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Second Tropical Depression, With 60% Chance Of Becoming A Cyclone, Forming Over Macondo Zone

Tyler Durden's picture




 

According to the NHC, a weather formation, centered about 50 miles south-southeast of
Morgan City, Louisiana, is packing sustained winds near
tropical storm force. As the map below indicates, this is above the Macondo blowout. According to Reuters, "t
here was a "high chance" it will become the
second named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season before it makes
landfall in the Terrebonne Parish area near Caillou Bay early Monday
evening, the Miami-based hurricane center said." Tomorrow, the news of yet another 60% probability cyclone ramming the cleanup effort will be digested alongside the WSJ report that Libya is allegedly looking to make a staple British company part-owned by the Khadafi regime. And just in case one was not enough, it appears a second Hurricane is forming further south: "
Forecasters at the hurricane center were also
keeping close watch over an area of disturbed weather in the
southeastern Gulf that could strengthen into a tropical depression later
this week, potentially hampering oil spill clean-up efforts."

From the National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN

 

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Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:19 | 453615 Abundance
Abundance's picture

That bodes really well for the oil cleanup efforts!  You're doing a great job, Brownie.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 22:24 | 453708 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

what position does "Browie" hold?

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 23:55 | 453748 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

Brownie's position is purely symbolic - he, as Bush's Katrina-era FEMA Director, represents Obama's AWOL FEMA Director, uh, er, what's his name...  Well, I don't know the guy's name because, whereas the inept Brownie at least showed up in NOLA to accept his severance package, Obama's man is, uh, well I don't know where he is.  Anyone?  Seems to be a low profile kinda guy.  Prolly staying at the ready for the potential incidence of a real emergency.  Could be out marking off 65-foot boundaries around dead pelicans.

Not to worry though, the B-squad - Obama, the lovely Napolitano, that Coast Guard dude, Gilligan and the Skipper too - has been all over it like white on rice since Day One, to ensure that the hole gets plugged before O's 4 years is up.  Because, you see, O is gonna need a legacy to enshrine at his *ego-normous* Hope&Change Presidential Library to be situated on that convenient Rezko tract back in Hyde Park, and wrecking the economy, alienating our international friends, nationalizing industry, sharpening up the 3-point stroke, propagating a viable third US political party, renovating Guantanamo, giving KSM a soapbox, giving the Racist But Very Reverend Wright a soapbox, handing Afghanistan back to the Tolly-ban, gumming up an excellent system of health care for decades to come, supporting the Mullahs, dumping the Jews, undermining the Constitution, losing the Olympics, redistributing wealth, destroying wealth, selling citizenship for votes, losing control of the Congress, inciting racial divisiveness, whittling the handicap down to 22, lining up a great gig at GS, putting Blago behind bars, those won't do. 

Butt plugging the hole would certainly be a fitting legacy, a painful one we'll all remember for a very long time. 

O's real legacy, however, will be that he inadvertantly woke up a slumbering electorate/citizenry.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 06:16 | 453974 BostonTettierOwner
BostonTettierOwner's picture

"...gumming up an excellent system of health care..."

good one 2 thumbs up !

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 23:07 | 453754 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Just watched a 27 minute documentary (available for streaming on Netflix), "Big Easy to Big Empty," which exposes that Innovative Emergency Management, run by some Republican donors, won a $500k FEMA contract for preparing evacuation plan for New Orleans.  Only problem was that IEM didn't create an evacuation plan for New Orleans.  Who did?  LSU professor Igor van Heerden.  He gives a reluctant interview for the documentary saying that he will probably face retribution.  Where is Igor van Heerden now?  LSU fired him late last year.  As a resident of Louisiana and a graduate of LSU, I am very ashamed of both.

http://www.gregpalast.com/big-easy-to-big-empty-the-untold-story-of-the-drowning-of-new-orleans/

 

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:19 | 453616 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Too slow...it's come ashore and has been downgraded to 0% formation. The item in the NW Carrib. does bear watching with tracks tightening in agreement with solid Texas coastal landfall (assuming it forms into a storm). This track has been progressively migtating north and east.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=96&a=2

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:22 | 453623 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So when the oil is a complete mess on land, and the drinking water for several locations becomes contaminated, then will the PTB declare marshal law and ban all news outlets from reporting? 

 

{OT} So the ES is getting pounded right now.  Kind of like a fugly white trash chick in a porn{/OT}

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:39 | 453641 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Are you with the SEC?

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:42 | 453644 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

lol...they don't work on holidays silly.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 23:10 | 453758 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@MsC

Classic!

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 21:04 | 453661 jeb3
jeb3's picture

The PTB declared martial law many years ago, most just haven't realized it yet. You don't go from freedom loving republic to fascist police state overnight.  If you're under the illusion that there isn't already COMPLETE media manipulation / blackout regarding the GoM then good luck to you.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 22:35 | 453717 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Ouch, I'd better raise the sell limit price on those puts.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 22:35 | 453718 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

double post

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:23 | 453625 Muir
Muir's picture

" the WSJ report that Libya is allegedly looking to make a staple British company part-owned by the Khadafi regime."

 

Seems like a setup to me.

Explains the rise in BP but it just seems too... crafted. 

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:31 | 453631 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I find it amazing (or perhaps horrifying) that BP would entertain such an offer from a country that holds one of the culprits (Abdul Baset Ali al-Megrahi) of the Pan Am 103 crash (who supposedly on deaths doorstep has made a miraculous recovery from cancer).

They make this deal with the harborer of American (and other nationality) murders BP should be banned from business in the US.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 23:12 | 453762 Cursive
Cursive's picture

For their criminal negligence alone (and that's for TAPS and Texas City in addition to Macondo), BP should be banned from business in the U.S.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 23:32 | 453790 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

fair enough

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:26 | 453628 Ben Graham
Ben Graham's picture

As of 8:00 EDT this area had a 0% chance of Tropical Storm formation.  Crisis averted, thanks to the diligence of the EPA.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:42 | 453645 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bonds are rocketing tonight.

Check out these insane yields.

  COUPON MATURITY
DATE
CURRENT
PRICE/YIELD
PRICE/YIELD
CHANGE
TIME 3-Month 0.000 09/30/2010 0.16
/
.16
0.001 / .001 20:00 6-Month 0.000 12/30/2010 0.21
/
.21
0.004 / .004 20:00 12-Month 0.000 06/30/2011 0.29
/
.29
-0.004 / -.004 20:00 2-Year 0.625 06/30/2012 100-01½
/
.60
0-01½ / -.024 20:17 3-Year 1.125 06/15/2013 100-14+
/
.97
0-04 / -.043 20:33 5-Year 1.875 06/30/2015 100-18+
/
1.75
0-09½ / -.062 20:20 7-Year 2.500 06/30/2017 100-21½
/
2.39
0-13½ / -.066 20:36 10-Year 3.500 05/15/2020 104-31
/
2.92
0-17 / -.061 20:38 30-Year 4.375 05/15/2040 108-16
/
3.89
0-30+ / -.052 20:38

 

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:47 | 453652 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

whoa! nikkei is down 1.44%...what I miss?

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 22:04 | 453658 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Bonds skyrocketing in flight....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IExlGbJLTrg

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 21:07 | 453663 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

BDI still in massive free fall....longest loosing streak in 5 yrs.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 22:15 | 453698 zhandax
zhandax's picture

It's only a flesh wound.....

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 20:45 | 453647 TrulyStupid
TrulyStupid's picture

I just knew the National Day of Prayer would bring results... God will send us a hurricane to disperse the oil slick and make the Gulf a safe environment for corporate profits once again.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 21:38 | 453681 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

God said "Flush"

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 21:19 | 453670 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

This storm remnant right over the spill area is like a curse, hanging on to haunt BP, the oil drillers and the whole "drill, drill, drill" party. Mother nature won't let the hangover go away.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 22:29 | 453711 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

You know what they say about a woman scorned.

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 22:42 | 453729 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Riders of the storm...

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 22:44 | 453730 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Writers of the storm...

Mon, 07/05/2010 - 23:16 | 453767 TrulyStupid
TrulyStupid's picture

Perhaps its time to look at the worse case scenario:

 

http://earthblognews.wordpress.com/2010/06/16/earthblog-news-oil-spill-f...

Password is "BP"

 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 00:13 | 453824 Equity Research Rex
Equity Research Rex's picture

Is HARRP preventing these storms from hitting the clean up area?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 00:45 | 453856 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

No harrp is busy causing unintended consequences deep in the earths crust.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 01:12 | 453884 merehuman
merehuman's picture

drilling a mile below the gulf, chem trails, haarp and vaccines are good for us! They would not do it otherwise . Our wonderful government is always looking to our best interest.  Sarcasm intended.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 02:40 | 453919 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Market research is indeed correct.  The opportunity is now upon us to re-brand the Gulf Of Mexico as

the Gulf of Liberty

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlVczvB4FQk&feature=related

Mmmmm...tastes like chicken....

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 02:42 | 453924 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area2#contents

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 07:00 | 453979 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

That mississippi river is going to be 50 miles wide before too long.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 07:38 | 453987 fxquant
fxquant's picture

60%??????? total b*llspit!

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 10:49 | 454198 Stun Gun
Stun Gun's picture

Hurricane Katrina showed America that our government is impotent in the face of a large scale disaster. There was anarchy in the aftermath. It’s almost a sure bet it will be so again in the face of a similar disaster.

If I lived in Louisiana I would not depend on FEMA to help. I would have my own evacuation plan, and it wouldn’t hurt to be packing one of these as part of your ‘bug out plan’. Not everyone will behave badly, but you only need to encounter one who will.

Fri, 08/20/2010 - 10:26 | 532734 herry
herry's picture

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