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Saturday Readings
- Here we go: Geithner formally asks Congress to lift $12.1 trillion statutory debt limit, saying it could be breached as early as October, Amex Centurion happy to comply (Reuters)
"It is critically important that Congress act before the limit is
reached so that citizens and investors here and around the world can
remain confident that the United States will always meet its
obligations" - Tim Geithner - Totally unrelated - psychopaths have faulty brain connections, scientists say (Reuters)
- Must read: Deleveraging the U.S. Economy (Comstock Partners, h/t Vince)
- Health debate turns hostile at town hall meeting (NYT)
- Healthcare critics make childish claims, Obama says (Reuters)
- The history of the stock market (Mint)
- CIT now considering secured bond swap for near-term maturities (DebtWire)
- Long suffering Finlay Jewelers files for bankruptcy, to sell assets (CoStar Group)
- TARP cop cites bailout lobbying (CNNMoney, h/t Lizzy)
- How to blow a bubble (Baseline Scenario)
- One man was target of twitter DOS hacker attack (NYT)
- Swine flu this fall: turbulence ahead (Science Blogs, h/t Paul)
- How tough is the SEC? (Boston.com)
- Primary drivers in AIG's profitability:
"Commenting on the second quarter results, AIG Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Edward M.
Liddy said, “Our results reflect stabilization in certain of our businesses. The primary drivers
of our positive second quarter results were reductions in net realized capital losses, primarily
due to the decline in other than temporary impairments resulting from the adoption of new
accounting guidance and improved market conditions"
- thank you accounting voodoo and confidence game for creating a mega squeeze (h/t happy nietzsche) - Helicopter hits small plane near New York (Reuters)
»
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Also from NYT:
Private sector added virtually no jobs during the last 10 years:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/08/business/economy/08charts.html?ref=bus...
FYI, the type of captcha employed here is hardly sophisticated enough to differentiate a human from machine (ie programmer). Below is my machine's answer for 100 page requests. I'm just saying this was fairly trivial to code and the point of employing a captcha is to make programs work hard but even if they do succeed, the success rate should be in the low percentiles. This only took a couple hours to code in Perl.
X is 17 for 48 plus (-31) equals X
X is 21 for X times (-19) equals -399
X is 7 for 30 plus (-23) equals X
X is 69 for 34 minus (-35) equals X
X is -57 for (-26) plus (-31) equals X
X is 18 for five times X equals 90
X is 2 for (-31) plus 33 equals X
X is -2 for X plus 18 equals 16
X is -19 for two minus 21 equals X
X is 9 for (-48) plus X equals -39
X is -6 for six minus X equals twelve
X is -437 for 19 times (-23) equals X
X is 1 for X times (minus fourteen) equals minus fourteen
X is 61 for 18 plus 43 equals X
X is -11 for X times (minus thirteen) equals 143
X is 5 for X times four equals 20
X is -49 for X plus (-26) equals -75
X is 18 for three minus X equals minus fifteen
X is 80 for 16 times five equals X
X is -20 for (-19) minus X equals one
X is 38 for 43 minus five equals X
X is 4 for (-17) minus X equals -21
X is -28 for (-36) minus X equals minus eight
X is -21 for X plus 44 equals 23
X is -17 for 48 minus X equals 65
X is 15 for X times (-16) equals -240
X is -42 for X minus (-42) equals zero
X is -240 for (minus twelve) times 20 equals X
X is 10 for two times X equals 20
X is 25 for X minus (-47) equals 72
X is 198 for 22 times nine equals X
X is 23 for X minus (-43) equals 66
X is 1 for (minus three) minus X equals minus four
X is -14 for (-20) minus X equals minus six
X is 3 for X plus 28 equals 31
X is 104 for thirteen times eight equals X
X is 3 for X minus (minus six) equals nine
X is 59 for 29 plus 30 equals X
X is 10 for X minus 48 equals -38
X is 19 for X times 22 equals 418
X is 17 for X plus (-45) equals -28
X is 14 for X times 19 equals 266
X is 47 for X plus 49 equals 96
X is -65 for (minus thirteen) times five equals X
X is -18 for X minus (-42) equals 24
X is -180 for (-18) times ten equals X
X is -23 for (-17) minus X equals six
X is -11 for (-38) plus X equals -49
X is -24 for X plus six equals -18
X is 275 for 25 times eleven equals X
X is 138 for six times 23 equals X
X is -32 for nine plus X equals -23
X is 1 for 41 plus (-40) equals X
X is -44 for X minus (minus thirteen) equals -31
X is -75 for (-25) times three equals X
X is -12 for X times (minus eight) equals 96
X is -21 for (minus eight) plus (minus thirteen) equals X
X is -18 for (-46) minus X equals -28
X is 24 for twelve times two equals X
X is 30 for (minus six) minus X equals -36
X is -46 for two minus X equals 48
X is -19 for X minus (minus six) equals minus thirteen
X is -3 for ten times X equals -30
X is 21 for X times (-20) equals -420
X is -11 for (minus two) plus X equals minus thirteen
X is -2 for 23 minus 25 equals X
X is -240 for 20 times (minus twelve) equals X
X is 0 for 30 plus (-30) equals X
X is -19 for (minus three) times X equals 57
X is 53 for 50 minus (minus three) equals X
X is -55 for (-38) plus (-17) equals X
X is 6 for X times (minus eleven) equals -66
X is 312 for (minus thirteen) times (-24) equals X
X is -2 for X minus (-27) equals 25
X is -304 for (-19) times 16 equals X
X is 33 for X minus (-46) equals 79
X is 7 for (minus one) times (minus seven) equals X
X is -38 for X minus 29 equals -67
X is 336 for (-21) times (-16) equals X
X is -19 for two times X equals -38
X is 16 for 20 plus (minus four) equals X
X is -49 for 17 minus X equals 66
X is 46 for X minus (-47) equals 93
X is 44 for X minus 43 equals one
X is 26 for X minus (minus fifteen) equals 41
X is 25 for X plus (-37) equals minus twelve
X is -17 for 16 times X equals -272
X is -43 for X minus (-36) equals minus seven
X is -38 for X plus 25 equals minus thirteen
X is -11 for (-33) plus X equals -44
X is -32 for (-20) minus X equals twelve
X is 9 for 20 plus (minus eleven) equals X
X is 13 for X minus fifteen equals minus two
X is -43 for X plus eleven equals -32
X is -48 for 46 minus X equals 94
X is -83 for (-41) minus 42 equals X
X is -6 for X plus (-43) equals -49
X is -1 for 22 times X equals -22
X is -77 for seven times (minus eleven) equals X
X is -16 for X times (minus two) equals 32
BTW, I am a fan of ZH.
You're ruining access to ZH for the mentally-handicapped chimps / mutual fund managers that lost 40% of my savings last year.
It took you that long to figure out we were in a bear market? I'm sorry for your losses but inflation adjusted the market topped in 2000 with the NAS bubble. Tips, metals, and foreign currencies for you future investments once we top 10500. Again, sorry for you losses.
You spent a couple of hours coding in Pearl to let us know you can beat the captcha?
Dude!
No, I did it because it was a challenge.
I do agree that this captcha type will prevent most nuisances, but with the type of writing that goes on here, nuisances may be drawn here.
I'm just pointing out a weakness and I believe it's always best to know any weakness you may have.
Indeed. As is the art of creative discussion.
/No, I did it because it was a challenge./
I thought that what you did was cool, fwiw.
Do you think it might be better to try questions about "what do men really want?"
better yet - force the user to short 10 shares of GS each time they want to post
But can you beat the capture?
For the most part, it doesn't matter. As long as this website isn't specifically targeted, any captcha will do. Check out the captcha from the c2 wiki (which is, sort of, the world's first wiki)
http://www.c2.com/cgi/wiki?edit=JavaBeans
It just say "enter 567" in plain text. Evidently it works.
I agree on principle. But this site might attract unwanted attention.
Time to change the format I see.
This takes only a couple seconds in the admin panel.
Does this issue equate to blending loops?
Pretty cool... but anyone who can write that code in Perl should get the 'Special Unlimited Ride Wristband' into ZH and be able to bypass the Captcha...
Perhaps you could have illustrated your point without the inclusion of one hundred lines of utterly scrollable data. After mastering Perl, study-up a bit on the fine art of editing. The scrolling really threw me out of my groove. [places back of hand to forehead]
Is this proof that tech jobs are getting slim too?
I have stated before F CAPTCHA (for those of us who choose to abide by ZH's manifest of anonymity) - I too am a fan of ZH but the novelty of CAPTCHA is wearing thin e.g. a pain in the ass (at least if ZH would provide online tutoring for basic arithmetic, that might be a consolation) -
Math question: (minus twelve) times twelve equals |-144 |
Math question cannot be longer than 3 characters but is currently 4 characters long.
who cares really
Now could you please crack the algo's for GS robots?
The private sector on its own excluding banking would look much worse in all categories.
Better still, Wall Street Journal editorial today, "A JOBS BOTTOM: ANOTHER SIGN THAT A RECOVERY IS COMING". From it:
"Yesterday’s jobs report for July is undeniably good news, even if the economy did shed another quarter-million jobs for the month. The pace of job loss is slowing, confirming the view we expressed after last week’s GDP report that the economy is now poised for a rebound from its fall and winter depths."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204908604574336682882256744.html#mod=todays_us_opinion
Also couple great letters to editor on "High-Frequency Front-Running". Thanks, TD!
And that Guitner comment is scaaaaary, thankful that these numbnuts will smacked down sooner than later (witness town hall outrage).
the townhall outrage is getting staged by republicans, it will change nothing
The all American Louisville Slugger is cheap at twice the price.
agreed - this type of dissension needs to be put down and it perpetrators called to account. What we are seeing is staged and artificial. What we need is non staged outrage.
Hint, hint...
http://www.louisvilleslugger.com/baseball/wood/index.html
Staged?
Those living in the bubble of DC may believe that and they may pass HC "reform". But the townhall outrage will most certainly change the political landscape in 2010.
True that, they pass that thing and the dem (incumbent) majority will evaporate, and Obama will lose to whatever whackjob the reps dredge up in 2012.
re AIG: the same for FNM
http://blogs.reuters.com/commentaries/2009/08/06/the-fannie-mae-sinkhole/
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/problem-bank-list-unofficial.html
oh my is the limit being raised to support more QE? Or to lift the markets to new highs? Or both!
Geithner - "Rather than waste everyones time, lets remove the cap and let the Treasury and Fed manage accordingly..we are smarter than you and the system will be transparent in that the Treasury and Fed will report to each other in a consistent manner. Should anything occur, the Fed is backstopping the Treasury using the shares that already are owned by the DTCC as security"
coming from a guy who thinks paying taxes is just a trifling bore, that's craptastic news.
Timmy!
Thanks for the translation from "Timmay-eze" into "English".... now it is perfectly clear...
Say, tyler honey, when are you going to schedule a ZH happy hou / party at a REAL location. It would be cool to meet fellow guys and gal ZHers. It would also give the black helicopters an easier pick up location.
Thanks babe!
ZH could probably sell tickets to a conference if they could get good non-anon speakers. With maybe ZH calling in via speaker phone, like Howard Hughes did on occassion.
Not sure there is upside for zh otherwise though, unless at some point they give up anonymity and want a networking event where they just invite people that are ultra HNW, pension managers, fund managers, traders, etc.
you are on to something -- but speakers with bags over their heads might be a draw -
such a party would probably be a big time sword fight
The Lost Decade:GDP
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2009/08...
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/andros/2009/0808.html
Let's not forget last year... Phycologically fear will prevail and whether the market desires to move higher or not the mental blaock of fear will prevail. I believe we will pull back 3-5% very soon. So be patient and wait like a cat in the brush, and pounce we the time is right. Rome wasn't built in a day my friends. PS. Sell F, RIMM, and MSFT while you can. LOL
Tyler Durden
Here is something specificaly for you since you became a part of it recently.
Cheeky Bastard, i hope you will be able to read this objecktively, you know a lot from European history
"This is the sign we [scholarly experts who track the growth of fascism] were waiting for -- the one that tells us that yes, kids: we are there now. America's conservative elites have openly thrown in with the country's legions of discontented far right thugs. They have explicitly deputized them and empowered them to act as their enforcement arm on America's streets, sanctioning the physical harassment and intimidation of workers, liberals, and public officials who won't do their political or economic bidding.
This is the catalyzing moment at which honest-to-Hitler fascism begins. It's also our very last chance to stop it."
Whole post can be read here:
http://dneiwert.blogspot.com/2009/08/fascist-america-are-we-there-yet.html
Not being able to finish the reading of the link form tyhe this post proves: Truth Hurts
I want to believe ... but then I have an IQ over 70 and my reading comprehension skills in factual European history are far greater than the blogger you just cited ...
Be gone troll.
Hello Anon
Usually, i would not respond to this post, but since you mentioned me in it i will try to give my most objective view on this matter.
First let me make some historical comparison about how Nazism came to power and how Fascism came to being. After WWI, which was war mainly led by colonial interests ( expansionist war ) European states felt a need for enternal consolidation, and there was a prevalent political movement in many European countries which preached national hermeticism and self-sufficient economies. Mussolini first came into knowledge, that if Italy was to become a highly industrial European society he will need to close it down and take necessary economical ( nationalization of private enterprises for Italy's economical well being) steps and political steps. Clear distinction that separates Fascism from Nazism is not racial purity, but economical advancement. Nazism came as a direct consequence of Germany's economical weakness which was further prolonged when Germany signed the Treaty of Versailles. John Kenneth Galbraith has warned the league of nations that such Treaty would have some future ramifications. As you know after the treaty was enacted and defined that Germany would have to pay 4 billion Marks in gold as a reparation cost for the damage it has done, and that Germany would have to go trough the process of de-militarization, German people became devastated. The region of Ruhr-Westphalia ( which has the largest mineral richness in continental Europe ) was heavily exploited by German industry conglomerates in order to produce enough goods which would then sell, and send almost 90% of the profits to the nations as a reparations for WWI. The hyperinflation in Wiemar Republic came as a direct consequence of those actions.
That has set the first stage for a closed society. Hitler tried to do a coop in 1923, and as you know he has failed.
But, what I see in America bares some resemblance to Germany in the late 20s and early 30s. First of all there was a great consolidation and unification of society when an external threat emerged in 2001. That event made the environment in which some un-constitutional measures were enacted in the name " of being safe ". sociologically, there are two kind of external and internal threats, first one is artificial ( burning down of the Reichstag ) and second one is natural ( 9/11) but they produce the same consequences, and those are that the entity which endures those threats becomes a closed entity, and re-shuffles its political principles in order to preserve itself. Preservation can come from teritorial war expansion ( Germany, Japan ), political expansion ( USSR ) economical expansion ( USA).
the next step is forming of entities and institutions which will preserve and enforce the state of consolidation ( The SS, Homeland Security, KGB ), then the enactment of certain legal structures ( The Act of Racial Purity, Patriot Act ) in order to re-define the legal structure of a nation. Then, in order for the structure to remain consolidated you can either prolong the belief in the strength of the threat, or you can create a new threat. The main goal is to have an ideologically, economically, and culturally closed society ( recent articles mention that national borders have no meaning in this, since the consolidation is mainly based in either economical threat or a archo-political one).
the third visible sign is wiping out all opposition trough either legal measures or by simply discrediting it using propaganda and false information. opposition can be wiped out trough consensus of two o three of the most important parties, trough make it un-lawful trough some political process or simply extinguish it by prosecution.
Next you can have a expansion movement in order to position yourself and have direct longterm access to vital natural resources ( Iraq War, Blitzkrieg, Anexation of Finland ).
Then you evoke false fear, as seen in DDR ( Stasi had records of only 4% of their citizens, but all the population of the DDR thought they were being monitored by their neighbours)
And the final, and the most important phase in closing a society and establishing a totalitarian regime in taking away the right to carry arms.
If you see any steps of that in America you will know what is coming. If they try to take your guns away, and make them not only hard to get, but also illegal ( Germany, DDR, USSR) you will then know that something is up. But don't wait for that, you need to tell people about this kind of things. When i talked to the people who lived in Germany during Hitler years they said that the main thing that enabled Hitler to seize power and transform Germany into a totalitarian structure was the lack of discurs among ordinary people, because they did not know will someone rat on them to the SS, or even who is a spy. Again there are some trend of totalitarianism which emerged in the last 15 yrs but it is not so bad as this blog tries to tell you.
There's a lot of political BS on this site, but this takes the cake.
thank you; i appreciate that you would call Max Horkheimer and most of the late 19th century sociologists morons ... just goes to show your level of education and comprehension of the political reality that surrounds you ...
Since I nowhere mentioned Max Horkheimer, nor called him a moron, your reply is not giving me confidence in your sense of logic or sound judgment. But now that you bring up the Frankfurt School, my skepticism has only increased. Appeals-to-authority type arguments don't impress me much.
I would never presume to question anyone's education or intelligence, only their objectivity and good judgment. FWIW my education was the best there is, if you believe in academic credentials.
my sense of logic is, unfortunately, to good ( my thesis was about Godel and Descartes). And no you didn't mention him by name but with your critic ( which was basically nothing supported with even less arguments ) you have tried to politicized an issue which is not political but sociological. I have done nothing else then transferred sociological theories and made a few examples. I don't base my arguments on " appeal-to-authority" type of validation, i just reach and pick my arguments from the most suitable knowledge source on the topic which i discuss. Now i have no idea why would you call a FACTUAL and historically validated line of thinking BS; that is up to you; but see, the main obstacle in gaining knowledge is not the amount of information you absorb, but the amount of information you comprehend. And remember cognitive hermeticism is never a good thing, especially when there is something important to discuss and to deconstruct.
( and i know why your skepticism siren was screaming BS when i mentioned Horkheimer; but don't discredit the man simply because he shares some Marxist views; it simply fogs the value which is presented in his thought )
I am unclear on how your logic can be too good, rather than merely correct or incorrect. Perhaps you subscribe to a system of non-monotonic logic that I am unfamiliar with. Sorry, there I go again, being cheeky ;-)
My original objection was to your was drawing some comparison between DHS and the SS, and between the Racial Purity Act and the Patriot Act. I have worked in counterterrorism, and the counterterrorism professionals I know bear no resemblance to SS. My father was in the Dutch underground and my uncle was a slave laborer, so I know a bit about the differences. It does not at all follow that I therefore endorse the Patriot Act or that I find no problems with DHS.
I am unclear on how your logic can be too good, rather than merely correct or incorrect. Perhaps you subscribe to a system of non-monotonic logic that I am unfamiliar with. Sorry, there I go again, being cheeky ;-)
/headpalms
i stopped reading after this
anon 30658,
have you actually read the entire Patriot Act? do you realize exactly how little (a misdemeanor) one can be arrested/detained for and subsequently labeled an enemy combatant as a result of that act. you make think that the author of the post making parallels to Germany in the 20s, 30s, and 40s is off his rocker but i suspect that poster has just been doing a much more thorough job of reading than you have.
I kept waiting for the punchline, and there it is:
"the most important phase in closing a society and establishing a totalitarian regime in taking away the right to carry arms."
The myth that the 2nd Amendment provides a meaningful deterrent to Govt action in the 21st Century is hilarious. Waco springs to mind. The Davidians really showed the Feds who's boss, eh?
All the 2nd Amendment does is allow wackos to stroll into an exercise class or an Amish schoolhouse and take a maximum number of innocent lives prior to their own cowardly suicide.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Switzerland#Shelters_and_fortifications
make sure you read with comprehension
You really don't know your history and this ignorance is painfully apparent.
Millions of citizens have been slaughtered like animals in countries around the world in the last century, following anti-gun laws and confiscation. Psychotic egomaniacs are attracted to politics, and like to destroy their opposition in any way they can (press, laws, financial confiscation through taxes, and mass murder - they don't call it that): “All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. Political language... is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.” - George Orwell
The Jews never thought it could happen to them, then the Nazis confiscated guns to ensure there would be no opposition. Aspects of the gun laws in Nazi Germany were actually used almost word for word in implementing the Illinois state FOID card program.
Clearly people on mood medication should not be allowed to own guns, but your statement is a logic fallacy of the part to the whole. He could have done a lot of damage with a knife as well. I feel horrible for those victims, and would love to give up guns if we lived in Utopia - Police Officers will investigate crimes after the fact, but they are not a deterrent because they are not ubiquitous. It would have been better if someone else at the fitness facility had a gun (security guard / metal detector) and could defend themselves and others (this happens a lot more often than the press ever reports - honest citizens guns stop crimes every day). If illegal, only criminals will have them.
As Alexander Tytler observed in 1775 during the Revolutionary War: "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising them the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over a loss of fiscal responsibility, always followed by a dictatorship. The average of the world's great civilizations before they decline has been 200 years. These nations have progressed in this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacency to apathy; from apathy to dependency; from dependency back again to bondage."
It's important to note that every individual, organization, and government is primarily self interested, and those in power want more power - trust in corporations or governments is mis-placed as they will tell you want you want to hear to get what they want (and they are not Santa Claus and they don't really care about you - be self reliant, and avoid dependency which above comes before a dictatorship). If the populace was armed there could be a threat to government if it over-reached and a balance of power (that's why we have that amendment) - it would have saved many lives if Hitler had simply been knocked off.
In France, the government fears the people, in the US the people fear the government. A government big enough to give you all you want is strong enough to take everything you have… -- Thomas Jefferson
Cheeky - I liked your perspective.
It's leftist union thugs beating dissenting voices up at those rallies, dipshit.
this is the best set of books ever written about the Third Reich, and it will help you with your comparison of the post-modern American Society .... you can download by clicking on this link ... http://www.vertor.com/torrents/657001/Rise-and-Fall-of-the-Third-Reich
I'm going to assume you're genuinely interested in the subject of fascism. If you are you should really know the whole story. It might help break you away from the historical indoctrination you've been fed thus far.
You are right in a sense that America has stayed into fascism, only it happened a long time ago.
In addition to Cheeky Bastard's recommendation to read the "Rise and Fall of the Third Reich", please read this:
http://mises.org/books/aswegomarching.pdf
Here you will find the proper distinction between three different types of fascism in the 20th century, and also that America systemically operates within the purview of so-called "good fascism" to this day both Republican and Democrat.
thank you for the link ( although it was not meant for me ) .... truly a valuable read ..
cb,
still reading the pdf from the poster immediately before you. i found this passage to resonate strongly with other information currently available to the public (via the Web mind you). The quote is regarding the US economy.
"Before 1914 public spending of borrowed money was a negligible feature of our economy."
And what was created in 1914? The Federal Reserve Bank. Coincidence? The body of information/evidence speaks strongly to the creation of the Fed and the quote above being more than harmless coincidence.
so, from my point of view, Ben Bernanke is not a moron. he knows EXACTLY what he is doing. that is truly disturbing to me.
New to the site and this has opened my eyes to a whole new world. Being someone who has worked in the industry for the last 5 years (4 on a trading desk at a private firm), it has taken me a long time to figure out that this "market" has been manipulated by the powers that be. Thank you TD for the information.
ps: i have seen some people on here bash tech ticker (and rightfully so), but if it were not for someone posting this website on tt i would have never found it.
btw how do you post a profit when you are on the hook for $180 bil?
"btw how do you post a profit when you are on the hook for $180 bil? "
Do not know...
So what is the punchline?
Damn I am bad at jokes ... will try one..
What does CA stand for in accountants lingo?
Creative Accounting ...
step 1 collect underpants
step 2 ????
step 3 profit
OPERATING profits. Duh! Just like Citigroup. The most soundest wellest capitalizedist bank on the planet. They had a 4 billion dollar operating surplus. What a country! When you like to make it sound good, quote the operating 'profit.' When you want to trash a company say 'Oh shit, that's not taking into account all the items!' And even better, when we want green shoots, talk about month to month, but when we need to make sure that people don't get too freaky, make sure you remind them that we only really care about year on year. Heads I win, tails it sounds like I win!
Step 1. Have the President sign an executive order in 2006 allowing companies an exception to reporting GAAP.
Step 2. Pressure the head of the FASB to change accounting rules from mark to market to mark to your own fairytale model.
Step 3. Ensure many derivative instruments on your books to ensure you are too big to fail, and swap derivatives and assets with other banks to trade revenues and profits back and forth.
Step 4. Call up friends in the government to socialize losses and privatize gains with taxpayer backstops.
Step 5. Borrow from the fed at 0% interest and deposit the same money just lent back with the fed to receive interest. Read that again.
Step 6. Don't write down your bad loans, delay foreclosures to avoid doing so, and then release the REO's slowly on the market to avoid dropping prices (supply) with losses.
Step 7. Leverage up acting as a hedge fund, buy up stocks and commodities to try and jump start inflation and also manipulate stock prices up or down to try to trigger profits in swap derivatives (i.e. UBS swaps on SRS - pump REITS)
Assuming you know the difference between the Income Statement and Balance Sheet.
Kunstler's latest, The Fog of Numbers, is another good read
http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/08/the-fog-of-numbers.html#more
Thanks... love reading him... didn't know he had something new on his site...
I love Kuntsler's way with words.
The Comstock piece nails it !
Long and averaging down from $140 = priceless
Chimming in on this...Charlie Minter and now gone Stan S were great reads in their day. They were the ZH of their day. I actually owned the fund and sad to say poor preformance. Great meta-thoughts that were like Prechter unapplicable more than often than not. Still they were right in a way. Just no way to apply except constant cash etc...
Hey Anonomous # 30380. Thanks for the list. ZH was using that fuzzy math stuff to slow down my access to the blog. Now my stupidy shall rain on the ZH world in an ever increasing volume. Can your program also correlate the amount of money I have lost on women in the past 30 years to the number of fools who think the worst is over?
A must watch interview of Bill Black at the UCLA Hammer Forum:
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2009/08/great-american-bank-...
"Psychopaths often violate social norms, are manipulative, ...". Well, the type of people behind the mechanisms William Black discusses certainly don't fit that description. Oh, no. 'Leadership', 'rectitude', these are terms befitting these people. The Great Heist.
"Totally unrelated - psychopaths have faulty brain connections, scientists say (Reuters)" or is it totally unrelated?
The researchers of this study need to hang around Capital Hill, and 85 Broad Street, and try to get a few of the people getting out of limousines to participate in order to increase their population!
Since the beginning of '08, over 90 bank failures at a cost of $32 bil to the FDIC. 550 mil for 8 new private jets for our congress. Almost 17% true unemployment (U6). Trillions in debt. Health care soon. Cap & Trade early 2010. And all talking heads can say is "Bull Market, get in now".
Question for anybody: Are all talking heads completely ignorant, or are they in on the take (aka GS whores)?
When was the last time a request to raise the debt limit was denied? If never, then why bother having a "limit" at all?
Because, setting limits indicates that there is a mature and responsible organization engaged on the scene. Leadership.
Come one now, the wizard only has magic if he stays behind the curtain.
The blogosphere is killing its credibility with this "accounting voodoo" shit. Cite that comment from Liddy, then leave out the part in the 10-Q that says:
"In April 2009, the FASB issued FSP FAS 157-4, “Determining Fair Value When the Volume and Level of Activity for the Asset or Liability Have Significantly Decreased and Identifying Transactions That Are Not Orderly” (FSP FAS 157-4). FSP FAS 157-4 provides guidance for estimating fair value in accordance with FAS No. 157, “Fair Value Measurements” (FAS 157), when the volume and level of activity for an asset or liability have significantly decreased and for identifying circumstances that indicate a transaction is not orderly. FSP FAS 157-4 also requires extensive additional fair value disclosures. The adoption of FSP FAS 157-4 on April 1, 2009, did not have a material effect on AIG’s consolidated financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. See Note 4, Fair Value Measurements for the disclosures related to FSP FAS 157-4."
So that much ballyhood stripping of fair value accounting? Not so much. Like, none at all. I guarantee you that you cannot find a single 8K or Q that states anything but exactly the same thing, BECAUSE IT DID NOT FUCKING CHANGE ANYTHING.
As far as the other change, FSP 115-2, all I have to say is, are you for serious? Anyone who has passed CFA L1 or just even taken a fucking intermediate accounting class can easily recognize moving a loss from NI to AOCI. The losses are still there, they're just in a different place. Why are you looking at the I/S instead of the B/S in the first place? This is not rocket science, there has been no effect from these "changes."
I guess that
is why the banks spent millions on lobby money to get the accounting rule changed and one of the heads of FASEB resigned in disgust because the rule was removed. Because it doesn't matter. I hate when someone makes a statement that all available evidence points in the other direction. Why don't you go hang out with your wall street friends!!
they are spending even more effort attempting to reverse the FASB ruling that will force takeback of spv/siv assets to the balance sheet commencing in 2010 (January, I think). The ruling is already in place and they are trying to undo it....this is one battle that is worth keeping an eye on.
as someone else stated, FASB is pissed over what happened on 157 and from my reading wants to reverse it and make it more stringent.
I think you are wrong here. The adoption of those accounting changes and clarifications by the FASB did have an impact on company accounting.
From http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/13325602 :
So there is considerable room for mangers' discretion and that's the problem. You shouldn't really have to rely on confidence in Liddy or anyone else at this point. Accounting is thought to provide objectivity, and the changes don't serve that purpose.
Besides the FASB seems to have second thoughts about those changes:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a5BsXz90CMso
Anybody can listen to the FASB board mtgs where they discuss this (I don't have the link, Google it). The most recent one was Wednesday August 5th. You can listen to the audio.
It is hard to follow but it sounds like they will be reversing, and even making tougher, valuation rules for RMBS, CMBS, CDS, off balance sheet items, etc. They are also setting rules for increasing loss reserves.
It sounded like they were ready to approve the rule changes last Wednesday but wanted some language clarified.
I wonder if the financials spike was an incorrect interpretation of the vote not happening on Wednesday. The spike happened late morning right when this meeting ended.
The next meeting is August 12th.
Jonathan Weil from B'berg has been covering this
zpf how do you do that fancy quoting? Thanks...
Then if it didn't change anything... then why did they have to change it in the first place... and hold congressional hearings over the entire matter.... it must have changed something :-)
I TOLD you, only Rahm is supposed to use the F-word here.
Fuck Rahm, fucking ballerina codpiece wearing fuck.
fear not
Any and all eronneous posts need to be brought to the attention of the White House as per these instructions:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/Facts-Are-Stubborn-Things/
to this address:
flag@whitehouse.gov
related reading:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/08/08/IN94194BCD.DTL
I feel like beating my head against the wall after reading that Geithner quote.
"This is the sign we [scholarly experts who track the growth of fascism] were waiting for -- the one that tells us that yes, kids: we are there now. America's conservative elites have openly thrown in with the country's legions of discontented far right thugs. They have explicitly deputized them and empowered them to act as their enforcement arm on America's streets, sanctioning the physical harassment and intimidation of workers, liberals, and public officials who won't do their political or economic bidding.
This is the catalyzing moment at which honest-to-Hitler fascism begins. It's also our very last chance to stop it."
Whole post can be read here:
>http://dneiwert.blogspot.com/2009/08/fascist-america-are-we-there-yet.ht...
TD,
Please bring back a calc-based captcha so retards like this can't post on every 5th comment thread.
Thanks.
sometimes I think freep and DU constantly link to this site, the crazies surround us!!@!
Any chance this won't pass the Congress?
No.
Thank you for that wonderful in my face bluntness.
Folks, I urge you to srite your congress person and tell them not to increase the debt limits. I also sent him data showing how the fed is pouring billions and billions into the stock market and that I want that stopped. we don't need to increase out denbt limit to bail them out and destroy the dollar.
Main point. If you are unhappy with debt limit, write your congressman, or get tyler to put up an ipetition to sign and send to congress.
how about both?
"Folks, I urge you to srite your congress person and tell them not to increase the debt limits."
This has been discussed before, it has been tried and proven to fail, if you need exercises in futility, why not just make stock picks based on fundementals....
Write your congressman?
Nice try.
Try to voice your opinion or ask a question at a townhall and you are dismissed as a crazy like this guy
http://www.11alive.com/video/?maven_playerId=immersiveplayer3&maven_refe...
Do you think anyone on staff will actually read your letter?
the letter will be read. but the motives for reading the letter will be far from what the letter-writer intended.
TD, you missed commentary on the last but most important bullet of news, to wit:
Helicopter hits small plane near New York
Said helicopter was full to the brim with bearer bonds, heading over to 85 Broad. Piloted by some dude named Ben.
I just saw a huge sign of recovery (sarc.) In S. Cali the number of NOD (notes of default) is going up while the number of foreclosures seems to be constant. Looks like one hell of a green shoot.
Hey! It looks like someone installed a restrictor plate just before the canooter valve, there!
There is a 3 month moratorium on foreclosures in California, started mid June methinks...
Byebye Lehman Hello AIG
Here ya go, you may want to add this to your Saturday reading list. Just out from Gretchen M, Paulson was issued 2 Conflict of Interest waivers on Sept. 17
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/09/business/09paulson.html?_r=1&hp
24 phone calls to Lloyd Blankfein in 5 days. Who was taking orders from who? It's outrageous, egregious, preposterous.
“I have determined that the magnitude of the government’s interest in your participation in matters that might affect or involve Goldman Sachs clearly outweighs the concern that your participation may cause a reasonable person to question the integrity of the government’s programs and operations.”
From the NYT article:
"On Sept. 17, the day Mr. Paulson secured his waivers (ethics waivers to deal with his old firm), he and Mr. Blankfein spoke five times. Two of the calls occurred before Mr. Paulson’s waivers were granted.
Michele Davis, a spokeswoman for Mr. Paulson, said that the former Treasury secretary was busy writing his memoirs and that his publisher had barred him from granting interviews until his manuscript was done. She pointed out that the ethics agreement Mr. Paulson agreed to when he joined the Treasury did not prevent him from talking to Goldman executives like Mr. Blankfein in order to keep abreast of market developments."
Nice to see that in such REALLY important matters as the ethics between an author and his publisher, Paulson is "by the book". It's truly humbling. Integrity thy name is Hank.
Can another 20% down day, a la 10-19-87, happen again? Can there be a day of collective recognition that things have gone crazy, sending everyone to the door at the same time? The odds are long, but if the market has taught us anything in the last two years, it is that the unthinkable should have been thought of (BSC, AIG, LEH, GM, FNM, Iceland, Madoff, $147 oil, $34 oil, July 2008 bank stock day, etc.).
One can even sense a bit of creeping apprehension this weekend as folks consider the market's reaction to "only" 247, 000 job losses and the subsequent "proof" that the economy is recovering (conveniently ignoring retail sales numbers in this 70% consumer driven economy). The more rational among the investing population are casting glances at other market participants as if to ask, "it's really going to be all okay, right....I mean the slowing pace of decline REALLY IS a positive, isn't it?"
If a few heavily invested folks decide "I think I'll just a little money off the table; it's been a great run after all, so why not book some gains", that would be okay. If a lot of folks come to the same view, we could have a rout.
If folks start to consider what has happened this past week or two---an increasing amount of the market's attention---and money---has gone into the market's dogs (C, BAC, AIG, CIT, FNM, etc.)---and then considers that C and BAC rolled over on Friday (with C trading just shy of 2 billion shares), maybe some will see cause for caution.
The market tops when the last buyer has bought, or the last fool has joined the party. It is one of the laws of physics, Newton's Fifth I believe, that says that the more folks who walk into a room, the smaller the exit door becomes.
Markets also often move in ways that damage the greatest number of people, which is just another way of saying the above. Consensus, from what I can gather in an admittedly unscientific manner, is of two schools: no chance for a pullback because everyone is expecting a pullback, or a decent 5-10% pullback followed by a move to higher highs. Even a melt up has a following, though much smaller than the other two views.
What has almost no following, other than Nassim Taleb perhaps, is a 20% one day rout. No doubt that is for very good reasons, as the "authorities" would act to prevent it, or there are "too many sideline buyers waiting to come in".
That's good. I feel a whole lot better.
chindit...seems to me you expressed what many folks think at this time.
certainly it is possible that folks start heading to the doors at the same time giving rise to an accelerated selling scenario. i happen to think this is a very plausible option.
as to the one day meltdown, hell yes it can happen again. there are several "geopolitical" potentials that could trigger this.
Yup. Like KD asks, what happens if another BIG FISH bites it? Me is very nervous about the "trapdoor" being sprung at the most inopportune time.....cash is trash but better than nothing.
I don't want to sound more sure than I am or try to sound unduly authoritative but I just have a sneaking suspicion deep in my gut that the market will go limit down august 16th to 18th.
Now the following applies to the health care debate but I am wondering if it will spread to discussions on the economy:
From the White House website:
"There is a lot of disinformation about health insurance reform out there, spanning from control of personal finances to end of life care. These rumors often travel just below the surface via chain emails or through casual conversation. Since we can’t keep track of all of them here at the White House, we’re asking for your help. If you get an email or see something on the web about health insurance reform that seems fishy, send it to flag@whitehouse.gov."
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/Facts-Are-Stubborn-Things/
If you passed reading comprehenssion in your education you would be able to recognise that this is about gathering missinformations against reform.
It is not, i repeat, it is not gathering informations about people/ disidents.
Again, this is about gathering missinformations not about people. Your inferiority complex shows.
If you ever tried to forward an email you would know that.
Yea right...ok..... thanks for clearing that up for us #30438.
"MARK IT ZERO, DUDE"
"MARK IT ZERO, DUDE"
That's the best movie ever. Just watched it again the other evening.
Unfortunately, your misinformation is another person's factual belief... and it would be helpful if email and IP addresses were not part of the information gathering... but they are by default... but I will stop here because I think we exhausted ourselves the other night on this topic.
Other night was just bowing to the king (TD) or GOP. Toal lack of objective thinking.
I thought TD was the king... I must have been "misinformed" :-)
"Unfortunately, your misinformation is another person's factual belief.."
LOL WHAT
Let me clarify for you...
For Obama to say that many have been "misinformed" about Health Care Reform, is an insult to people who believe that he is going about it the wrong way. It's like saying because you don't believe the same way I do, then you are "misinformed"... so let me help you become better informed by setting up a website so I can track down all the misinformation and misinformers... and everyone can then become as informed as I.
For example in making "end-of-life counseling" available through Medicare... if you believe it is "right" and the opposition doesn't agree with you then according to Obama they have been the recipients of "misinformation"... rather than simply having a "factual belief" that it is inherently wrong. Whether it is "misinformation" or "factual belief" is simply in the eye of the beholder. I don't have a position either way and sit on the fence on this one... and I give and vote for both political parties.
Hope that helps... but you can still LOL if you want :-)
No need to gather information --- already done.
http://www.eff.org/issues/nsa-spying
Thank god for AT&T... at least all of the misinformation will be captured in an efficient way...
Like This?
"An outstanding piece on health care entitled “Utopia vs. Freedom” outlines that health care reform is actually a choice between freedom and slavery; many of the thoughts which should be part of the debate are presented:
In some excellent work done BEFORE it was taken from public view, here are some of the NASTY details from a doctor in Florida:
Page 16: A provision making INDIVIDUAL private Medical insurance illegal
Page 22: Mandates audits of all employers that self-insure!
Page 29: Admission: your health care will be rationed!
Page 30: A government committee will decide what treatments and benefits you get (and, unlike an insurer, there will be no appeals process)
Page 42: The "Health Choices Commissioner" will decide health benefits for you. You will have no choice. None.
Page 50: All non-US citizens, illegal or not, will be provided with free healthcare services.
Page 58: Every person will be issued a National ID Health Card.
Page 59: The federal government will have direct, real-time access to all individual bank accounts for electronic funds transfer."
It's either true or it is not.
So, what the hell is the point of even having the debt cap if it just gets raised every fiscal quarter?
Swine flu will be the catalyst to send us down. Sep/Oct is looking probable.
Swine Flu is the back up plan - Right now Hail Mary is going on - If that doesn't cut it, then Operation Swine Flu will go into effect. Note that the vaccines are getting ready to be deployed in second week of October. The vaccinations will be organized in schools. If there is an outbreak in the last 3 weeks of september public services including banks can be closed down if needed.
It is clear that stock market is going to do very well in the coming months. Enough momentum has been created for common folks to start thinking that it is the right place to put money. And the earnings of big corporations are going to come in positive to keep that going. They were able to shed so many jobs - that is going to reflect in the bottom lines. But the jobs shed are not coming back - it is being replaces by cheap labor overseas. So american companies can further sell goods at american prices at third world costs with more profits. What puzzles me in the equation is how they will sell at american prices when americans cannot borrow anymore to buy these things ? The missing link in the ecomoronic re-engineering is that nothing has been done to increase the spending power - Will the banks start loosening credit soon ? Dude, Where is my credit bubble ?
"It is critically important that Congress act before the limit is reached so that citizens and investors here and around the world can remain confident that the United States will always meet its obligations ... Timmy"
So we will get our debt at 100% of GDP by the end of this year
The US savings rate is seriously flawed. The methodology and figures fail to count stock holdings as well as the value of homes owned.
that's the same argument Maria B made when it went negative at the top of the real estae market when consumers were spending more than they made - it doesn't measure aggregate savings, it measures monthly consumption v savings of disposable income
what you are talking about is household net worth which includes assets and is a different statistic - btw it has declined by $12t (20%) yoy, the largest amount of annual wealth destruction since WWII by 10x
This is true. Our houses are only really worth what we can sell them for. Liquidity and price fluctuation will always be a factor.
BTW, It is quite a large number, the recent YOY percentage wealth destruction, but how much has the economy grown since WWII?
As to stocks and their collective value as far as the formula measuring the nation's savings rate, and what is counted and what is not. Millions of people including the likes of Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are absolute pikers when it comes to their "savings".
"Our houses are only really worth what we can sell them for"
Oh, that you could be a bank able to avoid marking to market!
Funny, the banks lobby so hard to change FASB 157 "because of temporary valuation distortions". I suggest you take that line down to BOA and apply for a nice big 2007-style HELOC, even quoting Ken Lewis re FASB 157 to do it.
yup. other than the end of 2005-6, houses are always quite illiquid.
just a way to prepay rent.
unless of course, one owns rentals as a business. which is something most homeowners do not.
No problem for continued QE and deficits....Hillary just said the Chinese are pretty much, you know, kinda, like, umm, "reassured".
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20090808/us-us-china/
Why do I feel that the RC are laughing up their sleeves at Dearest Leader and the drones. Aren't these the people who wrote the Art of War, oh about 2K ago??
"Totally unrelated." LMFAO!
Say it, Tyler, Just say it!
This was brought up below definitely something that should be read.......
The calls between Mr. Paulson and Mr. Blankfein, especially those surrounding the A.I.G. bailout, are disturbing to Samuel L. Hayes, a professor emeritus at Harvard Business School and a consultant in the past for government agencies, including the Treasury Department
“We don’t know what they talked about,” Mr. Hayes said. “Obviously there was an enormous amount at stake for Goldman in whether or not the A.I.G. contracts would be made whole. So I think the burden is now on Mr. Paulson to demonstrate that there was no exchange of information one way or the other that influenced the ultimate decision of the government to essentially provide a blank check for A.I.G.’s contracts.”
Paulson’s Calls to Goldman Tested Ethics During Crisis
http://tinyurl.com/n3wemv
Will they respond?
We hear such talk because it is based on truth, perhaps not all of it, but enough to cause fair-minded people to sit back and say that things must change. The facts are that it is not the market’s job to support the $USD vs the Euro. It’s also not fair that our orders in the market are processed by traders who use that knowledge to trade against us, and we have no knowledge of their orders, just like we have no knowledge of the government’s orders like they do. It is really not fair that those traders use our capital to trade against us, and we have no access to their capital, so they don’t take the risk we do. Clearly, none of this is fair and yet our elected representatives condone it, and continue to put in place mechanisms to ensure the status quo.
http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commentary-community-chat-saturda...
The reality of the matter is that all it takes is one phone call to pass on inside information .
Nah... I'm sure they were just discussing golf, weather and hookers.
Mauibear's charts:
We hit the 38% retracement exactly.
Mauibear's Chart
Tom O'Brien at tfnn.com is extremely bearish, says a crash is imminent. Listen here:
Tom O 'Brien's Friday Podcast
Comstock are good guys with good insight. Since debt is money, then they are right that deleveraging is bad for USA.
The Japan thing is iffy for many reasons that everyone knows. Different kind of national balance sheet is the most pertinent imo.
Steve Saville wrote a piece about velocity that i agree with. Not sure about proportion, but increases of velocity seem to correlate with increased speculation. Makes sense intuitively too:)
40muleteam borax
wow.. a bit off topic, but good weekend reading..let's see how the main stream media and what the government does now that Sibel Edmonds has testiied under oath.
http://www.bradblog.com/
Something continues to be very wrong... we are creating no solid foundation with all of the stimulus money... it is an illusion... but yet the national debt level that we are accelerating is very real.
Examples:
Surfing through the information out there on the Cash for Clunkers program... and they featured an 'unemployed' couple who just purchased a 'new vehicle' despite the fact they had no income... sounds very reminiscent of what brought about the housing crisis... I wonder what the lending standards are that are being used by some of the TARP recipients who are writing the car loans.
Just re-financed my house... I just wanted a standard re-fi... she said that I qualified under one of the Obama plans... I thought with my income, assets, and house value how would that even be remotely possible... then they asked for nothing to prove that I had any source of income... and I repeat again... NOTHING... I could have been unemployed for all they knew or cared... this loan was a conventional loan with the best credit...
This is all going to end very badly.