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ScotiaMocatta Sells Out Of Silver Bars

Tyler Durden's picture


And an appropriate story to end 2010 with: ScotiaMocatta, one the world's biggest bullion banks, is now sold out of all silver bars.

Carry on

h/t Omega3ala



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Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:23 | 840267 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Maybe they should buy more from JPM. I heard they own lots of "silver".

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:37 | 840443 Bearster
Bearster's picture

Let's not confuse the manufacturing capacity to make retail bars like 100oz with the idea of a bullion bank "running out" of silver.  When the latter actually happens, there will be a backwardation that will be obvious from outer space.

Don't get me wrong, I am very bullish about the monetary metals, and wouldn't be surprised to see silver +100% in 2011 (or +15%) but to say they are running out now is misleading.  Strong demand, absolutely.  Bullish yes, of course.  But let's not hyperbolize.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:56 | 840493 Monetary Lapse ...
Monetary Lapse of Reason's picture

This is not hyperbole... it is really happening.  You have not been watching closely enough.  I have;

It appears that we will hit backwardation in even 12 mo. forwards soon;

Today, the Sprott Silver Trust, PSLV, hit it's highest premium to NAV ever, over 15% - this is a very strong indicator to me since PSLV is pretty much the only means right now to INSTANTLY get your hands on (via your brokerage acct) allocated, audited, London Good Delivery Silver bars in a vault in Canada.  Or you can try your luck with getting Comex delivery.  PSLV is actually going to become a more meaningful price discovery mechanism than Comex if Comex does not either reform or go bust.     

There is no question in my mind that Silver is dramatically undervalued, and that the extent of the supply vs demand imbalance has been covered up by the likes of JPM and their paper ponzi SLV. 


Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:06 | 840521 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

"it's not a shortage, just a delay"

Calling Johnny Nadler....

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 22:35 | 840941 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

That's Nadless to you, sonny. See his latest post on Kitco. It's a fizzer, again.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 23:19 | 841020 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Here is the report GATA picked up on what happens when you try to take the physical silver Scotia Bank is supposed to "have it in store" for you. Organic take silver / crash banksters movement, I'd say.


Scotiabank gives long abuse to cancer victim trying to reclaim her silver

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 11:15 | 841458 longontents
longontents's picture

I wasn't feeling suicidal enough today, so I read the article.  I liked the closing line: "If she wanted to buy crack cocaine with that silver, or sleep with it at her side, that's her call, because it belongs to her, not the bank. The bully-boy functionaries might want to find a comfort level around that notion."


Sat, 01/01/2011 - 13:58 | 841580 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Thank you for the link. I have bought scotiabank metals in the past, but no more. While I always take possession, it is necessary for people to understand that bankers are criminals- plain and simple. 

Sun, 01/02/2011 - 20:28 | 843167 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

You took the words right out of my mouth BAy

We got plenty of silver, mucha, but the guy in the mail room quit so we have nobody to mail it out, and we haven't been able to replace him with a new mail room clerk. And then they say we have an unemployment problem in this country, yeah

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:12 | 840526 BrianOFlanagan
BrianOFlanagan's picture

that 15% premium for PSLV also means Sprott is about to do a massive follow-on offering!  For some reason, stupid investors never learn - see PHYS.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:18 | 840669 Bearster
Bearster's picture

Sprott may be a great way for a lot of people who can only by stock exchange listed securities and want metal.  But it is not the only way.

Sprott has a brilliant model, I bet they can make a LOT more money letting the premium rise and then selling more units than they can from managing the assets.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 20:33 | 840795 Freddie
Freddie's picture

"Sprott may be a great way for a lot of people who can only by stock exchange listed securities and want metal.  But it is not the only way."

What are some of the other ways?  Thanks.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 23:26 | 841028 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Anyone have any feedback about's gold closed-end fund GTU or Central Gold Trust.  It is a companion fund to CEF or Central Fund of Canada.   It looks like they hold physical gold in trust in Canada.  Thanks.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 02:32 | 841225 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

you might check jesse's cafe's archives for precious metals funds.  he's an astute observer and chart reader.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 14:36 | 841632 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Easily one of the best blogs.

Jesse's Cafe Americain:

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 22:06 | 840901 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Have you even bothered to read the prospectus?   Basically its _very_ unlikely they'll ever be able to do an offering because they can not undercut existing shares.  Please do not comment on what you do not understand.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:55 | 840896 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

PSLV is actually going to become a more meaningful price discovery mechanism than Comex if Comex does not either reform or go bust.    

That might have been one of its intended purposes....

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 08:42 | 841360 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

Can PSLV, or any PM etf for that matter, be considered "allocated"?   It seems like they have the bars, but you don't have any one of these bars specifically "allocated" to you.  That would make it unallocated.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 13:34 | 841559 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Allocated IF you can foot the bill for the 400oz requirements,.(PSLV) and the HIT on the Prem if you want to take delivery( I believe BV is 20% of your total value).

Perth is the only one I know that has allocated, and unallocated.And is owned by the Western Govt of Austrailia.

Rather expensive for Allocated yearly fees,outside them, I know of no other I would even start to trust.

If you do not have possession,you do not own it.(IMHO)

Because it is subject to seizure any time, and that time is likely less than 24 mos away.(again,IMHO)

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:29 | 840574 BeeTee
BeeTee's picture

Thanks for adding some sanity to this discussion.

My dealer (Metalor, Switzerland) has plenty of kilo bars for sale.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:48 | 840718 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

Apmex and bullion direct are running out of REAL silver as well.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:30 | 840279 10044
10044's picture

how can they run out of paper silver?! lol

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:46 | 840882 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

Since paper silver is primarily a byproduct of mining paper copper and paper gold, any cutback in mining of those paper metals could easily lead to a shortage of paper silver.

Or it might be discovered that SLV doesn't have the paper silver it claims to hold.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 02:34 | 841227 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

well done.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 09:16 | 841374 technovelist
technovelist's picture

Since paper silver is primarily a byproduct of mining paper copper and paper gold, any cutback in mining of those paper metals could easily lead to a shortage of paper silver.

Or even paper cuts. Ow!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:38 | 840292 RacerX
RacerX's picture

I heard paper silver was better.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:05 | 840341 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh yeah, they just discovered yet another hugely prosperous paper silver mine, though its hard to get to, as it's mixed in with paper copper and paper tungsten.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:17 | 840384 RacerX
RacerX's picture

yep. the "JPM Organ" has their mitts in lots of paper natural resources.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:38 | 840294 Jason T
Jason T's picture

next up: SLV runs out of silver.  :)  


I have both SLV and CEF and a little SSRI.

I got killed in fall of 2008 owning SSRI.  fool me once.. so my fingers are crossed.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:15 | 840380 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

I hope you mean PSLV......SLV isn't audited and I seriously doubt they have the silver to back their paper. Be careful with SLV....


PS: CEF is an excellent choice.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:03 | 840510 ChanceIs
ChanceIs's picture

Silly, silly boy.

SLV doesn't need to be audited.  The JP Morgue is the custodian.  You know...what do they call them...Oh that's SRO...Self Regulating Organization.

It isn't as if they don't keep accounts.  Every time the JJP Morgue wants to drive down the market price a little, it accurately records a debit against the bullion "borrowed" from the SLV vault and sold into the market.

If you look in the SLV prospectus, you will probably find that they can "fractioanally-reserve-out"...say...99% of the bullion. 



Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:20 | 840540 mberry8870
mberry8870's picture

From the SLV prospective:


"Funds that invest primarily in equity securities and non-equity-related instruments of the precious metals market. This can include investments in the mining, exploration, or distribution of gold and other precious metals. Funds may also hold bullion."


The physical is clearly an afterthought. You are exposed to price exposures, the the physical itself.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:51 | 840615 ouchtouch
ouchtouch's picture

I don't know what prospectus you are looking at but it is not the current prospectus of SLV.  SLV's prospectus makes it clear that it only owns silver bullion, not equity securities or other instruments.


Fri, 12/31/2010 - 20:35 | 840798 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Yes, and also has a clause that you can settled in cash and not silver. Because they use fractional not everyone gets their silver.  What was the admitted ratio? 100 claims to 1 ounce of real silver.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 11:15 | 841456 ouchtouch
ouchtouch's picture

Well, if anyone bought SLV in the belief that in the event of Armageddon a silver fairy would show up at their house with the metal then they bought the wrong asset.  The part about fractional reserves and 100 to 1 ratio is fiction, you made it up.  There is no credible evidence that SLV owns anything other than 100% of the silver its financial statements say it owns.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 20:46 | 842021 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Nope. The 100 - 1 ratio was testimony at the CFTC hearings in March, 2010.  It was reported here on Zero Hedge:

 Using the testimony of a clueless Jeffrey Christian, formerly a staffer at the Commodities Research Group in the Goldman Sachs Investment Research Department and now head and founder of theCPM Group, Douglas confirms that the "LBMA trades over 100 times the amount of gold it actually has to back the trades."


Bankers have used fractional reserves for centuries...and always go under when the bank run occurs. It'll happen here too. (And they said Gold, but it applies to Silver as well).

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 22:00 | 840897 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture


The terms of that prospectus are terrifying: "assets are primarily silver" without specifying what "primarily" means or what the balance consists of.

"If certain events occur [what events?] at any time, the trustee will have to terminate the trust."  "Upon termination of the trust, the trustee will sell silver in the amount necessary to cover all expenses of liquidation, and to pay any outstanding liabilities of the trust.  The remaining silver will be distributed among investors surrendering iShares."  

"There may be situations where an Authorized Participant is unable to redeem a basket of shares."  No kidding?  Like what?  This is not my idea of a way to hedge the Bernanke Put with silver.


Sat, 01/01/2011 - 02:40 | 841229 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture


Sat, 01/01/2011 - 13:49 | 841569 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I suggest you read the FINE print on ALL the will likely decide to NOT put your FRN's there.

Everything is geared to their advantage.NOT the customers.


"The terms of that prospectus are terrifying:"


Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:39 | 840295 Yits and the Yimrum
Yits and the Yimrum's picture

power to the people Bitchez!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:42 | 840298 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Wow. Wow. Wow. Strange, amazing days, indeed.

We are on the cusp of another big UP leg in the pms. I've been all over it for about a week now. Sorry I don't get to post here as frequently as I used to. The tf blog is taking a lot of time. To all here at ZH, the #1, hands down, best financial site on the web, Happy New Year!!!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:11 | 840368 yabyum
yabyum's picture

It is a great day in America when a kid named Turd gets his own blog, hny to all the Turds if the world any to ALL the ZH'ers even liberal sodomy!!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:15 | 840377 bernorange
bernorange's picture

I've been reading your blog daily for the last week or so.  Never posted a comment (don't want to register for any of the options you list), but am enjoying your posts.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:39 | 840448 PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

Turd - enjoying your site. Keep up the good work ... like those charts!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:01 | 840509 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Hey TF thanks for everything...this is for you and anyone that doesn't have a clue yet:

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 18:03 | 841820 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Burt never looked so good!  Thanks for the walk down memory lane.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:19 | 840538 Cyrano de Bivouac
Cyrano de Bivouac's picture

TF. Happy New Year and congratulations on the success of your new site. I was wondering if you could devote some time to answering readers questions? Tentative name of column "Ask Turd".

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:23 | 840549 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Turd Droppings

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 22:07 | 840907 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

I guess the truth really is disgusting.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 14:44 | 841641 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You can't handle the Turd!

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 16:02 | 841716 akak
akak's picture

When turds are outlawed, the only outlaw will be The Turd.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:50 | 840614 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Yes, your presence here is missed greatly, and your Blog is Fantastico Pandemonium!!.(that meaning Rat On).

Your calls have been almost 100% dead on, are you sure you do not have ESP to the BM's line?.LOL

Happy New Year to you and Yours!!!.

Be safe!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:40 | 840300 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

I just called them.   It's a typo - they meant "FAR OUT"...they'll be updating the website soon....

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:41 | 840306 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

Guess its too early to sell mine.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:10 | 840369 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Instant, you have a mine to sell?

Good for you. Happy new year. Can I be your friend?



Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:44 | 840311 breezer1
Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:45 | 840312 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Sorry that I bought them all guys...

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:51 | 840322 Segestan
Segestan's picture

So then they are Not Bullion bankers anymore right?  Poor foresight...

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:58 | 840326 akak
akak's picture

I'm sure Jon Nadler will somehow find this to be just another sign of the imminent and perpetual crash in the precious metals, as investors flee to all things paper and Ponzi --- like his "pooled" precious metals unallocated accounts at Kitco.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:54 | 840329 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Old school marketing bait. Nothing sells like perceived scarcity. There's plenty more silver to be got. The nexus of Chile and NW Argentina is brimming with the stuff and they've been mining it there since 1540.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:47 | 840466 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

They must have an infinite supply.............just like Saudi petro-minerals

Sun, 01/09/2011 - 23:11 | 840758 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Alternately, nothing creates the impression of surplus like a perceived drop in demand.  I can see it now; in  February the US mint will be telling us how Silver coin sales 'dropped off sharply' near the end of 2010, conveniently 'forgetting' to mention that they suspended sales.

But like you said, your world is brimming with silver,  mine start ups are a 1967 dime a dozen, they take less than a week to start producing dore bars, and a unicorn will shit rainbows on your face if you rub his horn long enough.

(Warning: to remain in this state of complete and utter dupedom, you must never, EVER take off your Cirque du Soleil coloured glasses).

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:57 | 840333 New Revolution
New Revolution's picture

Well, now that the money is starting to flee the bond market and into equities it only makes sense that they would hog on into the metals with at least part of their haul,... and yes, technically silver is ready to rock and I expect it will.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:58 | 840334 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

All Silver bars sold out on bullionbypost as well.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 20:26 | 840782 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

My favorite dealer Gainesville Coins still has silver bars in all types of sizes.  I am stunned ScotiaMocatta is asking USD $1,600 for a Gold Maple.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:24 | 840863 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I'd be even more stunned if someone is stupid enough to pay it!

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 00:42 | 841121 Goolie
Goolie's picture

Ditto on GainesvilleCoins.  I've used then several times in 2010 and recommended them to clients as well.  BTW, their bag-o-junk silver is a bargain at $.20 over spot.  I like junk better than bars...a lot easier to transact business with a handfull of dimes rather than a block and a hacksaw

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 07:42 | 841338 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Gainsville Coin has Gold Eagles for $1478.30

Silver Eagles (their choice of dates) for $34.21

1 oz Silver Pandas (China) for $38.26 of now.

I have some of all...The Panda is a very handsome coin but not as attractive as any walking liberty coin...imo. 





Fri, 12/31/2010 - 22:54 | 840976 The Hopp
The Hopp's picture

Depends on who you deal with. Im a physical metals broker. Not seeing any lag time on orders.  

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 15:30 | 841683's picture

Let's go to The Hopp.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:02 | 840346 flyzipper
flyzipper's picture

They've been out of stock off and on for the last few months.
Usually the out-of-stock product is back in stock within a week.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:16 | 840354 akak
akak's picture

I have also read several first-hand accounts of customers who dared to actually visit a ScotiaMocatta branch asking to buy physical silver, and being treated with disdain, hostility, stalling and/or ignorance.  That's strictly anecdotal, of course, but still revealing when it comes to a "leading dealer" in the precious metals.  My suspicion is that ScotiaMocatta is more a "leading dealer" in (supposedly) PM-backed paper derivatives and (questionable) pooled and unallocated PM accounts than they are in the physical metals themselves.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:25 | 840406 flacon
flacon's picture

I purchased a few monster boxes from ScotiaMocatta via ScotiaBank. The branch manager was curious why I needed so much silver. I just said "Oh... it's an investment for my retirement.", LOL!

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 11:21 | 841462 longontents
longontents's picture

They probably passed on your particulars to CSIS.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:50 | 840477 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

They make it very discouraging to buy physical in person at one of the Scotia Mocatta locations at BNS, you have to provide your social security number (I forget what the US equivalent is) for any amount, unlike at coin/bullion dealers in Canada where transactions under $10K are invisible if done with cash.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:53 | 840487 akak
akak's picture

Why does that NOT surprise me?

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 14:08 | 841598 DosZap
DosZap's picture

They are like most HUGE operations, if your not purchasing $15k+ worth, your wasting their time.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:41 | 840710 Dantzler
Dantzler's picture

My brother in law went to a Scotia branch in Calgary to buy a few silver maples. He was treated poorly and they demanded 2 forms of picture ID. They did not get his business. We went to a coin shop and was able to get what he needed without fuss.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 03:41 | 841268 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

I buy my gold at the local Royal Bank of Canada branch. London Morning Gold Fix price + $60 oz for bars or coins, plus $15 delivery charge for any amount.

And for some reason they charge sales tax on coins but not on boars (which seems backwards to me) so I buy bars.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 15:32 | 841687's picture

they charge sales tax on coins but not on boars


The swine!

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 07:45 | 841339 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I have visited Gainsville Coin's store several times (always wire transfer $ ahead of time) and they are very pleasant to deal with.

Funny anecdotal story; first visit to Gainsville CoinI purchased some gold at about $650 per oz...two clerks were waiting on me and one said 'Do you think gold will continue to go up?' I said 'yes'. Other clerk said 'I would rather have the dollars'. I said 'to each his own'. We all laughed. I wonder if that clerk ever purchased any gold his employer was selling?

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:31 | 840692 DosZap
DosZap's picture

LBME, has NO silver nor Gold...Out.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:05 | 840353 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

thats some high markup.. scottsdale has ads on this site now - and much cheaper.  but local dealers are your best friend - you want them to around when time to sell..  whenever that is.. so make sure you do some business there

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:13 | 840371 yabyum
yabyum's picture

It's time to make friends with your LOCAL coin guy, make it a new years resolution.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:17 | 840387 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

I received an e-mail from Apmex that allows you to convert bars to rounds (with a premium). My immediate thought was "bars are running out".

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:24 | 840409 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Looks like they have more than 10,000 of at least a couple of varieties of 1 oz bars in stock right now.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:26 | 840568 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

They are out of their 5oz bars mainly but for the Sunshine mint.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:14 | 840850 tmosley
tmosley's picture

They are always out of something.  They have a lot of inventory at the moment--well over 100K oz of just the generic bars.

Note that my natural bias as a silver ultrabull is to the othr direction.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:39 | 840707 delacroix
delacroix's picture

nw territorial mint is hawking that too

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:17 | 840391 asotavb
asotavb's picture

Premiums for Maples Gold/Silver also rising in the new year, up to 10% more.


Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:49 | 840478 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Just when I wanted to spend my Xmax bonus on more damn

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:19 | 840396 bernorange
bernorange's picture

US Mint seems to be running short on silver blanks too:

No telling when production on uncirculated 2011 Silver Eagles will begin.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:24 | 840408 sbenard
sbenard's picture

I drink silver all the time. I'd better get some more!

Sun, 01/02/2011 - 03:02 | 842341 saulysw
saulysw's picture

I wouldn't do that. You might turn blue. Really.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:34 | 840438 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Silver is getting sucked out of circulation and into storage. 

In India, bullion dealers are saying supply is tight. I buy from one of B'lore's biggest.

30.90 last I checked. Still not the hockey stick move though. Might even see a mild correction before that happens.

This IS silver's year to break free. Gold is tired, it's had a 10 year run. 

tmosely  and others have written many intelligent posts on reasons why.

Not a good year to trade. Too much vol. 

Value investing, PM style. Good luck all around.



Sat, 01/01/2011 - 07:55 | 841342 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Gold is tired? Yeah, right, it only appreciated 29% against the dollar in 2010 and outperformed the S&P by about 15%. lol

Give me a 29% annualized and compounding increase in gold every year and soon I will be extremely wealthy.

Gold is azz!

Gold may get tired if Ben stops printing...but if he does the entire US Economy will look like a steaming pile of rubble.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 09:26 | 841382 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Snidely, I meant in relation to Silver, not Fiat.

Good luck this year. We're all going to need it.


Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:56 | 840475 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Next week SLV will have a sign 'Lent Out' nothing left, I guess we're in for serious physical shortages as people won't part with the metal almost for no price. I think we might even skip the hyperinflation phase and go straigt to barter from Friday to Monday

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:07 | 840840 owensdrillin
owensdrillin's picture

I don't know if anyone else here owns SLV options but for some reason the price was slashed on them after the close today. I own the $22 Jan/12 and the price was $9.05 before the close and is now sitting at $7.71.

Maybe just an error? Even SLW is nowhere near where it was when the silver price was at this level before. It traded as high as $42 (cdn) and is now only around $38. I'm selling both and getting more physical, if I can.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:52 | 840484 Jackagain
Jackagain's picture

I think JPM gave up and bought the last of it. The central banksters are calling in

their orders.


Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:01 | 840504 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Ofc they are not stupid they have massive physical positions, 'covered' with even more massive paper shorts, they simply depres the price so they can buy more in the end they know the government won't let the default not that their gold and silver is on US soil anyway

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:54 | 840488 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

A number of previous silver bull runs were quashed when consensus in India was it was now time to dump physical metal.  East indians have traditionally kept much of their wealth in physical silver.  This bull run has bigger legs so I expect the previous high of $50 to be taken out but then I would not want to hang around for the aftermath.  A pure speculative move based on no real fundamentals.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:03 | 840512 Monetary Lapse ...
Monetary Lapse of Reason's picture

So, India is going to sell and offset all the other folks trying to escape the upcoming distruction of Fiat in the US, Eurozone, etc, etc?  BS Mcarthur.  

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 14:19 | 841610 DosZap
DosZap's picture

India is snarfing Silver like crazy, even at higher prices.(prices are already up there),

As soon as the mkts open Sun 5:00 CST, watch the rise,better order more now, before then.

$32+is a no brainer.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:04 | 840517 akak
akak's picture

"Dump physical metal" --- and then do what with the proceeds?

Naturally and ideally, one could always buy back in at a lower price, building one's holdings in the process, but that is a gambler's racket that under current market and world financial conditions I would not want any part of myself.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:25 | 840562 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

I made a killing selling a safety deposit box full of silver bars to the Hunt brothers about thirty years ago, so been there done that.  One thing I do know is that the grocery store wants cash not bullion so eventually every buyer becomes a seller.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:39 | 840590 akak
akak's picture

Only until cash = bullion.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:53 | 840617 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

(I also had a few 10 oz bars of gold picked up at $335/oz which I gave recently to the nephews to cover their university bills.  I imagine the admissions officer would not have been humored to receive bars.)

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:00 | 840638 akak
akak's picture

And I can't spend Euros in Japan, or spend wheat at the grocery store, or spend stocks anywhere.  Your point?

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:04 | 840645 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

If you need money in a hurry, you have to convert to cash.  If you consider gold and silver to be money, which is the recent common BS, than I guess wheat is also.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:31 | 840691 akak
akak's picture

You mean, if you need CURRENCY in a hurry.

What passes for cash today is NOT "money".

But you already know that, or are in denial of that fact, so I will leave it there.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 03:13 | 841252 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

you're wasting your keystrokes.  he bought gold at $335 and sold silver to the hunt brothers.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 10:55 | 841436 living on the edge
living on the edge's picture

he bought gold at $335 and sold silver to the hunt brothers

Do you suppose he sold silver to Max Keiser too?

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:55 | 840624 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Thirty years ago, the Fed sent interest rates up to the upper teens to break the back of inflation.  Bernanke would piss his pants at interest rates going up 1 lousy percent with the implications for U.S. debt.  There won't be a repeat.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 20:32 | 840792 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I have plenty of paper money for groceries. Think I'll hold onto my silver another decade to see where this journey takes me.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 20:08 | 840754 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

I do not suffer fools well.   Go away, fucko!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:00 | 840505 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....great news for the silver producers aka miners....take a look at HL's cost per oz. versus the current silver price.....(I use HL just as an example).

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:03 | 840516 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...ok, I'll make it even easier....taken from HL's site:

"In 2009, Hecla was one of the lowest-cost primary silver producers in North America, producing a record 10.9 million ounces of silver at an average total cash cost of $1.91 per ounce."


That is why I buy the miners and not the metal.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:19 | 840537 Dimeboy
Dimeboy's picture

Hope you are not too upset when .gov nationalizes the mines because the physical is the only US money left......

Better to look at the supply leaser's like Silver Wheaton - and buy it on the TSX just to be safe.


Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:22 | 840552 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I like SLW!

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 00:51 | 841133 Goolie
Goolie's picture

I put on a sizeable SLW position today with the new high in SLV.  I think SLW will be the blue chip silver stock for the duration of this silver bull market.  With that said, the SLW is just a trade vs. my much larger physical silver position.  In the end, I don't want paper anything.

Sun, 01/02/2011 - 01:12 | 842259 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

we are playing monopoly baseball.


accumulating worthless paper is akin to getting players on base and advancing them.


players score when you cash out for real money.


the transition from the pixelated virtual world to the real world will be tough for most.


franklin delano romanowski bitchez!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:46 | 840603 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

Hecla's been a survivor of more than one death bed over the years.  The acquisition of Greens Creek from Rio Tinto near Juneau is looking better every day.  Like most "silver miners", the bills are actually paid by the zinc and copper revenue streams but the retail market (ie. you) will not give base metal miners much of a NAV premium whereas gold/silver miners attract the rabid and irrational hence 2 or 3 times NAV.  (Think about it for a minute, a gold mine with five years of reserves left carries a 25 p/e.  Just to get your money back the mine would have to run 20 years longer than the reserve base. Forget the time value of money or ROI.  As a mining engineer, I was involved in the design and construction of two underground silver/lead/zinc mines in Australia in the 90's. We actually created wealth instead of transfering it.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:57 | 840630 akak
akak's picture

whereas gold/silver miners attract the rabid and irrational

For that, you earned my "Flagged as junk".  Asshole.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:11 | 840651 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

Well. I'll stand by my 25.2% annual return over the past 29 years.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:32 | 840696 akak
akak's picture

Hooray for you.

Sun, 01/02/2011 - 12:27 | 842526 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Your bitter and sarcastic posts reek of emotional instability. Can you logically refute mcarthur's posts? If not then you have nothing positive to contribute.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 20:24 | 840780 Dimeboy
Dimeboy's picture

You're gonna need all of that return in FRNs to buy a Happy Meal when the paper burns...

Time to cash in the casino chips and get out of the Phillipines with metal, General.

(once again)

Sun, 01/02/2011 - 17:30 | 842978 Dimeboy
Dimeboy's picture

BTW, I'll "stand by" (or stand beside!) my 465% returns on Gold over the last 11 years.

With 95% dollar devaluation since 1971, a average 25.2% over 29y return means you are about break even for your troubles (less fees) 

Congrats again.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 03:17 | 841255 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture


Sat, 01/01/2011 - 14:32 | 841601 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

"Well. I'll stand by my 25.2% annual return over the past 29 years."


By 'stand by' I'm betting that you mean 'provide no evidence whatsoever'.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 15:39 | 841694's picture

mcarthur said: annual return over the past 29 years.


I know you promised to return but twenty nine times is over doing it, don't you think?

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 08:24 | 841352 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Mac, blowing your own horn about the numerous activitites that you claim to have undertaken will only send red caution flags flying on this site. You are not the only person here with long experience in many fields.

I suggest you tone it down a bit. Merely a suggestion, mind you.

Happy New Year!

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 19:32 | 841925 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The overly proud find no quarter here. 

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 20:32 | 842005's picture

I found a nickel, half a pack of matches and a green M&M.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 23:04 | 842156 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Well then, 'twern't fer nothin'.   And a Happy New Year to ya.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:22 | 840548 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Same Scotia that couldn't deliver physical to investors who were storing in their vault?

Silver has leggggs.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:27 | 840570 BeeTee
BeeTee's picture

Thanks for adding some sanity to this discussion.

My dealer (Metalor, Switzerland) has plenty of kilo bars.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:00 | 840637 TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

It is certainly about to blow. Either everyone has gotten sucked in and will be dumping in the next few months, or armageddon is just over the hill.

But one way or another, I have the feeling metals are set to make a major move.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 03:33 | 841262 KTV Escort
KTV Escort's picture

J6P doesn't have an ounce, and no paper PMs either

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 14:38 | 841640 DosZap
DosZap's picture

This dude is just tuning up.IMHO

As an older fart, I have to stop and slap my ass silly, when I say, it's been like this before.

Then I realize NO it has not.

The last mania Did not include China,India, Russia, and the EuRopians.( and the PacRims taking over the globe).

Almost the entire worlds political, and fiscal houses are in the shitter.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:45 | 840715 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

we're you people the same people buying oil 2 years ago at 145 bucks?  I love that way everyone gets so bulled up on silver and perceives there to be no downside risk what so ever.... now if i just substituted SPX for the word silver.......hmmmmm

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:49 | 840723 akak
akak's picture

Are you one of the same people who piled into "safe" US Treasuries and UK Gilts at 2.5%?  How's that workin' for ya?

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 20:09 | 840761 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

Say this with me. 





Fri, 12/31/2010 - 22:20 | 840921 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

You forget China and Russia, etc. They have fiat systems and debt too. In fact, I would expect the death of hyperinflation in China first, then Europe, then finally the USA.

Sun, 01/02/2011 - 00:01 | 840998 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

No, where not.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 08:32 | 841358 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I was short oil at $144 and made a killing all the way down.

The clowns over at 'The Oil Drum' were the ones taken in. They kept up the chant 'peak oil is causing this run up in crude price!' Meanwhile, Iran had dozens of tankers loaded with crude sitting in the Persian Gulf awaiting offers to buy.

After getting out of my oil shorts and taking profits I promptly bought physical gold/ is grand when trades go your way!

Happy New Year to all at this great site, ZH!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!