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Shorts Refuse To Capitulate: End Of September NYSE Short Interest Near Record Highs
The one side-effect of the torrid market move over the past 40 days that every bull had been hoping for, a massive, and self-sustaining short covering spree, has completely failed to materialize. Despite what is now a 10%+ move since early September, predicated by nothing more than the dollar debasement and QE2 expectations, NYSE short interest remained virtually unchanged for the past 30 days, starting the month at 14.36 billion shares and ending the month at14.35 billion! In other words, the shorts' conviction that the rally is based on nothing fundamental is as strong now as it was when they were 10% more in the money. And that they are willing to experience such pain reinforces their expectation, right or not, that the market is way overbought and is due for a major pullback.
As for the observation that neither retail, nor long-only, nor short-covering was a buying force in the September rally, once again begging the question just who did all this buying, we will leave that open.
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Way OT here, but TD, have you seen this yet?
Might get interesting...
Google Plans Alternative Inflation Index Using Web Data By: Robin Harding, Financial TimesGoogle is using its vast database of web shopping data to construct the ‘Google Price Index’ – a daily measure of inflation that could one day provide an alternative to official statistics.
CNBS running this story from FT
That's nice but I don't buy milk, booze, smokes or anything that I need for daily consumption on the web. I buy smaller electronics, car parts, gold and silver. Not much of an index except to track the dollar vs. RMB.
It's a bitch trying to find parts for that 62 Beetle, isn't it? Try Briggs and Stratton. :>)
That is just too funny. I have a 1960 VW transporter (model 212). It has maybe 300 total parts, and they are ALL available from http://www.wolfsburgwest.com . My beast costs practically nothing to maintain. I doubt the same can be said for many other cars that are on the road.
You have a point
and I'm sure a lot of internet sellers data can be skewed one way or another.
I buy smaller electronics, car parts, gold and silver.
If true, then you are kicking ass! Chem and Data storage tambien.
who did all the buying? ....a tiny amount of buying in S&P overnight futures by manipulators judging by the many overnight gap ups as shown in a previous topic on ZH
more shorts to squeeze only means that markets will go higher. short covering is the only thing pushing the market up. until the shorts capitulate, higher we go.
Agreed. Also, Nasdaq short interest has decreased. Shorts have been throwing in the towel over there. And rightly so. You'd be nuts to short what is essentially the Apple Index.
Don't quite get you there, Chief. The very best shorts are ridiculously over-crowded longs.
I think it is almost exactly the right time to short apple, myself.
Playing with fire there. Maybe around 350ish but definitely not here - especially with earnings next week and a sure to be blowout Q. Be patient.
Oh, I rather think I have been patient with this one, Chief.
I have watched as this stock has been overbid for months by PMs with little imagination to the point that this stock alone is quite obviously going to tank the NASDAQ. I have patiently watched as greed has transformed itself into endless hyperprattle, endless upside targets by Apple zombies who quite literally think this company makes the world go 'round.
I could go on...but why?
It becomes a point of conviction...the conviction that too many of of the above mentioned folk will soon recognize where they are standing. And when they look around, they will see only one door out.
And I like to be there when that Wall Street Betrayal arrives, chief.
You will be right at some point but at 300 the stock is not overvalued. 350 seems to get a little hot and provide a nice entry point for a potential short. Especially after year end. Nobody is dumping AAPL going into EOY reports.
No PM would choose to dump their AAPL, but when it happens, it won't be because they wanted to.
Never trade on emotion
Free Ipads. Don't shoot the horse in the final stretch!
Nasdaq you mean that scam Madoff invented?
+1
Yep. Was thinking that it is not good news for bears. Don't have access to longer term charts of NYSE short interest vs. SP-500 - have there been any significant drops where short interest levels were pretty high just before going into it?
I would like to see long term charts as well. However, the actions by the Fed since Mar 2009, may distort the outcome on a historical comparison, either way, up or down.
+1
but the shorts are not capitulating....
All the shorts know the secret Zero Hedge Handshake.
" This time its different "
VS
" This will end badly "
It appears the shorts are calling Benny's bluff as well as the bond market. Benny is behind the eight ball now, and he knows it. He is simply fucked at this point. 1 trillion in excess reserves, gov't crying for the banks to lend it and force inflation. However, nobody is borrowing cuz they are either tapped out, or simply don't want things as badly anymore. Their social mood has changed. Deflationary pressure is here to stay if nobody borrows.
QE 2 is a blow job with no tongue!!!!
It wont happen since reserves are already to high and the Fed has no exit strategy planned. SO NOW WHAT BEN? WTF are you going to do now. KILL THE DOLLAR SOME MORE? THEN RISK LOSING IT ALL? GAME OVER MAINGS, GAME OVER MAINGS.
I can now see now when the selling starts, it will be sucking so hard with a such a vacuum, that Ben will want to use some tongue then. However, it will be too late.......You big tease, BEN>>>>
Wish I could thumbs up posts, youre exactly right! In my opinion anyway. Record hi shorts with insider selling at 2,000:1, like no one knows anything? I bet the shorts are the insiders, banksters, FED etc themselves positioning to gobble up all these Hindu bulls!
And the killer news will be- 'Sorry, no Q/E2'.
Ben: We Must Double our Efforts!!
Looks like Paulson & Jamie are working overtime keeping financials up today. Either that or shareholders are delighted that Wall Street is only being compensated 144 Billion a mere 4% increase as opposed to last years round of bonuses courteousy QE, Shorts, Manipulation and fradulent accounting.
I made this to cheer up those that have been short this past month.
http://sendables.jibjab.com/view/RBLPDFsBhHlNHlWe
It's a short clip featuring Obama, Geithner, Bernanke, Shapiro, and Becky Quicks take on recent events.
You cannot time the shorting, you are either in or out, otherwise stay out and watch! Given daily front-running and quote stuffing and what not other manipulation, the only chance to make your payday is to be IN with all that pain...there won't be any time to get in once it's under way...market psychology doe not work as it used to be anymore, FEDs fucked that up too, do it with options if your funds on't allow for more outright buying, roll them if you get close to time value depreciation or buy more if you already have an outright build position, that's how I do it and I still can take quite some more pain but I think I won't have too, getting closer by the day!
I agree. Once it begins you wont be able to catch it.
the only chance to make your payday is to be IN with all that pain
And it DOES hurt. Alot. But "they" are right...until they're wrong. I'm wrong until I'm right. And I do so love being right. Don't worry Mr. Wanger, not shorting AAPL. Yet.
i don't understand what you guys are talking about that you can't get in once it starts? My pops was saying the same crap today? How is that? Thank GOD I haven't been short since August thank you. IM SURE I can get in at a higher price than those of you short since August, I SUPER feel for you this is a JOKE. I regress, there is no way it's just 'better to have been short', I feel I'm in a MUCH better position. Market closed lower than the previous day like 4 times in the last 30 days. Happy to wait.
SP 1200
Increasing short interest is bearish. People generally don't short unless they are confident in the long term outlook of their position, since they could face infinite losses. Short-term, sure there could be a little more to the rally, but long-term, I see it as definitely bearish.
Shorts, longs, buyers, sells refuse to sell or buy any longer at these levels...market volume is simply catatonic after opening hour until closing hour ramp (on relative low volume...and then a quarter to third of volume in last two minutes).
Good observation. if mutual fund outflows continue, some of these positions are going to need to be liquidated.
I don't know why anyone would short this market pre-election. Additionally, it's my opinion Bernanke will be disingenuous as to why he will commence QE2. While he will use the weak recovery as an excuse, his real motivations will be to keep interest rates artificially low and to allow the continued purchase of treasuries issued to fund the monstrous deficit.
+1
Stock players sure have a short time frame. Gold and silver traders have been battling massive shorts for years.
There is something new here. In the recent past the shorts were made to cover.
The record high shorts are the insiders, banksters, and FED themselves, SURPRISE!!
OMG and I thought i had thought of it all! You are 100% correct my friend.
Ben's gonna need to create some volatility in this market or all the trading houses are going to starve w/ volumes going down, down, down.
and now, as Teppers and BlackRocks realize that the Fed's train has reached it's final destination, and start the selling, don't expect the "shorts" to start covering when market drops 5, 7 or even 10%. It will take a much deeper fall...
My November surprise: DJIA with 8-handle?
I see it the same way, no reason to cover any shorts because the big payoff is coming fast. With 2,000:1 insider sell to buy ratio, has ANYONE even thought that these record high shorts are the insiders and FED themselves? Theyve done a great job convincing everyone it only goes up and up, their big payday will come not by squeezing shorts more, but by mass murder of all that tender Hindu bull long the markets and asleep!
Hammer time !
That thought has crossed my mind.
Of course its the big boys selling. You can screen it by ticker and/or corp. officer at www.insidercow.com . Just look at AAPL's inside selling. I asked if anyone know if they get paid by the bushel. Tim Cook cashed out over fourteen million in last few months. Guess he has Verizon Wireless plan for the family too.
I don't think they've convinced anyone but the media. Commodities are still flying today while equities are flat. Where's robopeep?
Don't fight the tape, boys. The pain trade is up...holla.
No analysis of who the shorts really are... Insider selling to buy ratio 2,000:1? Anyone thought yet that the record high short interest is the upward manipulators themselves positioning short to shear and skin the wildly overconfident permabull community which they've lulled into total Hindu cow complacency?
I said it many, many moons ago ...I AINT SHORTING SHIT!!!!
Shorts are getting destroyed in here, pain will continue too!
Hmmm funny how the shorts arent covering 1 bit huh? What do the record high shorts (insiders, banksters, FED) know that you dont?
They would have only been destroyed if they had covered. As you can see, they are still there, waiting to buy your empty bag after its true valuation is reflected by the robots when their stack finally overflows.....
Mid-late October surprise, markets plunge 15% and it was the insiders, banksters, and FED who did all the record shorting...yea I think so.
Obama is set for humiliation and will go for Plan B- Fear and Panic.
No Q/E2 because Ben cant pull it off. He's lost the deflation battle, time to go all in short.
Jeffries profit falls 46% on lower trading volume
http://www.cnbc.com/id
A question for all permabulls- Why do you assume they keep pumping up, when no one is buying a thing? It does them not 1 bit of good to pump any price when no one is paying it here, or higher. Their only way to profit now is to shear the Hindu bulls.
I'd be careful assuming even a majority of the short interest is directional bets. There are a gazillion market neutral strategies that require shorting stock as one leg of a trade (convert arb, risk arb, stat arb, capital structure arb, long/short, etc.).
At least with convertible arb, the PMs try to maintain delta neutral positions by covering on market declines, then put the shorts out again as the market rallies.
I really don't know what one can conclude from short interest numbers without knowing how much of the universe of stocks sold short are true directional bets and how much is hedging.
how dare you confuse the mob with facts.
not to mention, that you could easily call the latest stats BuLLish, as there is still a full round of squeeze left in the chamber.
My tea leaves give Fibonacci extension targets from the recent daily flag for AAPL of:
100%-$294
138.2%-$346
150%-$361
161.8%-$377.
So is it nearly over?Probably not.I always look at EURGBP not EURUSD,the correlation with the Nasdaq is more than coincidental,and today EURGBP is again going to the moon.
The printers either side of the Atlantic are falling over themselves to destroy their currency,but I think The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street is winning hands down.
I'll cover at Dow 500. Or was it 5k.
If Banks would lend we would see inflation. But, on the other hand Bernankie knows that if Banks start to lend it will increase the cost of the Debt. If he raised rates then the Banks would lend instead of putting their Money at the Federal Reserve. It does appear that he is in a box.
Yet, I do think he is getting into dangerous territory with the inflation in Oil, Gold, Copper, Wheat, Rice, Coffee, Soy, Corn. All of the consumer staples to survive.
It almost seems like he is willing to destroy the Middle Class to keep up Wall Street Bonuses and of course his personal investment account. Everyone else be dammed.
Ben's reach is beginning to exceed his grasp....and the shorts know it. Nobody will see "it" coming - not when the bulls decide to be bears and all head out the bottlenecked exit - most will treat the first day or three like a silly flash crash - and then it'll resume. Think what it must take to keep shorts going during times like this?! You gotta respect that steadfast determination - at least I do.
I read a lot of commentary that says the bears can't do this or that to move the market ergo it will keep rising forever. As far as I'm concerned we will inevitably reach a point where someone of consequence on the bull side breaks ranks and cashes out. Who knows what will be the cause. They are still trying to figure out 1929 and 1987. But I don't think it was obdurate short sellers who precipitated either of those events.
So that's like saying get ready for 50 points if we breach 1184.50
Shorting implies that you think Ben Bernanke's Federal Reserve Notes are more valuable than stock in productive businesses.
Pretty crazy, eh?
Ill play its moral hazzard money not mine.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/twice-as-many-elderly-in-poverty-new-formula-new-policy-hope/19152740/
We will never again be able to get sufficient growth of the current economy to eliminate or even markedly reduced unemployment. NAFTA, GATT, and hope of growing the economy to solve unemployment are doomed to failure so wake up and move on to the next predicated cycle. The promise of competing in the global economy is a hoax perpetrated upon the working and unemployed people of this country because over time a nation needs to buy and sell overseas in roughly equivalent amounts. Those who think we can continue to have business as usual will use increasingly desperate means. All of these governmental standards of have contributed to creating a situation in which millions of people were buying homes they could not afford, in which the participants experienced the illusion of prosperity, in which billions of dollars were going into bad investments. Eventually the bubble burst; the rest is history. Consider this context to where we came from while I “we who where alive then” watched our city’s burn in 67 maybe we are even on the social scale, but not in the real economic matrix and that is nothing ever new is it. The real point is that the truth is out there but what mask will they bury you with. Since I still work and what is fair anymore in the first place? Selfish people deserve attention? The class war is over and the wealthy have won again. http://www.67riots.rutgers.edu/d_index.htm
I went Long today with 4 percent of assets from Fixed.
http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/chart.aspx?t=VBINX®ion=USA&culture=en-US
For even worse news here it is for the Libertarian's
http://www.infowars.com/sarah-palin-the-next-teleprompter-reader-in-the-white-house/
Imagine it. Say it ain’t so Joe takes a backseat and the Bilderberger doorstop Hillary Clinton becomes the VP candidate for the Dems. Rumors from Hell complete.
I am NO BULL but how do we know how big of a canon the FR has? I can see them pumping and printing and playing a shell game like they did with Merrill and BOFA for years to come.
This market is not organic and will not fall unless it's allowed to fall just like it is being artifically moved up.
No one knows what the market will do because it's no longer organic it's artifical. So to say you can predict it is to say you know where I'm going to dinner right now when you have no idea. No chance any fundamental, technical or any other analyist has a clue.
SBUX looked like a short covering rally this morning. Up about 5% in about 90 minutes--Ostensibly on a upgrade by CS--all while the Dow was down about 50 points.