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September Budget Defcit Comes At ($34.5) Billion, Misses Expectation Of ($32) Billion

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The September budget deficit came at ($34.5) Billion, missing expectation of $32 billion, lower from September 2009 which was revised ($46.6) billion (which was revised worse as usual). Total September receipts were $245 billion, on $280 billion of outlays. Both numbers were an increase compared to 2009. Also, last month the US paid $18.2 billion in interest on its debt, of which an increasingly greater portion is now going to none other than the Federal Reserve which will soon be the biggest holder of USTs in the world.

Deficit monthly:

And revenues and outlays summary:

Full report.

 

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Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:05 | 653467 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I just got a MEGA tip.

Buy insurers that fell down because they had to pay up to the banks that where insured against foreclosures!!

They'll sue the banks and rise to the moon!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:12 | 653504 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

You just broke 10 or so laws and regulations. Nice. Dont trade on that info though, or else you might get, oh, 20 or so years behind bars. You are not Warren Buffett my friend. 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:30 | 653558 cossack55
cossack55's picture

"You just broke 10 or so laws and regulations."  That means SD is now elligible for public office.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:17 | 653656 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

could be disinformation psy-ops

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:07 | 653468 mikla
mikla's picture

No surprises here.  This deficit will increase going forward.

As a previous ZH article posits, treasury issuance will continue to run at 50% above the "claimed" deficit/budget.  And, rates will hold/rise, because they can no longer flatten.  The short-term roll is unprecedentedly large, and about to get larger.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:23 | 653542 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Do you have Sept. figures on the amount rolled?

Thanks.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:08 | 653629 mikla
mikla's picture

There are quite a few summaries googling "US debt rolled September", but many are to sites that sell services (not a bad thing, I just didn't want to pick/favour one to embed a link).

However, some of the salient points (not sure if it answers your question):

  • The US Treasury is at an inflection point of Roll Risk & Convexity
  • The US Treasury must issue $120B each week.
  • Debt issuance is growing 6-9% annually (IMHO, this is unnaturally low, because the Fed has been buying the long bond to flatten rates)
  • 40% of US Government debt has less than 4.5 years to mature, so that 40% alone is some $100B/month.  ("Official" debt is about $14.4T, in reality that's off by an order of magnitude)
  • Only $550B of US Treasuries have a maturity greater than 10 years (you should read that as, "Oh, Sh*t!")

So, I think the answer to your question is "about $100B rolled in September", but that's an average, and that number is artificially small.  The salient point is that it will *never again* be *less* than $100B/month, and it will actually be quite a bit more (by double- and triple-digit percentage increases).

In reality, the monthly issuance will be:

AMOUNT_ROLLED + DEFICIT_NEW + OFF_BOOKS_LIABILITIES_CASHFLOW_NEEDS

(>= $100B)   + (> 6%-8% growth) + (* 50%)

Take-home message:

We are in the middle of a parabolic blowout.  The scale is simply too big for small brains to see (e.g., elected officials and CNBC bobbleheads).

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:29 | 654249 Kali
Kali's picture

Starting to sound more and more like  payday loans or  auto title loans.  Kripes!  The plates are starting to wobble and it's a long way down the line to get them spinning.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:15 | 653470 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I wonder how much further down September's numbers will be adjusted.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:06 | 653472 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

A billion here, a billion there, before you know it we're talking about some real money.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:08 | 653486 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Jeebus.. you and I must have drank from the same coffee pot this morning. I read the HL and said quietly to myself. "What's a billion or 3 or 4 .. or 10. ". 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:09 | 653633 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Public perception priming and positioning.

Back when budgets were measured in millions, billions was big money.

Back when budgets were measured in billions, trillions was big money.

Now that budgets are measured in trillions, billions is a rounding error or a tip for the waitress.

This creep of the public perception is a deliberate part of psyops and propaganda and is utilized more often than we care to admit to move public opinion in a certain direction.

Think back to 2000 and tell me what the reaction would have been if the US population had been told that the military and secret service was water boarding people? Now tell me what the reaction would be if the public was told people were being water boarded.....again?

This is why trial balloons are used, to prime the public collective consciousness. It's so insidious and in such wide spread use not only by government but by corporate America that we just don't realize we've already arrived at the modern day version of 1984.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:08 | 653491 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Don't be so sure of that.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/3e/Zimbabwe_%24100_trillion_2...

Real money is measured in weights.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:18 | 653523 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I still remember the times (pre 2007) that a billion used to be quite a lot of money... I must be getting old...

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:02 | 653623 Blano
Blano's picture

You beat me to it sort of.  2 billion either way barely warrants attention any more.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:07 | 653479 Duuude
Duuude's picture

 

 

So what.

 

Ben makes more Pixeldust.

 

http://imgs.inkfrog.com/pix/posters/ERBELL_PIXIE_DUST_TINK20596.jpg

 

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:07 | 653482 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Well the good news is that the deficit came in at 9% less that last year (hahaha) bad news:second largest on record at $1.3T.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:43 | 653590 docj
docj's picture

Heh - good point.  So at this rate the budget will again balance in... (working calculator furiously)... well, sometime in the mid 2070's.

Awesome.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:08 | 653485 ratava
ratava's picture


FF Notes Source does not provide a reliable release time and the report can be delayed for several days - the event will be listed as 'Tentative' until the report is issued. Market impact tends to vary and is mostly dependent on which countries the report will accuse of currency manipulation; Why Traders
Care
It provides a detailed review of global exchange rate policies, economic conditions, and central bank and government actions around the world. Most importantly, the report outlines counties that the Treasury deems currency manipulators;

this made my day (forexfactory)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:15 | 653507 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Longest string of consecutive deficits now at 24 months...the records just keep on getting broken.

SNAP highest on record at 41.8 million

new weekly (NSA) UE claims +75,000...I think that might be a record...at least in the last 10 yrs.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:19 | 653528 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Tut, tut... paying interest on freshly printed money (or freshly inputted numbers on a 'puter screen) to a private company (FED) which is owned by a handful of rich families (Rockerfellas, Morgans, et al)...

... seriously, and people don't see this scam and react to it? There must be a serious amount of Aspartame in the blood stream of Americans to keep them this pacified while they are clearly being robbed blind harder and harder...

... same applies to any country with a private central bank.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:33 | 653565 hambone
hambone's picture

Yo FMB,

that's exactly what I'm flipping out about...not so much the piddling $18b but extrapolate out to a larger Fed balance sheet and do a mean reversion to the 50yr 10yr. T average of 7%...that my friends is the debt slavery crazy folks talk about, the yolk around our shoulders.  This is not like a 401k loan you take from yourself and pay yourself back principal / interest. 

This is a forced loan (debt) to be paid by taxpayers in interest only in perpetuity.  This is the stuff of revolutions.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:31 | 653563 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Now that FY2010 is history (except for paying for it) can we party like its 1999?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:54 | 653605 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

Hold. So we need money. We borrow it, print out the paper, use it to buy back out debt and pay ourselves the interest - an "excellent" idea... was used by USSR to pay for their increase in military expenditures in the late 80's.. result was the double digit inflation that speeds up the inevitable ... decrease in life style of an average Joe or government default or both. You chose. ...all hail the printer press.

One day this war will end.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:15 | 653648 hambone
hambone's picture

We allow Fed to create money effectively allowing the Fed to borrow from future taxpayers. check. 

Who do we pay the interest to?  The Fed.  Does this interest paid on this Trillion plus in T's come back onto the gov balance sheet as a credit?  How does this work for us to pay ourselves through a private company and for them to give it back to the gov?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:48 | 653756 SayTabserb
SayTabserb's picture

Notice that income receipts are essentially flat YOY at around $2.16 trillion (slight improvement over last year). Yet next year we see an estimate of a jump to $2.425 trillion. This is the way they keep the game going: "Wait till next year!" What is there on the horizon that suggests, at all, there would be such a quantum jump in receipts?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:43 | 654126 docj
docj's picture

Expiration of "The Bush Tax Cuts(tm)".

Because they assume people will just sit back and watch their taxes go up about $270B in one year and do absolutely nothing about it and so the tax manna will just roll on in.

Yeah, silly - right?  But there you have it.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:58 | 653780 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I remember when Trillion was only used when you wanted to rocket to the nearest star.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:36 | 653912 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

"To put $1 trillion into layman's terms: there is no way to put $1 trillion into layman's terms."  -- S. Colbert

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 20:53 | 654554 max2205
max2205's picture

I get it ponz, Fed buys T's, US pays Fed interest, Fed gives interest back via SIV. it's all good

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 04:49 | 656191 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

GOLD updated chart showing parabolic move.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Tue, 11/16/2010 - 10:19 | 730489 daniel
daniel's picture

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