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Silver’s Paper Driven Sell Off To Be Confronted By Continued Significant Physical Demand

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From GoldCore

Silver’s Paper Driven Sell Off to Be Confronted by Continued Significant Physical Demand

Gold stabilised in Asian and early European trading prior to a 1%
fall, while silver’s sharp price fall continues and silver is now down
20% in USD terms in 5 days. The huge and unprecedented increase in
margin in the paper silver market has forced some weak hands out of the
silver market and allowed the concentrated shorts on Wall Street to
press their advantage to the downside.

GoldCore
Gold to Silver Ratio – 1971 to Today Gold (orange), Silver (yellow) and Gold/ Silver Ratio (white)
Click on the image to view full size

Both gold and silver’s sell off are healthy and are due to them
becoming overbought in the short term (particularly silver) and this is
once again a paper profit taking and technical driven, speculative sell
off as seen in the surge in frenzied dealing and large spike in
trading volumes in silver futures in New York.

Gold’s resilience is further confirmation of massive buying of gold
by creditor nation central banks which should reassure bullion owners
and offer support to silver.

GoldCore
Silver in Nominal USD Terms – 1971 to May 2011 (Weekly)

Some nervous physical silver buyers and more speculative physical buyers
have sold today and this week but those buying for diversification and
financial insurance are strong hands and have not sold. Indeed,
physical buying and buying the dip has continued yesterday and today.

A correction, possibly sharp, was expected after the 28% rise in
prices in April alone and the sharp rise seen so far in 2011. Support
may be seen at $35/oz but experience shows that paper driven sell offs
in the futures markets in New York can surprise to the downside.

GoldCore
COMEX Silver Inventories – 1 Year (Daily)

GoldCore
Cross Currency Rates

Inflation risk (and the possibility of stagflation and hyperinflation)
today mean that cash can become trash very fast and thus international
equities, international government bonds (high credit; very short
duration) and gold remain prudent asset allocations.

The cash component of a portfolio should probably include some local
currency and a combination of creditor nation fiat currencies and of
course silver and gold.

Savers need to protect themselves from local currency risk and
diversifying savings through ownership of bullion continues to be
prudent.

Gold

Gold is trading at $1,501.40/oz, €1,012.54/oz and £910.27/oz.

Silver

Silver is trading at $37.72/oz, €25.45/oz and £22.87/oz.

Platinum Group Metals

Platinum is trading at $1,796/oz, palladium at $720/oz and rhodium at $2,250/oz.

 

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Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:36 | 1242835 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Actually, once a bar leaves the Comex system ITS VALUE RISES. 

If a Comex futures holder exercises and stands for delivery they can take theirs bars out without paying a fee. 

Allocated storage is NOT the same as physical ownership.  The owner has a PHYSICAL PIECE OF PAPER representing ownership of an asset CONTROLLED BY SOMEONE ELSE.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:34 | 1242839 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Don't need to.  They don't have any.  Just like Canada's only bullion bank is empty, so are all the others.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/latest-gold-fraud-bombshell-canadas-onl...

Christ, no-one turn on your sprinkler systems if you live near Math Man.  He'll be up on the roof like a fucking Katrina victim.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:49 | 1242917 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Believe what you want....     I've tried to warn you.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:06 | 1242972 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Thanks I do appreciate your caring and compassionate manner of educating the rubes. However, I would probably feel better with the keys to the Ferrari..

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 15:15 | 1244528 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

They put them in "allocated" storage and charge you fees for a bar that does not exist, right? You expect me to trust the fascists at JPM and GS? If I can not see the bar, it does not exist. All of these paper markets are corrupt to the core.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:43 | 1242555 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The funny part is that you don't realize that you no longer get a full ounce of silver for every share you redeem.  Do you think they run the fund for free?

So stupid.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:57 | 1242643 Math Man
Math Man's picture

What are you talking about? SLV is .9763 ounces of silver.

The arb is only pennies - go back and check the tape.  You'll find the low print on SLV (in NAV) was below the low print in Silver Spot...  silver was being arbed out all fucking day yesterday.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:59 | 1242655 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Then where is it?

SHOW ME THE MONEY!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:09 | 1242705 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Bullion banks, fucktard. 

You keep looking for institutional size in the retail channel.  It never gets there.

You can buy as much as you want and have it placed in allocated storage at a bullion bank.

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:38 | 1242858 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes it does.  My own local dealer had COMEX bars back in 2008, and APMEX ALWAYS had at least a dozen listed, and Tulving had hundreds.  Now my dealer has ZERO, APMEX has TWO, and Tulving has TEN.

If you try to take delivery on allocated storage from a bullion bank, they will fight you tooth and nail, because they don't have any, and would have to get it.  This is standard industry practice.  Bullion banks have been sued for this, but NOTHING has changed.

You are a wolf in sheep's clothing.  It is OBVIOUS to everyone here what you are.  Just fuck off.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:51 | 1242912 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Believe what you want.

Below $20 by the summer.

You still have time to get out.

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:04 | 1242961 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Why the fuck would anyone get out at $20/oz.?  If you buy physical with cash and hold it - you protect your wealth.  The deal is that you have to be patient enough for the price to beat the premium - then you're in the black if you have to redeem, rather than trade.  There is no f'n way in hell that in ten years Ag will be less than my cost average - a friggin silver quarter was worth .25 - now how much is it worth?  Think that trend is going to reverse?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:12 | 1243001 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Umm, sorry to bring this up as I am sure you are well aware of it. It's a little thing called inflation. It means those little cotton pieces of paper get less valuable in a relative way over time, an accelerating trend lately. If you buy a relatively rare metal with those pieces of paper the metal historically depreciates much less than the pretty printed paper. That is all it is that simple, now can I get the keys?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:29 | 1243086 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Paper, maybe.  Not physical.  

But then, you are too stupid to know the difference.  You are the high priest of the cargo cult.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 15:13 | 1244503 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

tmosley

 

Your second paragraph implies that a person who provided 100% margin on a futures contract and stood for delivery would have to get a lawyer to take possession. Is that the correct read of your statement?

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 23:53 | 1258040 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

how`s YOUR delivery success rate? Or did you just take the de facto default premium, sign the gag and call it `silver` like you were told? Wouldn`t blame ya if you did, you know. Did you turn around and stick it to them again? Wouldn`t blame you on that one either...these margin increases are like the manipulators trying to use a hornet`s nest as a fleshlight, no?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:15 | 1242757 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

i think any neutral observer would conclude you have an ulterior motive.

at first, i thought you might be a true believing jihadist for the cause. but after watching your very fast over the top, drooling posts day after day on all things negative silver i believe you're a paid shill.

whether it be for the comex or jpm or a short hedge fund i don't know. but you are being paid to attempt - attempt - to influence people.

may you lose all your money in a fair and just world.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:29 | 1242490 Kina
Kina's picture

Unfortunately we have gained a few JPM CFTC TPTB sockpuppets on any thread that mentions PMs. They are full of shit.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:34 | 1242505 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

LIESMAN has more hot pockets in his briefcase than the COMEX has Silver in it's vaults. This is going to play out for a while I wager

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:39 | 1242535 slowx
slowx's picture

These "I told you posts" are such bullshit.  They post on here because they are insecure little kids hiding in a fat man's body living at their parents house.  Wipe the donut powder off your face and go back to watching cartoons Math Man (who can't add 2+2) and What does it al (translation - What does it all mean when I haven't gotten laid in 7 years). 

Yes the beat down was expected.  Some people make the wrong calls.  But come on, silver is still up over 100% since October (at 37 dollars spot price).  You have had 5 margin raises in a week.  The reality is that the Fed will have to do qe3 because no one will buy the treasuries once qe2 ends.  So helicoptor Ben will print more money this fall and silver will be above 70 by late fall and over 100 by next Spring.

Care to make a bet Math genius?  If I am wrong I will buy your favorite dvd set of cartoons.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:12 | 1242745 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Good post... I was about to puke from all the Troll Gas wafting over this board today.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:39 | 1242536 bill40
bill40's picture

Thank God for this site is all I can say. Being able to second guess the big boys rigging the market has made me a tidy sum. Like some others I got out of paper and am going physical which seems to be easier in the UK.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:40 | 1242556 antidisestablis...
antidisestablishmentarianismishness's picture

Isn't this one of those "irrelevant plunges" that are meaningless when holding for store of value?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:58 | 1243263 Hushups
Hushups's picture

Not irrelevant, this is a plunge that allows you to increase your store value.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:48 | 1242585 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

The more PMS rose the more questions were being asked about inflation and weak paper currencies.

They had to do something, at least for the short run to try and crush the criticisms.

 

Fortunately, for those of us that can think, we don't need to be told how to interpret what is going on. 

For the rest of you, keep buying that Bernanke paper.  It will never be out of stock, there will always be plenty. 

 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:55 | 1242633 earnulf
earnulf's picture

I find it quite "enlightening" to see the paper price of silver and compare it to the auction price online.    1oz eagles are still selling for 46-50 dollars an ounce.     Even today, the local "sellers" are still asking above $45 for their physical.      

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:01 | 1242652 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LcKcXpCDE&feature=feedu

Part 6- The Paper Silver Manipulation Game at all time Highs

Listen to this video, it's informative.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:59 | 1242674 jpalm
jpalm's picture

I look at it this way:

In the event of the 99.99% chance that our dollar does crash, the "silver bugs" will have been right and I will be ahead of the game. If, by some miracle, our republic is restored to it's orginal glory and the dollar increases dramatically then, even with my silver at near zero, I will be able to profit from our newly revived free market economy.

Let's take a vote on which one will occur first, shall we?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:09 | 1242724 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

The bigger story this week is the unwind in the metals complex.  Dr. Copper is breaking down.  Traders finally realize that hidden inventory build in China in bonded warehouses (ie. available for export) has exploded and made a surplus look like a shortage.  Any minor stumble in demand could send copper to 2.50.  Shorting the fourth quartile cost producers looks like the trade.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/29/530461/chinese-copper-financi...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:41 | 1242861 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

Good.  If copper collapses I'll use more of it to Make Things.  If silver collapses I'll buy a lot more junk coins.  If FRN's become more valuable I'll get more Goods for my labor.  If FRN's go to toilet paper status I'll have something real as savings.  With PM metals prices high, cigarettes, booze, chocolate, coffee, or anything else that is a luxury, keeps a decent length of time, and hasn't zoomed along with metals are decent savings vehicles for the relatively poor.  Nickel rolls are still good, too.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:17 | 1243042 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

+1000.  Well said.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:14 | 1242750 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Silver is the canary in the "risk" coal mine.  It's showing us, its own very small way, what it means when a product or a market tries to shed risk.  Canaries don't like carrying crowbars if they don't have to and that's what we're seeing.  This is like a miniature version of what's going to happen in residential real estate when down payments of 60% are the norm. 

It drives the price down, but then it unleashes a race to outspend as the inflation dam breaks.  Watch silver and you're watching your future.  Here's a link to the April 15th call for a $15 correction.

http://tradewithdave.com/?p=6255

Dave Harrison

www.tradewithdave.com

 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:58 | 1243363 LostPosterity
LostPosterity's picture

nevermind...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:16 | 1242760 z123
z123's picture

sad story for silver going to $150, $15 is closer than $150

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:24 | 1242786 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Basically, JPM was saved to fight another day. Once silver is stabilized, which is soon ($35-38 Range) we will see a fierce rally back. We may be stuck in a trading range for the next couple of months, but much more money is still to be made.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:27 | 1242796 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Silver is a yellow metal too.

http://tradewithdave.com/?p=6262

Dave Harrison

www.tradewithdave.com

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:28 | 1242799 txsmithfix
txsmithfix's picture

At least life is not boring!

Gold, Silver and Jacketed Lead. My PM's

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:30 | 1242813 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I warned everyone we are at the point where $5 Silver moves would happen both up and down.

The manipulators are in the process of covering their (paper) shorts. They are driving the (paper) price down as hard as possible and damn the consequences.

What are the consequences you ask? Open your eyes and see it happening now. Physical Silver is rapidly disappearing world wide despite high premiums and commissions. Even the scratch and dent industrial stuff have high premiums now as physical dealers take advantage of this rush into physical. People invested in ETF's are converting their paper to physical in Silver and Gold. This last margin increase caused everyone to realize the music is about to stop and are picking chairs to jump on. Comex, SLV et al have run dry due to Chinese actions demanding physical delivery. The physical spot is still ~$48 now and will soon spike higher despite whatever the paper spot is for fiat silver happens to be at any given time. Go ahead and try to buy physical @ paper spot, they will laugh at you. The Silver Hammer is drawing back to deliver a hard blow to the manipulators.

 

Thor is coming with his hammer and vengeance.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:30 | 1243107 Ty
Ty's picture

A key indicator that I watch for the physical investment demand, is the premium on 90%  "doomsday" US coinage. It has been offered at a discount leading up to the peak, from bigger dealers, showing that the demand was actually slacking. It shows frenzy mentality was prevalent, and would need to subside to continue, assuming there was no cornering of the market actually happening, as purported.

During the runups, the 90% typically trades at a premium over spot, as people want the smaller portions to use for exchange -assuming a societal breakdown scenario.

It should trade at discount due to cost to melt, so that is the basis of the indicator.  Surely I agree that demand is strong, but its still available out there.

 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:35 | 1245489 Nacho Libre
Nacho Libre's picture

Dollar Rally!  USA! USA! USA! Bring on the velocity baby.  Hey silver bugs... Ever think about buying real estate in AZ or NV.  I bet you can take your profits and buy a nice piece of property to step away from the fall of the republic.  Time to buy a house.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:37 | 1242845 bvrulez
bvrulez's picture

question: how does that argument work: "the selling in paper is driving the silverprice down while physical demand stays strong." ? i mean, the forwards are down a bit today, but they were not yesterday for example. what is down is the spot market. so how does this argument work out? i dont get that.

would appreciate an explanation

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:18 | 1243333 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

Paper is still driving....traders are driving it...as much as I'd like to say otherwise.

If you'd been buying the precious for years...you would have noticed the premiums on gold being priced to silver the way that silver is to gold presently. Go get some silver and expect to pay north of 13%...unless your dealing with a "smallish" desperado on Craig's List....it's premiums are more than triple that of gold. For years it was the other way around and silver languished in the doldrums of "under the radar" with depressed prices and small premiums...it's flipped 180 with gold...hence the big move in the GSR. Dealers are not moving their premiums back down in silver because they know the assault on price discovery mechanism will continue via the paper traders.

The war for price discovery is still being waged in the silver pits.

The "Longs" are a rag-tag unit...and terribly unorganized...with no leaders guiding them. They "suckered" others to join their ranks but offered no "cover support". They are tactically inferior to their Bullion Bank counterparts. The greedy "late to the party" players came for a cash premium settlement in March...and were met with the "Shorts" calling their bluff. I'm sure it came as quite a surprise since the Comex is primarily a trading floor for fiat lovers. Call it a bloody chess game...where they were offered up as "pawns" by their own side...so that larger groupings could stand strong....and exact their premium extortion plots upon the "Shorts".

Your witnessing the retracement to what was March pricing (36-ish)....add 25% premium and it gets pushed to 45 if they can hold some of the battle line.

Until they get Joe six pack on board in more significant numbers and take substantial physical off the market and into the cubby-holes of their homes in strong hands fashion....the volatility roller coaster will continue.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:36 | 1242852 drom
drom's picture

I will be looking to relaod on my physical stack if it gets to $36

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:45 | 1242897 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The paper and physical markets have separated. Physical spot is $48 and will soon hit $50 despite whatever the paper silver spot happens to be.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:17 | 1243354 bvrulez
bvrulez's picture

i bought silver maple leafs today online for 30 euros inkluding 7% tax. i did the same yesterday for a bit more. so what do you mean with spotmarket being up to nearly $50? is that in the US shops? what is the price on comex? aint there a spotprice? isnt that price what the Turd is always printing from bloomberg?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:49 | 1242908 swissinv
swissinv's picture

any toughts on this posted on GATA.org?

 

Hinde Capital's 'Silver Criticality' study Section:

8:35a ET Thursday, May 5, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Hinde Capital's new study, "Silver Criticality -- Why Silver Might Crash," has been posted in the clear at the investment house's Internet site here:

http://www.hindecapital.com/docs/hil_reports/HindeSight%20Investor%20Let...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:04 | 1242965 damnitalready
damnitalready's picture

If CME is raising margins again on the 9th, does that mean silver's going lower next week?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:03 | 1242970 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/us-regulator-probes-reasons-for-silver-s...

cute little article devoid of key details...

LOL City Wire sponsored by JP Morgan per their ad banner

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:09 | 1242989 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

This is what sucks about trying to trade the PMs. You can see everything clearly and be 100% correct in your fundamental analysis but the Forces of Darkness can be so powerfully aligned against you that it simply doesn't matter.

Exactly right, TF.


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:12 | 1243004 Ty
Ty's picture

Guys,

The story that the margin increases are 1) illegitimate, and 2) causing the dive in price, are both incorrect.

 

Price dive on margin hike: Open interest is rising the past couple of days. That would not be the case if longs were quitting (or reducing size) because of the margin hike. This shows that the quitters are being replaced faster than they are quitting.  Check the cme.com "build a report" for futures on metals and you can see for yourself. Net change on open interest has been positive the past couple of days.  Looks like value buyers are stepping in here. I am.

Margin increases illegitimate. Those are there to protect the participants and exchanges from going broke. If they didn't increase the margins you could not be sure there was enough money there for the winners to be paid by the losers.  The more volatility the more you have to put up to show you can cover a big move, [think limit] where there isn't an opportunity to actually get stop loss traded out of where someone "just couldn't conceive of silver moving".  This is reasonable action when ANY commodity goes parabolic.  If they go broke being overleveraged, then the winner wouldn't get paid by the loser, as is supposed to happen. (Exchanges would be on the hook, hence the margin hike as a precaution)

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:20 | 1243373 bvrulez
bvrulez's picture

2nd part excellent!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:20 | 1243374 bvrulez
bvrulez's picture

2nd part excellent!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:13 | 1243005 Crispy
Crispy's picture

longjohn - Where the hell do you buy your silver from? I can buy a few thousand right now at 40 even

 

Dont be a sucker...those premiums are terrible

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:40 | 1243135 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Better yet Crispy, where do you buy yours from?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:16 | 1243351 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

No shit! He has not been pricing physical Silver and Gold for delivery. Paper spot has no relation to physical at all now.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:10 | 1243008 Blorf
Blorf's picture

Physical demand is going to be carpet bombed by silver pouring out of SLV.  They helped you corner the market on the way up, they will pound you on the way down.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:51 | 1243526 Creed
Creed's picture

Physical demand is going to be carpet bombed by silver pouring out of SLV.  They helped you corner the market on the way up, they will pound you on the way down.

 

silver flowing from SLV is probably going straight back into JPM vaults to be delivered from COMEX

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 15:26 | 1244586 unununium
unununium's picture

That thought does not square with the belief that silver was being leased and sold out the back door on the way up.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:20 | 1243045 z123
z123's picture

$37, going so fast

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:23 | 1243058 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture
'Now you don't talk so loud
Now you don't seem so proud
About having to be scrounging for your next meal.

How does it feel
How does it feel
To be without a home
Like a complete unknown'

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:27 | 1243080 Kingbingo
Kingbingo's picture

Maybe I have gone slightly mental, but I find myself in the curious position of buy paper silver shorts but physical silver bars at the same time.

The reason being is I am looking at the silver price and just don’t feel confident about a support at $38, I can see it going to £30 possibly lower over the next few week, where as a long term buyer I’m happy to be converting gradually into physical (which incidentally is in no short supply in London, I can go to my local dealer and buy as many bars as I like). So I see short paper and long physical a way of saying I don’t really know, but would rather space out my physical purchase over the coming weeks possibly months, remaining largely price neutral as I go. If I get surprised on the upside selling my shorts is a few clicks away. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:51 | 1243225 baseball13
baseball13's picture

Cheers Kingbingo!

   When you next visit your local dealer ask him if he has a lot of Indian buyers. Supposedly the Indians have increased their purchases of PM's in the last year.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 15:09 | 1244479 ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture

I would've said well-played a couple days ago, but now what's the point? Silver's going to bounce back up into the 50-60 range.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 15:24 | 1244562 unununium
unununium's picture

Congratulations King, you are now JPM.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:29 | 1243090 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Curious on people's opinions on different types of physical silver.

What do you think on the type of physical you hold?  Does it matter whether it's a physical round or actual coinage like the Eagle/Maple Leaf/Philharmonic etc.

 

With the premiums so high on coins does it make more sense to buy bars and rounds?

I have all coins maple leafs and eagles and a small quantity of philharmonics but it looks like bars and rounds making more sense.

 

Will it matter what type of silver you hold in a scenario where TSHTF and paper money is worthless?

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:47 | 1243203 baseball13
baseball13's picture

They type of silver you hold depends on your needs and your reasons for holding silver...

Any (physical) silver will would fulfill a play strictly on silver prices. The smallest premium you'd pay would be on junk silver or pre-1965 us coinage. Collectable coins have a higher markup, but could return more than just the move in the physical silver price. If TSHTF, then the most recognizeable forms of 'legitimate' silver would be valued highest as a form of currency - junk silver, US mint silver - eagles, Canadian Mint silver. Perhaps a seconday level of accepted silver currency would be bars by widely known producers.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:25 | 1243411 Kingbingo
Kingbingo's picture

I just buy whatever has the lowest premium that I can afford. Thus I buy Kilo Silver bars and Krugerands one onuce gold. These are alot less pretty than over forms, but I just look at the premium. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:34 | 1243115 z123
z123's picture

looks like a close at 35 today and 30 tomorrow after NFP

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:27 | 1243410 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Yup, 25 Monday, 20 Tuesday, 15 Wednesday, 10 Thursday, 5 Friday. The following Monday it'll be free, and then Tuesday they'll be paying you $5 an ounce to take it off their hands.

Troll much?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:36 | 1243123 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

I am truly amazed that the whole world and his dog were all over Silver when it was rising and even Silver bugs were pointing to a parabolic rise.

SO what the hell do you call a sell off of $13 dollars in 4 days AND where are all the commentators now? Hyperbolic?? And who's around saying that it's ridiculous... NO ONE. All anyone is saying is $35 target this, $28 target that, whatever!

I hate to say it, but even the Gold and Silver bugs who talked the talk (and bailed without talking to anyone about THAT) are just as much of the problem as those people they sought to chastise.

This whole game is nothing but one-upmanship, bravado and BS.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:00 | 1243277 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

When you have an endless supply of paper money and the regulators and the administration in your pocket you can work wonders.

This is not a level playing field. It is being controlled by crooks of the highest order and who are capable of murder too

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1243378 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The paper game is crashing. This is what a Comex default looks like. Physical Silver is still up.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:40 | 1243133 adonisdemilo
adonisdemilo's picture

i think lots of people out there could be interested to be told by someone who really knows the facts, and the numbers involved, whether the Morgue will have to pony up the increased margin now required.

the reasons given for the hike in margin is risk management/exposure.

because the Morgue controls the whole damn thing, they probably are not considered to be at risk, so the increase doesn't apply to them anyway

just let them get on with it i say

the sooner they can't get any physical and are only able to play their paper games amongst themselves, the better 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:41 | 1243155 Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

No short-haired, yellow-bellied, son of tricky dicky
Is gonna mother hubbard soft soap me
With just a pocketful of FRNs
Money for dope
Money for rope

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:47 | 1243196 FlyPaper
FlyPaper's picture

Unfortunately we are trained to see wealth in terms of dollars.  At the end of the day, if you started with 100 oz of silver, you still have 100 oz of silver.  If you own a house and inflation kicks in - and 10 years later you still own the house: you have an asset - regardless of how the "market" supposedly values it.

I kind of look at the paper silver market the same as the housing market in 2008.  The market was so out of whack it was hard to establish value.  Silver appears to be in the same situation.

So long-term holders of physical: no problem - buy on dips.  If you are a short-term investor then you have to look at paper price action and trade accordingly. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:56 | 1243238 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

The CFTC did not institute position limits in time. They adjourned the meeting without taking decisions. This was clearly done to see that they protected the interests of the bear cartel who are now using HFT to search out all stop losses and take them out . Trading volumes have been huge.

The Sunday evening/ Monday morning ( NZ time) drop is enough to confirm the manipulation and bar them from further trading. But it appears that none of these regulators wish to do their job.

Resigning would be too easy a way. They need to be put behind bars without bail while a non partisan group do the investigation.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:04 | 1243250 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

comex silver inventory chart has a couple upright declined shs it can't catch to complete; the suicide formation.

 

y=zero is built into that chart.

 

(technically speaking) the comex will default.

 

fundamentally speaking, YTF hasnt it already happened.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:57 | 1243260 z123
z123's picture

will it go to $30 after NFP

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:12 | 1243326 gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

my pants have a inverse relation to silver right now.  e-z ess ellllll

 

usd gone parabolic  lolz

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:14 | 1243353 latizziforchizzi
latizziforchizzi's picture

I bought physical at $20, $26, & 30. If spot went to $10, I would be buying. It doesn't matter what the price is. It will be worth $500(or more) one day when there is no paper trading anymore. I heard it like this. The underworld manipulators can supress the spot price with paper. Try swimming to the bottom of a lake holding a beach ball. You can hold on to it for so long before it is going to come back up with a vengance!

Sure they have influenced the sheeple to sell, but not those who understand what real money is who are holding physical!

Never keep your stash all in one place!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:28 | 1243416 uranian
uranian's picture

the premium on ebay for 100oz bars of silver tends to be around 3% over spot. I don't know why anyone would sell at all on ebay given that you're looking at approx 15% in fees, but anyway, the premium at the moment is 17%, suggesting that there is indeed strength in the physical market. we've been here before (the 2008 debacle), but it's nevertheless interesting to see a chunk of silver that has a paper price of 3,635.94$ selling for 4,395.64$.

http://www.24hgold.com/english/silver_market_premium.aspx

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:41 | 1243483 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Continued physical demand indeed. The stealth chooper that went down in Usama bin dead's courtyard had an intresting feature, from Aviation week.

"According to experts at Aviation Week, the paint finish is a "silver loaded finish". This is designed not to reduce radar signature but rather to make it harder to detect the helicopter using infrared sensors – either those in a fixed search-and-track network or, more likely in this context, those found in the seeker heads of portable anti-aircraft missiles.

Thanks to the demolition work carried out by the departing SEALs, it is impossible to know what other mods had been carried out on the wrecked chopper."

Silver, what can't it do?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:19 | 1243698 Chicago bear
Chicago bear's picture

Just ordered 1 oz Silver Eagles at $36.45 plus $3.75 over spot (premium went up from $3.60, which was up from $3.45 before that, and $2.99 before that, and occassionally $0.99 on special before that- won't see specials again). Last order was told there would be a 3 week back order. Today told there would be a 4-week back order. Silver Maples are available sooner as are generic 10-oz bars.  Not sure why Maples are disliked! 

Happy to cost-average the oz's, whether priced in dollars or measured by gravity.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:58 | 1243885 Hushups
Hushups's picture

I bought some yesterday when spot was sitting around $39. I went to the same online dealer today to consider buying a little bit more, now that spot is around $36. To my surprise (or lack of) I will be paying the same price today that I paid yesterday for the same amount of silver.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:01 | 1243923 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

gainsville has the New Zealand Silver Fiji's for $39.53 by wire $41.61 by credit card

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:10 | 1243946 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

.

The Fed is a fraud and must be abolished.

If Ben Bernanke decided today, that he wanted to create a trillion dollars at the push of a button and give half of it to himself and the other half to his closest cronies, he can do it, and nobody can stop him from doing so.

It's totally arbitrary, random and unlimited in size.

It's a monetary oligarchy with no oversight or audit.

And all the financial journalists all over the world constantly create and nurture the illusion of officiality and trustworthyness  around this fake and criminal private enterprise.

The Federal Reserve is not an institution.

Their issued linen is to the sheeple population what the glass beads were to the Native Indians when in 1492 they traded their gold to the Conquistadores in exchange for it.

Dollar = glass beads = worthless, since abundant and replicable
Gold = gold = valuable, since rare and non-replicable

 

Same applies to every other rare, genuine and non-replicable commodity,

especially energy storing commodities like food and oil / gas.

 

.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:15 | 1243981 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Bernank = Cortez the Killer

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 15:15 | 1244511 gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

BUNGEEEEEEEEEE

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!