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Shanghai Silver Trading Volume Surges By 65% Last Month

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the aftermath of the Shanghai exchange's margin hike and trading band increase reported previously, a pair of articles from Bloomberg and the FT looks at the trading of silver in China, where the mostly retail-traded metal continues to be seen as an inflation hedge. From Bloomberg: "Silver trading in Shanghai, which jumped 65 percent in terms of volume last month, will continue to increase on demand for a safe-haven investment, even as the government moves to curb volatility and speculation." And since China's inflationary concerns are unlikely to go away soon, it is only natural that domestic hedging, mixed in with some wild speculation, will continue: "“Chinese investors have piled into silver as one of the
investment choices to hedge against rising inflation,” Shi
Heqing, silver analyst at Beijing Antaike Information
Development Co., said today. The government’s move to increase
margins in an effort to curb volatility won’t affect buying
interest in physical material, Shi said." Sure enough volume has exploded: "Volume on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose to 33,293 metric tons in April, up from 20,206 tons the previous month, according to data from the exchange, the main bourse in China for trading silver." The FT provides another look at the unprecedented surge in silver trading in Shanghai: "At the same time, silver turnover on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China’s main precious metals trading hub spiked, rising 2,837 per cent from the start of this year to a peak of 70m ounces on April 26, according to exchange data. The number of contracts outstanding, an indicator of investor exposure, doubled over the same period." In other words, while in the US it is mostly gold that is a pure inflation hedge at both the retail and institutional level, in China, where runaway inflation is running far higher than here, silver is the primary means to cut inflationary exposure. Therefore, nothing short of a full on deflationary episode in China will do much if anything to have a long-term impact on the price of silver.

More from the FT:

The surge in silver prices has attracted investors the world over, from China and India to the US, where the metal has become the investment of choice for Americans distrustful of the actions of the government and central bank. Silver’s stunning rise has inspired a rash of conspiracy theories as investors and analysts struggle to explain the speed and scale of the rally.

Silver trading in Shanghai remains below the levels in London and New York, the two main global hubs, but its rapid growth means its has become increasingly significant in driving prices, bankers said. Turnover in New York silver futures, the most liquid futures contract in the metal, averaged about 700m ounces a day in April.

“I’m pretty certain it’s the Chinese retail [investment] that is driving this move,” one senior precious metals banker said. “There’s an enormous amount of speculation going on out there, they’ve got the bit between their teeth.”

Ms Tully said Chinese investors cut their positions in silver sharply last week as prices tumbled, before returning to the market early this week and driving a short-lived rebound in prices. “No less than during silver’s swift ascent, [Chinese] agency was very evident in its tumbling descent.”

Whether Chinese buying continues “will be a major determinant of whether silver can finally take out $50”, she added.

Ivan Glasenberg, chief executive of Glencore, the commodity trader that plans to float this month, dismissed the drop as “froth” being flushed out of the market, saying that supply and demand fundamentals remained strong.

Of course all of this may just be a dress rehearsal for the big show. As reported before, on May 18th the Hong Kong Merc will start a domestic version of our own Comex. And if speculative froth was heavy now, just wait until this is launched.

 

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Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:57 | 1271121 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

oh, yeah? well eat this froth:


http://www.thorssoncapital.com/land-portfolio.html

caesium-137-FREE

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:11 | 1271150 Freebird
Freebird's picture

In the event of a sale to any ZH reader of the above Panama land, the vendor hereby warrants payment of a 5% commission , payable within 14 days os settlement to this esteemed website.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:27 | 1271608 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

This email from one of my PM suppliers came this morning:

(We) have gone to great lengths to work with many suppliers which has kept our bullion supply uninterrupted, even when other dealers have been completely without inventory. However, with the "paper" prices of precious metals having been forced down to these levels the market is experiencing a tremendous amount of heavy buying from large investors, both private and institutional. The result has seen much of the remaining bullion removed from the market. This means that Government Mint (Canadian Maples, American Silver Eagles) delays are effecting our supply. The average wait time for products into us is now upwards of 3 weeks on NEW orders processed after today May 12, 2011. This means we are moving our delivery commitment to 4 weeks out.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:47 | 1271699 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That is freaking hilarious.

"There's no shortage, the market is FLOODED" lol.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 13:40 | 1272290 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

rivers of silver.  world wide.  the last price surge sent granny, tweety, and sylverster going thru everything.  they ended up with a kruger and a 1/10 oz. gold eagle.  granny hid the kruger in the cookie jar.  sylvester has his on a gold chain necklace and is doing cat-disco, and tweety?  tweety sez:  i tawt i taw a takedown, BiCHeZ!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:23 | 1271186 nscholten
nscholten's picture

I'm down!-

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:30 | 1271187 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

Chinese investors and man on the street don't listen to 70's Rock.

So Ben's Printing Press will one day be yesterday's telex machine.

Check out Ben B playing bass back in '72 to Mr Fantasy.

http://obamadollar.com/Ben-Bernanke-Mr-Fantasy.jpg

Of course we are near the end of the dollar currency.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_nwbTeIN4Y

Silver bitchezzzzzzzzzz...........

& Kids rapping in High School Calculus class, - Lord this world has gone nuts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Umoo9yTETFs

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:37 | 1271383 Hearst
Hearst's picture

Anyone catch this video yesterday of Jeffrey 100 to 1 Christian interviewed on Bloomberg news?  At the end he calls for $26 Silver by years end.  But durring the interview he gets hammered with questions on why the CME raised the margins the way they did.  A noticeably nervous Christian spews forth more nonsense in response.

 

Funny how this was a headline on Kitco's news reel yesterday, but today it is gone.  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-12/cpm-s-christian-forecasts-silver-at-26-gold-near-1400-video.html

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 15:04 | 1272534 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

Do you think that Christian was baiting the public to buy metal with his claim that the leverage on the comex was 100 to 1?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:23 | 1271188 nscholten
nscholten's picture

I'm down!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:56 | 1271243 He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

He Papa, I won't feed your Malaria mosquitoes, so please,

to keep them healthy, you musst go there yourself.

Have fun!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:56 | 1271123 bushboy
bushboy's picture

Silver Bitchez

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:56 | 1271124 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

de-what?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:00 | 1271126 breezer1
breezer1's picture

if it gets too frothy then there will be the stexnet to calm it down.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:57 | 1271127 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Take delivery of the physical silver and leave the speculators to be raped by the regulators.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:05 | 1271137 depression
depression's picture

CME is margin hiking itself into oblivion.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:02 | 1271138 cossack55
cossack55's picture

The chinese citizen, being a low wage-slave, is virtually restricted to silver as their hedge. Kind of like the US.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:09 | 1271154 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

+7.25hr

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:27 | 1271183 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

The Chinese have a deep rooted affinity and respect for silver. They'll out-buy the US many time over. Yes, they have peasants, butt their middle class to rich ratio is growing and they have but loads of cash. Not only that, if the whim takes them, the may just spend a bit of petty cash in the form of reserves, clandestinely, announcing their purchases on some Western holiday.

Silver bells, Silver bells.....

Dum dum de dum

de da dum dum

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 11:24 | 1271839 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

This is one of the main reasons to buy silver. When the Chinese started selling silver to their people through the banks it was a game changer. The trolls, of course, ignore this.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:20 | 1271172 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

But how do you say,

"Take delivery of the physical silver and leave the speculators to be raped by the regulators. BITCHEZ!"

In Chinese?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:57 | 1271234 WakeyWakey
WakeyWakey's picture

had to edit this as comments cannot cope with chinese text so visit this link instead.

http://translate.google.com/#en|zh-TW|Take%20delivery%20of%20the%20physical%20silver%20and%20leave%20the%20speculators%20to%20be%20raped%20by%20the%20regulators.%20BITCHEZ

And for a good laugh listen to both the english and chinese versions :)

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:32 | 1271376 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Hilarious!  Makes me want to play around with xtranormal today.  Not good on a work day.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:58 | 1271129 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

I'm a silverbitch. 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:58 | 1271130 6_7_42
6_7_42's picture

Chinese silver, bitchez!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:01 | 1271131 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Shanghai Gold Exchange lowered the silver margin today. Because according to its rules, if the silver price does close limit up or down, the margin hike of yesterday will be unwound. So not everything is related to conspiracy.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:16 | 1271168 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Funny how the trolls were telling us all that on the one hand the US exchanges were acting normally and fairly, but on the other hand that the Chinese were "against us".  Funny how a group of people can be so very exactly 180 degrees wrong.  The Chinese exchanges ARE fair, and ours are corrupt as shit.

The CME has reduced silver margins exactly ONCE in the last year.  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-margin-hike-4th-and-5th-charting-pa...

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:55 | 1271237 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

The CME has reduced silver margins exactly ONCE in the last year. 

Mustn't have been enough volatility in the market.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 14:39 | 1274477 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

The COMEX is corrupt, but this doesn't mean that the Chinese don't manipulate things to their advantage. They just have different goals (like going from 2% gold reserves to more than 70%). Artificially low prices are something that benefits them tremendously.

Chinese pretty much invented corruption. They're actually a lot better at it (and their society is much more tolerant of it).

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:34 | 1271382 Gunther
Gunther's picture

In other words, they follow their publicised rules as it should be.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:02 | 1271132 London Dude Trader
London Dude Trader's picture

Yeah right, an excellent inflation hedge for the morons that bought at $45 and above.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:03 | 1271240 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Wow. Sharp as a railway line today, mate. I ran out to my stash and nope..... it was still all there.

Just wondering, observant as you are, have you ever considered the following?:

 

Adam Smith, (a real economist); Wealth of Nations.

Like an impoverished spendthrift,

whose pressing occasions will not allow him to wait

for regular payment of his revenue,

the state is in the constant practice of borrowing of its own factors and agents, and

of paying interest for the use of its own money.


 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:02 | 1271134 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

O

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:08 | 1271136 Construct
Construct's picture

It is do or die time. This is it for Silver. Now is the time to prove if you will break lose and create the 'Silver standard' in the market like gold has. The gold silver ratio should go down to 10.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:10 | 1271157 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

The Chinese know that once QE3 is announced they will nlt see these prices for gold and silver again. What use those trillions of paper called US Dollars if they dont use them now.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 15:13 | 1272544 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

The use from those trillions in paper provide a revenue stream in interest payments.  The dollar is a rotten egg for sure but since the Chinese economy is dependent on exports to the US they would shoot themselves in the foot if they deliberately tanked the dollar.  It is a standoff of sorts. 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:17 | 1273041 boricuadigm-shift
boricuadigm-shift's picture

Not if they develop their own economy... and that is their plan!  3-5 years= USD life expectancy.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:05 | 1271139 youngman
youngman's picture

You will see the Chinese buying all of our dips....hell they probably caused them with their computer jockeys....they are tired of paper...theirs and/or ours....silver for the people and I think the government is buying gold...will reign supreme....I also see the new exchange as a huge sucesss.....they no longer trust the USA...I don´t either and we know we can´t trust the EU guys either...if it gets to desperate...they lie....and its desperate out there..just listen to Geitner and Bernanke....if we don´t raise the debt limit...the world will end...

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:10 | 1271147 Construct
Construct's picture
China is the worlds most powerful producer economy but this is not reflected with their puny little 1000 tons of gold stash. They need to vacuum the market for gold and silver in order to reflect their real power. And this dip is an excellent opportunity for them to do so.
Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:21 | 1271169 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Um China IS the #1 gold producer in the world and are racing with production in huge mines like in South Africa and buying on the world market to boot. That little 1000 number you read is most likey sandbaged unti they want the world to know much they really have. Thats just how the commies roll mate.They are encouraging their citizens to buy silver as they do not have many good silver deposits. Now if that does not make you go Hmmmm. I laugh my self silly watching these Comex and London scum thinking that they are still in control of the prices. It amazes me how exchanges who do not have any metal think that they are going to determine price going forward.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:25 | 1271184 Construct
Construct's picture

They managed to break silvers neck in one week though (five margin hikes, -35% fall silver prices)

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:30 | 1271193 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Yes our paranoid idiots are trying to suppress the prices to make it even easier for them. Broke its neck? Nah, your timeline is to American, Try to think like tthe oldest civiliation in the world. On a long enough timeline..............................

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:33 | 1271200 Construct
Construct's picture

In a way I suspect these prices might be 'cemented' and 'stronger' now with all 'weak' hands out of the game and all the 'leveraged' players wiped out.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:39 | 1271207 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hmm, you think that, do you, Mr. 3 weeks 1 day?

Should we all sell our silver?

lol

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:41 | 1271218 Construct
Construct's picture

You are free to buy and sell as you wish. I have read ZH for almost 2 years on a daily basis. I just registered to be able to comment 3 weeks ago.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:01 | 1271249 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

There's seniority in fight club? Who'd a thunk?

Lol

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:05 | 1271260 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No seniority.  But no fighting with sock puppets on every appendage either.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:10 | 1271274 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Fuck you Mosely. I was starting to think of myself as someone of importance and then you burst my bubble. Bastard!!!!!!!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:15 | 1271563 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, I wouldn't think of it that way.  You are the center of a whole universe.  Your star may or may not shine brightly in those of others, but you are always the center of your own.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:40 | 1271214 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Yes its cash and carry now. Which will make for a slower, steadly more dependable rise. But do not ever underestimate the Cartel. This is a game for all the marbles as everyone in the world knows the days for the dollars reserve currency status are numbered. Big parts of the world are looking for an alternative. This is where the race for Gold and silver reserves by Russia,China,Mexico,Netherlands or anybody else who plans to be a part of the next generation of world currencies comes from. These guys are not done with thier cheap shots or shenanagins as their desperation builds. 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:50 | 1271227 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

They managed to break silvers neck in one week though (five margin hikes, -35% fall silver prices)

Actually, where physical metal is exchanged between real people, it's more like transitory a 8% dip:  http://www.24hgold.com/english/buy_sell_silver_coins.aspx?co_id=0 

Certainly, you are not taking the manipulated crimex prices to be the actual market price of physical silver.  That would be a False Construct.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:07 | 1271267 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Nice link.  Thanks.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:02 | 1271500 silver140
silver140's picture

That link made my day. Thanks

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:29 | 1271363 fuu
fuu's picture

No they managed to castrate paper silver holders. All paper holders will be castrated. Have you not been paying attention?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 15:17 | 1272558 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

The margin hikes and the added paper raid on the comex by the banksters provided the extra leverage during profit taking to have a dramatic impact.  It is still an illusion.  I will reload again and again on the way down as I did reload on the way up.  I don't have the computing skills to call the top or bottom of a market.  That is why I hold my course steady and acquire metal precipitously every payday.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:07 | 1271143 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

But the silver price has gone down 20%+ recently. This means there is a lack of demand. These 'free' markets that are based purely on supply and demand say so, and you'd be a fool, liar and terrorist to think or say otherwise.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:07 | 1271144 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Today I ordered some nice silver eagles here with proaurum for ~30 € each.

Plus 2 Britannias, with the new design that is a bit more minimalistic than the old one which i liked a lot.

 

Looks like the "market" 's bottoming out, Randolph.

I say let's buy, now. :-)

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:09 | 1271151 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

only takes $5 to take out of the ground, lmao

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:16 | 1271166 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

I lived in Honduras in the early 1980's. I met some Americans who came in with pans for panning gold. They went up in the remote mountains, hired [and taught] Indio women how to pan for gold. They supplied the pans, the women did the work for $1 US a day [in Limpiras, at that time 2 Limpiras = 1 US FRN]. They told me they averaged $10 worth of gold per woman. They also told me once they stopped paying and took the pans back, the women stopped panning for gold.

So in this case, it only took $1 to take it out of the stream. 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:18 | 1271174 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Well, $50 an oz, assuming an average gold price of $500.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:11 | 1271292 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

So that would be a 10 to 1 GSR if silver costs $5 to dig out of the ground. BTW, thanks for doing the math.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:20 | 1271173 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Why not do a deal with the mines! We can work 8 hours a day , get paid at minimum wages and use half our daily wages to acquire silver at $5 an ounce. Effectively free labor for the mines.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:08 | 1271149 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Anyone know how much of physical deliveries took place at end of settlement

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 13:53 | 1272312 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

1 gold contract 100 oz/  377 for may.

2 silver contracts 5,000oz/  417 for may.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 13:54 | 1272313 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

here are the crimex banksterz' inventories as of yest:  DJ Comex Gold And Silver Warehouse Stocks-May 12

may 25:  options expire

may 26: last trading day for may contracts

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:14 | 1271159 Old. No. 7
Old. No. 7's picture

I'd like to personally thank the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for gunning the price of silver over 300% in the last two years. With the XAU/gold ratio @ 7.68 and the spread between real metal and blomex pricing going massive, this charade has been exposed for all but the most deluded.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 11:36 | 1271864 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

You look at a company like AEM or Kinross and just shake your head. The public apparently has no idea what these companies are worth with gold north of $1500. Mutual funds probably still see them as "too risky" to invest in (conditioning, brainwashing). And then the bullion banks short the shit out of these while telling everyone it's a legitimate "hedge"? Right, sure it is.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:00 | 1271161 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

5 margin hikes by CME in one week. 

Memo from Blythe to CME board of Directors: Should this give rise to a conspiracy theory, we can always deny it in the MSM. We will claim that volitility was the problem, not demand.

Myth buster press to the rescue, press release accepted at face value. Nothing to investgate here folks. Move along now. Good journos, good journos. Fetch. Sit. Roll over. 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:13 | 1271162 silver4me
silver4me's picture

I will be one those idiots buying at 45+. I don't have all the PM's I want yet. Just a working stiff here so I buy as I can. When its $100 the purchases at 42, 45 whats the difference. I will go down in what I believe in if I'm wrong. No big deal there goes my fancy new car that woulda been also worthless 15 years from now.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:18 | 1271170 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I'm expecting that the transition from safe bond investing (while central planners destroy value) to hard asset flight to safety, to both preserve purchasing power and avoid the many ways they will tax paper hard assets, will cause the continued march higher in price of phsical until one day all transactions are done with real money, outside of collapsed government controls.. and if bond money ever starts flowing into the pm market you better be positioned in front of it.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:23 | 1271182 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

Which brokers are offering HongKong futures trading?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:33 | 1271202 ACompleto
ACompleto's picture

What's wrong with Turd's blog? looks like he lost some data.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:07 | 1271275 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

probably something to do with implementing the new one.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:42 | 1271424 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Must be those 2 guys who have been making asshole comments on his blog. Hacking in.

Must be Blythe's minions at work

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:56 | 1271468 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Blogger.com looks to have suffered a major meltdown last night.

The people I read there has lost their posts from yesterday -- turd, norcini, jesse, etc.  Readers cannot post comments either.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:59 | 1271242 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

trading the equivalent of a years global production of silver (700 million ozs) everyday and more than 10 times the worlds global production of gold each month.   Yeah... sounds like the same paper scam that Jeffrey Christian explained so well at the CFTC.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:03 | 1271253 waldocktrades
waldocktrades's picture

The notion that raising margins forces out the speculators or that the speculators are responsible for silver's volatility is HOGWASH.

http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com/2011/05/13/small-speculators--...

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:06 | 1271271 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Please, enlighten us as to the true cause then.

Not sure I want to give you a click yet.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:35 | 1271373 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

500 wanna be Blythes line up each day with a $30k trading account. Margin for one SI futures contract circa $14k. Margin requirements total how much now, $22k or so? And that doesn't affect a trading account, right? Now, lets look at the big boys. They were losing billions going short, each dollar rise. You reckon they weren't bleeding?  The CME have a few good buddies over at the COMEX who needed a favor.

Now if it affects them to the point where they change the margin rates to affect their accounts favorably, then the opposite side of the trade is going to be adversely affected in his account. It's the little guy who is run over as they cant absorb the losses on thin account balances after the hikes.

In anothe arena, even sovereign countries accounts are affected;

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-margin-hike-time-portuguese-bond

I junked you straight up.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:59 | 1271762 streetman
streetman's picture

You are correct, waldock, of course, since as long as initial and maintenance margins are the same for longs and shorts, and a futures contract is by definition zero sum.  But you also can see why we see the market response to margin increases as pretty predictably in favor of stronger hands (shorts?), and member/hedge (big guy) initial margins are lower than spec (little guy) initial margins.  I'm not in the conspiracy theory camp (yet), but the margins on silver do look crazy relative to other PMs, even considering the  volatility/open interest/volume formula they use.  Raising margins the number of times they did, with each raise in close proximity (twice, effectively, in one day) doesn't look like responsible sponsorship of SI on the CME Group's part, to say the least.  We are all schooled in history here, and we are aware that manipulation did occur in 1980, and I don't mean the Hunts.

In other words, I may be paranoid, but that doesn't mean they're not out to get me... 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 13:15 | 1272203 Atlas Shrieked
Atlas Shrieked's picture

I don't play the CRIMEX because: 1) the hedgers/members have deeper pockets 2) their lower minimum performance bond requirements given them an even bigger advantage.  Besides, are they really hedging at all times?  Or are they looking to whipsaw joe dumbfuck retail investor who guessed right and still got wiped out?

It's analogous to the Bernie Madoff exemption in equities.  It is not the big boys who need the exemptions or the special privileges.  Some of us aren't as obtuse as you desire.  You're junked.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:14 | 1271290 Gunther
Gunther's picture

Thet can trade their silver bars as often as they want. Much more important is physical delivery. What about that?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:48 | 1271446 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Didn't I see this on Disney Saturday morning with my kids. 

"KimPossible and the Case of the Shanghai'd Silver"

Correction, it was on the Comex Cartoon Network - A Viacomex Company 

http://tradewithdave.com/?p=6346

Dave Harrison

www.tradewithdave.com

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 12:36 | 1272077 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

And China has a long long history of using Silver as money - so they are not unfamiliar to this metal.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:08 | 1272755 HastyP
HastyP's picture

Look what I got in my email.  Phys is running out.

 

SilverGoldBull.com Market Update

In an effort to keep our clients aware of current market conditions reflecting physical bullion we are putting out an update!

Silver Gold Bull has gone to great lengths to work with many suppliers which has kept our bullion supply uninterrupted, even when other dealers have been completely without inventory. However, with the "paper" prices of precious metals having been forced down to these levels the market is experiencing a tremendous amount of heavy buying from large investors, both private and institutional. The result has seen much of the remaining bullion removed from the market. This means that Government Mint (Canadian Maples, American Silver Eagles) delays are effecting our supply. The average wait time for products into us is now upwards of 3 weeks on NEW orders processed after today May 12, 2011. This means we are moving our delivery commitment to 4 weeks out. This is a safety mechanism to prevent frustrations of our clients waiting for delivery of the goods… we would rather be open and up front then to incur damage to our strong relationships that we have built with our customers.

As market developments continue, we will respond with our customers best interest in mind. Please remember to join us on Facebook and use the client feedback opportunity on our site. We look forward to our continued growth together.

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