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Services ISM Misses Consensus Of 53.7, Prints At 53.3, Down From 54.6
As expected, last week's manufacturing ISM was a contrived, one time surge. June's Services ISM just printed at 53.3, down from 54.6 in May, and missing expectations of 53.7. As a reminder for the US, which is a 70% service economy, this number is far more indicative of the true direction of the economy. Among the components, there was a decline in the New Orders, Prices, Backlogs, Imports and, huh, Inventories? Yes, the same inventories that accounted for 66% of the Manufacturing ISM surge are dropping here. Of the 17 non-manufacturing industries reporting all reported growth, except for the all too critical Financial & Insurance and the completely irrelevant Health Care & Social Assistance. Oh yes, all commodities except for diesel and gasoline were reported up in price. And now that WTI is almost back to $100, that's about to end shortly. Some deflation. And now, talk of a triple dip recession may resume.
From the respondents:
- "Business is still up, although some softening seen over last month." (Wholesale Trade)
- "Orders are remaining steady, and outlook for this year is positive." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- "Economic activity continues to be sluggish." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
- "Have yet to see a real spark that ignites new and invigorated
business — still seems lethargic and mired in recession-related
preventative moves, and no one sees a real improvement ahead." (Public
Administration) - "Commodities coming down in price, which should help stabilize inflation." (Retail Trade)
Commodities Up in Price
Airfares (7); Can Liners (3); Cheese; Chemicals (2); Copy Paper;
Cotton Products (10); #1 Diesel Fuel* (9); #2 Diesel Fuel* (12); Food
& Beverage; Food Products (2); Fuel (18); Fuel Surcharges (6);
Gasoline* (9); Gloves; Latex Gloves (6); Paper (8); Petroleum Products
(6); Plastic Products (4); Plastics (3); and Polyethylene Film.
Commodities Down in Price
Cotton; #1 Diesel Fuel*; #2 Diesel Fuel*; and Gasoline*.
Commodities in Short Supply
Fiber Optic Products; Medical Supplies; Plastic Products; Plenum Cable; and Tires.
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Otool will revise it next week.
Cynic! These are not revisions! They are TRANSFERS. What's being called "downward revisions" in PMIs are transferred to Initial Jobless Claims as "upward revisions."
It's a zero sum game. No harm done. Move along.
:D
What? Numbers are printed and revised every week , num nuts. You should step under the porch!
To quote my master, Charlie Brown, "don't you know sarcasm when you hear it?"
jISM
+ 53.3
LaGarde will fix everything.
http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.asp?eventID=2258&redirect=false
I'm good long as I can afford cheese.
So everyone following Goldscum's advice to short the 5-yr. @ 1.70% is now well and truly fucked.
I'm sure you are adept. Watch 10's. Your 3's 5's and 7's are good, but watch 10's for the ( XLF) side of it. YEN
A quarter point move in a massively leveraged instrument like the carry-traded 5-yr. translates into 9.0 on your P/L Richter scale. I'm expecting some hedgehogs to go tits up as a result of recent volatility in the middle of the curve.
Noted. Thanks for the insight.
Not surprised.
Yeah.......but it was such a little miss. And the markets are cheap here. And interest rates are low. And........
you sound like robo...... haha........ or the long lost Hamy!
I'm auditioning to be a guest host on CNBC so I can goose Becky during commercials. Or Joe.....if that floats his boat. I'm an equal opportunity corporate whore.
Did I get the tempo right or do I need to speed it up a bit? People who talk fast are perceived to be smarter than a brick shit-house.
What about my teeth? Are they white enough? People with white teeth are very believable.
Becky looks like she has been goosed one two many times....Joe will probably appreciate it more.
Is that info about Joe from a reliable source? I mean, is it tradeable? :)
... you're not buying it? Well then it's transitory.
Well, in that case put me down for a thousand of each. You pick the mix, but make sure there's some Chinese takeout in there. And don't forget those resurgent auto stocks.
Can ya bill me?
Just a wee miss, as Algo-bots examine and weigh headlines with an electron microscope and Rome burns to the ground.
It was not a collossal miss, but a sign of a possible future downtrend. But BB will put some whip cream on the coming triple dip fudgesicle. Let the Tepper rally continue until we all drop dead!
... and house prices have never gone down... and the US has never defaulted on her obligations... and QE2 fulfilled its objectives succesfully... and Lloyd Blankfein is doing God's work.
... and the US has 8000 tonnes of gold... and building 7 just fell down... and we need a bailout plan for Fannie and Freddy only so we will never have to use it.. and the subprime problem is contained... and fuku is not a meltdown
All that matters is the $17 tril in debt, ss & medicare underfunding and wtf we are going to do about it. All the rest is for day traders.
And 95% of daytraders lose. Have at it, lunatics.
I have a 599gto. Carefull where you supplant ideas!
Doesnt everyone on the internet have at least one Ferrari?
just1 I like zo6's
14.3 T but you are correct in that 'Realistic" way! That number is staggering!
Add Frannie?
What happened to that load of Snake oil? The financial sector reflects that.
Some hopium still left in the CIs:
"Orders are remaining steady, and outlook for this year is positive." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
'Orders remaining steady' at record low levels. Same could be said about the Titanic.
Gas Masks, a real growth industry.
Ponzi implosion looms larger, and I picked a bad day to quit sniffin glue.
Nah. This minor miss is noise relative to what's trying to escape Portugal and Greece. But for those two euro swamp-donkeys, I think SPY would be tanking and PMs would be pushing 2-3% gains.
LOL, Greece and Portugal flea-sized problems compared to USA's elephant debt problem. Actually total bankruptcy with no one lending any longer, and the hunt for another couple trillion to keep running a bit longer heats up. I'll stick to piling up oz PM coins, much to the great annoyance of central bankster criminals everywhere.
What is the short interest on the SPY at this point? If low, expect a sell-off...
If ZH publishes its prognosis for next earnings season, expect it to highlight the impact to margins from commodities inflation.
Last week's pump was to build cushion to allow the Debt Ceiling Fix Pump and/or good earnings to pick up the baton..... to get us to Jackson Hole.
TPTB are running out of tricks.
As mentioned. the eur/gbp trade was broken down. The crosses are being broken down as we speak. Catching Cable yesterday was entertaining.
Earnings will be pumped by the MSM till shorts are blue in the face. Margin impact of inflation and any bad future guidance will be ignored by the bright spotlight on the headline figure (when it is a beat, misses will be left for ZH to report).
The point to every pump and dump is never the pump, nor to just pump endlessly, the cheddar is made on the dump.
Dont be one of these rubes who have been convinced it just gets pumped endlessly, as the central banksters want you to be sitting fat dumb and brain flatlined convinced your 401K and stocks are riding the endless perfect wave, the shorebreak on the rocks is a motherfuker.
That's right Slaughterer and that's why I got schooled and stopped thinking like a 'classical short' in 2009.
It is difficult for a hard-wired pessimist like myself to stay his hand in these conditions; but stay it you must.
Deflation and a long-overdue flush of the system is the natural healing mechanism in the long run but due to the nefarious manipulation of every conceivable electronic market in all four corners of the globe, we will not get that.
Inflation appears to work; like a $1.99 Happy Meal, the roiling unwashed get to feel full & content for a while. Never mind the consequences. And in the meantime, the banks continue to prop the value of their assets and the incumbents stay in office. What's not to like?
We will inflate indefinitely and the games will continue. The gorilla will be ignored, misnamed, not admitted.
Have another dip...
Not enough of a downturn to usher in the latest greatest qe...
What downturn? I see markets higher than ever adjusted for inflation and present depression economy, 100 P/E's all over the place...the Greatest Bubble in all history.
There wil be no QE, much to all market junkie degenerate gamblers shock and dismay, but theyre more than happy to let you keep thinking Bernank is just over the horizon riding in on his white horse with free Hefty bags full of free market crack, nevermind hes told you otherwise. Good luck in the fantasy world, 'traders'.
"I see markets higher than ever adjusted for inflation"
We must be looking at different markets. http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Real-Mega-Bears.php
Hey well you can keep thinking markets are cheap in Depression America with 100 P/E bubble stocks. Fine with me.
Lets just see them raise rates 2%, still FAR lower than historical average, remove all the Quantitative Easing from the last 2 years, turn off the algo-bots, fire Sack and the PPT, and then lets see where would your charts be?
"Lets just see them raise rates 2%, still FAR lower than historical average, remove all the Quantitative Easing from the last 2 years, turn off the algo-bots, fire Sack and the PPT,"
That is the market at this point. Even after all of that they cannot get valuations to peak over the 2000 highs.
Be that as it may your comment that markets are higher than ever was not accurate. Adjusted for inflation valuations are still 30% off the peak. Not saying it's a buy.
You make sense! These valuations are just "Smoke and Mirrors"...
Finally I made sense to you!
lol you guys arent sounding very optimistic..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfhVbEaMQEg&feature=related
50 States in the USA is what Pac must be talking about.
Don't let so called Satan ruin your day. (hes gay)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=padvnsLUhUM&feature=related
this aint your war. I love the people on this site.
ni hao bitches
Tyler, ISM not important today. All the media talks about is the Anthony case on all channels. Europe not important today. Lets get our priorities straight please. I mean, I pay a lot of money for this site.
lol, beyond comprehension. We are truly screwed.
Meanwhile, the Portuguese 10 year keeps on going and going....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPT10YR:IND
Any word on that Iceland volcano?
"Financial & Insurance" and "Health Care & Social Assistance"
are the "broken window" components of the economy.
All we need is the accident and injury rate to increase so that we can add to GDP.
Feh.
All numbers are fantasy so criminals can goose the markets before the biggest one of the all...
http://eleninandbankers.webs.com
Reminds me of the endless "double dip" talk of last summer.
I have lurked on this site for sometime now and received much insight and great laughs. However when do you change your view that doom and gloom is upon us and accept that your economic views may need to be tweaked? This latest report is an excellent example. Despite it's negative tone and appearence it seems to make very little impact on the psyche of investors.
I'm all for doom and gloom like the next guy but something has to give. If not the markets then perhaps our way of viewing the markets because they obviously don't jive with eachother.
still-stagnant econom + inflation = stagflation
stagflation + blossoming becquerels = BiChFlation
the bears hang their hats on the pegs of "double dip", "manipulated data", "doomed Greece", "PIIGS", ad nauseam. And one day they maybe right. But that's still worse than a stopped clock.
and on this cheery news, Dow on yet another moon-shot, and we haven't even hit the 2:30 goose-hour........ fuckin' uncanny, these guys