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Silver: Hangin' On by a Sliver
As participants of all stripes across the global financial
marketplace continue to chatter on incessantly about the topic of
“runaway inflationary pressures” and the, allegedly imminent, “collapse
of the US Dollar,” we at Fibozachi turn our attention toward the
upcoming FED meeting and its FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market
Committee) announcement, due for public release Wednesday afternoon at
2:15 pm. We, bond markets and the $DXY (US Dollar Index) each seem to
be anticipating many far-reaching implications from Uncle Ben and Co.
about the winding down of QE (Quantitative Easing), essentially the
open spigot force providing full fire hose-like liquidity the world
over.
Over the course of the next two weeks, we at Fibozachi
will present a series of analyses that detail both the technical and
fundamental landscapes of gold, silver, copper, oil, the CRB (Commodity
Index), the US Dollar, the EURO and the remaining major currencies of
the G8 (the “Group of Eight”) in relation to one another. After
examining Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) yesterday, and to presage the bulk of
our upcoming series, today we present an initial look into the
technical composition of silver.
The chart highlighted above measures the percent change of gold and
silver, via their respective continuous futures contracts, @GC and @SI,
since the closing low for the @GC, which occurred on 11/13/08 at
$714.80; it also measures the two independently since their most recent
upper extremes of 10.14.09. While silver futures had outperformed gold
futures by a factor of two into silver’s most recent peak and gold’s
most recent high on October 14th, since then, gold has been flat
(spiking this morning as we write) while silver has shed 7.3%. This
very slight non-confirmation is yet another in a long line of
non-confirmations and negative divergences between not only gold and
silver alone but also the very argument of inflation versus deflation
itself. Over the course of the next two weeks, we at Fibozachi will
speak at much greater length about various technical profiles as we
release upcoming installments of this comprehensive series of analyses
in the explicit hope of spurring a distinctly technically oriented
discussion about the nature of today’s virtually all-encompassing
deflationary pressures. Until then, let us simply examine the initial
chart profile of silver and see what we can find.
Silver’s Three Degrees of Bearish Rising Wedge Patterns
Three consecutive weekly failures to close above a point of horizontal
resistance at 17.86 preceded last week’s intense sell-off in silver.
Should silver have any chance of developing a bullish chart profile
that would suggest a future handle above 20, its first hurdle surrounds
a lateral band of resistance that spans 17.86 – 18.17.
Having registered a swing-high print of $18.17 on October 14th before
turning sharply lower in the interim, silver has recently found support
at a rising trendline that connects the lows of 7/17/09 and 8/21/09.
However, when examining the weekly and chart profiles of silver, we at Fibozachi
clearly see that a series of bearish rising wedge patterns has
developed into a very unappealing cumulative technical profile for
longs.
When examining the three bearish rising wedges that we have highlighted
below, please note how each bearish rising wedge pattern lays within
yet a larger bearish rising wedge pattern; this fractal behavior within
price action across various short and intermediate degrees of scale
only serves to underscore the validity of the pattern itself at its
largest degree. Yet, before we examine those charts, let us first
define exactly what a bearish rising wedge pattern both constitutes in
terms of structure and denotes in terms of price action.
Quoting directly from pages 162 – 165 of Edwards & Magee’s, 9th Edition of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends,
which is often referred to as “the bible of technical analysis,”
without any alteration to either prose or italicization, we learn that:
“The Wedge is a chart formation in which the price fluctuations are
confined within converging straight (or practically straight) lines,
but differing from a Triangle in that both boundary lines either slope
up or slope down. In a Symmetrical Triangle, the Top border slants
down, while the Bottom border slants up. In Right Angle Triangles, one
boundary slopes either up or down, but the other is horizontal. In a
Rising Wedge, both boundary lines slant up from left to right, but
since the two lines converge, the lower must, of course, project at a
steeper angle than the upper. In a Falling Wedge, the opposite is true.
…. In a Rising Wedge … there is no evident barrier of supply to be
vaulted, but rather, a gradual petering out of investment interest.
Prices advance, but each new up wave is feebler than the last.
Finally, demand fails entirely and the trend reverses. Thus, a Rising
Wedge typifies a situation which is growing progressively weaker in the
technical sense … The difference between a Rising Wedge and what might
be called a normal Uptrend Channel … is that the Wedge sets a sort of
limit on the advance. Its converging boundary lines focus on a point
near where the advance will halt and reaction set in … Prices almost
always fluctuate within the Wedge’s confines for at least two thirds of
the distance from the base (beginning of convergence) to the apex; in
many cases, they rise clear to the apex, and in some, they actually go
a short distance beyond, pushing on out at the Top in a last-gasp rally
before collapsing. Once prices break out of the Wedge downside, they
usually waste little time before declining in earnest. The ensuing
drop ordinarily retraces all of the ground gained within the Wedge
itself, and sometimes more. Trading volume in a Wedge tends to follow
the regular Triangle Pattern, diminishing gradually as prices move up
toward the apex of the Wedge.”
Enough with the introduction already, let us start analyzing each
fractal rising bearish wedge pattern, from smallest to largest.
Short-term Bearish Rising Wedge
The short-term bearish rising wedge pattern will most likely terminate
at either one of two upcoming points in the very near future:
1) when the two trendlines drawn below intersect in 12 weeks at the
level of 19.55 - 19.60, which would fall just shy of the 7/18/08 high
at 19.76 that previously marked an upper price extreme for silver and
directly preceded a sharp plunge in excess of 50% within just over 3
months;
2) at approximately 75-80% of the depth of the wedge pattern itself,
as measured from its base to its apex, which is a frequent termination
point for many patterns of various shape, size and variety.
Intermediate-term Bearish Rising Wedge
Akin to the short-term bearish rising wedge diagnosed above, the
intermediate-term bearish rising wedge pattern will most likely
terminate at either one of two upcoming points in the very near future:
1) when the two trendlines drawn below intersect in 17 weeks at the
level of 21.40, just shy of silver’s 2008 upper price extreme at 21.77;
2) at approximately 75-80% of the depth of the wedge pattern itself,
as measured from its base to its apex, which is a frequent termination
point for many patterns of various shape, size and variety.
Long-Term Bearish Rising Wedge
Akin to the two previous bearish rising wedge patterns diagnosed above,
this longer-term instance will most likely terminate at either one of
two upcoming points in the very near future:
1) when the two trendlines drawn below intersect in approximately 34
weeks at an open range interface that not only surrounds the 20.50 -
20.60 area but also remains just shy of the 2008 upper price extreme at
21.77;
2) at approximately 75-80% of the depth of the wedge pattern itself,
as measured from its base to its apex, which is a frequent termination
point for many patterns of various shape, size and variety.
Now that we have initially examined the profile of these bearish
rising wedge patterns, allow us to once again quote directly from pages
168 - 169 of Edwards & Magee’s, 9th Edition of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends,
which is often referred to as “the bible of technical analysis,”
without any alteration to either prose, italicization or the title
below:
“Rising Wedges Common in Bear Market Rallies
As a final note, we might add that the Rising Wedge is a quite
characteristic pattern for Bear Market Rallies. It is so typical, in
fact, that frequent appearance of Wedges at a time when, after an
extensive decline, there is some question as to whether a new Bull
Trend is in the making may be taken as evidence that the Primary Trend
is still down. When a Major Bear Swing ends in a Head-and-Shoulders
Bottom, the last Rising Wedge will often appear as prices rally from
the left shoulder to the neckline, and just before they break down to
the head (final low). A Rising Wedge on an arithmetically scaled
weekly chart is almost invariably a Bear Market phenomenon, expressing,
as it does, the diminishing vigor which is the normal property of any
reaction against a prevailing Primary Trend.”
And lastly, to conclude our look into silver’s bearish rising wedge patterns, allow us to quote from pages 328 - 330 of Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist’s, Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, who themselves cite from Bulkowski’s, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns:
“…. Almost all declining wedges (92%) break out upward, and almost all
rising wedges (82%) break out to the downside (Bulkowski, 2000).
Wedges are one of a few patterns that can be consolidation patterns
against the prevailing trend, consolidation patterns within the trend,
or topping patterns, especially when accompanying a climax. They occur
more often during consolidations but are more dramatic after a climax.
Let us look at rising wedges first. Rising wedges occur either
during a long downward price trend or after an upward climax. The ones
that occur during a downtrend appear as very weak rallies against the
trend. As mentioned previously, they invariably break again to the
downside and continue the downtrend. Declining wedges are almost the
same pattern and occur under similar circumstances, only in the
opposite direction ….
At a climax peak, when the test is a rising wedge pattern, the odds
are extremely high that the breakout will be downward. Because the
emotion and commitment have been exhausted at the climax peak and are
unable to return during the test, the downward break in the wedge
pattern is the sign of a longer-term downward reversal. Thus, the
wedge is a reversal pattern, even though it may not occur at the actual
climax peak high.
Other rising wedges can occur as a consolidation during a sustained
downward trend and occasionally will end at the top of weakening upward
trend. The latter we will see as a “fifth wave diagonal” in the
discussion of Elliott waves … Fibonacci, and Gann.
Because trend lines often converge in the same direction when a
wedge is not present, Bulkowski requires that at least five reversal
points be touched to qualify the pattern as a wedge. This means three
points on one trend line and at least two on the other … Another
characteristic of wedges, in both the consolidation and reversal
varieties, is declining volume during the formation of the wedge.
Declining volume occurs in three-quarters of the formations, and when
it does, the post-performance improves over those wedges with
increasing volume. Breakout volume seems to be irrelevant to
post-performance. Pullbacks and throwbacks have about 50/50 odds of
occurring.
…. It is extremely important to wait for the actual breakout from a
wedge. Even in the instances where the breakout is opposite from the
expected direction, the failure rate is only 2%. Thus, it pays to wait
for the actual breakout, even though anticipating the breakout is
tempting. Not waiting for the breakout increases the failure rate from
6% to 24% in rising wedges, and from 2% to 10% in declining wedges.
Previously we mentioned that pullbacks and throwbacks occur roughly
50% of the time after a breakout. The low failure rate, however,
suggests that unlike other patterns where the post-performance often
suffers in situations with a high percentage of pullback or throwback,
wedges can be acted upon at the retracement as well as the actual
breakout.”
Finally, when we summarize but a tiny fraction of Bulkowski’s sensational research, which is cited once again on page 338 of Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist’s, Technical Analysis,
we learn that the bearish rising wedge pattern: fails only 6% of the
time to reach a 10% gain after breakout; reaches its price target 63%
of the time; exhibits a throwback 53% of the time; and that the most
favorable volume pattern during its formation is declining volume. For
the record, the seminal tomes of both Edwards & Magee and Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist,
have been deemed so instructive for technicians of all experience
levels in further developing a strong foundation across comprehensive
technical analysis, that the Market Technicians Association has made them each required readings within their Chartered Market Technician program, the “gold standard in technical analysis.”
Volume Spikes on Sell-Offs:
Aside from the recurring appearance of bearish rising wedge patterns
across multiple fractal interval periods of time, there are several
clues into the intermediate direction of price action that may be
gleaned by examining the structure of weekly volume within the @SI, the
continuous contract for silver futures. While volume has steadily
risen of late into what tends to be its annual peak during October and
November, note how @SI recently plotted a fresh 2009 high in weekly
volume just after eclipsing a 100% gain from 11/13/08, which was the
daily closing low of 714.80 for the @GC, the continuous contract for
gold futures. Moreover, note how peaks in volume throughout 2009 have
each occurred on sell-offs just after swing highs.
Were silver truly at the beginning of a new bull leg higher and not
merely at the end of a sharply corrective upward retracement, last
week’s highly distributive period of volume, the single greatest since
the week of 8/15/08, should simply not have occurred. Rather, were
silver destined for a handle above 20 in the near future then it should
be entering a period of sideways consolidation that plots progressively
lower volume before bull flagging its way higher. When combined
alongside a multiple confluence of bearish rising wedge patterns across
various interval periods of time, the @SI essentially gave up the ghost
by registering such a large amount of impulsively distributive volume
last week, effectively tipping its hand as to the intermediate
direction of its price action.
Furthermore, akin to 8/15/08, when silver was in the latter stages of
tracing out an initial series of 1’s and 2’s to the downside before
crashing well into the Fall, it appears right now to be at a very
similar juncture. After the distinct possibility of a corrective
upward bounce over the next few days exhausts itself, silver may very
well find itself at the precipice of a similarly long voyage back to
new lows under $8. Effectively, such unabashedly relentless price
action would more than wash out the vast majority of weak hands and
speculative holders as the Godzilla-sized specter of deflation that is
Primary wave 3 (circle) takes its firm grip back upon the global
financial markets throughout the course of the next year and a half.
The bottom line for the literal legions of stalwart bulls is that after
registering a very high volume week of distribution, they would need to
see:
1) an amount of volume to the upside that is either equivalent to
that of last week or greater than its rolling 13-day average, along
with;
2) a close above 18.17 before getting excited about the possibility of a 20 handle in the intermediate future.
Should the $DXY (US Dollar Index) have already registered a
significant multi-year Primary wave 2 (circle) bottom at its recent low
of $74.94 (we at Fibozachi firmly believe that it has), then
silver ought be standing on the edge of a veritable price cliff, simply
steadying itself before leaping lower. With an unusual twist in an
inter-market relationship, which would be almost entirely symptomatic
of pure deflationary pressures - which are still almost universally
echoed as “inflation-coming-soon” on a daily basis by the mainstream
media as well as “Main Streets” across the globe - should both the US
Dollar and gold each vault higher over the next few days, then it would
only serve to underscore the many marked non-confirmations and negative
divergences across the landscapes of not only silver and gold but
rather the entirety of the CRB (Commodity Index) itself.
Any break in gold (@GC) above its recent upper price extreme of
1068.80, set on October 23rd, would strongly suggest yet another
attempt at touching the upper line of a long-term price channel that
will continue to surround the round number of $1100 over the course of
the next two weeks. Yet, a new nominal high in gold that is
denominated in $USD and $USD alone would only serve to strengthen the
glaring multiple non-confirmations between gold and its higher beta
brethren of silver.
We at Fibozachi would like to thank you for taking the
time to examine this initial technical profile of silver with us
today. The next upcoming installment within this series of analyses
(that strive to comprehensively detail both the technical and
fundamental landscapes of gold, precious metals, oil, the CRB
(Commodity Index), the US Dollar, the EURO and the remaining currencies
of the G8 (the “Group of Eight”) in relation to one another) will be published here on Zero Hedge Thursday morning. We hope that you have
enjoyed our work and look forward to spurring further insight about the
comprehensive technical profiles behind the debate that continues to
rage on about “inflation versus deflation” over the days and weeks
ahead.
Disclosure: no current position
For similar technical takes, market calls and insights, please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com.
There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as
detailed explanations of the unique design development of and technical
methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that
we use each and every day to perform a comprehensive technical analysis
of stocks, options, ETFs, futures and FOREX across interval periods of
time, tick and volume.
»
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What a great article. For those that are not technically oriented there is no reason to bash technical analysis in a technically oriented article. I haven't seen technical analysts on Zerohedge bash fundamentally oriented articles.
silver rises from around $10 to over $16 in the last year admittedly a roller coaster ride along the way
but with increasing nervousness about the dollar based on huge quantitative easing i fail to see how the technical market analysis by the guest can be considered persuasive
on top of that im not smart enough to understand the nuance of the wedges
so im going with flight of fear from the toasted dollar as my analysis with silver as a tag along with gold
with the understanding that silver as an indusrial metal may not fare as well
yeah i know ... im pretty lame
India and China don't seem to be following Fibozachi. Perhaps, in the several thousand years they have been playing the game, they have developed some different sort of analysis.
There's literally less silver in existence than gold. The most likely scenario is for the Chinese or Russians to force silver up, making the major U.S. banks buy to cover their
short positions. Of course, they can't cover in time. So, they'll be buried.
To an unprecendent degree, the Squid has been exploiting T/A in reverse, painting the tape to create double tops and rising wedges, etc., and using the well-known patterns against the T/A trader who still think charts reflect aggregate human emotion. Most traders aren't even human anymore.
Read this and weep. Seeing that Timmy G. guaranteed JP that the Fed would take all the losses for Bear Stearns positions I guess we are the ones holding the bag.
http://community.marketwatch.com/groups/small-silver-investor/topics/jp-morgans-silver-shorts-subtitle
Hard crowd.
The majority of people I know buying silver are the paranoid type that think there is a real possibility that the economy will collapse and one of the few things that will work for payment/barter will be silver (gold is too expensive now for the average paranoid person to buy in any quantity...and those little 10th ounce pieces get lost easily).
Sweet timing on publishing this rubbish.
CFTC may reduce position limits in Ag at the end of this month.
That would kind of mess up your charts, eh? (not to mention JPM's)...
CFTC may reduce position limits in Ag at the end of this month.
That would kind of mess up your charts, eh? (not to mention JPM's)...
At first sight the analysis sounds impressive.
Let's see what might be wrong with it.
The problem with trendlines is that there is no reason to believe that they can be extrapolated. In science that is a given; if I am not absolutely mistaken that was proven in finance too. Moreover, the contact points are subjective making it impossible to verify the whole process. To illustrate this point, take the "long-term bearish rising wedge" using an high from the old downtrend for the start of the upper line of the wedge. Taking the more logical high from march the upper line becomes parallel to the lower line and forming a trend channel.
The assertion that silver is in a bear market needs backing too.
A more fundamental problem with this analysis is the focus only on paper. The futures should have a connection to real metal. What about the supply/demand situation there?
Crowded trades. Borrow in dollars, buy commodities
for alpha and inflation hedge. Yet still no inflation, leaving the possibility of a dollar grab and brisk unwind of risk when Japan or China or Latvia bursts.
Wow what a load of crap
No mention of my study of silver ETF bars? No mention of the gold ETF anomalies discovered by Rob Kirby? No mention of the massive naked net short position held by the top four commercials (to include JP Morgan and HSBC)? What kind of analysis is this which neglects such important information?
Physical Silver (not hallucinated ETF pixels) is the best investment on the planet, perhaps only surpassed by storable food and medicine. Watch what happens under conditions of a 'sudden stop' , hyperdeflation, and/or currency crisis.
It's not far away.
Mr. Mayhem,
Do you have links to the study on silver ETF bars and to the gold ETF anomalies discovered by Rob Kirby? I've been following Ted Butler's op-ed pieces on the unprecedented concentrated short positions in the precious metals and particularly the most concentrated in silver.
Do you believe that Gensler will make exemptions for JP and other bullion banks for position limits in Gold and Silver?
Thanks,
Duffminster
"What kind of analysis is this which neglects such important information?"
The kind not based on reality obviously. Reminds me of those stories about the last days of WWII when Hilter was seen ordering the movement of nonexistent divisions on his map... it's a terrible thing to lose ones mind...
And yes it's not far away.
While the technical analysis seems steeped in strong traditional analytical methods and given the dimensions it works within it is likely accurate. I believe it misses two of the most powerful dimensions of the silver market. Decreasing trust in London and the futures markets and what may well be accelerating tightness in the London Cash markets.
The related vector is the dimension of the long term super concentrated shorts held by one or two of the largest bullion banks and also the level of derivatives trade in silver vs. the silver on the COMEX. When these factors are compounded with the seeming increase in global distrust in the US and London financial system and the associated vaulting of the precious metals by some of the very same bullion banks that engage in super concentrated shorting and observing what is happening to physical inventory in silver and gold, there seems to be a great deal of room for silver to run, especially if a large enough group of hedge funds begins to realize that silver is a lever for gold and decide to start taking serious physical delivery from COMEX in order to stuff the bullion banks at their own games of manipulation. I defer to GATA and Le Metropole Cafe for more technical details on the physical vs. futures divergences.
From yesterday's (November 2nd) COMEX movements.
SILVER
2,584,384 ozs withdrawn from the dealer’s (registered) inventory
1,042,628 ozs withdrawn from the customer (eligible) inventory
Total dealer inventory 52.70 Mozs
Total customer inventory 60.98 Mozs
Combined Total 113.68 Mozs
This is an incredible movement of silver out of COMEX. This is very unusual in size and in timing. The October delivery notices were for only 250,000 ozs of silver during the whole month. It appears there is a rather urgent need for physical silver by someone. Could it be that the super concentrated shorts want to gather enough silver to dump it back into the markets as a concentrated lever to keep gold from skyrocketing? Ok, pure speculation but what else could it mean?
I believe there is a significant probability that we are approaching a commercial signal failure in silver and perhaps gold as well and it seems there could be some real Physical tightness in the London cash market.
Note: I accidently posted this without being signed in, so if it shows up again under Anonymous, delete if possible. Thanks
While the technical analysis seems steeped in strong traditional analytical methods and given the dimensions it works within it is likely accurate. I believe it misses two of the most powerful dimensions of the silver. Decreasing trust in London and the futures markets and what may well be accelerating tightness in the London Cash markets.
The related dimension is the dimension of the long term super concentrated shorts held by one or two of the largest bullion banks and also the level of derivatives trade in silver vs. the silver on the COMEX. When these factors are compounded with the seeming increase in global distrust in the US and London financial system and the associated vaulting of the precious metals by some of the very same bullion banks that engage in super concentrated shorting and observing what is happening to physical inventory in silver and gold, there seems to be a great deal of room for silver to run, especially if a large enough group of hedge funds begins to realize that silver is a lever for gold and decide to start taking serious physical delivery from COMEX in order to stuff the bullion banks at their own games of manipulation. I defer to GATA and Le Metropole Cafe for more technical details on the physical vs. futures divergences.
From yesterday's (November 2nd) COMEX movements.
SILVER
2,584,384 ozs withdrawn from the dealer’s (registered) inventory
1,042,628 ozs withdrawn from the customer (eligible) inventory
Total dealer inventory 52.70 Mozs
Total customer inventory 60.98 Mozs
Combined Total 113.68 Mozs
This is an incredible movement of silver out of COMEX. This is very unusual in size and in timing. The October delivery notices were for only 250,000 ozs of silver during the whole month. It appears there is a rather urgent need for physical silver by someone. Could it be that the super concentrated shorts want to gather enough silver to dump it back into the markets as a concentrated lever to keep gold from skyrocketing? Ok, pure speculation but what else could it mean?
I believe there is a significant probability that we are approaching a commercial signal failure in silver and perhaps gold as well and it seems there could be some real Physical tightness in the London cash market.
and why all the T/A bashing? Silver bears have been slaughtered all year long, even if your ten-year vision is correct. What other tools do you use to time or frame your entry/exit points? Esp. for metals where there is no cashflow or P/E...
Here's a link to some decent data:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html
Just for grins, I selected the Oct 1999 and Oct 2009 charts (to exclude the blowout day silver had today).
Let's be generous to the silver bears and pick the highest price for Ag in 10/99: $5.70/oz. Let's pick the lowest price in 10/09: $16.25.
Now, let's do a little mathematics:
16.25 = 5.70(1 + r)^10
Trot out your log tables and you come up with r = 0.11, or an 11% rate of increase per year for the past decade. Will it continue? I'd rate the odds as better than even.
Edwards & Magee’s, 9th Edition of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
I prefer to call it the "Old Testament of T/A", and John Murphy's "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" as the New Testament".
Chartered Market Technician, out.
"Rising Wedge is a quite characteristic pattern for Bear Market Rallies. It is so typical, in fact, that frequent appearance of Wedges at a time when, after an extensive decline, there is some question as to whether a new Bull Trend is in the making may be taken as evidence that the Primary Trend is still down. When a Major Bear Swing ends in a Head-and-Shoulders Bottom, the last Rising Wedge will often appear as prices rally from the left shoulder to the neckline, and just before they break down to the head (final low)." blah blah blah blah blah.
Sorry, I have always found chart/"technical" analysis to be utter nonsense aimed at the rubes.
I found this analysis to be childish and irrelevant. Gold and Silver rising with the USD is evidence of a new flight to quality, just as the markets prepare for the next wave down. Go back and examine the Dec 2008 - Feb 2009 price action for a lesson in recent history. When India is buying 200 metric tons of gold, technical analysis is purely academic. Believe me, those in India exchanging sovereign paper and digital console blips for 200 metric tons of gold did not go off of a fibonacci retracement to make that decision. Get a clue.
where is gordon gekko?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7upG01-XWbY
WAY too dollar-centric in scope.
There are multiple sovereign nations currently on the verge of debt default and/or currency collapse.
It is not even necessary to include the US in this group (yet) to see why Gold demand continues to rise.
Where Gold goes, Silver will follow.
all of this is very interesting chart analysis, but it really doesn't mean much. we all know where the metals are going. its always a long term physical play anyway. paper gold and silver matter not to me nor to anyone who really knows what real money is all about. time is on my side, when it comes to the metals. constant manipulation by ppt, barrack, and the large banks, really doesn't matter. today it came out that india bought 1/2 of the gold offerings from the imf. would it be a stretch to say that china will buy the other half? i think not. the chinese put is still in play and the bottom is in now, no matter what these silly conniving banks do, they have lost the game and the emperor has no clothes and the asians know this and the asians see this and in time the sheep of this country will too. as a silver bug, i can say this. may God in His infinite mercy and goodness bless the coming third american revolution.....
Just remember the Rhyme of the Destitute Trader: "In the hold of every sunken ship, one shall always find a chart."
arr laddie. Good one. I am going to steal that line and amuse my trading desk.
Beware rising wedgies.
i can never figure out how charts are any good and any theory can be upheld when there is constant manipulation going on, at all times especially in the comex....
As an alternative title might I suggest: "Self-Fulfilling Prophcies: How big players with unlimited naked shorting authority manipulate market participants by painting the tape using known TA patterns."
Excellent article, and astute analysis. I expect both silver and gold to dive soon as well. Based on the real deflationary macro picture, and for technical reasons as well. At least, they SHOULD.
Whether this actually happens remains to be seen. Fundamentals and Technicals have not applied much the last six months. The Dow should be half of what it is today. And it seems to still be going.
As always, it's a question of whether you can hold out til the crash happens.
bearish wedge my ass....ha ha ha
indeed