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Silver Backwardation Surges To Over $1.00

Tyler Durden's picture


The last time we presented the silver backwardation chart, it was "only" $0.50 or so between the front month and the long end. In the week since then the difference has jumped to what we believe is a new record of $1.50 or so. Now that the CBOE is issuing CEBOs and allowing plain Jane investors to bet on imminent corporate bankruptcies, would it be so kind to issue a contract or two on the COMEX... Pretty please?


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Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:02 | 994055 scythian empire
scythian empire's picture

continued backwardation bitches!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:22 | 994154 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

JPM is attacking now...this is getting good...lovin' it, go, Jamie...give us all a bargain!!!!!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:36 | 994221 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Holy Shit!! Blythe just pulled out the BIG GUNS! Almost in TIMED response to ZH release this article!! This will not end well for "Don't worry nobodies going to get screwed" Masters!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:27 | 994501 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Massive drop also timed well with Meth Man posts below. Odd & interesting.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:34 | 994543 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture



[gasp gasp]


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 18:32 | 994986 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

Wish I may
Wish I might
Have this I wish tonight
Are you satisfied?
Dig for gold
Dig for fame
You dig to make your name
Are you pacified?

All the wants you waste
All the things you've chased

Then it all crashes down
And you break your crown
And you point your finger
But there's no one around

Just want one thing
Just to play the king
But the castle's crumbling
And you're left with just name

Where's your crown, King Nothing?
Where's your crown?

Hot and cold
Bought and Sold
A heart as hard as gold
Yeah! Are you satisfied?

Wish I might
Wish I may
You wish your life away
Are you pacified?

All the wants you've waste
All the things you've chased

Then it all crashes down
And you break your crown
And you point your finger
But there's no one around

Just want one thing
Just to play the king
But the castle's crumbled
And you're left with just a thing

Where's your crown, King Nothing?
Oh, where's your crown?


I wish I may
I wish I might
Have this wish I wish tonight
I want that star
I want it now
I want it all and I don't care how

Careful what you wish
Careful what you say
Careful what you wish
You may regret it
Careful what you wish
You just might get it

Then it all crashes down
And you break your crown
And you point your finger
But there's no one around

Just want one thing
Just to play the king
But the castle's crumbled
And you're left with just a name

Where's your crown, King Nothing?

No you're just nothing
Where's your crown, King Nothing?
No you're just nothing
absolutely nothing

Off to never never land

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:23 | 994163 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

guess you're keeping yourself warm with all that green linen that Ben is printing up...

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:27 | 994188 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture


You're back!

And, of course, you are right. I'm gonna go out today and sell all my metal so I can pick up some cheap GM stock!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:31 | 994200 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

'laughing out loud. is nadler even still around?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:38 | 994227 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

I miss Harry Wanker. Now that that guy was insightfully wrong.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:09 | 994418 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

how did you know it was me? Am still around, yes and all this backwardation talk is nonsense, silver is in a bear market starting today at 1PM, it's heading back to 8.75 by June. Mark my words

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:14 | 994442 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ag to $0.875 by August.

Backwardation my back end!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:25 | 995125 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

thanks for the support DoChen.

Since Jamie saw your post saying that the real reason you stopped buying pm's was because of my terrifying posts, he treats me better; gave me the keys back to the Hamptoms house. What do you say all the ZH crew trash the place over the weekend

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:44 | 995366 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Great idea!  Call me at 1 800 4BLYTHE...

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:43 | 994578 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

Mark my words

I will! Just like my dog marks a tree!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 18:48 | 995028 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:32 | 994203 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I'll let you in on a little secret.  Hedgers are wrong more often than not.  Large speculators are right more often than not.  Hedgers give their money to the large specs.

Do you work for Blythe?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:41 | 994238 outamyeffinway
outamyeffinway's picture

Barrick anyone? Do the math on that one MathMan!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:11 | 994427 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

what math,....oh you were talking to my other screen name Mathman...sorry

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:33 | 994207 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Meth boy, go back to your x-box.

Gold and silver are taking a dive now that the looting of north african PMs has been priced in by JPM.  COMEX might just be able to deliver. They won't have time to remelt. So you'll end up with Libyan marked bars (they did have time to remelt Tunisian and Egyptian bars).

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:43 | 994582 Dred Scott
Dred Scott's picture

Damn! I never though of that. That would explain why these little kingdoms are going up in flames so suddenly? Arabs tend not to trust banks and loans the same way we do in the West. It is likely that all of them have gold and silver cashes. Let's watch for what is reported about their security.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:36 | 994225 Chasecran
Chasecran's picture

This market is going to be in whipsaw come Spring.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:42 | 994242 purplefrog
purplefrog's picture

You don't give up, do you Myth Man?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:43 | 994247 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:45 | 994263 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

If all those silver miners are selling huge amounts of silver for future delivery, why has future silver gone up from under $28 to over $32. Shouldn't selling future silver cause future silver to go down?

On the other hand, suppose someone had sold a naked future silver contract a while back and is now required to come up with some silver right now (or very soon)? Wouldn't that person have no choice but to pay a premium for immediate silver?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:26 | 994496 strannick
strannick's picture


You simply have to email or call your favorite miners to confirm that this is a last gasp COMEX hoax

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 18:18 | 994923 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Wendy the dragon is gonna die. Nigras to the comex pool. It has aids.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:44 | 994264 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Yeah yeah. Examples of these 'Ashanti' wannabe's please MethMint.


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:46 | 994276 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hey everyone, it's Math Man, the mental contortionist!

He's so flexible, he's kept his head up his ass the whole time he's been here!

If producers are hedging, lets see some proof.  There is none.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:52 | 994326 Math Man
Math Man's picture

The FT reported last week that in the last 2 months, at least 5 major silver miners have exectued hedges to protect against falling prices and that over 100mm ounces have been hedged, which is 5x the outstanding hedges in 2010, and 15% of annual production.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:02 | 994386 TaggartGalt
TaggartGalt's picture

Next time, provide a link to support your statements.  Here it is:,s01=1.htm...


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:11 | 994425 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Thanks.  As you can see, in the last 2 months since silver hit $30, the producers have started hedging again - and not suprisingly, that is when the backwardation began. 

Producer hedging is causing the backwardation  -- NOT SHORTAGES.  But most of the readers of ZH are too blinded by their conspiracy theories to realize it.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:12 | 994431 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

stop imitating me. You're not Jon Nadler OK?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:14 | 994436 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Uh, a measly 15% of world production is now hedged, versus ten years of production being held short now by banks.

But hey, I don't know why I care about your opinion.  Just another in a ten year long trail of troll corpses by the side of the road.

Edit: also funny that you think there are no shortages.  Try to find a COMEX deliverable bar ANYWHERE.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:22 | 994452 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Keep ingnoring the evidence and believing your conspiracy theories.  We will be back below $20 soon enough.

Maybe even in a few hours at the rate PMs are falling right now.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:32 | 994522 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Feel like a Friday.  Oh that's right, we're at levels last seen on Friday.

OMFG we're all gonna die!  The silver will evaporate out of our hands!

Edit: and what the fuck do you mean conspiracy theories?  Who do you think is taking on all these short contracts?  It's obviously not the producers, as they are only now hedging!

You don't even know the first thing about this market!  It's like trying to tell me there is no such thing as the Fed!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:33 | 994539 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Meth man is right with is Oddly perfectly timed posts about falling silver, time ti pile into Bennie Bucks!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:27 | 994648 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

C-U-Next-Tuesday MethMon

What the heck, willya look at that: AH and the Charts take off like a beach ball full of helium held forcibly under a tarsands tailings pond. Go figure.

Calling all CFTC, calling all SE... oh fuck, who am I kidding? Give 'em a shake and send 'em down to the pub, it's time for another round and BMasters is buyin'.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:33 | 994799 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

damn i hope you are right....i'd love to buy at a discount again

paper is still paper and pm's are still precious


i can picture it back in the mid twenties, no problem....i think 8.75 is a bit optimistic(from my buy and never sell perspective)

heres to hoping you are right(sips patron margarita)

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:50 | 994857 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

And we all know how well the hedges went for them the last time they were warned to get out of their hedges and they didn't. (Barrik etc).

Can't remember how many billions it cost share holders to cover them but it wasn't the equivalent of a few silver eagles.

Other than a slight price rise, what else has changed in the world. Ah yes, sorry, dropped my rose colored glasses. 

Now lookee here. $32 down from 34. Those hedgers sure do have an effect on the price now, don't they.

Oh, I forgot. There are no forces in the world that affect the price. Prices just change in a vacuum, because that's the way it works.

MM, your mom's coming down the stairs. Better hide this screen. She warned you about fantasies.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 18:47 | 995023 acrabbe
acrabbe's picture

Math man, seriously, let me help you out in regrds to your understanding of backwardation in the PM market. Google "Antal Fekete" and "backwardation". Since you claim to be numerically literate, you should understand the lesson...

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 18:52 | 995040 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

We can only hope.  STOP giving us a FALSE sense of possibilities here. 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:44 | 994592 stopthenewworldorder
stopthenewworldorder's picture

Blah Blah Blah - so, the Morgue managed to convince a few of its clients to sell some silver forwards - just shows how panicked they are, scrambling around inside an empty keg to cover their asses

Sat, 04/02/2011 - 10:08 | 1127732 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

JP Morgan..

which one?????

which JP Morgan?

**** "JP Morgan has so Many Names to Lobby with JP Morgan 1 thru ?? Can Lobby The MAX, PER!" ****

If instead of lobbying.. they are buying... shorting / going long oppositte the market makers clients.. where they control the Lag of the Trade, so to speak.

as well affecting people who own PM's... but how many ways can JP apply preasure to the markets? I am sayin at least as many ways as JP can Lobby the Max to any Congressman / Senator / Presidential Canidate.. The multi headed hydra is not as simple as most would like to believe.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 18:03 | 994890 Edmund Dantes
Edmund Dantes's picture

Go view Eric Sprott's video from yesterday and then come back and tell us that there are no silver shortages

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:17 | 994456 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

The mining companies bean counters may indeed be hedging as you say, but a good hedge needs the potential upside on the opposite outcome to be substatial enough to cover the cost of the hedge. So they think there will be a large change in price, but I fail to connect why that change should be down. Please clearify




Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:10 | 995610 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Having had the displeasure of owning ABX a few years ago when they were hedging I do not like the mining companies to do so...but here is their reason: they are publicly traded and must report quarter to quarter, etc. The market (analysts) do not like surprises, so the miners can sell forward and produce 'predictable' earnings....boring but predictable, provided a mine doesn't flood or a Chavez appropriates their property....


Also, the backwardation could be due to miners' selling forward or it could be due to physical shortages or a bit of each. In the long run it will not matter as Benny will overwhelm any of these trivial things....he is the one driving the silver bullet.



Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:50 | 994296 ChanceIs
ChanceIs's picture

Mr. Meth Man,

Your argumant would hold water if the futures contracts to which you refer were in fact dropping.  I haven't done the numbers, but it seems to me that the backwardation is coming simply from the fact that the spot/short is rising much faster than the out months.

Lot's of ways to conjure backwardation.

Now if you were to tell me that all of the slver mines had been morphed into Ben, Tim, and Blythe's bitches and they were selling forward silver they had no hope of ever being able to produce, then I would be scared.  I give those hacks some credit for contriving intellectually clever but morally disgusting manipulation schemes.  If they could pull that off, then I should be bearish.



Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:55 | 994342 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:06 | 994401 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

And I'll call complete bullshit on your theory. 

Backwardation in Gold 2008 : what happened again?

Backwardation in Gold 2009 : what happened again?



Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:29 | 994515 strannick
strannick's picture


If I had a silver eagle for every rationalization I heard during silver's inexorible decade long rise....

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:34 | 994536 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I do.  Feels good man.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:35 | 994545 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

And this 10-year bull run in gold and silver was all just a big trick to screw us over now.

And inflation never caused the "price" of PMs to rise.


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:27 | 994183 Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

Who cares?!  The DJIA is melting up and is probably going to finish in the green today.....

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:19 | 994462 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

$31.70, nice, makes sence.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:12 | 994704 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Thanks for putting silver on sale today Blythe, you fucking bitch.


Off to the coinstore.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:02 | 994056 Feyd Rautha
Feyd Rautha's picture

Love my CME put!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:01 | 994057 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Silver Bitchez!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:02 | 994059 Gaston
Gaston's picture

I own the stuff and am really hoping for a pullback on silver to atleast 32.00 So I can buy more.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:04 | 994072 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture


i feel the same way.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:15 | 994124 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Yup! Same here, but it looks as if time is running short. Things move quick lately, wow! It's a wild ride!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:22 | 994150 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I am eyeing 150 ounces of silver (rounds, liberties, and maples) of my local coin shop's last silver.  $5,100 is what he would take to part with it.  Not bad really, very little premium.  He who hesitates, masturbates.  I guess I should just pull the trigger.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:32 | 994201 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

Are you insane?

34.00/ounce and you are not sure?

I would run out the door for that deal!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:36 | 994226 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I am insane indeed.  Actually, waiting for my funds to clear on Friday to execute.  Part of the concern was talk of margin debt surges and the possible upcoming liquidation.  I would kick myself to miss out on a nice Fucking Dip to Buy.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:36 | 994223 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Just shoot that bitch.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:40 | 994235 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Whats the name and number of the coin shop? Maybe I can talk him down a little more for you?



Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:53 | 994329 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

HAhaha.  The last time I went in there, about three weeks ago, he was clean out of silver. Apparently some guy drove from three hours away to clean him out.  This guy is by far the cheapest coin shop near me, one over spot for rounds, three over spot for liberties, maples, and pandas.  Everywhere else premiums are nealry double and not much inventoy to speak of.

I guess the pawn shops spoiled me by letting me have their silver at melt.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:41 | 994820 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

craigslist people,craigslist

i've been paying 20x face for franklin and walking lib halves

just put a want add up or wait for a sell add in the collectibles section

see philly craigs

one guys got about 50 ounces at best offer right now...if you are in the area, make an offer

these folks are looking at pawning otherwise, and pawn shops are paying 15x face

everyone wins when they need the money for heat


people are liquidating for heating oil, thats what most of them tell me

even got some liberty dollars from one guy for 17.50 each(only 11 but i'll take them)

the worst i've done is 22x face for au-50 morgans

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:46 | 994841 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Thanks.  I completely neglected that source.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:14 | 994125 centerline
centerline's picture

(fingers crossed)

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:21 | 994152 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I was going to go out at lunch earlier today and get some more Eagles, but I looked at a daily chart, and thought perhaps a dip might be in order.

Now after seeing this level of backwardation, short of a repeat of 2008, I can't imagine a dip being longer than a few hours. So, it looks like I'll be taking off from work early to pick them up today anyway.

It's going to feel strange handing over $700+ FRNs for a tube of Eagles. Then again, it felt that way when I bought my last tube at $460.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:44 | 994260 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

<sarcasm activated>

What?! Didn't you see meth man's post above??

He told us:

That's not at all what happened in 2008, because backwardation means we are at the top!!  Just wait fer yer "Bama Check, coming soon!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:59 | 994371 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

My 600.00 dollar check from Bush a couple of years went right to APMEX.

If Barrie Oh sends me one, guess where it goes.

Not GM stock!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:24 | 994165 dumpster
dumpster's picture

buy more now .. you want to wait tilln 32 ,, then run to coin shop.. or flash of a payment to a tulving ,, or are you talking paper,,

you either want to get silver or dance to the music of 1000 wanting for ten seats..

what the hell is a buck or two in the big scope or things ,, when silver explodes above 40 then 50

so you want to buy twenty coins and save 5 bucks ,,


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:46 | 994595 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Seriously or you can buy on ebay around $36/toz.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:03 | 994063 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Gensler smiles....

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:30 | 994196 bankrupt JPM bu...
Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:02 | 994064 PSEUDOLOGOI

Silver bitchez!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:04 | 994066 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

interestingly, with the minor drop in spot silver since monday's high, coin prices are up given the premium(s), which the silver sages would happen this time too as in late 70's / early 80's.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:04 | 994067 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

ya hoo

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:20 | 994145 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

retesting BO support 32 - 31.27ish

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:25 | 994172 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Turd calling for support at $32.50 right now.  That Turd has been pretty dead on as far as I have followed him. 

My wife hates the fact that I read my Turd and ZH on the phone at night instead of cozying up to some sit com horse shit.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:46 | 994275 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

But at LEAST you watched American Idol last night?!?! Who care's about your financial future, or that of the country for that matter, when you can text in votes! <Note: Sarcasm still activated>

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:55 | 994343 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

She and I get into quite the fights about me bashing people that enjoy the circuses. Says I am cocky and all, hence the name Dick head.  Amazing since she has been buying silver too since 2008.  Damn PMS during PMs season.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:09 | 994690 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Women tend to dismiss you as a nut when you rail on about the banksters and the evils of the world... but don't you dare question Oprah and the existence of angels, unicorns and fucking rainbows!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:34 | 994808 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

In my world every one is a pony and they all eat rainbows and poop butterflies!!!! -

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:04 | 994068 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What's up with NEM?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:10 | 994105 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

digging a mine is very expensive because of the high energy requirement to get the mineral out of the ground. so when oil spikes the price of miners can drop rather significantly. can be frustrating if you own mining shares to say the least.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:55 | 994121 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture


Why is Now the Best Time to Invest In Precious Metals?:

Any chance NEM caused spot to go down?  Bernanke/Geithner's PPT selling into weakness?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:55 | 994339 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Lt., that and nationalization is precisely why I don't own miners, myself.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:57 | 994354 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture


Owning miners is like playing chicken.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:06 | 994402 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

same here. physical only. makes for sound sleeping at night. learned lesson the hard way, over and over again.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:18 | 994468 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Same here.  Physical only.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:15 | 994596 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

'Miners' no, but ETF's are the best, eh?

Still white-knuckling that long ZSL position from around $10.86/unit (pre 4X inverse split) Saxxon?

As a rule I don't think inverse splits are a good sign.... always look like they are making room for another solid leg down. JMHO

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:03 | 994069 OnTheWaterfront
OnTheWaterfront's picture

Dow 11997, Woo-Hoo do we get to pass out those stupid 12,000 hats again?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:11 | 994106 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Not until the 36k hats come off.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:45 | 994262 billhilly
billhilly's picture

DAMMIT.  Stop doing this.  Everytime someone screams about a new beautiful low it takes off skyward again...remember TD (mid Aug.2010) "dow 9000 hats" and then BAM, off it flew to 12000.  No fate tempting allowed please.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:52 | 994619 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The EE is doing a nice stick save of equities here near the end of trading.

Damn!  Hate to meet YOU in a dark alley!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:04 | 994070 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Totally normal, nothing to see here.  Silver will crash to $22 tomorrow.  You are all teh stupids, etc, etc.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:05 | 994078 Gaston
Gaston's picture

I'm Hoping 32$....

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:16 | 994135 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Gimmie $5 and it's swiming time! Scrooge McDuck Style!! Gotta love the genius of Scrooge McDuck: heavily into hard assests.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:23 | 994162 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Bingo.  Would much rather grab 5,000 ounces over the 150 I can buy right now with me dry powder.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:23 | 994166 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Whoever junked you just failed the sarcasm captcha.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:02 | 994380 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Naw just a newb who doesn't know the rules and hasn't been around to get to know tmosely.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:38 | 994231 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Did MathMan or some other troll hack your account?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:50 | 994305 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Meth Man knows all! The shadow monsters tell him things...

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:06 | 994074 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Crude smashed!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:06 | 994081 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Everything is fine.. Everything is going according to plan... no worries... just ignore this stuff, it will be easier on you in the end when you are suprised like on Christmas Day!!!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:34 | 994210 ft65
ft65's picture

Testing testing... "JW n FL" - Ja$on LucaS is that you? Does this persona have any connection with HB Gary and MacDill Air Force?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:06 | 994082 Scottj88
Scottj88's picture

Invest in silver miners... learn about why mining equities will be the best investment in the future..


50$ silver here we come...

Watch out for the comex, it has 130million oz of silver in longs (~26k contracts) while it only has 40 million in registered warehouses...



Beware of the coming days...

buy physical silver

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:07 | 994088 pointer
pointer's picture

Can someone explain this to me? Does this mean if spot is $33 you can buy silver at a future date for say, $31.50? Hence, a $1.50 backwardation? For some reason I don't think that's right.

I'm not a trader because I don't get involved in shit I don't understand...yet.

From Wikipedia:
Backwardation is the name for the condition that the market quotes a lower price for a more distant delivery date, and a higher price for a nearby delivery date. The opposite condition, contango, exists when the market quotes a higher price for a more distant delivery date, and a lower price for a nearby delivery date.

In financial terminology, backwardation means a downward sloping forward curve (as in an inverted yield curve). A backwardation starts when the difference between the forward price and the spot price is less than the cost of carry, or when there can be no delivery arbitrage because the asset is not currently available for purchase.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:10 | 994101 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

It means people are willing to pay more today to take delivery, because they are not sure any will be available tomorrow.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:45 | 994169 Math Man
Math Man's picture

It actually means the miners are scrambling to sell as much silver forward as possible while the price is up here.  They're locking in their profits before the spot collapses.


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:51 | 994317 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Perhaps you are right, Meth Man. The glass pipe has made you wise!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:55 | 994338 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Lots of gum flapping, but no proof.  Lets see the proof, or lets see you blow it out of your ass.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:30 | 994518 Math Man
Math Man's picture

The FT reported last week that in the last 2 months, at least 5 major silver miners have exectued hedges to protect against falling prices and that over 100mm ounces have been hedged, which is 5x the outstanding hedges in 2010, and 15% of annual production.,s01=1.htm...


It's good thing I bought puts instead of placing 95% of my net worth in Silver like tmosely.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:28 | 994769 destraht
destraht's picture

I don't see what the big deal would be. Gold and Silver producers got screwed for a few decades and now they they want the steady money (, I mean paper).

[edit] Ooops I meant to reply to Math Mans comment below.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:30 | 994519 Math Man
Math Man's picture

The FT reported last week that in the last 2 months, at least 5 major silver miners have exectued hedges to protect against falling prices and that over 100mm ounces have been hedged, which is 5x the outstanding hedges in 2010, and 15% of annual production.,s01=1.htm...


It's good thing I bought puts instead of placing 95% of my net worth in Silver like tmosely.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:43 | 994576 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Sorry, loser, I'm still up more than 100% off of my cost average, and am around 350% above my initial investment.

Good hustle though.  

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:50 | 994610 Math Man
Math Man's picture

And what do you returns look like at $18 silver?

You should really consider taking some profits.  This is going to end very badly for you.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:54 | 994625 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

No it isn't.  It is going to end very well for all of us who have bought steadily for years and years.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:02 | 994656 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Oh did the Fed stop printing money?

Oh that's right, you don't believe in conspiracy theories like the Fed.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:30 | 994792 destraht
destraht's picture

If the Fed stopped printing money I would wait just a few days for gold and silver to crash in price. Then I would go buy a shit ton of it with deflated dollars that would soon be worth very little when the US failed its creditors. The US has this big toy called the largest military on the planet: do you think that they will voluntarily give this up? They will print money until they are hung.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:22 | 995109 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Indeud. That woud cue 'Q-QE' (say that five times fast): Quiet Quantitative Easing. And Beney would ponder the age old question,

"If I fell a quadrillion trees to print FRN's, and I don't tell anyone, do they make a sound?"

Very similar policy to "Don't ask, don't tell."

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 23:58 | 995868 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Also, Has the US Govt(s) seriously cut any spending?

Are Housing prices rising at all?

Do any of these jokers see reality at all?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:06 | 994662 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

At $18 silver my returns look like 200%.


I'm staring at 3 X 100 oz bars that I bought under $700 each averaged.

You got any of those, shit-for-brains?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:14 | 994711 Math Man
Math Man's picture

No, but I have a beach house and a ferrari.

When silver breaks below 20, I'm going to buy a ski house.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:38 | 994812 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

We'll know how things shake out next Tuesday. It will be interesting one way or the other. I'm having this protracted conversation with a colleague, and these are the two possibilities.

1. The anticipation of a short squeeze.

2. Hedging future prices falling.

Now in the absence of other data, these might be a 50/50 proposition. But when you look at the size of the longs and at the COMEX deliverable, figure it out... 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:42 | 994829 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No, what you have are artifacts of conspicuous consumption.  I notice you didn't say anything about savings.  Apparently, you spend all you make on worthless toys.  You own nothing productive.  As such, all that you own will turn to ash sooner or later and you will be left with nothing.

Sorry you are such a loser, loser.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:57 | 994877 saulysw
saulysw's picture

No, but I have a beach house and a ferrari.

Notice the "have" and not "own". I suspect a lot of credit is involved here.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 18:38 | 995004 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

'lease rates' sure can be a bitch! Hehe.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 18:18 | 994944 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

No, but I have a beach house and a ferrari.

Both depreciating assets.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:08 | 995085 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

All was made clear with those few words from the troll.  Now we know who we are dealing with and his level of credibility.   It's always an advantage to know who you are dealing with.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:26 | 995126 Math Man
Math Man's picture

I consider them a testament to my trading acumen.

And I OWN them.  No debt.

Have fun being long.  The party is over.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:01 | 995220 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

"Math Man
on Wed, 02/02/2011 - 02:18

One side of trade will never tell you the direction of the bet.

A purchase of calls it not always bullish... "

No, it's not, I agree: as you are always bearish on the PM's , which is only one side of a trade, and the same rules apply... you figure it out.

Gosh, that is amazing 'acumen' MissMan- amazingly bad; missed a 70 fiatsco run on Au. ... don't tell me you want me to keep going, 'cuz you gonna get burned even worse.

Keep those kinda calls up and Daddy's going to cut your allowance.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:04 | 995248 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Allow me to roll my eyes.

You have been badmouthing silver and gold since you started here.  If you had any conviction, you have lost everything following those trades.

On the internet, even a pauper can claim to be a billionaire.  Bragging about your houses and cars makes people tend to beleive that you are either a liar, or a little punk living off of daddy's money.  Self made people tend to not brag about such things.

I felt I had a right, as I have been talking about the physical silver trade for years, and you can go back and see my comments showing where I got in.  From that, it is clear that I have made a lot of money.  You blow in here like a storm in a teapot and tell everyone how stupid they are, where you have exactly ZERO record here.

So fuck off.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:07 | 995435 Math Man
Math Man's picture


It's funny how angry you get when you can't refute my arguments. 

Silver has run 70% in six months.

Silver is in now in Backwardation because of producer hedging that started two months ago when silver prices surged.

JP Morgan is not naked short.

SLV has over 10,000 tons of silver.  It is not paper.

Keep believing all of your conspiracy theories and putting 95% of your assets in to silver.

It is going to be below 20 by the summer.

That is not going to be good for you.

Maybe you'll take my advice and diversify a little so you don't get completly wiped out.

Or shit, you could sell 5% of your silver, buy July puts, and have 10 or 20x your 5% investment in a few months.  Then you could take your profits and buy silver with it at the new lower price.

You'd have twice as much silver as you currently hold.

But I can't expect you to do anything as remotely intelligent as that.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:52 | 995704 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Then again MaffMoon you can't refute that your self-purported 'intelligence' missed a 70 fiastsco run on Au, and at least a similar percentage gain on silver, despite all your bluster about your 'skillz' and 'stuff '.

If you were leveraged short on those runs I can see why you pant so heavily at 20 US bitz of paper silver; you need it just to break even!

Question: If there is all the silver in the world out there, how come lease rates are soaring?

Bonne Chance.


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 23:13 | 995759 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Silver has had similar runs in the past and hasn't crashed.

But hey, you're a callow little shit with no conviction.  Either commit to your theories, or shut up about them.

Face it, loser.  You've been wrong ever since you got here, and if you played the market according to your bluster, you'd be BANKRUPT.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:05 | 995597 acrabbe
acrabbe's picture

MAth man, your name is a misnomer as you obviously are misinterpreting the mathematics behind this silver backwardation. it's all about basis. google "antal fekete" and "backwardation" together to get a thorough explanation. that should bring you up to speed. I am being genuine here. You, on the other hand, sound like a disingenuous troll. Shame if you're serious?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:03 | 995880 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I've made 12% on my "investments" in Silver/Gold in less than a year -- how's all those stock trades goin' for everyone again?


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:33 | 994532 SCW
SCW's picture

If the miner (minors) had scrambled to sell ten years worth of silver forward, would the market start to lose faith in their ability to actually produce the metals on time that were promised?


I agree with you that miners 'could' sell ahead and take advantage of pricing, but it's also pretty clear that's not what's happening here.  Everything on paper that can be sold has been, now buyers want to sit at the desk and hear the coins clink together. 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:39 | 994814 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Remember how many African countries the rest of the world bankrupted in the 1970s by convincing them to sell forwards. Seems like they would have learned...

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:29 | 994193 Misstrial
Misstrial's picture



Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:12 | 994116 Nepenthe
Nepenthe's picture

or when there can be no delivery arbitrage because the asset is not currently available for purchase.


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:16 | 994133 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture


 Simply put:

Backwardation - physical silver in extreme short supply.

Contango - everythings hunky dorey!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:24 | 994167 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture


Not so simply, the paper is even in short supply, which means the physical is in an even smaller supply.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:54 | 994330 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Yeah Well, Meth Man says otherwise, and he's been up for 5 days watching CNBC.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:10 | 995091 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

He's been taking a trip out to the beach house in his Ferrari.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:08 | 994096 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

with the criminals controlling the game cant they just pull some magic bullcrapa outta der hat?

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