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Silver Backwardation Doubles Overnight

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday we correctly predicted that the entire 10% silver correction would be momentarily taken out as the Comex news is properly digested. And so it continues - as silver is once again pennies away from $50 and a fresh new nominal all time high, we take a quick look at the futures curve where as expected the backwardation is confirming the "negative convexity" (yes, yes, we know silver is not a duration security) once the $50 stops are taken out will send silver surging to unseen before levels (which also considering it will be at a new record over $50 is pretty much intuitive). In the meantime, the chart below is the worst nightmare of anyone still holding short silver positions. While the near-far contract backwardation was about $0.75 yesterday, it has since doubled in less than 24 hours. We can't wait to see what surprising nuggets the Comex will bring us today.

And 5 day silver chart:

 

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Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:51 | 1215868 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Just sold a shitload more '64 Kennedy Halves to Apmex.  Hurry Sheeple.  Buy them before they're all gone.....LMFAO!!!!

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:55 | 1215893 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Looks like they are already gone, bro.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:15 | 1216385 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Got any more?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:22 | 1216749 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

I'm a retard so I Just sold a shitload more '64 Kennedy Halves to Apmex.  Hurry Sheeple.  Buy them before they're all gone.....LMFAO!!!!

 

Corrected for you

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:53 | 1215878 Lone Mad Minute...
Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

I'am climbing a wall of worry! This is gettin slipperier then a fish.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:56 | 1215885 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

it must be terrible to be on the wrong side of history being short silver. it's like betting for the romanov's in 1917.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:56 | 1215886 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Another record low in SIL/SLV.  Amazing how everyone is piling into physical and shorting the silver miners big.  Something big is gonna happen soon.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:57 | 1215902 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

but you said yesterday that diversification is for chumps, that all assets are rising together. so are you now saying everything is going to fall together including your widows and orphans portfolio?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:11 | 1215971 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Robo, do you still have that monster box of ASEs for sale at $44/ounce?  I didn't junk you, btw, but I'll take $2 below $46/ounce.

I'm in Pasadena.  I can meet you at CNI any day of the week.  But going to Inglewood would require me to bring along my Benelli M1 Super 90.  Just ignore the trench coat in this 85 degree weather.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:11 | 1215980 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

lol. good post.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:12 | 1215984 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its 'amazing' people want physical and not paper crap backed by nothing? Robo you are truly a moron.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:20 | 1216017 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Maybe that something big will be a "currency collapse" or perhaps even a "waterfall decline" that just never stops. A slow death, if you will.

Frankly they have some tricks up their sleaves still, but, at this point, they make little to no difference. I don't personally see this being an overnight collapse (I could very well be wrong) but I do see certain points for the US dollar triggering a faster collapse.

I think once the dollar finally digs its grave and hits 69 on the DXY or gold passes $2,000 we'll be in the territory for complete collapse.

</opinion>

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:49 | 1216224 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Silver miners are a very expensive out of the money call on silver prices, with operational, political, tax and strike risk added on. The worst thing is these risk factors increase as prices go higher...

Very few offer good value vs buying silver calls IMHO.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:55 | 1215890 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I just keep buying physical on every small decline. Some think it is over for silver. Well, we shall see.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:57 | 1215905 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

You're an idiot.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:07 | 1215964 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

must be terrible to be short.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:38 | 1216149 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Urine visible.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:21 | 1216753 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Says the guy losing money to the guy making money.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:13 | 1216372 akak
akak's picture

After reading some of his truly hysterical and spittle-flecked, outright Nadleresque rantings against silver and silver owners lately, I have lost all respect for "Baghdad Bob" Moriarty.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:11 | 1216696 Clay Hill
Clay Hill's picture

Fuckin' papah playaz.

Come get your spankin' Bitchez.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1oHne6LGEQ

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:02 | 1215899 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Yeah, ok, great.  Backwardation.  Blah, blah, blah.

 

Miners have not participated whatsoever in last 25% rise in silver metal.

 

This move is not real.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:07 | 1215946 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

the move is real in my world. my net worth has risen significantly. must be terrible to be short.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:27 | 1216064 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Funny how you are the arbiter of what is real and what isn't.

Especially considering how you have been nothing but wrong in your calls.

Why don't you leave interpretation of reality to those who have been able to do it successfully in the past?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:30 | 1216084 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

neither has copper or the dollar for that matter.  DX is down 2.7% since QE2 was announced..  the dollar slide hasn't even gotten started yet.. if your short the monetary metals you will be crushed.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:16 | 1217230 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

The Hunt Brothers did not consider miner participation when the price of Silver moved to $50 bucks in 1980.  The miners probably are mired in inactivity due to the fact that the inflation adjusted price for Silver from 1980 is around $130-$140 bucks per ounce.  The miners need $140 benchmark to be able to reconsider activating now dormant mining facilities. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:51 | 1217723 tmosley
tmosley's picture

IF they haven't been seized or otherwise ruined in the intervening years.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:57 | 1215900 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Daytraders take SLV to new highs....soon to be TASR, Books-a-Million, or Presstek.....I predict pain for silver  longs that buy in the 48-50 range...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:02 | 1215909 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

I am finally starting to notice a great enthusiasm towards silver, specifically my demographic. 17-25

http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=133187003&highlight=silve...

^The bodybuilding forums are some of the most visited on the net (traffic+user registration).

Healthy bull market. None of the posters seemed to have any interest in paper ETFs. Physical is in heavy demand!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:01 | 1215918 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

LEMMINGS!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:05 | 1215944 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Give them credit for taking initiative to store their labor in something other than worthless benny bucks.

love or hate the metal, isn't it great people are slowly but surely waking up?!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:16 | 1216006 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I am indifferent but i recognize a healthy rebellion when i see it.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:06 | 1215956 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

how can less than 1/10 of 1% of the population that own silver be lemmings?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:26 | 1216078 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

You lemmings buying silver up here are paying the equivalent to $75 for a frozen pizza.  You see the price go up and conclude the end of the world is nigh. 

 

Well guess what, you are all nothing but ants piling under a magnifying glass.  And soon you will all be roasted.  And I will laugh a satisfying laugh because I don't care for silver bugs.

 

Eat this!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:38 | 1216150 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Is that US$ or Z$?

You are certainly bitter, aren't you?  Why do you blame us for your foolishness?  You lost your own money.  Not us.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:04 | 1216318 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Me thinks he is an angry deflationist.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:21 | 1216406 akak
akak's picture

Perhaps he is a former disciple of Rick Ackerman (now apostate), or a member of the Douchinger Cult or a diehard Precherite, still searching in vain for that deflationary unicorn somewhere over the rainbow.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:36 | 1216514 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I do believe in deflationary unicorns. He is just a little shy right now.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:02 | 1216653 akak
akak's picture

LOL, he's been "a little shy" throughout all of monetary history.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:31 | 1217293 tmosley
tmosley's picture

He only comes out when gold is money.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:52 | 1217406 akak
akak's picture

Nice!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:05 | 1216311 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

So... your response to the silver bull market is to... name call those that see fundamental problems in the current economic system.

"You lemmings", "nothing but ants","I will enjoy your torture..."

Well, your comments demonstrate you to be a sociopathic narcissist who relies not on logical discussion to persuade people towards your point of view but rather bully and cajole in the attempt to make people feel insecure about their decisions.

Though I am a holder of precious metals I always try to read the contrarian point of view, but posts like this make it difficult.

Argue the economics.  If you can't, don't say anything.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:21 | 1216393 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Look at miner participation (or lack, thereof) in this recent spike.

 

Troll.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:45 | 1216567 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Money that would normally go into miners has gone into other new paper products, simply because people want exposure, but they don't want to have to do a bunch of research or expose themselves to the various extra risks inherent in mining.

But you wouldn't care to know anything about that, as you have set your bias and will lose 100% of your purchasing power trying to pursue it, and wind up an impoverished bitter old man.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:41 | 1216524 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Dammit this is unfair!
I am being outtrolled here!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:45 | 1216561 AVP
AVP's picture

 "I don't care for silver bugs"

Guess what, silver/gold bugs could careless what your broke-down broke ass thinks.

I'm sure you don't know that starvation is a very painful death, but you will.

Your jealousy of bugs is obvious and your stupidity knows no end.

The value of your posts is -273!

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:34 | 1217302 BlackChicken
BlackChicken's picture

WOW what a jerk-off, you should change your name to Thunderous Prick.

When I see your name, I think of Mad Max and the 'Thunderdome' and wonder if you are suffering from some internal conflict like Freud might have discussed; you are bashing a thing people are buying to provide some level of fiscal protection from a system that has lost its fucking mind, while projecting the Mad Max scenario at the same time.  Poor bastard (perhaps on more than one level).

I AM a silver bug and have been since $4.25 while adding to my physical position all the way up to $11.30 in 2008.  I have been listening to verbal vomit from thunderous pricks like you ever since, and been LMFAO the whole time.

Now, get the fuck out of your Mom's basement, and get on with what life you have left.  Most of the contributors on this site could probably buy and sell your little ass a multitude of times over.  Naive bitch...

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:11 | 1215983 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, b_B!  slewie sez:  don't dump it, pump it!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:23 | 1216439 moldygoat
moldygoat's picture

They can watch themselves lift gold in the reflection from their silver.

Love the lifters, so little required to keep them busy.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:00 | 1215914 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I heard the FOMC statement read on msnbc right after it was released.

You silver shorts need to learn fedspeak because the FOMC said it was ok to go long precious metals and you should cover your shorts ASAP. anyone who speaks fluent fed heard the message loud and clear.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:07 | 1215940 dollartheque@ya...
dollartheque@yahoo.com's picture

are all Silver ETFs dangerous to carry at these prices? or mostly the SLV?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:17 | 1216015 Putty
Putty's picture

If you have the ability and want to buy and hold silver (not trade it), why wouldn't you just buy physical?  ETFs to trade, physical to have and hold.  

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:23 | 1216032 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Yes and yes.

If you must ask cost, then too much!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:21 | 1216038 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

It's a a paper Ponzi pyramid scheme.

Nearly all ETF's do not allow the average trader to take the underlying asset.

If the US Dollar crashes to zero like the Wiemar Mark or ZIM Dollar what do you think you are going to get from the ETF? That's right, worthless US Dollars.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:07 | 1215941 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I like the bearish posts on silver. To me, that means a long way to go. And miners will get there. Gotta have patience, once the sheeples think gold not going back to $800, they may buy miners.

This is a long process, unless they apply the hand cuffs to Bernank.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:05 | 1215948 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I am thinking that Silver may actually hit 60 within a week.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:11 | 1215969 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

LMAO

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:25 | 1216057 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

You sold @ $28 or was is $22, I can't remember.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:39 | 1216159 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

fuck yeah, sold at $22...SHIT.

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:08 | 1216333 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Well Rusty, the end is getting close. You better get back on board at some point or you will be left to the dust bin that is history. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:29 | 1216463 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

I should mention that I didn't sell my entire stash, matey.

 

argh.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:15 | 1215970 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

i started to say yesterday that you ought to sell your puts for profits when you were up $13k, and buy the physical. then hedge with puts if you just had to be bearish. but i didn't think you would listen to reason.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:24 | 1216042 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Hey there you are.

I don't think it will be within a week, but I def see it clearing that end of May, come July followed by a (likely) correction due to Q2 profits and GDP outlooks. I don't think it's impossible to get another S&P downgrade for the US, either.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:25 | 1216077 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I think by end of May we will be well into correction mode in Silver.  But there is definitely a lot of strength now coming off of Bernie's speech.  Enough that I could see an acceleration of buying over the next 5-8 trading days.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:38 | 1216152 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Obviously self respect means nothing to a whore like yourself.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:21 | 1216426 akak
akak's picture

But you told us two weeks ago that silver would absolutely be crashing THIS week, troll.

What's the matter, did you get racked in the crystal balls again?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:42 | 1216551 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

A good trader sucks on any boob that's put in his face. When it runs dry he doesnt rant, he looks for more boob.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:22 | 1216765 akak
akak's picture

Not a wise strategy when that boob supplies not milk but drain cleaner.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:32 | 1216814 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I said by summer dipshit.  That's why I bought october puts.  Try to keep up.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:48 | 1217039 akak
akak's picture

No, two weeks ago you were saying that silver would be plunging RIGHT NOW.

But I agree, it is indeed hard to keep up with your ever-mutating lies and mutually contradictory web of trollish disinformation and pro-bankster propaganda.

And tell us again what utterly PERFECT timing you had in purchasing ALL of your supposedly physical precious metals:

by Dangertime
on Sat, 04/16/2011 - 10:27
#1175694

I beat you, my coins were at $265 and my silver is only 100 oz bars at $4.75.

 

 

So tell me, are you and Jon Nadler drinking buddies?  I don't doubt for a second that he has accumulated quite of few of those gin blossoms on his mug while drinking alone to drown his misery as gold and silver daily make a mockery of his disingenuous and anti-intellectual PM bashing, but we all know that drunks do love to share their misery and imbibe with others of like mind.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:44 | 1216865 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

"But there is definitely a lot of strength now coming off of Bernie's speech"

that's some funny shizle, right there.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:24 | 1216063 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Get out of your short positions. Get long and stay long.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:11 | 1216694 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

That's what she said.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:52 | 1216591 jomama
jomama's picture

cool story bro, now if you could find someone who actually gives a fuck what you think...?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:13 | 1217506 eisley79
eisley79's picture

------------------------------------
by Dangertime
on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:35

Forgiven, the peak is in for this run.  We will see $50 again but not likely for another year.  You still have time to sell and restock with even more this summer.
------------------------------------

 

I see you dangertime....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgCLURcZUuw

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:16 | 1217527 Campagnolo
Campagnolo's picture

why not...silver is in a "cup and handle" movement right now....we will see a low ($47.5?)in the next days to then run to $54, pause, a then boom!, $65 by May....let see

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:36 | 1217630 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Dangertime  -  you predicted Silvers run was over tapping out at $50 and said it appears it was all over, you were shorting... i said a bounce back to $50 was appearing to be underway, not a drop toward $30, but you didn't answer back buddy?!!

..now here you are predicting $60 ...are you Robots' twin brother and equally unconscious of your previous statements?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:14 | 1215973 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Rolling on the floor...

Wal-Mart: Our shoppers are 'running out of money' http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/27/news/companies/walmart_ceo_consumers_under_pressure/index.htm
Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:20 | 1216008 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

attention K-Mart shopperZ!

wal-mart shopperZ are now in backwardiZation!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:18 | 1216019 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Oh thats classic - BULLISH for knockin' over 7 Eleven's

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:34 | 1216121 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

That's a refreshing article, but could I rewrite one paragraph?

Wal-Mart shoppers, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, typically shop in bulk at the beginning of the month when their paychecks come in.

 

Wal-Mart shoppers, many of whom receive government hand-outs via the SNAP program (AKA: food stamps, administered by JP Morgan), typically shop in bulk at the beginning of the month when their welfare checks come in. Most urban center Wal-Marts typically run out of cheetos, potato chips and donuts within hours of the money hitting the welfare takers' accounts.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:46 | 1216192 Americant Expat
Americant Expat's picture

I'm long donuts. It worked for Ponzi, C. or was he selling DETF's

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:34 | 1216481 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

shop in bulk at the beginning of the month

This is something I can't get my head around. Food stamp people buying 4-5 boxes of krispy creme donuts at top price at the beginning of the month. Donuts are stale by day two and not edible after that.

?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:12 | 1217501 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

When they go stale, you just pop them in the toaster oven.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:25 | 1216454 aerojet
aerojet's picture

The last marginal buyers?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:11 | 1215979 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Does anybody remember when it's "Talk like a Pirate Day" here at ZH?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:31 | 1216088 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

arrriight ya fukin bilge rat degenerate swine!

listen:  if we don't take this $50 out, now, we can always do it in another...

...31 years!!!

now, put yer FRNs into it and buy, dammit, BUY!!!

and fire those 16-pounders at the damned banksters, too, ya spawn 0' pond scum!

AARRGHHGHGGhhhgghhrrrghgh!!!


Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:41 | 1216168 Bullionaire
Bullionaire's picture

Sept. 19 each year.  Aaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrgh...SILVER, ME HEARTIES!!!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:12 | 1215985 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Thank goodness for The Bernanke.   I've been able to unload a lot of generic silver on eBay in the past 4 to 6 weeks at some nice prices.   Taking the cash and trading it for cheap Mint silver products and Silver Eagles.   Making the alchemists of yore very jealous:  Turning paper into silver and gold.   Thanks, Ben.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:14 | 1215987 Wynn
Wynn's picture

PM's are nice, but we need dollars to live. I hope Timmy plans to defend this bitch sometime soon.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:14 | 1215999 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

How would he do that? Stop printing and pumping?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:22 | 1216030 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Dollars fund the war machine, that is it.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:13 | 1215996 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Dangertime! Dangertime! Dangertimes PM shorts have now put him in a cardboard box under some overpass.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:25 | 1216450 akak
akak's picture

What do you mean, "now"?

Underneath bridges is where trolls always live!  It has the added advantage of usually supplying them a firm concrete floor, which tends to inhibit the urge to dig for all that easy $5 silver that's everywhere just below the surface.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:20 | 1216009 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Well, silver longs have the following in their favor:

1.) Bernank dollar death party

2.) JPM Short Squeeze

3.) Manic public interest

4.) Supply problems

5.) Sovereign wealth interest

6.) Large hedge fund interest

7.) Paulson

8.) Turd

9.) Backwardation

10.) Blythe betrayal of Jamie for hookers and coke in Argentina

Nevertheless, I would expect some resistance in the $50-52 area before it is clear sailing above.

Trade the paper.  Horde the physical.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:21 | 1216036 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

well this is a change in tune. are you a believer today?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:21 | 1216046 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You forgot that silver defines monie and dollars do not.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:51 | 1216235 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

You need to add 'Bernanke Press conferences' to this list. If he just did a press conf. every months or two it would really help.

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=832

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:30 | 1216472 aerojet
aerojet's picture

The obvious bet is never the right one, though.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:59 | 1217381 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

oooooo, that's deep man. You forgot:
'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'
'my dad can beat up your dad'
'a ray of sunshine does not a summer make'
'it's a sin to steal a pin'
'every cloud has its silver lining'
"There comes a time in the affairs of man where he has to take the bull by the tail and face the situation' (WC Fields)
"I intend to live forever. So far so good." (Steve Wright)

As you were standing in the street one day, as quiet as could be, a great big ugly man came up, and tied his horse to thee.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:21 | 1216022 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

hot off the press: gentleman jim sinclair sends warm regards to robottrader, dangertime, digger bickus, math man and thunder dome. said he hoped he didn't leave anybody out.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:34 | 1216123 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

There are BS Trolls (before silver), but we do not need to mention them by name.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:21 | 1216025 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Copper and Cotton correcting hard, charts are breaking down.. SLV is complelely over-bot....going short here....like to live in danger...ha ha  short 200 slv puts with a 50 strike

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:52 | 1216243 The Axe
The Axe's picture

quickest 20,000 that I have made in a long time.....u welcome

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:59 | 1216271 Royal Wulff
Royal Wulff's picture

You do realize that selling a put is a long position, don't you? I didn't think so.

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:41 | 1216540 Putty
Putty's picture

Options newbie, but are you sure you got that right?  You are selling puts, and thinking you are going short?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:22 | 1216051 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

Buy Silver........Crash JPM

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:23 | 1216058 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Greetings, to all silver holders and haters. First post for me here, though I've been reading ZH for about a year.

Bought some uncirculated Washington quarters on ebay on Tuesday (?), I think it was, when silver was down in the 45-46 range. Actually bought for less than spot+10% including shipping, which I consider a bargain, then used my ebay bucks (from prior silver purchases) and it ended up being spot -15%. I am not rich, so the purchase wasn't huge, but my stash is growing and it's already worth much more than what I paid.

To those who wish for a sell-off, or "over the cliff" event, keep wishing, but if it does, I'll just buy more. My basis is about $16 but keeps rising. Been buying since 2004 and pine for the days when silver was under $10.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:08 | 1216327 tickhound
tickhound's picture

"and pine for the days when silver was under $10."

Welcome... Ah, nostalgia.  Not for $10 silver, but for those who said $10 was still $4 too high. 

To them I say...

"If you didn't like it at $10, you're gonna hate it at $50."

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:14 | 1217521 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

And now that it's $50, they are here venting their anger.  No need to encourage them.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:44 | 1216075 cabernet
cabernet's picture

To me silver is at a very interesting juncture. There is so much monetary inflation in the system already to legitimately argue that silver is on its way to $150/oz. Should there be a true short squeeze due to a lack of physical at the commodities exchanges, we might see the price go even higher. The FEDs balance sheet is as big as an overstuffed pig. I give the probability of a bull move at 65% or so.

On the other hand, there are more weak hands in the silver market now. These folks could be easily spooked and run to the exits should we get some downward momentum. So an ugly correction is possible. I think the quick 10% correction was driven by the weak hands. I however give this just a 20% chance of manifesting.

I give a 15% probability on the super whipsaw scenario. In this scenario, the short squeeze pushed prices sharply higher. Before the squeeze can fully express itself, the regulators step in like they did in 1980. If memory serves, the exchange forced the longs to liquidate by limiting the ability of new buyers to enter the market, and longs could only liquidate. The drop from that point will be swift and severe. No question, silver is the most exciting market to watch and play these days.

http://www.TheAngryGrapes.Com

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:28 | 1216798 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

ah, "but what's better than silver soaring as all other prices decline."  save for Gold of course.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:31 | 1216087 mynhair
mynhair's picture

but...but...GPL is preparing to explode up!  Why not ride it?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:45 | 1216182 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

Are you talking about the stock Great Panther Silver?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:20 | 1216419 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Great Panther is low quality,insiders continually flip options.

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:24 | 1216446 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

Ah....I'm not a day trader.  I just buy and sell....after a few days of holding.  Great Panther has actually made me dough.  :)

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:44 | 1216547 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Congrats,they have done very well with their SP since the Amex listing.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:32 | 1216110 eftian
eftian's picture

Math man is just upset because his family is still in so much debt from when his Great Grandfather in Weimar Germany shorted gold at 1200 marks/oz and covered at 10trillion/oz. His family has had to pay this debt by making shyster videos so hes kinda bitter about PM`s...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:36 | 1216118 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Now you only need a parrot on your shoulder in order to be admitted into the decent pirate club.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:39 | 1216158 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Arrghh, matey. Turn 'em into shark bait, I say. Over ye go!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:11 | 1216351 mt paul
mt paul's picture

is that a pariot in your pants ...

or are you just glad to see

silver over 48 $

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:44 | 1216175 Transformer
Transformer's picture

The miners are going nowhere until the ETF fiasco happens.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:53 | 1216233 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Why is that? By ETF fiasco, do you mean if the ETF's are found to have loaned all the silver out and not gotten it back?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:06 | 1216324 Transformer
Transformer's picture

Loaned it out?  They never had it. Or at least, never had very much.

When SLV, GLD, and the other paper ETFs go bust.  All who own these get screwed.  Then everybody realizes the only way to play silver/gold in stocks is with the miners, not ETFs (Sprott excepted).

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:49 | 1216223 Korrath
Korrath's picture

Perhaps it's not so much that silver and gold are getting more expensive, so much as the purchasing power of the dollar is erroding to the point where it requires more and more fiat to buy the same amount of silver and gold?  

We are not headed toward the end or the world.  Anyone who's envisioning a Mad Max, AR15 + canned food senario will be deeply disappionted.  We are headed toward Portugal circa 1968 ( total destruction of the middle class ), then on to USA circa 1930, minus the gold standard; under those conditions, PMs should hold their value better then any other asset class.

 

Now, the end of affordable oil...well, that's a different story; but let's deal with one crisis at a time fellas...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:57 | 1216261 roosters
roosters's picture

Walked into my store yesterday to one of my employees selling her old coins left to her by her father - all silver vintage.  Asked what she was doing and she just said getting rid of this junk, don't need it.  I pulled out an 1886 Morgan, 1921 morgan and a 1923 peace dollar and asked her what she wanted for them - she said oh, they are only good for a dollar.  I was stuned...  asked her if she had any idea what the hell they were and she said junk.  I bought em...  Some people have no clue what they have and think it's junk when you tell em it's worth something.

 

I have no idea what they are "worth" but the silver's worth something in them, let alone the age.

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:04 | 1216303 Royal Wulff
Royal Wulff's picture

You must treat your employees well.

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:03 | 1216317 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

You must be awfully proud of yourself.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:28 | 1216475 jomama
jomama's picture

way to treat her like an inferior human being.  just wait until she figures it out.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:09 | 1217493 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Yah I'd be wary if she offers to fix you a coffee over the next little while.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:31 | 1216812 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

You are the opposite of CG's Johnny Silverseed. That was a good teaching opportunity to peel a sheep's eyelids open.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:59 | 1216290 bobby02
bobby02's picture

The volume/open interest paints a pretty picture too.

 

Those 2012-2015 futures are ultra-liquid - what they are telling us cannot possibly be wrong. Time to bet that Argentinian farm.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:06 | 1216316 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

Look.....silver is down a buck.  That's the Plunge Protection Team at work.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:12 | 1216367 r101958
r101958's picture

All those Walmart shoppers are probably buying silver instead of plastic junk. Also, I am happy that I bought 75% of my silver when it was in the $14-$22 range. I am really not worrying about a 10 or 20% correction. From all activity I have seen lately there is a large upside yet.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:18 | 1216389 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Looking at a basket of silver stocks and there is a concerted attack right now that looks destined to fail.  Too quick and too correlated for this to be anything but the shorts making their daily push.

My prediction is that this is today's daily dip to buy.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:35 | 1216494 drom
drom's picture

So whats next ZH. A correction, stomping out $50.  Whats your short term prediction this time around.  Im considering buying some protection here.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:46 | 1216555 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You should buy protection and sell some out of the money covered calls.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:40 | 1216518 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

"If Silver futures were to get hit as hard in the weeks ahead, they’d find a bottom near $38. Hardly the end of the world.  Moreover, we suspect that, just like in 1987, it could produce the best buying opportunity we might see for years to come."

http://news.silverseek.com/RickAckerman/1303770061.php

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:48 | 1216580 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Another fun battle today.  Trading swings indicate their are some pretty hard heads on both sides (no surprise to anyone who follows postings here.)  Obviously, this is being played out on bigger stage.  Guess is that action is the "beach ball in the swimming pool" effect with silver stock prices, and not the turning point for a correction yet.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:00 | 1216914 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Dangertime capitulated!

Gentleman start your shorts.

Wimpy men like me only gear up 2 to 1

Buy zsl. You will either get a good ass fucking or
get to gloat for a while.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:56 | 1216621 CustomersMan
CustomersMan's picture

     The readers, question above on ETF's was interesting. I would say 98% of the people out there have no idea how the game gets played in the background, and I don't mean this to be insulting. But the fact is they are playing ignorance arbitrage. They know the public cannot fathom the complexity of their thieving, and they have been practicing for many generations. Its like the Armored Car heists, and the unique history of Charlestown MA, but many times more complex...

 

     I remember way back, early lessons, regarding convertible securities. A company I was following closely, was talked into issuing some convertible bonds which also had some warrants attached.

 

     The stock, had been strong, and the company growing rapidly, so they used this to raise cash.

 

      With all the permutations and contortions that the "firms" and their "traders" could pull, the stock was held dead in its tracks.

 

       I suspect that there are HUGE naked short positions, with all sorts on convoluted options and derivative positions, so that very few can see what their 'net "net position is, especially when tied into the ETF's.

 

       Add to this the fact that "Stock Certificates" are no longer issued and you have a recipe for massive manipulation, and theft on a scale that reaches new all time highs.

 

       If they are caught or lose Trillions, they will say they were protecting the dollar for everyone's benefit, if they get away with it, then its private enterprise, and risk taking, that made this country what it is today (pun intended).

 

       How else do you explain, mining companies, with the most profitable quarters back to back, with even better quarters and years to come,...ending up being such poor performers. If they had any idea how many shares of their companies stock and equivalents were floating out there, they would certainly shit their pants. They are being robbed mercilessly along with the public.

 

       And its the same "firms" that we see in the silver suppression and add in the other most ruthless FED supporting entities.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 18:15 | 1218169 honestann
honestann's picture

1 + 1 == 2

1:  You can create unlimited fiat out of thin air at zero cost.
+
1:  You are utterly non-transparent (and call this "independence").
=
2:  You can manipulate anything you want, as long as you want.

-----

Exception:  The total quantity of real, physical goods.  Therefore, you must find ways to slow or prevent people from demanding and receiving the real, physical goods that support the fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy paper asset scams you manipulate.

Which is why everyone with half a brain, and even the faintest hope for success and liberty must convert all their paper assets into real, physical gold and silver that you keep in your own possession.

If you let anyone hold your gold and silver (with the possible exception of the Sprott physical funds), they lease, short, rent or sell your physical assets (to hold down prices and therefore your gains) OR they run a classic ponzi scam wherein they only buy 1% as much metal as they've received money to buy from their clients (which also holds down prices and therefore your gains).

Get real.  Get physical gold and silver.

In gold we trust.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:18 | 1216716 6 String
6 String's picture

Yep, another backwardation article on Zh, and another Silver take down. The time to trade silver--not core position--is every time ZH starts posting on backwardation and how the price is going to soar. The fact is silver ALWAYS tanks after they post this information.

Otherwise, just hold core phyiscal and ingore all the silly syndicate Wall Street COMEX bullshit.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 17:00 | 1217813 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Love ZH but you give too much credit for silver market moving capacity.  Today was going to happen after yesterday, nothing anyone on here was going to do about it.  Big boys in charge on both sides no matter what is said here.

My 'day' call was wrong.  i thought we'd hold the early gains and went against my own gut (stated here) to sell the early rally.  Well there was a sell off, but there definitely was a floor put in midday (AGAIN!)

ZH is a forward looking mechanism.  The info in these posts from these guys is priceless and usually leads the market by a few trading sessions.  Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:19 | 1216726 z123
z123's picture

why it is tanking again ?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:30 | 1216757 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

LMAO.  Look at the silver troll bleeding out.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:26 | 1216775 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hi there, Mr. "1 week, 3 days".

Another new username joins the troll ranks.

Tyler, any possibility we could close new registration for a while?  I would like to see what effect it has on the sockpuppet trolls.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:03 | 1216934 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

T if I were you I would get nervous.
Dangertime capitulated.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:36 | 1217311 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Trolls aren't contrarian indicators.  They are noise, and provide no information one way or another.

And where did he capitulate?  Just above I saw that he still owns October puts.  Still chasing the dragon, so far as I can see.  I'm sure the result will be the same for him as it has been for every other dragon chaser.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:25 | 1217511 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

So he ends up looking like Iggy Pop? That would be justice indeud.

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