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Is Silver Merely A Levered Gold Play?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A few interesting observations out of ETF Securities, which concludes that not only is silver a cheaper play on precious metal trends, but is the equivalent of a levered gold play. Yet based on the 50 year average gold/silver ratio of 50, silver still has about 20% upside to catch up to its technical value.

From ETF Securities

The silver price historically has often acted as a geared play on gold prices. Historically, silver returns tend to be more volatile than gold. Volatility is closer to an industrial metal than gold. When the gold price is rising, often the silver price outperforms. However, when the gold price falls, silver can fall sharply. As shown below, the ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) has seen returns close to the ETFS Leveraged Gold (LBUL) recently, and has outperformed ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU).

The silver to gold price ratio – a barometer closely watched by investors – remains below historic average price levels. Gold and silver have tended to follow each other over time. Despite substantial outperformance of silver relative to gold in 2009, the silver price continues to trade at a discount compared to gold in relation to its long run (50 year) average.

Silver prices remain below historic highs. In contrast to gold, silver prices remain below historic highs (see below). Note that, like gold, silver prices have performed strongly in all major currencies.

h/t Konrad

 

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Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:26 | 593570 VWbug
VWbug's picture

silver is going up partly as a play on economic recovery, if not in the USA at least in the ROW.

if you believe in coming economic collapse, silver makes no sense.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:31 | 593583 nwskii
nwskii's picture

No sense? In the case of economic collapse you take FRN's and Ill take some silver eagles and lets see who buys more. Its been a currency for about 5000 years.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:33 | 593590 VWbug
VWbug's picture

in an economic collapse i'll take USD or gold, you can keep your silver

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:35 | 593595 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Break it down bro???

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:30 | 593712 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Don't actually ask him to explain, it ruins his whole argument.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:07 | 593792 VWbug
VWbug's picture

so you believe silver will outperform gold in an economic collapse scenario, fine, I disagree wholeheartedly.

maybe the hypothesis will get tested in a few years.

 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:17 | 593923 samsara
samsara's picture

 

"so you believe silver will outperform gold in an economic collapse scenario, fine, I disagree wholeheartedly."

 

You mean Perform on the Stage of International Markets I believe right?  

Well, Outside the markets....

I think both would be useful depending on what volume and level.  

If you are bartering for something small (some gas or food or something) 10 or 100's of Silver Coins would be better than an oz of Gold.   (Hey, you got change for a Gold Eagle?  All i wanted was a couple gallons of gas...

Now if you were bartering for something large like a small property with house,  Oz of Gold would be better to have than 1000's of silver coins.

Like now,  Shopping with Cash, do you want to break $100 dollar bills all the time or just have some 10s and 20's on you?

 

 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:07 | 593793 THE 4th Quadrant
THE 4th Quadrant's picture

That was the funniest comment on ZH yet. Thanks for the laugh.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:33 | 593723 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Let them believe silver makes no sense while I'm busy buying at every dip. No problem there.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:18 | 593925 VWbug
VWbug's picture

take a few minutes to look at how silver performed vs gold in the last crash 1100-T, it might save you from making an goof. JMHO.

these other guys get emotional about all this and take disagreements personally. be objective and it'll serve you well in the long run.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:27 | 593704 nwskii
nwskii's picture

good luck breaking that down into change 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:33 | 593588 merehuman
merehuman's picture

VW Bug, consistent contrarian. Do you enjoy always being on the wrong side?   "silver makes no sense" Evidently you dont think or research before you blurt your inane comments, usually disparaging . Junked you.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:35 | 593596 VWbug
VWbug's picture

yes i do enjoy being consistent and contrarian.

as for this particular debate, i merely hold that silver is a worse bet than gold in a scenario of economic collpase.

haven't heard a rebuttal yet...

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:40 | 593609 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Rebuttal: Since most average folk can't buy gold they have bought silver. @ least out here in the cuntry.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:49 | 593621 VWbug
VWbug's picture

that's not a rebuttal of my argument that silver will perform worse than gold in an economic collapse, but at least it is a rational reason to hold silver.

About the only other reason I can think of to hold it is if you are trying to hedge in case the economy roars back, but i thought this was ZERO hedge : )

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:53 | 593636 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

I ain't dissn u VW, IF it were to go Mad Max, a dozen eggs would prob out perform eveything.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:16 | 593682 Misstrial
Misstrial's picture

VW:

Mexico is currently considering a return to the silver standard. In remarks quoted by the NYT:

 "...by Senor LIMANTOUR, the Mexican Minister of Finance, leave no room for doubt as to the nature of the change which Mexico is to make in her currency system. "We are not trying to make Mexico a gold country," says the Mexican Minister."

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F10E14FD385D16738DDDA8099...

The pdf is accessible at the above.

~Misstrial

 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:41 | 593747 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Um, I think that article was from 1903? See the bottom...?

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 07:22 | 594292 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

It's been stuck in committee since Senor Limantour died in 1935.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:41 | 593613 merehuman
merehuman's picture

A 90% silver dime may well buy a loaf of bread. Would you proffer a krug for that same loaf?

Unlike gold silver has many uses.Electric wire being one.

 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:23 | 593935 VWbug
VWbug's picture

A 90% silver dime may well buy a loaf of bread

i'm sure it will, but is this the scale of what we are talking about? having a jar of dimes available?

i was thinking more in terms of whether to buy 1,000 ounces of gold or 50,000 ounces of silver

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:43 | 593965 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Both are good, but silver is better.

BTW, good luck finding 50,000 ounces of bullion. 1000 oz bars are scare to non-existent. It's going to be in 100 ounce bars mostly.  And that's why silver is better. Gold is available...silver not.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:49 | 593973 VWbug
VWbug's picture

i seriously doubt i'll be buying anything like those amounts, i'm just saying, is it really worth debating when the amounts you are talking about are under $1,000? I mean, seriously?

if you haven't got 1300 bucks, why waste time talking about investments?

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 10:18 | 594577 flacon
flacon's picture

I had talked to ScotiaBank about ordering 30,000 ounces of silver (one ton). 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 10:42 | 594617 VWbug
VWbug's picture

i'd be very surprised if they couldn't arrange it.

when i used to work there there were two old boys who used to come in and check out their gold holdings, which were some crazy amount like a ton or something like that.

they kept it for many, many years, and probably still have it, it finally paid off, but they gave up huge gains compared to stocks over that time.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:52 | 593981 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

...iiii was thinking more in terms of whether to buy 1,000 ounces of gold or 50,000 ounces of silver

 

Oh I see, you are a woman, now we can understand how you are leading the conversation.

If you are talking your book, well you would be a fool to buy 50k oz of ONLY silver, but you would be a bigger fool to only hold 2 and a half 400oz bars of gold.

 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 01:10 | 594103 Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

When my parents were kids, they could see a movie and buy a bag of popcorn and a soft drink for a dime. Maybe after the coming economic collapse, we can go back to pre-inflated prices again? Maybe?

Hey, a guy can dream can't he??

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 09:21 | 594435 Anton LaVey
Anton LaVey's picture

Hmmm.

Just think for a minute or two about the kind of economic collapse that would have to take place for you to be able to enjoy your movie, pop-corn and soft drink for a dime. I am not sure I'd like to go there.

That's not a "dream", that's a nightmare. We are talking about something that would make the 1929 Great Depression seem like a walk in the park. Food for thought.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:50 | 593629 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

2/3's of silver mined is as a by-product or co-product, so in an economic downturn, silver supplies would be severely reduced, industrial demand might take a hit, but investment demand has doubled each year for the last four years after being flat for a decade.  My physical is 10:1 silver to gold, I only started buying gold in the 900's and would rather see more metal for my money if I'm spending just a couple of grand.  Think about the middle class in India, China, Russia, hell pretty much any country in Asia, ME or SA, how many gold ounces do you think they can afford when they start to realize their USD under their matress on in the bank ain't working out so well, somone who is making $5-$20K per year is going to buy silver not gold, and a large percentage of the world's population is in this tax bracket.

Economic collapse - the USD is devaluing by the day and you only want to exchange a small amount of PM to buy what you need for the week cuz any FRN's you're holding next week will be worth half or less, would you rather trade in a 10oz bar of silver or an ounce of gold in that scenario?  And if you're buying gold at sizes less than one ounce you're paying big premiums.  But I think the gov't would peg their gold to market rates before this happened.............that is if they even have some of the gold they claim to have.............

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:13 | 593806 THE 4th Quadrant
THE 4th Quadrant's picture

Nice. 10:1 silver to gold. Depending on your entry point that sounds like a good balance.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:09 | 593670 spinone
spinone's picture

What are you going to make change for a gold coin with?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:44 | 593967 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

I expect gold and silver coins will be cut into pieces to make change.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 13:31 | 600254 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

1964 and before silver dimes and quarters don't need to be cut apart.

 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 00:11 | 594002 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

I don't get why it matters. Sell it for whatever you want man. Take the new paper money then. It doesn't have to end like "The Road" to make sense. The point is what you hoard holds its value, when you sell it you can take two cartons of Luckies, a 40 of JD and a massage, or just 100000000000 FRN's, or whatever munny the government is using then. Humans aren't going to abandon paper currency just because a country or two goes TU.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:12 | 593673 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

Johnny Bravo? Master Bates? Jon Nadler? Is that you?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:30 | 593709 VWbug
VWbug's picture

i favour gold over silver, and am slightly bullish gold in general (but might decide not to hold any for a few months during an economic crash).

Do the guys you mention have the same view or do you not have a clue?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:00 | 593901 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, you do that.

I'll have one of my servants grind your bones for phosphorous.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:37 | 593952 VWbug
VWbug's picture

i do hope to benefit greatly from an economic collapse, since i'll be able to buy a nice beach house on the cheap, plus i am shorting stocks on rallies a lot of the time.

i think chances are about 30% of this scenario playing out.

hope i am wrong and it is higher, but i doubt i'll get that lucky.

if you are betting on mad max i look forward to laughing at your losses  (not to mention your wasted years of preparing for a non event) 

 : )

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 04:27 | 594226 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I'm not betting on anything.  Events happen. Type, length, severity, who knows, who cares.  Preparing just a little bit is PRUDENT, as is diversifying, some gold, some silver, some food, some guns, some booze, etc....  Oh, and does your name refer to the VW in Castle Keep.

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 10:39 | 594607 VWbug
VWbug's picture

i think that's wise.

some people here are pretty closed minded though, and they at least talk like they are betting heavily on silver and an economic collapse.

Not sure why i am bothering to try and save them some $$$, but there are a few people here who are new to investing that might foolishly follow their lead, that would be a shame.

Anyway, right now silver looks good, due to economic recovery taking hold, so some of these guys will have the right position based on being dead wrong about the market, kinda funny and not all that unusual. lol

VW is just a car i liked as a kid, and it's sort of a play on 'gold bug'. That's about as creative as i get.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:42 | 593963 tyler
tyler's picture

I wasn't very creative with my name damn.  But if you haven't figured out silver is a superior investment to gold by now maybe this link will help.

http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/136.cfm

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:50 | 593976 samsara
samsara's picture

Again, I think it's important to realize that it's all from a "Markets" perspective.  What the price is today vs next month or the like. Whether it performs or not on some Market.

There are a whole other group of buyers are buying to hold, For LONG term regardless of what the market does on a day to day basis. 

Their hedge is against the of not having a "Market" at all. When it might be this many oz of one, equals something of value you want without a dollar representation at all in the transaction. 

By "Market", I mean like Comex, etc.   Not the grocery market down the street.

Arguments with mixture of both groups of buyers is very confusing and emotional.

Being a buy and hold till... guy,  I look at the price everyday, but it doesn't matter to me on a daily basis whether the price of Ag(how much paper for an oz of real) goes up.  But it doesn't really matter to me whether it's 18,20 25,15... etc other than I would probably buy more the lower it goes. That would be it.  Preference of whether to buy Au vs Ag is usually based on how much one is going to invest.

But a Buyer of Current Value Trader Guy would watch the charts, plot off entry and exit points, buy on the dips,  sell on the up, catch it when it comes back down... Choices of whether to buy Au or Ag are made using the same scoring logic. Just repeat.

The two buyers shouldn't argue together.  It just frustrating.  And neither is wrong.

Seems like...

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 00:03 | 593991 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

...A very nice analysis, and very well put.

I love silver, I have lots of it, enough dimes and quarters and halfs to buy thousands of loaves of bread and gallons of gas, and am leveraged to the hilt in slv options on its hopeful move upward. But, I would not fill the garage with it. Gold is good as well, usefull for buying boats and houses, got some of that too. Im also way long guns, ammo and tuna fish, but thats another thread.

 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 00:21 | 594014 samsara
samsara's picture

Yes,  Different Assets have different values in different frameworks or realities I guess we're saying.  

 

 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 00:52 | 594068 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

I agree, everyone has their priorities in what they see in "their" future, it is fantastic to see what other people are thinking here, and how they are planning it. It does not matter if they are saving for three months to buy a roll of silver quarters or if they are contemplating cornering the comex, all valid arguments for or against are welcome.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:34 | 593725 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture


 i merely hold that silver is a worse bet than gold in a scenario of economic collpase.

haven't heard a rebuttal yet...

When the dollar collapses, all those saved and hoarded silver coins will return to circulation, but at 100 to 1000 to even 10,000 times value. That is your rebuttal.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:39 | 593959 VWbug
VWbug's picture

uh yeah....ok....

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:40 | 593741 breezer1
breezer1's picture

silver functions as money when paper collapses. there will always be an industrial demand due to it's unique properties. 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:03 | 593785 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Depending on which side of the bet you want to take, valid opinions can take both sides.  (I hold both, nearly evenly in terms of value.)

I feel that while both are a store of wealth, I have said many times that I see both gold and silver as protection, but that I see silver having an investment upside potential as it (if it) closes the gap on gold.  I understand that silver has perhaps more volatility potential; that can work both ways.  In your case of discussing economic collapse, I predict that silver will close in on the AU/AG ratio, AND be more functional as a currency.  As has been said before, most Americans have never seen a gold coin.  Think the average dude isn't gonna be pretty skeptical about believing an Eagle is worth $1300? (todays value for convenience)  Every last old farmer has seen a Morgan.  Assuming we're going all the way to Mad Max barter, you really wanna be gnawing off slivers of a Maple Leaf, or spending a Mercury Dime? 

Since you seem to enjoy being the contrarian, I'm assuming you read this, but it makes a lot of the refutes you "were looking for".

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/weekly-peak-silver-next-gold

Silver has never NOT been a store of wealth, or generally speaking a currency in the past.  Why wouldn't it be going forward?

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 14:13 | 595068 DosZap
DosZap's picture

As a rule the people who recommend how to position oneself, is 60% Silver /40% Gold, at around 35% of your Portfolio.

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 11:48 | 594773 Saucy-Jack
Saucy-Jack's picture

Try buying a pack of smokes with gold.

 

Demand for silver will be huge as it will be the currency of every day transacations.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:23 | 593696 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Since silver production is often as a bi-metal, a drop in demand for lead, zinc, or copper (associated metals to silver) there could be a large fall off in silver production. Those folks buying Silver Wheaton should be careful as virtually all of their silver is the result of companies primarily mining other metals, with silver as a by product.

 

I could make a case that a slow down in industrial production willincrease the value of silver above ground.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:26 | 593571 Segestan
Segestan's picture

This was posted at Harvey Organs site.

Better get on the winning side... buy Silver.

 

 

http://agaupm.com/bnp-paribas-buys-physical-silver-at-20-58/

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:26 | 593572 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

The 50 year gold/silver ratio is 50, but sometimes a reversion to the mean can involve an overshoot.  Silver juniors, explorers and microcaps with large reserves (200Moz+) will have the largest gains during a silver bull run.  David Morgan states during a PM bull market, at the peak gold miners are valued at 30x PE, while silver at 50x PE, but I think there has only been one in recent memory.  There are very few pure silver miners of any size compared to a multitude of gold miners.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:28 | 593575 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

HI - HOE SILVER... Bitc......Dammit spilled my beer...

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:58 | 593645 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

LOL

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:41 | 593611 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

"Yet based on the 50 year average gold/silver ratio of 50, silver still has about 20% upside to catch up to its technical value."

 

Or, more realistically: Bubble gold falls 25%.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:00 | 593651 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

Do you think there would be any buyers of physical gold if it fell back to the $1050 level?  Or would people and Central Banks just give up on it as an alternate to fiat and move on to the next alternative to fiat?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:07 | 593794 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

If it fell to $1050 tomorrow, I means I will buy exactly 35.7% more of it this week than I will if it hits $1300.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:20 | 593820 THE 4th Quadrant
THE 4th Quadrant's picture

I've been meaning to tell you that you look a lot like ellen degeneres.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:29 | 593944 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

She does have that coon mask look.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:47 | 593625 merehuman
merehuman's picture

gold falls against a failing fiat? Gold aint fallen. Its always been at the bottom. Its monetary foundation, base. Value is measured by it. In other words the green bits of government paper are worth.. nothing to me. I refuse to take them. One of the main reasons i am not working now. The dollar is the illegitemate child of robber barons

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:08 | 593795 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Exceptionally well said.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:50 | 593628 George Costanza
George Costanza's picture

remember, inflation in things that are needed, like silver. Deflation in things that are wanted, like housing.  

 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:51 | 593630 99er
99er's picture

Chart: SI

Silver futures appear to have dropped out of a Rising Wedge so now may not be the best time to buy.

http://www.screencast.com/t/ODY5ZDVmZjkt

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:09 | 593798 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Johnny Bravo, is that you?

Didn't you tell me to sell all my gold $60 ago?

 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:37 | 593855 Hulk
Hulk's picture

but its a rising wedge Colonel, can't you just feel it?

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 07:46 | 594303 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

If it was dropping in price it would make dropping wedges. LOL

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 20:51 | 593631 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

I have been trying to ask Harvey Organ if traders are requesting silver delivery, and waiting for a cash offer, which they refuse, but offer to accept gold. Possible?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:20 | 593689 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Probably not.

They have borrowed/pledged/shorted in paper obligaions, in both, more than they can cover in either devalued cash or rising metal.

They're screwed and they know it. Good riddance.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:21 | 593693 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

You're assuming they have physical gold to offer. Forget it. It's mostly paper in that warehouse. Right now it's just a matter of keeping a lid on the boiling pot while the power elite debate what laws congress should pass when the COMEX defaults.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:15 | 593680 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

it may not be sophisticated analysis but silver is cheaper.  many who buy silver may want gold but they cant afford it.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:18 | 593685 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

The historical gold/silver price ratio is in my book a useful tool but one that has its usefullness based on its description... historical. The use of the rearview mirror (IMHO) will be a fatal mistake for those considering the timing of their jump into the market.

If reports issued by GFMS, CME and the US Geological Survey are to be held as valid, then the current "silver/gold supply ratio" is more important.

The mere fact that silver is "currently" 6 times rarer than gold (6:1), then the bias on the price ratio has to be skewed regarding forward supply pressures. This in my view weights the price of silver as critically undervalued, particularly for the miners who are still not in any great hurry to develop mines, nor extract minerals at sufficient demand rates at the current price levels.

If reports by Jason Hommel and others, about the $200 billion (approx)  OTC derivatives contracts as reported by the BIS are true, (its in black and white as a line entry called "PM others" and Mr. Hommel believes that these are "naked short" contracts that will have to be bought back or defaulted on) ... then they are yet to be recognized by world investors as an investment opportunity as a play against the other team, knowing they will have to act against billowing losses at some stage. 

Yes, the ag/au price ratio is important historically but only as a measure of where silver should be. I believe it will revert to a 1:1 ratio and the math of the supply ratio tells an even more prospective story.

Levered play? Yep

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:31 | 593717 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Right now, the governments have all deluded us to think silver is an industrial metal only. This explains the ridiculous 65 to 1 ratio. When enough people accept silver as money, the ratio of 15 to 1 will return and very quickly. And if silver is really as scarce as suggested, the ratio will be much smaller.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:43 | 593753 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Is that supposed to trigger a response from a time bomb?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 21:47 | 593762 Golden Suck And...
Golden Suck And Pilferage Inc. Eighty Five Main's picture

I think VWBug has it wrong in that silver may lose its ratio to gold during an economic collapse - and possibly backwards whilst the the dollar will fare on par with gold.  Arb has been around since the commodity markets opened.  Why did grains rise in price when corn was in demand for ethanol production?  The reason silver is so closely correlated to gold is not just they are both rare metals but arb keeps the price in check.  The dollar will decrease in value and gold and silver will inflate.  Silver is levered the same way as microsoft is levered against google.  Msft is more affordable per share.  If gold spikes a dollar can be made by buying the laggard. 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:17 | 593800 mee-mee-mee
mee-mee-mee's picture

Nice charts. Silver is going to the moon.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:48 | 593971 JLee2027
Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:24 | 593816 VWbug
VWbug's picture

took me 2 minutes to look at some charts for gold and silver during the last crash, 2008 to 2009.

Silver went from $20 to about $8.50

Gold from $1,000 to $700

Looks like my hunch has some support. Sorry for all you guys who can't afford gold.

But you might do well if the world economy booms, maybe you should turn bullish. : )

(or at least you could do 2 minutes of research before investing your hard earned paychecks)

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:43 | 593872 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

and when it did fall to $8.50, physical silver was unavailable from every bullion dealer that I contacted, trying to buy. Hmmmmm.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:07 | 593912 VWbug
VWbug's picture

man you people make me wonder sometimes, lol.

the post was about SILVER vs GOLD, get it?

I favour gold in a scenario of financial crisis, economic collapse, mad max, etc.

who the fuck cares what was available or not at $8.50?

i mean i barely read the posts, but at least i have SOME idea of what the debate is

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 00:15 | 594005 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture


took me 2 minutes to look at some charts for gold and silver during the last crash, 2008 to 2009.

Silver went from $20 to about $8.50

Gold from $1,000 to $700

Looks like my hunch has some support. 

Oh come on. Silver rose from 8.50 to 20.77 and Gold from 700 to 1285. Which had a better return since 2008? Hint: If Gold has risen to 1900 you'd have a case.

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 08:24 | 594347 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Still it didn't. The 8.50 price tag was a lie. A few people got in at 10 but it just wasn't available till 11 to 12.

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 14:34 | 595160 VWbug
VWbug's picture

Oh come on. Silver rose from 8.50 to 20.77 and Gold from 700 to 1285. Which had a better return since 2008? Hint: If Gold has risen to 1900 you'd have a case.

so what part of 'economic collapse' did you not understand?

I even made it clear that in RECOVERY silver will do well, probably better than gold due to silver having more use as an industrial metal.

I really have to stop wasting my time with you people, lol, it's like talking to 4 year olds.

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 06:53 | 594277 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

WTF? I've barely read the post but I know it all. Good for you big fella. 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:04 | 593909 tmosley
tmosley's picture

2 minutes, eh?

Methinks that amount of time would have been better spent watching TV.  Three years of research on my part say silver is the better investment, though gold certainly ain't bad.  Dollars, however, are TERRIBLE.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:12 | 593916 VWbug
VWbug's picture

guess you missed the last crisis, or maybe this time it will be different?

I do watch a lot of tv, but also spend a lot of time travelling and other nice leisure pursuits.

Time i spend worried about mad max scenario: 0

 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 06:19 | 594265 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Have you ever thought about the possibility that what you are observing is not the price of gold or silver going up but the value of world fiat currency going down?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:06 | 593911 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

So VW, is this your argument why gold will do better than silver?  Silver down 57.5% and gold down 30% during the last crash?

Is that it or is there more to it?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:14 | 593921 VWbug
VWbug's picture

pretty much, plus a reading of sentiment.

people believe in gold as a safe haven, not in silver.

investing based on a historic ratio holding is the single weakest rationale i have ever heard.

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 06:33 | 594268 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Having read through your posts so far, I have come to the conclusion that you are an idiot.  

What happened in 2008 and how it impacted gold and silver was a unique set of circumstances, but I would explain it thus - silver at $20 was priced as an industrial metal, highly correlated with copper, nickel and aluminum.  During the massive liquidity squeeze, all assets fell, hell everything fell relative to the Dollar, as the lending markets ground to a halt and dollars became scarce.  When the Fed began to pump liquidity back into the system, silver began to rise, now being more correlated with gold prices as a store of value as people saw the difference between using monetary policy in order to prevent the banking system collapsing and using monetary and fiscal policy in order to reshape the economy and generate real growth.

 

Add to that, people began to realize the central banks had been trying to keep the lack of supply in the silver market hidden since 1979, i.e. that the Hunt brothers were correct in that silver is the easiest market to corner.  More people understood the commercial shorts in silver far outstripped supply and that physical silver therefore has the following benefits:

It cannot be debased, it has been a store of value for thousands of years, it is very useful in a number of industrial processes, there is a clear supply demand imbalance with regards physical, and lastly, it is cheap.

As for the argument of gold being a safe haven versus silver, both have been used as money for far longer than you or I.  Post the Spanish conquest of Mexico, but prior to the discovery of the silver mines in Bolivia and Peru, silver was worth more than gold.  Of course, if you like to watch movies, pirates always want gold and bad guys prefer to steal gold bars... so maybe that's where you did your research.

Is silver a precious metal or an industrial metal?  Yes

Is it undervalued?  Yes

How high could it go?  There are two things that could cause a massive spike.  One is the mother of all short squeezes, when it could exceed the top from 1980.  In all likelihood, once the shorts have been forced to cover, it could fall back quite quickly.  Secondly, the fiat money system could come under a severe constraint (for example if it turns out most US mortgages could not be foreclosed on and borrowers could simply stop paying, leavign the Fed to bailout the banks again), or Italy blows up in Europe.

 

 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 07:05 | 594283 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

"Having read through your posts so far, I have come to the conclusion that you are an idiot."

Concur:

This guy is another disingenuous and verbose dill. I have no idea what the fuck he is talking about, and that's having tried to remain objective about his "points of view" (?). 

I'm nominating you for an honorary degree in psychology, as recognition of your abilities in diagnosis.

Edit. LOL.

 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 10:59 | 594655 VWbug
VWbug's picture

I have no idea what the fuck he is talking about

i've said about 3 times here, my point is silver is partly an industrial metal and is not seen as a safe haven by the general public as much as gold is, so in times of crisis, economic collapse it will perform less well than gold.

You can't understand that and i'm the idiot?

hahaha

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 16:06 | 595582 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Just a bit of rearview watching on the performance of silver to gold. As a warning, it may take more than two minutes. Silver in times of crisis outperformed gold big time. There are charts there for you being as you like looking at pictures.

http://thedailygold.com/chartstechnicals/silver-vs-gold/?p=2216/

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 11:03 | 594670 VWbug
VWbug's picture

it's obvious but i have to say, you should change your name to man without a clue.

not one word in all that that says how silver will outperform gold in a crisis, except the usual 'this time it will be different:

What happened in 2008 and how it impacted gold and silver was a unique set of circumstances

 

good luck there genius!

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 02:30 | 594168 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I like both. Silver is for essentials like hookers and going to the grocery store (for more beer). Gold is more portable, stable and doesn't require as much digging in the back yard. Silver has been more manipulated and volatile. If one believes the CFTC revelations, the PM naked shorts are being forced off both, allowing silver to catch up from being more abused, so it's attractive right now. An astute buy at $8.50 would have given you a double+ in Ag. A safe haven USD may not be a player in the next crises.

 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:20 | 593818 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

My silver junior of choice is Tinka Resources listed on the TSXV. Peruvian deposit with vast exploration potential. But because I own a boatload of it, forget I mentioned it. I would not like to be seen as crass and self-serving.

Honest...

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:58 | 593876 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Next Monday is Gold Expiry Bitchez

 

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/3/8/144976283.html

 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:55 | 593984 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Yes, Ag beats Au in commodity bull mkts and Au beats Ag in the bear phases.  No news there.  From a trading perspective, Silver Bullion Trust is suddenly at a 7% premium to NAV, Gold Trust at a 3% premium, and Central Fund only at an 8% premium.  The same guys (Spicer family et al) run all 3.  A few months ago, Gold Trust (GTU) was at a 5-7% premium and SBT was at a 1% premium or so.  And PHYS is at a very small premium to NAV.  Not long ago it was 12% over.

So I rolled partly out of SBT (SVRZF, not a very liquid trading vehicle) into PHYS today.  Who knows, but I'm sensing a bit too much enthusiasm amongst traders vs. relative apathy for the best structural bull market anyone has seen since the heyday of the NAZ, and that's Au. 

My trading account really doesn't care what ratio gold and silver may/will have at some theoretical future date. 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 01:15 | 594105 Bow Tie
Bow Tie's picture

being honest i didn't really know much about silver when i first started buying gold (900s) but after learning about the PM markets in general i now own a fair amount. silver seems like it has a lot more upside potential, both on the technical (ratio, supply) and manipulation (gargantuan shorts, no CB silver) basis.

i'd own more of it than gold if it were not for having to pay or try to get around the 17.5% VAT charged on physical silver here in the UK. most of europe has a VAT on silver, whereas gold generally has none. a reason why europeans will probably favour gold overall. a great alternative option is owning some allocated, vaulted silver VAT-free.

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 08:55 | 594388 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

There is no VAT on silver purchased in Guernsey.  I believe Guernsey is quite close to the UK...

 

http://www.guernseymint.com/

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 05:26 | 594248 Jan van Eyck
Jan van Eyck's picture

Gunpowder will be more valuable than gold or silver should collapse come.Nothing like black powder.

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 05:55 | 594258 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"i'd own more of it than gold if it were not for having to pay or try to get around the 17.5% VAT charged on physical silver here in the UK."

Now, even money is taxed. Perfect.

So at some point I suppose some enterprising bureaucrat toiling away in the belly of the beast will propose a fee be charged for the collection of the taxes on money itself. And another will say YES!...why we could even stagger the fee schedule & taxes based on a persons ability to pay...LOL.

I guess I shouldn't laugh...this is how vampires think.

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 07:14 | 594285 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Shut up! Shut up! Do not give them ideas!!

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 11:02 | 594663 flacon
flacon's picture

US Citizens have to pay "capital gains tax" on precious metals.

 

They tax you when you earn money. They tax you when you save money. They tax you when you spend money. They tax your property. They tax just about anything and everything they can. 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 07:29 | 594295 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I'm sticking with Silver's 5000+ years of use as real money. Spanish sailors risked and lost their lives carrying boat loads of this supposed industrial metal across the Atlantic. Now, we use bits of paper with green ink that can be mass produced to the infinite. Paper can burn or be damaged by water, also faked or debased by careless governments. Good thing the Spanish were not into fiat. A sunken galleon full of paper dollars would not make much fun for all the metal detector nuts on the Treasure Coast.    

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 08:00 | 594318 Cheyenne
Cheyenne's picture

I put my condo up for sale last week at a good price (for now). When it sells, I'm sinking 100% of the equity into physical silver.

Folks point to the smack down of PM's in late 2008, which is fair enough. But that's exactly when I backed the truck up on #79, before the world regained its senses and realized that gold and silver function as money first and foremost.

I've hit a lot of fat perfectas before, but silver... Well, that's a lay-up if you've been watching recent action at COMEX and LMBA.

 

 

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 10:58 | 594651 Crispy
Crispy's picture

100%? Im just a anon message board poster of course, but that sounds excessive. Just saying....

Tue, 09/21/2010 - 10:48 | 594627 Crispy
Crispy's picture

The avg is a horse blinder. The bands folks...its all about the bands...

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Herry12's picture

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