The Run On Greece Is Here: Investors Pull Out €10 Billion From The Troubled Country; Crisis Escalation Approaches

Tyler Durden's picture

Remember the proverbial run on the bank? Well, that was the norm (or rather the outlier) before governments decided to backstop entire financial industries  residing within their territory. As a result, the post-Lehman version of "the bank run" will henceforth be referred to as "the country run" and for an example of one in practice, look no further than Greece. The Guardian reports that investors have pulled a stunning €8-10 billion since the Greek crisis commenced in earnest last November. If true, this is the beginning of the end for the troubled EMU-member country.

"In the last four to six weeks a lot of money has been moved abroad;
I've heard extraordinary figures
," analyst, Kostas Panagopoulos said.

"People
are moving funds either because they don't trust our banking system,
want to avoid what they fear will be taxes on deposits or are simply
anxious about the future of our economy."

What is ironic is the previously discussed pervasive tax fraud in the country where very few resident actually declare their true income. As a result the implication of these sudden withdrawals on the country banking system is likely exponentially magnified:

While a fifth of the population lives beneath the poverty line, some
20% of Greeks are believed to earn more than €100,000 annually – even
if, according to income tax records, 90% declare salaries of less than
€30,000 a year.

"Greece has a lot of rich people who are not
being taxed properly because there is so much tax evasion," finance
minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou, told the Observer. "If you
look at the actual numbers, you will see that the number of people
declaring over €100,000 a year is roughly 15,000," he said. "I don't
think that there is anyone in this country who believes there are only
15,000 Greeks earning more than €100,000 a year."

And as if the Greek population needed any more reasons to deteset the current economic fiasco, and to draw even more distinct lines of social separation:

The growing flight of funds from Greece has whipped up much resentment
among the public. "It's revolting," said one popular radio chat-show
host last week. "After pillaging the country, they flee with their
ill-gotten gains at the very mention of the word tax."

If you will recall a mere 15 months back, the one factor that truuly excerbated the pre and post-Lehman fiasco, both domestically and globally, was investors' loss of conifdence in the system: first in the deposit custodians and then in money markets themselves. As the financial system is never, by definition, prepared for massive fund flows in the outward bound direction, this is the greatest nightmare of any regulator or any central bank. If indeed the money rush out of Greece has commenced, then it is too late to save the country, no matter what Papandreou or Almunia will say: the only voice that matters is that of the depositor, and what is being said is the polar opposite of the claims of those who continue lying and telling us that everything is fine.

Putting the €10 billion number in perspective: Greece is facing roughly €8 billion in near-term maturities in April and May each. This is Greece, not America, and €10 billion is still a massive number. The latest miraculous Greek bond issue, which was supposed to sound the "all clear" call, was for €8 billion. Investors in that particular GGB are already underwater.

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moneymutt's picture

most interesting weekend since mid-Sept 2008?

Anonymous's picture

a laughably simplistic analysis of the current situation. I dare you to stay short, you bunch of doomsaying morons. LOL the next 15 days will be a riot watching the shorts run for cover.

geminiRX's picture

Ben, is that you?

Rusty Shorts's picture

It is a REDACTED that REDACTED your REDACTED. Further, this insidious REDACTED will REDACTED into your REDACTED in such a way that it will quickly REDACTED your REDACTED.

I hope that clears things up.

Anonymous's picture

a laughably simplistic analysis of the current situation. I dare you to stay short, you bunch of doomsaying morons. LOL the next 15 days will be a riot watching the shorts run for cover.

Monday1929's picture

The bursting of the largest credit bubble in history actually is pretty simple. It is just the type of fundamental event that most investors believe move markets. In this case, they are right, except now they are all contrarians.

Enjoy the Crash. Next week, next month, even next year.

moneymutt's picture

I'm a simple dog, I admit it, and have no financial/trading background, so I'm totally ignorant of the ways of the financial world...and I buy that Greece may not be the trigger.

...but I did get all money out of the market (not much, but all I got, in Sept 2007 (a tich early), made money shorting, and put 401k back in equities in late March 09, got out in Nov, but lost a little money shorting banks..so my general, simplistic instincts have done me okay...

are you saying there will be a bounce or that everything will rally from here on out for the next year and on? that, in my simple mind, is not likely...

Anonymous's picture

Wow--you're some timer. Where do we go from here, hotshot

moneymutt's picture

no just work in construction, saw housing bubble coming, waited what I thought too long to get out, then figured I didn't have tons to lose in march when things got low, didn't get out as early in fall as I thought I should... you should ask me not when I think I should do something but when I actually do something...besides, don't you have to have more than thousands on the line to be a hotshot?

geminiRX's picture

I think you made a smart decision. Not losing money is always smart. Current market conditions are so precariously catastrophic - one event could make the whole damn thing go. Timmy and Ben can't keep plugging holes in the dam forever.  Only when this market corrects, will I have the balls to go back in. There's no way I will buy into companies with the P/E multiples that they currently carry. Don't feel bad, I lost some money trying to short banks too:) It is good that your reading zerohedge, your financial background is already leaps ahead of many sheeple.

jeff montanye's picture

short what, the euro?  please, all, be specific.

Hammer59's picture

 

Bank run???

Have'nt seen one since '29

Oopps.....

mouser98's picture

it seems that bank runs work backwards now

RoastingBankers's picture

take the market down!

Gromit's picture

One drawback of EU membership is that traditional defense mechanisms, such as Exchange Controls restricting outflows of capital are no longer available. The US does not have this problem.  

Anonymous's picture

US restricting outflows would cause a bigger problem...

knukles's picture

Are there any other drawbacks?

cougar_w's picture

Cannot print their way out of the hole they are in.

That one is lethal.

Anonymous's picture

Print more IOU's, California style!

vainamoinen's picture

Germany will save them, right? - - - Right? - - - I mean they've got to - right? Otherwise things will be a mess, right?

They said on Bloomberg everything was OK, right?

Everything is going to be OK, isn't it?

Isn't it?

Isn't it? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ???

Anonymous's picture

Save them with what? Nations are like a bunch of stooges running around with credit cards pledging portions of their limit to "rescue" companies and countries. Eventually, the credit card maxes out. It's going to get ugly. Brass, lead and food are going to be valuable commodities in the New World Disorder.

Anonymous's picture

Of course, how can a country survive with unbalanced car wheels...

knukles's picture

Use unbalanced politicians instead?

Anonymous's picture

Traditionally lead was the bullet component of the cartridge. However, after the enviro freaks got a hold of it, bullets are now composed of other metals. However, "lead" is used to connotate the "preparation for the confrontation".

Mad Max's picture

Quite inaccurate.  The overwhelming majority (99.9%?) of bullets made and used in the West still use lead cores.  There are a tiny handful of bullets available that are non-lead, either for target use at indoor ranges or for hunting in California, but they are a miniscule part of either civilian or military markets.  So yes, lead still rules.

In the former com-bloc steel cored bullets are somewhat more common, purely for cost reasons (neither environmental nor, as sometimes mistakenly claimed, armor piercing reasons).  These are quite uncommon in the US.

Translational Lift's picture

Brass & lead as in FMJ.....  ;>)

Anonymous's picture

I'd recommend hollow points. Greater stopping effectiveness.

Anonymous's picture

I'd recommend hollow points. Better stopping power....

Anonymous's picture

I find that .308 hollow points are a tad overkill for turkey.

How about you?

-MB

Lou629's picture

#1398 & 1409:

Also inaccurate, in that they frequently fragment on impact, doing less damage to the target.  The hollow point has also been known to get filled with material as they pass thru clothing, rendering the expansion idea worthless. 

Check www.neardeathexperiments.com on this and more. 

Mad Max's picture

I mostly use .600 and .700 flat nose solids.

Mad Max's picture

I figured it was as credible and intelligent as 99% of the other gun "info" posted here.

WHAT?  You don't use a .700 Tyrannosaur for squirrels and coyotes?  =)

Lou629's picture

oic, so then i presume you're with the brady bunch then?  Since you feel so strongly about it, you might want to put a sign on your lawn that says: "i don't think guns are credible or intelligent and you won't find any in THIS house"

....be sure to let the rest of us know how well that works out for you when the shit really hits the fan with the economy. 

Mad Max's picture

I've probably been a member of the NRA longer than you have.  You completely misinterpret my point, which is that so much of the gun comments here are worthy of teenagers and bad (bad...) gun shops, I thought I would add my own bad advice.

Lou629's picture

Gotcha'.  Sorry for confusion.  Not always easy to know the intent when dealing with the written word and not spoken.  Glad to know there are other pro-2A members on this site. 

Hephasteus's picture

Why do I use 600 nitro express? Because well they don't make a 700 nitro express.

Hephasteus's picture

LOL. That's actually an old joke. Some elephant hunter got asked why he used the 600 h&h express and he said because they don't make a 700 h&h express. I guess they finally listened to him 30 years later. LOL

Anonymous's picture

Brass + Lead = BULLETS

Anonymous's picture

...wrapped in copper, backed by gunpowder.

jeff montanye's picture

especially without gunpowder.  i'm also ... brass?

Gold...Bitches's picture

gunpowder.  with that you can get the rest.

Brak82's picture

our fiscal situation is too much damaged to help STUPIDs and PIIGS... Everone just grab your towel and DON'T PANIC!

Missing_Link's picture

Run away!  The GIIPSIEs are coming!

Mad Max's picture

Beware the Vogon constructor fleets!  (Beware moreso of their poetry.)