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Shipping News – Pirate Update
The Somalian pirates seized another big ship the other day. This time it
was a large oil tanker. I spoke with a friend who owns ships and lives
in Athens about the latest attack. He provided some interesting
information. My notes from the conversation:
The seized tanker is owned by a large and successful family owned Greek
shipping company. Pirates have hit Greek ships before, but this is the
largest ship to be captured. There is $200mm worth of crude on board.
The vessel is worth $100mm – 200mm. There was a crew of 25 of which
eight were Greeks, most of whom were officers.
The Greek shipping world is PISSED at this one. The combination of the
money and the fact that Greek crew members are involved makes this a
very big deal.
I got a status on the bigger picture in pirate land:
There are currently 20 ships of all sizes and uses currently be held by
Somali pirates. There are approximately 700 prisoners being held. It
generally takes two to three months to negotiate and pay a ransom. My
guy estimated that in the past year nearly $300mm in ransom has been
paid to pirates.
There have been attempts to thwart the pirates but they are (obviously)
not working. NATO has warships in the region as does the United States.
The problem appears to be the “rules of engagement”. The Western powers
have the ability to stop and search suspected pirate ships. But when the
pirates see them coming they dump their arms overboard. Therefore they
are released as only armed ships and crews can be seized and taken out
of commission. The pirates are well aware of these rules.
This part I found very interesting:
The Chinese Navy has a large presence in the region. Rather than just
sail around looking for pirates the Chinese are creating large convoys
of ships headed for China. The Chinese Navy is escorting these ships
through troubled waters. Very few ships destined for China have been
attacked as a result. Of interest is that the Chinese are now offering
to escort non-Chinese vessels to safe waters (for a large fee).
The problem with the convoy approach is that it is very expensive. Ships
have to wait to embark until a large enough convoy has been formed.
Time is money in shipping. In addition, there is the very large expense
of the Chinese navy ships and their crews. Apparently China Inc. is
willing to foot the bill as they don’t want to be in the difficult
position of losing a ship and then have to send military forces (or big
money) to retrieve it. Korean special Ops did retrieve a seized ship
last year, but in the process several crew members were killed and the
ship in question suffered significant damage.
Once the pirates seize a ship at sea they have won. The
ships/cargos/crew are far too valuable to risk with military operations.
It is much “cheaper” to pay a $30mm ransom than to risk a $300mm loss.
The owners/lenders/insurers all understand these facts. So do the
pirates.
Therefore the only “solution” to the pirate problem is to send in
troops. Get boots on the ground, find the pirates and wipe them out. But
the question is, "whose boots"? There are only two possibilities.
The US has 60,000 Special Forces that are technically available for
combat operations. These troops are battled tested and are a formidable
force. They would be more than up to the task of taking on the pirates.
But our Special Forces are already overextended after so many years in
Iraq and Afghanistan. The ‘excess force’ doctrine requires that if the
US commits troops it’s done so in overwhelming numbers. We do not have
those “overwhelming” numbers at the moment.
The other alternative is NATO. The Brits, Germans, French all have
highly trained forces that would be up to the job. NATO has the large
amphibious capability that is required. But the thinking is that NATO
does not have as much at stake given the sea routes. And therefore they
are unlikely to commit troops either.
It would appear as if the status quo has to continue based on this. But
my friend thinks that something must come relatively soon whether the US
or NATO likes it or not. His reasoning:
What are the pirates doing with $300mm a year of cash income? Buying
better, faster attack boats. They are buying more and more sophisticated
military equipment including advanced weapons systems and
communications equipment. They are hiring more pirates. With each ship
they seize they get stronger. This simply can’t be allowed to happen for
much longer is the thinking.
There are two very big wild cards in this story. Either of them could tip the balance and force either NATO the US or combined forces to act in the near future:
The route to Europe for shipping is the Suez Canal. Should things
develop in Egypt such that the canal is either closed or perceived to be
unsafe then thousands of additional ships will be forced to sail in
Somali waters to get to Europe. The pirates would love that. More ships,
more opportunity.
The final consideration is what is happening within Somalia. There is a
group called al Shaabab. They are Muslim extremists. They too are
highly armed. They have been fighting with the Somali pirates. Al-
Shaabab wants to take over the job the pirates are doing. They want the
money and the power that comes from pirating ships.
The concern is that al Shaabab will succeed. If they do they will be in
even more powerful menace than the current pirates. Even worse, they are
Muslim. The US and NATO simply cannot put forces against Muslims at
this time. That would be very bad global politics.
So there are two time fuses that could force military action. If the
Suez is closed or if al Shaabab gets aggressive then force will be
required. The thinking from Athens is that either or both of the
conditions will be met in the not too distant future. Military action is not far off.
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Out of curiosity, what is that mystery fish that they serve at McD's?
"... Its all those Japanese 'sushi' ship trawlers..."
Finally, FINALLY, somebody comes forward and tells us the truth!
OH, thank God and Allah and The Great Ghu!
Station a group of special ops on each ship. Warn the pirates that if they get withing 500 yards of the vessel it's sayonara for them. If they don't comply, put them on the sea floor.
Do this for a year or two and the Somali's will find a new way to steal money. Perhaps they will get into banking.
Requires weapons and personnel. Not cheap but certainly worth it for the larger ships. I would think that a special forces team could be taken on board at Suez and air lifted off after they were out of the danger zone.
Expensive, but I would think less costly than paying ransom.
Yeah cuz thanks to the world turning their coast into a toxic waste dump their old method of living by fishing is definitely out.
"Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day. Show a man how to bank and he'll steal enough fish to eat for a lifetime."
Don´t agree about Suez canal.
If they go around the Cape of Good Hope they can avoid Somalia by three thousand miles.
Open Suez canal is the ONLY reason pirates have such good opportunities.
Your're right that transit around Cape allows to stand off Somaila by considerable distances. However, I point to multiple recent captures occuring right off mouth of Persian Gulf. Plus mid Indian Ocean.
Your're right that transit around Cape allows to stand off Smaili by considerable distances. However, I point multiple recent captures occuring right mouth of Persian Gulf. Olus mid Indian Ocean.
maybe they can pay the ransom in Greek bonds?
Really? That should be welcome news to the residents of Iraq, A-stan, P-stan, etc...
Seriously, now... They don't give a fuck what anybody cares. They'll deploy anywhere the bankers think is in their interest.
In fact, they are probably salivating at the prospect of another "legitimate" Muslim extremist threat to justify further expansion.
Kramer vs Kramer. Aliens vs Predator. Terrorists vs Pirates.
Let shaabab and pirates fight it out - let'em kill as many of their own as possible. only then NATO should go in. this is no Rwanda. it doesn't look like another genocide. UN/NATO/developed nations are under no moral obligation to stop the fight between the pirates and the terrorists.
Place special ops on each ship, as part of their r&r. Getting sun on the deck of a large ship and smelling the sea breeze is a picnic compared to rumaging through mud shacks w/ night vision goggles and guns a blazin. No sand, 3 hots and a cot, very nice. Since these guys now have upgraded to .338 lapua for long range shots, they should very well be able to stand any speed boats off. If pirates manage to board, well I don't think the spec ops boys would have many problems. Live training.
The tricky part is that in this day and age, we would need a lawyer on board as well. Perhaps he could read the pirates their Miranda rights as their boat sinks. Indeed, you could place a judge on board too, have a speedy instant real time trial and render sentence. Sounds like something out of RoboCop, but it is where things are headed.
Yes, arm the ships. Don't put boots on the ground. How are you going to ID the bad guys when they are at home? Photos of dead kids and shot-up villages will be on the web every day. It will be a public relations nightmare.
The pirates are buying Kenyan real estate. http://io9.com/#!5440267/somali-pirates-diversify-activities-with-savvy-real-estate-investments
Don't forget, the industrialized world is using Somalia as a toxic waste dump. Plenty of guilt to go around.
I was wondering if anyone would bring that last point up. Well done.
I bet there would be a lot less 'pirates' if the Somalians could still safely find/eat any fish they catch off their coast.
No,but the sightings of Portugese and Chinese drag trawlers would spike.
Throw the damn lawyer overboard.
people will just have to do what people will have to do. snuff all of them. waiting will make it harder and more expensive.
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