Sean Corrigan's Commodities Corner

Tyler Durden's picture

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narapoiddyslexia's picture

Global oil production has been flat for seven years.

See http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8044

narapoiddyslexia's picture

Global production has been flat for seven years. If you have other data show it. Otherwise go fix a bike.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Who supplied the data you are using?  Who funds the data suppliers?  What are the motives of these people?

Wake the fuck up.

-273's picture

My god you cracked it repairman, its a conspiracy! The 89 million barrels of oil we use each day is really being replenished! dam those oil companies and oligarchs! It's great to be awake and know we can keep on growing the world economies exponentially thanks to plentiful cheap oil! To hell with EROEI! Dam their fake depletion rates, stupid England for faking the north sea oil peaking and becoming a net importer and becoming poorer by the day as a result! it's all a conspiracy!

If this is how you think when awake, better off just sleeping through it all man.

Look at the drop in production of the countries in this list, yes it's compiled by BP but most of this is common knowledge in the oil industry. Why would countries wish to become net oil importers? Egypt becoming a net importer this year was partly what led to the riots as the government had no more oil revenue so had to cut subsidies on food and fuel:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576

 

narapoiddyslexia's picture

Bicycle Repairman is almost certainly a paid troll. Obvious technique. They love this site.

SWRichmond's picture

Peak Oilers are morons.  Or worse, they are shills for the oil business, paid to preserve the mysterious sanctity of oil, to explain why we should remain willing to invade and kill for it.

Which means that most peak oilers are useful idiots.

-273's picture

If you have the ability to understand it (I'm sure you do, it's not that complicated), watch this video and then come back and tell me if you still think the same:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

Bicycle Repairman's picture

I'm not a paid troll.  Information is power.  Data on Oil reserves are state secrets.  Money can be made manipulating markets and people.  Do you think the powerful will simply share this information?

-273's picture

Your right man, all these broke net importing oil countries are just keeping all their oil secret for future generations. Maybe the Greek elites should forget that though and just dig deep under their islands and start tapping all that Abiotic oil, money problem solved.

Back to reality and that information is power thing you speak of, only 14 out of 54 oil producing countries and regions in the world continue to increase production, while 30 are definitely past their production peak, and the remaining 10 appear to have flat or declining production [1]. Put another way, peak oil is real in 61% of the oil producing world when weighted by production.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

"only 14 out of 54 oil producing countries and regions in the world continue to increase production"

Who controls the production?

"while 30 are definitely past their production peak"

Again, who supplied your information?

"and the remaining 10 appear to have flat or declining production"

According to whom?

I know these guys would never lie to you.  Go back to sleep.

-273's picture

Shit you got me man, every country must clearly be lying!! Why didnt I see that before?!! Forget the bicycles, you should become a car mechanic, invest in your long term future.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

"Shit you got me man"

Exactly.

-273's picture

lol, only person you are fooling is yourself. It's good to be a skeptic, but dont be an idiot, clearly you cant take 89 million barrels of oil a day out of the ground indefinitely now can you ace.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

"Look at the drop in production of the countries in this list, yes it's compiled by BP but most of this is common knowledge in the oil industry."

Oil industry? You mean the handful of people who run the industry?

"Why would countries wish to become net oil importers?" 

Do third world countries get to have their wishes?  How about first world countries?

-273's picture

Ah, I get it, the third world countries must keep their oil in the ground hidden, same with the 1st world countries right? Your logic is mesmerising. The only way oil companies are keeping their reserves up is by taking over other smaller oil companies, they are not finding any new supergiant fields. Since the mid 1980s, annual production has been greater than annual discoveries. Replace your theories with maths and it should be quite clear where we are heading.

Sparkey's picture

Wonderful writing, beautiful charts, I can only hope his optimism is founded on more than hope and wishful thinking.

Unfortunately I'm afraid this fellow (below) has a chart which perhaps tells a clearer view of our reality.                                                  There are many who seek to treat reality as irrelevant, "It's what you believe that creates reality" they've been taught and  believe this, and implicit in their approach is a confidence that their repertoire of nostrums has, (fueled by their beliefs), unlimited power to ward off unwelcome realities.

I don't think the world works like that, I also think that, probably, there are no modern men, (myself included), who have a clear encompassing view of reality that is not shaded by the relentless programing of all media, like the way the things in our food permeates our physical beings, so are our minds being shaped by the thoughts, and desires being embedded in our core without our conscious knowledge, certainly without our permission. We have imagination to solve the problems reality raises, we cannot conger reality we must react to it!

Take a look at this, it really seems it could well be the end result of the trends I've noticed over the last sixty years!

http://jayhanson.us/page125.htm

Orly's picture

That's just silly.  The idea assumes that what we know is a permanent reality and that nothing we can not possibly imagine could ever happen to the energy availibility, space and time travel and on and on.

When it comes time, take stock in the Mr. Fusion company.  You won't regret it!

el Gallinazo's picture

If you can't dazzle them with your dance steps, then baffle them with your bullshit. Corrigan must write this drivel for the NY Times Pulitzer Prize winning economic journalists who will appreciate his refined literary style.

malek's picture

He has put all his arguments in the essay, you should read it once more.

For completeness please also give us your opinion on the continued falsehood of doomer predictions, for example The Club of Rome since the early 70's.

Crawdaddy's picture

I agree it is great writing and I dig the direction his argument travels. A similar argument here:

http://www.polyconomics.com/ssu/ssu-041030.htm

By Jude Wanniski

Before the US abandoned the gold standard on 15 August 1971, there had been a traditional relationship between gold and oil: One ounce could be exchanged for 15 barrels.

The relationship had held steady for decades as the US fixed the dollar price of gold at $35 and the world oil price fluctuated narrowly around the $2.50 a barrel mark.

Since 1971, the gold/oil relationship began to vary as the US dollar "floated" on international currency exchanges, but until recently it still moved around that 1-to-15 ratio.

Now, an ounce of gold at $420 (when this essay was written) buys only eight barrels of oil at $52 a barrel (bbl). Around the world, industrial and financial analysts are puzzling over why this has happened.

Does it mean a new, permanent shift in the traditional relationship? Is it the result of a coincidental series of supply interruptions due to hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and strikes in Nigeria, compounded by the geopolitical threats in the Middle East?

Is it the sudden demand for energy in the rapidly growing economies of China and India, where two billion people have developed a great thirst for energy? Is the world running out of easy-to-get, cheap oil?

None of these questions lead to satisfactory answers.

...follow the link the see the rest

 

 

 

 

 

long-shorty's picture

Don't worry. The more we consume, the more reserves will increase. For ever and ever. Amen.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

That's right.  Have you figured out why?

Orly's picture

Because crude oil is not derived from dead dinosaurs but instead bubbles up from the center of the Earth?

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Beause the people who know the truth feed misinformation to "nosy" people to keep the "nosy" people chasing their tails.

Orly's picture

Kinda like lumping "Warmers," "Truthers," "Birthers" and "Peakers" into the same category so that the CIA and DHS trolls don't have to work so hard?

Wow. What a revelation!  You mean to say that those people are lazy?

Misinformation.  Whoda thunk?

el Gallinazo's picture

Orly, I have been following your comments and you are a very bright woman. There is a physicist by the name of Brooks Agnew ( Ph. D. from BYU) who stipulates that the earth is, in fact, hollow, and there are 208 races of sentient beings that live on the inner face of the crust. Among them are the lost tribes of Israel. This can be found by looking his name up in the Italian Wikipedia and then asking them to translate it into English. So assuming that Dr. Agnew has this correct, my theory is that these sentient beings have manual fluid pumps and are trying to pump more crude oil back into our depleted reserves as fast a they can. Otherwise, the oil we have already extracted will induce a low pressure area in the mantle and create a devastating climate change for them on the inner face of the earth's crust. I am rather surprised that Mr. Corrigan didn't refer to these near indisputable theories to back up his arguments.

Orly's picture

Shows you what you know, which is apparently not a whole lot.

What we call crude oil is the by-product of a pressure differential between the surface tension of our planet and the intense heat at the core.  It bubbles up because it is relatively light and rock near the surface is relatively porous.

I suppose that you would rather believe that there are 208 missing species of humans beneath the surface.  It is possible.  Maybe their mode of transport is to ride around on the 1.88 billion T. Rexs that are down there- or maybe they can be like Fred Flinststone and simply use the 18.47 billion Allosauri as bridges and slide down their necks to get from place to place.

At the rate of global oil-reserve discovery, it should be apparent that there must have been a massive overpopulation in dinosaurs on (or in...) our planet.  With such an obvious warning to modern man, I am very surprised that some good-intentioned leftist hasn't picked up on that yet.

Someone get Al Gore on the phone.  Tell him I have his next boondoggle...erm...documentary right here in my head!  Alert him that the lost tribes of Israel must be drowning in dinosaur shit.

el Gallinazo's picture

Orly, this was suppose to be humor. Guess it didn't work :-( Of course it is totally ridiculous, but the article Tyler chose to post was ridiculous, so it was appropriate. However the part about Brooks Agnew is real and his exploits make amusing reading.

Orly's picture

I understand and I thank you very kindly for helping me make my points very clear, Gallinazo.

I hope I wasn't mean but I wasn't speaking to you directly, really.  I was speaking to all the people who don't understand that the Earth is a living being beyond the comprehension of modern man and to believe that we understand her, in our limited and basic capacity, is absurd.

I thank you for throwing the absurdity into the mix.

Please have a wonderful week!

:D

Bicycle Repairman's picture

The deep water Horizon rig was drilling below 10,000 feet.  BP stuck quite a bit of highly pressurized oil.  No dinosaurs or plant matter have ever lived below 10,000.

Nor have any races of humans, I might add.

Orly's picture

"...quite a bit of highly pressurized oil."

The lost tribes have a hella manual pump action working, I guess.  But even if they're below 10,000 feet, how can they breathe?

All kidding aside, it seems sort of sad that very, very bright people- petrochemical engineers- hold to the tenets of what they had been taught to believe.  There are petrochemical engineers in my family, so I can attest to their ability to reason but, in this instance, they are allowing what amounts to a religious fervor to cloud their ideas when the mathematics (of all things...) clearly shows that the idea of "fossil fuels" is totally bogus.

Just read some of the posts in this thread and it is plain to see that many of us have some emotional interest invested in this belief.

Has anyone done the calculations of how much algae, how many dinosuars and how many pine trees would be necessary to deposit so much fossil fuel?  An earnest algebraic formula would clearly demonstrate that it would take multiple billions of years to deposit that amount of fuel below the surface of the Earth.  The closest calculation I can find is that the Earth became a living being only about three billion years ago- not 37 billion years ago, as would be necessary to create these deposits.

What tipped me off into thinking about it was the exact same fervor I experience back in '02, when I started to question the validity of the government's assessment of 911.  Firefighters, teachers, people from all walks of life simply refused to believe that their government would lie to them in such an unholy way.  Now, it seems quite obvious to anyone who seriously thinks about it that the US government not only lied about it, they had a direct hand in making it happen.

Same thing here; very smart and honest people simply refuse to believe anything other than what they have been told.  In ten years, maybe it will become obvious to everyone as well that there is no "Peak Oil," that the Earth replenishes its own supply of what humans call "fuels" and that the idea that dead dinosuars make oil is embarrassingly silly.

"No dinosaurs or plant matter have ever lived below 10,000."

As my father used to say, "I rest my case."

BigJim's picture

No dinosaurs or plant matter have ever lived below 10,000.

Please tell me you're kidding me.

http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/geology/anim1.html

francis_sawyer's picture

What a fucking load of horseshit...

"The point of this digression—beyond its own entertainment value—is that oil has no value whatsoever, outside of that conferred upon it by the  imagination and dedication of acting men who have found ways to make it meet one of Man’s most enduring needs—for a reliable and easily transported store of energy."

---

Yeah, my fucking penis has no value either (outside of...)

 

 

 

W T Effington's picture

If you or no one else has any use for your penis then it has no value economically. You shouldn't talk about your penis like that. I am sure its not that bad.

francis_sawyer's picture

OK then it oes have value...

I'll use the "authors" words & place its value as "that conferred upon it by the imagination and dedication of acting men who have found ways to make it meet one of Man’s most enduring needs"...

---

But the dude wasn't talking about the fallacy of PEAK PENIS theory... Instead - he just seems to want a Pulitzer for writing, essentially, about his technical analysis of candlestick charts...

 

 

W T Effington's picture

Peak Penis Theory would be an interesting topic, in a totally not gay way. I wonder if all the charts would look like a steep bell curve.

francis_sawyer's picture

Well anyway... I don't want to harsh out on the guy... But Jesus Tapdancing Christ... If your charts tell you that silver is going to $26 then just SAY IT (& spare us all the crap)...

Orly's picture

Link don't work, yo.

Hohum's picture

And, of course, the cost of all extracted oil is the same.

chistletoe's picture

This is canard no #1 whenever anyone -- anyone -- tries to refute "peak oil"

(which is no longer a theory, but simple fact)..

Always, they start by discussing the known quantity of recoverable reserves.

 

Neither Hubbert nor Matt Simmons nor any of the other myriad illuminati

who have discussed peak oil

 

ever, ever, ever said anything about known reserves.

"Peak oil" refers to the quantity over time of the commodity which can be produced.

It refers to "maximum flow".

The case is now open and shut.  The peak in the continental US took place, just as predicted, in 1973.  And the world peak took place, just as predicted, in the middle of the first decade of the 21st century.

Anyone, absolutely anyone,  who wants to argue differently has a hidden agenda up his sleeve,

in the great tradition of patent medicines, perpetual motion machines,

recharging your lightning rods, or selling you a bridge ....

Bicycle Repairman's picture

LOL.  I'm not buying a Prius and you can't make me.

HungrySeagull's picture

I ain't buying a car that fits in the short bed pickup truck either

Event Horizon's picture

The State will buy you a Volt with your own money ,, err debt

css1971's picture

I think his point is that when oil becomes too expensive. We'll replace it with something else; natural gas, electric power etc.