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Rydex Nasdaq 100 Bull/Bear Ratio At Highest Since Dot Com Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And for another confirmation that the Nasdaq is now at the same extreme "irrational exuberance" levels last seen during the dot com crash, we read courtesy of sentimenttrader.com that the Rydex Nasdaq 100 bull/bear ratio is now the highest it has been since just before the dot com crash. "Traders in the Rydex mutual fund family have poured into the Nasdaq 100 long fund at the expense of the inverse fund on the same index.  These traders now have 34 times more money invested in the long fund vs. the inverse fund, which is the highest ratio since the bubble days of 2000 and early 2001." And what is scarier, is that unlike during the dot com, investors are using leveraged methods to express their exuberance: "The Bull / Bear Ratio for the leveraged funds isn't quite as extreme...but it's close (on a relative basis)."

And some more observations on irrational exuberance v2

Taking a cue from the Nasdaq 100 chart to the left, this one shows a composite Bull / Bear Ratio for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA (we don't have this chart on the site yet).  The ratio neared 3.0 on Thursday, meaning there's almost 3 times more assets in the long index funds than the inverse index funds.  Since 2004, only two other times approached this level (late February 2004 and November/December 2004).  Other times the ratio approached this level, stocks backed off in the month(s) ahead.

Hopefully some of this generation's traders recall what happened when optimism, and outright stupidity, reached such extreme levels back in 2001.

 

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Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:35 | 795730 Gaston
Gaston's picture

Rally on!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:06 | 795881 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

yeah, compaing apples to apples to 2000-2001 it looks like we have an easy 2000 NAZ points to the upside before we have to worry

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:14 | 796415 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I don't think you get it.  100% bullish sentiment means that valuations are already WAYYY too high.

Our bubble reflation will not take us back to the highs before it pops.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:06 | 795904 flacon
Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:13 | 796183 VegasBD
VegasBD's picture

Work at a post production house, were doing some Yahoo spots right now. Some coincide with the Tron movie launch. Watching these spots over and over remind me of the .com days. Irony i suppose.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:28 | 796254 kengland
kengland's picture

Makes a lot of sense in light of the 32 week of net outflows. Which is it? Feast of famine? If you can't aggregate it all together and forumulate something meaningful, why bother going from day to day puting up contradictory data

 

Yawnnn

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:57 | 797810 pomogranate
pomogranate's picture

yeah, 32 week outflows, retail not participating  ... but household worth up because of asset investments and everyone's bullish ...

Nothing more than fodder for the space monkeys.  Who cares about a coherent thesis?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:17 | 796430 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

Holy shit FAZ is sub 10. All time high was 1400 I think. Is this too good to pass up. Risk on!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:23 | 796469 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Go fer it!

Good luck with the newly empowered SEC playing short trading suspension games...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:39 | 795740 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Am I the only one taking joy in watching AAPL have a tough time with $320? lol

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:39 | 795757 Gaston
Gaston's picture

Apples market Cap, will soon Rival Exxon Mobil !!!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:27 | 797034 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Does this mean iPads are now equally important as oil?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:01 | 795864 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Once it breaks this resistance, it'll be at $350 in a heartbeat. Very similar to the move before last earnings when it was stuck around $250 forever, then BOOM, flew up to $300.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:18 | 795955 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Sold to you!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:24 | 795985 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Today's AAPL movement is all pinned to 320 weekly options. Next week is the big push higher.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:18 | 796205 dnarby
dnarby's picture

Sold to you... On margin!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:39 | 796050 shushup
shushup's picture

I think AAPL is pausing because the NDX is about 30 points from it's 07 high. Just one good trading day for the NDX. Maybe there will be(God, I mean Fed Forbid) a pull back at this level.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:37 | 795745 Deep
Deep's picture

should be good for about another 50-100 SP points

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:37 | 795747 Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

Gotz to have hope. Dow 36000 here we come

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:37 | 795748 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Robo is about to get bankrupted AGAIN.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:38 | 795753 themosmitsos
themosmitsos's picture

Get your Nasdaq 10,000 hats out!

Idiots...Probably going up tho, I'm serious. QEnasdaq next

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:39 | 795756 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

This time it's different! We have a robust economy, low unemployment, cheap energy, good wages....

Umm.. that was ten years ago. Nevermind

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:48 | 795804 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

The internet's gonna be huge! I have a cousin who works for an IT company and he has all his money invested in tech.

Radio is gonna be Huge!

Railroads are gonna be Huge!

Canals are gonna be Huge!

Tulips are gonna be Huge!

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:12 | 795930 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Don't forget Airlines, they are going to print money!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:20 | 795969 ATG
ATG's picture

or silver and gold for the same reason...;

How about fixing your captchas that demand 4 character answers limited to 3!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:24 | 796231 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

+1 LOL

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:49 | 795812 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

No, it wasn't robust, just the ponzi-ness hadn't reached it's full potential. 

Good wages? No.  Better than NOW,  yes.  Good, HELL NO.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:39 | 795759 cxl9
cxl9's picture

During the dot.com mania, speculators were still leveraging. I personally knew people who were taking out HELOCs to invest in Cisco, Lucent, Yahoo, Webvan shares. Hell, if I had had any home equity back then I probably would have done the same. Older and wiser now.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:12 | 795933 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

I'm contemplating taking out a HELOC to invest in precious metals.  So shiny...my preciousssssss....

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:20 | 795972 ATG
ATG's picture

Good luck with that trade

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:40 | 795762 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

We should be bullish - at least near term. Consumer confidence is skying higher so they will continue their spending ways. Claims have been dropping pretty much weekly now but certainly in a solid trend. Trade deficit was great news. All the manufacturing indices have been strong.

And last but not least, Ben will continue pumping the system. Until that stops, how can you not be bullish??

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:42 | 795771 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Because it's numbers based on government lies and fakery.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:43 | 795780 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

That's right, I almost forgot the mantra, if it's good news, it's a "lie/fraud/manipulation", if it's a bad number it's gospel. Thanks for reminding me.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:46 | 795798 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

No, it's a case of whether you trust your government (proven liars and murderers) or your own eyes and judgement. It's a simple choice.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:49 | 796606 TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

No one is sure Harry has either...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:46 | 795799 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry going by the phone poll.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:14 | 795943 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Lol... does it matter anyway? The crash(es) was a "once in a lifetime" event(s)! Rally in perpetuity!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:22 | 795976 ATG
ATG's picture

30,000 Dow by New Year's?;

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:03 | 795884 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Harry,

First, the sentiment indicator is a contrary one. Are you aware of this?

Second, Jobless claims are still very high taken an average.  Granted, it's not 700k but it is still WELL above comfortable and employment increasing levels.

Both points are hardly a reason to be bullish on stocks other than the care free blind herd mentality that is currently driving stocks up..

Get a clue..

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:13 | 795938 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

No Harry, more like "the data is bad" which means more easing which is good for equities OR "the data is good" which means recovery is taking hold which is good for equities.  Risk has been thrown out the window and soon may even be removed from finance textbooks at this rate.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:24 | 796233 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Damn, I wasted a complete semester in college on that "Risk Management in Financial Institutions" class.  I should have just taken the "How to profit from moral hazard" class online for $19.99

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:48 | 795809 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry ya sidewindin craker croaker! 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:44 | 795789 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Are you serious?

Claims are ar recession levels on average what the peak of the last recession. U3 got worse!

Do you interact with people? They aren't buying anything big, no houses, worried about jobs. Gas and food are very pricey.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:55 | 795838 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Yes, my company "interacts with people" seven days a week. Consumer discretionary and our best Fall and Holiday Season in our 9 year history. I see it everyday in strong sales. 

How about you? Where do you "interact"? Are you selling consumer goods??

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:59 | 795855 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry sells black velvet paintings of Elvis and bullfighters at abandoned 7-11 parking lots...he sees the public quite a bit.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:04 | 795895 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

+100

And the rest of the velvet he uses to line coffins for the homeless which is his main business

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:19 | 795966 tickhound
tickhound's picture

You guys have it wrong... he's selling floor safes and home security systems.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:24 | 796232 dnarby
dnarby's picture

One thing for sure...  For someone who's business is booming, he sure spends a lot of time trolling on ZH. XD

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:42 | 796061 Rick64
Rick64's picture

 LOL

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:10 | 796171 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

HEY - you owe me an ounce of silver

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:02 | 795873 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

But are your quantities sold at their 9 year peak, or are you only going by dollars?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:06 | 795903 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Quantity. We've added dozens of new retail outlets across the country this Fall and just signed an international licensing agreement which will quadruple the amount of product sold by Q2 2011. 

And we're not the only one growing like this. Last week I talked with our suppliers, manufacturers, retailers, etc. and all down the chain they were excited about the turnaround. 

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 16:25 | 795922 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

(d)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:15 | 795941 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Really Harry so what is the NAME of this retail outlet which are adding by the dozens all over the place?

Add the name so your 'facts' can be verified, or its all BS.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:29 | 796003 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Harry is a *professional* troll.

Most likely a college drop-out that couldn't find work and is posting from his Mom's basement on Ben's dime...

Any Webnews/forum page that threatens the prep skool establishment is full of them.

Agent provocateurs are easy to spot:

A>  Claim to be wildly successful in private business (though they'll never tell you the name of their cash cow).

B>  Usually hangin' out on the forums 9-5, like a job.

C>  Support whatever rhetoric is being spewed from the MSM on behalf of the Fraud St./District of Criminals Establishment.

Good moderation is required to weed-out these parasites, otherwise they usually end up overtaking the site...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:31 | 796269 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

+1 Do they get paid? Or is it some psycological need?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:31 | 797043 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Both?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:30 | 796015 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry can you hire me since your retail outlets are going so great guns and rolling in profits? Email me whenever, davids1113@comcast.net THANKS I'll be waiting!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:29 | 796260 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

It's Walmart, Harry is an associate for Walmart.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:05 | 795898 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Harry is running an experiment on permabears and has multiple avatars. He is not a serious poster. He's goading us all.

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 16:24 | 795913 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

(d)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:28 | 796000 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Traderjoe where is Harrys artice going to be printed, New England Journal of Wankers?

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 16:24 | 795907 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

(d)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:20 | 795970 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Harry, are you hiring?

Just got laid off from a mid-tier steel company last week; of till at least Feb. Rumors of bankruptcy. PM me at your leisure. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:30 | 796013 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

If you're serious, we are going to be adding positions after the holidays to gear up for the international business. If you are near the Twin Cities and truly interested, I can forward an email address to you to send your resume.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:33 | 796019 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Only near the Twin Cities? I thought you just said youre opening new retail outlets by the score all across the fruited plains?

Anyway whats the name of the retail outlets? Thaaaaanks.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:39 | 796047 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry Im waiting for an email...whats wrong?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:45 | 796074 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

This is BS Harry...all this talk and you wont even send an email. I deem you chock full o bullshit.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:48 | 796083 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Sure, what's your email?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:57 | 796129 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Duh? I wrote it above.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:23 | 796227 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Sent.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:14 | 796154 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What the hell is this Harry? Zero information at all.

 

 

Hello, We will be hiring at our Twin Cities facility located in Minneapolis at the end of Q1 2011. Right now we anticipate 8-12 new full time positions. If you are serious, I can give you a more detailed description of the jobs available. When I refer to adding "dozens of retail outlets", they are distributors who own their outlets. We sell to them. We've added retailers in Las Vegas, Seattle, Chicago and New York this Fall in addition to the current retailers. That impacts distribution and manufacturing on my end, hence the move to hire in Q1/Q2. HW  

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:27 | 796248 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ok Harry so now what am I supposed to do, pack up and move to the Twin Cities based upon this email which says nothing?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:35 | 796289 Rick64
Rick64's picture

 Lol. Just look for the booming retailer.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:58 | 796133 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

You said once you lived near Seattle. Hard to keep track of the lies isn't it?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:00 | 796140 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Seattle...Twin Cities....BAH whats the difference!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:51 | 796340 Barb Dwire
Barb Dwire's picture

He means Seattle/Tacoma...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:52 | 795825 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

because the market does not trade on real world events, its simply a casino that the controlling operators can move to whatever arbitrary number they like.

Don't be so naive.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:59 | 795857 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Seriously harry - when does your study on permabears end? You never answer me. How do you chose which avatar to post under?

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 16:23 | 795866 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

(d)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:02 | 795871 tmosley
tmosley's picture

If Harry were a doctor, he would look at a patient that was bleeding out, take careful measurements of how much blood he was losing, and note the falling rate as all the blood drained out.  He would then say, "hey, this guy is going to be fine, there is less blood draining out every minute! How can he possibly die when we have Ben Bernanke there with paddles shocking him to stimulate a heartbeat?"  All this, as ALL of the blood has drained out, and the electrical shocks are now pumping air.  

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:19 | 795964 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

@Harry

Your optimism is heroic. Please define "near term", is it a week, a month, a year?

I see an uneven/ localized "recovery" bought and paid for with unsustainable deficit spending. No one can argue that the markets have made gains over the past year, but to what end? Day traders and other scavengers have put on weight for sure, but what about people who believe this BS is a real bull run?

When the day comes to lock in profits and exit the fun house, I think the doors are going to be locked for in-duh-vidual investors. Too bad so sad, "trading conditions" didn't allow your stop loss to work, or "network outages beyond our control" prevented processing of orders.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:28 | 796006 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

then why can't I find work since October in the services sector? last time I was this desperate was January 2008. We must face the long dark of Moria...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:49 | 796090 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Yes we should be bullish. Everyone listen to Harry and buy AAPL immediately.

In other words - nothing will shut you up.. not even a flash crash.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:41 | 795765 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

TYLER...u have missed today's BIGGEST NEWS...... heres how a CONTROLLED AGENT BEHAVES.........

Rep. Ron Paul Says He Won't Push for End to Fed `Up Front'

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-10/ron-paul-says-he-won-t-push-for...

as written by Deninnger today...RON PAUL is out of excuses.......http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=174523

why does he say that he wont END THE FED........

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:50 | 795808 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Why?  He did say he wouldn’t try to end the fed right out of the gates, because he would rather the people make that choice.  He didn't say he wouldn't try to end the fed either.  Out of context much?

How would he give the people that choice you ask?  Competing currencies, as well as some more sunshine into the Fed’s trillion dollar empire.  Besides, the political will of the current control freaks would not even allow for an End to the Fed right now.  There are cracks in the Fed’s walls, but a complete collapse of the Fed would cause the unprepared to be decimated.

So with this position Dr. Congressman may very well be able to legalize silver and gold for the exchange of goods, without having the intermediary of the dollar being used, and would give the American people an opportunity to choose which currency to use as currency.  While many of the sheep would rather continue to reserve their wealth and purchasing power in paper, those with a head on their shoulders could choose the currency other than toilet paper.

You do realize what would transpire with a closing of the Fed's door on a moments notice don't you? 

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 16:22 | 795850 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

(d)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:53 | 795830 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

He says he's not coming out of the gates swinging for the fences to end the FED, going for oversight first. Looking at his position, he'd get nowhere with his first statement being 'Im ending the FED right now', although Id sure like to hear it. I dont think it indicates 'folding' on his position, I'll hear what he says.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:27 | 796250 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

He's about to be interviewed right now on Hayes Advantage Bloomberg radio.  Tune in now.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:57 | 795834 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Denninger is just pissed at the perp skool elite for shutting him out of the insider gravy train - Even those blood sucking parasites couldn't handle his homo-erotic potty mouth!

Party on Wayne, Rally on Garth!

P.S.  End the Fed *immediately*?  Wouldn't that like collapse the currency *immediately* too?  I'm so glad Dr. Paul is an adult, and not a tyrannical child like ol' Karl...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:05 | 796157 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Oh I don't know. I think Karl is doing a great job; more than most Americans and all the so-called journalists. And he's been calling this sh*t for years.  I'm just saddened I didn't discover TMT, ZH, and CR much sooner.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:18 | 796201 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Like I said, if Karl was an *insider* everything would be okey dokey in the United Empire of Denninger.

Perhaps you aren't acquainted with ol' Karl the Tyrant enough yet, but his narcissistic tirades are all about *him*, and he's hardly a patriot.

And fwiw, there have been *patriots* "calling this sh*t" for years, long before ol' Karl the Tyrant stepped up on his soapbox.

I'll take Dr. Paul's morals & ethics over Denninger's ANY day...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:53 | 796345 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

I have met the man. I can assure this group his motives are pure. While I will not disclose sensative details, if called on Karl would assist with fiscal and monetary solutions. My only beef with services such as Market Ticker and ZH is allowing the continution to promote violence. Normalize the market instead people. In the absense of a market lobbying for sane legislation, you get the House on its own passing bills that are not win-win in any fashion.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:21 | 796747 AugmentedFourth
AugmentedFourth's picture

Excuse my ignorance. But what is CR?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:21 | 796749 AugmentedFourth
AugmentedFourth's picture

Excuse my ignorance. But what is CR?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:15 | 796193 Catullus
Catullus's picture

He said he wants to get them on the record first. This has been a multi-generational fight for the austrians. And it's an issue that has gained traction because of the consistency of the arguement and quality of the ideas. The principle here is that ideas matter.

The fear, correctly so, is that a supra-national organization will attempt to subplant the fed in money creation. It needs to be shown clearly and publicly that fractional reserve banking with a central bank is a disasterous folly for honestly protecting property rights. Trading one fractional reserve scheme with another is not the goal here. But to make that doesn't happen , you have to convince people that the system itself doesn't work.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:21 | 796217 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Well, that would piss ol' Denninger off to no end, since he just *loves* fractional reserve banking and abhors the concept of *real* money (i.e. Au/Ag)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:57 | 796355 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Quix, why not register at Market Ticker and allow Karl the dignity of a response instead of sniping from afar?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:17 | 796400 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

I am registered at TF, have said the same to him there, but I chose not to be part of another *Cult of personality*.

Been around long enough to see how Cults *always* end...

P.S.  Ol' Karl is welcome to try to shout me down here if he felt so inclined (I realize he might feel naked without a *ban* trigger though...lol).

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:42 | 795770 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

GOLDMAN SACHS EQUITIES HEADS ASHDOWN, CYZER SAID TO STEP DOWN *GOLDMAN'S PRINCIPAL STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS CHIEF HYLANDER LEAVES esto se acaba de anunciar... q mal huele esto

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:43 | 795782 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture


TYLER...u have missed today's BIGGEST NEWS...... heres how a CONTROLLED AGENT BEHAVES.........

Rep. Ron Paul Says He Won't Push for End to Fed `Up Front'

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-10/ron-paul-says-he-won-t-push-for...

as written by Deninnger today...RON PAUL is out of excuses.......http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=174523

why does he say that he wont END THE FED........

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:53 | 795829 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

Very interesting, thanks.

So, he turns out to be a tool as well.  I'm shocked.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:29 | 796257 dnarby
dnarby's picture

Oh, get real.

If he came out of the gate vowing to dissolve the Fed, he'd be shot down.

First, you AUDIT the Fed.  Air all the dirty laundry.  Get it aaaaaaall out there.  Let people gape in horror, really let that sick sinking feeling in their gullets marinate.

THEN you end it!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:02 | 795861 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Spam much?  Why so tense, losing your H1B status?

You should go back to tick&flea forum where all of Karl's other Sancho Panzas like to yell & scream...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:32 | 796023 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

i dont live in America....but in India....and i would never go to America ...especially with the threat of a Martial Law around.....and  can u spare those personal abuses and concentrate on TOPIC

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:43 | 796066 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

If you're not a 'MeriKan, why so upset about the Fed?

Why so tense, Gunga Din?

And who the feck are you to open your mouth about the good Dr. Paul?

P.S.  You're the one that *spammed* the thread with your own agenda, not me...too bad, so sad your master isn't here to tyrannically save the day, eh' Gunga?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 14:07 | 796159 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

You really should think about coming here and opening a casino.  First step is getting introduced to Pelosi's son.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:44 | 795788 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

COF and WFC are up 2% today.

The banks usually top out 3 - 4 months before the broad market does, or at least start showing relative weakness. So far, market health remains positive.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:59 | 795852 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

And according to the charts, they both have another 8-10% left in them before any real resistance.

Also, SPX has broken out and is now headed to 1250. Who woulda thunk? Oh, that's right I recall being junked constantly for making that call that we'd see minimum 1250 by EOY.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:17 | 795954 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

According to the charts? Huh...well what do the chicken bones say?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:31 | 796016 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Lol' ...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:29 | 796008 ATG
ATG's picture

Junking HW 'coz SPX target is actually 1590;

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=spx

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:59 | 795856 random shots
random shots's picture

Banks topped out in Apr 2010 in terms of prices...Relative Weakness dates back to Q4 2009 for the TBTF crowd....Better check your IBD charts, Robo!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:19 | 795963 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Don't question Robo...he is IBD Level 2 certified.

LOL

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:45 | 795793 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Goldman Sachs must be closed by any US president.

But first GS  must pay...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:46 | 795801 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

That means the market is going higher due the powers that be. I guess thats good. Why would anyone fight the powers that be?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:50 | 795814 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Where are they going to find new suckers to buy higher? Looks like theyre already all-in to me.

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 16:21 | 795823 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

(d)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:51 | 795824 max2205
max2205's picture

Naz feels too zoomy but hey I seen em run beyond belief

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:51 | 795826 MarkCaplan
MarkCaplan's picture

The chart contradicts the headline: the Rydex Nasdaq 100 Bull/Bear Ratio peaked at 45  times in the Dot Com era. Today that ratio is only a rather sedate 35 times. Wake me when it goes to the old highs.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:30 | 796017 ATG
ATG's picture

Bingo

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:57 | 795846 More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

Back in the day(2000) there were books with bids (real bids) for stocks ....the fall was slowed by real people buying....now when the trigger is pulled, whatever that event is... you will see the market fall like never before..The HFT's will be shut off and there are no more market makers ....good luck finding a bid in a dark pool...hahhahaha

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:03 | 795883 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyve already got everyone all-in who's going all in, now while theyre all feeling calm as Hindu cows like Harry and Robo here, nothing left to do but wipe them out completely. Thats whats next, and theyll do it so theres no way out for them.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:32 | 796021 ATG
ATG's picture

John Q may join the madness before it's all over...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:36 | 796043 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whats BK John Q going in with, rolling SNAP cards to trading accounts?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:52 | 796105 sabra1
sabra1's picture

agree, it'll be done overnight, come morning, phone lines and internet jammed, unable to get out! it'll come without any warning!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:52 | 796106 sabra1
sabra1's picture

agree, it'll be done overnight, come morning, phone lines and internet jammed, unable to get out! it'll come without any warning!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:00 | 795865 Golden monkey
Golden monkey's picture

This time it's different.

We have Benny's divine protection (so the trading will be halted after a 10% sudden drop).

Benny will then print all night long.

Heard about the PPT???

This time, we exit by the top (and get a worthless USD). We are almost there.

 

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 16:20 | 795887 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

(d)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:03 | 795872 Racer
Racer's picture

"when optimism, and outright stupidity, reached such extreme levels back in 2001."

Now HFT is the vast majority of volume, then optimism does not apply to computers as they have no feelings.

on the other hand outright stupidity applies most definitely to computers, so therefore this is not extreme  at all now carbon based life forms have been eliminated

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:05 | 795897 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Why run the HFT's up? To get everyone onboard. Everyone is now onboard. The only reason for a pump is the ensuing dump.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:05 | 795901 Cdad
Cdad's picture

As if to make you point, GE announces a 14 cent dividend, and the entire market rises instantly.  Makes sense.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:03 | 795888 MikeyKid
MikeyKid's picture

I'm waiting for a Marijuana ETF... the next REAL bubble that we all can jump into.

 

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 16:19 | 795929 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

(d)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:05 | 795900 MST3K
MST3K's picture

Global Crossing anyone?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:08 | 795916 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

TD, it is difficult to get nervous when Zimbabwe Ben is at the helm.  It will be fun when the free money stops and all the bids disappear ala May 6th.  Watching the SPX fall 100 bps per second will be hilarious.  I have the popcorn ready for the second it happens. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:13 | 795932 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

JUST MAKE SURE YOU HAVE YOUR 90% SILVER BAGS READY!!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:36 | 796041 Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

I have my ounce bags....of weed ready 

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 16:19 | 796369 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

(d)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:14 | 795945 sheep92
sheep92's picture

There are a variety of sentiment indicators that are pretty stretched here.  I think we are probably in the midst of fund bear capitulation where long / short bear funds are having money withdrawn at end of year. Its not so much that the managers are changing their minds its that the clients are tired of losing money. There are no 'new' good macro reasons to be short at least they are not being promulgated in the press.

There ain't a lot of gung ho folks here looking to 'fight the fed'.

It looks like if there is going to be a bear surprise it will come via emerging markets.  They have been tightening rates all year and sooner or later it is going to have effect.  Brazil and China, the two can't miss markets have sucked this year especially relative to the Russell 2000.  Speaking of which it is more expensive now relative to SPY than at the spring highs. 

Forward vol is collapsing over the last 10 days and now a lot of the contango is out of the vix futures curve.

If and when it happens any decline is likely to be sharp and quick.

I have cashed in 50% of my long portfolio over the last few days and overhedged the rest so I am now net short a pretty good chunk.

Sometimes the fat happy sheep get to walk away.......

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:25 | 795968 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Looks like Chinas rate hike today or over the weekend has been duly forgotten, 'priced in' Im sure. Just another day in the Hindu cow markets.

OH yea...and remember that 'If they dont extend these tax cuts, its incredibly bad for the markets everyone will run for the exits'...so now that tax cuts have been rejected, thats also 'cntrl alt del' too? Everyone already forget the China rate hikes and US tax increases? Anyone? Beuller?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:16 | 795950 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

sentiment means nothing.  "this time is different".

(until it isn't)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:23 | 795979 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Ignoring the weakness in the dollar and long end of the bond market, looks like a buy buy buy enviroment.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:26 | 795993 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Also ignoring China rate hikes and US tax hikes....buybuybuy!!!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:42 | 796057 Racer
Racer's picture

UK Petrol prices have hit a record average level of 121.76p for a litre of unleaded petrol,

and we have had FIVE rises in fuel duty in the past two years - and ANOTHER one in January, PLUS a VAT rise.

That will be great for the ordinary person won't it.. inflation very low eh??

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:42 | 796059 toathis
toathis's picture

Time for DOOM is over... WE are in recovery. Better get used to it.

Even Dr. Doom is bullish on the US.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BS7bNFBwvf4

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:48 | 796082 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Trading in those dollah$ for an asset that *might* survive the coming currency devaluation/collapse.

Run, Run, Rudolph...Ben's copters gotta make it to town!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:48 | 796088 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I have some UGA at $32 and $34.

If UGA takes off out of this consolidation, then we have the possibility of big inflation coming, and I will be buying more on the breakout.

If not, then inflation remains contained for now.

I have to be careful, because I drive a gas guzzling truck.

But lucky for me, I trade stocks for a living home and don't have to drive much.

Maybe I will buy a Prius with my "ill-gotten gains" by being a bull this whole year if gas prices take off.

But as usual, I know nothing, I'll let the market decide.

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:37 | 796549 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Whether we see inflation is another question...when I see stocks like NAK and NG exploding higher something is up...especially when these companies are aways from producing.

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