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Sean Corrigan's Letter To All The "Idiots" Who Believe The Japanese Calamity Will "Prove Positive For GDP"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

All the sophist idiots (Corrigan's word not ours) in the media and the bleeding edge of financial lemmingdom who believe there could be no greater boon to global economy than the death and suffering of hundreds of thousands (you know who you are) are kindly requested to read the following missive from Diapason's Sean Corrigan who cleanly and clinically blows out this latest moronic piece of uber-false groupthink out of the water.

Fraom Sean Corrigan of Diapason Securities

Rather than pretending to a level of insight into the scale of Japan's problems which neither we nor anyone else truly possesses at this stage of the disaster, we think it might be worth while instead to run through some general considerations of what ramifications might be felt in its aftermath.

Before we do, however, we cannot abstain from expressing our utter contempt for the many idiots who have already begun parroting the standard Keynesian nonsense that this calamity will ultimately 'prove positive for GDP', or that the rebuilding efforts can only redound to the nation's well-being to the extent that they shake it out of its ongoing 'deflation'.

As is their wont, such imbecile Cargo Culters are once again making a fetish of a coarse-grained statistic which is supposed—however imperfectly—to offer a rough measure of material progress being made in the real economy and not the converse, leading them to lose all focus on what is actually happening to people's living standards and wealth accumulation.

Japan has been stricken with a huge loss of productive capital—as well as an appalling toll of human suffering—and this cannot do anything other than to leave the nation discernibly poorer and, by extension, to curtail its ability to make people across the world better off than they otherwise would be by offering them valuable goods and services as part of that beneficent mutual enrichment which is the international division of labour, conducted under conditions of free(ish) exchange.

Contrary to popular belief, the Japanese have not, in fact, been trapped in a deflationary slough of stagnation these past two decades as both the real and nominal supply of money have risen throughout his period (with the exception of the worst months of the GFC itself), while real per capita  national income has also increased modestly, especially on a PPP, or TWI-adjusted basis. Granted, the consumer price basket has trended lower at a rate of less than 1% a year, but this is something which is presumably no more than a reflection of ongoing productivity gains—ones delivered, to boot, in a country formerly marvelled at for the extreme levels of its domestic pricing.

But, even were we to subscribe to this myth of secular slump, the idea that to eradicate a large quantum of people's possessions or to evaporate a sizeable fraction of their nest-eggs would be to contribute to their prosperity is to reckon that in futilely striving to heft his rock up the hill for all eternity, Sisyphus was the most tireless 'engine of growth' for Hades at large.

If you go to the trouble of cooking yourself a dinner, only for the dog to snatch it from the sill where you placed it to cool, do you congratulate yourself on your own good fortune as you troop back to the larder to begin again? If a sudden hailstorm strips bare the groaning ears of your wheat crop the day before you were due to harvest it, do you cheerily go about preparing the field for replanting, content in the knowledge that your doubled labour is being duly recorded in the plus column by a mindless government data-gatherer?

After all, if the awful spectacle of vast swathes of land littered with shattered buildings and crumpled vehicles—or the concern that they suffer the invisible hazards of radioactive contamination—offers such grand opportunities for advancement, why stop there?

Why wait for the vagaries of the climate, or the tortured creaking of continental plates to bring about such a 'stimulus' to growth? Why not declare war on ourselves and unleash our titanic arsenals of destruction on our own towns and cities, and rain down hellfire upon our own farms and gardens, razing the first to the ground and sowing the last with salt, until we make a self-inflicted Carthage of them, one in whose midst we can hope to become rapidly richer than our neighbours as, shivering and starving, we pick our way among the debris of our former civilisation to the nearest construction site?

This is all such arrant nonsense that you should banish from your consideration, henceforth and forever, all of the jejune scribblings of the fool whom you once catch propounding it!

But enough of this! The real crux of the matter is to look at the two sides of Japan, Inc.—both as a user (and end-consumer) of certain goods and as a provider of often highly-valued and not easily replicated material inputs to the world economy in exchange.

All else being equal, the country will be consuming some goods (e.g., lumber, steel, copper wire, concrete, fossil fuel) far more directly in the near future and, moreover, consuming them with little onward production of value from their use.
 
The first order effect of this would be expected to push up preferentially the prices of both the materials they will be absorbing and those whose production by them is temporarily being reduced.

Conversely, the consumption patterns of the ordinary Japanese will also suffer a compositional shift away from the enjoyment of certain goods and services and, ceteris paribus, the prices of these should be less well supported as a consequence.

Where they no longer supply goods to the market—initially being completely unable to do so, perhaps, and, later, devoting selectively less resources to that production as they first tackle the problems of rebuilding—there is certainly scope for their competitors to prosper, but also significant dangers that the partial or total absence of such goods will disrupt production in factories and fab plants elsewhere, too. [Incidentally, the possible fall in the external surplus this comprises is one offset for the fabled yen 'repatriation' flows which the market so fears].

In short, where Japan's goods are competing for sales, others may benefit at her expense: where they are complementary to them, they will equally share in her ruin. In the counter-weighting of these two factors will be decided the first question of whether output suffers beyond her shores and of what impetus is given to what prices.

By confounding entrepreneurial planning, dislocating production schedules, hampering timely onward delivery, etc., the damage could be wide spread and should certainly belie Monday's initial market insouciance. Given that profitable production is the only true source of sustainable consumption and that business-to-business spending is normally a good multiple of what is captured in the blessed GDP numbers, the earthquake-induced fall in Japanese incomes could soon be reflected elsewhere, too.

Where business planning (and the structure of financial exposures which embody this) has been too casual in its concern for such upsets (however unforeseeable the particulars of this one were), such frictions can rapidly mount to the point where they strip the drive-train of all further functionality and the firm finds itself staring failure in the face.

In this context, we again must draw attention to the alarming upsurge in pestilential credit practices—such as cov-lite, loans, PIK notes, PE dividend-stripping, and buoyant junk financing in general—which so exacerbated the last bust and which have been allowed to re-infect the economic corpus with the active cheerleading of its central banks, especially the one housed in the Mariner Eccles building.

Furthermore, financial markets have entered this crisis having only grudgingly tempered their inordinate, Fed-fostered levels of bullishness (that, as a result of the Arab unrest) and with leverage, carry-trades, and crowding therefore all notably elevated.

A narrow replay of the kind of crash which followed the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1907 are perhaps not to be looked for in the absence of a hard money kernel to the pyramid of credit, but that is not to say that 'contagion' and the forced liquidation concomitant with it cannot course through other financial channels instead, especially since people are all too aware of the continued fragility of the associated plumbing, even here, on the third anniversary of the Bear Stearns bail out.
 
One obvious fracture plane could be the finances of Japan itself, a legacy of two decades of failed New Deals whose eventual unravelling has been exciting the attention of the bears for some good while since. The usual defence is that Japan 'owes much of the debt to itself' - a macro-accounting identity which an Austrian is willing to concede while questioning its practical validity.

That some elements of Japanese society have debts greatly in excess of assets (principally, the state) while others (mainly in the private sector) are in the opposite condition is only a comfort inasmuch as it reduces the nation's exposure to the vicissitudes of the forex market or to the vagaries of offshore investor sentiment.

Thus, while it may provide a convenient smoke-screen under the cover of which today's hard-won savings are funnelled to Leviathan, there to plug the holes left by the squandering of yesterday's savings, as well as to disburse the doles from which a good percentage of tomorrow's savings are, in turn, generated, this quadrillion yen round-robin cannot permanently disguise the chronic nature and mind- stretching scale of the capital consumption it entails.

The circling financial vultures are therefore looking forward to the moment when domestic Japanese investment is no more sufficient to absorb all the government's issues, (without perhaps contemplating the drain on the other improvidents when the giant, state-owned—or state-cajoled—institutions sell their USTs and kangaroo bonds, and realise their Nasdaq holdings and Eurobank CoCos in the effort to plug this gap).

What they now anticipate is that the costs likely to arise in the course of rebuilding the nation cannot fail to have advanced the date of that long-awaited morrow when the piper must be paid and JGB yields start to soar in consequence (even though, were we consistent, the Keynesian theory of fruitful holocaust would suggest 'growth' could, meanwhile, repair the finances painlessly).

In this, they may even be right, yet their position-ing may well not survive to see the great denoue-ment, for the route to a complete breakdown in the Japanese fiscal position surely lies through the Nihonbashi and the unbridled monetization powers of the BOJ.

Indeed, the additional threat posed to the economy—not just of Japan, but on those of all of its foreign trading partners—is not so much that the government runs out of cash, but that the whole country comes to drown in the stuff.

Indeed, while recognising the short-term, emergency need to reassure people that they willcon-tinue to have access to a medium of exchange and a functioning payments system, it is more than a little worrisome that the Bank has doubled its long-term QE programme, citing a desire to 'pre-empt a deterioration in business sentiment... from adversely affecting economic activity' and to '...make contributions...' in order to '...overcome deflation...'
 
As we wrote of a New Zealand whose own afflic-tion has been swiftly forgotten in this larger trag-edy, no good can come of a policy which can only serve to add to the confusion and bewilderment already occasioned by the violence of the tectonic shift in trying to suppress—by means of a crude resort to the printing press—the all-too evident fact that Japan is less well endowed with capital than it was and thus, that interest rates should naturally rise to reflect this inescapable verity.

It is not Yen that Japan now finds itself short of, but potable water, medical supplies, bridging materials, constructional steel, and electric power. The BOJ cannot help deliver these more readily or more efficiently by debauching the currency via its attempt to divorce financial asset prices from the diminished earning potential they incorporate.

Similarly perilous is the incitement this will give to the pump-primers elsewhere in maintaining- or even extending—their own easing programmes. Nor will they be consistent in this for, if they conveniently ignore the rise in food and energy prices, they will just as conveniently point to any liquidation-induced falls in these groupings to confirm the accuracy of their interpretation. On top of this, the many extant doves will be only too happy to protract their tenure as supposed saviours of the universe by enacting extra easing measures should Japan's woes conspire to slow the upward momentum in the local recovery

Do not write-off QE-III just yet.

 

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Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:34 | 1057828 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

I just had a totally badass idea.  

35 million fucking people are about to become homeless inTokyo when all hell breaks loose.   We have 7-8 million homes in foreclosure (back of the envelope calculations from last year's memory so correct me if I'm wrong).

USA cuts a deal with Japan.   COMPLETE forgiveness of all UST's in exchange (+ every ounce of gold you got) for the houses and settlement priviliges for all Japanese refugees.  

Japan takes care of their people. USA wipes out debt.  Everyone wins. (Except for the predatory speculators)

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:37 | 1057838 Hacked Economy
Hacked Economy's picture

Interesting...The vacant homes get filled, the homeless get roof over their heads.  Sounds good at first glance.

Wait a minute!  Didn't we offer the Japanese "accommodations" here during WWII as well?  They didn't like it back then...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:38 | 1057847 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

You mean the camps we put them into. Yeah, no one is a big fan of being forced into a camp no matter which way you phrase it lol.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 01:55 | 1059528 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

But what if we painted all the buildings with Hello Kitty's on them?  Hello Kitty is quite popular in Japan.  There is Hello Kitty motor oil, Hello Kitty sex toys, Hello Kitty theme parks, and now there could be a Hello Kitty camp.  Don't think of it as an interment camp, think of it as Hello Kitty Housing.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 03:26 | 1059672 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Hello Kitty core melt down nuclear reactors...

Hello Kitty glow in the dark radio active rice...

Hello Kitty three-eyed sashimi...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:42 | 1057851 strannick
strannick's picture

And when they're all at school, think how bad our kids will feel about themselves when they realize how bad they are at math

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:42 | 1057862 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

We'll need black business suits. Lots and lots of black business suits.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:22 | 1058633 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

This idiocy needs to stop. If interest rates continue to rise and borrowing costs become excessive there is no guarantee that any of this will ever be rebuilt. The only reason to say this is if you INTEND to manipulate markets higher and you need an excuse

If a scale 9 earthquake and the biggest tsunami in a hundred years is such a great opportunity, let's nuke em.

But would anybody who thinks this is such a great opportunity do us all the favour of visiting the place just before we do it...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:58 | 1057922 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

but they have "such small penis" which is the only math Americans care about

 

http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/103420/japanese-charm

 

"so small"

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:06 | 1058243 strannick
strannick's picture

They make standard look like metric. 2 + 2 = 6"

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:29 | 1058704 Jaw Knee Cash
Jaw Knee Cash's picture

The persistent broken window fallacy that Bastiat covered in 1850 or so. Did the atomic bombs in 1945 also "prove + for the Japanese GDP"?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 08:10 | 1059926 XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

Did the atomic bombs in 1945 also "prove + for the Japanese GDP"?

Oddly enough, yes, but only because it brought an end to the idiotic war, and gave them a constitution that prevented more idiotic wars.

Unfortunately, it didn't prevent the development of idiotic politicians. But that is a problem the world over. If this crisis has shown anything, it is that indisputably, wherever you are in the world, Baby Boomers are incompetent morons.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 23:08 | 1058931 robobbob
robobbob's picture

Yeah, but this time many of them will be McMansions

some never even lived in

friends again?

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 12:11 | 1066914 DosZap
DosZap's picture

They would think they had died and gone to heaven.

Their houses compraed to the ones we have vacant, are about 25%+/- less in size, with ZERO yards.

Yeas, they were interred,by the Nazi bstd FDR.

He also wanted to do rthe same to the German Americans, except they made up a HUGE portion of the population,( way to big to handle)and were off fighting the Germans.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 12:14 | 1066930 mliu_01
mliu_01's picture

what is fema camp?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:43 | 1057843 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

Maybe you were thinking China, not Japan. Because Japan owns very little of treasuries (around 300 billion if I recall). Japan has been trying to get over their own economic depression that has been on going for 20+ years. They don't have any sort of finances that would even come close to paying off the United States debt.

btw. that wasn't me who junked you silver. I don't agree with junking unless someone says something completely ridiculous. I don't consider your idea bad at all. Just wish it was possible to fix our debt problems.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:53 | 1057868 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

WRONG:  Japan owns 882 Billion in UST's  as of the last major chart published at ZH.

[Edit: that sounded a little too harsh and your not Chumba or one of the stockboys so I'll be reasonably polite ;-) ]

Not too worried about getting junked.  To me this just seemed like a nice idea for humantiarian aid (sell at a slight discount)

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:57 | 1058512 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Doesn't that value each home at something like $20,000-$30,000 each?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:01 | 1058540 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Officially they have 765 tonnes of Gold Reserves.  Piddling but it's something.  There is also the question of Yamashita's gold and they could bargain with other items for purchasing rights. 

Would you rather be broke, penniless and starting over or wealthy and irridated and probably die of cancer?

Be prepared to lose everything, TWICE in your life.

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:21 | 1058653 Jaw Knee Cash
Jaw Knee Cash's picture

In my experience, it would be at least 3 times.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 01:15 | 1059422 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

Irradiated gold moved to Fort Knox... Wasn't there a Bond film...?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:04 | 1058552 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

Oh, just enough to pay 5 cents for every dollar we have spent! And, when they get the homes that our wonderful, patriotic banks forced families out of......I'm sure that will boil over without one burn!  

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:38 | 1057845 reader2010
reader2010's picture

That would be too fucking terrific for the banks. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:44 | 1057867 Count Laszlo
Count Laszlo's picture

It'd make for a great movie concept. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:05 | 1057903 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Great idea! Plus the Japanese make great stuff which we will have to begin making again once the yuan gets depegged. (They buy lousy reactors though...:)

For anyone interested in following the weather systems by satellite here is northern Pacific Ocean infrared spectrum. Shows heat and atmospheric moisture well. 

Select the dot for 111 images... and hit "play".

Japan is in the upper left hand corner and just visible in the gray area.

This is a two day run so if the radioactive elements are around 10,000 feet or so they are already two thirds of the way or more across.

Seattle to all Alaska... that's the North American 'landing zone' right now for the stuff that doesn't get rained out over the ocean.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_pac_1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:43 | 1058100 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

The reason they have such lousy reactors is because they bought American

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:59 | 1058206 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

I guess one has to start somewhere when designing big civilian reactors from scratch. 40 years is a long life for a reactor so perhaps I shouldn't shit on old GE technology other than the absence of multiple shutdown redundancies and the anticipation that an earthquake could be followed by a giant diesel engine choking tsunami.

But they had 40 years to recognize and correct that problem.

This is quickly becoming a living nightmare for tens of millions and a probable death sentence for the brave souls working closest to the reactors.

Fuck. Just fuck.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:56 | 1058515 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Ditto for Boeing and those flying deathtrap 747s, to think these pigs (who can fly) have been overhead for nigh unto 41 years.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:41 | 1058759 duo
duo's picture

The conventional wisdom was until 2004 that subduction-thrust-fault deep-water 9.0M earthquakes only happened in Chile or Alaska, therefore giant tsunamis weren't considered a threat.

Some precautions and backup systems could have been prepared after the 2004 quake, but TEPCO was in the middle of a scandal involving radiation leaks, deferred maintenance, etc., and nothing happened (a big-ass seawall would have done nicely).

Now it's believed that a 30-foot tsunami could hit any part of the Pacific or Indian oceans.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 17:07 | 1063118 citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

Totally agree on fuck. Double fuck even. I have a friend there and like a hopeful, wannabe helpful moron, sent him the non-MIT, MIT-branded "Why I am not worried" article. Shit. 

Check out interesting article in NYT on 1970s' contemporaneous criticism of GE's BWR design (link below), indicating (if I remember correctly) pressures on regulators to approve less robust than desired design to satisfy cost cutting concerns (i.e., profits). 

I guess with things nuclear, a 40-year time horizon is not enough. Sure seemed long enough back then. Yikes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16contain.html?_r=1

 

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 12:20 | 1066950 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Gee, I guess that old diddy, GE brings good things to life, doesn't apply here.

It was sub par NEW, and they knew it was.

GE, used to be a great American company, now its a wag dog for Immelt, kissing Owammmys ass, like a poodle.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 13:52 | 1072254 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Good find! thanks!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:43 | 1058767 Jaw Knee Cash
Jaw Knee Cash's picture

GE to be specific. They "bring good things to" death.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:05 | 1057951 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

Brilliant.  Maybe you should work for the Federal Reserve or run for federal office.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:07 | 1057965 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

even better....we can hire our own people to dismantle the houses, and then ship them to japan for quick reassembly

 

biwinning the future bitches

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:28 | 1058377 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Holy fuck yes.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:09 | 1057972 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Is this called Californication?   (  Red Hot Chili Peppers)

 

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:27 | 1058041 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Lol.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:55 | 1058497 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

Where they going to work?   35 million more on full entitlements

Fantastic idea.....you should declare your candicacy

Now if we could trade our 35 million in jail....................

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:06 | 1058556 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Pretty sure they would displace illegal aliens in a heartbeat.   Would you rather have polite and hardworking Japanese neighbors with a penchant for gardening and a mania for order?  Or would you prefer illegal aliens that work their a$$ off, live 20 to a rental house and then drink an ungodly percentage of wages away and play mariachi music at fucking 3 AM for neighbors?  

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:22 | 1058649 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Sushi, gyo'za and / or any other food... dont forget they can bar-b-que..

 

I say open the Country to all of Japan, we could do a lot worse and they have been good friends.. after the dust settled..

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:13 | 1058609 chump666
chump666's picture

what is probably going to happen is Japan will repatriate all it's holdings on everything and draw money back into the country.

So, they won't fund Indonesia, Vietnam...and of course Europe and the US debt.  Should eventually send EZ and US into a fiscal hellstorm...and they'll just print, inflation overkill doomsday etc etc

Japan will just shut their doors and try and rebuild. 

Some historian was dropping that lowdown...not some dumb arse economist.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 01:28 | 1059453 pamriallc
pamriallc's picture

Japan's GDP will gain in YEN terms from an adjustment of probably 5-6% negative from where it is today.  That's assured.  What's also true is that the country was unwittingly bombed into submission in WW2 much the same way Germany was  during the same timeframe.  Interestingly enough.....using Nazi Germany as an GDP numbers shortly after the end of WW2.

History is well on the side of GDP actually benefitting from the rebuilding and all of the ancillary business that comes from reconstruction, modernization, and efficiencies gained from the new Japan for many years to come.

Will they take GDP hits in the next two quarters?  Of course they will.  Does Japan's economy begin taking off in fits and starts as the rebuilding process brgins and China and intra-Asia trade begin to accelerate through a moderate global recovery in the next 4-5 years on top of that?  Of course.  More people equates to more GDP production.

Consider that the vast history which is written will far outweigh the current negativism which permeates Japan (from the outside) today.

Shawn A. Mesaros, Pamria, LLC

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 02:47 | 1059634 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Worship at the alter of GDP much? Maybe not everyone judges happiness and well-being through units of GDP.

And what will their debt look like after this magical reconstruction and recovery?

And maybe you could wait until after this all ends to give investment advice?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 10:38 | 1060463 h3m1ngw4y
h3m1ngw4y's picture

This idea is great even without a jubilee.

If only China and Japan would be best friends. Lots of empty cities to dwell in.

Or perhaps the Chinese  have better foresight. Are Ghost cities built for a disaster like this?

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:36 | 1057831 mynhair
mynhair's picture

How does this affect the Cowboy Poetry Festival?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:06 | 1057956 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

We could bring over all the homeless Japanese Cowboys and let them kabuki for food and shelter.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:09 | 1057971 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

does rule 34 apply to that?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:36 | 1057832 Racer
Racer's picture

Yes, just like employing an army of window breakers to create employment for glaziers..

hmmm I thought that was called breaking and entering with intent to rob...

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:44 | 1057865 Stranded Observer
Stranded Observer's picture

At first I was going to smash out my own windows to stimulate the economy.  Instead I had a better idea and smashed out my neighbors windows instead.  He didn't see things quite the way I did.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:37 | 1057834 rocker
rocker's picture

"Do not write-off QE-III just yet."   I just want to know the start date.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:40 | 1058095 pslater
pslater's picture

The start date will be the day they announce the end of QE2.  Of course, they won't call it QE3 because they won't have too...

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/12_Jim_Rickards.html

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:08 | 1058581 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

Thanks for the link! I never miss Mr. Rickards.

Perpetually insidious fed, I finally get it, I can see how deficits really dont matter.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:30 | 1058391 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Why wouldn't they just pull it for the summer and turn the sucker back on in late August? 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 00:49 | 1059348 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Second verse, same as the first.

From its inception, it was always QE. Its when it gets to EQE, Exponential Quantitative Easing, that's when we've reached Zimzombification.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:36 | 1057835 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Perpetual QE, bitchez!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:38 | 1057846 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Is this anti-OBummer?

"no good can come of a policy which can only serve to add to the confusion and bewilderment already occasioned by the violence of the tectonic shift in trying to suppress"

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:41 | 1057848 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

What are they talking about rebuild?

Rebuild what? Do these fucking idiots think they are rebuilding that area contaminated with nuclear fallout?

What is it with all these stupid people?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:41 | 1057855 mynhair
mynhair's picture

(reminder to self - check BoA exposure)

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:41 | 1057858 reader2010
reader2010's picture

The government says a little bit of nuclear radiation dosage is good for people's health because it can kill germs. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:01 | 1058528 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

You can't fix stupid.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 23:13 | 1058953 snowball777
snowball777's picture

But you can sterilize and/or kill it.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:39 | 1057849 TWORIVER
Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:48 | 1057883 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Amazon banned?

Heaven forbid anyone in the US Army actually read a book.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:27 | 1058679 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

Have you figgured out why the yen rallied yet?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:52 | 1057901 reader2010
reader2010's picture

But they left YouPorn open for themselves.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:42 | 1057852 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

while we're rounding up all the "idiots" on the "bleeding edge of financial lemmingdom" (lemmingdom - good word that) can we also get some extra rope for all the 'experts', academics and journalists that peddle the murderous idea that waging a(nother) war will be "good for the economy" and bang them up in a high security asylum for the mentally deranged right where they belong

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:47 | 1057875 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Must commit them.  All high trees have been cut down for fuel.

Thank you, environmental-nuts!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:49 | 1057885 BigJim
BigJim's picture

No, let's arm them with sticks and air-drop them over the countries they want us to invade.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:41 | 1057853 agrotera
agrotera's picture

Carol Baum at Bloomberg had the same to say--bravo for both of their honest and non-groupthink brains!!!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:40 | 1057859 1223pm
1223pm's picture

Japan's total national debt will rise up to 250% of the GDP. how will they handle this?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:22 | 1058657 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

Very carefully.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:44 | 1057870 BigJim
BigJim's picture

If you go to the trouble of cooking yourself a dinner, only for the dog to snatch it from the sill where you placed it to cool, do you congratulate yourself on your own good fortune as you troop back to the larder to begin again? If a sudden hailstorm strips bare the groaning ears of your wheat crop the day before you were due to harvest it, do you cheerily go about preparing the field for replanting, content in the knowledge that your doubled labour is being duly recorded in the plus column by a mindless government data-gatherer?

Beautiful.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:01 | 1057931 Greenhead
Greenhead's picture

I thought so too.  While the "broken window" analogy is powerful, these cut to the chase fast!! 

Thanks for the post.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:46 | 1057874 Count Laszlo
Count Laszlo's picture

Well, we all know by 10 PM PST this evening the Nikkei will be up over 7%.  This story is over - now it's up to the Japanese people to rebuild with our help.  It's now time to focus on ME. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:49 | 1057889 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Wrong sign.  PPT doesn't operate there when cost is high.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:48 | 1057887 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

This letter should be hand delivered to Harry.  Check out this post http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-fire-breaks-out-at-japan-nuclear-pl...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:03 | 1057942 jimijon
jimijon's picture

At least he is very consistent. Got to give him credit there.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:50 | 1057895 Cammy Le Flage
Cammy Le Flage's picture

I lived through a hurricane and without electricity for a long time. "Money" was worthless to me and many during that time. I remember the land line actually worked for some strange reason and people would call from other places to my home office assuming we were "back on track" because the phone seemingly worked. Until I explained to them that I was standing beside a tree inside my house and had a new "skylight".

Yet, THIS is NOT THAT at all. By no means. Japan has just defaulted by "default" meaning at this point - they don't have anything but a giant hole in the side of their country covered in god knows what and a severe radiation problem. This is simply crazy fucked up. I would "close the country" for awhile and assess. It can all wait. Fake markets can "wait" and if they don't wait then that is that. Be a little communist and socialist and humanist for bit. Looking for bodies with sticks? You do need dogs for that. Under that much debris. And the sea is going to spit some things back up which it already is doing. Some bodies will be found elsewhere. Currents flow. That was some super serious water movement. Some places have not even been reached yet at all. And now it is snowing and cold. And zero communications. More than one city wiped off the land entirely. It is hard to wrap one's head around it.

This is surreal. True Calamity.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:29 | 1058708 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I keep wanting to send the Generators and Ice (better yet ice machines) but its snowing so.. I want to be there helping.

 

I am in South FL so the hurricane thing hits home for me too.. and like you said they are well beyond us and our hurricanes.

 

Our millitary should be droping food or the engineers should be cutting new roads.. so these people can eat, fuck banning MTV for band width.. put those fuckers to work and get those poor, suffering people warm and fed. Now(ish) is a good time too!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 07:51 | 1059878 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

I hear you JW. I keep wanting to jump on a plane a shoveland athick jacket and get to work...that story about pulling the baby out really got to me.

I honestly don't know what the hell the military is doing tooling around with their fingers up their noses in Misawa, Yokota and off the coast for the last 4 days, but I can tell you that FINALLY some movement looks like it's going to happen.  AF and Navy are all abuzz on Guam getting ready to move out and we just had anamphibiousready group stand in the day after the tsunami that should be there any time (I sure as hell hope that's where they're headed).  Looks like the cavalry will get there just in time to zip up body bags but better late than never.  The air drops should have been happening days ago.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:50 | 1057896 jelyfish
jelyfish's picture

IE Less google searches... what exactly do people think the US economy is built on.  Lumber?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:54 | 1057908 cunningtrader
cunningtrader's picture

Well, all I see in Nikkei up 485, ASX up, S&P up......bad call Sean so far.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:55 | 1057914 cunningtrader
cunningtrader's picture

Morally,Sean is right, sans USFED/JAPAN CENTRAL correct, current reality = incorrect.

It's a harsh world atm for future trend callers alright.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:58 | 1057919 Muir
Muir's picture

To All The "Idiots" Who Believe The Japanese Calamity Will "Prove Positive For GDP"

 

I thought the child's broken window fallacy had been proven something like a fucking long time ago.

I mean this is pretty elementary.

Jeez I just googled it and got six hits.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 23:01 | 1058884 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

a real fuking long time ago, funbagz!  yet, the keynesians did play the tune, last weekend.  mr. corrigan apparently thinks he is saying something important here.  he is not.  tyler is trying to say something with this too.  but no one seems to understand, except a coupla people, here.  too bad, really.  who ya gonna call?

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:03 | 1057921 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

BTW did we know there are 10 reactors at fuckushima?

http://blogs.nature.com/news/thegreatbeyond/JAIF%2015%20March.jpg

How can we be sure the integrity of the other systems are still good?

Also, the spent fuel stored above and to the sides of the containment dome....can't those burn through the containment dome? If not can't they heat the containment dome which would damage the core? I am referring to reactor #4.

This is no good.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:59 | 1057925 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

The profit model is not just “Keynesian”.

The prevailing establishment economic theory discounts macro environmental pillage and human degradation as a cost when calculating (micro) profit. Thus, for example, the only "cost" of depleting the fisheries is the cost of directly harvesting the fish.

Furthermore, the power elite have reason to regard wars and catastrophes as opportunities for profiteering, price-gouging, takeovers, no-bid emergency projects, and avoiding oversight and regulations. The Shock Doctrine is nothing new.

In short, the fear and misery of the many have typically been good for the profits of a few.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:59 | 1057927 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Article is right, Pelousy told me so.  Spend more to make more.

Am I allowed to puke yet?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:00 | 1057933 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Well there is one place where a relentless military assault would boost GDP.  For example look at Mordor on the Potomac, if it were to vanish for some reason or another, I daresay that productivity and personal well being of not only the US but the world would skyrocket.

As to writing off QE3, no.  I'm quite certain that Zimbabwe Ben was out of his seat with glee and high-fiving at every new wrinkle of the disaster.  The race to debase marches on!  First one to a trillion currency units to oz of gold is the big winner!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:03 | 1057943 mynhair
mynhair's picture

QE3, phhhht!  I'm trying to price in QE18!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:34 | 1058726 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

The Ber-Nake and InfiniTimmy say Q!!!! E!!!! To Infinity and BEYOND!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WJf0UxTVng

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 07:36 | 1059856 tonyw
tonyw's picture

"First one to a trillion currency units to oz of gold is the big winner!"

Zimbabwe already won that one, i have a collection of every different trillion dollar note.

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:03 | 1057939 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Does the radioactive cat bounce?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:05 | 1057953 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Damn cat references.  What's wrong with dogs?  That's what DC is inhabited by.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:14 | 1057996 Cammy Le Flage
Cammy Le Flage's picture

DC is not inhabited by dogs. It is inhabited by Asps. Big difference.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:05 | 1057958 Misean
Misean's picture

No, apparently it sprouts wings and flies.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:09 | 1057968 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Feline racist.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:17 | 1058007 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

What's new pussy cat?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:02 | 1057940 Misean
Misean's picture

Always a good read.

That the BOJ is trying to keep the Yen from rising to forestall a diminishment in it's export engine, when the enterprises are calling global work stoppages to preserve parts and demand for building inputs is trivially simple to see, boggles the mind.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:05 | 1057948 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Ummm, to quote the above:

"Why wait for the vagaries of the climate, or the tortured creaking of continental plates to bring about such a 'stimulus' to growth? Why not declare war on ourselves and unleash our titanic arsenals of destruction on our own towns and cities, and rain down hellfire upon our own farms and gardens, razing the first to the ground and sowing the last with salt, until we make a self-inflicted Carthage of them, one in whose midst we can hope to become rapidly richer than our neighbours as, shivering and starving, we pick our way among the debris of our former civilisation to the nearest construction site?"

To ask the OBVIOUS:

What in the world do you think the present business cycle model is other than the above quote EXACTLY?

/shrug/

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:06 | 1057957 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

GDP is a number picked out of thin air by the Feds.  It can be anything they want it to be.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:08 | 1057962 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Well, when SF shook and burned early in the 1900's one person stepped out, set up a desk in the rubble and started banking.

That person became Bank of America eventually if memory serves.

 

The dumb part is that rebuilding SF on the fill of the debris and graves from the last quake will set it up again for another total destruction next time around. When are we gonna learn?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:19 | 1058334 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

A.P. Giannini, founder of the Bank of Italy, which later became Bank of America. When the earthquake hit, Amadeo took all the bank's money out of the vault, put it on a vegetable wagon, and went down the peninsula somewhere. A few days later, when the fires in SF had burned themselves out, he brought the cash back. According to local legend, he set a wooden plank between two wooden barrels, and made hundreds of small "handshake loans" to the survivors, most of whom had no cash. A.P. later said that every one of those loans was repaid.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:05 | 1058548 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

What a difference a century makes.  After Katrina over 25,000 false claims were filed for Federal compensation!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:08 | 1057964 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Its like a snow storm....sarc

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:09 | 1057966 Backspin
Backspin's picture

Long ago, Bastiat taught us what we need to know.  Many have either forgotten or refuse to listen.

Read Bastiat.  Read everything he wrote.  When you are finished, read it again.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:11 | 1057977 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I was appalled by what I overheard from a group of environmentalist talking amongst themselves.

 

'One less human equals one more day for the earth'

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:13 | 1057992 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Depends who they were talking about - ODummer?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:49 | 1058143 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Now that's pretty funny.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 23:23 | 1059021 snowball777
snowball777's picture

?!

While calculations about 'footprint' have determined that we need ~2.5 "earths" worth of resources for all these piggies to get theirs (even if they all recycle, compost, and turn off lights), that's mostly about the survival of the piggies, not the blue-green ball they're hypocritically squandering.

Did you ask them if they were volunteering and what you could do to 'help'?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XRt5cbNhUo

i've got nothing to say,
i've got nothing to do,
all of my neruons are
functioning smoothly
yet still i'm a cyborg just like you,
i am one big myoma that thinks,
my planet supports only me,
i've got this one big problem: will i live forever?
i've got just a short time you see,
modern man, evolutionary betrayer,
modern man, ecosystem destroyer,
modern man, destroy yourself in shame,
modern man, pathetic example of earth's organic heritage,
when i look back and think,
when i ponder and ask "why?",
i see my ancestors spend with careless abandon,
assume an eternal supply,

just a sample of carbon-based wastage,
just a fucking tragic epic of you and i

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 00:39 | 1059327 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Did you ask any of them when they were going to do something proactive and start a queue at the edge of a cliff? As long as it is some other oxygen waster. Rrriiiight!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:12 | 1057983 mynhair
mynhair's picture

GDP will increase.  Until some sukker subtracts off debt.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:13 | 1057989 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

Michael Holland on PBS's Night business Report 03-15-2011 said this will be net positive for Japan.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:21 | 1058026 Misean
Misean's picture

This is all such arrant nonsense that you should banish from your consideration, henceforth and forever, all of the jejune scribblings of the fool whom you once catch propounding it!

Michael Holland--check.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:53 | 1058179 Deathtöngue
Deathtöngue's picture

Anyone who uses the word "jejune" is a queer.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:40 | 1058751 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

jejune v. deathtongue?

rim job says who is gay?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:20 | 1058020 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

OH MY, The NIKKIE is FUCKING SOARING!

I'm going to get a bottle of booze and watch this fucking flea circus.

My fucking god, what a farce.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:31 | 1058069 Minge
Minge's picture

TOPIX up 6% in 20 minutes.  To quote Supertramp..."Crisis? What crisis?"

I imagine uranium will be up 10% tomorrow.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:39 | 1058088 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Serious as fuck, why not just halt trading and 'declare' where you want the equities to be?  What's the difference with this much direct manipulation and intervention?

This is fucking pathetic.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:53 | 1058175 Deathtöngue
Deathtöngue's picture

Aww, someone's getting burned on a short position and wants to blame it on Obama's secret conspiracy with the Lizard People of Bohemian Grove.

That's so cute!!!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:15 | 1058303 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Obama?!  LMFAO, that fucking puppet isn't running this show.  Neither did W, nor Willie.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:22 | 1058029 zaknick
zaknick's picture

The anti-"stratfor" (joooooo) kool-aid:

The satraps of the Anglo-American Empire, meaning the various viceroys, proconsuls, khedives and namestniks who have been set up to administer the various satellite countries, are now being massively purged to prevent them from defecting to rival power center like Russia, China, and Iran. This amounts to a preventive toppling of the US-UK satraps to head off a looming mass exit from the US-UK geopolitical plantation. Dictators and authoritarian rulers are being ousted by cliques of generals and mobs incited by the CIA to stop them from playing the Iran card, the Russian card, the China card, or some combination of these. Some of the more manic voices from the neocon faction even imagine that the US can ride the current wave all the way to the toppling of existing regimes and the creation of puppet governments in Beijing, Moscow, Teheran, and elsewhere, giving the US and the British uncontested dominion over the world for decades to come.

http://tarpley.net/2011/03/15/behind-the-2011-orgy-of-destabilizations/#...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:28 | 1058056 Peak Everything
Peak Everything's picture

I'm sure this is a stupid question but would appreciate an answer.

As I understand it, Japan runs a large deficit and Japan is one of the major lenders of capital to other countries.

How and/or why can a country that must borrow money to operate also lend money to others?

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:47 | 1058780 Old. No. 7
Old. No. 7's picture

Obviously, global economic imbalances which may at times manifest themselves through dislocations within the currency and/or trade markets and bring pressure upon global capital demands further straining the sovereign credit structure should be addressed within a  framework suitable for economic growth.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 01:22 | 1059437 Peak Everything
Peak Everything's picture

makes sense, thanks

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 01:27 | 1059449 defender
defender's picture

A description that I heard a while back is that the Japanese have a current account surplus with the US.  This means that every year they have billions more dollars than they can use.  Since they have to do something with the dollars, they exchange them for something that makes a profit/is very liquid.  That means treasuries. 

Unfortunately for those on Capitol Hill, this is about to change.  Japan is now going to need alot more oil for electricity, and oil is priced in dollars.  They will also need products from the US for rebuilding their shattered infrastructure.  Put those two together and you get a massive shift from treasury buyers to sellers.  Expect the price on treasuries to reflect this in the very near future.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:28 | 1058058 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

I was an Morgue attendant at one time so I have a pretty strong stomach but listening to Wall Street "analysts" tonight on TV almost made me puke when I heard them say,"this is postive for Japan."

How the H*LL can ANYONE get away with saying that. Worse yet, the Bimbo interviewer did not question this Wall Street Idiot?!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:30 | 1058062 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Nikkei on insane rebound rally?  How do you say Bernanke put in Japanese?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 23:26 | 1059032 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Benkakke-pu

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:32 | 1058073 vas deferens
vas deferens's picture

Tyler, I just wanted to make sure you knew that www.shadowstats.com (John Williams) came out with the hyperinflation report today 3/15.  I feel the report is a must read and something like 60pgs. 

Here is an excerpt:

Back to the Fed: QE2, QE3 and Other Non-Effective Policies.  The Federal Reserve fairly easily can have negative impact on the economy and inflation, but positive results are not so simple.  The Fed can kill economic activity by shrinking systemic liquidity, and it can increase inflation by “printing” money.  Efforts to stimulate economic growth or to reduce inflation, however, historically have been much more difficult to accomplish.  At present, though, Fed policies perversely are creating new inflation at the same time that a systemic liquidity squeeze is intensifying the economic downturn (see Section 6—Federal Reserve, the Money Supply and Fighting Deflation.  Continued efforts to debase the dollar should be successful, but not in stimulating economic activity, only in triggering an accelerating pace of inflation.

Significant efforts to cut back on, or to reverse, the so-called quantitative easing actions are not likely.  The liquidity that the Fed has put into the system has been deemed necessary by the Fed, likely more from the standpoint of helping banking-system liquidity than really expecting the measures will boost economic activity.  As discussed throughout this report, the economic and systemic-solvency crises appear to be worsening, not improving, suggesting more, not less, quantitative easing.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:45 | 1058127 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I like shadow stats and tried your link but don't have a password for that one. 

I did get a little nugget anyway -- "hyperinflation can still occur in contracting money supply if the economy is contracting more."  That was a keeper. Somebody better tell Ben if/when he ever still wants to use 15 minute notice to take the punch bowl away.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 22:46 | 1058782 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

+++++++++++++++++++ for anything Shadow Stats does!!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:38 | 1058090 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Sean Corrigan is James Joyce's grandson. Did you know that? Brilliant mind.  Always a pleasure to read, because he tells the truth so eloquently..

 

 

 

 

byutw jk (no idea whether he's james joyce's grandson - but he could be...)

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:47 | 1058140 gwar5
gwar5's picture

To say these disasters are positive for Japan is like saying the holocaust was good for the Jews because it brought them all together.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:12 | 1058282 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

+6,000,000

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:54 | 1058510 destraht
destraht's picture

+5,999,999

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:52 | 1058176 djsmps
djsmps's picture

Thank god, in times of crisis, for Jim Cramer. I can sleep better tonight.

Cramer: Japan Is Not a 'Chernobyl Situation'

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42090187

He also posted this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGo1-EVrsx8

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:10 | 1058277 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

when it blows , he will just say he never said that

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 00:50 | 1059360 poor fella
poor fella's picture

The best part (and when I had to turn the channel) was when Cramer said that during the financial crisis, Japan's market was down 30%, last years 'slump' saw a 12% decline, and now we're only seeing an 8% decline.

"The market is telling us that things maybe aren't as bad as we think."

WTF? The market has magic fairy dust that alters reality now?

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:56 | 1058188 JR
JR's picture

While the world turns in political turmoil, Nouriel Roubini is proposing a Marshall Plan type program for the Arab world, with heavy involvement from the IMF and the World Bank  - with possible carbon tax funding - and other funding contributions primarily from Western countries.

Is this really Roubini, the Dr. No who became famous for predicting government failures and often basks in the accolades of bears and short sellers?  Yes, but this is the Roubini with the Davos connections – whose company partnered with Larry Summers and who worked in Bob Rubin’s Treasury department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner.  Once the Obama Administration came to power, alas, Dr. No became Dr. Yes.  And now his newest shocking thrust has the look of banker world management.

Could it be that the bankers are afraid that the Arab peoples are going to be free and that they’ll have the oil to themselves and they’ll be able to sell the oil rather that have the bankers simply go get it?

Says Roubini: “So a bold new assistance program should be designed for the region, modeled on the Marshall Plan in Western Europe after WWII, or on the support offered to Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Berlin Wall. Financing should come from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, as well as from bilateral support provided by the US, the European Union, China, and the Gulf states. The goal should be to stabilize these countries’ economies as they undertake their delicate political transitions.

“The stakes are high. Unstable political transitions could lead to high levels of social disorder, organized violence, and/or civil war, fueling further economic and political turmoil. Given the current risk-sensitivity of oil prices, the pain would not be confined to the Middle East.”

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/03/2011315102938604448.html

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:06 | 1058249 Cammy Le Flage
Cammy Le Flage's picture

Mister Man should stick to the partying with the young chicks. Linsday Lohan is available. Saying 'what is' is easy. Saying 'what to do' not so much.

Ain't nothing stable anywhere. Hang on to your seats ladies and gentlemen. There are no safety straps on this ride.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:15 | 1058302 Misean
Misean's picture

Roubini has been and always shall be a F-twat of a keynsian not job. Never though any of his analysis logically added up to his conclusions. He just happened to be right, like a blind squirrel.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:54 | 1058191 chump666
chump666's picture

Put it this way, Asia is due for a liquidity crisis, Sth Korea, China, Tiawan...Japan fiscally implodes, which is happening now - should KO Asia for a few years.  Who cares if they print, they'll get inflation and oil will kill off any stimulus fantasies on recovery boom.

Total FUBAR.

Deadcat bounce on...on liquidity injections. This will be short-lived.

Any nuclear fallout...gonna kill Japan's manufacturing base

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:13 | 1058286 Sgt.Sausage
Sgt.Sausage's picture

Broken window fallacy is ...

Broken

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:46 | 1058467 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Yep, people who see this disaster as a positive clearly believe in the broken window fallacy.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:20 | 1058341 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Riddle me this:   cause I must need to go to school....  Japan pumps trillions into the system YEN goes up...US pumps trillions into the system DOLLAR goes down....Hows that work there BUCKWHEAT??

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:28 | 1058384 PeterSchump
PeterSchump's picture

Risk off and the unwinding of the carry trade.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:27 | 1058379 PeterSchump
PeterSchump's picture

What? The wholesale destruction of production capacity does not contribute to GDP?  Didn't WWII end the Great Depression?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:30 | 1058394 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

It did for the US since their wasn't any destruction on US soil.

Not so much for Europe and Japan...not so much.

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