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Services ISM Misses Consensus Of 53.7, Prints At 53.3, Down From 54.6

Tyler Durden's picture


As expected, last week's manufacturing ISM was a contrived, one time surge. June's Services ISM just printed at 53.3, down from 54.6 in May, and missing expectations of 53.7. As a reminder for the US, which is a 70% service economy, this number is far more indicative of the true direction of the economy. Among the components, there was a decline in the New Orders, Prices, Backlogs, Imports and, huh, Inventories? Yes, the same inventories that accounted for 66% of the Manufacturing ISM surge are dropping here. Of the 17 non-manufacturing industries reporting all reported growth, except for the all too critical Financial & Insurance and the completely irrelevant Health Care & Social Assistance. Oh yes, all commodities except for diesel and gasoline were reported up in price. And now that WTI is almost back to $100, that's about to end shortly. Some deflation. And now, talk of a triple dip recession may resume.

From the respondents:

  • "Business is still up, although some softening seen over last month." (Wholesale Trade)
  • "Orders are remaining steady, and outlook for this year is positive." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • "Economic activity continues to be sluggish." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • "Have yet to see a real spark that ignites new and invigorated
    business — still seems lethargic and mired in recession-related
    preventative moves, and no one sees a real improvement ahead." (Public
  • "Commodities coming down in price, which should help stabilize inflation." (Retail Trade)
Commodities Up in Price

Airfares (7); Can Liners (3); Cheese; Chemicals (2); Copy Paper;
Cotton Products (10); #1 Diesel Fuel* (9); #2 Diesel Fuel* (12); Food
& Beverage; Food Products (2); Fuel (18); Fuel Surcharges (6);
Gasoline* (9); Gloves; Latex Gloves (6); Paper (8); Petroleum Products
(6); Plastic Products (4); Plastics (3); and Polyethylene Film.

Commodities Down in Price

Cotton; #1 Diesel Fuel*; #2 Diesel Fuel*; and Gasoline*.

Commodities in Short Supply

Fiber Optic Products; Medical Supplies; Plastic Products; Plenum Cable; and Tires.


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Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:09 | 1429468 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Otool will revise it next week.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:20 | 1429515 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Cynic!  These are not revisions!  They are TRANSFERS.  What's being called "downward revisions" in PMIs are transferred to Initial Jobless Claims as "upward revisions."

It's a zero sum game.  No harm done.  Move along.


Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:29 | 1429551 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 What? Numbers are printed and revised every week , num nuts. You should step under the porch!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 11:55 | 1429913 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

To quote my master, Charlie Brown, "don't you know sarcasm when you hear it?"

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:10 | 1429473 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture


Wed, 07/06/2011 - 13:27 | 1430246 willmont
willmont's picture

+ 53.3

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:11 | 1429476 Atomizer
Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:11 | 1429477 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

I'm good long as I can afford cheese.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:14 | 1429484 4shzl
4shzl's picture

So everyone following Goldscum's advice to short the 5-yr. @ 1.70% is now well and truly fucked.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:19 | 1429508 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm sure you are adept. Watch 10's.  Your 3's 5's and 7's are good, but watch 10's for the ( XLF) side of it.    YEN

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:28 | 1429548 4shzl
4shzl's picture

A quarter point move in a massively leveraged instrument like the carry-traded 5-yr. translates into 9.0 on your P/L Richter scale.  I'm expecting some hedgehogs to go tits up as a result of recent volatility in the middle of the curve.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:41 | 1429595 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Noted. Thanks for the insight.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:26 | 1429542 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Not surprised.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:14 | 1429485 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yeah.......but it was such a little miss. And the markets are cheap here. And interest rates are low. And........

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:16 | 1429495 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

you sound like robo...... haha........ or the long lost Hamy!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:27 | 1429541 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'm auditioning to be a guest host on CNBC so I can goose Becky during commercials. Or Joe.....if that floats his boat. I'm an equal opportunity corporate whore. 

Did I get the tempo right or do I need to speed it up a bit? People who talk fast are perceived to be smarter than a brick shit-house.

What about my teeth? Are they white enough? People with white teeth are very believable.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:50 | 1429631 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Becky looks like she has been goosed one two many times....Joe will probably appreciate it more.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 11:06 | 1429684 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Is that info about Joe from a reliable source? I mean, is it tradeable? :)

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:17 | 1429507 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

... you're not buying it? Well then it's transitory.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:21 | 1429522 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Well, in that case put me down for a thousand of each. You pick the mix, but make sure there's some Chinese takeout in there. And don't forget those resurgent auto stocks.

Can ya bill me?

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:18 | 1429513 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just a wee miss, as Algo-bots examine and weigh headlines with an electron microscope and Rome burns to the ground.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:24 | 1429530 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

It was not a collossal miss, but a sign of a possible future downtrend.  But BB will put some whip cream on the coming triple dip fudgesicle.  Let the Tepper rally continue until we all drop dead!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:41 | 1429599 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

... and house prices have never gone down... and the US has never defaulted on her obligations... and QE2 fulfilled its objectives succesfully... and Lloyd Blankfein is doing God's work.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 11:02 | 1429672 unununium
unununium's picture

... and the US has 8000 tonnes of gold... and building 7 just fell down... and we need a bailout plan for Fannie and Freddy only so we will never have to use it.. and the subprime problem is contained... and fuku is not a meltdown

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:15 | 1429490 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

All that matters is the $17 tril in debt, ss & medicare underfunding and wtf we are going to do about it. All the rest is for day traders.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:20 | 1429516 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And 95% of daytraders lose. Have at it, lunatics.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:24 | 1429531 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I have a 599gto. Carefull where you supplant ideas!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:25 | 1429534 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Doesnt everyone on the internet have at least one Ferrari?

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:42 | 1429602 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

just1 I like zo6's

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:22 | 1429523 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 14.3 T but you are correct in that 'Realistic"  way! That number is staggering!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:36 | 1429577 Boston
Boston's picture

Add Frannie? 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:43 | 1429608 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 What happened to that load of Snake oil?  The financial sector reflects that.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:16 | 1429493 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Some hopium still left in the CIs:

"Orders are remaining steady, and outlook for this year is positive." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:17 | 1429505 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Orders remaining steady' at record low levels. Same could be said about the Titanic.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:30 | 1429552 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Gas Masks, a real growth industry.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:16 | 1429497 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ponzi implosion looms larger, and I picked a bad day to quit sniffin glue.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:22 | 1429524 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Nah.  This minor miss is noise relative to what's trying to escape Portugal and Greece.  But for those two euro swamp-donkeys, I think SPY would be tanking and PMs would be pushing 2-3% gains.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:44 | 1429613 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, Greece and Portugal flea-sized problems compared to USA's elephant debt problem. Actually total bankruptcy with no one lending any longer, and the hunt for another couple trillion to keep running a bit longer heats up. I'll stick to piling up oz PM coins, much to the great annoyance of central bankster criminals everywhere.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:18 | 1429510 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

What is the short interest on the SPY at this point?  If low, expect a sell-off...

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:20 | 1429518 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

If ZH publishes its prognosis for next earnings season, expect it to highlight the impact to margins from commodities inflation. 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:22 | 1429525 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Last week's pump was to build cushion to allow the Debt Ceiling Fix Pump and/or good earnings to pick up the baton..... to get us to Jackson Hole.

TPTB are running out of tricks.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:26 | 1429543 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 As mentioned. the eur/gbp trade was broken down. The crosses are being broken down as we speak.  Catching Cable yesterday was entertaining.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:26 | 1429544 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Earnings will be pumped by the MSM till shorts are blue in the face.  Margin impact of inflation and any bad future guidance will be ignored by the bright spotlight on the headline figure (when it is a beat, misses will be left for ZH to report). 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:31 | 1429558 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The point to every pump and dump is never the pump, nor to just pump endlessly, the cheddar is made on the dump.

Dont be one of these rubes who have been convinced it just gets pumped endlessly, as the central banksters want you to be sitting fat dumb and brain flatlined convinced your 401K and stocks are riding the endless perfect wave, the shorebreak on the rocks is a motherfuker.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 12:19 | 1429999 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

That's right Slaughterer and that's why I got schooled and stopped thinking like a 'classical short' in 2009.

It is difficult for a hard-wired pessimist like myself to stay his hand in these conditions; but stay it you must.

Deflation and a long-overdue flush of the system is the natural healing mechanism in the long run but due to the nefarious manipulation of every conceivable electronic market in all four corners of the globe, we will not get that.

Inflation appears to work; like a $1.99 Happy Meal, the roiling unwashed get to feel full & content for a while.  Never mind the consequences.  And in the meantime, the banks continue to prop the value of their assets and the incumbents stay in office.  What's not to like?

We will inflate indefinitely and the games will continue.  The gorilla will be ignored, misnamed, not admitted.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:27 | 1429546 snowball777
Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:29 | 1429550 kito
kito's picture

Not enough of a downturn to usher in the latest greatest qe...

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:38 | 1429571 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What downturn? I see markets higher than ever adjusted for inflation and present depression economy, 100 P/E's all over the place...the Greatest Bubble in all history. 

There wil be no QE, much to all market junkie degenerate gamblers shock and dismay, but theyre more than happy to let you keep thinking Bernank is just over the horizon riding in on his white horse with free Hefty bags full of free market crack, nevermind hes told you otherwise. Good luck in the fantasy world, 'traders'.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:53 | 1429637 fuu
fuu's picture

"I see markets higher than ever adjusted for inflation"


We must be looking at different markets.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 11:06 | 1429669 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey well you can keep thinking markets are cheap in Depression America with 100 P/E bubble stocks. Fine with me.

Lets just see them raise rates 2%, still FAR lower than historical average, remove all the Quantitative Easing from the last 2 years, turn off the algo-bots, fire Sack and the PPT, and then lets see where would your charts be?

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 14:40 | 1430485 fuu
fuu's picture

"Lets just see them raise rates 2%, still FAR lower than historical average, remove all the Quantitative Easing from the last 2 years, turn off the algo-bots, fire Sack and the PPT,"


That is the market at this point. Even after all of that they cannot get valuations to peak over the 2000 highs.


Be that as it may your comment that markets are higher than ever was not accurate. Adjusted for inflation valuations are still 30% off the peak. Not saying it's a buy.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 11:04 | 1429676 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  You make sense! These valuations are just "Smoke and Mirrors"...

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 17:04 | 1430894 fuu
fuu's picture

Finally I made sense to you!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:30 | 1429555 madbomber
madbomber's picture

lol you guys arent sounding very optimistic..

50 States in the USA  is what Pac must be talking about.

Don't let so called Satan ruin your day.   (hes gay)


this aint your war.     I love the people on this site.





Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:35 | 1429578 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

ni hao bitches

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:36 | 1429580 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Tyler, ISM not important today. All the media talks about is the Anthony case on all channels. Europe not important today. Lets get our priorities straight please. I mean, I pay a lot of money for this site.

lol, beyond comprehension. We are truly screwed.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:39 | 1429591 Boston
Boston's picture

Meanwhile, the Portuguese 10 year keeps on going and going....

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:44 | 1429611 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Any word on that Iceland volcano? 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:45 | 1429612 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

"Financial & Insurance" and "Health Care & Social Assistance"

are the "broken window" components of the economy.

All we need is the accident and injury rate to increase so that we can add to GDP.


Wed, 07/06/2011 - 11:11 | 1429706 SP666_OnTheWay
SP666_OnTheWay's picture

All numbers are fantasy so criminals can goose the markets before the biggest one of the all...

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 11:19 | 1429742 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Reminds me of the endless "double dip" talk of last summer.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 11:23 | 1429765 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

I have lurked on this site for sometime now and received much insight and great laughs. However when do you change your view that doom and gloom is upon us and accept that your economic views may need to be tweaked? This latest report is an excellent example. Despite it's negative tone and appearence it seems to make very little impact on the psyche of investors.

I'm all for doom and gloom like the next guy but something has to give. If not the markets then perhaps our way of viewing the markets because they obviously don't jive with eachother.



Wed, 07/06/2011 - 11:32 | 1429801 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

still-stagnant econom + inflation = stagflation

stagflation + blossoming becquerels = BiChFlation

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 12:30 | 1430065 OptionsHedge
OptionsHedge's picture

the bears hang their hats on the pegs of "double dip", "manipulated data", "doomed Greece", "PIIGS", ad nauseam. And one day they maybe right. But that's still worse than a stopped clock.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 12:49 | 1430126 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

and on this cheery news, Dow on yet another moon-shot, and we haven't even hit the 2:30 goose-hour........ fuckin' uncanny, these guys

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