This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Silver’s Paper Driven Sell Off To Be Confronted By Continued Significant Physical Demand

Tyler Durden's picture


From GoldCore

Silver’s Paper Driven Sell Off to Be Confronted by Continued Significant Physical Demand

Gold stabilised in Asian and early European trading prior to a 1%
fall, while silver’s sharp price fall continues and silver is now down
20% in USD terms in 5 days. The huge and unprecedented increase in
margin in the paper silver market has forced some weak hands out of the
silver market and allowed the concentrated shorts on Wall Street to
press their advantage to the downside.

Gold to Silver Ratio – 1971 to Today Gold (orange), Silver (yellow) and Gold/ Silver Ratio (white)
Click on the image to view full size

Both gold and silver’s sell off are healthy and are due to them
becoming overbought in the short term (particularly silver) and this is
once again a paper profit taking and technical driven, speculative sell
off as seen in the surge in frenzied dealing and large spike in
trading volumes in silver futures in New York.

Gold’s resilience is further confirmation of massive buying of gold
by creditor nation central banks which should reassure bullion owners
and offer support to silver.

Silver in Nominal USD Terms – 1971 to May 2011 (Weekly)

Some nervous physical silver buyers and more speculative physical buyers
have sold today and this week but those buying for diversification and
financial insurance are strong hands and have not sold. Indeed,
physical buying and buying the dip has continued yesterday and today.

A correction, possibly sharp, was expected after the 28% rise in
prices in April alone and the sharp rise seen so far in 2011. Support
may be seen at $35/oz but experience shows that paper driven sell offs
in the futures markets in New York can surprise to the downside.

COMEX Silver Inventories – 1 Year (Daily)

Cross Currency Rates

Inflation risk (and the possibility of stagflation and hyperinflation)
today mean that cash can become trash very fast and thus international
equities, international government bonds (high credit; very short
duration) and gold remain prudent asset allocations.

The cash component of a portfolio should probably include some local
currency and a combination of creditor nation fiat currencies and of
course silver and gold.

Savers need to protect themselves from local currency risk and
diversifying savings through ownership of bullion continues to be


Gold is trading at $1,501.40/oz, €1,012.54/oz and £910.27/oz.


Silver is trading at $37.72/oz, €25.45/oz and £22.87/oz.

Platinum Group Metals

Platinum is trading at $1,796/oz, palladium at $720/oz and rhodium at $2,250/oz.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:08 | 1242406 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Wow, that was an intellectually stimulating statement. Curious, how long did it take you to think of that one? are one of those that changes his post 5 times

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:16 | 1242431 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

I caught "What does it all mean" doing what trolls usually do: posting a meaningless and quick comment to be the first to answer to the article ("Let's be honest."), thus having great visibility and exposure, and then editing quick with the final comment. 

He is another silver troll, like MethMan, William the bastard, JohnyBravo, long juan silver, Gold 36000...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:13 | 1242436 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Only you, because you don't know what you are talking about.

Sponsored posts come from "Zerohedge", not Tyler Durden.


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:28 | 1242487 tmosley
tmosley's picture

God, it's like you were born yesterday.

Click on any other article not written by Tyler.  It will say "From (where it came from)".

Fucking idiot.

Christ, we get an update from Goldcore EVERY MORNING.  

You never pay attention, and that's why you never know what is going on.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:29 | 1242494 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yes indeed. You want to know what my agenda is today?

Dinner at 5, do homework with the kids till 8, put them in bed, quality time with the misses till midnight.

I also added something to your agenda: Go to FAR FAR AWAY!


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:03 | 1242691 Creed
Creed's picture

EVERYBODY here has an agenda!


you clearly do, enjoy your stay


some of us are just here to enjoy the show

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:34 | 1242843 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

And here is my agenda, for anyone that gives a shit:

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:39 | 1242866 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture


shouldn't you be down in new york at the wtc today?  obama is going to talk and they are celebrating the death of that evil wascally bin laden that we all know helped to attack the united states on 911. yeppers turd, even though you think there can be conspiracies in the metals market, we all know that there are no conspiracies in world affairs.... si?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:20 | 1243043 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Why so butthurt?

You don't have to agree with absolutely everything everyone says, and neither does he.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:47 | 1243517 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

hey look tmos,

go argue with someone else.  what is your problem? do you live to argue and argue to live or something. relax. i am merely busting the turd's balls. is that ok with you pally?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:23 | 1243719 tmosley
tmosley's picture

"Butthurt" means overly emotional.  If you weren't actually emotional, then no big deal.

You just really sounded like you were letting your disagreement with him on one issue cloud your judgement on another totally separate one.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:13 | 1243010 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

We all know we are buying silver to preserve wealth and for financial security for when the dollar goes ( it will) so everyone on ZH we need to do a a little wishful thinking if we all will silver down to $1.00 then just think how much you could buy . so then when it shoots back up which it will , well enough said . One other thing will people please just ignore the trolls , you are only encouraging them .

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:06 | 1243933 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture





If Gold and SILVER are so GREAT!!! How come there is so much MORE PAPER MONEY than gold or SILVER!! if Gold and SILVER were BETTER than PAPER PEOPLE WOULD MAKE MORE OF IT!!! CAUSE THEY WANT IT!!!


Tree's are finite! Ink Toner is Finite! (ask Turd!) silver is a $4 maybe $3 dollar by product of other metals! and I can EAT Paper not metal and if I needed to eat paper look how much is around!




Base money has tripled in 3 years.

2. M1 has continued to increase to its highest level in history.

3. Same goes for M2


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:51 | 1243199 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

We are just busting your balls turd.  We know where your heart is given that article you posted a week or two ago about standing up and telling the truth about the elite oligarchs that control the monetary system.  You know I've seen a lot of articles lately, including one in the paper, that really disturbed me especially given this little gathering at the wtc.  All these people celebrating the killing of osama, cheering just as we were shown and told muslims were cheering the deaths of our people in the towers.  To me I find that very disturbing.  Whether he was real, or if he's dead or if he had anything to do with the wtc to me is irrelevant.  There are much bigger issues we as human beings face in the coming years that we need to focus on rather than celebrate the propaganda death of some phantom boogieman they tell us did it.


My point is it reminds me of this story in the bible, I'm not some bible thumper but I have studied a lot of it.  The story of barabbas and Jesus.

"So the people urged on by their rulers shouted for Barabbas, even though they knew their hero was a morally flawed champion. And Jesus, who had no flaw, they delivered over to Pilate to be crucified."

It's a parable meaning people when faced with the truth would rather turn a blind eye, then to reflect on what could possibly change their outlook on everything.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:17 | 1243988 agrotera
agrotera's picture

You are a poet GG and i am glad to see your words again!  God bless!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:41 | 1243793 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Hilarious link Turd...
But you need to upgrade to Skittles, Provigil and amphetamines...

Meth will make a sweating and raving Cramer the Clown out of you

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:26 | 1242794 Temporis
Temporis's picture

Just keep on spewing that bullshit What-does-it-all-mean...

Seems like you have an endless supply of the stuff.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:26 | 1243085 ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture

Are you brand fucking new to capitalism?

It's a system based on SELF-INTEREST you fucking idiot.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:20 | 1242453 Rynak
Rynak's picture

I'd rather read a "sponsored article" marked as such, than the advice of a "sponsored troll" unmarked as such..... though, one could argue that he is "marked" as such.... one junk at a time.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:04 | 1242699 Creed
Creed's picture

are you a fat lady?


if not, this may not be over yet

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:21 | 1242774 doggings
doggings's picture

he certainly sings like one? - "the desperation of the losers" song if im not mistaken.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:27 | 1242811 Temporis
Temporis's picture

YOU are desperate to be #1 troll on these boards. I love how your sorry ass just happened to show up and start trolling just as silver started dropping.

I give Mathman and Dangertime credit because they at least were attempting to call the downturn before it happened. Your such a fucking cowered because you waiting until after the fact... bitch

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:22 | 1243012 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

I wouldn't give them too much credit.

DT was trolling silver in the area of 40 fiatscos/oz on the way up, so he missed an almost 25% rise; he has been 'correct' for around a 6% correction.

MethMom was calling his 'top' at thirty 4/oz, so he hasn't been right to date.

Neither of them mentioned that there would be four (count 'em FOUR) margin increases in almost as many business days, so their calls can hardly be called 'prescient'.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:47 | 1244360 eisley79
eisley79's picture

LOL @ giving dangertime credit...he has no investsments, and didnt call anything right.  he is just a trolling troll trying to hide his past posts.


by Dangertime
on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:35

Forgiven, the peak is in for this run.  We will see $50 again but not likely for another year.  You still have time to sell and restock with even more this summer.
by Dangertime
on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:20

Silver will break $50 next week and march possibly even to $60.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:21 | 1242459 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Do you realize this isn't a Yahoo idiot board? When do YOU realise you're place isn't here?

50 junks before you get erased he? I'm number 10.


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:35 | 1242509 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

No, there are plenty of people here who also don't believe in the silver bull but they argue with facts and do it in a polite way.

You just act like a idiot from Yahoo.

That's why I'm pretty sure your investment is no larger than 500$, which for you is enough to bother the rest with your nonsence.

Just grow up kid and buy a Ipad with your profits.


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:48 | 1242587 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Funny, because I had a 200k swing the other day.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1242601 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You told me you were on the sidelines, and always have been.  In fact, you were bragging about it, like a guy bragging about not spending any money on gas because he doesn't have a job.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:57 | 1242645 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Dude, not in silver, CL, ES, JPY/USD...

Not in silver!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:30 | 1242827 Temporis
Temporis's picture

Fake money does not count.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:52 | 1242932 ATM
ATM's picture

I am sorry for your loss.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:08 | 1243315 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No loss.  Only gain.  As in, next week I am going to "gain" some more oz for my collection--25% more than I would have gained without this happening.

In addition, this is the first of many birth pangs of the new world monetary order.  Those few, those brave, happy few who hold on to their physical silver will be the oligarchs of the new system.

At least 50% of those holding here will be shaken out.  Hell, maybe 90 or 99%.  Silver will be universally despised, while at the same time being unavailable.  I will still be buying.  If by some miracle everything turns around and becomes super happy, and silver drops back to $5, I will buy 7.5 times more than I am buying now.  If the COMEX is found to be perfectly solvent, I will start buying from them.  Because the shortage is coming, and lower prices will ony exacerbate the situation.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:26 | 1243723 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Some people are incapable of thinking in the long term dude. I'm right there with you. I plan for decades, not days.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:11 | 1242726 Creed
Creed's picture

 but if I point out how biased silver bugs are, I am a troll, idiot and incite anger.


you're not pointing out how biased silver owners are, you're pointing out how biased YOU are

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:45 | 1242880 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Your complaint is that bugs are biased?  You've got to explain that one.

The bugs I know spend more time trying to figure out wtf is going on so they can protect their wealth.  Selling the dip isn't one of those ways.  I'm buying physical today - and will keep buying, because its a form of SAVING.  Transferring the fruit of labor into tangible money rather than paper fiat which is MORE volatile [to the downside] - it's just that the devaluation is hidden from those with an unhealthy dose of normalcy bias.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:31 | 1242816 Temporis
Temporis's picture

No you say... "Troll Bitchez..."



Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:08 | 1242992 buzzard
buzzard's picture

I'm 49. Couldn't quite do it.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:11 | 1242415 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

I miss when scrubs like you only used one account to post their worthless Monday Morning QB posts....

I miss when there was only one Robotrader to clog up the ZH message boards..

I miss the days when there weren't so many JPM/Fed folks on this board endlessly touting their flawed ideas or unaccountable wrong predictions.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:15 | 1242442 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I think most of us would rather you exposed yourself to oncoming traffic.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:23 | 1242466 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

If you only hold physical, and don't care about paper prices... Then why are you so angry?  

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:28 | 1242482 trav7777
trav7777's picture

it's because yet another of his bold predictions blew up in his face

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:38 | 1242525 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Butthurt faggot is butthurt.

I predicted this would happen when we moved to the next phase of the COMEX collapse way back in February.


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:35 | tmosley (Total Score:1)

The paper price is fake.  The sooner it breaks down toward zero (among infinite volatility), the sooner the current system ends due to metal default, and "gold bugs" take over the financial system as physical premiums head toward infinite.“catast...

All this shit means is that the COMEX is about to collapse.  But your blind hatred doesn't allow you to see that.  You just see my name and automatically think everything said is "wrong".  You have even created a false persona for me in your head in the form of a Cheers character.

You are intellectually weak.  This is why you can't face the truth that YOU have been wrong on so very many predictions, so you project on to me.  Cry some more, you big baby.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:46 | 1242572 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Tmo, quit changing your tune.  You've made so many contradictory posts that you can claim to have predicted just about anything at this point.  

If you really knew this was going to happen, why didn't you buy puts?  You'd be buying more physical with the profits.   Instead you called everyone  names and told us how stupid we were.

Face it.  You are a fucking liar.  All you did was go long physical... and call anyone who didn't a fucktard.   You didn't put your money where your mouth was and short the paper market that you now claim is going to zero.  Like you accused all the shorts of not doing...  which, by the way we did, and we made a fucking killing...

If you're so sure the paper price is going to Zero, then there is still time to hedge up before the second leg of the collapse occurs...  if you're so confident that the 'paper' price is going to zero, why aren't you shorting it?

Fuck you pig.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:55 | 1242634 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Uhh, the cut and pastes don't lie, son.

If you recall, I told you that hedged puts on SLV were actually a good play, but you refuse to see the difference between physical silver and SLV, so it was lost on you.

Everything I have said has been 100% consistent.  Buy PHYSICAL FUCKING SILVER and DON'T LET IT GO FOR ANY AMOUNT OF DOLLARS.

And I don't play with paper, because when the COMEX goes ALL the paper written against it will be WORTHLESS, both PUTS and CALLS, because they won't have any silver to cover those contracts.

And I'm not shorting it because there will be infinite volatility on the way down, and as mentioned above, when the COMEX defaults, all of their contracts (including my "hedges") become WORTHLESS.

But you are too stupid to see that.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:02 | 1242683 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Tmo -

Your misunderstanding of the markets is comical.

COMEX is not going bankrupt...  sorry to break it to you.

And there are no shortages of physical silver.  With the exception of silver eagles (and even that is dubious), which represent less than 3% of the silver market (30mm minted/year vs total supply of 1,056mm ounces).  You've been had.  Wake up.



Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:28 | 1242802 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I have a new avatar for you:

Christ, if you are serious, your ass was born yesterday.  The premiums are up on ALL FORMS of physical silver.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:30 | 1242812 jackpagan
jackpagan's picture

Meth Man, it's your misunderstanding of the term superbull is what's comical.  Been reading you since silver was $20, you've been nothing but wrong about everything.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:46 | 1242889 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Check you facts.  I didn't show up until $30 silver.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:50 | 1243219 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Since you don't know any "facts" when it comes to silver, what is there to check?

And btw, who were you before Math Man? All you useless trolls have multiple identities.  

Watch physical silver disappear now and try and learn something.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:55 | 1243247 BigJim
BigJim's picture

You get to crow 'when' silver hits < $25 an ounce, as I recall.

Until then, you've been losing money...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:39 | 1242533 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Because when you take lying away from people as a control mechanism they get violent. We're just maintaining a rolling anger release so we're ready for it.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:39 | 1242534 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'm not angry.  I just think that a brick in the wall should know its place.  A batter that won't swing the bat is useless.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:49 | 1242915 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Yes you are angry, because you and Jim Willie are right. COmex is a scam and spot silver is being manipulated. Yes you are angry that the system is so corrupted that we all are starting to choke on the fumes of this big pile of bullshit.

Buy the fucking dip if the coin shop has any left.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:27 | 1243075 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Called yesterday.  They won't even pick up the phone.


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:37 | 1243119 baseball13
baseball13's picture

...unless the batter gets a walk with the bases loaded!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:45 | 1244342 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That might work if you have a shitty pitcher.

Watch the bit starting at 1:15 of this video for an idea of what happens when you never swing the bat.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:15 | 1242443 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

Can we at least have an intellectual troll capable of some actually decent rebuttals of pm's?  They keep giving us these retarded ones that ain't make no sense.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:24 | 1242478 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Like your post shows a lot of deep thought...  How about letting the price do the talking?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:32 | 1242486 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

You must not have got a lot of love growing up.  God loves you and says quit trying so hard for attention. 

Can I get an amen from that dude that slings guns in texas?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1242603 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

I'm still waiting for one of the Brainiacs to inform us what CFO stands for....

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:37 | 1242844 Temporis
Temporis's picture

Keep on spewing the silver hate...

Easy to do when you start opening your mouth after the fact.


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:30 | 1242495 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The trolls would first have to intellectually grasp the breadth of rationals and strategies employed that favor long positions in PMs. Given that they seem to goup the entire simple matrix of short/long term and physical/paper as one "bug" mentality I wouldn't hold out hope.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:22 | 1242472 Old. No. 7
Old. No. 7's picture

Why not expose something worth exposing, like the Silverstein scam?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:25 | 1242481 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Maybe, you mean the WTC center insurance scam that claims that there were two attacks?  like two bullets, or two missles in a gun fight?  Yeah, that was total BS.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:52 | 1242604 Old. No. 7
Old. No. 7's picture

You seem to be having trouble, I'll help you-

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:02 | 1243272 clymer
clymer's picture

troll = bad

traitor = worse


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:14 | 1242737 Creed
Creed's picture

this will be a good one to save for later


by What does it al...
on Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:11


I only have one account.  I only post about Silver in the last 2 weeks.  I am not Robotrader, (do like his pics, hate his charts though.)  

I am not a fan of TBTF and Fed.  I just want to expose ZH's guerilla marketing ways.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:33 | 1243445 clymer
clymer's picture

listen live - he's on for the remainder of the week:


You just know people are getting nervous

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:32 | 1243764 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

They should be, I've moved my rifle and sidearm into condition 1 status.


Just waiting for them to make the first move.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:24 | 1242785 doggings
doggings's picture

 I just want to expose ZH's guerilla marketing ways.

we are well aware of this, which is why we are here. if you dont like it fuck off back to exposing yourself to kids and old ladies instead. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:53 | 1242938 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

He did that, but is tired of being laughed at.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:44 | 1243350 Ura Bonehead
Ura Bonehead's picture

I just want to expose ZH's guerilla marketing ways.


None of us is stupid.  And sponsored articles or not, I think most would agree that ZH is worth every dime we pay for it!

Be thankful that the site hasn't fallen to the level of what WAS a great site, Seeking Alpha.  Every Tom, Dick and Harry with a lawn chair and house slippers is posting ideas over there.  [Please be careful, Tyler.]

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:34 | 1242515 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Ah, the good ol' days.  Days when you could get useful discussions going about real questions.  Questions like- if the comex system is as broke as it's starting to seem then how will price discovery happen?  Will it go back to whatever the market will bear?  It's part way there with dealers asking for a receiving large above-spot premiums.  Will they start charging whatever they want and can get?  How about price discovery via something like MIT's billion points project?  What about the myriad of paper trading instruments out there, which will fail when the COMEX dies.  If SLV becomes nonfunctional as the COMEX becomes irrelevants what happens to all those calls and puts?  We live in exciting times, lets hear some good discussion.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:24 | 1242781 ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture


Yes, real questions like: Since there hasn't been any margin hikes in Au, why is in lock-step with Ag?


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:01 | 1243268 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Au has dropped 6% in the last week, Ag has dropped 25%


How is that 'lock-step', exactly?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 15:09 | 1244491 ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture

Forget percentages and look at the charts.  Except for one instance this morning, every move down in Ag was complemented by a move down in Au, but there are no margin hikes on Au and the economy is in worse shape that last week, last month, etc....  This proves manipulation is the culprit and the CFTC should investigate immediately.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 23:39 | 1250331 ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture


Or are you trying to tell me that PM mutual funds link Au as a smaller percentage to Ag? 

What is it BJ? (your name acronym is quite suiting tough guy)


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:46 | 1243835 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Dead Fred    THANK YOU!   your exactly right....why do we give the dignity and respect to trolls by responding to them.   Let's discuss these questions you put forward instead. I've wondered about price discovery myself as well.  I've asked questions further down in this thread also about type of silver one holds example:  bars and rounds vs official coins of government issue.  

If an ounce sky rockets in value would it be wise to also buy smaller amounts like 1/2 ounces etc?   same with Gold

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:18 | 1245424 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

 There are only two reasons anything in the market moves: Demand and Perceived Demand.

Silver is mined all around the world; Mexico, for instance, is gearing up to drill more silver mines. I, for one, can't stand the silver shrills that think they are slick enough to move the markets with their carnival barking and self-annointing, supposed expertise. Listen, if they are so smart they wouldn't be barking bout the silver. Why would they? Obviously they hold and are just trying to take profits on other's miseries as those who buy high, then lose on the way down.  Too, lest we forget that little "demand" thing. Demand for investment has a particularly rough rode, and is a choppy, nasty ride. Unless the world can suddenly eat silver, just don't think it's much of an investment (as I noted here on ZeroHedge a few weeks ago; stating that silver was poised to hit the skids.) My best (educated) guess is we are going to five bucks an ounce silver and it will be twenty years before any real demand returns. You can crunch all the numbers you want, but when people need their money to LIVE off of the choice is not silver (and for the last decade people have been living off of phantom money from 100% plus loans and the really smart people who live off of those welfare benefits that they are masters at playing for all they can be sucked!). There seems to be a failure to notice that we are "reverting to the mean" in a big way, for those of you who recall those days before the bubble or the post-9/11 bubble, this means baking bread at home, eating sandwiches with said bread from home that are carried to work in a little paper sack that has been recycled from the store, and using up,making do, and wearing out. (The great side of that: the end of giant landfills!). CNBC...was touting it, for electronics is not a good measure either: many companies have been established to recycle the silver and gold from electronic parts, however small. Second, we are "electronified" out; parents will decide to feed their kiddies and pay bills rather than buy them the "whatever" electronic thing that is the new one from six months ago.  Comex will be fine and not die. Calls and puts may very well go the way of the dodo as the stock market lulls itself into a quiescence after the storm. This was a fifties/sixties kind of stock market, not much happening. So my little kumquats, we'se got some cleaning up to do in this country and I say to you we can't get back on our feets until we have a little Major Payne going for us. Ya'll recall Major Payne (movei)....well we have namby pambied ourselves into being treated by the world as the kid who has a "kick me" sign on him. And what you see is that the moment the other people of the world and the other countries of the world, smell that weakness resulting from the fat hinnies of Walmart, the stupid replicating of the welfare class albeit who are smart enough to somehow figure out every angle possible to suck suck suck suck the productive class dry via demands for food stamps, Daycare!!, housing, medicaid and you name it (in Massachusetts the welfare benefits include a layette and a crib; ah, Daddy government so gooood to me!) then we have bonfired all that made us great. Hell, Barry Ritholtz was on tv today talking about the weak economy and people needing food stamps since 2000 because of the recession (as I recall the conversation anyways) but really this started with Johnson and his great Society. Cept now we have, oh what shall we call it...ta dum...the women having baby after baby because they can call forth the great social workers and the great "givers" and life is pretty dang good at the so-called bottom right now...and you don't have to do much!! Know how tired you are? well, they aren't. Anyways, Silver is for suckers and won't be needed for twenty years. Get used to working, kumquats, because in America that's what we do to eat. You want a sandwich, show up and punch in, and be on time, with your shoes shined. Hmmm....sounds very old-fashioned. I like it! (I'd love to hire someone to do some clean-up work but don't want to hire Mexicans (legal, probably not) and everyone else has welfare/disability benefits too good to want to work. And god forbid we can hire a high school kid, pay him fifty bucks...can you say Social Security filing and he hurts himself can you say lawyer? Arhhhhhh...what happened to this country!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:46 | 1242567 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:04 | 1242397 RaymondKHessel
RaymondKHessel's picture

Cash = Trash LOL

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:04 | 1242398 bullionbaron
bullionbaron's picture

Silver correction won't drop below $36 before we see $50 again IMHO

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:48 | 1242597 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Don't bet on it.  If the comex price is dropping this fast and the open interest is still going up the guys getting in must have real stones and will demand delivery.  Everyone here cheered on the campaign to kill the manipulation system and we're now seeing the death throws.  They can't drop the OI at 39 so they'll move it to 20.  Then they call in the cops to intimidate everyone.  When that fails the beast will die and metals will be traded at fair value.  Or I'm just ranting.  I don't think we're seeing a normal correction, we're hearing death rattles.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:23 | 1242793 ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture

This is in no way, shape, or form a normal (or organic) correction.  Straight, unadulterated manipulation, plain and simple.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:20 | 1245434 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

Ha. Not a chance. Fifty ain't gonna happen again for a very long time. We are going to $5.00

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:08 | 1242403 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Never buy on the first dip! I am a buyer of more physical at $34-36.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:08 | 1242411 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I'm used to buying at 12-14. I'm holdin out till then.  Kill the paper holders. Drive them into the dirt. If you ain't holdin', you ain't ownin'. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:07 | 1242407 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

Just is giving me a buying opportunity.......

Both physical and paper.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:10 | 1242421 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Rule #2.  Never, ever, buy anything with counter-party risk. 

              (only possible exception is a house, knowing you are always at risk)

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:03 | 1242679 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Anyone interested in putting together a post on counterparty risk in the various products out there?  I have friends who bought silver during the Hunt thing, went on vacation and returned to find the house in shambles.  Thieves had used metal detectors to find the bars hidden behind the drywall.  Even physical has counter party risk.  I know the GLD prospectus says you're on your own in case the they lose their stockpile to thieves or fraud.  Risk is getting riskier now but how many things am I not seeing?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:22 | 1243068 buzzard
buzzard's picture

I never thought that owning physical was without risk. Therefore I have taken precautions. It is only prudent and common sense. I suggest that you all do the same. I suspect that I am preaching to the choir, though.


Naturally I always keep a bit around to fondle. Come on. Admit it. You guys fondle, don't you?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:32 | 1243442 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Those Metal Detectors will lead them to ammuntion storage area where they are a good target. Not to the silver.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:39 | 1243799 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I suggest becoming a FFl 07/ Class 02 and making your own claymores.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:10 | 1242408 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:11 | 1242414 Forward History
Forward History's picture

For the longs out there in Silver (right here), the underlying fundamentals that drove many of us into precious metals for the first time just a few years back have not only not changed, but have intensified. 

I'm not looking to turn a quick buck; I'm allocated into precious metals as a portion of my portfolio as insurance against what I see as runaway spending, apathy towards the state of the dollar, and an ongoing inability for both our politicians to address either of these issues, and the citizenry addicted to sucking at the teet of government being unwilling to let any of their sacred sheep go to the slaughterer (or at least the shearer).

For those interested, my dollar\cost average in silver is somewhere around the $25 mark \ troy ounce.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:21 | 1242448 Kina
Kina's picture

I'm with you on this. I have allocated 15% of my wealth into PMs. Gold at $1150USD and Silver at $20USD. This is insurnace for the longer term, just in case the 'house' burns down.


But will now buy the dips for trading since the cartel are in the process of making it so cheap for the world.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:37 | 1242530 Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

I just trade my silver for gold and vice versa if it's going to do this, last week I traded 33 to 1 when it was 31 to 1 at the local coin shop. Today it's sitting at 40 to 1 and when it gets to be 45 or 50 to 1 then I will trade back for some more silver and holding FRN's too until silver hits a dip or two.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:57 | 1242644 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

This should be printed 20 times on cardstock, legal size. Rolled into a tight roll and taped and then used to beat these trolls about the head and shoulders until comprehension occurs, however long it takes..

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:15 | 1242742 MaxVernon
MaxVernon's picture

Amen, brother!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:09 | 1242417 Captain Planet
Captain Planet's picture

what the hell are yout talking about WDIA?

this isn't opinionated.....this is what happened. did you forget to sell your paper at $50 or something?

we expected this, and tyler is just confirming where the monies are going.

there is still uncertainty in finding the bottom, but all in all, for us silver holders, this is so much more releaving than the breeching of $50/oz.

please, do yourself a favor: BTFD


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:12 | 1242419 Sutton
Sutton's picture

It could go up or it could go down.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:09 | 1242420 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

I don't see why there's so much panick about silver right now. 

We erased April gains. We're back to April 2nd. 

And so what? 

There has been corrections like this in the past. In January, for example, or in November 2010. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:23 | 1242465 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It is not panic it is sensationalism and the MSM is very fond of that.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:15 | 1242425 goldfreak
goldfreak's picture

i put money in silver every month. Please Blythy if you could knock it down to 20 and if  i could then only find somebody stupid enough to sell me physical at that price, I'd go all in.

Of course at 20 you won't be able to find an ounce of silver anywhere.


Jon Nadler, will Kitco sell silver at 20?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:17 | 1243978 pirea
pirea's picture

They don't sell at 36. Go on KITCO and see that they do not sell anymore individual sv silver coins.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:13 | 1242426 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture


Converting all fiat into PM at the present time.


Thanks Benji!



Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:41 | 1242549 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Me three, I convert the 2-Ply as fast as I get em into something tanglible. Au,Ag,antiques,paintings,fishing reels,equipment,things that go boom or anything I can sell latter. I am going to continue until someone in Washington or the Fed changes their current policies. Looks like Im on a very long buying spree.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:11 | 1242429 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

'you can fall for chains of silver you can fall for chains of gold
you can fall for pretty strangers and the promises they hold'



Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:17 | 1242438 goldfreak
goldfreak's picture

or you can also fall for another internet troll

(did that rhyme?)

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:22 | 1242464 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

'the dice was loaded from the start'

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:26 | 1242476 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Still is....that's a hint.




Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:37 | 1242523 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Great tune!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:57 | 1242639 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

And in gate one we have stupid financial geniuses.

And in gate two we have the judges.

And in gate three we have unintended consequences.

The judges are taking the lead. Laying down a long list of accusations.

Rounding corner two the financial geniuses lay down a huge paper smash.

Coming up from behind we have unintended consequences. Unintended consequences catches up with finanical geniuses and stops running. It's just standing there. Kicking the gold and silver etf in the head. It's a brutal site. It's just relentlessly kicking and jumping up and down on the financial geniuses corpse. You can hear the ribs breaking and organs are strarting to run out of the corpses mouth.

And SLV and GLD have delisted from the race. Unintended conseqeunces lawyer handlers are attempting to move in and settle the horse down. And the judges who never wanted to win anyway. Are just standing around the corpse laughing. It's a beautfiful day for gallows humor.

The problem with engineering society is all the damn reverse engineers.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:18 | 1242755 MaxVernon
MaxVernon's picture

+1, love it! 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:27 | 1242798 doggings
doggings's picture

+second that, v funny. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:48 | 1244377 eisley79
eisley79's picture

When your investments are imaginary and just random troll lies on the interwebs, what do you hedge?  the ability to claim you called something ROFLMAO :D

by Dangertime
on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:35

Forgiven, the peak is in for this run.  We will see $50 again but not likely for another year.  You still have time to sell and restock with even more this summer.
by Dangertime
on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:20

Silver will break $50 next week and march possibly even to $60.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:14 | 1242434 jbc77
jbc77's picture

I am going to buy more physical tomorrow while it's still cheap. I hope they keep hiking the margin requirements cause' that just opens the door to buy more for me. I hope others do they same. I really looking forward to jamming my Eagles up the bankers rear. Lets give it to em' good boys.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:19 | 1242457 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

my thoughts exactly.  the retards at crimex are just making it more affordable to buy a lot more silver at lower prices.  thought i'd never say this, but:  THANK YOU BLYTHE!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:18 | 1242440 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

I just bought silver coins on APMEX.

Look at "world silver" coins as an alternative to scarce silver eagles, libertads and maple leafs. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:32 | 1242492 trav7777
trav7777's picture

bbbbut...bbbut....the mosely-clavens of the world told me that silver was scarce and you couldn't find it anywhere?

So how the hell are all the silver bugz able to "back the truck up" if there wasn't supposed to be any supply at these prices?  They said silver was scarce at 50, now wouldn't it be even scarcer at 37?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:38 | 1242544 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Uhhh, it is.  Why do you think he has to resort to buying weird silver shit?

But then, your confirmation bias is so strong it has taken physical form.  

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:24 | 1243395 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, there will be shortages just like 2008, but you already knew that right? Hard to believe the all knowing Trav can't remember what happened just 3 short years ago.


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:41 | 1243476 Transformer
Transformer's picture

Producers, distributors, retailers---

go to

and look at the prices.

And then go to ebay and see the prices there.

It's time to break away from the Comex. What good does it do to sell at the Comex price if you sell out and then have nothing to sell?  First Majestic is doing their own price discovery.  And it's working.  The best thing to do is for the real, physical, silver world to just walk away from the Comex.  They got no silver.  They represent no more than 5% of the market anyway.  They sell a few million ounces every other month.  The US mint sells way more silver than they do.

The Comex is about finished and you can hurry it along.  All it takes is one or two others to do what FM is doing and the crowd will get the idea.  No need to wait til the Comex self destructs.  We, the physical market, are so much bigger than the Comex.  Screw them.  They can't deliver real silver anyway.   All it takes is some balls to do what FM is doing.  I'm a seasoned business man.  I know it, and I can feel it.  It's the right time.  Fuck the Comex, we don't need them for price discovery.  If a retailer does it, he can easily tell if his price is too high or too low.  If there's more demand than you got silver, raise the price.  If there's less demand, then lower it.  Once a few biggies jump on the band wagon, it will all fall in place.

 The only thing that the Comex, owned by the evil empire, does for us, is set the price, and FM is showing us you don't need them for that.

The price of most everything else is tied to the wholesale price and to local supply and demand.  Ultimately supply and demand rules, and the silver market is no different.  The retailers can price the market, you don't need crooks in $2000 suits to do it for you.

If a dealer sets his own price, and a customer says, "Hey your price is way above spot."  The dealer can say politely,  "It's Ok, if you want to buy your silver from the Comex, go ahead.  They don't have real silver for sale, I do."  If some big dealers do this, at first maybe customers will flock to some on line dealer who has a lower price, but he will quickly sell out.  In this time of short supply, it's the right time to do this.  The market will make the price.

Time to wake up.  No need to be hypnotized by a bunch of scheming crooks in New York City in $2000 suits.  They are scumbag thieves who take advantage of everyone they can.  Let them fuck each other over.  If people want to play futures, let 'em.  We don't need those crooks to tell us how much an ounce of silver should cost.  It's time for the tail to stop wagging the dog. It's time for real price discovery in the marketplace, the real marketplace.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:38 | 1244066 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

thank you for the non-hysteria, non-combative, simple truths Transfomer - I remember when ZH threads were mostly posts such as yours, less in-fighting the trollage. . .

and you are 100% correct:

It's time for real price discovery in the marketplace, the real marketplace.

a corner has been turned people, learn to adapt to survive - as long as you play by "their" rules, you let "them" in your head, and "they" take over your thinking, the Comex is their game. . . just un-plug, and know that this is not a one-off event, but the great unraveling - position yourselves accordingly.


Mon, 05/09/2011 - 23:26 | 1257953 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

That post shit ice cubes. Nice level head you got there. Worked an FM plug in too; Rick N. is on the phone, he wants to do lunch.

Retail`s success at actual price discovery is what got me into PM`s in the first place. Thanks for the reminder.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:19 | 1242446 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I just keep wondering what it will look like when this thing blows up.





Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:29 | 1242484 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Easy there... Don't take away my bread and butter.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:17 | 1242447 Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

Like I had posted the yen. I'ts nearing is crisis zone.

Also, physical demand vs paper're herding and linear extrapolating while completely ignoring the price.

PRICE! It's all you need to watch...the price of silver is dropping like a stone!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:44 | 1242570 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

+1, I agree on Yen and price is king!

Balance that with EUR/JPY.  especially after the Goldman comments about EUR top at 1.50.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:19 | 1242449 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

What speculator in their right mind would want to participate in the futures market if margins can be massively increased at a whim. The sports phrase 'moving the goal posts' springs to mind. I have physical silver and I am not selling any of it. And I have SJ95-$40-June-17 call covered warrants which I will switch to SJ96-$50-Dec-16 call covered warrants because we will have $50+ by the end of 2011. If only it had hit $50 or so last week I would have cashed out 20% and got a few more monster boxes of physical silver.

The Silver Liberation Army marches on.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:18 | 1242452 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Learn from your losses silver bugs.  You earned them.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:21 | 1242467 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

The FRN will be worthless soon, comrade.

I'll stick with buying more PM.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:26 | 1242483 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



My stack has seen no losses......only gains and is currently rising rapidly.







Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:29 | 1242819 jackpagan
jackpagan's picture

Long since $12.88, silver up 205% in 9 months. Gotta like those losses.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:30 | 1242821 jackpagan
jackpagan's picture

Long since $12.88, silver up 205% in 9 months. Gotta like those losses.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:36 | 1242853 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Nice.  Silver is a value at $17.50 or lower.  Anything higher carries increasing risk.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 23:41 | 1257991 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Measured in what, inherently worthless FRN`s? Please. Buddy, your ass backwards thinking is going to bite you in the ass one day soon, stop trying to drag everyone down with you.

You remind me of an old American folk rhyme:

You were standing in the street one day,
As quiet as could be.
When a great big ugly man came up,
and tied his horse to thee.

No reason, you just DO.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:52 | 1242931 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

What losses? Ag could drop another $10.00 and I'd still be ahead.  Have you seen the monetary base charts lately?  JFC...  this is a gift.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:20 | 1242454 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Don't you see it? The Fed, Obama, DC are robbing Americans of their hedge against a planned reduction in their standard of living. The dollar is planned to deflate and the cost of everything (since we import most everything) will rise. All dollar-denominated assets will continue to deflate in real terms (that's the plan). Obama announced it the other day when he said he was going after "oil speculators". What he and TPTB mean is they need to shut down commodity trading while they deflate the dollar so that only the pump prices go up and they can keep future food and energy price increases as a surprise while they continue the dollar evaluation. 

It's a form of capital control that I predicted. Look for more to come. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:13 | 1242732 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

What is your strategy for this?


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:22 | 1242462 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

"so you have ask yourself, punk.  will the USD decrease or increase in value?"

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:24 | 1242468 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

So much for free markets and capitalism. It is a joke.They did this when shorting financials was banned. I am surprised that they haven't banned being long silver. .... I guess they sort of did. Why are they so desperate to keep silver down. What is the end game. Silver backed currency??


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:49 | 1242590 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

"Free Markets" - that's a quaint idea.  

Real as the tooth fairy, but quaint.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:23 | 1242477 Math Man
Math Man's picture

I call bullshit... In addition to the troubles in the futures market, massive supply is driving this thing lower...  32mm ounces from SLV since 4/25/11.  16.8mm yesterday...

You see, when the NAV of SLV is below spot, APs buy shares and swap them for physical and sell the physical at spot and lock in the profit....  free money, and arbitrage at its finest.  

So, when sell pressure is high on SLV, SLV trades below NAV and millions of ounces of silver are sold on the spot market.  32mm ounces since 4/25, 16.8mm ounces yesterday = KABOOM.  That plus the troubles in the futures market = double KABOOM.

And PS, Gold is next.

When people realize how SLV fucked them and exacerbated the decline, people will puke GLD too...  and Gold will be sold.

And the puts are even cheaper than SLV ever thought about being.

20 implied vol means you'll make a mint when the correction comes...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:34 | 1242521 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah um...when everybody tries that it's called size buying at offer.  Multiple arbs competing for the same free money drives the NAV imbalance to zero quickly.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1242602 Math Man
Math Man's picture

But when 180mm shares a day trade, it doesn't have to happen too many times for a lot of silver to come out of the trust.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:58 | 1242648 tmosley
tmosley's picture

It has to happen more than zero.  And they have to sell it on the open market.  Still not seeing any, and I've been looking (and not just on APMEX, you buffoon).

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:07 | 1242698 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Have you called your local bullion bank?  You can buy as much as you want and have it put in allocated storage.

It never hits the retail channel because once it comes out of the bullion banking system, it loses value (has to by assayed again).

You can also get those COMEX bars if you call and order them... I'm sure APMEX is more than happy to take some out of the bullion banking system for a fee.


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!