but I ignore those (I wish he'd stop making them, he makes himself look silly).
He's an economist not a trader. His economic calls have been solid."
Yeap
"Mr. Keynes, will you need your agenda?"
"That won't be necessary. I am the agenda."
http://techliberation.com/2010/01/28/youtube-meets-econ-101-keynes-hayek...
"Immaculate Recovery" Nuff said
Did you guys even listen to the clip? How can you say he's not negative enough:
1) "Everything is getting worse"
2) Greece will default after 3 years
3) "Spain is a disaster"
4) Us growth will be <2% with rising unemployment for the foreseeable future
5) Japan is comatose.
No, that's not it. How can he say '"no double dip" if he says that other stuff? That makes no sense whatsoever.
yes but goldman would lower its estimate to keep you from buying so they can buy low. funny how that happens very often
failed keynesian school? ... please, take some time and actually study Keynes and you will find that it wasn't his economic thoery that failed over the last 20-30 years ... you have to save in good times (run budget surplueses) to be able to stimulate economies during bad times (i.e. running a deficit). Politicians conveniently focus on the stimulus part, not the saving part ... the policy failure is not a failure of keynesianism but incomptenet politics
Be aware that you are surrounded by true believers in the return of the gold standard, a group that may have low regard for the 'ism' that Keynes theories have become known as. Probably not too many that have read 'A Treatise on Probability' methinks.
Another academic succumbs to not-able-to-be-wrong syndrome.