ShadowStats' John Williams Explains Why It's All Been Downhill Since 1973

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Chris Martenson

ShadowStats' John Williams Explains Why It's All Been Downhill Since 1973

"If you look at the government’s latest statistics - the poverty survey of 2009, which is the most recent release, with average and median household income adjusted for inflation (and they use a really gimmick low inflation rate with that one) - it shows that not only has household income been falling the last year or two, but it’s below its near-term peak before the 2001 recession. Household income has not recovered above that, and if you use the CPI-U (the usual inflation rate to deflate that by instead of the gimmick one) it shows that household income today is below where it was in 1973. Again, the average household has not been able to keep up here. If income growth is not keeping ahead of inflation, very simply you can’t have consumption growing faster than inflation on a sustainable basis."

Government statistics guru John Williams believes the most important economic indicators used by our political leaders in their decison-making - the Consumer Price Index, the unemployment rate, the Gross Domestic Product - are deeply flawed in how they're calculated. Whether these flaws result from letting theory trump reality or by machinating politicians, the result is the same: we are fooling ourselves at our peril. We have been understating the risks we face - which is why we are working harder for less today than the previous generation, and why our economy is not only not in "recovery" - but on the precipice of crisis.

Click here to listen to Chris' interview with John Williams (runtime 37m:40s)


Read the Transcript of the Podcast
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In this podcast, John and Chris outline how: 

  • John came to understand how changes in the way the key economic indicators are calculated has resulted in an outcome in which they no longer reflect reality. No one believes, values or knows how to accurately apply them anymore.  
  • There is rampant precedent for political manipulation of how these indicators are calculated. Past administrations forced changes in the forumlae for many reasons - a common one being optics.
  • Using erroneous indicators is dangerous - not just for the governement, but for everyone. When inflation is running higher than most expect (as it is today), investors are cheated out their returns, wage earners wonder why their paychecks buy less goods, and fixed income earners suffer greatly. Unfortunately, there are myraid incentives for politicians and corporations to embrace artificially-low calculations - as they justify reducing obligations owed.
  • The key approaches to calcualting inflation are especially convoluted, especially the practice of applying hedonics. If we instead calculate inflation according the formula used in 1980, we would see a number closer to 8%+ vs today's 1.5% rate.
  • Similarly with unemployment, John calcualtes the true rate in the country today is 22% (vs the reported 9%).
  • In sum, he sees the US suffering from structural issues that are extremely hard to address - but impossible if we continue to let fantasy data be our guide. Our circumstances are not sustainable and, in his eyes, have us on an inexorable path to higher inflation - and likely hyperinflation.

Part 2 of this interview is available to enrolled users and focuses on the main drivers behind John's inflationary predictions, how he sees events unfolding & on what timeline, and what individuals can do today to protect themselves from such an outcome. If you are not an enrolled member, enroll today to access Part 2.

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I encourage everyone to listen to this. I did during my drive in to my office after loading it into my new iPhone 4 (h/t to WB7 for infecting me with the iVirus). Well worth the two car accidents I had along the way. :>)

Spastica Rex's picture

You should get an iPad for your car. There's a special mount available that secures it to your steering wheel so you can use it whilst driving:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdAkKKxOvu4

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

WB7 has been trying to get me to purchase the iGag, but so far I've been able to resist.

However, the iGag2 is on the way. With two cameras I could film myself and everyone else at the same time. The narcissist in me loves that idea. :>)

DaveyJones's picture

if you have multiple personalities, can you be a narcissist? Group sex, I guess.

A Texan's picture

I'm going to get my wife an iRon.  Let's see if I can avoid a trip to the hospital.  :>)

Sudden Debt's picture

I think it's more safe to put it on the passenger seat and look to it 5 seconds, back 2 seconds to the road, 5 seconds to the Ipad and so on. And the 2 seconds you use to look to the road you can also use to check the GPS and the ladies you pass by.

 

 

Atomizer's picture

Just duct tape it to windshield, problem solved.

Spastica Rex's picture

Pro Tip:

Aimless keyboard banging can cause lasting finger injury.

hbjork1's picture

S.R.,

I beg to differ.  I have been aimlessly banging keyboards for a lifetime and other that some carpel tunnel in the wrists, and a few patent office postings, so far no effects.

Dr_Dazed's picture

I tried aimless keyboard banging and all I got was a brused Di*k.

Hulk's picture

Please, please, please, quit wasting letters of the alphabet...

outamyeffinway's picture

Math man, every post I read from you, up to this point, has led me to believe that you are just a dumb ass. Trollfuk.

 

And it's pathetic how you junk people who respond to you. Lame.

tmosley's picture

Sorry, you have no credibility.  You have been told this numerous times, but you keep flapping your gums.

outamyeffinway's picture

Wait for him to junk you. Wait for it, wait.....wait.....wait.......!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7ur3iV6Z34

 

DaveyJones's picture

We pay dearly for government statistics.

And you're right, they never hide or twist information 

  

curbyourrisk's picture

Can you say Federal Reserve Employee???

akak's picture

You know, there has been something about the egregiously illogical, irrational, hate-filled anti-precious metals rants of MathMan that kept striking me as somehow familar.  The focus on minor and potentially PM-negative factors while ignoring the ongoing numerous, massively pro-PM factors, the denial of gold and silver's decade-long price run, the denial of inflation and its obvious connection to the rampant money creation by the US Federal Reserve, the fervent defense of fiat currency, and everything status-quo in general, the smug arrogance overlying it all .... now it all fits.

"MathMan" is in fact our dear friend, the arrogant bankster shilling, hysterically anti-gold propagandizing, so-called "Senior Analyst" and official Kitco spokesman, Jon Nadler.

 

chubbar's picture

He told you how he calculates his numbers, using the methodology the gov't used in 1980.

Google "boskin commission" and read anyone of the several critiques written about their "findings". 

Here is a sample

"

“The debate about the CPI was really a political debate about how, and by how much, to cut real entitlements.”

-Greg Mankiw, chairman of George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2001-2003

>

I’ve been meaning to get to the absurd argument put forth last week by Michael J. Boskin in the WSJ, titled “Don’t Like the Numbers? Change ‘Em.”

Fred Sheehan saved me the trouble with a brutal takedown of Boskin here.

For those of you who may be unaware, Boskin is the economist/weasel/fraud who helped to officially distort the CPI, making it more or less worthless as a measure of inflation. The Boskin Commission was an act of fraud, a backdoor method to suppress Social Security cost of living adjustments (COLAs). To be blunt, it was an act of cowardice. Rather than man up and say “fix this, its broken, we can’t afford it” the commission took a different route — they fabricated a series of nonsense adjustments  that artificially lowered CPI by 1.1%.

The Boskin Commission’s massive government falsehood allowed former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan to take rates to absurdly low levels, as the official CPI data showed no inflation, despite double digit price increases.

As such, he is one of the contributors to the financial collapse.

The specific fraudulent methods of the Boskin Commission are laughable. That the Economics profession failed to kick him out of its membership is as much an indictment of the profession as it is about Boskin.

My two favorite pieces of Boskin intellectual fraud are substitution and hedonic adjustments.

Hedonic adjustments are addressing the improvement in quality as a form of deflation. For example, the price of a new car in the U.S. had risen from $6,847 in 1979 to $27,940 in 2004. Using hedonic adjustments, the government calculated the price of a new car had risen from $6,847 in 1979 to $11,708 in 2004.

These adjustments wildly distort not only CPI data but GDP as well. Bill Fleckenstein calculated that the hedonic adjustments of faster computer chips and dropping costs massively jacked up the productivity data and GDP data from 1995-2002.

Substitution is a nonsensical approach that adjusts inflation for consumer behavior. When steak prices rise, consumers “substitute” cheaper proteins such as hamburger or chicken. Thus, Boskin states, the consumer is spending no more than they previously were, and is not suffering inflation.

The reality is that consumers have been priced out of steak due to price increases. Oh, and somehow, the decrease in quality does not get hedonically adjusted when it raises inflation.

As I said, the Boskin Commission was a massive fraud. Fred Sheehan has more here . . ."

A Texan's picture

"...The Boskin Commission was an act of fraud, a backdoor method to suppress Social Security cost of living adjustments (COLAs). To be blunt, it was an act of cowardice. Rather than man up and say “fix this, its broken, we can’t afford it” the commission took a different route — they fabricated a series of nonsense adjustments  that artificially lowered CPI by 1.1%."

 

They not only screwed with the annual CPI adjustment, they raised the retirement age from 65 to 67 and they also raised the FICA tax limit each year, and STILL the fucking thing is going bust (and taking all of us with it).

 

As to how to calculate inflation - I think that the CPI was manipulated from the beginning (and, even so, it still shows a decrease of ~96% in the dollar's value since 1913).  Why?  Common sense.  Take products that everyone buys - a stamp, for instance.  It was $0.03 to mail a letter as late as 1958.  Now it is $0.44, which reflects an increase of about 5.2%/year compounded.  Yet, inflation is calculated at just under 4% per year over the period.  Try it with a loaf of bread, a subway token, the price of a house, cars, etc.  ALL of them show a significant understatement of the inflation rate.

 

I think that the price of AU and AG, as manipulated as they are, give some hint as to the true inflation rate.  A silver quarter was worth $0.25 in 1964.  Now just the metal content is worth $6.20.  Nearly 25 times the price in just 47 years - that dwarfs reported inflation, which at 4.0% would increase the price of anything by only 6.3 times.  Gold has gone from ~$40/oz. since 1968 (when a two-tiered market came about) to ~$1400 now, and increase of 35 times - again dwarfing reported inflation.

 

But Mathman swallows the reported figures hook, line and sinker.  He's got exactly zero credibility with me.

ElvisDog's picture

I like MathMan's posts. He is the new Harry Wanger.

r101958's picture

He calculates them the same way the gov't calculated them before they started fudging the numbers.

asdasmos's picture

Anyone have a link to Part 2 that they want to share?

Spalding_Smailes's picture

This fucking clown ••• Did anyone see Gonzo Lira ?

 

 

 

Shadowstats' John Williams: Prepare For The Hyperinflationary Great Depression

 • 12/14/2009 •

 

John Williams, who runs the popular counter government data manipulation site Shadowstats, has thrown down the gauntlet to deflationists, and in an extensive report concludes that the probability of a hyperinflationary episode in America over the • next year • has reached critical level.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/shadowstats-john-williams-prepare-hyper...

 

 

Robot Traders Mom's picture

Listen you little fucking dweeb, the whole commodity complex went through the roof in the year after he said this. It has reached a critical level. Thanks for pointing out that John Williams is correct and you are a tool.

panika2008's picture

Yeah, e.g. steel prices going up 16% over 2010 or natgas price in a standstill. Definitely a hyperinflationary depression.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Hyperinflationary great depression .... I just picked up a loaf of bread for 75 cents.

 

Show me any signs of a looming hyperinflation • depression ? Cat's booming , McD's , GE, AT&T, Berkshire , IBM, Verison, Boeing , Kroger , Microsoft , Dupont , Alcoa , Tyson , Macy's , Deere , Apple , Publix , Coke , Eli Lilly ,Weyerhaeuser , Halliburton , Colgate , Pepsi , Waste Management , Monsanto , Cambell Soup ,Dover , Smurfit - Stone , Google , Famiy Dollar .... ( The USA is a fucking power house ).............since this dufus ran his trap .......

 

You fucking tool. Look at yourself and your post, no insight on finance , modern day troll spewing forth .... hold it, hold it .... Nothing, your a clown. 

 

Sean7k's picture

As the recipeint's of the primary dealer QE liquidity, the nifty fifty have continued to march higher. Which begs two questions: one, what happens when the liquidity injections stop? and two, what is the value of the currency these gains are valued in?

Then consider the ramifications of China's drive towards reserve currency status- even if it is a shared one. Trillions of dollars with no place to go will produce continuous inflation. Hyperinflation? Probably not. I think the FED is smart enough to either manage it with high inflation or resort to a global currency through negotiation and in an effort "to be more fair to developing economies". 

Spalding_Smailes's picture

So QE & Pomo are powering the these businesses bottom line over the last 3 years ....???? Are you fucking stoned ?

 

They are booming on a global market place • stage .....

 

Did you ever think China , Brazil , USA picking up may be driving commodities also ????

When China stops printing ( M2 25% per year ) building roads • buildings commodities will drop , big time.

Sean7k's picture

Yep. An inflated money supply increases the numerical value of stocks, but not the actual value. That is done through production. This is why the stock market is not the economy. 

See you can make a point without name calling- care to try?

Spalding_Smailes's picture

 

All those business are expanding across the globe. Selling more product , You can look at any of the businesses and see the bottom line getting better every quarter. • fact • 

Pomo • QE are helping fill the void of deflation in the shadow banking complex .... Book it.

 

ANALYSIS - China the wild card for commodity prices

(Reuters) - A strengthening global economy and growth in demand are likely to keep commodity prices high in coming months, but there is a risk China could slam on the monetary brakes and trigger a reversal.

 

 

• • • • • Ludwig von Mises Institute • • • • •

How China's monetary policy drives world commodity prices

How monetary expansion and the rigid exchange rate drive commodity prices

Based on the huge trade surplus with the United States, which stood at $114 bill in 2005, most analysts have concluded that the current rate of exchange of 8.017 yuan to the US dollar is far too high. However, what matters for the currency rate of exchange is the pace of money expansion relative to real economic growth — not the state of the trade account.

After falling to negative 1.2% in March 2001 the yearly rate of growth of the central bank balance sheet (monetary pumping) relative to real economic activity climbed to 28.2% in September 2005. In February this year the yearly rate of growth of the relative pumping stood at 22.1%.

In contrast, the yearly rate of growth of the Fed's balance sheet in relation to real economic activity fell from 11.6% in September 2001 to 0.9% in March this year.

http://mises.org/daily/2134

 

Spalding_Smailes's picture

They are still using the dollar peg & they are printing like mad ... It's worse now ...

 


FEBRUARY 27, 2011, 7:51 P.M. ET

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China's broadest measure of money supply, M2, is likely to rise by 16% this year, Gao Xiaoqiong, the head of a regional branch of the People's Bank of China, said in a commentary piece in the Financial News on Monday.

At the end of December, M2 was up 19.7% from a year earlier.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110227-702695.html


Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Dude you are somewhat correct on the short term, but utterly wrong on the longer term. You are looking at numbers based on artificiality, plus a lot of those stats are based on cooked numbers. Everything out there is artificial right now. Check out all the empty cities in China: empires to nothingness. What the fuck are they being built for? Its busy work based on government stimulus. There wasn't demand, it was simply desperate stimulus spending targeting these sectors. In the past this has worked. Now, not so much because of the structural, systemic problems. It will end. Those numbers will go belly up.

 

You can junk and be a total dick all you want:

 

In the end the inevitable march of Time and Math catches up with us all.

 

We'll laugh at your embarrassment for being completely off course, for what little it will be worth.

 

Ps-- Tell Ben he sucks.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Check out all the empty cities in China: empires to nothingness. 

 

So is this driving commodity prices ( construction 60-70% of GDP in China ) Or is it Ben's Pomo • QE ?

Sean7k's picture

Not sure why you are using information that is severely dated- 5 to 10 years. Things may have changed since then.

As for bottom lines, they are priced in dollars- yes? Those dollars are inflated- yes? Then those "facts" need to be interpreted in that light- yes? 

Certainly, if they were making more product, it would show up in their employment numbers- yes? They would be buying more inputs- yes? There would be no evidence of margin squeezes- yes? There would be declining inventories- yes? 

The problem with "facts" is they require a setting and interpretation. Without that, they are merely statistics- lies with mathematical proofs. 

Spalding_Smailes's picture

So what has changed since that piece China still peg's. Thats the only point in the article , money games.

Don't tear down the piece because its 5 years old, they are doing the same shit.

USA • EU • M2 growing at 3% • China 25% ...

 

We have had 1 quadrillion dollars floating around the globe for years now. Your saying the new pomo • QE are tipping things over now ?

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Hey SeanK7 ......

 

What do you have to say now ? Still blaming Ben or is it the Peg that China uses ?

 

Is it 60% GDP in construction in China driving commodities ? Do the hedge funds • speculators have anything to do with the price. Look at when oil hit $150 a few years ago, the traders fueled that !!!

Sean7k's picture

I'm not sure what you are referring to when you say, "what do you say now?".

As for Ben and the peg, I am still blaming Ben. The Chinese are in the same trap we set for the Japanese. If they remove the peg, there investment in dollars creates huge losses. This is the trap. We trade market access for dependency on our debt. The Chinese are merely trying to find the best way to extricate themselves from the process.

Unfortunately for Ben, I think the Chinese will do a better job. As they are not dependent on us militarily, they can be more brazen in their exit strategy- thus the expansion of the yuan as a reserve currency, the transfer of dollar denominated debt for gold, silver and other commodities and finally, the western technology and research that has caught them up and will power them in the future.

It will be a large price to pay, but as the Chinese have always been hard workers, they will make that up and more in the future. 

We will have created and funded our very own barbarian at the gate. 

Spalding_Smailes's picture

The PBoC controls the peg. I'm not sheeding crocodile tears for the communist PBoC, sorry.

 

They do this so they can build shit really cheap. But this also causes them to import inflation, just like all the other countries that peg. Not Ben's problem.

 

BEN CAN NOT CHANGE THE PEG. ITS UP TO THE PBOC TO DO THIS THEY CONTROL CHINA.

 

Your argument has been blown out of the water. 

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

In your own mind maybe. Take some calming meds dude.

Sean7k's picture

Funny how you only answer the parts of a comment you want to. 

Yes, China controls the peg. It will be slowly removing it from the peg as it expands it's economic base and includes more countries willing to trade in the yuan. I think it will be successful. 

It is not Ben's problem- no, but it is ours. We are beginning to pay the price and the price will continue to rise, while China moves ahead. 

The US is creating debt at a pace that dwarfs it's ability to pay it off. We are destined to default. This will have ramifications that even our military cannot overcome. 

China is creating debt also, but it is doing it while creating assets- assets that will be valuable in the future.

As you have yet to respond to my argument, it appears to be sitting idle and at peace- awaiting a well reasoned response. That is the problem with copy and paste- it requires analysis.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

 

The commodities are driven by building • construction  60 % of GDP, all the workers, will they building at this pace for 5 years. They have a per capita of $5,000 cerca 1890 in USA.

Look at Japan and her debt. We are the reserve currency our inflation gets spread out throughout the world because of this just like we sold debt ( cdo's ect ) we sold off that debt. China has no securitization market for selling of debt. They are sitting on bad bank loans ( asian crisis from 10 years ago ) they have 12 trillion in bad debt at the local level, all the npl's because the corrupt local pimp's.

 

If you build a city for 1 million and no one moves in is this an asset, really ? No its big trouble, no maintenance , how long can a building stay empty before it fails. The roads, all the construction is producing a 9-10% GDP all bullshit. How will everyone afford all the new building and everything they bring if they don't have jobs because the the manufactures are no long hiring, they are now firing because they are no longer competitive.

 

 

 

 

O.K.... Keep attacking my cut • paste facts. It's needed for ZH like you ....

 

Ordos still empty ... Years later built for 1 million.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk

 

 

 

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Jack Rodman, who has made a career of selling soured property loans from Los Angeles to Tokyo, sees a crash looming in China. He keeps a slide show on his computer of empty office buildings in Beijing, his home since 2002. The tally: 55, with another dozen candidates.

“I took these pictures to try to impress upon these people the massive amount of oversupply,” said Rodman, 63, president of Global Distressed Solutions LLC, which advises private equity and hedge funds on Chinese property and banking. Rodman figures about half of the city’s commercial space is vacant, more than was leased in Germany’s five biggest office markets in 2009.

Beijing’s office vacancy rate of 22.4 percent in the third quarter of last year was the ninth-highest of 103 markets tracked by CB Richard Ellis Group Inc., a real estate broker. Those figures don’t include many buildings about to open, such as the city’s tallest, the 6.6-billion yuan ($966 million) 74- story China World Tower 3.

Empty buildings are sprouting across China as companies with access to some of the $1.4 trillion in new loans last year build skyscrapers. Former Morgan Stanley chief Asia economist Andy Xie and hedge fund manager James Chanos say the country’s property market is in a bubble.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6i2PSZD.Jr4

 

Sean7k's picture

First, commodities are not driven by building. Most commodities are food, many are used in manufacturing or agriculture. Second, construction is a part of industry- which represented 46% of last years GDP (wikipedia). 

Now that we are past the lies in your statement, what percentage of GDP is represented by these assets? Are they similar to our shadow inventory of construction that is sitting empty? 

As we have global derivitives in excess of one quadrillion dollars and most are represented in construction, who is really in the more dangerous position? Are they assets for our banks, but not for theirs?

You are applying prejudice and bias into your argument and  stacking it with statistics that are dead wrong. I don't mind humoring your attacks, but please take the time to introduce discipline in your acquisition of material- it breeds a better argument and makes your position easier to defend.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Copper , Steel , all shirts for all the workers in China ect .... So China does not use food , Cotton, ect ... 1.4 billion in China all naked, Lol'

 

Keep twisting in the wind. China's a bubble ,book it.

This is from 08' before all the construction really went crazy ....

.......... " Metal consumption in China and the U.S., the future of copper and nickel


Posted: February 20, 2008, 9:05 AM by Jonathan Ratner

While average U.S. metal consumption per capita is nine times that of China and 15 times greater than in India, it is less influential on the global metal market than it has been in the past.

This message comes from Sucden (UK) Ltd.’s Jeremy Goldwyn, the firm’s global head of industrial commodities, who spoke to Desjardins Securities’ 2008 commodities outlook conference recently.

One important thing to note in terms of China’s consumption, he said, is that it has shifted from manufacturing to infrastructure.

Meanwhile, copper, which has rallied 400% from its cyclical lows and has not experienced the weakness other base metals have, remains the barometer for other metals, Mr. Goldwyn said.

As for nickel, Norilsk Nickel’s chief economist David Humphreys said he expects China will retain significant growth potential given the large gap between annual stainless steel production growth at 46% and nickel consumption at 22%.

He also said nickel is often the late runner amongst major metals and sees stainless steel producers restocking in the first half of 2008.

His conclusion: The nickel cost curve has steepened on a sustainable basis, which will support higher prices. Industry returns will grow, but not all producers will get an equal cut, Desjardins said. " .....................


 http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2008/02/20/metal-consumption-in-china-and-the-u-s-the-future-of-copper-and-nickel.aspx#ixzz1FYnSDCck

Sean7k's picture

Pretty sure China would use clothing and food, regardless of the industry they are in, but you still haven't mentioned your statistical lie of 60% construction.

Copper is ONE commodity.

Stainless steel is used more often in food preparation, restaurants, furniture etc- all items for domestic and export markets.

As your own statistics point out that the US is the biggest purchaser of these items, I would conjecture that the dollar is driving the price and, correct me if I'm wrong, Ben is driving the dollar. 

Please learn how to do analysis.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

What lie ??? Fucking Clown .... Your the guy spreading false hoods about the commie's. Consumption dropping .....

 

 

The overdependence on new real estate in China, when the demand isn't there, will cause the nation to eventually "hit a wall," hedge fund manager James Chanos told CNBC Friday.

Construction is 60-plus percent of GDP, compared to exports of 5,” said Chanos, who is the founder and president of Kynikos Associates.

 

“The problem is that consumption as a percentage of Chinese economy has declined in the last 10 years, from 40 to 35 percent. It’s all real estate,” he said. After the US, China has the world's second largest economy.

Chanos said that steel, iron ore, cement and other materials needed for construction will be "under pressure."

China has built new cities that are now essentially empty, he added. Despite the overbuilding, said Chanos, construction continues at a good clip, with 12 million to 15 million residential units this year. The units, priced similar to those for US residents, are intended for Chinese who earn about $3,500 annually and are in the bottom 20 percent of wage earners. Ironically, many of the Chinese who've moved to cities from the country are construction workers, he noted.

“When construction is • 60 percent of your economy •, and you are building lots of things that people don’t need, the state may let this get out of control,” he said. “It’s hard to manage this type of bubble.”

Chanos predicted that America would fare better, should the China bubble burst, because the US doesn’t export as heavily to China as do Europe, other countries in Asia and Latin America.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40605908/China_Overbuilding_to_Hit_a_Wall_Chanos

 

Spalding_Smailes's picture

As they move the peg the manufacturing complex grows weaker. More people get fired. 

 

The debt is not an issue , look at Japan. The communist overlords that run everything are producing massive amounts roads , building just so they can print 10% GDP. All the construction is driving commodity prices , copper , steel , ect ... Not Ben's pomo.

 

They are creating debt at an alarming pace, we are the reserve currency out dollars flow through forex , oil , global letters of credit ect ... You can't compare the yuan debt issues with the USA. Those are not assets , are all the over built McMansion's assets now after the 40% drop over the last 4 years in the USA, yup, but its dropped 40%. Whats going to happen to all the construction workers in China after the building bubble pop's ? Or can they just keep building printing M2 at 25% per year.

Sean7k's picture

Prove your first statement. It is an assumption. The manufacturing complex is dependent on the sale of goods and services- you must first show a decline below break even to make your point- you haven't. The peg is only a part of the equation.

Communist overlords? Really? Do they just dress differently than our overlords? More sinister I suspect...of course, our dollar printing has no effect on commodity prices whatsoever, it is only the Chinese...Look at Japan- you want that economy? Coupled with our consumers and military? Now, that is just laughable.

Yes, they are creating debt at an alarming pace, something that is necessary if they are to become a reserve currency, just as they are selling Yuan denominated bonds- something else necessary to become a reserve currency. Oh, and the topper? They are creating goods and services wanted by the global economy to continue to grow their GDP without all those pesky entitlement programs while they trade dollars for gold and silver and their people continue to save and invest. 

Your inabilty to analyse material is clouding your judgement. I suggest some further study...