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Save The World?
It was a gorgeous day in Montreal so I spent the afternoon swimming and
tanning while listening to my tunes. But I did manage to hook up with a
buddy of mine who flew in to close the sale of his house and visit
friends.
My buddy is smart and has extensive operational experience
across manufacturing and the financial industry, most recently managing a
major infrastructure project in Greece which went sour following the
crisis. He has been extremely negative on Greece over the last three
years to the point where he got on my nerves several times. But in the
end he was right, Greece is a basket case and the bailout won't work.
Below,
I'll share with you topics from our interesting conversation on
blogging, bankers and regulation, BRICs, deflation, oil, Greece, the
Greek bailout, ratings agencies, Canada, and lots more:
- On blogging:
We began by discussing some of my recent posts. My buddy detected "lots
of anger" in them and told me that I can be more effective by making my
points "more subtly." He added: "I don't care about the Caisse or PSP,
but you don't need to be venomous and you won't change the way they
conduct business. What are you trying to get out of this?" Told him that
I've said everything I've had to say about the Caisse and SARA Fund,
will try to be more constructive, giving these pension funds the
"benefit of the doubt," but I'm flabbergasted when senior public pension
fund managers tell me "they're only accountable to their depositors and
not the public." That just doesn't sit well with me and one of the
reasons I started this blog was because I got fired October 2006 after predicting the
2008 credit crisis for being "too negative" and wanted to sound the
alarm on the pension crisis. So, to all pension funds, I'm going to
remain fair and professional, but don't expect me to only send flowers
your way. - On bankers and the need for regulation: My
buddy is a lot more hopeful than I am that regulation will finally hit
Wall street hard. He said that senior management at BNP Paribas and
SocGen was quietly changed following the 2008 crisis and "it's only a
matter of time before the guys in Wall Street get their due. They gotten
away with shenanigans long enough." His former boss once told him the
story about bankers who went to see Louis the XIV to tell him France was
bankrupt and he couldn't save it. "The bankers all got the guillotine." I
remain skeptical that better financial regulation is on its way and
told my buddy: "they had the perfect opportunity to introduce meaningful
reforms following the crisis and as usual, they pandered to the bankers
and bungled it up." - On BRICs:
We didn't go over all the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, China, India, and
China) but we spoke at length about China. Just like Paul Beattie, who
thinks phosphate will be Canada's next Potash,
my buddy agrees China will continue to grow exponentially in the coming
decades. "Unlike Russia which got its freedom and is now effectively a
lawless country run by mafiosos and oligarchs, or India where class
warfare is getting worse, the Chinese model is focusing on developing
the middle class and slowly nurturing in democracy. China is still a
communist country with a huge military, but their leaders know what
they're doing and won't repeat the mistakes of Russia or India." - On oil, interest rates, and the risk of deflation: While
my buddy agrees with Paul Beattie that China will continue to grow
strongly over the next decades, he isn't sold on higher oil prices or
higher interest rates: "It's not about supply and demand. The Saudis
created the 82 recession, they're not going to repeat the same mistake.
In Greece, right after the government foolishly introduced the petrol
tax, our revenues on the highway project plummeted because people
stopped driving. People will adapt to higher oil prices and that's why I
don't buy that oil will skyrocket or that interest rates are heading
higher. The real danger remains deflation." - On the next financial crisis:
While my buddy is bullish on China and relatively bullish on Canada
(see below), he sees the next crisis and thinks "it will be much worse
than 2008." he added: "In the past, we had a hit to incomes, in the last
crisis, a hit to balance sheets, the next one will be a hit to both
incomes and balance sheets. It won't be a Depression but it's going to
be ugly, especially in Greece." - On the Greek tragedy: My buddy wasn't surprised that the Greek government passed the austerity bill following the showdown at Syntagma.
He said things will calm down over the summer but get much worse next
winter: "Unemployed Athenians will flock to the islands desperately
seeking any job related to tourism, they'll party, drink up, get laid,
but once the summer is over, they'll return to Athens and realize that
reality bites. Once winter sets in and the weather gets worse, emotions
will boil over again in March." I asked him what was the government
suppose to do, not pass the bill and set Greece back 100 years? His
response: "Well now they set Greece back 5,000 years and only prolonging
the agony. If Papandreou had any sense, and did the right thing for the
country and the people, he would have just defaulted, gone
back to the drachma and let the German and French banks take a
substantial haircut (others agree, Greece should default). Instead, he signed a deal with the French, the
Germans followed, but Greece is worse off and they will realize that
they will never balance the budget with severe austerity measures. It's a
fucking disaster and it will only get worse. Partisan politics
destroyed Greece. I think Greeks will castrate all the Greek politicians
who raped and pillaged the country over the last decades. They came
close to it last week and next time they'll succeed." - On the real reason behind the Greek bailout:
My buddy thinks the real reason behind the Greek bailout was to buy
time for French and German banks to clean up their balance sheets.
"They're worried about what comes after Greece, Portugal or Spain? This
thing can easily spiral out of control." Moreover, he added: "I suspect
that French and German pension funds are loaded up with Greek CDS, and
this is the real reason behind the bailout." - On the incompetence and fraudulent activities of ratings agencies:
My buddy and I agree on this point, ratings agencies are a joke. He
didn't mince his words: "They should be shut down. Period. They're
grossly incompetent and the timing of their announcements tells me
they're in cahoots with Wall Street and hedge funds. In your last post
you said Ed Clark, President and CEO of TD Bank is one of the smartest
people in the Canadian financial industry. Want to know why? He doesn't
trust ratings agencies and has his bankers do their own due diligence
rating paper, which is why TD didn't touch ABCP." It looks like the
ratings agencies are up to no good again, trying to wreck the Greek rescue. - On Canada and Canadian politics: My
buddy thinks Canada is "selling its resources cheap" and that the
current taxes benefit Alberta but not the rest of Canada. "Alberta
should understand more than anyone about interprovincial transfers." As
far as Prime Minister Harper is concerned, my buddy thinks "he's
basically a dictator and the country is split under his leadership
because of the effects of partisan politics." I wrote an open letter to our PM
criticizing central control, but also praising him on some initiatives.
As far as Vancouver real estate, my buddy thinks it will continue going
higher but sections are becoming "ghettos of Chinese." I asked him if
he'd like to come back to Quebec, and he said "yes but there are too
many vowels in my name." I shared with him the time I went to interview
for a job at Hydro Quebec and the manager showed me an org chart of his
team and told me: "you see, I got no ethnics working for me." I told
him: "thanks for wasting my time, this interview is over." (Quebec's
institutions have done the bare minimum at integrating minorities at all
levels, it's truly scandalous!) - On asset gatherers vs money managers:
I told my buddy that I couldn't believe Eric Sprott's fund is now at
$10 billion. He told me he's not surprised: "These big funds have an
army of salespeople, they're basically marketing machines. Same thing
happened to Altamira and Frank Mersh. That's why I don't believe in
alpha in money management and think most hedge funds are poor
performers. I have a lot more respect for a guy like Tim Barakett of
Atticus who shut his fund down
once his model didn't work anymore and realized he wasn't going to
deliver alpha than large asset gatherers who focus on collecting management
fees, so he returned the money to investors." Can't argue with him there but mutual funds are even worse. - On my horoscope: I
downloaded this horoscope app on my BlackBerry a while back (don't ask!)
and been sort of hooked on it, mostly to entertain myself. Today's horo
reads: "You have proven someone wrong, Taurus. Someone in your life has
repeatedly claimed that some interest of yours - a goal, a love
relationship, or some important personal pursuit - would not last. And
yet it has. But whatever it is, you
need to examine whether it has lasted because it is truly close to your
heart and a source of passion for you - or you have maintained it
simply to prove someone else wrong. You don't like it when
others claim to know more about you than you know about yourself - most
people don't of course. But you take it more personally. Assess what
has lasted, and decide if it should continue or not - but for the right
reasons."
What does my horoscope have to do with saving the
world? What does any of this have to do with saving the world? Beats me,
but I'm hooked on this song from Swedish House Mafia, Save the World
(see video below), and maybe it will come to me tonight as I drink it up
with my buddies and enjoy the rest of this beautiful day. In the
meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend, and let's all do our part,
however small, to save this world. It's the only one we got and the only one we'll leave to future generations (after watching 60 Minutes, I recommend you donate to The Global Medical Relief Fund).
»
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Ratings agencies and regulations are useless when manipulated and not enforced.
The only real control is the hard cold fact of CONSEQUENCES FOR CHOICES.
The banks did not want the consequences to come home to roost, so they pushed them onto the populace, so of course there were riots, there should be many more. This weekend of peace means nothing, and your friend is right - the consequences will happen sooner or later and not in peaceful riots or politics or committee but in blood.
The forces of nature cannot be contained, and sooner or later all of our human bargaining and enabling and economic witchcraft will become bloodshed and misery.
We have built layers of complexity into everything we do whereby consequences can be avoided. Lawyers, politicians, pensions, funds, annuities, handcuffs and tazers and swat teams; wow, what a civilized world.
All that civilization used as a bludgeon from a distance, a shadow tyranny, a polite mugging. No less brutal than beating an old woman for her purse and sack of groceries, just dressed up in robes and suits and ties and uniforms and codified - absolved of humanity as the great beast of avoiding consequences or laying them upon another is pushed through the system, layer by layer, rewarding injustice and making a mockery of the rule of law.
Go see the lovely doctor in their clean sterilized room and robe in the hospital run by the corporation; it will cost you your home if you actually have something you need help with.
Save for thirty years, pay taxes for thirty years, so that banks and government can pull the rug out from under you and change the terms.
There will be commercials about reverse mortgages, supplemental insurance, non-stop commercials spending policyholders premiums to sell more insurance (that is mandatory to own BTW). Brilliant. Consume. Consume more. We need more consumption to feed the beast. Advertise. Advertise more. We need more. More means debt. Gamble on the debt. When you lose, socialize the losses so you can keep the beast alive, create more debt, advertise about how good that bank that got bailed out on your back is - how much they care about you.
Your old car is not good enough, is not new enough, doesn't get as good mileage as a new hybrid, so buy the hybrid and send your clunker to the landfill to "save the planet" and as you plug it into the coal fired electrical outlet sit by the fire of your new-found self-esteem with the glow of your disposable smart phone toy made by slave labor in China as you watch the lives of everyone else and yourself in narcissistic glory.
The CONSEQUENCES, the physical manifestation of choices and actions delayed, funneled, mis-routed, diverted, forestalled will come; they will crash through our lives like a wall of water and we will wonder from whence they came.
It came from bullshit, from lies, from theorems and formulas, from thoughts and choices that avoided the consequences, dodged responsibility, standardized and given the baptism of the church of the culture of collective disconnect from reality, stamped by the professional equivocators and sophists of politics and banking - and gurgled and guzzled by the propaganda entranced consumption zombie populace.
The CONSEQUENCES will be physical, harsh, cold, and deadly; we must understand they come from not connecting individual CHOICE to the CONSEQUENCE those who made the choices.
Bankers and politicians who committed these deeds should be in prison or executed for treason. People who did not pay and were not deceived should be foreclosed and bankrupted. People who were responsible and saved and paid and obeyed the rule of law should be redeemed and never, ever have the word "austerity" even whispered to them by the howling rank baboons in wool suits and skirts that have robbed a lifetime of work.
Anything less than this will not work except to forestall the consequences that will fall upon the innocent and the wicked alike.
Men are always more than willing to believe the Lies . They scratche the itching ears. Give hope where there is none .
If this guy thinks alberta is selling oil to cheap then he should see how much the average wroker gets paid. Nobody will lift a finger, not even an 18 year old, for less then $100,000 a year.
As someone who lives smack dab in the middle of Alberta, I can say that you sir are full of shit. That's just the line the media parrots squawk so they can bring in Filipino/Chinese labour. I know many people who are un/underemployed.
And now a sardonic word from our quintessential sponsor, Akak.......
See above.
Well written Leo. My only... itch is that people who are... realistic about China nonetheless seem too sanguine about that country.
Keep posting, please
Leo
Agree with much of your buddies views but here's the talking points for the Pub (strange conflict creates conversation, agreement kills it: blame God for this grand/perverse design) ;
"My buddy is a lot more hopeful than I am that regulation will hit Wall street hard... they had the perfect opportunity to introduce meaningful reforms following the crisis and as usual... bungled it."
Has the Law on Murder (ever) stopped murder? The Law on Fraud (ever) stopped fraud? Have any of the 360 financial regulators in 360 countries (ever) done their job? What straw is your Bud' grasping at when he thinks new regulations will (ever) work?
"China is still a communist country with a huge military, but their leaders know what they're doing and won't repeat the mistakes of Russia or India."
So the Chinese Govt, typical of all and every Govt mal-investing in building empty towns, empty shopping malls, bankrupt railway systems, roads to nowhere and of course propping up bankrupt green energy projects is going to really come through right? One of the most corrupt Govts in the world (estimates are 90% of luxury goods sold in China are for Govt bribes) is going to manage "Change You Can Believe In" yes???
"..the next one (economic crisis) will be a hit to both incomes and balance sheets. It won't be a Depression but it's going to be ugly, especially in Greece."
The private sector has ridden the recession pretty well (bankruptcies aside!) reacting fast to the events of 2007-08, their balance sheets/profits have largely recovered to a point. The next hit will be to the public sector, still stuffing its fat face with cake right now. And the hit (think crash diet) to the public sector will starve all the many crony businesses of their usual State largesse.
We're talking bankrupt bankers denied their drip feed, consultants and accountants, property and infrastruture companies, the propped-up insolvent energy and green sector, red-inked trains and buses, military contractors, GE, education, healthcare and of course all those people that do nothing productive for a living on the Govt payroll, the paper pushers.
Once this house of cards begins to collapse at Govt HQ, some 30-60% of a countries GDP is public sector, it will collapse so fast and hard no commentator, even the sharp cookies at ZH, will be able to keep up. I'd estimate 50% of the public sector (100% if we're really lucky) will be gone by start of 2017 (date most likely for rock bottom in this Great Depression).
Consider we have $17Trillion of debt, which includes Govt demand, chasing $12Trillion of available credit between 2012-2014. A near 30% global haircut even if all creditors have enough confidence to want to lend it all (highly unlikely). As a 2-3% drop in GDP is already deemed recessionary, i fail to see how a 10% plus collapse (as seen in Ireland and Spain) can be anything other than a full blown Depression on its merry way
As this discussion seems to have gone freestyle, could anyone explain why it's so difficult to buy physical gold in Israel?
they made their own coin last year.... hefty premium and don't all Jews rather create loans from fake goal anyway?? Shouldn't you just start a bank?
http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?ID=175441
wow. that is interesting. never head that before.
""My buddy detected "lots of anger" in them and told me that I can be more effective by making my points "more subtly." He added:"I don't care about the Caisse or PSP, but you don't need to be venomous and you won't change the way they ""
Not so sure this is always accurate. Volume and intensity may sometomes be needed and effective.
DEFAULT will be allowed once all valuable assets have been traded for the debt that we sold you.
Once your country looks like the Sahara, without water, oil, minerals, or shade, filled with starving masses of people, at that point we will consider a default, and your country will be given back to you.
Signed,
USURY INTERNATIONAL GROUP
exactly.. everyone get some type of tradable skill/production and start using it more and more with barter. I mentioned timebanks to my Chiropractor and she doesn't know much of world economics but inately she knew that bartering her skills was useful and she gets free oil changes, supplies etc in exchange for fixing backs.. I told her to find some farmers with ailing backs and she'll eat for free forever.
The less income you show as $$ and the more you barter for what you would pay $$ for, the less taxes you owe... continue until you are fucking free
Freedom comes when you stop using THEIR money.. it isn't the country's money anyway
in your video above Leo of Prof David Harvey he makes the statement the rich are getting richer at the expense of the very poor... he later qualifies this as the working poor. He needs to qualify his statement even further in all fairness
There are productive rich, like industrialists, and un-productive rich who are getting richer via the State (banksters, military contractors, Big Pharma, GE etc).
The State doesn't rob the poor, they're too poor to tax! The State largely robs the working and middle classes and small and medium sized enterprises of society.
The process of the State is then to distribute and enrich the elite rich (fascism) and the parasitcal poor (socialism) to please the right and left Parties. The State (a parasite) robs productive society to enrich itself and its fellow rich and poor parasites
Also worth noting for the record there are bankers (good conservative profitable bankers) and banksters (criminal bankers, fraudsters and propped up by State bailouts and the regulatory protection racket)
"There are productive rich, like industrialists, and un-productive rich who are getting richer via the State (banksters, military contractors, Big Pharma, GE etc)."
Marx would probably agree with this, but he would claim that all rich are just exploiting labor.
fair reality - good post !!
Thanks for the post Leo.
Always enjoy your writing.
Z
The leaders know what they are doing............?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuinqB9z3JI
Yeah, I know, he's paranoid and doesn't want me to call him Joe...LOL!
A nice thought from Leo:
"It's the only one we got and the only one we'll leave to future generations."
Odd that we would get this kind of thinking from one who pushes a policy of monetary extremism.
If Leo actual gave a damn about the future, he certainly would not be pushing QE and ZIRP today.
So which door is it Leo? Hint: You can't have it both ways.
Damn it Bruce. With all of the love showing above in some of the responses, you had to go negative on us. Shame on the mess. :)
Bruce, give it up already. The power elite are much bigger than you, me, and all the bloggers in the world. They will continue pandering to bankers until we hit extreme poverty. Doesn't mean I agree with official policy, but calling it like I see it. And to be honest, it's not working: look at brokers dealers and transports, they're both rolling over, doesn't bode well for stocks...stay tuned, big week this week. Enjoy the rest of your long weekend. Novak Djokovic rules!!!
Just because you have given up doesn't mean the rest of us have.
Soo... buy solars?
Trading networking stocks (JDSU, FNSR, JNPR) now but have tight stops. Solars are due for a pop but summer months are typically slow...watch Monday, gap down, pop and back down? Important level on SPX is 1380...
..as in like bubble *pop* ? - look am I buying or selling these fucking solars? make your mind up my unemployment benefit doesnt allow me very many you know, & I dont want to get it wrong.
I love market predictions - down up down , you have decreased your odds of being correct with the tri- prognastication . The corrupt market will continue to rise , along with the olgiarchs .
Leo, despite your self-righteous (and dubious) claims to have foreseen the current Long Crisis in 2007-2008, you epitomize the straightjacketed, statist, lemminglike blinkered arrogance and absolute cluelessness of all the so-called "mainstream" economic and financial parrots in the corporate-controlled media. There is nothing original or insightful in your ZH drivel, which nevertheless manages to make a unique synthesis of bland and blindly desperate pro-status-quo generalities, and cynical, venal and amoral spinelessness and abject cowardice.
Shove it all up your ass, Leo.
The classic approach of the parrot with nothing original to say, is to pepper one's writing with personal anecdotes. The goal is to develop a personal relationship with the reader, such that when the reader begins to realize that the intellectual content of the writing is severely lacking -- the writer will be forgiven because he's a "nice guy".
It's a strategy that works for pundits and fund managers the world over.
Leo's giving it a whirl. Those who see through such flimsy efforts dismiss him quickly. Those who don't, continue to swim in the shallow waters of Leo's "analysis".
Excellent observation Popo.
As for "the shallow waters of Leo's 'analysis' ", one must assume they originate in an overflowing toilet whose tank bears the label "Discredited Statist And Keynesian Bunk".
Jealousy is so unbecoming!
I agree.
So when are you residents of Canadia going to finally stop being jealous of your southern neighbors, who you are essentially identical to in every respect anyway except in the degree of your resignation to socialistic compliance and abject obedience to the state?
PS: The hysterically desperate refusal of your media parrots and political hacks to acknowledge the absurd extent of the wildly overinflated Canadian real estate bubble will only make us Americans laugh all the harder when that bubble inevitably pops, which it will, only to an even greater degree than the US one already has.
PPS: When the US dollar finally collapses and joins its predecessors in the junkheap and graveyard of every prior fiat currency, don't believe for a second that the Canadian dollar will not be dragged right along with it.
Good article and interesting video...thx! What I get from that is: have eyes wide open...be strong...be vigilent...be logical and open-minded...be polite...and love & respect man's best friend! http://screencast.com/t/7FAinCPU
My buddy detected "lots of anger" in them and told me that I can be more effective by making my points "more subtly."
You ever read the comments section of this site or other alt. media sites Leo?...You express about as much anger as a Disney flick.
Anyhow keep up the good work.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_GWUvf8pNo
I gave Leo 5 stars, for his seemingly honest awakening to the futility of the old paradigm. Am I wrong?
Leo, You seem to see a continuation of the way things have always been extending onward in perpetuity. Has it ever occurred to you that there is a "discontinuity" looming?
Picture 25 or 35 million refugees from the USSA swarming across the northern border to escape being kicked into FEMA camps, all armed to the teeth and really pissed. All tired of watching the dumbland security gunning down woemen & children, watching the military machinegunning the cops in order to be loyal to their oath of service.
It is probably quite unnecessary to worry about Quebec pension funds or any other pension funds for that matter. All in the dustbin of history.
Quebec will return to being an English colony with a yankee accent. The French will become outcasts in their own land.
And, if this is about to transpire, there is nothing anyone can do to prevent it.
You are not wrong and you are a good man. But maybe you do not see that the 'nwo' concept isn't so much a bad thing as it is the inevitability of change.
Live the golden rule in your own life dude. But one world gov't is inevitable and pretty much here already. Whatever you and I have to say on Zero Hedge don't mean shit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftVMjvQf9pk&feature=grec_index
Leo -
We DO have a tad in common !! What job were you seeking at Quebec Hydro ? I work at Hydros also in the states . The last bastion of real freedom , independence and self motivation in the work place . But the Wiggs are chipping away at that .
Perhaps Vickii, but Mankind has a history of having only so much shit pumped up its ass and into its mouth before it revolts in a very, very violent fashion.
The last few times it has happened no one thought it would happen.
Usually it takes 150 to 250 years. Tomorrow is July 4. Its time.
Thank you very much.
I just "wish" (what an impotent word) that humans would stop being such hypocrites, liars, and cowards somewhere along the road before they declare global law.
You are the only one who has said such a thing to me, and I can't thank you enough.
+edit: that music makes me stfu and groove
I have always admired your posts.
If the "revive the truth and save the world campaign began" I would be the first one out with a shovel and hammer to help build an honest society.
As it stands now, my only outlet is to bitch and whine from my keyboard with the ZH crew.
I feel you dude. We were just trying to figure this shit out. And since we have, and have seen how fucked up it is, we need to choose our place. I'm not a bad guy and neither are you.
The only thing I have to say on this website going forward will ultimately show me to be a hype-man for RobotTrader.
I think you will understand.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wAh2dEN8Rk&feature=fvst
+
Dear Cowards,
Leo’s effort here was capped by sound advice. The sound advice: “Let's all do our part, however small, to save this world. It's the only one we got and the only one we'll leave to future generations.”
I know I am going to try, but to give in to world government, IOW, to lock – finally - mankind into neck, arm and leg irons is not my idea of doing what you can to save the world.
J.R.
JR,
Not to try and get into a late debate with you as no one will see this, but one world gov't isn't the end. It's only the start of something new. Mankind will get past that shit, as it always has.
Anyhow I bring this up b/c I would like to bring it up with as an off-topic the next time I see you post on this website.
Happy Independence Day dude. Regardless as to whether you see that as a :-) or a :-(