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September Wholesale Inventories Accumulate Faster Than Expected, Grow By 1.5% On Expectations Of 0.7%, Suspicious Destocking Seen In Alcohol Products

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The old faithful GDP boosting trick of accumulating inventories continues to work. The Census Bureau announced that September wholesale inventories jumped by 1.5%, matching the largest monthly increase in over two years, and coming in decisively over estimates of 0.7%. Furthermore, the prior number was also revised much higher from 0.8% to 1.2%, confirming what we already knew: namely that Q3 GDP is merely based on yet another stocking, which will soon need to be liquidated as end demand persists at being subdued, further impacting FIFO margins (as for LIFO, forgetaboutit). The biggest jump in inventories was in farm products (14.8%) and misc. durable goods (3.0%), while destocking was seen in lumber, prof and comp equipment, and... alcohol. The last one is self-explanatory.

Full release link.

h/t PM

 

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Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:18 | 711684 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Chickens, bitchez!

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:18 | 711686 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

any mention of how gold and silver bars were flying off the shelf ?

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:19 | 711687 rapacious rachel wants to know (not verified)
rapacious rachel wants to know's picture

if you're not drinking yet, you're not paying attention

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:42 | 712007 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Helll yea, hickup. Got to get the parti started bitcheeeechzzz!! You go to forgetaboutit nevermind you, hickup. It's 12 oclock somewhere, down by the nice riverrr, hickup.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:27 | 711718 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Build it and they might come. If they don't, it's another post-holiday fire sale. Consumers have mostly figured it out by now.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:30 | 711734 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

" and... alcohol. The last one is self-explanatory."

Apparently, I'm not the only one stocking up!

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:33 | 711754 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

its also a goood fuel source

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:30 | 711739 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Destocking?  Not if you count my wine cellar.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:30 | 711740 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

It's always happy hour somewhere

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:32 | 711750 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I wonder if future caricatures of Americans will resemble those of Russia, with everyone drunk on cheap vodka (or whiskey/moonshine in our case).

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:41 | 711785 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im stocking lots of alcohol, pint bottles are best barter items I believe, far better than gold in a Mad Max economic model...cases for $150 or so right now. 

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:52 | 712054 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

but how do you keep from drinking it all before mad max economy?

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:41 | 711786 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

 Gold & Silver, Wine & Cheese I'm good for life.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:43 | 711787 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And the christmas season is crashing already nice.

Predicted by anyone with a brain.

Lots of people are gonna lose their job in January.

Just you watch, once the republicans come in, some truth is gonna be reported about the economy and it's gonna be blamed on republicans.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 11:46 | 711803 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

We are totallly out of the Scotch that my mother-in-law left us when she died in 2003.  Better get a jug while I still can.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:21 | 711934 espirit
espirit's picture

My respects. But just how much did she leave you?

Barrels? lol

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:01 | 711852 redpill
redpill's picture

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinkin...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmW-ScmGRMA

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:04 | 711864 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I'm stocking up on a full line of alcoholic products, purely for medicinal reasons. Liquors are the best, shelf life is really good.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:19 | 711925 Rainman
Rainman's picture

....speakin' of medicine, don't forget to stockpile the top shelf pharmaceutical grade weed. In CA, an oz. sells in the pot pharmacy for right around the price of an oz. of gold. Just sayin'. 

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:23 | 711938 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

 - the ultimate currency, eat it, smoke it or trade it.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:26 | 711954 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

Shit, is that expensive? Had no clue.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 13:13 | 712114 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I'm talking about the top end in quality and one-hit potency. No seeds in the buds to prevent bootlegging it. So pungent you need to keep it in tin foil wraps and store it in a safe to keep it from stinking up the house. The licensed farmers have really come a long way since the 60s. Of course, you can always get the skunk mota on the street for far less. Weed is not much different from alcohol pricing....you get what you pay for.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:58 | 712064 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

In Colorado at the Pot Pharm an oz of weed costs less than an 1lb of silver thanks to Benny Boy.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 14:06 | 712360 Spurfy
Spurfy's picture

In California, the price of an ounce of medical cannabis weed ranges from $250-$400. I don't know what you're smoking, but it's nothing from the Golden State...

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:05 | 711865 nopat
nopat's picture

I don't know how much this would contribute to alcohol destocking, but I know that wine wholesalers and distributors have been dumping the shit out of their stock.  If it isn't the "middle ground" of premium wines - those that are in the $30-$50 price point - getting absolutely slaughtered, it's the consolidations among distributors exiting portfolios.  Just to put some perspective on it all, we're now seeing the 2008 vintages come to market, putting it right at the same time as the correction.  Much of the talk now is if there's any more left out there, or was the last few months the the grand finale in a year of great wine buying.

What I don't know either is the seasonality.  We're at the start of both the drinking season and a big shipping season (heat perishability isn't an issue in the fall/winter).  It would kind of make sense that you'd see businesses clear out a lot of floor space.

Just idle bantor on my part, I'm not in the business or anything.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:31 | 711971 redpill
redpill's picture

and for god sakes don't forget the absinthe!

http://www.absinthemarteau.com/

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:44 | 712021 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

@Tyler: I believe the moment has arrived for the key to unlock said bottle???

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 12:56 | 712069 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Somebody tried to switch my Whisky with Kool Aide - Where's Timmah?

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 14:28 | 712482 QEsucks
QEsucks's picture

 This would explain why I almost swallowed my pen when I was going to

 prescribe Marinol and checked the price for a pt. I told him to buy

 from his nephew,instead.

Tue, 11/09/2010 - 15:18 | 712816 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Lumber,  no commodity is more under the thumb of the  federal government than lumber, any destocking is intentional policy, specifically to crush new housing and prop up existing housing, what's next a "new housing program" where millions of existing houses are intentionally destroyed?

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