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Second Mini Flash Crash In Apple In Same Day
The flash crashes will continue until market confidence returns (this is the second one in Apple today). Who is even trading this insanity anymore? This entire market is about to break hard: any piece of bad news can topple Apple like a house of cards, and that, as we noted earlier, will take the entire market with it. Oh yes, this is supposedly the second most liquid name in the market!
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A board member said that of 14 guys at the table at a recent meeting, 11 had iPads, only he had an iPhone. Average age was 65+ at the table. They love it. Skew young might be misleading. High "functional fit" to "expressed needs" in that population. Will keep buying them with the cash they have collected from selling stocks over the past 20 weeks.
My experience dovetails. And older women love the iPad. The Kindle sample was obviously of a narrower demographic: stuffy and boring.
reflecting on something just now. i have been an apple product consumer since the classic. that was 1990. all things apple, printer keyboard monitor etc. bringing up my daughter she was around 14 y/o. she hates APPLE. she has never owned anything apple. i tried to give her an iphone and she absolutely positively declined. hey, CD can you tell me what that says about my mothering? oh her BF, roman, gave her a kindle for bday and she loves it.
i hate APPLE products. but don't know what to do without the convenience. i think they are going to f a i l †
Hey TD,
How about an update on how retarded the correlation between stocks and bonds are now. Additionally throw in the sheer insane levels the price of the market is above its VWAP. I just took a peek at the daily VWAP and price is at levels above VWAP as they were from March to May.
No worries.
If AAPL craters, money will simply fly into 5 other IBD Top 100 screamers.
Overall effect on the market will be nominal.
My prediction is that they will find "sound bases" in LULU, WYNN, SHOO, etc. and start dryhumping those....
They will continue to chase motion and breakouts until it doesn't work anymore.
LOL... What a casino....
How do you think a major crash will affect PM's?
Until today, gold was trading higher with dollar strength than without it, this since the flash crash. Last years trend had gold moving on the back of a weak dollar. I think that gold has proved it moves ahead of all assets. If something bad happens this time, monie will turn to gold first. This has happened marginally since April 21st, but people should have figured it out by now. If anyone still believes that BS Bernanke has any mojo left, they are downright stupid.
Thank you Mr.Hendrix,
Some people here like to post, and never answer learners/valid questions.
My take is the same as your's, this TRIP, we are weak, and all the Feds bullets have been fired, that will take the informed peoples eyes off the target.
The Fed's bullets...now they have "ARROWS"-Kroszner...I would like to see BS hold a bow back and fire one farther than his feet!
ANOTHER had foretold 13 years ago that the turning point for Currency problems will be when Gold and Dollar move up together. We have seen this correlation since Spring 2010.
It foretells somthing serious coming.. but the turning points predicted by ANOTHER is now in action. Time to "batten the hatch"
Icecream.
Oh oh! I know the answer! Pick me!
Okay, what will happen is the government will panic in the face of a rolling financial Armageddon, declare martial law, make it a crime of treason to hold physical gold, and send the National Guard door-to-door collecting gold from the citizenry. And they will pay a huge bounty (in fiat) to anyone who rats out an immoral Communist gold hoarder.
How'd I do?
i was in appl back in 2008 when the banks crashed... thought i was safe..
appl HAS and WILL drop like a rock since every 401k fund includes it so when they sell it has no floor
two foreshocks. word to the wise.
Not a "flash crash" - these are real trades.
I never thought I'd get the opportunity to get a couple year-old bid filled at 160 GTC
It is a flash crash, driven by real trades. A crash by another name. It's all real.
Think back a bit. When did you buy the idea that a flash crash of any kind was ever a malfunction? A lot of the discussion here has been about this key distinction, and about how the arbitrary way in which these corrections are labeled allows them to be selectively backed out at will and in fact in favor of certain parties. That these market moves are different in any way than any other kind of market move was never more than propaganda.
It is a flash crash. It is what the market does now. It is real. It is money trying to get out. One of these days it will get out and take the whole thing down 20% in 20 minutes, and then the music will have finally stopped.
Here we go again...Zero Hedge with the hysteria.
Circuit breaker day inbound.
Does anyone know if any online stock trading accounts allow you to buy/sell based on the rate of change of a stock price rather than having to provide a buy/sell price?
It might be the poor man's way of having your own "bot" that will take advantage of these mini crashes.
Flash crash, smash crash, as long as we keep it within 15% all trades will stand....
Remember CISCO?
$80-$4-5...............SOS
I can see that some fund managers are already slipping out the back door on AAPL and starting to "pile in" some of the lower grade high beta screamers:
Is that a luxury 5 star hotel he's working on for the burgeoning travel industry.
All you can eat buffet included.
J6P's living the American dream...
anybody know how many stocks account for most of the volume these days? TD had 112 for 50% or so a week or two ago, I'm new by the way - hello all...
Hmmmm... Insiders selling 1400:1, so I wonder about AAPL? I went here and put in the ticker. http://www.insidercow.com/
They must get paid by the bushel? That COO, Timmy Cook, did OK in March, huh?
This is so like late summer/early fall 2008. Recall we began to see strange action in a few names/markets that couldn't be explained. The quant funds had a disasterous Aug-08, the market climed for a couple more months and then tanked. This movie looks very familiar - Dash for the Exit 2...
Wriggle like a fish .. sick bastards.
Have to make hay while the sun shines. These are great trading markets. If you can't make money now - fugetaboutit.
The question is, is the Fed raping the DXY to encourge repatriation of companies offshore accounts? Get them to bring it over get some tax on it before a) DXY strengthens, and b) New tax laws take effect.
Vegas should put odds on the daily flash crash stock. There could be parlays with the most popular porn site the SEC is looking at today.
I don't view Apple as being an "expensive stock." Analysts see 16% growth going forward, and that seems conservative based on their recent growth. TTm earnings of $13.28 = PE of 22. It's not expensive. Now Amazon, that's an expensive stock.
Reggie's detailed analysis would suggest differently regarding that growth figure. The main point is that, compared to other companies that have pulled off similar or better numbers, Apple stock has spiked way the hell higher. Reason? Their hilarious weighting on the NASDAQ.
Really, you could accurately argue that Microsoft is significantly undervalued compared to Apple. If you're making the argument just based on standard valuation, this is fairly obvious.
At 15 % , these mini crashes allow hft bots to scoop up stocks on "allowable" volatility. Quote stuff the asks all the way down to 15 %, don' t get greedy and make a series of chipshots.
If they crash the stock down 20% then the jig is up. So, they get a good on base % instead of the flash crash home run- and see how far the SEC can have it's head up it's ass before it reacts.
1-2% is all within reason.
Let's face it, the banks are scooping up stocks at a high price, although it's free money, the stocks if allowed to go down naturally they would lose like 40%.
So, it looks like the HFT programmers are rebelling and sticking it to the public and SEC. What's the SEC going to do? Nothing because they are dipshits
Shi-it, Sack is working hard to keep AAPL and BIDU up...
Can someone with a prop desk/S&T perspective see whats wrong with this post?
Do you see the vol at the open? About 900k shares moved it ~$8. Is that a flash crash?
Another 1.7MM moved it $11 down at 9:32.
And then a large dump came in with the ~1.1MM shares moving it down before the algos (below VWAP = BUY) swooped right in.
Its called liquidity, and in a name like AAPL where shares aren't cheap, you can't expect the MMs to be keeping 100s of millions $ on either side of the book.
True. Also add the fact that hundreds of hedgefunds are getting jittery about one of their three only working longs...
Ah, the illusion of wealth. I love it when they say " $trillions of wealth lost after the crash" as if it existed in the first place. The movers of price account for a tiny fraction of the total outstanding shares. There is no way AAPL's market cap could ever be redeemed. Mark to model is for the banksters, not bag holders.
Apple is starting to catch up big in China, its releases are now timed closer to US market launches.
http://www.macrumors.com/2010/09/26/iphone-4-launches-in-china-to-thousa...
If you were to witness the number of people who use iPhones in Hong Kong you would has doubts about Apple falling apart anytime soon. THey can hardly keep up with demand. I work with individuals in the semiconductor industry and they have endless problems keeping up with demand. Now with that being said, who knows how overvalued the stock actually is. It looks bloated from here, but as far as whether Apple is healthy and growing like a weed, well that part looks to be true.
As the US marketplace begins to taper off, China will be there to fill some of the void. If you have watched Apples moves recently they have been pushing into China at an aggressive pace.
When you take the train into Central in Hong Kong, the number of people using an Apple handheld device is roughly 4:1. It is surprising that other phone companies actually turn a profit it is that obvious.
True, but that's nothing new, I've lived there. One misstep, and you'll have a lot of worried investors running for the door. But it's up to you if you want to stay on that side of the boat. That said, good luck, we all need it right now.
All these new consumers (a very significant share) are not core Apple devotees but rather going for the latest and the greatest. Droid has shown that competition is tough and can swing the pendulum in a hurry. It will at least force apple to move up their releases of products and upgraded features. We'll see how many they have in their bag of tricks to maintain the edge.
crAPPL to the moon bitchez!
m-o-o-n that spells moon.
[/Tom Cullen]
the final words of the original post are wrong...
Any bad news will not topple, but rather help the market higher...
All your flash crashes are belong to us, make your time!
Cheap
Oh I can think of LOTS of newsy things that would blow this creaking wreck to flinders. I'll make one up:
BLOOM 10/24 07:10 ** FED SAYS WILL NOT MONETIZE DEBT FURTHER
BLOOM 10/24 07:12 ** BERNANKE: WILL NOT SUPPORT US-TRES MOVES
BLOOM 10/24 07:13 ** BERNANKE: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS FX BROKEN
Poof. 800 point loss in 5 minutes. Circuit breakers every day for a week. Bank holiday. Then -- no bottom as the wheels fall off.
Glad to see after ranting for days that more and more people are starting to "get" the whole Apple thing. Forget everything else, when a gadget maker becomes the second largest company in the WORLD, bad shit's gonna happen when the inevitable rears its head.
Throw in an enormous SPX weighting as well as NAZ and disaster looms.
yes, the witchery of paltry things holds us all in thrall. gadgets, gizmos, gimcracks running amuck while the sheistcrafters have us pleading for more of these fascinating, shiny, luminous baubles of narcissism. all those buzzing, flashing, electro-pulsations coursing through those cold cyclopean nightlights dispelling the bogeymen of existential discontent in neurotic flights of triviality, porno, and transaction. the self absorption and isolation of two dimensional screen heads blindered and frozen in cyber mazes of apathetic indifference. and the world turns by, unknown. never has so much been devoted to so many for so little. Apple, as in the devil's bargain
Now that's perspective. But the argument has to extend to the current forum as well. We are, presumably, not lacking in existential discontent.
Distraction, transaction, triviality--all at the heart of the gadget and Web 2.0 bubble, with iPhone app developers taking over the world from their living rooms, 99 cents at a time; tech blogs being sold to AOL (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/technology/29aol.html?_r=1&src=busln -- LOL); the combination of money and gadgetry (cf. HFT) is the ultimate fetish for the young urban male who never learned about possible larger meanings in life.
they should decentralize some of this... in future, ask your friendly Fed examiner where to invest/where to lend.
.
It's a lot like watching the Titanic go down. It all starts with a bump, then a slow groaning, then little leaks begin to spout out in the weak areas.
That's when the cracks start to appear.
Then...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M78hSRyKtoA&feature=related
The notion that this was a flash crash caused by HFT is RIDICULOUS!!! Anyone who has traded equities will tell you this has been happening for at least the last decade. Maybe it hasnt happened in Apple before but AAPL hasnt always been this highly priced. If you wanted to sell 1 billion worth of AAPL in one day this is arguable the best way to do it. Seeing how AAPL was below 280 a few weeks ago its not that big of a move. If you couple together a large sell order at the open with many traders and hedge funds long the stock and many stops going off, this is what you get -- A sharp 5-7% move in a minute or 2. Tyler, please educate yourself before you reck your reputation.
I bought the first 'crash', gonna love the quick and fat profit.
I am able to see about 15 sell/buy orders for each stock using Ameritrade. Obviously professionals and bots can see all sell/buy orders.
(pardon me if this has been mentioned before, I am new to this site)
So the obvious algorithm would be this:
1. Make sure you are dealing with a high-volume stock, so that you can sell it when you want to.
2. Wait for the sell orders to get soft. By soft I mean when buying a low volume of a stock can bring the price down significantly. But also making sure that the overall markets are up, so it increases the chances that the stock price will recover.
3. Slowly sell off the stocks at the recovered price.
So for Apple, the algo would have bought from 288 down to 283. And then sell at a price that is above the weighted average of these buy orders. So for this instance the stock recovered at around 286-287. That means my average buy was (assuming all things simple) 285.5 and my average sell is 286.5. The mini-crash volume was about 1million shares, so within a few minutes someone or some thing could have profited $1M.
But you gotta be quicker than the other guy. And if you both spot a soft spot, then guess what ... that stock will come down faster and farther than both of you wanted it to. And you will only draw attention to yourself. So now algos have to be programmed to watch for other algos.
1) Flash Crashes are artifacts of day trading but at millisecond scales. The banks seem not to have a minimum time limit nor a maximum slope in their trending algorithms.
2) Another artifact, as shown, is inter-day correlation. A Flash Crash in one place can spread like a virus.
3) As these new patterns are establish in smaller and smaller time scales, there should be new larger trends emerging: like distrust of the market. 21st week of investors bailing on the market? Indeed, we are seeing it already and due to the first major Flash Crash.
Thus, just wait until the HTF robots start trading on the fear that they themselves are creating. If the technicals line up, this could happen fast! This is one point the banks didn't anticipate in creating these machines. LOL.
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