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Shipping News – Pirate Update
The Somalian pirates seized another big ship the other day. This time it
was a large oil tanker. I spoke with a friend who owns ships and lives
in Athens about the latest attack. He provided some interesting
information. My notes from the conversation:
The seized tanker is owned by a large and successful family owned Greek
shipping company. Pirates have hit Greek ships before, but this is the
largest ship to be captured. There is $200mm worth of crude on board.
The vessel is worth $100mm – 200mm. There was a crew of 25 of which
eight were Greeks, most of whom were officers.
The Greek shipping world is PISSED at this one. The combination of the
money and the fact that Greek crew members are involved makes this a
very big deal.
I got a status on the bigger picture in pirate land:
There are currently 20 ships of all sizes and uses currently be held by
Somali pirates. There are approximately 700 prisoners being held. It
generally takes two to three months to negotiate and pay a ransom. My
guy estimated that in the past year nearly $300mm in ransom has been
paid to pirates.
There have been attempts to thwart the pirates but they are (obviously)
not working. NATO has warships in the region as does the United States.
The problem appears to be the “rules of engagement”. The Western powers
have the ability to stop and search suspected pirate ships. But when the
pirates see them coming they dump their arms overboard. Therefore they
are released as only armed ships and crews can be seized and taken out
of commission. The pirates are well aware of these rules.
This part I found very interesting:
The Chinese Navy has a large presence in the region. Rather than just
sail around looking for pirates the Chinese are creating large convoys
of ships headed for China. The Chinese Navy is escorting these ships
through troubled waters. Very few ships destined for China have been
attacked as a result. Of interest is that the Chinese are now offering
to escort non-Chinese vessels to safe waters (for a large fee).
The problem with the convoy approach is that it is very expensive. Ships
have to wait to embark until a large enough convoy has been formed.
Time is money in shipping. In addition, there is the very large expense
of the Chinese navy ships and their crews. Apparently China Inc. is
willing to foot the bill as they don’t want to be in the difficult
position of losing a ship and then have to send military forces (or big
money) to retrieve it. Korean special Ops did retrieve a seized ship
last year, but in the process several crew members were killed and the
ship in question suffered significant damage.
Once the pirates seize a ship at sea they have won. The
ships/cargos/crew are far too valuable to risk with military operations.
It is much “cheaper” to pay a $30mm ransom than to risk a $300mm loss.
The owners/lenders/insurers all understand these facts. So do the
pirates.
Therefore the only “solution” to the pirate problem is to send in
troops. Get boots on the ground, find the pirates and wipe them out. But
the question is, "whose boots"? There are only two possibilities.
The US has 60,000 Special Forces that are technically available for
combat operations. These troops are battled tested and are a formidable
force. They would be more than up to the task of taking on the pirates.
But our Special Forces are already overextended after so many years in
Iraq and Afghanistan. The ‘excess force’ doctrine requires that if the
US commits troops it’s done so in overwhelming numbers. We do not have
those “overwhelming” numbers at the moment.
The other alternative is NATO. The Brits, Germans, French all have
highly trained forces that would be up to the job. NATO has the large
amphibious capability that is required. But the thinking is that NATO
does not have as much at stake given the sea routes. And therefore they
are unlikely to commit troops either.
It would appear as if the status quo has to continue based on this. But
my friend thinks that something must come relatively soon whether the US
or NATO likes it or not. His reasoning:
What are the pirates doing with $300mm a year of cash income? Buying
better, faster attack boats. They are buying more and more sophisticated
military equipment including advanced weapons systems and
communications equipment. They are hiring more pirates. With each ship
they seize they get stronger. This simply can’t be allowed to happen for
much longer is the thinking.
There are two very big wild cards in this story. Either of them could tip the balance and force either NATO the US or combined forces to act in the near future:
The route to Europe for shipping is the Suez Canal. Should things
develop in Egypt such that the canal is either closed or perceived to be
unsafe then thousands of additional ships will be forced to sail in
Somali waters to get to Europe. The pirates would love that. More ships,
more opportunity.
The final consideration is what is happening within Somalia. There is a
group called al Shaabab. They are Muslim extremists. They too are
highly armed. They have been fighting with the Somali pirates. Al-
Shaabab wants to take over the job the pirates are doing. They want the
money and the power that comes from pirating ships.
The concern is that al Shaabab will succeed. If they do they will be in
even more powerful menace than the current pirates. Even worse, they are
Muslim. The US and NATO simply cannot put forces against Muslims at
this time. That would be very bad global politics.
So there are two time fuses that could force military action. If the
Suez is closed or if al Shaabab gets aggressive then force will be
required. The thinking from Athens is that either or both of the
conditions will be met in the not too distant future. Military action is not far off.
»
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Sorry to be off topic, and I probably deserve to be junked, but I had to post this....
Should we get the headline that the Swiss have acted against another leader I would recommend getting long physical gold, fast. If hot money is not safe in a Swiss account it will go into physical gold.
http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/01/tunisiaswiss-banksgold-whats-next.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/11/mubaraks-assets-frozen-switzerland_n_822003.html
good inclusion, bruce B da man†
"Therefore the only “solution” to the pirate problem is to send in troops."
Wouldn't addressing the problems that created the need for pirating in the first place be a better "solution" to the problem? I guess since it wouldn't be in our best interest, and since it would instead improve the lives of those evil, undeserving "pirates", there's no use in even considering the idea... this world is f**ked up
Wow. No kidding?
How about we get Al Gore to go over there, sit everyone down over some sushi and they can discuss things. All their grievances are on the table. If nothing else, he can keep them all occupied instead of riding the high seas.
Seriously? Now the pirates may have legitimate beefs that should be heard and settled? Did it ever occur to you, Jimmy, that some people are just plain criminals and should be treated as such?
The world has become so fukn Pussified that merchant ships no longer are allowed to have guns (nice big ones) installed and manned....why?
If a pirate ship comes up zooming, a nice big gun shooting 3000rnds per minute could be sued to cut the fukn pussy pirates like chop suey...
Its either that, or ships must do the Convoy/Escort thing....which is more expensive?
Bitchezz!
Hey Bruce,
Please ask your Greek friend what flag flies on the back of his ships? I'll bet it is not Greek. I will lay odds it is Liberia, Panama, Cyprus, Malta, Vanuatu or some other Flag of Convenience. Tell the Greeks to get these countries to protect their ships, since this is where they are registered. Get their Navies to protect you since that's where you pay your registry fees.
The ship that was taken yesterday was a Greek flagged ship. The ship is ownd by the Lemos family who are very large owners of ships. Most of their ships fly Greek flags.
Nobody ever brings this shit up when they talk about 'globalization' of trade, do they?
Opportunity cost: it's a mother.
Nuke Somalia. Problem solved.
Next?
I say we put our politicians on a tanker and send it through the Suez Canal. Same rules - no weapons and no military escort.
Keep it sporting, give them each a rock ...
Tha USSA's fucking political correctness is 99% of the problems in the world today. NUKE the mother fuckers! Geeeesh, and send ALL of Americas politicos over there first.....and by the way, THEY WOULDN'T BE THE FIRST "CHERRY" THE GOOD OLE USA HAS BUSTED WITH THE ATOM!!!!!
This still confuses me...
What is the concrete threat -- that the pirates are going to destroy the entire contents of the ship and the ship itself if they don't get what they want?
Is it always oil (flammable) or do they threaten take a piss on whatever the contents are, rendering the goods valueless? </sarc>
Do they threaten to stay on the ship in perpetuity?
Is it truly unfeasible to make a ship that the average pirate would consider pointless attempting to board?
Is it just me?
The big threat is the lives of the crew.
All manner of ships and all manner of cargos have been sieized, not just flamable stuff.
Most ships are released after a few months provided they pay the agreed upon ransom.
I don't understand why we don't sink every skiff that is 200 miles offshore. That is a clear sign of piracy. When the pirates quit coming back home the piracy will end eventually. Sink every damn skiff and sink all the mother ships when found. If they manage to swim back fine. If not, no loss really.
That makes way too much sense.
Well, if we want to do this cheaply or even at no cost the idea has to be to get the Somalians themselves to do it. Towards this end simply withdraw the UN and NGO aid groups and let General Famine wage the war. The Somalians can be told General Famine will declare a ceasefire when the pirates are dead.
<dupe>
Would you be so kind as to turn on your brothers and wipe out the only lucrative and growing business your country has? Please?
The use of mercs would be far simpler. And cheaper. It's a wonder that Blackwater (Xe) isn't doing those kinds of special ops yet for as much as we "give" them every year.
US troops are a bad idea. Whenever they are withdrawn a large component of the nation they operated in follow them back to the US. Somalians have shown themselves to be extremely unproductive immigrants. Cheaper to let the shipowners pay the ransoms rather than load tens or hundreds of thousands of welfare recipients on various state governments.
just sink the skiffs and mother ships. Doesn't matter if they have thrown their arms overboard.
Bruce you know that those ships are forced to be unarmed right?
Might as well be going though a bad part of town wearing a sandwich board "Rich unarmed man. Come and get it!".
If one advertises money and being unarmed it's only natural that desperate people will go a plundering. As you point out there is little they have to fear. Now if those crews were armed that is a different story entirely. Turns out most criminals don't like their prey fighting back.
@ Shameful,
At this point, screw the rules. As mentioned above by various, arming the crew with a handful (at most) of .50 caliber machine guns and a few AKs or M-16s will solve the problem.
@ Bruce, I am kind of surprised that the Greeks have not already armed their ships...
You are so correct. Mount four 50 calibers....two forward and two aft, port and starboard.... with four trained crew to man them when needed. They don't even have to shoot straight. The noise alone will scare any human. I suppose it makes too much sense.
The lawyer comments are strange. Wasn't long ago that any naval captain who caught pirates could execute them on the spot, no legal issues. Russian and Korean military forces seem to still have the same view, and arguably the US Navy has also acted that way.
Apart from the interesting comment about Somalis being driven to piracy by losing their ability to fish, it seems that some strategic military action against all of the pirate bases could fix the problem for quite a while. And so could reversing the rules of engagement and treating any Somali vessel as presumed pirates unless it was clearly engaged in some lawful operation and properly equipped and staffed for that same operation.
I'm not sure that the kind of centuries-old, well precedented international common law regarding piracy on the high seas to which you are referring is currently and officially superseded by any other authority.
who cares?
Well for one - any ship owner who is losing property to pirates and is also feeling at least some pressure to not take security measures into his own hands.
Executive Outcomes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Outcomes
I don't think a "boots on the ground" operation will work simply because the restrictive rules of engagement for those guys are just as bad (or worse) than whatever is slowing the navy down (We know the Brits won't lift a finger but I wouldn't want to taunt the Chinese navy from a rubber boat!).
Look at the U.S. record of actually achieving victory in military conflicts since WWII - pretty weak. Almost(for which there really is no substitute for) all failures in that bullshit. I think Obama is actually on record deploring the very idea of military victory. Hell, all the pirates have to do to thwart "boots on the ground" is go hide in a mosque and start uploading videos to youtube.
The most successful military action we've had in this context is the Kosovo War of '98-'99 under Clinton. 100% targeted air strikes basically. It's not as messy from a rules of engagement perspective and it can be very effective in terms of getting from point A to point B. Hearts and minds or not, rubble don't make trouble. Plus it's easy to leave because you're never really there in the first place.
Imagine if we had used that template in Iraq or Afghanistan.
I'm not warmongering here but if you have a problem and it has been determined by the right authorities that there is ample justification to fix it with military force (Kosovo, maybe Somalian piracy)...do it right or not at all.
Took care of the Barbary pirates -
Something about halls of Tripoli in the Marinr hymn, I think.
Another story about the pirates, but NO MENTION of the fact that Somalia has been TURNED IN TO A TOXIC WASTE DUMP.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2008/10/2008109174223218644.html
Mamma Mia!!! You-a say-a my boy Tony be involved in the toxic waste-a dumpin business??? He jus-a honest, hard working biziness man like a Wall Street Banker! An-a we know ah they are, er, ah, well-a, I'll-a get-a back to you-a later on that-a.
excellent story thanks for sharing. i have some interesting stories regarding china's military and imperialism on my blog.
http://nakedempire.wordpress.com/
Arm each ship with a half dozen rocket propelled grenade launchers and a hundred grenades, a dozen LAW rockets, 10 .50 BMG with twenty thousand rounds, and arm each crew member with a semi automatic 7.62. That ought to be enough to discourage a bunch of Somalis in an open boat with out-board motors.
Exactly! Give me a break. Several ships armed with nothing more than a few AR-15s and a couple .45 sidearms have repelled attacks. Freakin' 6 guys have to SCALE the verticle side of a ship in pitching seas. You could drop rocks on their heads, for God's sake.
No, there is more to this story. I don't know what it is but put 4 armed guys on each ship and you're done. Slightly cheaper than setting up and entire fucking convoy. Lame.
Think of 1000 feet long going at very slow speed with very low free board. Now think that this happens in the dad of night. There would only be two crew members on watch. What you propose is not as easy as you think.
Think of 1000 feet long going at very slow speed with very low free board. Now think that this happens in the dad of night. There would only be two crew members on watch. What you propose is not as easy as you think.
Think of 1000 feet long going at very slow speed with very low free board. Now think that this happens in the dad of night. There would only be two crew members on watch. What you propose is not as easy as you think.
bruce, three and counting. i like the way you think and write, comprehendo?
Stop making sense. We have another continent to invade.
Maybe if we sacrificed The Bernank to Poseidon the piracy would stop. And if that doesn't work, send in Steven Segall.
Never underestimate the cook.
So, I suppose if the Somalis were smart, they would just say..."We are the legitimate government of Somalia. You are in our territorial waters, and you are not paying your passage fee, which is (fill in the blank). Your ship is therefore impounded until the fee is paid."
And then, because they would be no different from, say, the US, everybody would be happy.
One man's pirate is another man's border-security (IRS, customs, call him whatever you wish) agent.
Uh, no.
Might want to read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the...
Note that Somalia "is" a signatory to this treaty (though that government isn't in much control right now).
24nm offshore, free passage, no ifs/ands/buts.
Does that include the ocean offshore Israel?
Wait a second, let's back up a bit: define 'pirate'...
To solve the Somalian problem give them more fish. They lost their fishing rights and thus became pirates. Its all those Japanese 'sushi' ship trawlers since twenty years that have created the problem. Doesn't make sense to support verbally freedom in Cairo and actively slavery in Somalia. Just one of those american riddles that John Foster Dulles and old Allen his kid brother left the world when they declared third world 'off limits' to democracy...You're either for us or against us...was their war cry...No third way possible...Now we have military regimes, pirates and extremists all over the place...the chickens have come home to roost...Why did those idiots take that original route?..."Ask Nikita K and the Aswan dam" they would say...so its out of frying pan into the fire for the third world...back to Cairo we go! Brave New world?
They are pirates.
Do you think fishing has anything to do with the decision to go into piracy? Besides...what fishing? There isn't anything left in the ocean. Want a point of reference, go look up Cod fishing in the North Atlantic.
Out of curiosity, what is that mystery fish that they serve at McD's?