Russ Certo's Macro Thoughts On Today's Global Coordinated Crude "Rate Cut" And Other "Market Schizophrenia"

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Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:54 | 1396489 ItFarmer
Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:06 | 1396528 So Close
So Close's picture

That is fucking amazing.  

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator X.0  Anyone?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:14 | 1396586 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Nice stick save today in the U.S. that’s creating what’s looking like a medium term bottom.

Or is it?

Check out the slow stochastic rally in the NDX for example. Almost an 11 session rally in the slow stochastic and price is still below where it started. Same thing on the SPX, and in the case of the SPX, the same also on the RSI.

Simply working off oversold? Perhaps.

This dip is very suspect in my opinion. And with what we’re seeing in overnight rates, etc., I should probably say EXTREMELY SUSPECT.


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:51 | 1396491 max2205
max2205's picture

Lets face it Obamaramma will never get reelected with gas at this level...he through "the boys" need to crush oil and gas until 10/12

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:56 | 1396501 AladdinSaneGirl
AladdinSaneGirl's picture

That is over a year away! However Steven Chu is a genius and must have some idea of what he's doing. In the meantime, my North Sea oil stocks may suffer since producer can't afford to pump oil out of the ground if it falls below $100. Aarghh. 

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:01 | 1396523 Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

Steve Chu is a stupid piece of shit.  He and Bernanke have the wisdom of a lemming.  Ivory tower group think.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 22:33 | 1397343 iNull
iNull's picture

He is a hands on laser physicist--hardly stupid. He is however an upholder of the status quo and will do as many prop jobs as required to keep the system from collapsing. Which he knows is coming.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:08 | 1396530 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Wait. I thought you could dig/pump/resurrect anything out of the ground for less than $5 per unit? At least that's what MethMan says.

Speaking of screaming addictions, where has that pestilence gotten too lately?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:13 | 1396583 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

He's crouching right behind you, Cog, and he's holding an ice axe.


I'd suggest you deftly extract the Glock 26 from your pocket and execute a smooth 180 right about now.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 22:24 | 1397334 iNull
iNull's picture

Which is why we're driling down a mile undersea then another mile below the sea floor. Because oil is so cheap and easy to get. Heck what's the fuss? Trillions of tons of shale with about 1/4 the BTUs of cow shit. We can just convert that. Or let the Russians show us how it's done with abiotic oil. I heard it on Coast 2 Coast and the Jeff Rense shows so it must be true.

Fri, 06/24/2011 - 01:27 | 1397668 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

you think?   i thought it was russian arctic floating nuclear stations:

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:10 | 1396551 knukles
knukles's picture

"Steven Chu is a genius"

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:58 | 1396495 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Instead of purchasing 3 Billion in bonds, how about releasing 3 Billion in oil into the market?  New revenue sorce?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:08 | 1396537 zKeyserSoze
zKeyserSoze's picture

u got it. this is what bernanke meant by "doing other things" instead of QE

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:57 | 1396505 chrisd
chrisd's picture

We haven't heard from TrimTabs in a while Tyler

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:58 | 1396509 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Transocean and BP already did that?

Ooops...I meant released it into the ocean...different market.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:58 | 1396515 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Wasn't the market down before the oil announcements? And if the government is down to using our finite SPR supply to stimulate the economy, wouldn't that tell you the government is grasping at straws.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:52 | 1396697 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

It accelerated to the downside after the event, silver closed down sharply in spite of the equity rally. Back to "On any Credit Event laden Sunday"?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:00 | 1396519 Hondo
Hondo's picture

I think he's smoking crack.......consumers aren't going to be buy more goods because oil prices dropped today......that is the kind of insane thinking that got us in this mess.....this is wall street thinking not the consumer.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:10 | 1396546 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, he obviously thinks there is still a market (or has to pretend to in order to keep his job). So he's either smoking crack, or dealing it.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 18:40 | 1396833 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Not only that, but much of what he wrote is incomprehensible, terrible sentence structure, as if English was his third language, or he went to public schools and literally can't put sentences together.

Fri, 06/24/2011 - 01:33 | 1397671 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

went to public schools?  that's raw.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:04 | 1396520 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I have a theory: Every time SPX hits the 200DMA, it triggers an action alert to the department of random bullshit to release some market moving news...ANY news will do as long as it moves the market up...they'll deal with the truthiness of it later.

that's my theory and I'm sticking to it.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:02 | 1396526 zKeyserSoze
zKeyserSoze's picture

good point, oil mark down used to sell TIPS. scary, i'm short overnite china, emerging mkts...but should pop profits next month. also, jim grant notes a guy wrote to FT " i figured out what QE is, but now i dont know what money is." see jim grant interview at 10 min into 13 min interview   -posted on zerohedge before

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:02 | 1396527 There is No Spoon
There is No Spoon's picture

I don't know why he's saying "I view today’s news as a significant positive for equities" - right now equities are correlated almost perfectly with the euro. Once the Greece news came out, the euro spiked and stocks went with it. Assuming that equities were down because they were being shorted as a hedge to long oil positions is a stretch.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:06 | 1396549 zKeyserSoze
zKeyserSoze's picture

hope ur not long euro

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:15 | 1396574 There is No Spoon
There is No Spoon's picture

not at all - actually long dollar for a trade because I think the euro will win the race to the bottom..

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:07 | 1396556 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I agree. This news about the 60 million barrels (less than one days supply as Mike Kreiger pointed out) is utter nonsense and meaningless. To believe this is significant requires the same kind of mind that would conclude that if we give everyone in America one free tank of gas for their car, they will take that savings, get in that car and run out and buy a new home. It's preposterous.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:42 | 1397263 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture


Fri, 06/24/2011 - 00:36 | 1397562 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

yup. 60 aint squat

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:07 | 1396533 web bot
web bot's picture

You've got an academic running the country... along with the bankers.

I just listened to some clowns on cnbc talking about how good things are... kicking the can down the road. These people are so low in their ethics... The problems can't be solved unless there is a reset... and I think it's coming.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:13 | 1396565 zKeyserSoze
zKeyserSoze's picture

ive heard kicking the can down the road 1000 times this week. it means continous bailouts until Armegeddon. like raising the debt "ceiling." it cant be a ceiling if its raised.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:10 | 1396567 zKeyserSoze
zKeyserSoze's picture

ive heard kicking the can down the road 1000 times this week. it means continous bailouts until Armegeddon. like raising the debt "ceiling." it cant be a ceiling if its raised.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:04 | 1396534 Atch Logan
Atch Logan's picture

Listen to this guy; he knows what he is talking about.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:08 | 1396535 monmick
monmick's picture

"78 dollars to yen"

Wow! I don't remember thoses days! Neither does he, obviously...


Fri, 06/24/2011 - 01:41 | 1397680 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

nice catch.  i went right through that as 78 yen to the dollar.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:04 | 1396536 Eagle Keeper
Eagle Keeper's picture

The gov is now going to use SPR as more gov debt except they won't be able to just print more of the stuff. A lame attempt at quieting the masses....

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:06 | 1396550 oogs66
oogs66's picture

I can see that it is a statement that the government will pull out all the tricks to support equities. That is a powerful statement but is this really a good idea?

Energy stocks have been strong. Earnings good. I assume this area, if any, has been providing some high paying jobs. Now you hurt it and worse than just hurting it, add an element of uncertainty. Drilling plans cannot look so good with a government willing to do something like this? Energy self sufficiency and alternative energy just took a kick in the teeth. Hey will need even more subsidies. Beware these unintended consequences

What if high oil prices weren't the reason for the soft patch? If we keep getting weak data that scapegoat goes away.

What if oil prices drive back up? Another example of central planning not being able to work?

I get the message that they are trying to send but I question how well it will work and how desperate they are

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:48 | 1397139 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I am glad I read this article because I was wondering how a $4 drop in oil drives down gold and silver. I suppose if we released a million bushels of corn into the market it would have the same effect?

The problem I see is that this is highly temporary. The Obama administration is slowly but surely strangling our domestic oil supply (even while funding the Brazilians) and that trend should overwhelm this temporary boost in supply. Plus, someone correct me if I am wrong, but in theory at least the U.S. government will have to replace those 30mil barrels eventually. So they will wade back into the market and drive the price up?

It's a damn stupid shell game full of bullshit smoke and mirrors temporary fixes. They have not fixed or changed anything for the long term. If I had more cash I'd pile up more metals and even energy options.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:10 | 1397189 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

It's a damn stupid shell game full of bullshit smoke and mirrors temporary fixes.

It won't take the price down at the pump.

It will provide more profit for the oil companies.

Bonus time for the Obama Clan again.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:09 | 1396560 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the bernank is a one trick pony and that trick sucks ass.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:13 | 1396566 Atch Logan
Atch Logan's picture

The price of oil by the government is being knocked down because there is no oil, duh!  This guy is saying that if there is no oil, then the equities of oil stocks (which hunt/produce oil) will go up.

What the government is doing is corrupt, phony. Why would anyone doubt that?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:18 | 1396584 sschu
sschu's picture

However, lower oil price should be a boon to consumption and a boon to equities.

Oil needs to be significantly below $80/b for months before the effects on the consumer can be felt in the general economy.  At least they realize this fact, but they just might be too late. 

The answer is not release of strat oil reserve or other games, the answer is more supply.  How does forcing the price of oil down correlate with the financing of the deficit?  How/where will Bennie get the FRNs to cover the $1.6T+ we need to borrow over the next 12 months?  These are the questions that need answers. 

They must have some inside info that the economy has taken a sharp downturn, couple this with the Greece/Europe problems and they are trying to avert another 2008 scenario.

Weren't we supposed to be in recovery by now?


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:17 | 1396592 Rainman
Rainman's picture

When all is said and done, it's still about a real estate depression.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:18 | 1396593 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

When will the Strategic Silver Reserve be released to refill the Comex?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:26 | 1396603 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Great afternoon humor Tyler. And all that other globally coordinated jaz too.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:51 | 1396709 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Equities/risk assets need to be lower i.e. pain needs to be felt before QE can be greenlighted.  Chairsatan opines the limits of monetary stimulus, but deep down inside realizes that the uncrontrollable debt far exceeds any priority and thus bonds usually trump all other assets-- maybe the centrally planned regime in charge (aka white house) will soon realize that deflation is actually better for the peasantry esp around election time when voters will be looking at their dwindling pockets.  Many forces at work-- all self motivated and all only benefit a small group-- revolution will only bring real change not empty promises and gimmicky price controls.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:57 | 1396725 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

This guy doesn't use the facts. This oil release was a stick save after the markets dropped so much over night. The market was way down on the open and heading lower. Then the news came from the IEA and the DOE shortly after 10:00. Equities immediately sold off as oil longs who had been torched overnight horded cash thinking that things were going to get even worse. Smart oil players quickly realized this was a scam, the amount that was realeased was a day's spillage practically. Oil hardly moved. Then the MSM started filling heads with hopium on lower gasoline costs, boom off we went with retailers leading the way. Then that trick started to flag in the afternoon. News that Greece was no longer a democracy and that G Pap was the new dictator and could decree  without his Parliament's consent "Game On" was next to hit the wire. Up up and away from there.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:54 | 1397144 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I would guess it was down early based on the prediction of what was going to happen today.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:32 | 1397242 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

If by "it" you mean the equity market, then I would reply why did those in the know drive the market in the opposite direction of where they wanted it go? If you meant the oil market, then yes insiders were taking advantage. Splendid though how in the morning when the pros were at work they saw through the game and leveled things off. Thanks for the reply. 

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