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Secrets of Elite Funds - Brief Intro

Leo Kolivakis's picture




 

Via Pension Pulse.

What a beautiful day it was in Montreal. Absolutely perfect weather to
celebrate Mother's Day. I wish all the moms out there a Happy Mother's
Day, especially my mother who I love a lot. The only problem is that I
was out all day enjoying this weather and I'm tired as I hit the gym
early today.

Before I delve into this topic, please go back to read my comment on the value of losing money.
If you've never felt the exhilaration of making money and more
importantly, the pain of losing money in the markets, then you are not
ready to manage money, especially not your own money. Most people
shouldn't be managing their money which is why I wrote a comment on the big secret
stating that most investors are better off investing in some small cap
value ETF and rebalancing their stock/bond portfolio at least once a
year or as needed.

But I'm reminded of the wise words of Paul
Samuelson who once remarked that if everyone adopts Burton Malkiel's
"random walk" approach and invests in ETFs, even small cap value ETFs,
then the collective actions of many will influence future returns. I
mention this because legendary fund manager Jeremy Grantham, chairman of
fund shop GMO and one of the few people who successfully called the
2008 crash in advance, is warning investors that small cap stocks are overvalued:

His
firm’s latest calculations predict that investors in U.S. small-cap
stocks will actually lose about a fifth of their money in real terms
over the next seven or so years. That’s an annualized loss of about
2.8% after inflation.

 

As always when it comes to predictions, there are no guarantees. But GMO’s forecasts have a good track record.

The
article cites many reasons as to why small cap stocks are overvalued,
including QE2 and the fact that investors believe small caps outperform
over the long-run (with greater volatility), but let me tell you the
real reason why small caps are rising so much. Go back to read my
comment on whether hedge funds have grown too big. With so much money being shoveled to hedge funds, it's not surprising to see small cap stocks rally so strongly.

Why
is that? For one, a large percentage of hedge fund investments go to
Long/Short Equity funds. The strategy of these funds is very similar.
They go long small cap stocks which are not covered properly by analysts
and go short large cap stocks which are more liquid and covered to
death by analysts. I wouldn't be surprised if many hedge funds are just
swapping into a small cap index for their long position.

I believe
in tracking the activity of elite funds closely. In particular, I track
quarterly holdings of a number of elite hedge funds and long-only
funds, many of which I mentioned in the past when I wrote about why small is beautiful.
Why do I track quarterly holdings of elite funds? Simply because the
best funds attract the best talent (they can pay them top dollar) and
they typically exhibit performance persistence over a long period.
You're not going to get a thousand elite funds. Only the cream of the
crop can truly boast of long-term success.

The question I often
get is do I just mimic what these top funds are doing? I don't mimic
anyone and will choose my entry and exit very carefully. The quarterly
holdings of top funds helps me focus, especially if I notice a cluster
of activity in a certain stock or sector. Institutional investors
investing in top funds should be asking them their top 10 long and short
positions every month and the reasons behind these positions.

I
screen stocks daily, looking at largest percentage moves (up and down),
moves on unusual volume, and then I add them to a list of stocks that I
filter by industry. This allows me to see if the stocks are moving in
unison (beta) or if it's company specific news moving one stock up or
down.

There are always news stories covering some elite hedge fund. For example, Marketwatch reports that Greenlight Capital is betting on a possible initial public offering by auto-parts maker Delphi Automotive. Minyanville reports that Einhorn’s quarterly letter
to investors in his funds discussed establishment of new positions in
Internet-giant Yahoo (YHOO) and electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY).
This is the type of information I look for to do my own analysis,
paying close attention to whether other elite funds are also initiating
or accumulating more shares of certain companies.

It sounds
easy but it's far from easy. Quite often stocks that are being bought by
top funds are also heavily shorted or heavily manipulated by other
funds. You might see great earning reports, one after the other, and yet
the stock keeps falling, leaving you bewildered. Trading stocks,
especially day or swing trading stocks, is not an easy game. I've done
it before, and will do it again if I have to, but it's very tough to
consistently make money. You need to have discipline, cut your losses,
and know that things can get very volatile (tight stop losses can work
against you).

I'm running out of gas so I will come back to this
topic next weekend, providing you with more analysis of what top funds are
actually buying and selling. If you love picking stocks, this is going
to be a treat for you.

 

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Mon, 05/09/2011 - 06:14 | 1254820 Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

Goddamm this is a tough crowd.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:49 | 1254878 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I chuckle because I bet you a bunch of hedgies are reading my posts saying "shut up Leo, we don't want you to reveal our secrets!". LOL! Please keep in mind that my articles are not geared just to expert traders on ZH, but to a lot of people who are just regular investors.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1255203 CPL
CPL's picture

What's a regular investor again?  It's a dangerous path trying to nail that down.  Only guy I could ever recommend to "regular" investors and pros for the sake of interest is Tim Sykes.  He's got a bit of a cult of personality thing going on, but he has solid training material and understands this about making money, not leading with your heart or intution.  For their price tag, they are worth the investment if planning on "investing" or "trading".  Whatever the word is for it these days.

 

I'm just not sure if you're selling something or just talking about something half the time.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 10:31 | 1255371 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I'm selling nothing. I want to share my knowledge with people and educate them. That simple. I don't buy anything these ''gurus'' claim. I am fiercely independent and do my own DD.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 06:00 | 1254810 CPL
CPL's picture

Leo you pick with your heart, I could say that's good, but you avoid the proper aspects of today's market.  There are zero promises of returns.  I could point out my average trade lasts maybe...maybe 15 minutes, sometimes even shorter.  And I use a shit tonne of tools.  From an eclipse trader built into an HFT, to a million and one spreadsheets to determine spreads built with other traders and shared with them to give ourselves the shape of the day.

 

Then again I deal in the nuclear fissionable trade material called x3 leveraged ETF's.  Between the x3ETF's and say...clean energy stocks...or car manufacturing...or oil.  All running at x1 and against valuation of the stock purchaser, I seriously can't see a difference anymore.

If I'm playing against or for the S&P for the moment, I'll pick up TNA/TZA or whatever else is happening, I'll trade on that spot and jump back and forth like a dog following a bone.  If the weather looks bad and nothing is happening, I'll post on here to annoy the shit out of you.  Otherwise, seriously man, I've never heard you mention the magic words to saving value yet.

Good Until Cancelled Stop Loss 3% under your buy price.

If someone bought far to deep in on the top.  It saves them a shit tonne of money.  If their timing is good and they think they got a bargain, "how can they go wrong?".  It's fairly binary, simple and helps people save a fuck-tonne of money.

These aren't normal markets, it's a bizarro superman universe, not hedging a trade with something as simple as a stop loss is ridiculious.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 05:42 | 1254804 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Aww guys give the young feller a break. You dont have to read him if you find his info not germane to your situation. Leo provides basic information services for amateur investors that would not normally be available to them.

That said keep in mind the hindu belief that everyone gets the investment advise they deserve. Leo has his place in the grand scheme of things.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 05:17 | 1254799 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

fluff for some - stuff for others.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 05:14 | 1254797 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Elitism was best summarized by a master Elitist : Plato. Read Plato and you'll understand why elitism is a burden on the man who aspires to it, not a blessing. Being a Philosopher King is like putting the greatest mill stone a man could put around his own neck,  then assuming its burden come what may. It requires self less service to cause all through life.That is why all through the ages people have junked the true sense of elitism as it should be for man, to subsequently assume the garb of Machiavellian elitism which has become the face of Prince in an empty house where there is no soul, no substance, just wicked opportunism and power-play; Mafia style. As this philosophy now prevails in modern world and the philosopher-king elitist ethic is long dead : that of first defining "general good" in public debate then sustaining it with help of the truly elected, this method now mocked as a "bleeding hearts pipe-dream" by the "realists" whose only know one official religion : "reasons of State", centrally planned rip-off by private criminal networks acting as public servants to satisfy their own unlimited greed. We now live the ultimate tremors of the current "elitist" global game which is nothing but crass, Oligarchic power play. We deserve the kings we serve... One word personified feudal elitism in the medieval age. It lacked the vision and the depth of analysis of the ancient Greeks. But it represented a form of personal quest for perfection in society : Paratge of Occitan times. Understand Paratge, 'convivencia', and one understands personal commitment to exemplary conduct, tolerance, in a feudal world.

Today we have neither ancient Greek philosophy's example of a Pericles nor that of medieval Paratge, as personified ironically by a Saladin. We just have WS and the GS mantra. Wow, brave new world!

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 06:21 | 1254823 anony
anony's picture

So you would short AAPL, eh?

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 06:47 | 1254837 falak pema
falak pema's picture

sorry but I have ethics even in my wallet and I've been a great Apple fan since...1985. And it's only got better since Steve Jobs came back. Now it hurts to see them Sooooooooo...Oligarchic...On top of the heap like a plutocrat! It's like seeing Robin Hood dressed up as the wicked Sheriff of Nottingham...

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 02:26 | 1254745 Stormdancer
Stormdancer's picture

good grief... I guess P.T. Barnum really was right.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 00:22 | 1254643 Ted K
Ted K's picture

I'm going to give you a break Leo, this was actually a decent post.  Just try to stay consistent in your message eh???  If your stock picks are as schizo as your posts I can imagine why you had some probs.  But this was a decent post.   I like the Greenlight link.  You might have discussed some of Einhorn's overseas holdings a little.

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 23:47 | 1254584 White.Star.Line
White.Star.Line's picture

I look at the world around me, and I can see the results of "secret elites funds" flow, from huge scale graft-shaft to burning down the planet for profit.
Follow the "elite" fund trail and it always leads to some arrogant, egotistical maniac with old money who thinks he owns the world because his family learned how to pickpocket better than anyone else.

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 23:25 | 1254538 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Secrets of elite funds... and then there are none.  Gee, I wonder if I should subscribe to his con man service?

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 04:09 | 1254782 Popo
Popo's picture

Exactly. Another pathetically short ZH post by a contributor, which has almost no substance.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 05:44 | 1254805 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Yeah the tylers set a high bar.

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 23:21 | 1254520 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

Let me sum it up for you... Secrets of "Elite" Funds... Get a contact at the FED or Treasury and trade on what is going to happen before it actually occurs.

Honestly... The days of believing you Mr. Leo are something special are over.  Dont try to push your "its far from easy" BS.  You are nothing more than snake oil salesman trying to still hope people do not realize that you are mostly salesman, and part crook...  If you constantly achieving "elite" trading, then statistics tells the rest of us you are getting insider information.  

Why dont you instead go and purchase some airtime on CNBC?  Seeing how poorly they are doing lately, you probably will be able to get airtime on the cheap.  Also, there is more of the type of audience that is still dumb enough to believe your sales pitch, so I suspect you will do rather well there.

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 23:29 | 1254545 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

+999.9

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!