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Seasonally Adjusted Claims Data Improves, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Deteriorates, Snow Again Involved
Today's BLS release on initial claims showed a moderate improvement in SA initial claims, which declined by29,000 from 498,000 to 469,000, which lead to a just noticeable improvement in the 4-week average, and a 134,000 decline in the SA unemployment to 4.5 million. Yet this week once again saw a divergence between the SA and NSA numbers, where NSA initial claims increased by 17,128, and SA unemployed went up by 24,534 to 5.6 million. The spread in the SA and NSA unemployment rates, after tightening for 4 weeks, has once again started to diverge, and was at 80 bps, after hitting a 2010 tight of 70 bps in the week ended February 13.
As for the extremely volatile (and delayed) Emergency Unemployment Compensation series, that increased by 207,632 in the week ended February 13. Oddly enough, snow storms were once again implicated, this time for claims "renormalization", even though the data, which was from the last week of February, was accompanied by some of the largest snowstorms at precisely that time.
Some commentary from Goldman on claims:
1. As expected, initial claims fell by 29k in the week of Feb 27 to reach 469k. The pattern of recent weeks -- down in early Feb as storms first hit, then up as some workers were unexpectedly idled -- is consistent with weather effects. The latest decline suggests that these effects have abated. That said, the four-week average - which should cut through most of these disturbances -- remains at the elevated level of 471k.
2. Continuing claims fell by 134k in the week of 20 Feb to 4.5million, 100k lower than expected. Extended claims continue their recent up and down pattern, rising by 198k in the week of Feb 13, after a 335k drop in the week before. The total number of claims - the sum of continuing and extended - remains on a slight upward track through mid Feb, rising to 10.5 million.
3. The Q4 productivity and cost revisions contained no major surprises. The increase in productivity was a bit larger than our above-median forecast as the Labor Department shaved its initial estimate of hours worked a bit. Unit labor costs now show a much steeper decline - down 4.7% over the past four quarters versus 2.8% previously - as more comprehensive data on labor compensation have proven to be much weaker than indicated by preliminary reports.
The fact that the country is still losing employees, almost half a year "after the recession ended", seems to be getting zero air time.
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maybe someday someone will figure out that over time (like, the last 2 years) all of those unemployed are spending less cuz they are using up or have used up their resources. i still would like to figure out the discrepancy between plunging sales tax revenues and increasing retail sales......
+1. Good chance that there is widespread misrepresentation of retail sales results. But what the hell, in 5 years when the truth is exposed, retailers will just hop on government misrepresentation wagon, singing "we're all in this together"....you know, the "if they can do it, we can do it" rationalization.
When the report is bad, blame the snow. When the report is good, blame Obama. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9qhzoFBX6k
Who do you think put the "O" in snow?
same guy who put the funk in dysfunktion
Isn't the increases in retail sales only same-store numbers? If the retail sales numbers aren't aggregate numbers of all sales from the same number of stores, then the numbers aren't a good measure of health since you're not comparing apples to apples each report. In other words, if you had 3 stores last year, and now you're down to one, your same store sales for that 1 store may be higher because you can't go to stores 2 and 3 anymore and is capturing lost sales from those other 2 stores, most likely through discounting.
When the vast majority are desperate for "good news", good news is all they will hear. I talked about this effect in my last article, where the ego (which is where the desperation originates) wants to shield the consciousness from "bad" news. It's not a moral thing, simply self survival from the ego's point of view.
The ego's self appointed job is to protect the consciousness from emotional shock and trauma. So it lies to us, either directly by manipulation of our perception, or indirectly by filtering reality. Once the manipulation begins, the ego is then reacting to the effects of it's own past and present manipulation as well as present "reality". We are either slaves to our egos or we push through the Cognitive Dissonance caused by our sheltered/filtered reality and place the ego in the back of the bus. But then we must face reality.
For the vast unwashed masses, who are fully immersed in an alternative reality, the softer easier way forward is to remain in the Matrix, the altered reality our egos present to us. The sad fact is that our so-called leaders and the powers-that-be behind them are fully aware of the role the ego plays in the day to day lives of the average Joe and they play us (more accurately our ego) like Charlie Danials plays the fiddle. Expertly.
Nice reply!
Well they're gonna have to play a helluva tune come November...
True enough.
But it is also the case that the people who report the news hated Bush and love Obama.
Without spending a microsecond on right and wrong (or right and left), there is enormous bias in the media and you have adjust for it.
If you think you're actually getting "news" these days, as opposed to a carefully constructed narrow view of the world as it is presented and choreographed, I suggest you turn off the TV, radio and Internet for a little while and de-program. The false dynamic of left-right, Democrat-Republican and so on is there to simply keep you distracted and spinning in circles.
Video of ex Saturday Night Live crew, and Jim Carrey as 7 former presidents advising Obama on the consumer protection agency
http://is.gd/9G64Z
Goldman Sucks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdjVISS6NP0
I find it funny how Canadians still find jobs and buy houses, despite snow. Maybe Larry Summers could go up north and get some advice on how it's possible.
+100
Or, is it a reflection of the powers that be general disdain at the stupidity of the American people, not just the sheeple, but "apparently" educated ones that are supposed to analyse this data and draw conclusions from it?
I think it may be, fkn hilarious either way.....
This @#%&ing snow is destroying our economy, our way of life, and the very fabric of America.
CURSE YOU SNOW!
Ya it was so bad SNOW tire sales were down!!
Dey TooooK our TracTION!!!
The problem is global cooling and we need a tax to protect us from it.
Then of course you have this:
Trichet: Adverse weather could impact 1st quarter
It snows in Europe too!
So, do we want Global Warming or not? What the hell, man...they can't have it both ways! ;)
Silly suteibu--
The Global Warming CAUSES the extra snow. The warmer summers caused by CO2 emissions leads to colder winters! Increasing weather volatility. Al Gore told me so.
I guess it's nothing a good, old-fashioned ice age won't fix. Or will that mean the Earth is getting closer to the sun? Obviously, my 4th grade science teacher was a complete idiot.
Actually more 'particulate matter' in the air - ie. any kind of pollution from any form of emissions forms larger and more mass of condensate (around the particles blowing around way up in the sky) hence greater snowfall - just sayin... in case your curious.
Why are record snowfalls happening over large cities like London and New York recently?? ...of course we all know how much BS is in the air lately..
For which he won a Nobel Prize for acting in a movie about climatology. Still waiting for Mark Hammel, Harrison Ford, Sir Alec Guiness, and Carrie Fisher to get their's in astronomy.
If you can potentially lose your job because of bad weather, how good of a job is it?
I can tell you what it wasn't. Anyone who would have been laid off and called to work for emergency snow removal.
Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -Ayn Rand
Bravo!
We've _always_ been at war with EastAsia.
I hear Ben is gonna drop snow from his helicopter come spring.
Government numbers - irrelevant. Please place in shredder.
Ha ha ha! I completely agree! They are all cooked.
House and Senate Finance Committees need to hold a hearing and grill Mr. SNOW to find out WTF is up with attempts to destroy our economy, delaying our Recovery. Ben and Timmy don't want no competition.
Those damn hedge funds and their cloud seeding!
Following up on this exchange...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morning-musings-art-cashin-dissecting-iran-quandary#comment-252318
with this post
http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2010/03/silly-rabbit-risk-is-for-bids-or-take.html
Thursday March 4, 2010 – Issue 3709The King Report
The ISM Non-Manufacturing was better than expected. The Employment component jumped 4 points.
But the seasonal adjustment is .946. This means the non adjusted data is divided by .946, which boosts the number. The adjustment for the index is .94. In the coming months seasonal adjustments will work against the ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes.
Next month it will be 1.033 and in April 1.069. May is 1.055 and June is 1.085.
(For the rest of the year we have: .967 in July, .984 in August, 1.004 in September, 1.002 in October, .982 in November and .961 in December. That of course is unless they change their methodology! -AM)
Government intervention has corrupted the seasonal adjusting process. When the government stimulates the economy in a period of historically lower activity, seasonal adjusting boosts the data further. But there is another reason that the ISM, PMI and the BLS keep overstating employment and economic activity. In the surveying process there is no allowance or adjusting for firms that go out of business.
For example: Take three firms of approximately the same size that are surveyed firms. One goes bust. Some of its orders and employees flow to the other entities. When the remaining firms are surveyed they will report a boost in activity and employment – even though aggregate employment has declined. If the scuttled firm had 100 employees and just 20 employees find jobs at the two other firms, real employment would have declined by 80 but in the surveying, two firms would report employment gains and the firm that disappeared won’t be counted. They same is true for production and orders.
(They cut you in half while you're smilin' ear to ear. It's magic! Follow the white rabbit. -AM)
Amazing how weather is never raised as an issue on those bright sunny days. More and more positive data is supported only by plugs and adjustments. Bloody horrible.
wasn't last weeks number 494k....is the 498k a revision?
Obligatory: "it's a snow job, folks".
here in seattle, where it rains all the time, the numbers are generally flat. The only green growth is on the north side of the trees.
California's ailing job market is much more feeble than analysts thought was the case a few weeks ago, according to a new report that provides an early glimpse into statewide employment trends.
It appears California lost 871,000 jobs in 2009, suggests an estimate provided by the state Employment Development Department. That would translate into an 292,000 more jobs that were lost, on top of the prior losses. IF it is a consolation (doubtful) one could say that now it does not appear to be getting worse.
http://www.contracostatimes.com/top-stories/ci_14493140?nclick_check=1
Sure, but I bet EVEN MORE were created or saved by gov't stimulus.
It's not just the Fed which is printing b/s these days.
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