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Senior Chinese Military Officers Join Iran In Delivering "Punch" To U.S., Propose Selling Treasuries As Arms Sales Punishment

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And you were worried about Iran. China's People Liberation Army has come out and openly said that the nuclear option, i.e., selling US Treasuries, is now on the table and should be exercised as "punishment" for U.S.' arms sales to Taiwan. China undoubtedly realizes that this is a prime example of sado-masochism as the resultant plunge in Treasuries that would follow would hurt the US certainly, but also have a "mild to quite mild" impact on China's $700 (and likely much greater) UST holdings. Game theory 101 just got interesting.

From Reuters:


Senior Chinese
military officers have proposed that their country boost defense
spending, adjust PLA deployments, and possibly sell some U.S. bonds to
punish Washington for its latest round of arms sales to Taiwan.

The calls for broad retaliation over the
planned U.S. weapons sales to the disputed island came from officers at
China's National Defence University and Academy of Military Sciences, interviewed by Outlook Weekly, a Chinese-language magazine published by
the official Xinhua news agency.

The
interviews with Major Generals Zhu Chenghu and Luo Yuan and Senior
Colonel Ke Chunqiao appeared in the issue published on Monday.

The
People's Liberation Army (PLA) plays no role in setting policy for
China's foreign exchange holdings. Officials in charge of that area
have given no sign of any moves to sell U.S. Treasury bonds over the
weapons sales, a move that could alarm markets and damage the value of
China's own holdings.

While far
from representing fixed government policy, the open demands for
retaliation by the PLA officers underscored the domestic pressures on
Beijing to deliver on its threats to punish the Obama administration
over the arms sales.

"Our
retaliation should not be restricted to merely military matters, and we
should adopt a strategic package of counter-punches covering politics,
military affairs, diplomacy and economics to treat both the symptoms
and root cause of this disease," said Luo Yuan, a researcher at the
Academy of Military Sciences.

Not only that, but China is now openly escalating vis-a-vis Taiwan.


Chinese has blasted the United States over
the planned $6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan unveiled in late
January, saying it will sanction U.S. firms that sell weapons to the
self-ruled island that Beijing considers a breakaway province of China.

China
is likely to unveil its official military budget for 2010 next month,
when the Communist Party-controlled national parliament meets for its
annual session.

The PLA officers suggested that budget should mirror China's ire toward Washington.

"Clearly propose that due to the threat in the Taiwan Sea, we are increasing military spending," said Luo.

Last
year, the government set the official military budget at 480.7 billion
yuan ($70.4 billion), a 14.9 percent rise on the one in 2008,
continuing a nearly unbroken succession of double-digit increases over
more than two decades.

Next question: will China follow through on the increasingly populist sentiment to hurt the U.S. If the U.S. is any indication of the strength of populist anger, now may be a good time to take some "profit", or book the loss as the case may be, in that 30 Year position.

 

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Thu, 05/13/2010 - 13:28 | 349501 saxecoburggotha
saxecoburggotha's picture

Once again you are entirely avoiding the errors I have pointed out in your reasoning as they don't conform with your pseudo-religious belief system. You have no legitimate argument period.

 

 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 15:52 | 349917 Yophat
Yophat's picture

LOL Tell it to the devil!!!

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:49 | 350266 saxecoburggotha
saxecoburggotha's picture

Another PERFECT demonstration of my point on your part. Pseudo-religious beliefs meet religious beliefs.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 12:46 | 352037 Yophat
Yophat's picture

Glad to see you are happy!

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:42 | 224348 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Douchinger is not a fool for correctly identifying the laughableness of Chinese weapons and their armed forces, he is a fool for believing that we could selectively default on our largest creditor and not have any knock-on effects like the firesale by everybody else before we default on them for doing something we don't like.  Douchinger's prized FRNs would go tits up real quick.  Insanely, the TF paper bulls seem to believe that this type of UST collapse would actually make THEIR paper become more valuable!

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 12:50 | 225052 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The only laughable weapons are coming from India. The US strategy is too dependent on symmetrical warfare.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 01:21 | 224568 Kayman
Kayman's picture

The Good News:

Most Chinese Weapons are MADE IN CHINA. Geez, I pulled the trigger, but the trigger broke. That's O.K. we will replace it for free with another (defective) trigger.

China is making noise, acting like they really mean it... what nonsense.

Even the Chinese Communist Fascists can't afford to lose their main customer. Anyway, first they would have to get permission from Walmart.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 12:56 | 225059 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Communist Fascist? You reflect like a typical Glenn Beck viewer. Full of contradictions and throwing around terms you cannot even define in any logical capacity.
How have these patriot missiles worked out for you in Iraq, huh? China's economy is only 18% exports to the US, whereas the US is 70% consumption made possible by a propped up dollar.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:53 | 223945 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hehe -
Denninger should not talk so loudly about the US military might as long as it is still bogged down and losing to a bunch of 3-rd world peasants.

Second, the Navy is like those knights in shining armour right about when the crossbow was invented: one anti-ship missile and ... BooM goeth one Carrier!

Third, the Chinese should try sell their bonds in the market, nobody will buy them unless its at cents to the dollar. The Chinese will find that this hurts them a lot more than it does the US; GS will probably find a way to make trillions from it, rubbing salt in the wound.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:16 | 224315 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Asshole. What the fuck do you know about US military capabilities? You are probably some shit hole little jerk off who can't tell his ass from a hole the ground.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 12:58 | 225064 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yup, based upon your demeanor and your limited vocabulary you definitely qualify to be a delusional american.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 18:34 | 224139 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

China had a restaraunt in the Hunan Province that was in business for 400 years.

And we are just going to waltz over there and beat them ALL up.

Is that right?

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 18:48 | 224156 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Apologies for OT:  Was in China about two months ago and enjoyed a meal at Quanjude, a restaurant known for its trademark Roast Duck and its longstanding culinary heritage since its establishment in 1864 in Beijing. Always funny to hear how a business in the USA is 15 years 'old'.... like that is a long time?

And yes, the food was excellent :)

PS: just wait until you use their 200+ mph trains in China, they are a very smooth ride.

 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 19:15 | 224185 velobabe
velobabe's picture

i went to that same one, well everyone probably goes cause it is so good and notoriously known. that was a year before the olympics, still had a little old country feel. ya know why they put fast rail in. so they can run complete kletocracy out the natural resouces out of tibet.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 20:30 | 224264 seventree
seventree's picture

Way OT but you started it: a London hotel was recently closed for Olympics modernization. Until then the 16-room Eyrie Mansion in Jermyn Street had survived quite a lot since its opening in 1685.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 02:07 | 224597 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Opium Wars ring any bells?

Where is Queen Vicky when you need her?  We should sail our fleet right up their ass and get them back on the pipe

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 03:59 | 224642 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yes, the opium war rings a bell. The British ran out of silver to pay for their huge tea consumption. In order to satisfy their thirst for tea, they had to put up that opium stuff.
It would be comical if the consequences had not been that disastrous.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 13:14 | 225083 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Although, India which has always been a much easier target should naturally be taken first.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 18:10 | 224115 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Silly rabbit. The Chinese aren't playing chess, they're playing weiqi, or commonly known as "go." And that's how they are going end up on top eventually.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:36 | 224340 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

binGO

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 20:00 | 224236 perchprism
perchprism's picture

Just the credible threat of selling off Treasuries could start a stampede for the exits.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 15:58 | 223796 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Well yes it would hurt them but I've likened this to the standoff in The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Someone will pull the trigger first, Japan, the Fed, or China. Personally I believe that the person who pulls the trigger first "wins" IE they get hurt the least where the others who are late out the door will be crushed under a collapsing dollar. This is not to say it would cause damage and chaos, it most assuredly would, however it will happen sooner or later and the parties are staring each other down. Someone will panic sooner or later and pull the trigger.

What I'm really waiting to see is an arms sale from China to Iran as a tit-for-tat to really get the crazy chicken hawks in USA frothing at the mouth.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:11 | 223838 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I don't think the dollar will collapse. Selling bonds = higher interest rates = higher dollar = higher yuan = lower exports for China and a loss on the remaining bonds.

Of course, they could then just lower the peg on the interest rate. And then the US would probably impose import tariffs, and the trade war would be on.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:55 | 223949 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

A flood of capital out of the United States is NOT dollar bullish. You think capital is going to remain if one major player exits? THere will be a rush for the exits as the entire ponzi house of cards collapses (that being the US). People like you and Doucheinger need to wake up.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:46 | 223931 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Isn't Iran now China's second largest source of oil?  They will protect it. And they can. As others have pointed out, they will do it without firing one shot. Using, that is, overusing our military, has only weakened us. And in the end, Iraq did not simply hand back the oil to the multinationals.  Forgive my ignorance, but even if we act first, how do we get out from being crushed by a collapsing dollar?

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:56 | 223951 George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

This thing can turn so ugly so quickly it'll make your head spin.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:00 | 223962 Shameful
Shameful's picture

I did not say that the USA could act and not be crushed by a collapsing dollar. I said the Fed could evade it and sell first, big difference. The Fed is after all "independent" and could move in the interest of it's owners. You and I will be crushed no mater what the giants do. And eventually the giants will pull the trigger and we will me harmed in the ensuing currency crisis no matter who pulls the trigger or when.

I cannot say what a person should be in to protect themselves. ZH is filled with experts that of course can. Personally I'm in PMs because I expect they will always have some value and I'm willing to take a paper lose in the short term since to me it is an insurance policy for when the dollar joins the fiat currency graveyard. I'm less concerned with making a vast fortune at this time then I am trying to make sure that I will have some form of capital in the interesting times ahead, but doubtlessly many great fortunes will be made by those who can properly time the markets.

And yes there is an economic connection between China and Iran. China is trying to broaden out it's energy sources and it would not surprise me if we saw a weapons for oil deal between the two of them soon. There has been speculation of something of that nature in Chinese media if memory serves. As a retaliation of the US actions with Taiwan of course.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:29 | 224034 laughing_swordfish
laughing_swordfish's picture

I agree.

If I were Chairman of the Presidium of the Chinese Politburo I would definitely consider a massive arms sale to Iran (including strategic weapons systems), partly on credit, partly as an outright grant, and partly in exchange for oil.

Even better would be to station a regiment of the Second Artillery Corps (China's equivalent of the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces) directly in Iran, and give the key to the ayatollahs.

We would, of course, reverse the deal if the US gives up its support for Taiwan and cancels the weapons sale....

Just thinking.

 

KrvtKpt. laughing swordfish

Promoted today to:

Kommandant im Deputize

Reichsministerium des GesellschaftKapitalesHandels

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:39 | 224064 Double down
Double down's picture

I believe Iran's budgeted price for oil is close to the current price?  I see nothing scary here other than the insanity trade and China is fully capable of shooting itself in the foot.  The dilemma for them is that whatever they do, they hurt themselves more that the "enemy".  I can see them execute decisions that actually benefits the US should they sell treasuries.  This is not a rational trade and for that reason it deserves a decent probability.

How does one immunize NPLs in China, with US treasuries. 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:39 | 224065 Double down
Double down's picture

I believe Iran's budgeted price for oil is close to the current price?  I see nothing scary here other than the insanity trade and China is fully capable of shooting itself in the foot.  The dilemma for them is that whatever they do, they hurt themselves more that the "enemy".  I can see them execute decisions that actually benefits the US should they sell treasuries.  This is not a rational trade and for that reason it deserves a decent probability.

How does one immunize NPLs in China, with US treasuries. 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:41 | 224347 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If I were Chairman of the Presidium of the Chinese Politburo I would:

give a bunch of 20-something brainiac physicists schooled on tesla & qigong a boatload of R&D funding.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:36 | 224050 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Thanks for clarifying. But didn't Timmy G correct congresswoman Kaptur and say the Fed doesn't work for private bankers but works for the public interest?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGczVEWKgl8 

So I guess they got our back

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:43 | 224071 Shameful
Shameful's picture

I broke out laughing when I saw that clip. I guess private bankers = public interest these days. Makes sense when you see the TARP arguments. We mean the same thing just speaking a different language "We work for private banks in the interest of private banks" :)

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:26 | 224330 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

GOOD GOD, I couldn't help but laugh, but it's really not funny considering what is happening to our country.

 

Kaptur; who did you work for? Goldman Sachs, but but but, Goldman Sachs, ca,ca,can I say some, Goldman Sachs, but but but, Goldman Sachs, who who who, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 23:12 | 224406 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

It's slightly more complicated than that.

Nice. Rep. Kaptur is not dissuaded. Although reading from more from her notes (does it matter?) she continuously requests that Mr. Timothy Geithner perjure himself. If only this had been what American families talked about around the dinner table.

 

---

If there is a God I thank him for allowing me to speak American English as my native tongue so as to enable me to watch the fate of the world occur in real time. Although if I were a religious type I wouldn't believe in fate. Choose ye this day whom ye shall serve. 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:58 | 223960 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

don't those chicken hawks froth so?  even as the master of d-day tried to tell us.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 19:20 | 224191 Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

I've likened this to the standoff in The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Someone will pull the trigger first, Japan, the Fed, or China. Personally I believe that the person who pulls the trigger first "wins"

As long as no one took the bullets out of their gun while they were sleeping.  Because thats how you get two types of people in this world: Those with guns, and those who dig.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 01:48 | 224581 Kayman
Kayman's picture

China already sells arms to Iran. So what else is new. When they replace their main customer- the U.S.- with Iran, I will gladly support both of them.

But for now, can this country get the message. Buying Chinese crap is akin to supporting Nazi Germany in the 1930's. We will rue the day we started buying this cheap shit at Walmart.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 15:58 | 223797 RowdyRoddyPiper
RowdyRoddyPiper's picture

"Its the eye of the tiger, it's the cream of the fight

Risin' up to the challenge of our rival

And the last known survivor stalks his prey in the night

And he's watchin' us all in the eye of the tiger."

 

...this ain't gonna end well.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 15:58 | 223801 perpetual-runner-up
perpetual-runner-up's picture

in reality, its cheaper for them to go this route then to actually have a war...

 

 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:31 | 223909 economessed
economessed's picture

And the ability to claim victory would be easier as well.  Who needs to kill people and destroy property when grabbing power through divestiture is a mere phone call/mouse click away?

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:03 | 223970 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

re: first to strike, if they sell now and buy gold (miners)/short treasuries and stocks they might well turn a profit.  goldman did in a not altogether different situation.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 15:58 | 223802 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Perhaps the calculation is that a hit to the value of their UST holdings, and the damage to exports caused by the probable appreciation of the Renminbi, is still cheaper than an actual military conflict but is likely to damage the US economy far more.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 15:59 | 223806 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

On the other hand they just put a "half off sale" sign on their Treasuries stash...

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:18 | 223864 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yes, but the US Treasuries will hold up much better than those Fannie/Freddie "guaranteed" mortgages they dumped over the past year or so. I assume we all noticed they got rid of most of that junk before they pulled the plug.

The Chinese are "hard" bargaining. The difference is that they have the upper hand, not the US.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:47 | 223940 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

what he said

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:04 | 223973 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Actually, the Chinese handed over securities that were actually backed by something and replaced them with securities backed by nothing more than hot air.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:23 | 224020 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

In principal I agree with you. However, the bond market and China sees sovereign debt as "better" than mortgage debt and I think that's because regardless of what the US says, the US has not taken the mortgage debt onto the nations balance sheet. Thus it's not really guaranteed by the US and can be defaulted on by the USA more easily than the actual USA Treasuries.

I suspect the Chinese see it as the difference between a 1st mortgage (which they consider is the Treasuries but with no real estate collateral) and a 2nd mortgage (the Fan/Fred stuff that is basically a promise to pay backed up by real estate, meaning homes they estimate are worth half or less than original purchase/face value) and they see the mortgage stuff as more toxic.

Based upon the disclosures that have come out and the fact that $1.3+ Trillion was bought by the Fed means the Chinese weren't the only ones who saw the Fred/Fannie mortgages as the bad stuff.

We shall see how this all washes out.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 21:40 | 226027 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Yep.  My money is on the "full faith and credit" crap at the national level going the same way that radical default is going now in the household sector. Unless China decides to take a page from history and just forgives it all. Odds?

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:45 | 224351 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

agreed with Miles...nations come & go, but the land endures

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:29 | 223901 Assetman
Assetman's picture

The most effective way for the Chinese to hurt the U.S. is through a little self-inflicted pain.

Perhaps, now, the Chinese truly believe the time to lay down major pain has come.

Or perhaps, Chinese military officials are gaming for a big budget booster.  Could be both...

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:09 | 223985 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

your first line was brilliant. Funny thing, they are sooo much more trained for pain than our fat sorry asses. So maybe their ultimate weapon is us.  

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:02 | 223807 bpj
bpj's picture

story has been on Drudge for hours, just saying.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:06 | 223819 tenaciousj
tenaciousj's picture

Drudge is so last decade.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 18:06 | 224111 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Drudge was so....never

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:07 | 223824 Postal
Postal's picture

Well, if someone would quit unplugging the CAT5...

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:57 | 223952 SV
SV's picture

CAT5 is so last decade... Step up to QDR Infiniband! ;)

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:35 | 224053 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I still use tokenring but I've thought about giving that ethernet a try.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 20:16 | 224246 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Wow, and here i am using ZH's BBS system with my acoustic coupler modem.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:04 | 223811 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Don't say it won't happen. Political goals usually trump economic ones.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:04 | 223812 truont
truont's picture

How exactly can the Chinese "fight" the US economically when they peg to our dollar?!

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 02:15 | 224603 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Thank you...somebody gets it.

They wouldn't HAVE an economy if it weren't for our dollar.

Let them float the RMB and see what happens to their export sector.  They already sterilized all their dollars; those are the assets sitting in their CB "backing" the yuan.

They are even more deflation-averse than we are, their stimulus was bigger and the entire country is now one big NPL.  It's been uneconomical for years now yet they continue to build.  Maybe they expect new customers from Mars.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 14:00 | 225139 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The Purchasing power of the Chinese renminbi would be allowed to increase relative to the dollar. The US only accounts for 18% of China's gdp in terms of exports. Chinese themselves would be able to afford their goods, they have already astounded the world in the past year with their domestic economy.
China's stimulus is actually going into real production and infrastructure. The US stimulus is actually going into very littler infrastructure relatively, the US stimulus is much more ineffectual. The underlying domestic economy in China is growing, the biggest NPL has been the US.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 10:25 | 224804 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

A wise farmer keeps his best milch-cow in good health.

The endgame is getting the resources.
China is getting the resources, so no further action need be taken. QED.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:06 | 223817 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Now, I don't understand all this.

I thought China was all about free trade?  Now they get upset over 6 billion in arms sales?

Free traders indeed.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:27 | 224031 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

How would the US feel if China sold $6 billion worth of arms to Cuba?

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 00:38 | 224524 jesus
jesus's picture

Nobody would give a shit. This isn't 1960.

 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:35 | 224052 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

China has learned their free trade lessons from the US. See what happens when a scientist offers his knowledge in producing a nuclear bomb. Somehow, the US does not appreciate that...

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:06 | 223818 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Have to hand it to the Chinese, they continue to make our central bankers look smart.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 14:03 | 225149 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Or have they simply been playing the Western Bourgeois for fools and are now ready to pull the rug out under them?

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 17:11 | 225549 Postal
Postal's picture

Fools? Us? No way! If we were foolish about how markets operate, we'd have asset bubbles, unsustainable debt loads, and government guarantees of NPAs.

Oh, wait...

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:07 | 223821 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Reloading puts.  I dont care if we spike another 200 Dow points.  A cliff dive awaits.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:07 | 223822 Gimp
Gimp's picture

China has realized modern warfare = economic destabilization, destroy the enemy from within. Forget landing troops and shooting off missiles that is so 20th Century...and a bad allocation of resources.

We're all monkeys, know your drugs!

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:09 | 223830 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Do the Chinese have the power to dictate US policy?

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:19 | 223869 no cnbc cretin
no cnbc cretin's picture

Yes. Or Duh!

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:32 | 223906 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

China indeed has de-facto dictated our choices by being the enabler of the destruction of our manufacturing base. US was totally complicit as if a Manchurian Candidate. For this we have an Intellegence Agency. The Agency ought to be  brokers and find the offer. China can live with pain almost as well as the North Koreans if we chose not to consume and screw their exports..but the key was boiling our frog slowly. Now our leg muscles have atrophied. If our Bonds are not good money to them we lose more than them; the US does not live in a binary world. Of course, China only dictates second in line to the little democratic and apartheid nation that does ignore UN Resolution 242 about Occupied Territory taken in Wartime for four plus decades, attacks and destroys our Intelligence ships without challenge or inquiry (USS Liberty in 1967), has hundreds of armed nuclear warheads, doesn't bother with Nuclear non-proliferation pacts, nor subjects itself to inspection, yet shrieks and gets the vapors at the obvious thought its neighbors might try to level the playing field.

 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:15 | 224008 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

These guys hold allegiance to a higher power than their nation - themselves.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:45 | 224350 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

so, so true.  could read the msm for a lifetime and not encounter that much truth-telling about the misshapen, lunatic u.s. geostrategy.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:10 | 223833 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hugh Hendry is right about those guys.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:11 | 223836 Going Down
Going Down's picture

The Art of War

To capture the enemy's entire army is better than to destroy it; to take intact a regiment, a company, or a squad is better than to destroy them. For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the supreme of excellence. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme excellence.

-Sun Tsu

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:16 | 223863 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

I wonder if the Chinese have ever read Sun Tsu..

/snark

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:01 | 223964 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

In the Nam it was better to shoot knees  of ones opponets. Takes 2 more out of the fight to rescue.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:48 | 224353 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

guess they hit more knees than we did.  as bill murray's character in stripes notes:  the u.s.: 10 and 1.  wonder what the statistic now is.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 02:17 | 224605 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah, then along came opium

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:11 | 223837 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

Trade with China is like a bad addiction.  The quicker we go cold turkey, the better it will be for our long term financial and economic health.  China is far more vulnerable economically than we are.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 14:08 | 225157 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That's what the US Treasury and the boys on Wall street would have you believe while they high tail it out of US assets personally.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:12 | 223841 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

They are threatening to sell Treasuries? (i.e. de-peg)

Exactly how is that a threat?

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 20:24 | 224258 boiow
boiow's picture

because by depegging from the dollar (selling treasuries) they are basically saying that they dont need US dollars. which means they are strong enough in their currency to trade globally not using the dollar reserve currency. combine this with the fact that the chinese government are urging their citizens to buy PM's then that acts as a 'de facto' backing for their currency (yuan). which will seriously affect the value of the dollar.

their is no reason to use the dollar as a reserve currency, its really just a bad habit that will change. imho

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:13 | 223846 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

I wonder what has changed that has resulted in an apparent Chinese willingness to challenge US hegemony?  It has been apparent from at least the onset of the 2008 financial collapse that China now has the means to inflict a serious "punch" (to use today's phrase for aggression) to the US. 

During that same time period, the US has not gone out of its way to accomodate China.  Take Iran for instance.  China has not been pleased with US-led sanctions threats against Iran, let alone military threats issued, with some regularity, against Iran.  It has also been mentioned that China did not favor re-appointment of Bernanke.  It could be, as well, that China was expecting a lower US budget deficit for both last year, the current fiscal year and 2011.  As posters here know, $trillion+ deficits have occurred, are occurring and will occur, respectively, for those 3 years.

Were the tables reversed, it is likely the US would have long since exercised an option to implode the Chinese economy, but that is because the factor of hegemony has been different up until now.

All of this, of course, is as I see it.  I know my perspective tends to be a bit different than that of many.  I respect the views expressed here and appreciate that mine are tolerated, more or less. 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:31 | 223908 Hammer59
Hammer59's picture

jplotinus--Appreciate the clear perspective.

My take is this. China has witnessed us transform from a strong creditor Nation to a weak and utterly corrupt/bankrupt debtor Nation, while they have risen from poverty to wealth. A prudent person would never lend money to a junkie. Obama can bow at meetings, but steel and tire tarriffs, Clinton's flap over Google, and other actions might seem kinda arrogant to China. The mass purchase of Gold bullion may have been a hedge against said junkie's failed rehabilitation.

For a bankrupt nation, well....yes--we love to pretend that we still have the power and prestige of a lone superpower. Rehabilitation doesnt happen overnight--even from "cold turkey".

 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:04 | 223976 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I work a lot with large Chinese Telecom businesses and have to deal with Chinese at several levels.

In my experience, the Chinese are generally aggressive and arrogant little pricks when they think that they have the upper hand (managers), subservient and smiling when not (staff).

The US has shown weakness in Chinese eyes primarily by not delivering on Geitner's promise of preserving the value of Chinese investments. Therefore the US is now lower on the power scale than China and therefore they can of course crap on the US at their leisure.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:51 | 224355 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"generally aggressive and arrogant little pricks when they think that they have the upper hand (managers), subservient and smiling when not (staff)."

hmm...sounds like americans (except for the smiling part for the most part) maybe it's not the fact that they're Chinese, but the fact that they're corporate drones?

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:13 | 223848 Hammer59
Hammer59's picture

Yawn....much ado about nothing. Linguistic saber-rattling...nothing more. They must sense that we will eventually default on our debt anyway.

Fuck China.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:15 | 223851 waterdog
waterdog's picture

Who in their right mind would buy any of our treasuries other than Bernanke? And he would have to print money to buy them, making them even more worthless. I thought they were trash. I thought the only reason why China kept buying the junk was so that their total junk pile would not go up in flames.

What are they going to do? Ask for USD from whomever the fool is that buys them for a discount of 75%?

 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:14 | 223853 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

We could make the first move - default on the debt owed to China so that they can't sell them. We could say that the mass selling of bonds is an act of war. It would be similar to how we took possession of German owned companies in the US during WWII.

And then we could re-issue those bonds and sell them to somebody else.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:21 | 224021 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

A bit more thought needed here about unintended consequences of such a unilateral move in a global macro-ecomony. There is always a simple answer, but it's most often wrong.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:52 | 224357 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

who's we?

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 14:29 | 225195 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Japan, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuawait and other creditor nations.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:17 | 223865 Invisible Hand
Invisible Hand's picture

Another reason to get the federal budget down a lot!

It won't matter if we have a strong military if the Chinese can destroy us by simply selling our debt.

Spending more than you earn puts you at the mercy of your banker.

Every year we are more in the ChiComs power and they are not our friends!

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:17 | 223866 wareco
wareco's picture

BAM!!!.  100% tariff on all of China's shit.  How many million Chinese factory workers now out of a job?  It works both ways assholes.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:26 | 223891 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

And the resultant empty shelves in mega stores across the country lead to massive riots

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:47 | 223938 economessed
economessed's picture

Right, because if I am denied my right to purchase inferior made goods that are often toxic for low prices, I'm going to bust someone's chops.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:18 | 224015 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

Virtually everything we wear and most of the games, gadgets and gizmos that we work or play with, including the monitor you're looking at right now was probably made, in whole or in part, in China.  Generally speaking, the quality of said games, gadgets, gizmos and clothes is at least equal to what it would have been had it been made in the USofA.

It is interesting, though, to think about who has the most to lose in a full on trade war.

 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:39 | 224067 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

No kidding? Dont tell me that the US has been used to buying its domestic peace by bribing its own population with made in China goods, I wont believe it.

If so, dont cut the supply. Streets could turn nasty in the US. Back in the 1920s, bit of ethnical cleansing was done here and there. Could happen whenever.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 23:14 | 224419 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

the fact is, even at 10% unemployment, all the people not working in this country could never produce all the crap we receive from China. We have lost out on a great opportunity. Instead of taking decent cheap labor and putting it to good use, we buy crap that ends up in our landfills while China buys airplanes and nuclear power technology from us.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:26 | 223892 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

And the resultant empty shelves in mega stores across the US lead to massive riots

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:03 | 223971 walküre
walküre's picture

Why? Because you can't replace your effen toaster made in China that breaks down after 12 months - guaranteed?

We don't need "made in China" to survive. They make nothing that we couldn't make ourselves. Their crap is made cheaper and our consumers have gotten spoiled to think they can afford everything all the time always.

The box stores are emptier by the day anyway.

 

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:31 | 224044 economessed
economessed's picture

<sliding slightly off topic> walkure,

I started paying attention to the country of origin about 2 years ago, and made the decision to never buy a chinese product when an alternative from another country (especially the US) was available.  It was hard at first, but is getting easier.  For example:  my wife wanted a hair dryer, so we went to three stores and looked at 25+ models/brands -- all made in china.  Had to go on-line to find one made in Mexico.  Could not find a single one made in the US.

And my personal grudge is with chinese made tools.  Without a doubt, chinese tools should be regulated/recalled across the board.  They are dangerous.  Cheap tools are the dirty needles of the working class.  The lowball price seems attractive, but the inevitable failure you'll experience will be costly.

It's time to put some of our own idle hands back to work.  We've manufactured enough debt wearing a white collar.  Time to change shirts and wear the blue one again.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 21:58 | 224363 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Time to change shirts and wear the blue one again."

agreed, and from my experience, no culture has a harder work ethic than the Chinese. much of the defects you describe (agreed that they are prevalent) are as much due to American corporate desire to reduce costs and neglect quality control.

i/o/w instead of blaming China, blame Chimerica, Inc.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 02:10 | 224602 Kayman
Kayman's picture

It is not just tools. It is bolts, nuts, bearings, car parts, steel components, fly paper, light bulbs, switches, light fixtures-- it goes on and on. And it is all SHIT !!!

PASS IT ON- whenever you are in a store- tell them you refuse to buy their MADE IN CHINA Shit.

Take back this country. FUCK CHINA and FUCK all their U.S. apologists and political backers.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:30 | 223903 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Only 2% of China's economy is export related. They have been shifting away from exports for a decade. Their production capacity is just to overwhelming that prices haven't gone up that much.

They don't need our little pieces of paper nearly as much as we need their "shit". China has it in their hands to completely destroy the American "economy". All they have to do is say one word: Sell.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:00 | 223956 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

so true, I think the China thing is just like all the other things americans are having such a hard time admitting to themselves: that were not #1, that we're totally broke, that everyone doesn't need us to survive, that we're totally corrupt, that we don't defend democracy here or abroad, and that our criminal, crumbling government is now our greatest challenge. We are true addicts and we have yet to master even the first stage of recovery.  

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:01 | 223965 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

And apparently just about the only way to wake folks up will be if China decides to pull the plug on us.  One way or another the political & financial segments of American society are gonna get put into the bitch position and Americans will get to rediscover what regaining control of our wallets from the purses of the Chinese is like.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:15 | 224005 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Weird: waiting for that communist dictatorship to save our capitalist democracy.   

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 20:59 | 225964 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Indeed.  That communist dictatorship is relying upon capitalism to survive while our so called capitalistic society is relying upon the strictures of the aforementioned communist dictatorship to survive.   Fate is indeed a creature of sick humor who I suspect will not so easily be corralled.

Innocence creates my hell. - Layne

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:26 | 224029 velobabe
velobabe's picture

++10

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 21:10 | 225980 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

The teaching of the trainable male continues apace since respect for lady liberty has become passe among those whom the fine lady standing atop our courthouses has been tendered over to the human traffickers. Is there any question that sooner or later the male in question may well learn how to piss in the corner, regardless whatever some pho pha has to say about it...

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:50 | 224085 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I hope China cuts us off. The only way to get back to a small Constitutional government is to make it spend within its means.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:09 | 223990 walküre
walküre's picture

"Only 2% of China's economy is export related."

BULL SHIT

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 19:48 | 224219 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'd prefer 32% export instead of 70% consumption, the USA has more to lose.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:17 | 223867 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

WW III commences...just in time for the HYPE!  Get your gold and silver while you can, ladies and gentlemen!  We are in for the ride of our lives.  Good bye Doelarr!  

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:28 | 223900 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Forget gold, buy canned hamz and creamed corn, arable land and seeds to plant next to your underground bunker.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:20 | 223871 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And don't forget, your Dollars status as reserve-currency may be on the line as well!

mfg. Werner

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:25 | 223887 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

China is all talk. zzzz

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:14 | 224003 Pedro
Pedro's picture

I agree.  Seems like there is always a chinese general dishing out threats that never amount to anything but a one-day news event.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:52 | 224086 seventree
seventree's picture

Or a banking official, or and academic, or whoever will comment on the danger of holding UST. None are inner-circle policy makers, but all get published in the state-controlled press which doesn't just happen. These are shots across our bow, but is there the will to follow through?

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 18:13 | 224118 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

copy, paste:

 

Everything that hits the press in China is propaganda aimed at placating their own people by vilainaizing the west. The high level diplomatic talks have a different tenor, as in, buy more shit our people are getting restless and need crappy jobs to keep them from revolting.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 14:35 | 225209 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Those chinese migrants have homes in the countryside unlike Americans who are having their homes foreclosed and being forced to live like serfs relegated to second world living standards.. The only delusional leaders are in america.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:25 | 223888 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

Way to go Obama. Was selling $6 Billion in arms really worth pissing off the Chinese?

This administration lacks common sense.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:27 | 223895 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

Grow a set!

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:58 | 223959 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

You must prefer to get an ear full.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:10 | 223994 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The US needs the USD to crash to be competitive and the US need to raise salaries and prices to a level that can service the debt.

What *better way* is there to reach those objectives than a brisk little trade war? Especially if "The Yellow Peril" started it, so you can be all "For Free Trade" while tariffing, subsidising and blockading all over??

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 19:59 | 224231 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

At least selling Taiwan those arms postpones the time when the PRC will feel ready to take over Taiwan.  When they finally do make their move, we'd probably "have" to move some carriers closer to the area, and that could put them in range of the new carrier-killer missile.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:32 | 223913 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

They missed their window - there will be other buyers now.

 

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 14:36 | 225212 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Ben???

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 14:36 | 225213 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Ben???

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:44 | 223928 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

The trade war arising from this is gonna hurt the world's sweatshop a lot more than it will hurt the US.  We can still buy shit from other SE asian countries and south America.  Those bitches are just piping up now while we're busy because of a couple hundred year old inferiority complex.  The problem is, it ain't a complex, the inferiority it still there.

People should encourage the small island of people that struggled for their sovereignty in the face of a 1.6 billion hungry mouths run by a bunch of propaganda queen douchebags.

 

Their cheap toys and plastic shit suck anyways. Vietnam > China in terms of inferior goods quality.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 14:39 | 225222 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

China's economy is only 18% exports to the US. The US is finished. If China sells their worthless US bonds once and for all the purchasing power of the dollar would collapse, the US would no longer be able to AFFORD imports from any other nation. The real hungry mouths will be those of the foreclosed serfs without jobs living in america.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:44 | 223929 seadragonconquerer
seadragonconquerer's picture

Or, the Chicoms could dump T-bills, dollars, and sell 6 billion worth of weapons to Iran. That's what I'm hoping for. The quicker our ZOG falls, the better for most of us.

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 02:33 | 224620 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That is why I read ZH so much now. I need to know that if I get take a trip to prison for the governments "War on plants" that they will suffer immeasurably more than they have done to millions of others.

I could care less if I suffer. I live to relish the sight of those in power and at every level of this government to experience pain immeasurable and when the average man sees it that he takes action and adds heaping measures of salt to the wound.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:46 | 223935 seventree
seventree's picture

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) plays no role in setting policy for China's foreign exchange holdings.

I hope someone has explained to the PLA just where their limits are, in regard to setting policy.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:46 | 223936 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Denninger is foaming at the mouth in his usual batshit crazy anti-China shpiel:

http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=127727

and

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1949-China-Flaps-Its-Jaws-Again.html

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 20:18 | 224248 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Denninger is so mid-2009.

Move on, many of us have.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:47 | 223939 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It wouldn't be that big a deal, they only have 789 billion in holdings. We were able to to do the TARP for 700 billion and stimulus for 700 billion, with rates so low we'll be able to easily swallow that supply with a marginal increase in rates. And if there were big move in prices it would probably actually be good, fed could just print some money and buy up bonds below par and then wait a little for things to settle down and issue the bonds again. make us some money, or at least I know i'd be taking the opposite side of that trade and i bet a lot of other people would as well

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 14:43 | 225231 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The Fed could directly devalue the dollar by that much and destroy the Treasury market as the last buyer of resort. This would lower imports from other creditor nations such as japan who would then face their own sovereign debts crisis and be forced to liquidate their fx reserves eventually. The fact of the matter is that there is no market US Treasury, foreigners are simply swapping out their toxic mortgage debt for slightly less toxic treasuries. By the way rates rising would signifying increasing default risk a la Greece, not the expectations of an economic recovery lol.

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:52 | 223943 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Good deal.  China stops selling worthless pieces of crap to us and America stops trading worthless pieces of paper for them.  The sooner China stops buying US government securities the sooner America will stop the sheer stupidity of living off of the payday check cashing machine scam and gets serious about being Americans.  Let the Chinese buy their own crap.  After all, China is a nation that prides itself on its unquestioning subservience to their political masters.  It's time America rediscovered the power that comes from being beholden to no one and the actions suggested by the PLA would assist us tremendously along that path.  Better yet, why doesn't China really send a message and sell them all!  No stones I am sure...... Money talks and BS walks.  Whatcha gonna do there Major General/Senior Colonel Generals?  Stand and sell or kowtow to your migrant workers, farmers and those that write their paychecks?

Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:04 | 223975 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

+1billion!!!!

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 01:18 | 224565 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

MK, sometimes I have to chew a little longer but the satisfaction is higher.

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