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Shadowstats' John Williams Exposes The Media's Propaganda Spin, Or Why Watching CNBC Can Be Hazardous To Your Wealth

Tyler Durden's picture


In his latest letter to subscribers, Shadowstats' John Williams dissects recent economic data, and after providing yet more evidence that after the recent period of "bottom-bouncing at a low-level plateau of business activity" the economy has once again entered a double dip. Overall, it has cost the US taxpayers several trillion in debt (which will never be repaid), and a major hit to the value of the paper in their wallets, just to play the game of extend and pretend for a just under 18 months. The positive effects of the sugar high are now gone, leaving just the negative, one of which is the propaganda spin engulfing the entire legacy media complex whose survival depends on the ongoing perpetuation of the Ponzi lie that all is well. And courtesy of Mr. Williams we have prima facie evidence of precisely why formerly reputable channels such as CNBC are in the process destroying their credibility and causing an exodus of viewers, with the few remaining viewers remaining primarily for the opportunity to heckle the openly lying talking heads. To wit from Shadowstats: "Let me recount two personal experiences. Back in late-1989, I contended that the U.S. economy was in or headed into a deep recession. CNBC had me in to discuss my views along with a senior economist for a large New York bank, who was looking for continued economic growth. Before the show, the bank economist and I shared our views in the Green Room. I outlined my case for a major recession, and, to my shock, his response was, "I think that pretty much is the consensus." We got on the air, I gave my recession pitch, and he proclaimed a booming economy for the year ahead. He was a good economist and knew what was happening, but he had to put out the story mandated by his employer, or he would not have had a job. More recently, following an interview on a major cable news network (not CNBC), I was advised off-air by the producer that they were operating under a corporate mandate to give the economic news a positive spin, irrespective of how bad it was." And now you know that watching stations like CNBC for anything more than just comedic value is hazardous to your health and wealth.

John Williams criticism is even harsher:

Further complicating the outlook is a more traditional issue: pronouncements by some economists on Wall Street and financial reporters in the popular media, who act as shills for the needs of Wall Street and political Washington. While there are a number of fine and honest economists and financial reporters in their respective fields, there also are those — often very heavily publicized — who spew Pollyannaish nonsense aimed at affecting public sentiment and/or the financial markets during troubled economic times.  

I know from other personal experiences that these circumstances are commonplace. A simple example of recent distortion was yesterday’s positive hype over an unexpectedly-low weekly jobless claims number. Widely known — at least I have discussed the matter frequently — is that the Department of Labor cannot adjust the weekly claims numbers meaningfully for regular seasonal variations. Accordingly, reporting around holidays invariably results in unusually large and unexpected swings in the weekly numbers. Yesterday’s data covered the onset of the Fourth of July weekend. It would not be at all unusual to see a similarly-meaningless reverse-gyration in next week’s release.

At least we can now drop any pretense that America and the Evil Empire of the 1980's are in any way different - central planning: check; complete media subjugation: check; power to the (unionized) workers: check; "free" healthcare for all - check; the only difference is that the hegemonic kleptocrats in the US, i.e., the banking elite, are sophisticated enough to keep the plebs distracted and while enjoying their last years of power in a collapsing regime, are rapidly transferring whatever remaining pockets of wealth in US (and global) society are left to their own private safes in undisclosed locations. We know how things ended for the once great USSR - it should provide a great roadmap for what is coming to the US.

And while we are on the topic of John Williams, who remains the only accurate tracker of M3 now that the Fed deems this monetary aggregate irrelevant, here is his latest commentary on the inflation-adjusted M3. It's ugly:

Plotted below is the year-to-year change in real (inflation-adjusted) M3 (updated for the Fed’s revisions) versus U.S. recessions, as recognized  by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Whenever annual real change in M3 has turned negative, the economy always has fallen into  recession, or if already in recession, the economy has entered a period of intensified downturn, usually within six to nine months of the initial M3  downturn. The signal for economic trouble ahead is the annual real M3 growth first turning negative, as happened in December 2009.



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Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:00 | 468627 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture


Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:03 | 468638 docj
docj's picture

We've always been at war with Eastasia, citizen.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:23 | 468699 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture


Optimism is jobs

Bullshit is growth

Looting is work

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 17:19 | 469339 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

My "I'm getting creeped out" meter went off the other day.  I had to buy another case of canned food to calm my nerves.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 21:43 | 469960 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Caring enough" solves problems.

Pollyana knows reality.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:33 | 468942 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Look at the derivative of M3 though.  It's getting smaller and looks like it will hit a minimum soon.

You can't predict the future with the past, unless you use derivatives and technical patterns to see WHY a trend is played out or will play out soon.

Nothing lasts forever.  Even the war with Eastasia had to end eventually.

When everybody is buying, who will be left to buy soon?

Everybody is buying all this doom and gloom shit lately.  That's why we saw a rally.
When people get bullish again (as they have been during earnings) we will see a top in stochastics and another leg down.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:30 | 469143 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

Nothing lasts forever.  Even the war with Eastasia had to end eventually.


Huh?  Eastasia is our ally.  We are at war with Eurasia and always have been.  I'm bullish on Navistar.   BUY BUY BUY

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 21:44 | 469962 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Oceania uber alles!

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:32 | 469154 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

That chart is the derivative. Bottoming out doesn't mean anything; it has to go all the way back up into positive territory to expand again.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 18:53 | 469574 docj
docj's picture

Uh, sure.  So hip-hip-horray that we - allegedly in the midst of this skittle-shitting unicorn driven most-awesomeist-recovery-in-the-entire-recorded-history-of-ever - are, by your logic, collapsing slightly  less slowly then when everyone thought the world was ending last spring.

Wow - guess I'll go buy me an iPoop now.

Thanks for that.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:05 | 469064 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

Doubleplus good.


Wed, 07/14/2010 - 23:54 | 470200 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

"I was advised off-air by the producer that they were operating under a corporate mandate to give the economic news a positive spin, irrespective of how bad it was."

I blame George Bush.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 23:54 | 470202 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

Oh wait!

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:10 | 468655 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

It's not what you know, it's what people think you know:

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 22:53 | 470095 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

Nice one.  But it'll never be a real school until they make it to a bowl game.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:32 | 468939 Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer's picture

It's 2:30 or 3:30 on the east coast.  Here comes the pump.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:50 | 469008 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

You're thinking too small. GETV is more like it. And behind the corporation are a lot of powerful financial interests. After all, General Electric didn't get that banking charter because they have such great programming on its cable channels or their poison filled mercury CFLs.....

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:03 | 468636 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

LOL fed forecast - booming economy/recovery NOT as liesman gently lays it out - better than expected decling GDP

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:59 | 468844 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

Wait, wait wait, you can't just claim that you were told to put a positive spin on your analysis without identifying the media outlet and the producer that told you this. No more of this hinky unverifiable rumor driven bullshit. If there's a story, let's hear it or stop wasting my time to plug your damn websites.I agree with you that there is a very positive spin mechanism, which has recently broken down. 73% of americans don't believe the hype anymore, and even Krugman is like a whole different guy on his radio program than his CNBS show, but come on. 

This shit drives me up the wall. The world is a shitty enough place without making more of it up...

I totally just slept with a super model, I just can't tell you which one...right.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:10 | 468637 Mako
Mako's picture

All one has to do is look at Total Credit Market Debt in the lastest Federal Reserve Z1 report.  You don't have an expanding economy, you have a deflating economy. 

You are probably in a death spiral and probably have been for over a year. 

Credit from $52.9T to $52.1T in a year ... it's collapsing.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:28 | 468733 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Uhhhh... 1.8% YOY contraction doesn't seem like a collapse to me.

There are many other signs of a collapse, but I don't see this as one.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:00 | 468833 Mako
Mako's picture

Remove the panic Federal government creation and your numbers look very much worse. 

Oh, they have done a good job of slow the decline, on that I would agree.  The ATMs would have stopped working in 2008 without massive government and central banking assistance. 

Someone better find the new credit to service $52.1T fast.

Death spiral, slow death.

2007: Credit creation peaked in dollar terms at $4.7T annualized

2008: Credit creation failed to expand

2009: Credit creation collapsed at a -$808B rate

2010: Continue of the credit creation collapse

Slow death, remove Fed government spending and you will see almost instant chaos once again, of course it's still going to happen, just in a slow death way now.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:05 | 468643 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

LOL fed predicting recovery 5-6 years out; 2-3 years after obama leaves office

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:26 | 468716 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Don't know who drive-by junked you. 

I've never bought into the concept of the "new normal" - that you could have slow growth as a steady state. There's too much debt, inefficient capacity, and structural inefficiencies to support debt service needs in a slow growth environment. Either the growth picks up and 'we' can pay off the debt and roll the debt, or you start having waves of defaults and a deflationary spiral. Nothing's been solved - the can has just been kicked down the road. At some point, you either grow out of it (which is doubtful) or you have to pay the piper. There is nothing in the middle. 

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:05 | 468857 Greyzone
Greyzone's picture

I've never figured out a way to have a "steady state" economy with high debt loads. I am not sure it can be done as debt requires growth to pay back the interest or results in deliberate impoverishment of one set of people for the benefit of another set of people. And that latter option is not sustainable either because people do things like pull out guillotines and such when they feel too oppressed.

Any steady state economy will have to be a low debt or no debt economy.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:35 | 468950 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

"I've never bought into the concept of the "new normal""

What!? You have a problem with waking up at 5AM everyday, drinking a half a bottle of vodka just get up the nerve to turn on the TV for your daily dose of fiction, then spending the balance of the day alternating between screaming hysterically and smacking yourself in the head with a hammer?

Man up.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:07 | 468646 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Grow up! Don't let the parade pass you buy. Get in or get out. ZH is all about negative news... so sayeth the CNBC visitors to this site.

CNBC is to the financial industry just like newspapers were to the real-estate industry during the 2000s: full of fluff reporting at the expense of their integrity.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:10 | 468657 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

"negative news?"  more like truthful news, hard reality; a small balance to the overwhelming fake news

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:29 | 468725 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Don't tell that to some of these CNBC-heads that prowl around here trying to make us look like clowns for being "brain-washed," "sheep," or (insert ignorant adjective here). They'll just point out they're more intelligent than us since they have an affinity to gamble more than us.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:40 | 468973 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Look, just because somebody is negative doesn't make them "sheep" or "brainwashed" or whatever.
However, it doesn't mean that they are right.

ZH has been negative on the markets as long as I've been coming here, and yet the markets have rallied the entire time.
Is the MSM right?  No.  Is ZH right?  No.

Nothing is ever black or white, and yet most people seem to think in these terms.

When everybody is buying gold, it's time to sell.  When everybody is selling gold, it's time to buy.

I think that what people at this site fail to understand is that their views are a lot more common than they think, for one, since the public sentiment is so negative in general.
What people also fail to realize is that an extreme view in any direction is nothing but a precursor for trends to change.

The CNBC heads are no more wrong than the ZH people.  At least they've been right about the rally, even though they were wrong about the decline.
ZH was right about the decline and wrong about the rally.

When the facts change, so does my mind.  What do you do sir?
Reality is reality.  Perception of reality is in the eye of the individual.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 19:17 | 469616 Everyman
Everyman's picture

QUOTE:  "ZH has been negative on the markets as long as I've been coming here, and yet the markets have rallied the entire time.
Is the MSM right?  No.  Is ZH right?  No."

Totally wrong.  ZH has been consistently correct on the manipulation of the market, and CNBS idiots need to commit Hari Kari for the lying pieces of filth that they are.  The CNBS and the Media (including the banksters and politicians they enable) are worse for this country than ALL the TALIBAHN.


CNBS has almost EVERYBODY WRONG on the station.  Kudlow is one of the first that needs to be put up against the wall.  I used to like Kirnan and Kudlow, but NO MORE.  They are the biggest liars and have the largest lack of credibility in the country or industry.  Don't even get me started with the "Fast Money Crowd" or Stevie the idiot savant pumper.


If these people had ANY MORALS or ETHICS or something called JOURNALISTIC INTEGRITY, they would be questioning more the politics, the lying bankers, and the lying govt workers that come up with the false stats!


How could ANYONE with half a damn brain NOT UNDERSTAND that UE is over 20%???

How can these people get up there and state there is a "recovery" when so many are UE'ed and on benefits????

How can any of those CNBS idiots not take into account the debt, sovereign debt, defaults, and deficits, and then think everything is just OK,and "better than  expected" or "beats expectations"!!!!!!


Just how low does it have to go to "expect" this kind of crap to go for actual News reporting or media??


It is propaganda and fantasy.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:50 | 468811 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

+1 Here! Here! Like He Said

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:53 | 469013 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I think they misunderstood the comment Homie.

Your point being that trolls call it negative and ZHers call it reality.


Homie...I saw your doodle...


Wed, 07/14/2010 - 20:56 | 469871 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

As someone who has had the pleasure of being a "guest" on CNBS several times, I can speak from experience that Mr Williams states the truth.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:08 | 468649 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Orwell understood people in power do anything to stay there.

Our news media today = 1984 - "Newspeak"

Watch, read and listen to todays media at the risk of serious mental health issues.

Thank God for ZH!

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:16 | 468884 deadparrot
deadparrot's picture

Best way for a criminal to stay out of jail is to sign the judges' paychecks.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:11 | 468650 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Tyler, I like your anger. You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:10 | 468656 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I am shocked! Shocked I say! Well, maybe not shocked. Maybe not even surprised.

"a corporate mandate to give the economic news a positive spin, irrespective of how bad it was"

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:13 | 468667 UGrev
UGrev's picture

The ministry of truth is alive and well.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:55 | 468828 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture


"Thoughtcrime does not entail death: thoughtcrime is death."
- George Orwell, 1984

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:12 | 468660 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

I was advised off-air by the producer that they were operating under a corporate mandate to give the economic news a positive spin, irrespective of how bad it was.

OK, that's on the end-result side. Who exactly ordered the positive spin? I have my doubts about the tv station owners, since to some degree they calculate that folks will watch news more when there is some degree of danger or uncertainty in the environment.

This is the opposite of shouting "Fire!" in a theatre--they're shouting "Oooh, what nice tiki torches. How relaxing..." as they're trying to edge out the door before the smoke overtakes everyone.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:12 | 468662 Chemba
Chemba's picture

I think ZH would be even more impactful (than it is) were it to expunge the bias, and focus on facts and analysis (only)

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:16 | 468673 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Every media oulet has bias, even new media, just turn on your filter and dive in!

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:17 | 468677 Chemba
Chemba's picture

excellent point

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 20:10 | 469751 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

bias?  I prefer to call it "flavour". . .

slightly bitter, somewhat tart, overall heady. . . *nods*

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:12 | 468664 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

even funnier buffet telling obama things are "positive"

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:17 | 468674 Misean
Misean's picture

CNBS has to counter the nattering nabobs of negativism on the web. 

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:17 | 468678 newporttrader
newporttrader's picture

LOL listening to CNBC is useless. I wish i had my DVR set where they mentioned that Before Hayward met with Obama, BP wanted an agreement where if they agreed to do what Obama wanted they wanted the US media to lay off as it was destroying their stock price. As soon as Obama got his 20b all of a sudden the Only thing worth talking about is Lebron and Some kid that stole an airplane with no shoes on?

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:18 | 468680 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

This is the economy of the walking dead.

That's why I don't believe they can take this rally to the moon.  If they could move the market indefinitely, you know they would already have done so.  If they had the power to change reality, they wouldn't have let their all important consumer confidence slip by "allowing" the market to drop from the April 23rd high.  Nice try in early June, but they gave all that back too.  People with unlimited power don't have to time their manipulation to coincide with reported earnings.  They DO seem to be able to really move the market hard for only about a week at a time and then Bennie has to head back to the helicopter pad to reload.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:27 | 468721 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

I have my creeping suspicions that after those of us small investors who see the train get out of stocks, something will be done to prop up stocks, or at least some of them, to again benefit a small cabal of insiders at the expense of everyone else.

If I knew what that something was, I would either join in or prosecute them.  But I don't.

This will repeat a couple more times until growth somewhere far away and peak oil combine to wipe the US out for good.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:41 | 468976 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

They keep waiting for someone else to join them at the 3 card monte table. They make it look like people are making money playing this game. But they are not - the people standing around are all "in on it." They are merely swapping Andrew Jackson ID cards over a cardboard box waiting for you to join the game, and then they will clean your clock.

Steer clear.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 17:36 | 469388 Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

My guess is a low volume stock market rally to appease the politicians seeking reelection so that they don't shut down the HFT computers, something that would require integrity on their part to contradict the wishes of the financial sector contributors to their campaigns.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:18 | 468682 Timmay
Timmay's picture

Who pays CNBC's bills?? Who??

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:23 | 468698 Misean
Misean's picture

I'd like to say, like sporting news, the ultimate payers are the buyers of the products advertised there.  However, since most of the products advertised there are from multi-trillion dollar Unky Sugah! bailed out bankster firms, I'd have to say, ultimately, the taxpayer.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:26 | 468715 hazenyc
hazenyc's picture

their advertisers..

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:27 | 469132 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Ironically, most of their advertisers are hawking G-ooooo-llllld (in my best G Gorden Liddy impression).

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:21 | 468690 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

Just remember ZHers, as the number of lemmings willing to swallow this swill milk diminishes, so does your escape window.

Bide your time well.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:22 | 468695 BlackBelt
BlackBelt's picture

Friedman is rolling in his grave...the one no-no by a CB is contracting M3

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:24 | 468703 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Condescending, patronizing bastards, or dumbest guys in the room.  Your choice.  May you (CNBC et al) simmer in your own rancid juices, and then lose your emergency UE benefits after your network folds.  Let's see you put a positive spin on that!

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:28 | 468728 nmewn
nmewn's picture

That's one sick lookin M3 chart.

This ain't inflation...and the SP just put in a fresh low for the Forest run!!!

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:35 | 468747 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

I am coming to find an epidemic of optimism as long as your house has yet to be foreclosed and you are employed. Everything is ok, you negative person. It doesn't matter what the reality is, it is just noise to be ignored by brainwashed masses. What will they think when they are homeless and unemployed?

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 18:41 | 469548 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Who cares what the homeless and unemployed think? They don't even care what voters with guns think.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:34 | 468755 Joaquin
Joaquin's picture

This is a bigger problem than just the media.  That same economist testifying before Congress is just going to lie as well.  The reason is that it is often paid testimony and quite lucrative; the economist will want to keep coming back to testify before congress but that won't happen if he is a contrarian.  Now the same economist is asked to interview on CNBC; no way is he going to say something different than his testimony.  Everyone sings pretty songs in front of Congress because the pay is good and congress and the media are in synched but the truth isn't told though the economist knows it.



Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:39 | 468772 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Negative return on debt money - its all over baby.

Almost all investments over the last 40 years have been consumption in drag.

A blind man without a sense of touch or smell could tell this girl ain't a girl

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:09 | 469077 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Just 5 minutes on the internet tubes and it's hard to tell what is what anymore anyway.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 21:00 | 469877 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Maybe the Hard Money crowd are wrong - maybe we need more soft women.......

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:39 | 468780 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

CNBC: Criminal Network of Bankster Cretins

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:10 | 469079 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I like it, and with a name like that, you need a good avatar.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:39 | 468783 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

It's 2:36 pm.  Isn't it about time for Bernanke to jump through the window like Lassie and drag the market from the burning house?  Why do so for a solid week and then stop?  Unless, of course, you can't continue.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:29 | 468928 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

How about if he just jumps through the window?

Say 70 stories up and hits the pavement at 32 ft./sec.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:44 | 468795 Tarheel
Tarheel's picture

maria bartaromo is really blatant about spinning stories a certain way. she pretends to be a trader/investment advisor when she is really just a reporter.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:28 | 468923 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

She is guilty by association (injection actually) She is married into the Saul Steinberg clan.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:50 | 468809 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

What the hell happened to Becky Quick?  Did somebody punch her in the mouth?  She's got a hickville gap in her front teeth that's wasn't there before.




Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:46 | 468993 Chump
Chump's picture

Cocaine is a helluva drug.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:25 | 469129 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

The Oracle's skeet is a little too acidic, maybe?

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 18:39 | 469540 Blano
Blano's picture

Thanks for the laugh.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 18:40 | 469543 Blano
Blano's picture

That last pic looks like she was up all night.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 20:57 | 469874 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Its caused by her daily attempt to suck Buffetts dick and balls at the same time.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:50 | 468810 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

What to know how the collapse of the US will compare to USSR?

Read  - Reinventing Collapse by Dmitry Orlov.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 14:57 | 468836 Carl Marks
Carl Marks's picture

I like CNBC because their bitches show cleavage. I'd watch it 24/7 if they were naked.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:18 | 468889 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

"just to play the game of extend and pretend for a just under 18 months"

Yup, that sounds about right. Pretty good considering the attention span of our (stupid asshole) leaders. If we could have just made it to the mid-terms...........

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:13 | 469083 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Hah it's not the leaders that have the short attention span.  Wait, what were we talking about again?  OMG I, like, so forgot!  But did you watch that last episode of Lost?

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 18:07 | 469452 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

What? When? Oh Hi. I will check my DVR. I can't remember!

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:34 | 468891 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Wow, am I missing something, or does that chart illustrate absolutely nothing? It's plot of M3 is moving positively through half the recessions and negatively through the other half, and is in positive and/or negative growth stages through all of them; how useless.

Not to mention M3 hasn't been reported since 2006.

Now I'm not saying shadowstats doesn't do excellent work. But can someone please explain the value of this chart to me?

Also, despite all the egregious deleveraging going on since Dec2009 (indeed November 2008), M1 and M2 are still expanding (inflating), while the prices of food/fuel and other daily essentials are increasing, which are also decent indicators of inflation.

Sure, houses cost less,  at least in the less desirable locations anyway, but they were in a bubble, no? And sure, once expensive junk is falling, but that is pretty natural when you don't have a job because the plutocrats moved all the factories over to China.

Looks like the type of deflation where whatever the middle class owns goes down in value, but whatever they need to survive goes up.

A sort of 'Maintain the Illusion of Lying Fiat' (MILF) operation designed to retain the delusional value of the recent bonuses you all paid to the bankers out of whatever FIAT you had left.


Letters to the usual address...



Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:40 | 469180 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

No, as the article says, the chart illustrates that every time M3 y-o-y goes negative, a recession follows. Questioning his accuracy of M3 and recession reporting is fine, but the chart is pretty clear.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 22:46 | 470075 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

If you say so.

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:20 | 468895 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Crap, Nothing But Crap

hooo nothing beats a Tall Glass of Iced Re-al-i-TEA

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 15:51 | 469004 truont
truont's picture

I was advised off-air by the producer that they were operating under a corporate mandate to give the economic news a positive spin, irrespective of how bad it was."

Think bigger.  If this is done at CNBS, what is being done at ABC/NBC/CBS?  What about MSNBC?  Fox?  CNN?


You can only manager perceptions on a mass scale in the short-run.  People are waking up...

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:34 | 469163 Doode
Doode's picture

I think kondratieff cycles describe things pretty well (we are in mid-winter period)- we are probably in for another 7-15 years (depending on where you think previous expansion ended - 2000 for the internet bubble or 2008 for the credit one) of sideways action of paying off the debts (figuring out a plausible substitute) and then we should start real economic expansion again. There is a lot of doom and gloom on one side and unreasonable happiness on the other side, but it seems to be too much of both on each side. Last time WW2 debt was ridiculously high as well and we managed, so I think the world will go on and assuming politicians do not completely blow it things will be ok in about a decade or so. 

Wed, 07/14/2010 - 16:39 | 469177 omi
omi's picture

Important part of M3 is eurodollars. Maybe I'm mistaken, but fed stopped reporting eurodollars in March or May of 2006.

While the theory put forward seems reasonable, I would like to get some technical perspective on the process of eurodollar stats gathering.



Thu, 07/15/2010 - 05:16 | 470463 DrLamer
DrLamer's picture

Web-site  is probably THE ONLY place in internet, where You can hear the truth on all and every important aspect of today's world economy.... and its almost free! (There are a couple of other places, telling the truth, but today I prefer ZH).

Instead of this approach - a couple of Swiss "economic scientists" established a web-site (, where they are ... selling the truth. Do you understand their trick? They received salary for years, bonuses and other consulting money for their "services" , hiding the truth... and now they are trying to SELL THE TRUTH about the world economy again (as they call it, but who knows...) again, second time.

How funny!

Thu, 07/15/2010 - 12:44 | 471280 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture


 "You want the truth? You can't handle the truth!"

What a great line from Jack!

Talk to people. Walk around. Look. Digest what your eyes and ears gather. Take the time and do some volunteer work. If you can't handle the street level dirt, then take a shift on the phone hot lines. All the "woulda, coulda, shoulda", that I'm hearing, is just so much piss into the wind! The result is - you wear it!

Things are not great. Far from it. Plain and simple. People are hurting, and the hurt is climbing the food chain. Ever so slowly, inexorably up the chain, as the societal conditions deteriorate. Real time. Now. It's happening. Go see and hear for yourself. The young people are the ones who will effect change, only it'll be the type of change that won't be welcome. They are angry. Being disenfranchised is no fun, especially when this has happened at the hands of their elders. Baby boomer's are an especially hated group.

With forty million on the 'food dole' and more falling off the unemployment benefit wagon each week, the crises is not only deepening but growing upwards. So, is it any wonder that the propaganda ministry keeps the spin going in an attempt to keep the lid on? Wake up!   

Thu, 07/15/2010 - 20:54 | 472634 honestann
honestann's picture

Thanks to John Williams for his great and ongoing work.  I would add one sad note to the comments about the USSA following the USSR.  One massively important difference will be, the residents of the USSA have and will suffer an enormous drop in liberty as compared to the USSR.

And liberty is what matters most.  Personally, I'd be quite happy to trade every penny in every americans bank account for liberty.  While I'm sure the vast majority of americans would howl bloody murder at such a suggestion, they would be pleasantly shocked at how much better their future would become after a few years at most.

PS: For anyone who thinks the assault on individualism and liberty and trend towards authoritarianism in the USSA is something recent, I wrote a screenplay in 1968 in which the USA changed its name to the USSA... in 2026.  Sadly, even I was optimistic, by decades.

Sat, 08/14/2010 - 10:36 | 521590 herry
herry's picture

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