This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Roubini Turns Bearish On Gold (Again), Suggests Taking Profits And Buying Puts... Much Like He Did In December 2009
Rouibini has never been much of a fan of gold. Which is why we were not too surprised when we read RGE's latest recommendation on the precious metal, which, as expected was to take profits. Doctor Realist says: "September may be a good month to take partial or full profits for an
investor with a long gold position. Alternatively an interested investor
could buy December put options." Of course, had RGE clients followed the good Doctor's advice back from December 2009, there would have been no profits to be had. To wit: "Investors should thus be wary of getting the gold bug and being stuck with this barbarous relic. The recent swings in gold price—up 10 percent one month, down 10 percent the next—prove the point that gold has little intrinsic value and that most of its price movements are based on beliefs and bubbles. As an insurance policy against the tail risk of eventual inflation, it may be useful to hold a small amount of gold in one’s portfolio, but stocking up portfolios with a fiat currency that has marginal practical use, a zero nominal interest rate, high storage costs, and the price of which is subject to volatile whims and bubbles is totally irrational. If you want to hedge against inflation, stock up on Spam or other canned food or buy futures on commodities that have more physical uses and consumer demand....Unlike other commodities, it has little intrinsic value. Much like a fiat currency, gold’s value is based largely on the irrational beliefs of investors. In a depression or near depression, one would be better off stockpiling canned food and other commodities like oil that are useful for riding out Armageddon. You cannot eat gold or burn gold." Ah yes, the good ole "can't eat gold" argument. Yet somehow, despite gold's indigestible qualities, it is precisely gold which today hit an all time high once again, despite RGE's December note and a chorus of other infidels screaming for gold's metaphoric blood. We expect to hear ever more pundits to attempt to top tick the market. Will they succeed? Sure, if the starting sample is a few thousand, one will always be spot on. Pure statistics.
From RGE: There's Something about September
Gold’s Seasonal Characteristics
As gold prices continue to rise, September’s reputation as gold’s favorite month remains intact. Is this coincidence? No—in fact seasonality has its place in the commodity sector beyond agriculture (planting vs. harvest) and energy (heating vs. cooling & driving).
The market reached a record high to US$1276.50/ounce on September 14, 2010. US Dollar/Yen, fell to a 15 year low before the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened. That slide also contributed to the rally.
The price of gold is headed for its 10th straight annual gain, and is up 16% so far this year. We are only half way through the month and the metal has rallied over 2.3% so far.
Since 1975, September has been the best month for gold in terms of its month-over-month price appreciation. On average, gold in September has appreciated 2.60% above its August price during this period. Of the 34 years in this study, gold has risen month-over-month 23 times in September.
- India—the largest global gold consumer—develops a voracious appetite for the metal beginning in September and extending to the beginning of the following year. September marks the beginning of the Indian wedding season and the start of preparation for Diwali, one of the country’s most important holidays, which typically falls in October or November.
- Jewelry makers begin restocking inventories in advance of the Christmas shopping season, particularly in the U.S. and to a lesser extent by Europe (typically driven by Italy although this year may be an exception here).
- China is the world’s 2nd largest consumer. The Chinese step up gold purchases in preparation for the week-long National Day celebration that begins October 1, and the Chinese New Year occurring soon in the new Roman calendar year.
RGE View:
While the above demand drivers stem from the physical markets, the financial markets for the last few years have been the true price driver. The price of gold continues to appreciate predominantly due to its safe haven characteristics. Recent investor doubts regarding fiat currency made gold an attractive asset, in addition to its characteristic of being a “no default” risk investment. Gold has no counterparty risk, making it one of the few assets left in the world without an attached liability. Yet gold tends to perform well in fat tail events, such as depression/severe deflation or actual/anticipated inflation. While we believe there is still upside potential to gold, we feel it is limited. While the global economy currently fluctuates between these two fat tails, we see upside limited to US$ 1300-1350/ounce (both fundamentally and technically) for the balance of the year, barring an extreme event moving us into fat tail territory. On the downside, US$ 1150/ounce is our target.
Recommendation:
September may be a good month to take partial or full profits for an investor with a long gold position. Alternatively an interested investor could buy December put options. December is the second best month for gold, having risen month-on-month on average 2.18% in the period under study. Gold volatility, while not cheap, has come off a few percentage points from July, and has good potential to rise again toward the end of the year.
»
- 9791 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
An old Swiss saying goes "own some gold, and you'll never go hungry"
Well gosh Mr. Roubini, I hadn't thought about it quite like that.
I wonder which substance is better represented in the vaults of the world's wealthy:
Spam or Gold?
This one is a toughie alright. No wonder he's got such prestige, what genius!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anwy2MPT5RE
you guyz and youtube posts on this page, are very telling, men love this stuff. woman not so much.
mon ami, as endearing as you are, you must never dis the monty p! evah!
please appreciate us menfolk, monty the p is [shocked sarkosy accent/] sacrosanct.
we will nevah surrendah.
love monty P
Heavy metals are edible but not generally recommended, toxic and no nutritional value. US paper currency: edible greens, low cal and with a slight hint of cocaine. What's not to like?
All the fecal matter that is the extra added spice to that coke.
Last time gold peaked(1980) interest on bonds were 20%
America was a much stronger country back then(creditor nation
with strong productive industry)
Wondering how much interest people wants this time to separate
them from their gold.Any suggestions??
And ... North Sea and North Slope oil suddenly showed up dropping the price per barrel back to pre 1973 levels. Where is that cheap energy going to come from this time?
So let it drop.
For the Doctor...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8rH80cBWjQ&feature=related
Hold on to what you need...
"Much like a fiat currency, gold’s value is based largely on the irrational beliefs of investors."
If the Damn gave us a roadmap you would know which way to go.
The tide is still going out.
Ignore the Doctor please. Vanilla's prepare.
Im shunning gold and buying cases of Jack Daniels, in a Mad Max economy imagine the value! Cant eat, snort, or inject gold coins, the only thing people will really care about. Oh yea, and stock up on ammo so you can at least have a chance to defend it all.
Good luck.
you can wear gold coins around your neck.
"Yet somehow, despite gold's indigestible qualities, it is precisely gold which today hit an all time high once again"
Just like housing in 2005.
Gold is not at all like what happened in housing, your statement is utterly absurd.
Bleh, crappy internet
I'm not saying the circumstances are the same.
However, pointing to all time highs in prices is not a good justification in my eyes on its own. The argument just needs to be fleshed out more.
yeah it is; your problem is your perception. People told me, God don't make new land; it will always go up. Now, for 50k I can own dem bitches and have them suck my cock.
love it.
Everything is just energy in motion; gold is now where the energy is being placed; when it moves; the price of gold will go down; and I suspect the next bubble to be oil; and now is the time to get in.
Its very telling that at this time, prominent individuals are coming out in the open and making their distinct claims on the economy/market:
Buffett: Very bullish on the market
Soros: Gold is in a major bubble
Roubini: Bearish on Gold
Either they have fundamental research to support or this is being done in preparation to prevent/curb whats ahead. I recall back when Buffett came out and said equities are priced well enough to give nice returns in 3-5 years. 3/4 months later the market collapsed. So to me, the government has designates his purpose is to serve as the all trustworthy financier that can calm nerves of the general public.
gold diet bitchez
I think that the fed would like to carefully inflate our problems away, but they have to get the average consumer on board and aware that we are in an inflationary environment. It would help if you guys would stop speculating on gold and switch to commodities; consumer spending on gold is discretionary, bread is not. They have (supposedly) manipulated every other market and scared you people into commodities, but you are in the wrong commodities. Will they be able to find a way to induce you gold speculators to jump into more consumer oriented commodities? If they did find a way to do that would it represent some sort of black swan [to the gold investor]?
The poor doctor is obviously not aware of the luxary desserts out there that are served with gold-flecked toppings. Turns out you CAN eat gold.
http://blog.hotelclub.com/the-10-most-expensive-desserts-in-the-world/
I have a question for you gold bugs. When the global equities/commodities meltdown hits over the next month, investors are going to get hit with massive margin calls being leveraged to the hilt. To stay solvent, they are going to liquidate everything. Do you think a hedge fund manager or a mutual fund manager gives a flying f*ck about the value of gold? No, of course not. They are going to sell any and everything to stay afloat and keep their jobs. Gold will drop in the short term during the mass liquidation event.
This happens every month. Nothing new. Those holding it for short term profits are most likely already out of the market. Now when the fan blows FIAT in every managers face, he will miss any upwards move. I'm telling you, the anchor has been pulled and we are offshore and moving to new lands now. We are not turning back. Best to swim to us now. Do not mind getting a little wet, especially if your alternative is staying on that manic island of fire breathing unicorns and leprechauns hoarding vaults of FIAT.
I really don't think we have had a true meltdown. It has been controlled destruction by the HFTs and others manipulating the market. What about a true panic? Dow drops 1000 points a day?
Mr. LH - I agree with you. Anchor's gone. New Lands - here we go.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnpaPGHFsL4
You rent stocks. You miss the point.
What does Fiat have in context to History?
Do not confuse investors.
All I know about Fiat is that they are small and they are factory pre-rusted. (Max. speed 110 clicks/ph)
Stay away from anything fiat.
You rent stocks. You miss the point.
What does Fiat have in context to History?
Do not confuse investors or asset risk.
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2010/09/anglogold-ashanti-throws-in-towel-on.html
AngloGold Ashanit (AU) announced this morning that it will raise $1.2 billion, which will be used in conjunction with cash on hand plus credit lines, in order to eliminate its gold hedges, thereby indicating that its management obviously sees much higher gold prices ahead.
China, which surpassed Japan as the world’s second-largest economy last quarter, ran up a $119 billion trade deficit with the U.S. in the first half of 2010, putting it on a course to exceed last year’s total of $227 billion. It is also the biggest foreign investor in U.S. Treasury securities, with holdings of $843.7 billion in June.
IMO we are being pushed to SDR
Price drops hard on a smack-down as you describe would be my signal to buy twice as much as I normally do.
Bring it on!
That's not some esoteric knowledge. And we could care less what these managers do. This is a long term thing and it's big. Gold Bugs Smile, Smile, Smile.
the melt down will happen in november/december; these gold bugs don't know shit; they're fixated by the gleem.
Of course it will. Did last time. It did not suffer as much as other assets and recovered quickly. This just points out that gold is a store of wealth. It is "spent" when needed. I have a friend who bought gold from me a few years ago. He had to sell it back because he needed the cash. I paid him more for it than he paid me. It's "value" is now well above what I paid him. We both won. That is the beauty of gold. It really is a store of value. Somebody is bound to pop up with the fact that we exchanged fiat dollars in the process. Right. That's the currency du jour. I've seen a 1 oz gold eagle buy a decent used car. It's all in perception of value. Getting into pissing matches about semantics and small factoids will get ya broke.
I'm hoarding hooch. Vodka, mostly. Hey, it worked for the Russians. Apocalypse party at my place!
i will come to the party, can i wear your pink stiletto(e)s?
i love vodka martini. just got my first ever shaker. yeah really, what was i missing my whole time just drinking vodka with OJ. jeeze. now with your pink heels,party_on.
Curious to know what you will wear to accent those pink stiletto(e)s ...
A gold or silver teddy by chance?
i don't do teddys, dear.
probably some knee pads in gold.
Hmmm ... something like this ?
http://volleyball.epicsports.com/images/detail/8977/view.html
damn your g O_O d .
Kneepads?...Kathy, I think I'm in love.
Hey Fester, she is my girl ... go get yourself a light bulb!
go get yourself a light bulb!
just wondering what that implies?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAyPIgpruPA&feature=related
Look about a minute and 5 seconds in.
i actually aspired to be like her. dark dark @ more black.
still don't get what the light bulb means.
The problem with most economists is that they don't question the integrity of the US dollar as money. They live with the belief that US dollars are somehow tangible and limited. They don't understand why a whole group of people could quickly loose confidence in a currency or a form of circulating money and choose something else. They completely ignore the fact that gold has survived the "test of time" as a form of money. They ignore the fact that 1.3 billion Indians view gold as the ultimate store of wealth. They ignore the fact that Islam & Judaism explicitly view gold and silver, along with their weights as the only recognized form of money. A 40 year experiment with FIAT does not undo the history of people and money. So, at a time of stress, people run to what they know will survive the test of time. Only gold (for whatever barbaric reason) has, for better or worse, survived over the years in maintaining it's integrity as money.
Only gold (for whatever barbaric reason) has, for better or worse, survived over the years in maintaining it's integrity as money.
It's shiny and yellow.
Oh yeah: durable, divisible, relatively scarce, relatively stable, etc.
I am disappointed with Roubini's comments.
I think, as others do, that he has been admonished, and that potential positions in authority that he may aspire to have been used as incentive.
As to Soros's 'ultimate bubble' - my thought is that if it is so, the world on the other side of that bubble's collapse will be one that is very, very different than the one we are experiencing now. Certainly one without any currencies, governments, or social orders that we can recognize from this distance.
In the end, when your home and all the stuff inside is paid for, when your vehicles are paid for, and when all your taxes, maintenance, and incidentals are provided for, what harm could there possibly be in acquiring ounces of gold - price notwithstanding?
If you need the income from trading, there may be other considerations.
The obsessive monitoring of the price wiggles is really of no value when the longer view is taken, IMO.
"The things which have the greatest value in use have frequently little or no value in exchange; on the contrary, those which have the greatest value in exchange have frequently little or no value in use. Nothing is more useful than water: but it will purchase scarce anything"
-Adam Smith
I'll say one thing - gold's value is based totally on demand for it and that demand is emotional and predicated on the faith of other's demand at all levels above industrial use. You can be a gold bull or bear but that cannot be argued. Is the value of gold $1300? Maybe $5000? Why not $50,000 or $900m and oz? Simple answer - no one knows and no one honest will make the claim. Utility value and desire for a non-debasable proxy currency is high right now, maybe it gets a whole lot higher. Then again it was pretty damn high in the late 70s and early 80s - what happened then? Demand just went away, but why? We were on new fiat, uncertainty was sky high, what happened? Hmmm - people just didn't want it and that's all that mattered.
Know this - anyone who's an owner of gold today requires someone else to take them out when they convert their gold to fiat or hard goods at some point. For that to be profitable, they need that someone to buy into the fact that it is worth something and they are hoping its worth a whole lot more than it is today. This is fact and indisputable regardless of view.
Frankly, I think there's good odds of gold maintaing price here or close and optionality for a large upside move. I actually like gold for a number of reasons. That said - I know the risk is that I need someone else to believe when I want to get out and I know very well why people are pushing gold so hard. Because they are trying to create that belief in others to support and increase the price because industrial value is far below. So if you believe the stock market is manipulated or the most recent panacea of the masses - the gold market is the ultimate confidence scheme. It has worked in the past but sometimes it hasn't. I think this is a pretty fair and concise appraisal. No one is your friend in investments, by definition all market participants are your adversaries and if you intend to make outsized profits it will come from one of them selling for you to buy cheap or buying so you can sell. People talk their books on here like anywhere else.
Here Slim ... Try it this way.
Know this - anyone who's an owner of fiat today requires someone else to take them out when they convert.
Good luck.
Um, no, not actually. The idea is that it maintains a modicum of purchasing power. The "value" is not relevant.
Slim
Was that an apifiny ?
With those 3 paragraphs you have just changed 10,000 years of belief & history in the old relic.
Thanks !
Fuc% ! Things just ain't the same.
Actually, I didn't change anything. What I wrote is totally consistent with history. It just cuts through the BS and BS is useful to gold at times so it may be taken as negative to some.
Any medium of exchange is always about belief when it is separated from fundamentals. Fiat is paper outside of belief in underlying value and accepted medium of exchange. Gold is an element with some industrial use but beyond that it is only some consensus belief that provides the premium.
Gold has a long multi-cultural history of belief, I never argued that. Valuing that belief is very difficult over periods as others have found out in the not so recent past. Hell, the 70s sucked - why did it ever drop? No one really knows, it was already devoid from economic fundamentals as a metal so really nothing changed except that the belief went substantially down.
How can one pick the top and bottom of belief? Housing and tech stocks were certainly stupid and filled with belief but even those lent themselves to much better fundamental valuation. That said this can also work in Gold's favor, to my point, why not $50K an oz? Why not $200K an oz? No one can really argue for or against any valuation of it at those levels. Just a matter of belief.
At a minimum there will always be some base belief and your floor is industrial use so in almost any scenario you can preserve wealth with it and right now there's far more upside to belief than downside to the floor, but it could drop substantially and no one can argue for/against any of the values with fundamentals.
I'm not saying it's wrong. It's the nature of the beast, always has been. It's okay, it doesn't mean it's good or bad. Sometimes it's just useful to be honest and call a spade a spade rather than try to imagine it as something else.
Just my opinion, I totally respect anyone's right to hold another one.
Exactly right Slim, it's always been about faith.
If you were a wheat farmer back in the day, you would probably want a silo. If you are a solar panel, a Li battery might come in handy.
right on brother; the same was true for housing. your asset is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
why would i even try to eat it when i can trade it for a shitton of food
I have not kept up on my reading at zerohedge today so I don't know if this has been mentioned, but Jim Willie has a new commentary. It is linked at kitco.com.
For some of us who do not reside in the US, we have the freedom to say whatever we want. But the new legislation, allows the government to consider Roubini's speech as a threat to national security, similarly to spreading unsubstantiated roumors of a run in a specific bank.
Then.... who knows what someone did or threatened to do to him.
BTW: Hilary now said that the big deficits are also a threat to national security. She is looking to be fired so that she has a new platform to run against Obamarama (Yes! That does conotate that he has seen god.)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/97/Goldschläger.jpg
Gold is edible, just ask any 5-star restaurant chef.
"Wortheless" yellow metal being bought by "comprehensive" people as a "wealth substitute". I don´t get it. If one day any of the gold fanatics will be knocking on my door ( after the unevitable appocalypse of the "fiat monetary system" asking for food in exchange for gold, my answer will be : well, first of all throw this worthless yellow metal into the next river. Thereafter my refrigirator is yours!
"You cannot eat gold"
But I can buy the farm that makes the food with it.
Re. Roubini - The Ponzi has many servants. Some obvious. Some not so obvious.
I'm sure the U.S. neighbors to the north and south would be willing to trade a horse, cow, pig, chickens, or bushels of grain for my non currency eagles. Heck, they may even let me live there if I bring enough.
hey, what do you think of this list?
Millrock Resources - An Alaska mining company, good properties, good relations with the native landlords, good cash position and important! - a prospect generator type of company.They have a number of good properties and some are already farmed out to others who will do the heavy lifting to firnd the gold and spend their money doing it. They have a special prospecting agreement with Kinross, among others. Symbol - MLRKF, 78,562,791 shares outstanding, fully diluted. Closed today at $.45. Golden Predator Royalty and Mining - A Yukon mining company, been in the Yukon for about 10 years - have lots of properties and have 4 or 5 they are drilling with success right now. The only company up there that drills year round. They opperate on a totally different corporate model than any other gold or silver company I know of, hence the royalty in their name. They are collecting more than $1 million in royalties from properties they discovered and sold and continue to receive royalties. They hold three properties in Nevada that are small, but very high grade deposits and a mill nearby.They plan to mine these for the next year or two and collect enough gold to finance the development of theYukon properties to avoid diluting current share holders. A great idea. Symbol - GPRXF, 89,900,000 shares outstanding, fully diluted. Closed today at $.5 Riverside Resources - Properties in Mexico, Nevada, Arizona - more than 35 properties in all. They are a prospect generator company as well. Currrently partnering with five or six others to explore their properties, Kinross is among them and has had some good drill holes in the last sixty days. They are smart operators, all of them. I first became interested in them two years ago in New Orleans. Then they were preparing to drill a property just west of Casa Grande, called Sugar Loaf. They have since discovered about l million ounces of gold there.The company is starting to move up in price and they are capturing investor interest. It is 10% owned by someone who is one of the most knowledgeable people I know in the gold business. I'm following the leader and I own the stock. Symbol - RVSDF, 27,439,160 shares outstanding, fully dilluted. Closed today at $.70. Universal Power Corp.- This is a different play - oil. Universal controls 52,000 square kilometres of drilling rights (some permitted) offshore Namibia, Africa. When the continents broke apart millions of years ago, what is now Namibia and Brazil were connected. Oil has been discovered offshore Brazil in the last year or two in huge quanities (30+ billion barrels - more oil than Saudia Arabia has or had) The discovery field ws called Tupi and is currently being produced. They don't know how much oil they have. Namibia is about a couple or three years behind, but they have the same characteristics as Brazil. Brazil drillled in 10,000 feet of water, I don't think inittial drilling in Namibia will be that deep. Universal has been involved in testing their permitted property for over a year and in July received the report from the engineering company doing the word. They project more than 1 billion barrels of gas and oil. Universal in planning to drill for gas as there is a ready market in the are for natural gas.There is scads more to this story but the hour is late and I'm wearing thin. Symbol - UNX.V (you'll need to get the US symbol from a broker), 100,640,032 shares outstanding (not fully dilluted). It closed today at $2.37. Uranium Energy Corp. This is a company in Texas. Over the past 20 to 30 years, they have quietly taken control of all the in sutu uranium properties in the United States. They have a team of the most knowledgeable, hands on uranium experts in the United States and maybe the world. Among the things they collected was the only in sutu uranium processing facility in the United States. And it is permitted to operate immediately. UEC plans to begin operating in the next quarter of '10 and expects to be a major producer of yellow cake in 18 months. Uranium is in short supply and has been for years. It's currently selling for $46.50 per pound today. UEC uses the in sutu method of mining uranium, the most efficient and cheapest method - it's a process of pumping heated water into the hole and pumping out the ore-saturated water, hauling it to the nearby processing facility, which turns it into yellow cake,a fuel ready to be further processed into fuel rods. It's the most efficient process for mining uranium,hence the cheapest. Symbol - UEC (AMEX0 73,006,734 shares outstanding, fully dilluted. It closed today at $2.61Did this fax come from Africa ?
no, it was an email to my brother, via harry.
Does anyone really give a rats ass what Roubinin says anymore, he is obviously under the cloak of government shillacy now.
+1
“If you own your own home free and clear, people will often refer to you as a fool. All that money sitting there, doing nothing.”
- Anthony Hsieh, CEO Lending Tree
(Aug 28th, 2005)
IMO, Gold will be at its peak when the places on every other corner now buying gold turn to selling it at double or triple the going price and have lines of people waiting for shipments to arrive.
The lines will be long in size and temporally as well!
confiscation wont happen..why? well we are not on a gold standard based currency like we were in the 30s..and what less than 5% of the population know hows to spell gold and silver let alone owns any.
-more people have Pb protecting their stash
another thing that exists today that didnt 70 years ago, many people own other country's shiney metals. imo, its stirring a hornets nest by confiscatin a foreign country's gold, no?
As I sit here, watching gold and silver rise in price according to learcapital.com, gold approaches $1,280 and silver $21.00 -- what was everyone saying again?
The dollar seems to be up 5% one month and down 5% the next. Could that possibly mean it has little intrinsic value, based solely on faith and bubbles. I hate to think so...
BS,,, stupid idiot even dont have a clue
#p 10 percent one month, down 10 percent the next
monthly rngs gold
aug 6.3%
jul 7.7%
jun 6.3%
may 8%
alx
The mixed conflicting market signals return. It reminds me of periods in 2007/2008 during the market uncertainty and dislocation in addition to market intervention or rumours of market intervention (like the QE chatter now).
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
I refer to Grand Supercycle as the MEGAPHONE MAN!
I first noticed the MEGAPHONE pattern in the financials late last year in FALL 2009. They just kind of fell of a cliff acting eradically, while the rest of the market continued to climb from QE1. It took a few months, but sure enough, same pattern has now appeared manifesting itself in all major indices and currencies throughought the world. The financials, just like they say, are a great leading indicator.
The MEGAPHONE can be a notorious BEARTRAP, and a BULLTRAP for the matter to. It is essentially in the same family of broadening top formations, but with a twist. The MEGAPHONE is an exact inverse of a symmetrical flag based consolidation, but in reverse. It is characteristic of extreme swings (EMOTIONAL TRADERS) forming consecutive higher highs and lower lows with each abrupt reversal, catching everyone off guard.
It is a very rare pattern. While it did not show up in the indices during the great depression, it was prevalent in the price patterns of many companies that folded after the 1929 collapse. Eventually, the BUYERS typically are the first to throw in the towel, giving it up to the bears in a spectacular breakdown. But such is not always the case. Sometimes the BULLS will take it. I spotted this pattern in some charts from the 40's and 50's, then again around the 70's, and now today.
A couple weeks ago, I a had quite a bit of risk on the long side going against me. A family member (who is also a trader) contacted me out of the blue telling me TO GET OUT OF THE MARKET. This was the exact advice I needed to confirm my STAYING IN THE MARKET. As this family member (who was one of the most wealthiest in our family), lost 90% of his wealth during the last 10 years.
Needless to say, two weeks later I am selling in the green. Even took a little off my hedge silver and gold holdings. Yeah, I know, I play the paper PM market, but hey, I'm just not into the whole physical thing. People think I am crazy enough. If they knew I were hoarding gold, I'd be committed immediateley. lol
BTW, a closer look at this pattern in the financials, you also see a major head and shoulders. But, what is different is that the time frame encompassing both patterns is FLAT, indicating a bottom. The bottom in the financials was recently broken, but bounced back immediateley with a vengeance. I am inclined to beleive that this whole market fiasco just may surprise us all and eventually resolve to the upside.
Happy Trading!
hi velo, i really miss being velobabe. oh well†
I'm just not into the whole physical thing. why?
(EMOTIONAL TRADERS)
(EMOTIONAL TRAITORS)
The trend's your friend until she ain't.
I found lots of interesting information here. I love zerohedge.
virtual server hosting
windows 2008 vps hosting
mssql hosting
windows vps server