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Rumor Versus Fact: An Insider's Report On A Manipulated Market
Full expanded blow by blow of today's action from the CBOT via pitnoise.com.
Rumors Vs. Data
Well, well, well, today was an interesting day indeed. It was a tug-of-war of sorts, with apathy pulling against very…VERY…bad data. Luckily for the fearless apathetic lot amongst us who couldn’t care less about cascading sovereign debt defaults on the world’s doorstep and increasingly horrific job losses, a hero emerged. Someone started a rumor that one company among the tens of thousands listed on the exchanges would be buying back shares – a stock split – and the market E X P L O D E D.
As an example, the March S&P futures gapped open much lower due to the poor economic data (coming later) and quickly put in a low at 1084.70. From there the high frequency traders (HFT) took over and churned the markets back and forth slowly for the entire morning and early afternoon session, thus keeping fear at bay. Additionally, when the market did swoon a bit, Golden Slacks supported the market by buying large size in the big S&P pit.
In the early afternoon it hit like a mad PPT trader masquerading as a legitimate agent of the NY Federal Reserve: MASSIVE BUYING! Within minutes the S&P500 along with the other major markets took flight and quickly rallied 1%. Had a rate cut followed the recent rate hike? Was the recent horrific economic data revised by the BS artists at the BLS? Nope – the market took off because it was rumored that AAPL would split its stock 4:1. Yep. A rumor. A *^%$#!G rumor! About 30-minutes after the short covering carnage started AAPL denied the story…and the market proceeded to ADD to its gains.
When the S&P500 came upon the 3:15pm close, the market had settled negative, but hardly. The rally was good for 17.50 points from the low equating to a 1.6% reversal. And in case you didn’t know, a 1% market move equates to well over $100 billion in market capitalization. Therefore, this amazing move tacked on ~ $180,000,000,000.00 to the US (non-rigged) market cap. How nice.
Oh, did I mention this was based on a RUMOR…an UNFOUNDED RUMOR? Not to worry though folks – you can bet your bottom dollar that the fellas on Fraud Street weren’t about to let a massive rally fade away to nothing. After the initial period when AAPL denied the rumor and the market churned around 1097.00, then the market went even higher.
Said another way, Fraud Street kept the gains based on a known FALSE rumor…and then…wait for it….wait for it…I G N O R E D the real news of the morning. It was a well timed replay of the Greek bailout rumor of Feb. 9th. How healthy is this market if its best moves are 100% fabricated bull$#it?
I have another question or two: Who benefited from this other than Goldman Sachs? I wonder how many magical S&P500 at-the-money calls were purchased moments before the explosion? I wonder if the SEC will investigate? Would the Lame Stream Media ignore this if a false rumor triggered a 1.6% rout? OK, I know the answer to the last two – and it’s no.
So what caused the market to fall apart before the open? Oh, nothing really. Hmm, let’s see here; we have Greece on the verge of bankruptcy due to a further credit downgrade, the guaranteed spread of this sovereign debt disease to other EU countries, the guaranteed disintegration of several large EU banks, political & social unrest, a fake durable goods data point, and another so-called surprisingly bad weekly jobless claims data point.
Who is surprised by any of this worse than expected bad news? Oh yeah, only economists. We covered that yesterday. Way to go fellas – another EPIC FAIL at the guessing of the weekly data. (I’m sure glad my Dr. doesn’t “guess” when he treats my ailments.)
“Equities slumped early as the cost of insuring against default on Greek government debt rose a fourth day on concern ratings downgrades will cut the nation’s access to European Central Bank funding.” You can bet on it. “Greece has to repay more than 20 billion euros ($27 billion) of maturing bonds and bills by the end of May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A Moody’s downgrade may make it harder for the nation’s banks to fund themselves by making Greek government debt ineligible as collateral for European Central Bank loans.” You can bet on that too.
The Durable Goods report got major headlines from the Lame Stream Media about how bullish the number was. This is only the case for the headline number. Responsible for the good headline number was a 126% increase in civilian aircraft orders (these orders can be cancelled, by the way). Outside of transportation, orders fell 0.6%. Core capital equipment and machinery orders dropped 2.9% and 9.7%, respectively, which are the important ones that determine the direction of the economy. For all of 2009, durable goods fell a record 20%. But don’t worry, it “could have” been worse.
Later we find out that economists had expected weekly jobless claims to be 460,000. It was a surprising 496,000. Now I’m not a high-falutin’ economist, but I think the latter number is a lot worse than the former. Let me grab a calculator here…YEP, sure enough – it’s worse. But some market watchers only pay attention to the four-week moving average to get around the occasional problem of large weekly data. Yeah, umm, no help here either: this number has risen by 30,000 to 473,750 in the last four-weeks.
But hold on to your hats – what’s this? A rumor you say? To hell with the facts – buy, buY, bUY, BUY!!!!
With that said, you can see from the attached trading results today we follow the trend, not the news, and NEVER the so-called experts. In the end we faired well. However, everything printed here are unmitigated FACTS and you need to know them. When the day comes that the markets cannot pump up an insane rally on pure nonsensical rumor, but rather sells off on the bad news, at least I can say I tried to warn you. This market is sick.
To be sure, that day will come. Its date, however, is unknown.
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”
via www.pitnoise.com
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LOL -- Will the SEC investigate? Of Course They Will -- They Are Here To Protect ALL Investors and Insure A Transparent Market. It's Just part Of Their Job To Look Into These Types of Matters -- That Is Of Course If They Can Be Worked In With All Of The "Top People" From The FED Who Will Be Looking Into GS and Their Greek Activities. The "Looking Into Matters" Waiting Room Will Be Quite Crowded
Yes, The Creme De La Creme of gumshoe investigators will be eyes open while you sleep... GS Has no chance.....
Cuban cigars for everybody...
These folks are already rich beyond most people's dreams. Why wouldn't they want total control of everything? Why wouldn't their strategy be BUY EVERY DIP FOREVER, because they want it all, and they want us all groviling for anything to live: food, a home, a job, medical care, medicine.
If money is no object, the object is control, then it will be the same game till they have virtualy everything.
Thoughts?
Heh, heh, if they're buying it all, they
sure are overpaying.
Because they're aristocratic sociopaths that really do want to return to feudalism?
Look, these people think that THEY own the Earth, and that we're merely a virus, a flock of useless eaters that are destroying their pristine lakes, forrests, oceans, ect.
We're using up THEIR oil, their farmland, and their base materials.
Can't have a republic. Can't have it. Can't have it. Can't have it. The cattle need to be controlled. And the best way to do that is deny the herd grain.
It's pretty much that simple. The aristocracy is calling the shots, based on their best interests. And you are NOT their best interests.
ZH tops out at #10. but the listing was alphabetical.
Ten Wall Street Blogs You Need to Bookmark Now Wall Street Journal.
It's not the mandate of the SEC to investigate people doing God's work.
This is my first post here guys so please bear with me.
I'd like to know what you all make of this:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/
I have been following this site's Thursday 4:30pm weekly postings religiously for over a year.
Take a look at Table 3 - M1 Currency - we are close to a record (seasonally adjusted) at 866.4 Billion and also close to a record (non-seasonally adjusted from Table 5) at 869.8 billion.
Couple of questions:
1. How much really does it say here that the currency in circulation is increasing? The FED "prints" money in other ways with purchasing their own bonds, etc. but is this still a key indicator?
2. If this page or statistic means a lot, might Goldman Sachs get their "insider" hands on these reports before the 4:30pm after market posting?
The SEC is nothing more than a bunch of idiots.
The market may be sick, but your journalism, and the tone of your commentary is superb. At last news I can rely on, you actually make arranging the deck chairs seem ok, and the water isn't even looking so cold anymore. The band is playing sweetly, and we're all going down together.
By the way, server was glitchy and slow this am, no doubt because everyone with a brain cell has realized this is the place for the real news.
Keep up the great work - thank you!!
Hey, it's all about the trend.
As long as you know the trend, you can make money. For example:
The Titanic hits an iceberg. It tilts 45 degrees. Chairs slide down the deck.
See those chairs sliding? That, my friend, is a trend!
Booyah! BUY BUY BUY!
"Hey, it's all about the trend."
That and a tweet from above.
What if at the moment you buy, buy, buy they start sliding up deck and go over the board on other side? Miracle!!!
That truly explains what I'm seeing out of the corner of my eye as I browse through the daily headlines over the past 2-3 weeks...chairs sliding up the deck. Is it just me, or has reality completely left the room this month? I go to Bloomberg, scan through the headlines on the left(which I'll venture to guess are spun more positively than is warranted), then scan through the numbers on the right, then wonder if every thing I have ever learned is for naught. Seriously....I'm really creeped the fuck out. For the last 1 year +, I have been angry. In the last couple of weeks the anger has become fear. When I can no longer make any sense of my surroundings, I can no longer make myself believe I have any ability to see what is coming around the bend. Is anyone else experiencing anything like this?
yes, i'm experiencing the same thing and i trade for myself almost daily
it means we need to go to CASH very soon. same thing happened in 1st half of 2008...nothing was making sense...market rallying on all time highs in oil and commodities day after day even though economy was in recession
you should be in fear right now. i am. the market has lost completely all sense...i see it now.......for what its always been. a game...except now its 110% phschology and BS...i wouldn't doubt a 50% correction one this non-sense is over and the true economy collapses again
What if most of the real money that
once supported the market has been
destroyed and now the market and
much of the economy only seem to
exist due to fake regulation and
Fed liquidity?
You no longer trust your environment. Stress and anxiety is a natural reaction. Perhaps you should consider reframing your perspective to enjoy 'living in the now'. Let go of any false sense of predicting the future and control. Stress kills.
+1
This is really a clever comment. It's 50% sarcastic and 50% true...and the other half is funny.
"You no longer trust your environment. Stress and anxiety is a natural reaction."
Does anyone else here feel (at least in part) the same way? That the more that time marches on (for whom the bell tolls, anyone?), then the less you trust the environment?
Look, there's no real problem with rational self-interest. But, when the majority of market participants are shysters, what's an honest capitalst gonna do?...besides hold his or her cash/earnings on the sideline?
Live in the now, indeed.
That's called a contrarian play.
fucking fantastic -- well said
gunsmoke011,
Even if the SEC DID investigate it (as if they will...), the move has happened and they won't undo it unfortunately (I was out for meal with friends and was flat, so I lost no money on it).
Tyler, question - if it was purely a rumour, why has there been no later sell-off? The overnight Dow (here in the UK) is UP another 30 points or so, I would have thought a sell off would have occurred.
DavidC
Tyler,
When will you figure out that these things: rumors, economic indicators, announcements by Bernanke etc., don't move markets?
They are RATIONALIZATIONS for market movements.
Everyday, the financial media feeds us some bullshit for what moved the market. This week it was Consumer Confidence Reports, Employment Numbers, and Bernanke. Next week it will be something else.
But, in reality, it's just the most powerful exchange members maximizing their profit potentials.
Ding ding ding! We have a winner!!! Please step forward and collect your prize!
True enough!
The media would only become indignant if somehow the Repub party was somehow benefiting. Otherwise, move along, nothing to see here...
The phony left-right paradigm will keep you stuck inside the box.
You'll never figure anything out until you are willing to entertain unpopular perceptions.
If I may be so bold as to speak for Tyler, I'm sure he knows they are "rationalizations" for market moves.
The market makes the news, the news does not make the market.
The well timed rumor caused a massive short covering rally that was obvious to anyone who bothered to look. (Yes, I took advantage of it all the way up.)
So it wasn't "just a rumor" and it surely wasn't "just GS," it was mainly (imo) short covering followed by trend/momo traders, etc.
And why wouldn't the market reverse when the rumor is known to be false? Come on, this is Wall Street we're discussing - why would they give up the gains? Who cares HOW it got there they'd say...it's there (a new level).
Rationalizations?! Damn. I thought they were tactical cover.
"When will you figure out that these things: rumors, economic indicators, announcements by Bernanke etc., don't move markets?
They are RATIONALIZATIONS for market movements."
Except when the entity moving the market is also creating the cover story, or what you call the "rationalization" for market movements. I agree that many talking heads are simply coming up with reasons for this or that.
But the big boys actually do manipulate the markets, usually under cover of some rumor or story or whatever. Plausible deniability is the name of the game.
This market is sick.
Outfrigginstanding post, Mister Larry.
Hey Mary Schapiro, define market manipulation
The mission of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is to protect investors, maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets, and facilitate capital formation.
Today’s equity trading got off to a rough start given the less than stellar core economic released prior to the official open. As most traders expected, the equity market commenced selling during pre-market and continued its weakness until around 12:25 pm.
At this juncture the S & P 500 futures launched and brought the rest of the equity market along for the ride. The "financial news outlets" a.k.a. CNBC noted that the launch of equities coincided with a rumor hitting the trading floor that Apple Computer was going to complete a 4-1 stock split.
As usual, the rumor was later rejected by Apple Computer however now that the robots trading the market entered the stratosphere, the market proceeded to kick in the after burners for another leg up.
Grandpa is curious if Schapiro and your band of selective incompetent enforcers deem market manipulation solely when the market goes down?
The SEC managed to implement a new short sale ruling which would indicate you have a bias to the upside given the fact the market has many issues that one could argue are not “natural”.
Let me help you out with a few examples of “peculiar upward biases to the market”:
Options expiration week (funny how the market tends to head north during the 3rd week of every month)
End of the month “window dressing”
Holiday shortened week “window dressing”
End of the quarter “window dressing”
End of the year “window dressing”
Mid-day rumor "window dressing"
I believe I spend more time researching than you Ms. Schapiro as I do what I can for my family in an effort to generate a fair living trading this unregulated, insane market. Who would have thought that "maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets" was nothing more than barnyard fertilizer.
My best to everyone as this market has become nothing more than a prop for a 3rd sequel to I Robot.
THANK YOU ZERO HEDGE AS YOU ARE TRULY THE BEST!
There are no longs, There are no shorts, There is no SEC, There are no investors, There are no nations, There are no Peoples, There is no Law.. There is only Goldman Sacs. Why does everyone beleive the SEC is going to save the day. Its over folks. The Cancer is too far gone.
+10
Pitnoise should not question the Plunge Protection Team.
They are doing "God's work."
The SEC won't investigate because they are "all idiots over there"
Hooray! More money for those in control.
I keep thinking of the millions of unsuspecting people with 401K plans. When the Goldman Sachs maggots are finished, they are in for a traumatic shock.
And a hell of a ride with impending increased volatility.
Up... down... up... down... like a schoolyard bully holding the nerd by his ankles shaking the lunch money out of his pockets.
When the kid (market) is finally dropped to the ground... BB and Timmay will rush in to assist the TBTF's with trillions in cheap loans to buy everything... 'saving' the markets and enriching themselves in the process...
Hyper-inflation can then begin.
Nice visual that...Up down..the don't think sprayed darjeeling is good for keyboards! :-)
As I have said before,,
This is one continuous creeping coup of insurrection against the constitution and law from beginning to end!!!!
Good luck with general strikes,,,,this country has no stomach for it..
Unfortunately, I can not tell you what data I have access see, where I work, or what my role is, but I will tell you this. The market is being manipulated and our country is being ruined. Where the he!! is the SEC? Where are you? Are you stupid or is this being done with your OK? Does the central banks want this market up so badly they are willing to let wall street rip everyone off in the process?
the central bank is owned by those who are manipulating. its no secret.
It's only a rort if you're not in on it
Australia or New Zealand?
Aussie
Hello my friend,,
Steve Keen told me that the housing market is, shall I say on fuck street, In Aussie,, keep your head low.
G'Day cobber....most diggers down here think we've been vaccinated for what's coming over from the ol'USofA...Australia's mortgage market is the be all & end all for most folk here...anyhow's like most ZH folk I'll keep trying to short the Mother F...er out of this market until pay day arrives
How many blog entries do we need that say the same thing? Everything in this post can be found in today's earlier entries, and probably in more well-written ones too. And still no clear marker on the front page that this is a GUEST POST. Too many Tyler Durdens != quality control.
Obama proposing to freeze forclosures is what jacked the mkt in the late afternoon.
Google news search for Feb 25, 2010 says:
Your search - obama foreclosure - did not match any documents.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahuuwBS8KYq8&pos=2
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration may expand efforts to ease the housing crisis by banning all foreclosures on home loans unless they have been screened and rejected by the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program.
The proposal, reviewed by lenders last week on a White House conference call, “prohibits referral to foreclosure until borrower is evaluated and found ineligible for HAMP or reasonable contact efforts have failed,” according to a Treasury Department document outlining the plan.
“It is one of the many ideas under consideration in the administration’s ongoing housing stabilization efforts,” Treasury spokeswoman Meg Reilly said in an e-mail. “This proposal has not been approved and there are no immediate planned announcements on the issue.”
She confirmed the authenticity of the document, which hasn’t been made public.
At present, lenders can initiate foreclosure proceedings on any loan that hasn’t been submitted for HAMP eligibility. Under current HAMP rules, foreclosure litigation can proceed while borrowers are under review for the program or even in a trial modification.
The proposed changes would prohibit lenders from initiating new foreclosure actions before loan screening by HAMP and would require lenders to halt existing proceedings for borrowers once they are in a trial repayment plan.
Hi all,
just started reading this blog and am glad ive found it.
i spent some time trading a few years ago and did ok for myself but found i lacked the capital to make a decent return for my time. im looking at re-entering the trading sphere (with a definate downside bias)and there seems to be a lot more sites/blogs/info online then there used to be.
If anyone has a favoured site for tips, discussions, blogs & commentary they use (aside from ZH) id love to hear of it and would appreciate the heads up. Seems to be plenty of switched-on traders & participants here so id like to know what sources you all use. if anyone would like to hit reply to this post just with some site names or links (no obscure midget fetish p0rn though thanks, ive got plenty already) that'd be really appreciated.
oh yeah - i've always preffered swing & trend trading to trying to pick up minor subdaily movements, (i always found that too fast, volatile and unpredictable on high leverage) if that helps..
cheers, matt.
madhedgefundtrader
Just flip a coin...seriously though, if you have not traded in the last few years, now is not the time to start trading, given the current schizo-maniacal market of late. Sit this one out.
Ive been watching quietly from the sidelines for sometime. but sometimes you cant help what you're gut is telling you. Im coming over the fence and am looking to go short aggressively. I understand that there are games being played at the moment but you cant ignore gravity forever and it seems i cant reconcile ignoring these types of situations (believe me ive thought about it).
im really looking for some reading material, blogs and commentary (such as this site) to try to get my head in the game and a firmer understanding of the 'whole' market at the moment.
for example, it'd be good to get some commentary on the full range of ETFs that exist now as im sure they've added a few in the last couple of years.
what other sites and pages aside from this one have people found useful??
Cheers again,
Matt
GS will be happy to see you coming :)
Good luck, Matt.
"About 30-minutes after the short covering carnage started AAPL denied the story…and the market proceeded to ADD to its gains."
Hmm... maybe because the market rallied for OTHER reasons! Stocks are undervalued here. Especially Apple! Apple will most likely be the large company in the world, by market cap, in 20 years. Would you have bought stocks in June, July '09 if you knew what the earnings reports would have looked like this quarter? They were incredible! I was made a believer. Jobs don't matter. Companies still exist and make money with high unemployment. The strong will survive and thrive. Fraud will continue to exist. It's just more apparent than ever because of new technologies. It will be reduced as time goes on. Mankind is progressing! Higher living standards than ever before, just try going back and living in the 60s. Once oil runs out, we'll be ready... so much money to be made, we'll be ready. I look forward to a day when bowel movements are no longer necessary.
Your post indicates that bowel movements are here to stay
Leo?
+1 - I was expecting it before I saw it, still LOLd
hedge legends like PTJ will tell you that many young, extremely intelligent traders and money managers always need an answer to everything, and then miss the big picture. i try to tell myself that on days like day, when a days work evaporates in my face. it is no condolence to me, however, because we do live and work in a rigged matrix of financial markets. every government on earth depends on this market going up - so this is just the beginning. unfortunately the credit inflation (not price) genie is broken - and there is nothing anyone or anything can do to save these markets from a deflationary crash...............
You slavishly toiled away for those 1's and 0's floating from hard drive to hard drive in cyberspace. You earned those bits, dammit, and the man took them from you!
Just remember, after a 100 point sell off look for an obvious support line that GS is hiding behind and buy large quantities with a tight stop behind the line a few clicks--you'll hit pay dirt more often than not. If you can't beat the crooks join them.
Larry Levin strikes again!
Can someone explain how floor traders work? Does a rumor go nationwide in seconds and orders pump into floor traders in minutes? Or do floor traders buy on the come line and wait for unsuspecting buyers to phone in and say " whats the spin today"
I just don't see how it all works to that level of buying on rumor. Thanks
This site rocks - Zero Hedge is the cosmic reason the Internet evolved - God is Good, as is Tyler, Marla and the entire Zero Hedge crew!
A stock split means nothing in terms of value. Why would that rumor or fact, for that matter, move a market?
Damned if I know, but, apparently Steve Jobs giving people four $5 bills in exchange for a $20 bill is a big deal.
Article is titled:
Rumor Versus Fact: An Insider's Report On A Manipulated Market
The article is written by a commentator, right? So this is not even hindsight trading, it is hindsight commentating, right? Why is a commentator considered an 'insider'? Whole article is a big moan about getting beaten up by GS. Ho hum.
Beat up by GS? Looks like he profited from the short covering.
Fidel - you are right, thank-you.
I should have said many of the comments are just a moan about being beaten up by GS. Such moaning and gnashing of teeth is getting really old ... still, good excuse down at the pub to explain losses ... better than taking responsibility.
Every child in the world should be taught economics starting in 3rd grade.
But (beginning a sentence with a dangling modifier==very bad) if they did that, then every 3rd grader in the world would know that all of the current economic policies are completely 'unsustainable' but I do think that in the interest of brevity, the 3rd graders would be apt to call it stupid just to clarify what it actually is.
The mathematics of the current model 'allow' for 1% of the worlds population to 'inherit' for want of a better word, over 99% of the 'money' thought contruct created in this fiat and therefore imaginary world of economics. Now doesn't that strike you as a broken model in need of revision?
How about this. A new model of economics that allows for no more than say, 10% of 'money' thoughtfully created thru due process , albiet for the most part an entirely intellectual one revolving around 'debt', or future indebtured service to be rendered, to ever be allocated to the possesion of less than say, 5% of the population.
All the rest of the 'money' must be in some process of distrubution among the other 95% of humanity, in a homogoneous spread of 'wealth', being the allocation of material goods and services to others.
Sad that for a sentient being that has postulated life among the stars, for the rather amazing level of evolution we have currently acheived, we cannot be patient enough to wait out the next 10 or 20 thousand so years of evolution it will take us to fully enter the next echelon of creation, where we as an existant species in the universe don't have that many problems to consider.
-MobBarley
I hope Chopshop has read this post; are you listening Chopshop? Do you seriously believe that we have free markets that run on price discovery, supply & demand, & any relationship to any fundamentals or hard news? TA is great for short term trading; I use it everyday, but there has to be committed buyers/sellers in any market that have conviction so they can hold on to positions longer than nanoseconds, milliseconds, seconds, minutes, or hours.
Your comment on another post is disconcerting. It is clear to me that you don't "get it." I recommend you read Reminiscences of a Stock Operatorby Edwin Lefevere. The operators change over the years, but the game never does...
really ? really ??
and wow, Lefevere ... HOW funny you would cite that one, of all books, of all tomes, of all original content, that one.
yeah, i don't know my livermore well enough or how to operate tape. definitely. and, clearly, my historical knowledge sucks too.
what should i go read after to learn more about how to trade ? maybe darvas ? should i go right to cramer ? or is there a better pamphlet of trading worthlessnes you could suggest ? wow ~ great 'trading' materials.
um, how's that 1340 gold working out ? did GSCO screw you out of that one too ?
Zerohedge,
I love you guys. Great journalism.
But I would love you guys more if we brought this mainstream and got those stupid ass SEC people to do something about this market manipulation. So please do me a favor, and kick SEC's ass. It would be epic. Legendary.
Please ZH. I love you guys.
Sorry gang. The market just is. Retro-fitting lame conspiracy theories is really getting old.
These market manipulators had better be careful!
I am talking about the GS, JPM and the rest of that crooks on Fraud Street. This is clearly a post that must not be deleted, because it does deal with loss, and how some people poorly deal with those losses.
A crazy insane man just flew an airplane loaded with fuel into a building in Austin, because he believed that the IRS had "done him wrong" and he erroneously believed that the IRS was the cause of all his problems. Do they think there are not other crazy people out there, that are perfectly willing to do the same thing because "they have nothing more to lose"?
""I Am Joe's Enraged, Inflamed Sense of Gross Inequity."
Now change that to the GS and JPM and the rest of clearly market manipulators. How long do these people think that crazy, insane down oh their luck people will lose everything in a rigged game, that is clearly documented here, and not act in a socially acceptable way?
Yes I am talking about a misguided loser, that has probably lost his life savings either through the rigged game or through his bad trading and investing. The cause does not matter to a person crazed by loss, engorged with despair, and enraged against a real or perceived malevolent "system".
As the "Narrator" on Fight Club,"... with a gun barrel between your teeth, you speak only in vowels."
I now know of 2 suicicides in my immediate circle of aquaintences that can be attributed to "losing" in this economy. These people were productive people that had "gotten lost" along the way, and as they continued their downward spiral proper decision making went clearly out the window. They tried the "hail Mary's" of all types, with the chips all in to "get back even" and never could.
"I Am Joe's raging bile duct."
People are desperate, and money is nothing to judge yourself by, nor to measure your worth in this world.
But those living in a rigged game tend to not have the most clear vision of the horizon, and the decision making process is muddled by desperation. We have those people in excess, and they are the statistics of the stressed people coming off 99 weeks of extended emergency UE Comp. In a month, these people will be desperate, and wanting payback.
Out of that 20-28 million "unemployed and under-employed", you have to ask the question:
"How many of those are as crazy as the guy with the plane in Austin, or the people with the explosives in Greece at the JPM bank?"
lighten up Francis.
I don't know anyone worth a rats a$$ in a meaningful profession that isn't fully employed. 70% of the schlucks in high school didn't have full opportunity either, because they sucked, extrapolate that into the real world. Lots of real estate, "financial professionals" and car salesmen need to be fully employed, maybe they should have been thankful they were considered to be part of respectable society instead of living their gluttonous never ending creamsicle lifestyle. Poor me, that $60k yukon, $80k lexus, private school, $200 data plan and $4k mortgage on $200k a year might be too much.
Rule #1) Never risk more than you are able to lose in a single trade. Your friends that did hail mary passes and went all-in time and time again were responsible for their own self-destruction. I have lost my ass trading before, but I've never blown out. It takes a man to say, Damn I just got fucked hard on that one, and instead of blindly running in trying to "make it all back", you get back to your post and you sit like a sniper waiting for the next opportunity. When I first started trading whenever I lost I wanted to make it all back immediately and I would lose even more. Luckily I never blew all the way out and I'm able to keep pitching. I'm sorry to hear about your friends, but as all of us here choose to trade we must all realize we can lose. The market has always been manipulated bullshit, but you can still make a good income with sound money management and waiting for profitable set ups...
You words are correct Biff, but YOU are obviously a "rational" thinker and not a "rationalizer".
That was the point to my post, I was talking about the people that are NOT rational. The "hail Mary's" I was talking about were not specifically to do with stock or investing.
When people get desperate, they make silly crazy decisions such as cutting back on the food budget to expand their lottery Ticket purchases to "increase their odds" a little.
Makes no sense, to you or me, but that is how the desperate think. How else do you make the decision to burn your won house down, load a plane up with fuel, and then fly it into a building and hurt and kill people that did nothing wrong and did no wrong to your person????
I trade and invest on the same philosophy you state, but we are rational.
It is the crazy ones you need to be worried about.
Very true my friend, again sorry to hear about your friends. Like I said before. Muhammad Atta flew into the wrong f'n building...
like Gerald Celente says "when people loose everything they loose it" so true
When the punchbowl of Bernanke bucks stops in March, and is only for overnight lending vice the never-ending stream it is now, maybe we'll see a new "manipulation" ....do I hear a short?
You really believe that the Fed will stop buying in March? Woe unto ye who believe the unbelieveable.
It is all just a conditioning process for short sellers.
The index ramping and squeeze is a metaphorical rolled-up newspaper to beat the dog(short seller) who tries to shit on the market.
"They" will never let the market crash again ever.
Free markets are a thing of the past.
It's a conditioning process for the longs, as well. With every dip that is followed by a rally, the longs get more and more complacement.
Sooner or later, that dip will keep dipping.
PS> I agree with the post by everyman......it is only a matter of time before "shit" balloons.
In case you haven't noticed, the markets, like many things in life , often defy explanation. We are all suffering . Keep the faith and be positive . As Frank Zappa used to say "It's great to be alive ! "
Zappa also said Broken Hearts are For Assh*les.
Mssr. Cramer talks about how it is done. C'est simple.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI
- AB
The late owner of Studio 54, Steve Rubell, made a statement in a magazine article about how he was making more than the mafia. He then added, "Don't tell the IRS."
An IRS agent read this article and investigated Rubell.
Why hasn't this tape triggered an SEC investigation of Cramer?
He flat out states that you're not allowed to foment but you do it anyway because the SEC doesn't understand.
This is actually worse than what Rubell did, as Cramer thumbs his nose at the SEC.
Best post ever...ever... God save us.
Will be a regular feature? The tone is a bit too aggressive but market moving rumors and innuendo are always fascinating. Hope we get more "insider" info on ZH.
I wish ZH had a chat room I'd like to be able to chat with a lot of the commentors here through the trading day.
I say we form our own ZH trade syndicate and choose some real thinly traded piece of shit stock and all of us run up the hell out of it (I wonder if CMGI or XLA are still around) and we all max out our credit cards loading up on the dogshit and then sell when we get the order from Tyler. Of course if we lose our ass then we just write-off our credit card balance like everyone else.
This is my first post here guys so please bear with me.
I'd like to know what you all make of this:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/
I have been following this site's Thursday 4:30pm weekly postings religiously for over a year.
Take a look at Table 3 - M1 Currency - we are close to a record (seasonally adjusted) at 866.4 Billion and also close to a record (non-seasonally adjusted from Table 5) at 869.8 billion.
Couple of questions:
1. How much really does it say here that the currency in circulation is increasing? The FED "prints" money in other ways with purchasing their own bonds, etc. but is this still a key indicator?
2. If this page or statistic means a lot, might Goldman Sachs get their "insider" hands on these reports before the 4:30pm after market posting?
If you trade for a living then you care for being on the right side of a trade, you don't care about BEING right. That's for keyboard warriors.
Met a gentleman last week who is on his last dime. 6 figures in debt, needs a serious neck surgery, no insurance, ran out of unemployment, NOT a trader. He is skilled in business and dealing with people. No luck finding a job anywhere. And he is typical of the many who don't understand what has happened to this country and thought that following the rules and being a good person all of ones life, helping others, that he would be able to find dignity while getting older. He is in his mid-50's and at the end of his rope. He is just the type that could lose it and "go postal". What in the world are you people talking about that you can say with a straight face to these people and say to the effect, "It's your own f***ing fault."?????? Where do you people get off saying that kind of thing to these kind of good-hearted people???????
This is not just about losing some trading profits. This is about the fabric of America being torn into little pieces with nothing left of honesty and dignity to show for 230+ years of history. What are we to DO about this?
If you were on the right side of the move and didn't close your trade, you dont have any "trading profits."
On a day like today, after the close, I like to go into the bathroom near the bar at the Sherry Netherland Hotel and ask Jesse to explain it all. And do you know what he said today? "Anybody you know want to borrow my gun?"
No thanks, Jesse. One need not be an insider to understand the rules of this game. The PTB are wearing the rules on their sleeves. Take the scraps they give you, but don't get greedy. They are not going to announce when the music stops.
One thing has become increasingly clear, however: Nobody is going to make them stop. If Bernanke's little softball doubleheader this week did not tell you that, you weren't paying attention. Even Ron Paul has been neutered.
I bet it even amazes the PTB how weak and stupid the great unwashed masses are. Ten thousand dollars per person share of National Debt used to be a big deal. Now it's approaching $45,000 per person, not counting unfunded SS and Medicare.
And most of that new debt---yours and mine---went to make whole the fuckheads who did most of the damage, or to spendthrift moron fellow citizens, who could not put off until tomorrow all the shit they didn't need and couldn't afford today. And it's not going to stop, because we won't make them stop. QE2 will set sail this spring, bailing out "our friends" in the CRE sector. Let's give some love to RE billionaires! GS, JPM, MS et al, who operate under the moniker Primary Dealers, will get a heads up on all the additional CMBS' Ben is going to pick up at inflated prices on our behalf. The sun always shines in Wonderland.
The gods are laughing at us. We don't mind. We're too stupid and too weak. We'll beef and moan, but that's the extent of it. They know. This time next year the same articles will appear on ZH, the same comments will follow, the same outrage voiced.
And the gods will be laughing even harder than today.
"buy, buY, bUY, BUY!!!!"
Colt 6920 (M4) civilian version... valuable investment.
For "Happy Days" are here again as we think back to 1930 and the 2nd year in the single term of President Barry O-Hoover.
Barry O-Hoover saw 10,763 bank failures on his incompetent watch as he tried to hide insolvency from the public...
O-Hoover sat on his hands doing lap dog tricks for his owners on Fraud Street as major depression swept the nation...
O-Hoover became a ONE TERM CARTER as an outraged public voted his worthless Fraud Street shill ass out of office on a land slide.
Inauguration of Barry O-Hoover's replacement coincided with a week long bank holiday to clean up the carnage that Barry O-Hoover's Too Stupid To Fail TSTF Presidency left the banks in.
I smell history repeat in the making. Barack O-Bungler and his economic idiots have got to go...
Except this time...Keep the Roosevelt... we'll take the Paul.
Oh baloney. Enough hysterics. So, the S&P went up 1.6% in a day, supposedly on a rumor which I personally must have missed. It doesn't mean diddly, certainly not the aforementioned $100 billion in market capitalization. I can just picture someone standing at the end of the day, saying "Thank God, we got the $100 billion. Now we can put Plan B into action. Call Agent Zelta." Next day, market drops a bitty and there is no extra $100 billion to play with and the talking heads, who know nothing will be citing consumer confidence figures, or the price of gold, or Greek savings rates, or some other meaningless statistic. Whatever their teleprompter tells them. Personally, I think all hell will break loose as soon as curling is over.
We are seeing an "end of days" market where there are only sharks. After killing off 99% of the daytraders the squid/algos will start eating each other. The last survivor will eat himself. This is the day we lose 3000 points in 3 minutes, they close down the exchange and say it was all a computer glitch. And for the first time they won't be lieing. But no one will believe them.
This will get us to fair value.
Why is it whenever we rally, it MUST be due to manipulation or the PPT or something. If we fall, it's the market being rational. I see a pattern here on lots of websites. Maybe, everyone is too bearish, and gets short, and gets squeezed. Then everyone complains "its not fair, the market should go down, it's the end of the world, right" .
Trading isn't about being right, it's about making money.
Did the locals cover on the GS paper? Did they get long too? Did they squeeze the rest of the shorts? Give us some REAL pit action to think about
A large majority of the armchair geniuses here don't trade for a living. They don't need to make money, they just want to be right. For them, it's more important to fight Goldman Sachs and Bernanke than to extract profits out of the market. Good luck to the tinfoil hats.
I know what you mean. Why, just the other day me and the wifey looked into the checking account and she said, "Honey, we've got an extra $9 billion here we don't need right now. Why don't you buy a ton of S&P's at market."
I think most people behave similarly, especially after the 50th piece of bad news in the last two weeks and a 60% rally.
Dude, 0% interest rate. The Bubble-Machine TM is working 24/7, enjoy it while it lasts. I know it´s more fun trying to "understand" every movement the market makes, but I´ve been around for long enough to conclude that´s a fool's game.
Let's make this very very simple....
What are you going to do about it....?
At the end of the day....GS and their ilk have much bigger legal largesse than you.....and they willl ride the fine line for all it is worth....
THIS is their REAL EDGE....
LEGAL LARGESSE....
And think about this....
Do you really think ...that any GS employee really wants to be in a govt. office ? Why do you think they are there ....?
One reason.....LEGAL LARGESSE
Market manipulation for sure. We have seen this movement many times. And Rumors are a fact of life in the market.
As for GS, their weekly chart is showing the price sitting just above its 50 and 200 EMAs. If the price broke below those support levels, the market could really take a nose dive in a big way. I think its quite possible we see another major collapse of the market within a short time. GS back to 100 unless they can keep the rumors and pumping and dumping working better then they did yesterday. JMOP
hola
There's a war going on, the real one, not the one against 'terror', not fought with bullets and bombs and troop movements but with trades and deals and movements of capital. And if you aren't on buffet's team ("There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.") you got a sucking chest wound and things ain't looking too good. Greece is down and will be stripped clean soon...who's next?
It is worthwhile to note that three months ago, the rumors and market-makers were using these tactics to take the market to new highs. Now they are using the same techniques to keep the market from falling off those highs... short is beginning to look very attractive. Volatility is a part of trend shifts. Good luck everyone. --Boris
Markets don't move because of news and anyone who trades on the basis of news deserves to be parted from their money.
Maybe Markets don't move based news but they do move based on INSIDE INFORMATION, which will maybe one day become news.
Well if your doctor uses QALY, Outcome based research, or some other bunk statistical model to determine whether or not it is 'cost effective'.
They may not YET, but Obama he's a changing things haven't you heard....and not the way the left or right or anywhere in between want.
Don't you know a monkey could be a doctor when all you need to do is see if the statistical model says yes/no to the necessity of a particular treatment based on its costs and how many years of life you had left, how many years of life you've been invested in, etc, etc.
This will enable them the time to see an additional 30 percent of patients, and tell them the same thing.
But doctors guessing on your treatments, that's closer than you may think. Makes sense though that it'd be like the stock market, they're both using the same bunk metrics.
Also of course when it comes to the jobs claims they spin it as less bad, or an improvement. Haven't you heard the great news? The recession (not depression) is over, green shoots are here. Happy days are here again!
As previously noted, the recent buying support has been with us for a while and resulted in this choppy counter trend rally.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
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