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Seasonally Adjusted Initial Claims Jump To 409K Vs Exp. Of 408K, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Claims Surge By 52K To 577K
The seasonal adjustment in the last week's sub 400k initial claims is starting to water out, and the resulting jump in initial claims from 388K to 409K was to be expected. Of course, last week's 388K was revised as always to a worse reading of 391K. More importantly, as we have been noticing for the past 3-4 weeks, the Unadjusted claims continue to surge, and in the last week jumped by 52k to 577,279, nearly 170k more than the Seasonally Adjusted number. Those on continuing claims declined from 4,150,000 to 4,103,000 even as the NSA number again surged from 4,116,779 to 4,390,661. Lastly, those on extended claims were a wash as those on EUCs dropped by 134K while those on extended claims jumped by 110K.
From the report:
Which brings us to the final 2010 BLS data fudging chart. We urge readers to calculate the probability that initial claims are revised in an adverse fashion the week following on 44 of 52 occasions, and favorably on a whopping 2 out 52 purely by chance.
h/t John Lohman
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this will help calculating the probabilities:
http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx
cnbc is breaking out the cheerleading squad saying 450K tomorrow!
let's scare those peasants into the stock markets! some one has to take all this inflated stock off brian sack's hands!!!!
You could be more right than you know.
The Fed will need someone to buy the crap on its books down the road. Look for the cheerleading to reach a fever pitch before QE ends (assuming it ever ends).
Rosie on Bloomberg Radio just now - Fridays jobs number likely +150,000 and could be 200,000+
so, do the additional 170k+ on the non seasonally adjusted initial claims still get benefits? or, are they told, their jobs were seasonally adjusted to vanish...and so are they.
They are vaporized...
BUT it get's better, as the "unexpectedly" poor December retail sales was blamed on ONE SNOW STORM! LMAO! RALLY TIME!
Unsurprising headline on Marketwatch
Does anything actually affect the capital markets negatively these days?
I see this comment and I ponder the ignorance.
What news outside of the Federal Reserve's decision to raise asset prices do you believe should influence the equity markets?
Where have you been since the inception of quantitative easing, under a rock?
Let us print this one more time for the slow of mind:
DO NOT FIGHT THE FED.
The market will correct when Ben says for it to correct and not one minute sooner. Via flash crash or stately decline, the drop will only come when Ben says "come."
Now back to the obvious for those who aren't having, as Obama would say, a special olympics moment.
BTFD!
Yeah, stay militantly ignorant of history. Increasing deficits financed through blatant debt monetization has always resulted in collapse.
But no doubt THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT.
Moron.
Date and time of the collapse, sheeple; date and time.
It will happen when the fed stops the prop, genius and you should know this.
Again, for the ZH sheeple:
DO NOT FIGHT THE FED.
I know, I know it's like saying 2+2=4 to an adult. But it appears some adults don't really understand the basics of life so I keep repeating it.
Again,
BTFD!
Meh, I've decided against arguing with retards. It's not a fair fight.
Btw - if I were you, I'd ask for my tuition fees back. You have a genuine case.
Brilliant logic. If the Fed fails, it is because it wanted to fail? Everything that happens is according to all-powerful Ben's plan? You are one pathetic little sheeple.
So interesting to see you refer to someone as a "sheeple". You are as indoctrinated into the perma-bear camp as any perma-bull and as such you truly are a sheep.
You will follow the TD and ZH fantasy of the end of the world until someone builds a new supermarket on top of your backyard bunker.
There's a new sheeple in town; the ZH sheeple. Incapable of independent thought and unable to recognize reality.
But Tyler loves you as you feast on his salt lick of bearish propaganda. You do realize the ZH sheeple have been wrong in your economic forecasts, don't you?
Please fill me in on the collapse of Greece for a start. How are the riots going? How about that run on the Irish banks? Are those things empty yet? And what about the collapse of France and Britian as the citizens raise their pitchforks in protests over retirement age and university cost issues. Surely the people have destroyed the places by now. Why France was soon to be out of petro, no? Haven't the college students in GB brought the nation to its knees yet?
The analysis and resultant predictions posted on this site are in the 2-3% accuracy range. You worship at the alter of those who are simply wrong about pretty much everything they forecast. Keep an open mind and you will see what happens with the fed and the market. You will see.
And by the way, there is one dip you should not buy. You know the one, the dip in price for the shiney stuff you guys worship as if it can be eaten and used as a cure for cancer. Best stay away from that for another five hundred or so.
Let me sum things up for you so we don't waste any time.
You are wrong. The market ALWAYS wins at the end, not the FED manipulations.
And you know who's going to get hurt the most when reality finally sets in? Sheeple (there, I said it) like you who have this blind belief that the FED is all powerful and in control of events.
I hope this helps.
You remind me of the German people back on the home front in 1944 trusting in what they heard from the Fuhrer (Bernanke in your case) while the Russian army was at the gates of Warsaw. You should read Charles Hugh Smith's (http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html) entry on January 5th on situational awareness. It applies to you, NoMas.
No.
Retailers bent over backwards to entice holiday shopping in 2010. They remained open more days and longer hours, and they offered deep discounts on merchandise. Weak retail sales could be very telling... despite the fact that many Americans are irrational spending junkies.
I will readily admit that while I participated in the upward market frenzy in 2009, I didn't participate much in 2010. However, I damn sure won't be a bagholder for the banksters and shysters in 2011 when this rally peters out. They will be cheerleading like mad to get retail suckers into the party before the floor falls out from under the room.
Right. And recall that Bernakster told 60 Minutes he was 100% confident he could stop inflation if it occurs. Well, we seem to be reaching that point. So Goldman Sux is on Ben's speed dial and will be told far in advance of exactly WHEN Ben will turn off the QE spigot. Will ZH get tipped off ahead of time, before the crash? Only Ishmael will escape this whale hunt.
The Ben Bernank raised the bar on hubris with that comment. The Fed will hide behind CPI data and ignore rising food and energy costs and continue its ZIRP as long as it damn well pleases. The Fed caters to the elite.
More proof that yesterday's ADP was a statistical error, caused by a human intentionally- evev the creators of ADP unemployment stat said so!
(d)
CNBC say's Job Picture Modestly Better. Yesterday, Macy closing store near me. 170 to lose jobs, Sounds good to me, everbody back to the party.
Yes and BJ's wholesalers closing 5 stores in NJ, over 400 employees. Charlie Brown restaurant chain, filed for BK closing all locations except one, over 70 employees. That's just this week alone...
fairchild is dumping 120 people in south portland Maine.
''
Seasonal adjustment formula:
X*0.8
I think i deserve a nobel prize.
GM, and lets not forget those jobe that are created. What kind are they. Well paying, no, benefits, no, many in the service sector. Employers get what they want from new hires. 8 to 11.00 an hour to start. Few on yearly salary. Yup, those jobs really going to move us forward.
Those jobs are still better for our country than letting someone collect a dime of unemployment if any job is available.
Those jobs are still better for our country than letting someone collect a dime of unemployment if any job is available.
Is there a single thinking person among us who isn't aware of the fact that these reports are MEANINGLESS BULLSHIT WHOSE ONLY PURPOSE IS TO GENERATE TRADES?
It seems you're the only one.
Congratulations.
huh? :-)
now some analyst on drugs predicting 450,000 job improvement tomorrow. Do I hear 500,000, beyond words.
It's getting hard keeping up to date with all this strongly bullish news.
LOL! LOLOLOL!
++++++=
Remember, good old Harry Wagner showed very strong sales as well!
I can't remember who said it, but a comment left yesterday exposed Harry's consumer business as selling urinal screens and deodorizers. Hilarious.
wasn't one of his comments on selling low to high end products?
This is what I call a high end product, not an old nasty urinal as above:
http://www.i-love-water.com/#/xu/en/Products/aquaclean-8000plus
Harry finally did post a link to his online catalog on another thread this morning. It certainly is an end product:
http://www.enemasupply.com/enemabags.html
And this is year over year against the 2009's numbers. Sad really.
...and with less competition around.
The upward revision pattern is concerning. The seasonally adjusted data versus actual data is beginning to sound like a rant that's not particularly well thought out. Over the last 10 years, there is a large adjustment in late December/early January. It is a pretty standard pattern in the data. I don't remember ZH screaming quite as much when in August the difference was consistently about 100k the other direction. I also ran a running 52 week total. As of Dec 11 (that's as recent as the DOL site has) the 52 week total was OVERSTATING claims by 225k. I'm all for conspiracy and am in full belief that the economy will struggle this year, but the claims data does seem decent.
As a % of covered employment, the claims continue to be above average, and I'm not sure why people don't focus on claims as a % of covered employment and just look at the raw data? To me, it makes sense that if fewer people are covered, 400k of claims is worse than it was a few years back when many more people were working. That also ignores the structural shift in the work force, where more people are part-time and its my belief that these people are less likely to be laid off anyways at this stage - why not keep a part timer just in case it ever does get better.
Fair enough but...
Why this seasonal adjustment crap anyway??? Why not just compare YoY data?
And let me answer... because they need a figure what can be freely manipulated to direction or other. I mean there are 20% swings to direction or other.
and meanwhile, in spite of all this great jobs news, states keeping threatening to go under due to a 20-40% drop in sales taxes and tax revenue....
wonder what that is about! I mean, don't these vapor people pay taxes?
It don't make no sense! It ain't natural!
Let me just relate my anecdote from right here between government and industry.
I try to buy American in a probably misguided effort to do something about the economy. The problem is, I find more and more I have to go online to do this. American manufacturing really is pretty crippled, but it's not as bad as browsing Walmart shelves would lead you to believe.
As many are aware, internet sales are a sore spot for states because sales tax collection is inconsistent at best. I don't go online to avoid some piddly sales tax, but because retailers refuse to offer the products I want to buy locally. The net result is that even though I still spend money and indirectly help create/maintain jobs, it might not show up as much in sales tax reciepts.
Now, I can't say how widespread this really is. My peers didn't really care about "free" trade because it wasn't their jobs being shipped overseas. Even in forums dominated by older midwestern types (folks that profess to love America and probably did work in a factory at some point), they've bought the corporate lie hook line and sinker. American products are junk, everything's the union's fault, Walmart's low prices will save us, and so on.
Futures are up, baby!
Even the wall street journal has commented on how unemployment benefits raise the unemployment rate. We need to end unemoloyment insurance after one year. That gives people plenty of time to adjust to the shitty job they are going to have to take. Some people are just too good for honest labor or selling street food.
Who is "we"?
Isn't it easy to put your jackboot on the neck of the poor and disadvantaged? All those douchebags out there milking the pittance of help that UE pays. Ah, the Morty Dukes of the world...
I gotta go with the Troll on this one. I'm not trying to sound like Mako here, but some adjustments are gonna have to be made.
Its all good. Rally on. Besides, Apple comes out with the Mac app store today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-06/fewer-americans-filed-jobless-i...
The drop in EUC claims is likely influenced significantly to 99ers running just out of benefits (vs those finding employment). These are the guys who lost jobs during the darkest days of 2008 when the economy shed 800K+ jobs per month. This will continue over the next few months.
If today is 1/6/2011, then 99 weeks ago was 2/12/2009.
Opps, right -- 2009. Thanks for the correction.
I guess they forgot to sweep some 99'ers under the rug.