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Rydex Nasdaq 100 Bull/Bear Ratio At Highest Since Dot Com Collapse
And for another confirmation that the Nasdaq is now at the same extreme "irrational exuberance" levels last seen during the dot com crash, we read courtesy of sentimenttrader.com that the Rydex Nasdaq 100 bull/bear ratio is now the highest it has been since just before the dot com crash. "Traders in the Rydex mutual fund family have poured into the Nasdaq 100 long fund at the expense of the inverse fund on the same index. These traders now have 34 times more money invested in the long fund vs. the inverse fund, which is the highest ratio since the bubble days of 2000 and early 2001." And what is scarier, is that unlike during the dot com, investors are using leveraged methods to express their exuberance: "The Bull / Bear Ratio for the leveraged funds isn't quite as extreme...but it's close (on a relative basis)."
And some more observations on irrational exuberance v2
Taking a cue from the Nasdaq 100 chart to the left, this one shows a composite Bull / Bear Ratio for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA (we don't have this chart on the site yet). The ratio neared 3.0 on Thursday, meaning there's almost 3 times more assets in the long index funds than the inverse index funds. Since 2004, only two other times approached this level (late February 2004 and November/December 2004). Other times the ratio approached this level, stocks backed off in the month(s) ahead.
Hopefully some of this generation's traders recall what happened when optimism, and outright stupidity, reached such extreme levels back in 2001.
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Rally on!
yeah, compaing apples to apples to 2000-2001 it looks like we have an easy 2000 NAZ points to the upside before we have to worry
I don't think you get it. 100% bullish sentiment means that valuations are already WAYYY too high.
Our bubble reflation will not take us back to the highs before it pops.
"Do you ... Yahoooooo?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKmTHHlZ4Vw
Work at a post production house, were doing some Yahoo spots right now. Some coincide with the Tron movie launch. Watching these spots over and over remind me of the .com days. Irony i suppose.
Makes a lot of sense in light of the 32 week of net outflows. Which is it? Feast of famine? If you can't aggregate it all together and forumulate something meaningful, why bother going from day to day puting up contradictory data
Yawnnn
yeah, 32 week outflows, retail not participating ... but household worth up because of asset investments and everyone's bullish ...
Nothing more than fodder for the space monkeys. Who cares about a coherent thesis?
Holy shit FAZ is sub 10. All time high was 1400 I think. Is this too good to pass up. Risk on!
Go fer it!
Good luck with the newly empowered SEC playing short trading suspension games...
Am I the only one taking joy in watching AAPL have a tough time with $320? lol
Apples market Cap, will soon Rival Exxon Mobil !!!
Does this mean iPads are now equally important as oil?
Once it breaks this resistance, it'll be at $350 in a heartbeat. Very similar to the move before last earnings when it was stuck around $250 forever, then BOOM, flew up to $300.
Sold to you!
Today's AAPL movement is all pinned to 320 weekly options. Next week is the big push higher.
Sold to you... On margin!
I think AAPL is pausing because the NDX is about 30 points from it's 07 high. Just one good trading day for the NDX. Maybe there will be(God, I mean Fed Forbid) a pull back at this level.
should be good for about another 50-100 SP points
Gotz to have hope. Dow 36000 here we come
Robo is about to get bankrupted AGAIN.
Get your Nasdaq 10,000 hats out!
Idiots...Probably going up tho, I'm serious. QEnasdaq next
This time it's different! We have a robust economy, low unemployment, cheap energy, good wages....
Umm.. that was ten years ago. Nevermind
The internet's gonna be huge! I have a cousin who works for an IT company and he has all his money invested in tech.
Radio is gonna be Huge!
Railroads are gonna be Huge!
Canals are gonna be Huge!
Tulips are gonna be Huge!
Don't forget Airlines, they are going to print money!
or silver and gold for the same reason...;
How about fixing your captchas that demand 4 character answers limited to 3!
+1 LOL
No, it wasn't robust, just the ponzi-ness hadn't reached it's full potential.
Good wages? No. Better than NOW, yes. Good, HELL NO.
During the dot.com mania, speculators were still leveraging. I personally knew people who were taking out HELOCs to invest in Cisco, Lucent, Yahoo, Webvan shares. Hell, if I had had any home equity back then I probably would have done the same. Older and wiser now.
I'm contemplating taking out a HELOC to invest in precious metals. So shiny...my preciousssssss....
Good luck with that trade
We should be bullish - at least near term. Consumer confidence is skying higher so they will continue their spending ways. Claims have been dropping pretty much weekly now but certainly in a solid trend. Trade deficit was great news. All the manufacturing indices have been strong.
And last but not least, Ben will continue pumping the system. Until that stops, how can you not be bullish??
Because it's numbers based on government lies and fakery.
That's right, I almost forgot the mantra, if it's good news, it's a "lie/fraud/manipulation", if it's a bad number it's gospel. Thanks for reminding me.
No, it's a case of whether you trust your government (proven liars and murderers) or your own eyes and judgement. It's a simple choice.
No one is sure Harry has either...
Harry going by the phone poll.
Lol... does it matter anyway? The crash(es) was a "once in a lifetime" event(s)! Rally in perpetuity!
30,000 Dow by New Year's?;
Harry,
First, the sentiment indicator is a contrary one. Are you aware of this?
Second, Jobless claims are still very high taken an average. Granted, it's not 700k but it is still WELL above comfortable and employment increasing levels.
Both points are hardly a reason to be bullish on stocks other than the care free blind herd mentality that is currently driving stocks up..
Get a clue..
No Harry, more like "the data is bad" which means more easing which is good for equities OR "the data is good" which means recovery is taking hold which is good for equities. Risk has been thrown out the window and soon may even be removed from finance textbooks at this rate.
Damn, I wasted a complete semester in college on that "Risk Management in Financial Institutions" class. I should have just taken the "How to profit from moral hazard" class online for $19.99
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ke5Mr5eCF2U
Harry ya sidewindin craker croaker!
Are you serious?
Claims are ar recession levels on average what the peak of the last recession. U3 got worse!
Do you interact with people? They aren't buying anything big, no houses, worried about jobs. Gas and food are very pricey.
Yes, my company "interacts with people" seven days a week. Consumer discretionary and our best Fall and Holiday Season in our 9 year history. I see it everyday in strong sales.
How about you? Where do you "interact"? Are you selling consumer goods??
Harry sells black velvet paintings of Elvis and bullfighters at abandoned 7-11 parking lots...he sees the public quite a bit.
+100
And the rest of the velvet he uses to line coffins for the homeless which is his main business
You guys have it wrong... he's selling floor safes and home security systems.
One thing for sure... For someone who's business is booming, he sure spends a lot of time trolling on ZH. XD
LOL
HEY - you owe me an ounce of silver
But are your quantities sold at their 9 year peak, or are you only going by dollars?
Quantity. We've added dozens of new retail outlets across the country this Fall and just signed an international licensing agreement which will quadruple the amount of product sold by Q2 2011.
And we're not the only one growing like this. Last week I talked with our suppliers, manufacturers, retailers, etc. and all down the chain they were excited about the turnaround.
(d)
Really Harry so what is the NAME of this retail outlet which are adding by the dozens all over the place?
Add the name so your 'facts' can be verified, or its all BS.
Harry is a *professional* troll.
Most likely a college drop-out that couldn't find work and is posting from his Mom's basement on Ben's dime...
Any Webnews/forum page that threatens the prep skool establishment is full of them.
Agent provocateurs are easy to spot:
A> Claim to be wildly successful in private business (though they'll never tell you the name of their cash cow).
B> Usually hangin' out on the forums 9-5, like a job.
C> Support whatever rhetoric is being spewed from the MSM on behalf of the Fraud St./District of Criminals Establishment.
Good moderation is required to weed-out these parasites, otherwise they usually end up overtaking the site...
+1 Do they get paid? Or is it some psycological need?
Both?
Harry can you hire me since your retail outlets are going so great guns and rolling in profits? Email me whenever, davids1113@comcast.net THANKS I'll be waiting!
It's Walmart, Harry is an associate for Walmart.
Harry is running an experiment on permabears and has multiple avatars. He is not a serious poster. He's goading us all.
(d)
Traderjoe where is Harrys artice going to be printed, New England Journal of Wankers?
(d)
Harry, are you hiring?
Just got laid off from a mid-tier steel company last week; of till at least Feb. Rumors of bankruptcy. PM me at your leisure.
If you're serious, we are going to be adding positions after the holidays to gear up for the international business. If you are near the Twin Cities and truly interested, I can forward an email address to you to send your resume.
Only near the Twin Cities? I thought you just said youre opening new retail outlets by the score all across the fruited plains?
Anyway whats the name of the retail outlets? Thaaaaanks.
Harry Im waiting for an email...whats wrong?
This is BS Harry...all this talk and you wont even send an email. I deem you chock full o bullshit.
Sure, what's your email?
Duh? I wrote it above.
Sent.
What the hell is this Harry? Zero information at all.
Hello, We will be hiring at our Twin Cities facility located in Minneapolis at the end of Q1 2011. Right now we anticipate 8-12 new full time positions. If you are serious, I can give you a more detailed description of the jobs available. When I refer to adding "dozens of retail outlets", they are distributors who own their outlets. We sell to them. We've added retailers in Las Vegas, Seattle, Chicago and New York this Fall in addition to the current retailers. That impacts distribution and manufacturing on my end, hence the move to hire in Q1/Q2. HWOk Harry so now what am I supposed to do, pack up and move to the Twin Cities based upon this email which says nothing?
Lol. Just look for the booming retailer.
You said once you lived near Seattle. Hard to keep track of the lies isn't it?
Seattle...Twin Cities....BAH whats the difference!
He means Seattle/Tacoma...
because the market does not trade on real world events, its simply a casino that the controlling operators can move to whatever arbitrary number they like.
Don't be so naive.
Seriously harry - when does your study on permabears end? You never answer me. How do you chose which avatar to post under?
(d)
If Harry were a doctor, he would look at a patient that was bleeding out, take careful measurements of how much blood he was losing, and note the falling rate as all the blood drained out. He would then say, "hey, this guy is going to be fine, there is less blood draining out every minute! How can he possibly die when we have Ben Bernanke there with paddles shocking him to stimulate a heartbeat?" All this, as ALL of the blood has drained out, and the electrical shocks are now pumping air.
@Harry
Your optimism is heroic. Please define "near term", is it a week, a month, a year?
I see an uneven/ localized "recovery" bought and paid for with unsustainable deficit spending. No one can argue that the markets have made gains over the past year, but to what end? Day traders and other scavengers have put on weight for sure, but what about people who believe this BS is a real bull run?
When the day comes to lock in profits and exit the fun house, I think the doors are going to be locked for in-duh-vidual investors. Too bad so sad, "trading conditions" didn't allow your stop loss to work, or "network outages beyond our control" prevented processing of orders.
then why can't I find work since October in the services sector? last time I was this desperate was January 2008. We must face the long dark of Moria...
Yes we should be bullish. Everyone listen to Harry and buy AAPL immediately.
In other words - nothing will shut you up.. not even a flash crash.
TYLER...u have missed today's BIGGEST NEWS...... heres how a CONTROLLED AGENT BEHAVES.........
Rep. Ron Paul Says He Won't Push for End to Fed `Up Front'
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-10/ron-paul-says-he-won-t-push-for...
as written by Deninnger today...RON PAUL is out of excuses.......http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=174523
why does he say that he wont END THE FED........
Why? He did say he wouldn’t try to end the fed right out of the gates, because he would rather the people make that choice. He didn't say he wouldn't try to end the fed either. Out of context much?
How would he give the people that choice you ask? Competing currencies, as well as some more sunshine into the Fed’s trillion dollar empire. Besides, the political will of the current control freaks would not even allow for an End to the Fed right now. There are cracks in the Fed’s walls, but a complete collapse of the Fed would cause the unprepared to be decimated.
So with this position Dr. Congressman may very well be able to legalize silver and gold for the exchange of goods, without having the intermediary of the dollar being used, and would give the American people an opportunity to choose which currency to use as currency. While many of the sheep would rather continue to reserve their wealth and purchasing power in paper, those with a head on their shoulders could choose the currency other than toilet paper.
You do realize what would transpire with a closing of the Fed's door on a moments notice don't you?
(d)
He says he's not coming out of the gates swinging for the fences to end the FED, going for oversight first. Looking at his position, he'd get nowhere with his first statement being 'Im ending the FED right now', although Id sure like to hear it. I dont think it indicates 'folding' on his position, I'll hear what he says.
He's about to be interviewed right now on Hayes Advantage Bloomberg radio. Tune in now.
Denninger is just pissed at the perp skool elite for shutting him out of the insider gravy train - Even those blood sucking parasites couldn't handle his homo-erotic potty mouth!
Party on Wayne, Rally on Garth!
P.S. End the Fed *immediately*? Wouldn't that like collapse the currency *immediately* too? I'm so glad Dr. Paul is an adult, and not a tyrannical child like ol' Karl...
Oh I don't know. I think Karl is doing a great job; more than most Americans and all the so-called journalists. And he's been calling this sh*t for years. I'm just saddened I didn't discover TMT, ZH, and CR much sooner.
Like I said, if Karl was an *insider* everything would be okey dokey in the United Empire of Denninger.
Perhaps you aren't acquainted with ol' Karl the Tyrant enough yet, but his narcissistic tirades are all about *him*, and he's hardly a patriot.
And fwiw, there have been *patriots* "calling this sh*t" for years, long before ol' Karl the Tyrant stepped up on his soapbox.
I'll take Dr. Paul's morals & ethics over Denninger's ANY day...
I have met the man. I can assure this group his motives are pure. While I will not disclose sensative details, if called on Karl would assist with fiscal and monetary solutions. My only beef with services such as Market Ticker and ZH is allowing the continution to promote violence. Normalize the market instead people. In the absense of a market lobbying for sane legislation, you get the House on its own passing bills that are not win-win in any fashion.
Excuse my ignorance. But what is CR?
Excuse my ignorance. But what is CR?
He said he wants to get them on the record first. This has been a multi-generational fight for the austrians. And it's an issue that has gained traction because of the consistency of the arguement and quality of the ideas. The principle here is that ideas matter.
The fear, correctly so, is that a supra-national organization will attempt to subplant the fed in money creation. It needs to be shown clearly and publicly that fractional reserve banking with a central bank is a disasterous folly for honestly protecting property rights. Trading one fractional reserve scheme with another is not the goal here. But to make that doesn't happen , you have to convince people that the system itself doesn't work.
Well, that would piss ol' Denninger off to no end, since he just *loves* fractional reserve banking and abhors the concept of *real* money (i.e. Au/Ag)
Quix, why not register at Market Ticker and allow Karl the dignity of a response instead of sniping from afar?
I am registered at TF, have said the same to him there, but I chose not to be part of another *Cult of personality*.
Been around long enough to see how Cults *always* end...
P.S. Ol' Karl is welcome to try to shout me down here if he felt so inclined (I realize he might feel naked without a *ban* trigger though...lol).
GOLDMAN SACHS EQUITIES HEADS ASHDOWN, CYZER SAID TO STEP DOWN *GOLDMAN'S PRINCIPAL STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS CHIEF HYLANDER LEAVES esto se acaba de anunciar... q mal huele esto
TYLER...u have missed today's BIGGEST NEWS...... heres how a CONTROLLED AGENT BEHAVES.........
Rep. Ron Paul Says He Won't Push for End to Fed `Up Front'
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-10/ron-paul-says-he-won-t-push-for...
as written by Deninnger today...RON PAUL is out of excuses.......http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=174523
why does he say that he wont END THE FED........
Very interesting, thanks.
So, he turns out to be a tool as well. I'm shocked.
Oh, get real.
If he came out of the gate vowing to dissolve the Fed, he'd be shot down.
First, you AUDIT the Fed. Air all the dirty laundry. Get it aaaaaaall out there. Let people gape in horror, really let that sick sinking feeling in their gullets marinate.
THEN you end it!
Spam much? Why so tense, losing your H1B status?
You should go back to tick&flea forum where all of Karl's other Sancho Panzas like to yell & scream...
i dont live in America....but in India....and i would never go to America ...especially with the threat of a Martial Law around.....and can u spare those personal abuses and concentrate on TOPIC
If you're not a 'MeriKan, why so upset about the Fed?
Why so tense, Gunga Din?
And who the feck are you to open your mouth about the good Dr. Paul?
P.S. You're the one that *spammed* the thread with your own agenda, not me...too bad, so sad your master isn't here to tyrannically save the day, eh' Gunga?
You really should think about coming here and opening a casino. First step is getting introduced to Pelosi's son.
COF and WFC are up 2% today.
The banks usually top out 3 - 4 months before the broad market does, or at least start showing relative weakness. So far, market health remains positive.
And according to the charts, they both have another 8-10% left in them before any real resistance.
Also, SPX has broken out and is now headed to 1250. Who woulda thunk? Oh, that's right I recall being junked constantly for making that call that we'd see minimum 1250 by EOY.
According to the charts? Huh...well what do the chicken bones say?
Lol' ...
Junking HW 'coz SPX target is actually 1590;
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=spx
Banks topped out in Apr 2010 in terms of prices...Relative Weakness dates back to Q4 2009 for the TBTF crowd....Better check your IBD charts, Robo!
Don't question Robo...he is IBD Level 2 certified.
LOL
Goldman Sachs must be closed by any US president.
But first GS must pay...
That means the market is going higher due the powers that be. I guess thats good. Why would anyone fight the powers that be?
Where are they going to find new suckers to buy higher? Looks like theyre already all-in to me.
(d)
Naz feels too zoomy but hey I seen em run beyond belief
The chart contradicts the headline: the Rydex Nasdaq 100 Bull/Bear Ratio peaked at 45 times in the Dot Com era. Today that ratio is only a rather sedate 35 times. Wake me when it goes to the old highs.
Bingo
Back in the day(2000) there were books with bids (real bids) for stocks ....the fall was slowed by real people buying....now when the trigger is pulled, whatever that event is... you will see the market fall like never before..The HFT's will be shut off and there are no more market makers ....good luck finding a bid in a dark pool...hahhahaha
Theyve already got everyone all-in who's going all in, now while theyre all feeling calm as Hindu cows like Harry and Robo here, nothing left to do but wipe them out completely. Thats whats next, and theyll do it so theres no way out for them.
John Q may join the madness before it's all over...
Whats BK John Q going in with, rolling SNAP cards to trading accounts?
agree, it'll be done overnight, come morning, phone lines and internet jammed, unable to get out! it'll come without any warning!
agree, it'll be done overnight, come morning, phone lines and internet jammed, unable to get out! it'll come without any warning!
This time it's different.
We have Benny's divine protection (so the trading will be halted after a 10% sudden drop).
Benny will then print all night long.
Heard about the PPT???
This time, we exit by the top (and get a worthless USD). We are almost there.
(d)
"when optimism, and outright stupidity, reached such extreme levels back in 2001."
Now HFT is the vast majority of volume, then optimism does not apply to computers as they have no feelings.
on the other hand outright stupidity applies most definitely to computers, so therefore this is not extreme at all now carbon based life forms have been eliminated
Why run the HFT's up? To get everyone onboard. Everyone is now onboard. The only reason for a pump is the ensuing dump.
As if to make you point, GE announces a 14 cent dividend, and the entire market rises instantly. Makes sense.
I'm waiting for a Marijuana ETF... the next REAL bubble that we all can jump into.
(d)
Global Crossing anyone?
TD, it is difficult to get nervous when Zimbabwe Ben is at the helm. It will be fun when the free money stops and all the bids disappear ala May 6th. Watching the SPX fall 100 bps per second will be hilarious. I have the popcorn ready for the second it happens.
JUST MAKE SURE YOU HAVE YOUR 90% SILVER BAGS READY!!
I have my ounce bags....of weed ready
(d)
There are a variety of sentiment indicators that are pretty stretched here. I think we are probably in the midst of fund bear capitulation where long / short bear funds are having money withdrawn at end of year. Its not so much that the managers are changing their minds its that the clients are tired of losing money. There are no 'new' good macro reasons to be short at least they are not being promulgated in the press.
There ain't a lot of gung ho folks here looking to 'fight the fed'.
It looks like if there is going to be a bear surprise it will come via emerging markets. They have been tightening rates all year and sooner or later it is going to have effect. Brazil and China, the two can't miss markets have sucked this year especially relative to the Russell 2000. Speaking of which it is more expensive now relative to SPY than at the spring highs.
Forward vol is collapsing over the last 10 days and now a lot of the contango is out of the vix futures curve.
If and when it happens any decline is likely to be sharp and quick.
I have cashed in 50% of my long portfolio over the last few days and overhedged the rest so I am now net short a pretty good chunk.
Sometimes the fat happy sheep get to walk away.......
Looks like Chinas rate hike today or over the weekend has been duly forgotten, 'priced in' Im sure. Just another day in the Hindu cow markets.
OH yea...and remember that 'If they dont extend these tax cuts, its incredibly bad for the markets everyone will run for the exits'...so now that tax cuts have been rejected, thats also 'cntrl alt del' too? Everyone already forget the China rate hikes and US tax increases? Anyone? Beuller?
sentiment means nothing. "this time is different".
(until it isn't)
Ignoring the weakness in the dollar and long end of the bond market, looks like a buy buy buy enviroment.
Also ignoring China rate hikes and US tax hikes....buybuybuy!!!
UK Petrol prices have hit a record average level of 121.76p for a litre of unleaded petrol,
and we have had FIVE rises in fuel duty in the past two years - and ANOTHER one in January, PLUS a VAT rise.
That will be great for the ordinary person won't it.. inflation very low eh??
Time for DOOM is over... WE are in recovery. Better get used to it.
Even Dr. Doom is bullish on the US.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BS7bNFBwvf4
Trading in those dollah$ for an asset that *might* survive the coming currency devaluation/collapse.
Run, Run, Rudolph...Ben's copters gotta make it to town!
I have some UGA at $32 and $34.
If UGA takes off out of this consolidation, then we have the possibility of big inflation coming, and I will be buying more on the breakout.
If not, then inflation remains contained for now.
I have to be careful, because I drive a gas guzzling truck.
But lucky for me, I trade stocks for a living home and don't have to drive much.
Maybe I will buy a Prius with my "ill-gotten gains" by being a bull this whole year if gas prices take off.
But as usual, I know nothing, I'll let the market decide.
Whether we see inflation is another question...when I see stocks like NAK and NG exploding higher something is up...especially when these companies are aways from producing.