Scott Minerd's Detailed Pre-Mortem On What Europe's Bank Run Will Look Like, And Other Observations

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Wed, 12/22/2010 - 12:52 | 824048 Alfred
Alfred's picture

"Pre-Mortem"... freakin' genius!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 12:54 | 824054 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Gee, I wonder if it will be as "horrific" as the Irish bank run on 12/7? Pretty much crippled the country. Oh, it didn't? That's right, another "horror" story that didn't come to pass.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:10 | 824098 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

who can focus on bank runs when lindsay is having so many problems.

http://www.tmz.com/2010/12/21/lindsay-lohan-betty-ford-staffer-dawn-holl...

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:23 | 824132 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Careless Whisper

Definitely far less worse than Spiderman the musical and it's curse.

Gotta admit Lohan does have a knack for staying in the media unlike say Tom Sizemore.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:38 | 824178 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

the controlled media force feeds us lindsay stories as a distraction to the important news, but people are seeing through that, or at least viewing important news along with the daily nonsense.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoHOAPSgzJM

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 16:26 | 824677 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Not as many people want to hate-fuck Sizemore.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:27 | 824142 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

The ECB and the Central Bank of Ireland have "lent" €135bn to Irish banks.

That's over 100% of Irish GNP.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:54 | 824207 M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

And €44bn+ of that is Exceptional Liquidity Arrangement money from the Central Bank of Ireland. Unlike other ECB/Eurosystem "liquidity" programs like the LTRO repos or the SMP bond-buying, the Irish taxpayer is on the hook for any and all losses from Irish ELA "liquidity".

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:52 | 824215 M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

[doubledypost]

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:22 | 824955 crazyjsmith
crazyjsmith's picture

Patience Wang Chung, Patience.  Or did you not read the multiple references to "2011"? 

Rarely does one die immediately when diagnosed with a terminal disease. 

 

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 12:56 | 824058 flacorps
flacorps's picture

A pre-mortem is a terminal diagnosis. No need for a neologism. My neologism of the year is "plutocronyistikakistocracy."

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:15 | 824108 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

That sounds like a neologism straight out of the mouth of GI Gurdjieff.

Very good.

10 points.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:27 | 824143 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

flacorps

Doctor: [laughs] Right, kick ass. Well, don't want to sound like a dick or nothin', but, ah... it says on your chart that you're fucked up. Ah, you talk like a fag, and your shit's all retarded. What I'd do, is just like... like... you know, like, you know what I mean, like...

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:20 | 824954 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

excellent recall, Gully! scene ends, as I remember, with the doc freaking out: "unscanable! unscanable!" perhaps prescient.....

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 15:52 | 824594 metastar
metastar's picture

plutocronyistikakistocracy, ... WTF???

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 12:56 | 824061 UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture

 

Why would the USD rally?

Are the US banks exposed to a european crash?

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:11 | 824081 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The dollar is going up because the USA will have 3.5-4.0 GDP next year. The euro is in trouble because they built many nations around one interest rate, Germany is booming & needs a rate hike. The pigs and the rest need ultra low rates, this will end bad. The US dollar being the reserve currency always has a bid, old debt being rolled over ( can kick ), new debt being issued on a global scale every day, businesses ect .... The USA running at 70% is still a powerhouse.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:17 | 824114 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

As long as GDP numbers include government expenditures, they are compromised. They require an additional tier of analysis. The proportion of public versus private product becomes an important ratio. This ratio is climbing in favor of public spending. With the addition of city and state fiscal failures looming- this could get very ugly, very fast. 

This will be the cover used to prop back up the euro and the dollar will then slide. The Yen will follow and we will continue the spiral downwards. Asset prices will mean nothing by themselves  because currency values are compromised. Ratios of assets will be necessary to determine any real winners. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:19 | 824119 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Almost everything I read (here and elsewhere) convinces me that it all is going to end badly and the only protection we individuals have is gold (etc.).

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:10 | 824775 akak
akak's picture

I agree, DoChen --- all this talk about a "rising dollar" and "flight to safety in the dollar" is just more smoke and mirrors attempting to hide the ultimate truth --- the depreciation and ultimate collapse of ALL fiat currencies, and the corrupted and unsustainable Ponzi-like markets and financial structures built around them.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:20 | 824123 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

You can't expect GDP that high when the world cannot buy your goods. GDP today even missed expectations. You're way off.

Germany is screwed being part of the euro. Only country over there doing anything or producing,

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 15:17 | 824500 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Germany won't be screwed, they will (IMHO) dump the Euro, and go back to the Mark.

Prior to taking a major bath.If they do not their citizens will burn them down.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:29 | 824147 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Spalding_Smailes

Phone Computer: Welcome to AOL Time Warner Taco Bell US Government Long Distance. Please say the name of the person you wish to call.
Rita: Upgrayedd.
Phone Computer: There are 9,726 listings for "Upgrayedd". Please deposit $2,000 to begin connection.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 12:56 | 824062 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

BankofAmerica is up 7% this week. Should be up 25-35% by next July.... easy money. The new gold.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 15:08 | 824454 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Take a look at a five year chart of each and then hit yourself in the head for being so stupid.

Actually, let me help you: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=GLD&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=BAC

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 12:59 | 824068 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Shorter Scott Minerd: "The Eurozone is baked. The Bernank will shortly reach for a bigger hammer. And as ever, buy the dip."

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:05 | 824086 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture

Harry where are you planning to sell AAPl or SPY. What targets do you have?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:27 | 824139 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I believe that AAPL will hit 400 early next year. I am trailing it with a fairly tight stop (2% below current price) as it moves higher. 

As for SPY, I am not holding it but don't think you have to worry about it until SPX reaches 1285-1290 level. That might be the next logical point for a shallow pull back.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 14:35 | 824363 VegasBD
VegasBD's picture

"This is not the Harry you are looking for."

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 14:42 | 824385 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

Shoot, where is HamyWanger?

I want to see those two in the same room at the same time...

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 16:25 | 824673 samsara
samsara's picture

Come'on Wang,   Stops are for Pessimists

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:06 | 824087 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture

Harry where are you planning to sell AAPl or SPY. What targets and stops do you have?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:07 | 824090 elagano
elagano's picture

I just hate when people post charts that are not to scale.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:09 | 824097 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

So, today I have read 2 articles about society going cashless.  How does one make a run on the bank then?  Or will the sheeples debit card cease to function one day?? 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:09 | 824099 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Germany finds it can conquer Europe, without firing a shot. The world no longer needs a military- we only require central banks and a measure of trust.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:18 | 824101 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

"We disagree that a plunge in the EUR, which means a surge in the USD, can coexist with rising risk assets. It can't. There are literally trillions in USD funded carry positions whose unwind will result in a market correction that will obliterate the 666 lows on the S&P. There is simply no way that a drop in the Euro does not impair risk".

beauty. I'm expecting undorderly declines across the spectrum.  Like that word unorderly. Fits with the times.

 

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:11 | 824104 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

As usual....

The worse the problems in Europe....

U.S. retail stocks get even stronger....

Europeans are now cheering because their U.S. common stock investments are skyrocketing.

The retail index remains pinned at the highs, unable to sell off.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:29 | 824151 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Average Joe and Jane couldn't care less about Europe, and rightly so. What they are seeing is job security and a new found sense of relief that we will be just fine here. That has led to a strong buying binge, hence retail stocks flying.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 14:01 | 824262 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

BWAHAHAHAHAH! "Harry Wanger" is a pseudonym for Ben Benanke or Obama!

 

What they are seeing is job security and a new found sense of relief that we will be just fine here. That has led to a strong buying binge, hence retail stocks flying.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 14:02 | 824264 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Funny you should say that, as it is precisely indicative of the level of ignorance among the broader population. Job security? Yes... if one equates a part time job with security.

Luckily, most people in America are not as stupid as you suggest and realize that the recovery is a "part time" one based on unrepayable government leverage.

Charting America's Transformation To A Part-Time Worker Society, Following 6 Straight Months Of Full Time Job Declines

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 14:25 | 824333 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Luckily, most people in America are not as stupid as you suggest and realize that the recovery is a "part time" one based on unrepayable government leverage.

You are dead wrong on that assumption. Look, I have seen discretionary spending this past Q surpass even our strongest years of 2004-2007. Either people are as "stupid as I suggest" or they are very comfortable with their economic situation. Based upon the discussions I've had with clients and distributors, Joe and Jane are as comfortable with their job security as I have seen in years.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 14:30 | 824350 malikai
malikai's picture

I think Joe and Jane have been sipping too much eggnogg. I think it will all come crashing down shortly. But first, let's party!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 15:36 | 824526 DosZap
DosZap's picture

malikai,

Bingo, Americans are largely children mentally.

They have pulled in their horns, paid down their debt, and now, are spending again, those that can, with abandon.

One LAST FIX, after 2yrs of self imposed austerity, and debt paydowns they think they DESERVE some good TIMES.

They will get it, Big "0" will get credit, and we all go back to the real world.

Broke as a dead dik dog.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 14:37 | 824370 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

Of course, it could be the case that your personal experience is not indicative of the overall behavior of the nations economy. I'm sure you've considered that though...

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 15:16 | 824496 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

3RD quarter GDP shows personal expenditures are down and inventories are up. I know you like to shill, but it would improve you're standing if you knew when to shill and when to shut up.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 15:20 | 824509 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Either you are a liar (something I am inclined to believe, as you a literally a professional troll, writing papers on the "psychology of permabears"), or your business is being buoyed by spending from federal workers.

My area was the last one into the depression, and should be the first one out, as we have (relatively) outstanding governance here.  There is no recovery here.  Unemployment remains high.  No-one but the "ultra rich" are spending.  New businesses are not opening up.  Existing businesses are not hiring.  On the rare occasion that I have been hiring, I get more applicants each time.

So yeah, your story is just that, a story.  Fiction.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:08 | 824771 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112723/Gallup-Daily-US-Consumer-Spending.aspx

Spending data. Most recent available was 12/17/10. People are spending about $70 per day. For 12/17/2009, people were spending about $73 per day.

Point being, you're completely full of shit or extremely ignorant.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:31 | 825260 crazyjsmith
crazyjsmith's picture

WOW WangChung, you even got TD to post a comment regarding your ignorance.  Congrats!!  Nothing like a little bit of Chart Therapy to slap some reality back into the conversation.

 

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:35 | 825265 akak
akak's picture

You are dead wrong on that assumption. Look, I have seen discretionary spending this past Q surpass even our strongest years of 2004-2007. Either people are as "stupid as I suggest" or they are very comfortable with their economic situation. Based upon the discussions I've had with clients and distributors, Joe and Jane are as comfortable with their job security as I have seen in years.

Fuck you, you utterly lying piece of shit troll, if you expect ANYONE here to believe such complete and total, wildly absurd bullshit.  There are permabulls, and then there is permabullshit.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:05 | 879955 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

Largest increases in US income has been in exports (weak dollar) and in defense outlays. With a $80 billion restructuring of Department of Defense (DOD) this year cuts will be felt in the DC area which is heavily invested in defense and security businesses.

The DC area is looking @ 15- 20,000 DOD- and related layoffs along with local government cuts. What the Feds will do to/with Fannie/Freddie is also a question mark. Restructuring these entities will cost 20,000+ jobs and more downstream.

This area has long been considered 'recession proof' because of the immense Federal presence but real estate values have declined 20% since the 2007 peak. Many government related tech contract jobs have been lost. Construction is down + 50%. Commercial RE has the highest vacancy rate since 1990's recession w/ retail sector bombed except in a few 'high end' locales.

High fuel and food (embedded fuel) costs are diverting funds from other consumables. There is no comfort here, only increasing anxiety as people realize the District area is no different from anywhere else in the country.

Please keep telling us how things are in Beverly Hills.

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