Russell Napier: The Bear Market Bottom Will Be S&P 400
It is no secret that CLSA's Russell Napier has not been a fan of QE2. As he pointed out in his recent prominent note, "whether equities will fall further depends on how flexible and successful the Fed’s next monetary package will be. Given the risk, investors are better off watching from the sidelines." He further explained: "A risk to reflation would send equities sharply lower. The failure of QEII will undermine investor faith in a monetary solution. With equities near bubble valuations, based on cyclically adjusted PE, a failure to reflate risks major downside. The Fed will try again with a new package, but investors would do best by waiting to see how it plays out." Since as of now we still don't know when and if there even will be a package, here is Napier once again, interviewed by the FT's Long View, presenting his updated views on the economy. His outlook, which we agree with entirely, is that first we will see another major deflationary shock, following which the Fed, already boxed in a corner, will have two choices: let major financial institutions fail, or proceed to monetize outright. Regardless of which outcome is picked, Napier's target for the S&P, which just happens to coincide with that of Albert Edwards, is not pleasant for the bulls: 400 (or somewhere in that vicinity). And that will be the true generational buying bottom.
(Full clip after the jump, with the key part starting 7:30 in)
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