This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Seasonally Adjusted Jobless Claims Beat Expectations, As NSA Number Deteriorates Notably
In what is now 38 times in 2010 (out of 46), the BLS has revised its prior weekly initial jobless claims number higher, from 439k to 441k. The most recent number, which is far less relevant (as it will be revised worse next week) and much more volatile due to it being a pre-thanksgiving week, and layoffs plunge, came at 407k compared to 435k the expectations. Most importantly, non-seasonally adjusted claims increased by 52.5k. But of course, the government's adjustment is where it's at. Continuing claims were of course also revised higher as the BLS' charade of beating instant expectations has gotten boring: the prior number of 4,295k was pushed higher to 4,324k, once again confirming that anything the BLS reports has to be ignored until the next week revision. Lastly, the loss of extended claims started early this year, with those collecting extended claims and EUCs dropping by over 280k.
»
- 4792 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
With no POMO, you didn't expect the number to do anything but beat did you?
http://manifestdeconstruction.blogspot.com/2010/11/unemployment-rate-indicator-of-economic.html
The sell was that "economic activity" was picking up. I broke down what the labor market from a dollar value standpoint has been doing over the last year.
Who gets laid off for Thanksgiving?
Turkey slaughterhouse seasonal workers?
The turkey processors?
Fruitcake packers
No, no, that's Christmas. And once the fruitcakes are unpacked, they return to Congress.
The Federal Reserve's PR team?
Nop, they all just got promoted to work for the Governement Propaganda Team.
Two years ago, we laid off lots of our American personnel in December.
-Anheuser-Busch InBev
I'll grant you they keep revising upward, but isn't the skew fairly consistent (+2k, +2k, +2k...)?
If the skew is so consistent, why do they keep doing it? Why not throw the extra 2k in the original number and call it a day?
Because the fake numbers must be believed by a majority of the sheeple, that's why! Of course they are tweaking garbage numbers. I expect that we will soon see impossibly precise numbers. Managing expectations and trying to look competent and all that.
Not even believed as much as fulfilling the role of providing plausible deniability.
Lately. But people seem to have forgotten the really HUGE adjustment that they did earlier this year. IIRC, it was something like 900,000 for all of 2008. If they can pull that trick once, they can pull it again.
I haven't seen any mention of this for next year though. Has anyone?
If no one such as ZH and others were watching, the skew would be 10,000 not 2,000.
Sure, almost looks like a bored, lazy civil servant to apathetic to even bother hiding 2k - 2k - 2k - 2k
Then again, if the 99'er hit the wall this week, the UI won't catch them because their entitlements (whatever the fuck that means) ran out.
Isn't the bigger story in this jobless, jobfull, partially jobbed and unjobbed mess the fact that December 1st is the dead-line for the end of the claims extension?
If they don't extend again, will that trigger the McMasses?
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Hey ORI.....Is there a story behind your "Oh regional Indian" handle/callsign that you can share?
Sure RR, I spent 11 and some years in the US, a place I'd known growing up as the land of the Red Indian. And strangely enough, there were pockets of the US, sadly, where I still had to explain to folks that I was an Original Indian. It became a sort of joke.
Now I'm back here, so Original, Oh Regional.... like that. Plus, I thought I had to be clever to pass the Tyler/Marla entrance test to gain membership to this hallowed site! ;-)
Thanks for asking.
ORI
TY...Figured there HAD to be a neat story there. Appreciate the reply.
BLS trying to align the stars for what is indisputably the business of America in the 21st Century: Shopping!!
They didn't want no depressing news after all they went through stuffing many many FRNs into the pockets banker trophy wives, financier consorts and top corporate brass concubines.
It sure is going to be busy over at Tiffany's and Bergdorf's, Hermes and Cartier. And Mecum's classic auto auctions too!
Ding! Gotta ramp-up the Sheeple for Black Friday, dont-cha-know.
I think the early release has something to do with it also....they are missing a day..so they estimate ....and give a bene to the oval office
Just ignore the huge miss in durables. We'll be back next week for our year end layoffs to pull up q4.
It's a joy to see what the gov. mailing did to those numbers.
A simple text did all this!
YOU'VE JUST BEEN ERASED FROM THE STATS BECAUSE:
A. You're to old.
B. Sick.
C. Unemployed for to long.
D. Because we needed to make some cuts to make a nice graph.
F. Because we felt like it.
Anyone getting groped, I mean flying, today?
Will be interesting to see if the cattle make a stand or not.
With all these witnesses, you'd think someone would call the cops.
Shirley.......you don't expect the cops to do anything, do you. :>)
Besides, they're usually the ones doing the "official" beating.
Yesterday, I visited a nursing and was leaving with my elderly mother. We grabbed so fast food, a rarity, and I'm munching on a french fry, going fairly slowly for me, when this young cop pulls me over.
Now, I usually drive pretty fast, this time I wasn't. He lied and said I was doing 67, but said he was doing me a favor and giving me a not wearing seat belt ticket. I WAS wearing my seat belt, and I was not speeding! What a scam. Then he acted like he did me a favor and said I wouldn't get any points. Wow. I'm thinking of starting a website where people can log in and let me know where heavy ticketing is occurring to raise revenues to bail out broke little town gubmints. Harrumph!
The term "To protect and serve" has slowly been removed from many town, county and city police cruisers as the public begins to fully understand that the primary purpose of the police is now revenue generation and after-the-fact questioning and paperwork.
Oh, and to remove the dead bodies and document the death or injury for life and health insurance purposes.
Do cops go to special seminars where they are taught to tell the "suspect" that they are trying to help? Toward the end of the "Don't touch my junk" video, the TSA guy kept saying, "I'm trying to help." I guess this is some kind of "help talk" to psychologically disarm you.
You should go to traffic court and contest it. Let us know how it goes. ;)
I am going to go. Little punk. He was 25, I felt like taking him by the ear and smacking him upside his head. I've got a 25 yo serving in the Navy, and I know by the way I raised him, he would not abuse his power like that. Or else, I would smack him upside the head!
:)
I was being sarcastic. Save shaving a few months off your life and pay the piddly ass ticket and go on. If you have a judge that listens to you in traffic court, then somehow the stars have aligned, you're involved in a miracle, and you need to leave immediately and go buy a lottery ticket in the hopes your luck doesn't end.
Need to install a video camera in your car these days to protect yourself from abuse, and also ask to see the radar that clocked your speed this can be brought up in your defense if he wasn't able to show you. It used to be that these cops would pull you over for something bogus and then give you a citation for seat belt violation because they weren't suppose to pull you over specifically for seat belt violation.
I agree, and realized that I was stupid for not using my phone (Droid/Eris) to videotape the dude.
Policement are "trained" to tell the speed of a car within a few mph. As a result, their mere testimony as to their guess of your speed is more than enough to convict you and is generally accepted in traffic court as the gospel. My suggestion is to NEVER let a ticket get put on your record and generally, cops will just give you a warning. If you were going to get out of a ticket, filming it will ensure you get the ticket. Also, having a concealed handgun permit generally helps, because the cop knows you've had to pass a background check.
A few months to fight a speeding ticket? Just asking questions (if you have a cam in your car) will supply you with the opportunity to catch him in a contradiction and I'm sure you know how judges view those. If you had a cam then you could point it at yourself before you even pull over to show you were wearing a seat belt. I wouldn't tell the cop anything, just show up in court with the seat belt citation and the cam recording that way you are only fighting the seatbelt ticket. My record is spotless and you are right I usually only get a warning.
So the drop is a holiday shortened week guess.
They didnt mention that in the stories. Luxury retailers rally on the news.
ORI, I think you meant disjobbed or dejobbed, maybe even disjobbified?
There's also disrobeified...disrobofied would be different, and a loss to the zerohedge community.
No, Robo wouldn't be much of a loss anymore...the quality of comments and pictures fell off a cliff.
disenjobbified?
Hey CheapKF, are you sure you aren't a shill for the Glowerment De-apart-meant-something-said-something-else? Aka... Ministry of Truth in Language?
I like disenjobbified!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Nice.
Are you sure it isn't spelled dysenjobified?
ZH's spell check just threw up it's hands on this one and asked to ignore the word. :>)
Obama, the great mind who came up with jobs created or saved has a new alternative plan for maintaining employment.
Keep your job but you just don't get paid. A saved job!
I think I've figured out the BLS's numbers lately. A number of the unjobbed went through a TSA checkpoint, so the BLS transferred them out of that category.
You should not think of these as layoffs, just retroactive hiring freezes.
I am as suspicious of goverment numbers as anyone, but if you are going to discuss NSA numbers then you have to also talk about the NSA numbers from the comparable week from last year.
This week's NSA initial claims were MUCH better than the NSA numbers from the same week last year.
In addition, last year saw a similar pattern, with the NSA claims number but the SA number declining.
Sorry, but your off base with this one
Not entirely, but you do have a point.
BLS workers get up in the morning and go to work and they are just like anyone else. They aren't paid enough to lie every day to the public. They are normal people like anyone else. These numbers are their attempt at being accurate.
I will say that this is the New Normal and seasonal adjustments of the past may no longer be correct. That was behind their big adjustment some months ago. All of their processes and procedures were not designed for a debacle of this magnitude.
And let's keep in mind one other item. Firings HAVE to slow down. It's just logic. You run out of people to fire. Even if your business is stagnant and not growing, you run out of people to fire because some get older and die or they just move on of their own choice. Then you don't replace them. Attrition is always there, boom or debacle.
So overall let's not presume this is good news because 9.6% is 9.6%. But it's not lying either.
At this point in a recovery, we should be generating 200 - 300K jobs per month, and new claims should be ~ 300K... we are certainly off the peak of losses, but what we are seeing now is unprecedented (unless you admit that we are in a depression).
Obummer Administration Loves the "Lie By Revision"
In the case of weekly "Lie By Revision"
=> Use the 4 week moving average to catch the Lie...
Wait till next week when it's really a short week number due to thanksgiving. You want to see a pump rally, that'll be it.
What does it matter except in the context of keeping markets inflated?
Just more fudging by the BLS.
I'm too tired to come up with a comedic breakdown of the acronym.