• Steve H. Hanke
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    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Services ISM Beats Expectations While Drop In Employment Index Confirms ADP Beat Was An Aberration

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Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:44 | 849279 Salinger
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Rosie turns Bulllish (on Canada) LOL

 

The usually bearish David Rosenberg is unusually bullish — this time about Canada.

In his Tuesday note to clients, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates said the Canadian dollar’s recent surge beyond parity with its U.S. peer, and “unprecedented” discounts on Canadian government debt compared to U.S. Treasuries, is a clear sign investors believe Canada is a safer place to park their cash.

Even though there are legitimate concerns about the overstretched balance sheets Canadian households are carrying,  he said consumer debt levels are “completely serviceable” at the present time.

 

http://bit.ly/h89WuO

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:46 | 849281 goldmiddelfinger
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will this make gold go up?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:22 | 849395 HarryWanqer
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I wouldn't want to be long gold at this point.  Classic top.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:26 | 849412 SheepDog-One
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You wouldnt want to be long gold? Oh, well when did you sell your gold holdings youre always talking about? In the rear view mirror top Im sure....oh well Harry tell us when youve again went long on gold again, Im sure that will be after the next rip upwards.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:37 | 849449 tmosley
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HarryWanqer

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:41 | 849460 ColonelCooper
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Goddammit!  You can't even tell all these asshats apart anymore.  Funny though.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:48 | 849283 vote_libertaria...
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The guy from ADP was releasing the number on CNBC.  As soon as he gave the number he said it looked odd and gave 4 or 5 reasons why it may not be as high as it seems.

 

Some of his reasons included a 5 week period vs the usual 4 (with a late Black Friday), acctg changes(?), their EOY catch-up adjustments, etc..

 

 

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:54 | 849303 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

So they put All the adjustments for the whole year in 1 month report and got +200k jobs, cool can we get back to PM hoarding now ?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:13 | 849375 Dick Darlington
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lol! +1

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:55 | 849287 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Friday beckons, i say hold on to your hats, its going to be a hairy one. He is quick to point to the distortion of the ADP, but couldn't it be the ISM thats distorted?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:38 | 849456 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Might unicorns really exist?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:42 | 849464 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

...ask me on friday.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 18:37 | 850697 TheProphet
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Can't you just remember the question and answer it then?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:50 | 849290 Oracle of Kypseli
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They are still winning.

But for how long? Is everyone in the business and government blind?

Are they afraid that one negative utterance will collapse the economy? 

Fascism is on the way. 

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:09 | 849360 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Very pertinent observation OoK.

There is no bad news. it's only good, gooder and goodest from here on out.

Fascism is already here, it's just wearing a velvet glove right now.

As the saying goes, when the gloves come off....

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/05/stairwell-sigtar/

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 13:34 | 849651 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Or you can say the latex gloves come on.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 14:13 | 849818 ElvisDog
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Just curious, what is your definition of "Fascism"? That term is thrown about willy nilly, but probably 1% of people know what Fascism really means.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:41 | 850075 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

A political movement, or regime (as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, control and forcible suppression of opposition ©1997, 1996 Zane Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved.

By substitution:

financial regime(as that of the Fascisti) that exalts profits for the elite and the oligarchs above the individual(s) and that stands for a centralized autocratic financial planning government headed by a paid for neutered puppet leader, severe economic and social regimentation, control and forcible suppression of free market and true capitalism 

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 17:07 | 850323 andybev01
andybev01's picture

+1

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 19:15 | 850843 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

You missed the key connection - fascism, as it was originally envisioned by Mussolini is a union of the corporate and government worlds. The government runs the corporations and the corporations run the government. It features a strong central leader and discourages individuality.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:51 | 849295 Rodent Freikorps
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That's bad when the rich are hiring part time gardeners and maids as temps.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:51 | 849296 Kina
Kina's picture

"The decline in the employment index, however, suggests that the strong ADP employment number has considerable statistical distortion and should therefore be interpreted with care." 

 

Code for 'its complete bullshit manufactured to order' to suite today's kubuki dance.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:55 | 849302 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Wow...why so harsh?  Everyone makes mistakes...

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:53 | 849300 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Look at the effort to push the markets higher.  Every downward movement is pushed back to parity over and over.

I don't know how anybody with any education can't see that it's completely artificial.  I really don't.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:04 | 849336 Cognitive Dissonance
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The first thing to be blinded when in denial or QE X.x fueled euphoria is the critical eye. To those who want to believe, this is just more fuel for the denial steam engine.  For those who do believe, this is just confirmation. And for those who are on the fence, this is making them nervous.

It's all about belief and not about facts and fundamentals. But that old saying about living by the sword and dying by the sword eventually comes true. Can kicking is all this is.

Todd Harrison was saying back in 2008 that they sold the car crash and bought the cancer. Cancer can take a long time to kill. The powers-that-be are hoping they run out the asset transfer clock before the patient dies.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:59 | 849529 Boilermaker
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I get that; I really do.  But, at some point, it because truly preposterous.  Today's ADP number was only missing a breaking news bulletin with Baghdad Bob (with obligatory beret and gold braided shoulder cords) pronouncing a 'glorious' victory.

Honestly, this is getting absurd and reaching Soviet era bullshit.  I mean, I hope the wheat harvest is more bountiful this year than ever before.

How any objective person, even with bias, can accept this without eye rolling is beyond my comprehension.  Moreover, ADP should have never released it knowing that it's utter bullshit.  But, then again, a company that gets paid on how many paychecks they process (among other services, I'm sure) certainly has incentive to push the pollyanna 'rah-rah' bullshit also.

Bottom Line:  I still don't 'get it' completely.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 14:15 | 849828 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Bottom Line:  I still don't 'get it' completely.

I understand because I feel this way myself from time to time. But then (thankfully) I remember that my cognitive dissonance is hurting because I'm trying to make sense of insanity.

Which if I try too long simply means I'm becoming insane myself. :>)

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:54 | 849304 gorillaonyourback
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does any independent institution fact check adp, frb, or other economic indicators.  It would be nice to see that info.  Its kind of currious why the stock market isnt jumping all over the adp numbers or the car sales number.  any comments please

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:55 | 849306 HarryWanger
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I can't believe what I'm reading here! ADP number was a blowout, I don't care what you say. Are you blind?

ISM was strong as was yesterday's numbers. We've had nothing but great economic news. There's no way around that. 

Celebrate a strengthening economy rather than trying to find slivers of bad in fantastic news.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:59 | 849316 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

"Are you blind?"

Do we look like Moe Green?

The employment figures were UNCONFIRMED by ISM.

 

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:01 | 849323 EscapeKey
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Yes, Prices Paid going from 63.2 to 70.0 is strongly bullish.

So which side are you on - margin compression, which will lead to bankruptcies and hence job losses, or inflation in consumer prices?

Also, services hiring doesn't exactly agree with the ADP report. Care to comment?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:07 | 849357 Mrmojorisin515
Mrmojorisin515's picture

I will celebrate when we don't have 0% interest rates and mark to market is reinstated harry.  Why should you believe any numbers until those two things are allowed to return?  Harry you lack any principles, the economy is your god and i'm sure you'll find a warm place in hell

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:20 | 849374 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

HarryWanker and his imaginary consumer product company...LULZ. Hey Harry, as Chief Dan said...'If its so good, then YOU drink it'!
Go buy stocks Harry no one here is stoppin ya!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:29 | 849420 TruthInSunshine
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'Hairy Wang's Urinal Cake Company'

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 14:17 | 849833 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Now that had me laughing out loud and for a long time. :>)

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:20 | 849390 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

It's not about trying to find " slivers of bad in fantastic news. " It's about putting data in proper perspective . In and of itself the ADP figure was indeed a blowout . However , that spike should have been confirmed by the ISM Services Employment Index . It wasn't , and in fact there was a significant disparity . That casts doubt on the credibility of the ADP number .

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:39 | 849459 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Unicorns and lollypops are here again!

Best sell that gold Harry!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 14:09 | 849805 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

Why are people junking this?  Traders trade, the facts are changing... don't be so stubborn you people as to be blinded by your own views!!  And Wanger is right re gold ... classic double top.  And broken the big uptrend line.  Just be cautious you longs....

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:58 | 849308 goldmiddelfinger
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2. The employment index falls in December (by 2.2 points to 50.5). This decline contrasts sharply with today's upside surprise in the ADP employment report for December

 

Somebooby's got some 'splain' to do

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:57 | 849310 erik
erik's picture

the USD just regained its 50 day MA.  that is a huge caution for all commodities, including gold and silver.  dr. copper is also suggesting a pullback is imminent, as it has led the stock market by 1-2 weeks before pullbacks.

if the USD consolidates here above 80 for the next couple of days, then look out above, and look out below for commodities and stocks.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:00 | 849319 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Euro weakness is the driver, and I agree that there could be a larger pull back in metals.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:09 | 849364 erik
erik's picture

Ragnarok, i don't know that it is Euro weakness per se, as the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen are getting hammered too versus the USD.

I think what we are going to witness is the money in commodities based on fear of USD/Fed policy will come flooding out now that a jobs number came in very high. 

How much money was sitting in commodities as a safeguard against the USD and Fed policy?  Now that we get positive employment news, the rush for the exits will begin.  Case of too much bullishness on commodities, too much bearishness on USD.  it'll make for a strong correction over the next 1-2 months.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:16 | 849387 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Think commods should get ripped as deflation is masked by Chinese panic over industrial metal supplies.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:27 | 849414 erik
erik's picture

Is that a statement or question, goldmf?  Can you elaborate?

Also, you keep making reference to DeMark monthly setups.  Where are you getting that info?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:16 | 849381 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Euro turd lack of flotation causing USD turd to float a bit higher for the moment.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:24 | 849405 erik
erik's picture

I really don't think it is the Euro.  Spain bond spreads are tightening.  Of course, that is because the ECB has made it so and will probably continue to do so.  Other Euro bond spreads are either going sideways, or very mildly tightening.

This is the beginning of a potential USD short squeeze.  If the USD consolidates above 80 the next couple of days, then I expect buying will really ramp up over the next 1-2 months.

Stocks can potentially move higher near term on funds from US treasury sellers, thanks to the employment number beat, but even they will succumb when the USD takes off.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:31 | 849429 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

As long as its remembered the ONLY thing that matters now is the FED bankers 'assets' in trillions worth of stocks and bonds theyve been buying. Inflation or deflation is only in reference to inflation of their worthless MBS and UST purchases which theyll now fight to the death to defend. If Bernanke sees 'deflation' (that means the FEDs asset value is goin down) he'll do all he can to plunge the dollar...its all about devaluing the dollar. At some point this will lead to a world war, as history shows.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:54 | 849508 erik
erik's picture

Sheep, I agree the long term implications of all of this are dire.  The Fed will implode eventually.  I am speaking more in the 1-2 month range. 

I think FCX is a magnificent short if the USD consolidates above 80 the next couple of days.  Both it and copper led the Jan'10 and Apr'10 corrections.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:37 | 850070 Hugh_Jorgan
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BINGO!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:00 | 849314 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

i hear you harry BUT commodity prices down, employment up, cars sales up,  STOCK DOWN. make any sense?

 

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