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Silver Retraces Two Thirds Of Overnight Hit Job, Crude At Highest Since August 2008

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so once again rumors of silver's demise appear largely exaggerated: after plunging 15% last night, getting all the top callers to once again proclaim victory after having been wrong for the good part of about one decade, silver has since retraced a key Fib level and has now recovered over two thirds of the drop. At this rate, at least a few more margin hikes will be desperately needed today to throw all available speed bumps in the path of the unstoppable metal. In the meantime as expected last night's forced plunge was a gift for anyone who bought at $42 and has made over 10% already. Elsewhere, crude is approaching $115, after hitting $110 overnight. It is now at the highest price it has been since August 2008, and guaranteeing $5 gas by the summer. So much for the bin Laden inverse rally in commodities.

 

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Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:05 | 1229252 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

RBOB just hit a new high so all the walmart shoppers should appreciate that.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:09 | 1229273 wang
wang's picture

Gartman says Killing Osama a mistake - turns him into a martyr

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42855818

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:47 | 1229493 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

45->49 => 50 is close

49->45 => Correction is inevitable

48->42 => Nothing

42->46 => 50% retracement is onboard.

Why don't ZH admit that Silver is being manipulated like Bush in the White house, and that no amount of buy and hope will work...

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:21 | 1229712 H. Perowne
H. Perowne's picture

You really need to pay more attention if you think that anyone here who isn't a paid shill doesn't think that the PM markets are more manipulated than the CPI. The point is that the usual tricks which have served our beloved bankstas so well are no longer working, and it's taking more and more juice just to buy Blythe and Co a precious few hours of breathing room. The weekend snowjob was nothing more than a fire sale to anyone who gets the big picture. But hey, enjoy being wrong, you've got plenty of company.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:27 | 1230547 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I would love to know how many tons of physical Silver was purchased during this dip.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:33 | 1230565 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

NONE.  It happened between 6pm yesterday to 9am this morning.  

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:53 | 1230683 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Hey dumb fuck!  I bought more than a few ounces of physical.  Didn't matter what time it was.  I'm sure I was not alone.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 15:27 | 1231159 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Liar!!!

From Sunday 6pm to this morning, you bought physical.  Where, how much and in what continent?

Maybe you placed an order over the internet, but I highly doubt it. 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:32 | 1230563 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

My point is, on this topic, ZH itself is a manipulator.  (I understand that there are bull/bear in every market.)  But the way that ZH posts these news... not even pretending to be bias-free.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:31 | 1230571 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I guess you get your fair and balanced from Fox, then?

Why should they PRETEND to be bias free?  No-one is bias free.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 15:42 | 1231168 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Fair enough, but in general, with regard to the banks, GSEs, Financial Reform, ZH seems to be pretty fair and breaking news left and right.  With regard to silver and gold, they lie, tilt and generally one-sided.

 

Case in point, look at this post's headline...  and the tag says crude, it has nothing about Crude...

47->43 => Nothing...

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:46 | 1229722 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

OTOH: is it really wise to go against potentially thousands of millions of motivated people with 50 bucks, a singular purpose, and the will to get it done?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:32 | 1230582 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Forget about the blatant assumption that you are making...  What you are really saying is:  All Market display effcient prices, and none of the movements matter...

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:48 | 1229921 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Oh yeah, thanks for enlightening us about manipulation there, Master Yoda.

 

Picard Facepalm

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:09 | 1229291 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

But I thought Bush said you're either with us or against us.  Does this mean I cannot trust my respected leaders? 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:11 | 1229301 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Not leaders, paid 'public' servants.....They seem to get it confused too

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:30 | 1229416 Datafox
Datafox's picture

Just a bully tactic.

I say eliminate the threat and let others choose their sides. Eventually they may grow up and see the folly of their ways. If not... Well, then they will choose to stay in the dark ages and we'll still be free.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:32 | 1229422 oddjob
oddjob's picture

What we need is another Gartman sell rec. on gold for another $65 dollar gain.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:42 | 1229460 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Hey WANG, whats with the pictures it's a parking lot? C'mon will ya....

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:12 | 1230108 kito
kito's picture

the sheeple get up at 4am for the kohls one day store sale. im up at 4am to buy the jp morgan one day silver sale.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:03 | 1229253 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Things that make you go hmmmmm

2004-(5) - Silver goes from $4.50 to $8.25 in 9 months for an 83% gain.  Silver then crashes almost 30% to $5.50 in six weeks.

2005-(6) - Silver goes from $6.50 to $15 in 9 months for a 130% gain.  Silver then collapses 35% to $9.50 over a brutal eight weeks.

2007-(8) - Silver goes from $11.50 to $21 in 7 months for an 83% gain.  Silver then gets crushed by 25% to $16 over six weeks.

2010-(11) - Silver goes from $18 to $49 in 8 months for a 172% gain.  Silver then crashes x% for a loss of $yy over six weeks.

I wonder how the pattern will complete this time.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:11 | 1229286 Raynja
Raynja's picture

I'm petty sure everyone here already knows you don't sell the dips, you buy them. Thanks for the additional evidence of this!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:12 | 1229311 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Buy the dips, but don't forget to sell the mania rallies!

I bet this dip has a lot more dipping to go.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:42 | 1229475 Raynja
Raynja's picture

True silver could dip further, but why is it going to dip more than previous corrections when it is in backwardation and the dollar is falling?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:48 | 1229512 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Dollar has been falling all decade.  Yet silver made those same corrections.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:30 | 1230189 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

That is the biggest bunch of bullshit you've spouted out of your blowhole.  The dollar chart looks like a rollercoaster of manipulation and throughout it all people have been calling a bubble in the PMs...just like you.  The DXY isn't even down to the lows of 2008...yet.  It's getting closer every day though.  That smell...it's fear and sharts.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:32 | 1230219 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Wait, so the dollar is a roller coaster but Silver IS NOT???

Talk about blind.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:34 | 1230590 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Roller coasters go up and down, but they are biased downward, as they are driven by gravity.

Silver is biased upwards, but only because the ground is falling away from below it.  That is because it is entering orbit.

Good luck catching up.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:47 | 1230664 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

But in both directions they go.  Why not wait for silver to fall to the low $30's before buying any more?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:03 | 1230766 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Because the wait could be forever.  I would rather dollar cost average.

But I'm sure you wouldn't understand that logic, as you only know 100% immediate commitment in a single direction that you change on a dime for no real reason other than a "feeling" that the price is "parabolicky".

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:09 | 1230794 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

And yet, here you are, holding a $49 bag.

How's that working for ya?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:55 | 1229546 Hot Piece of Bass
Hot Piece of Bass's picture

Is anybody running a tally on this guy's bad calls/losses?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:04 | 1229594 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I'm actually very green on my silver puts.  Almost 20k at the moment.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:40 | 1229874 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Bull. Shit.

You're not fooling anyone.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:51 | 1229951 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

If you say so.  I loaded up at the open a week ago today, turned out to be a great call.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:55 | 1230005 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, except you aren't covering, because like a fool you think it is going to the low $30's.

Enjoy your total losses, knife catcher.

Christ, and you call US inexperienced.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:34 | 1230233 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I'm sweet green buddy.  Remember the morning I bought a shit-ton of puts after it reached $49 in asia?

Or did you conveniently forget that?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:38 | 1230597 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Did you sell them?

An experienced trader knows you don't have profits until you book them.  You are waiting for silver to hit the low 30's.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:48 | 1230671 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

A person experienced with Silver knows that selling Puts now is WAY too early.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:04 | 1230774 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Exactly.  You are 100% bearish.  In a ten year bull market.  In a collapsing dollar environment.

You are going to make a trillion dollars, but you won't be able to buy a cup of coffee.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:10 | 1230802 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Bull markets have pauses and corrections.

An experienced investor can spot them, and profit accordingly.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:58 | 1229575 JohnG
JohnG's picture

You just lost that bet moron.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:01 | 1229588 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

And you think this dip only lasts a day?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:37 | 1229865 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Uhh, yeah.  Looks like it.

$46.85

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:52 | 1229954 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Timing is everything.  The next couple of days will tell us if the dip lasts longer.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:09 | 1229288 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Funny you get junked for stating the facts. Must be people from Mish's or KD's boards coming over to tell us all that silver is all done and the bubble has been popped. 

LMAO.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:16 | 1229321 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

People love beautiful lies and hate the ugly truth.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:18 | 1229338 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yup.  Now you only need it to fall another 40% to be able to afford the same amount of physical silver you sold after all that capital gain you realized.

How's that for an ugly truth?

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:25 | 1229385 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Only rookies bet in one direction.

My silver gains went into silver puts to pillage you amateurs in both directions.

God I hope none of you are buying, because this is going to get very ugly for you.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:29 | 1229399 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Dangertime, get bent.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:38 | 1229443 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Everytime I see your 'nic' I am reminded of this song....visioning you dancing around in funny pants like a fool...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIHAkqCls4A

 

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:49 | 1229504 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Yeah sure pal.  I'm sure you have a huge portfolio and make real trades.  All your BS posts are just an act, right? 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:52 | 1229518 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Whatever makes you sleep better at night.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:33 | 1230203 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Physical PMs help me sleep better at night.  Been sleeping very well lately.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:33 | 1230205 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The success or utter failure of your portfolio does not affect us in the least.

Only the weight of the gold and silver in our safes has any effect.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:38 | 1230245 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Funny you say that, because you love to create the lies that I am doing poorly.

Meanwhile I will continue to warn people against buying more silver until this gets done the correction to the low $30's.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:05 | 1230429 fuu
fuu's picture

Sold physical silver at $49 taking tax hit and bought puts.

last Friday you stated tht you were still up $1,000 of the $13,000 you were iniatially up. That was at $45/oz.

So what changed from Friday to today that sitting at $46.xx you are now $20k up?

 

All of this on 1200 oz you sold.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:22 | 1230515 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I wish I sold the physical at $49.  It was $46.

Nothing changed other than emotion and mentality.  My positions are the exact same, however I would wager a fair amount of fear is being generated, thus increasing the premium on my puts.

Those puts were not purchased directly by my physical gains, the physical gains merely strengthened my account after making such a large bet on the opening after silver peaked in asia at $49.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:43 | 1230632 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Uh-huh.  So how are you still up again?

You are wagering wrong on fear being generated.  Look at the chart!  It's a line going almost straight back up!

But sure, anyone can make a bunch of money playing silver volatility.  I would do it myself, except that I'm looking for the whole system to shake itself apart soon, and I don't have any confidence that I will be able to get out before that happens.  And here are morons like you who would have everyone believe that someone was 100% bullish for ten years through ups and DOWNS far worse than this would suddenly turn around and sell every stick of physical he has.  That is bullshit, clearly.

And of course add to that the fact that you didn't know what the lows and highs were, which any owner of physical and any god damn PM trader could tell you off the top of their heads, and the fact that you refuse to tell us which nation you come from that doesn't tax capital gains in PMs (Tell us!  We want to move there!).

You've been outed a dozen times on this board, and your only response is to call the accusations "lies", and to call anyone who calls you out "uncivil".

Take your snake oil somewhere else.  No-one here is buying.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:51 | 1230691 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I'm way up, about 30k now.  Check the options, you will see LOTS of green on the puts.

Now tell me, who would it be bullshit to switch sides and go short on silver?

And of course, you add your typical lies about highs and lows.  I stated pretty clearly what they were and if I was off by a few pennies then BFD.  It doesn't change the concept, which unfortunately is th emost important part and you do not seem to get it.

Hope you didn't spend too much on those $49 ounces you bought.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:06 | 1230764 fuu
fuu's picture

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/silver-backwardation-doubles-overnight#comment-1216814

by Dangertime
on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:32
#1216814

I said by summer dipshit.  That's why I bought october puts.  Try to keep up.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldcore-questions-comex-silver-default-due-secret-buing-russian-billionaire-chinese-traders#comment-1219786

by Dangertime
on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:20
#1219786

Silver will break $50 next week and march possibly even to $60.  Then comes the painful ride back down.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldcore-questions-comex-silver-default-due-secret-buing-russian-billionaire-chinese-traders#comment-1219951

by Dangertime
on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 09:04
#1219951

Only down about 5k.  I actually may close them out and redeploy next week now that the picture is clearing.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-day-another-all-time-high-gold-passes-1543#comment-1220576

by Dangertime
on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 11:24
#1220576

I'm green again!  But that may only be momentarily.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:11 | 1230821 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I post when I'm red and when I'm green.  Can't ask for much more honesty than that, can you?

 

There still is the possibility that silver could break $50 and head to $60, but the larger parabola that appeared to be forming is pretty much violated at this point, so it looks like a clear ride down to the $30's.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:36 | 1230854 fuu
fuu's picture

Well the price was pretty much the same in that 2.5 hour span of going from down $5k to into the green. here I made a picture for you.

 

http://img706.imageshack.us/f/bstime.png/

 

I guess the only way that makes sense is if you are playing with tons of leverage. Otherwise I am not sure how sub 1% moves are netting you $5k a pop. How are those margin hikes feeling?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 15:00 | 1231022 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

That's the thing about options, it's all about emotion.  That's why an experienced trader knows how to play them.

Kids, do NOT try this at home.

 

And I don't play on margin.  I hope you cats don't either.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:50 | 1229525 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

but you're all short. that's one direction.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:05 | 1229599 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Of course.  And when we hit the low 30's, I'll go all long.  It's quite simple, you'll catch on eventually.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:17 | 1229681 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

you're right. it is simple. buy at $10 per ounce and hold like i did. my philosophy is to hold my winners, and sell my losers. i have one position.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:18 | 1229701 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

$47.19 and climbing :-)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:32 | 1229800 Gigliola Cinquetti
Gigliola Cinquetti's picture

So you don't straddle in a highly volatile market like silver ? risky strategy if you get the direction wrong

 

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:39 | 1229858 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I did have physical silver when I first started buying puts only selling it at around $46 when we had serious strength. 

These "honey" short setups don't happen all too often, about once every couple of years or so, but they are pretty much a safe bet to make.  I don't consider my trade to be all that risky.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:41 | 1229875 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, good luck with that.  At this rate we'll be back to $49 before the COMEX close, nevermind Wednesday or Friday.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:26 | 1230521 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

At what rate will we hit $49 now?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:24 | 1229733 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

@dangertime

I don't know who pays you to troll, but you should not ever again have one peaceful night's sleep.  What you are doing it is a disservice to retail.  It is malicious and you should have to compensate for your deeds somehow. 

I bought $42 SLV calls this morning at 3.40.  How does that jive with your propaganda, eh?  How's that make you feel asshole?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:28 | 1229775 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Compensate?  For posting accurate stats on silver?  The funny thing is that I am providing everyone here a service, and yet you hate seeing the truth laid before you.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:52 | 1229958 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

truth is what each man decides for himself, not you. and yet you call us rookies.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:54 | 1229965 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Why don't you attack the silver facts I posted and prove what the truth is?

A wise man would wonder why such nasty corrections occurred.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:14 | 1230125 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

i've studied the silver situation, and arrived at a different conclusion than you. that's what makes a market.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:39 | 1230250 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

True enough.  If you don't think it's going to the low $30's, then by all means, buy a ton more today.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:12 | 1229666 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

especially when they're on the wrong side of history like you are. bet you would have wagered long on the romanov's in 1917, just to prove how wise you are.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:54 | 1229986 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

That isn't what I meant and you know it pal. 

You are a complete douche on silver. $50 will be here soon enough and you'll be discredited once again.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:39 | 1230257 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

$50 is possible.  Low $30's is likely.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 21:07 | 1232453 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"You don't know where I've been Lou, you don't know where I've been!" -- Tyler Durden

Get ready for some "ugly", then:

From http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-great-global-debt-prison#com...

"The tactical wielding of debt has been used by elites for centuries as a means to imprison the masses, or to create an atmosphere of endless dependency. Let’s take a look at what debt really is, and how it is being used against the average American today.  Therefore, fiat induced credit is not the creation of wealth (as Keynesians seem to believe), but the destruction of wealth!"

    * I would posit that it is not just the destruction of wealth, as
there is a chronology to the cash flow and the potential for endless secondary offerings on what passes as "money" now that there is no backing.  Our governors have no governor to restrict the flow of liquidity to themselves and their friends first due to covert means, and it is therefore a transfer of wealth.  The volume of funds siphoned can more than make up for the reduced purchasing power of each piece of our shared paper.  Just so that everyone understands, the dollar is similar to equity shares with no dividend and negative earnings where management continues to issue more shares and dilute existing shareholders - if that is even possible as it is difficult to dilute zero.

    * A huge story recently broke that claims JP Morgan knew about the Madoff scam.  Isn't it possible that just as in printing unaudited fiat (Pentagon missing trillions $) that the private for profit Fed/Big Bank complex could have endlessly created digital "wealth" in the form of multiple mortgage backed securities (indeed we are seeing fraud with multiple MBS on the same property) and duplicated equities similar to fractional reserves.
   
          o On the point regarding fractional reserves in our system, their power is almost infinite with unregulated derivatives and loans that don't require a deposit under a threshold of $9m - based upon the signature of the borrower.

    * Buffett was recently on record squeeling with delight regarding how great banking was (Wells Fargo) and how he wished he had gotten into it much sooner.  One major flaw in our system is that the banks who do nothing (no deposit needed under $9m) but get the paperwork right (robo signers and title chain of custody recording transfers in local city offices?) are able to foreclose on homes for which they do not have an interest or standing for damages.  This is the heart of the most dangerous loophole in our system - someone put up a deposit, made tax payments, and made monthly mortage payments but a bank that id nothing can acquire real assets with conjured up paper alchemy.  The banks are more dangerous now that they have been granted TBTF backstopped status, as in the past bankruptcy would have been a governor on the loans due to management being tossed out as a result of bank bankruptcy (in the days before they could sell off risk to a third party before fake rating agency ratings).
   
          o Small banks and global assets are being sucked up by the oligarchs that own the TBTF's through this default loophole.  Banks purposely have collapsed economies in the past by restricting credit (life blood of the economy) for the sole purpose of gobbling up assets and consolidating power (ABA Congressional Record over 100 years ago, this is an old play book).
          
          o Under these circumstances, the people of America should legitimately question ownership of the assets on the fed and TBTF balance sheets.  While you are looking at the P&L and think they are broke (rightly so), they are busy gobbling up all the assets in the world with their printing press.  Re-read that last sentence again and again until you understand that they just print money into existence and can use it to buy people and assets, trading paper with no intrinsic value for real assets that can be revalued under a new monetary system (who owns the houses, bonds, and equities while they claim they are stabilizing prices and charging us interest on the taxpayer debt to stabilize the assets?).  Ownership is power and influence, regardless if they are technically bankrupt as long as there is a backstop.  The system could change tomorrow, who owns the assets???

    * Created paper money can find itself circling the globe in hot money flows driving prices of everything up with volatility (higher future taxes for QE as well as being taxed on food and gas due to inflation), flows being moved into sector rotation, flows changing in asset allocation, flows going into derivatives that influence the underlying price, flows being round tripped in exchange computers between two entities to drive prices up and down, etc.  We no longer know what price represents, other than POLITICAL WILL - Today B.B. wants to pump up the market, but what if bonds dive pressuring rates up, then he will want funds to flow out of equities and into bonds.  You can only control (personally) hard assets, the price of everything appears to be a function of "What does Ben want?".  I am sure they are feeding all the variables into a supercomputer for guidance, but it probably outlined we are past the mathematical point of no return.  Solving for maximum employment would require either less computers or less people (technology has made many people obsolete relative to previous roles and ability to outsource internationally).

Relevant Qutoes:

    * "In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. ... This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." - Alan Greenspan

    * "But how is this legal plunder to be identified? Quote simply.  See if the law takes from the some persons what belongs to them, and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong.  See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without commiting a crime." - Frederic Bastiat

    * "Democracy must be something more than two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner." - Benjamin Franklin
   
          o Have you watched Jerry Springer?  It sounds idealistic to say all men/women are created equal, but not all opinions or ideas are created equal.  A republic maintains principles against mob rule, and social justice is just an excuse for another power hungry party to decide how to distribute other people's money.  As Thatcher stated, socialism is a great idea until you run out of other people's money.  Once the system has been corrupted with free crony money, it is difficult to unwind and ascertain proper ownership.  A nationalization would most likely result in subsequent privatization to the same cronies.
         
          o Politics is a strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles.  Understand that you are self interested, and so is every other person including politicians - there is no guru or politician that is going to solve all of your problems, that is the cult of personality.  They really don't care about you and you really don't care about them.  We have very few statesmen left with a history of personal sacrifice in duty to their country, and have moved from leaders with character to characters as leaders.  Congress exempted themselves from insider trading laws, so they can legally collude with the money interests.  The money interests fund campaigns, so the only two options from the D and the R camps are both beholden to the moneyed interests.

    * "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."  Campaigning as santa claus, $250m bridge to nowhere anybody?

As Marc Faber has stated, the central banks have managed to blow a bubble in just about everything.  A financial system needs a tether to reality in a world where a quadrillion+ in derivatives could be stretched to the sun and back many times if it was in dollars laid end to end (truly astronomical figures).  If Exeters pyramid collapses from a lack of trust/confidence, then the traditional tether (precious metals) will be revalued dramatically.  At the same time, I understand gold is just the default store of value but it is deeply rooted in the psyche from thousands of years.

The system can be explained to "you", but it can't be understood for "you." (forgive the sound of that it is not meant to be patronizing for those in the know).  Let's put the pieces together so we can understand it together.

The original Obama comment that "now would be a good time for long term investment in the market" could really be useful today for another tell.  My suggestion is that we let J-Lo leak it on American Idol after her Superbowl party with Obama. We didn't trust or believe him the first time as the market tanked for the beginning months of his term.  If we could trust Bernanke, we could ask "Where do you want us to put our savings for maximum wealth effect"?  The herds of nervous investors are stampeding back and forth between asset classes and countries creating uncertainty and volatility.  Do we buy in at the top, and risk being slaughtered by TBTB?

Artificially supressing gold, silver, VIX, and negative or inverse ETFs does not reduce uncertainty, it just sucks money from the rational fundamental investor to insiders and stupid people.  If you see the correlation between having resources to reproduce offspring, then an argument could be made that they are promoting a civilization like the one in the movie Idiocracy where those of low IQ prosper.  Because people are the lifeblood of the economy and credit is the lifeblood of business, water and credit have been replaced with "POMO-ADE, the Growth Thirst Mutilator - Rich in "electronlytes".  Pour it on everything and watch it grow."

Clearly bonds and cash are poor over the long term, but if they pull POMO so are equities, as fundamentals do not currently apply.  If they drive down the price of hard wealth financial assets at the same time then they are nothing more than financial terrorists slowly suffocating us.  The bankers have stated in the past to congress, "we will have world government, the only question is whether it will be by consent or by conquest".  If you take this stated goal of world government, it might be useful for the bankers to have everyone poor so they can acquire assets at pennies on the dollar.  Hungry people that have been kicked out of their houses do not put up much of a fight.  A tenent of communism is abolition of private property. We are back to trust and confidence, and in a fiat system the only thing of value is the statement "In God We Trust" printed on the note.  For all others we accept gold.  You are right, we are in a prisoners dilemma.  If we all agree to put our money on the same assets we could all experience the wealth effect.  Can we trust B.B., does he really have our back or at the first sign of trouble or needing to corral Congress will he let equities fall?  The May flash crash was on the day of a crucial vote in Congress for financial reform, and the debt ceiling issue is fast approaching.

Savers receive negative real interest while bank credit card interest rates can exceed 20% and banks are being handed free money through a shell game.  Living costs are increasing.  11% of homes are vacant, more than 18 million homes and banks won't mark to market since they would have to record a loss.  Read FDR's statement regarding the loss of trust and financial theft on Wall Street, and you will see that we are in the exact same predicament as the Great Depression.  Over the last ten years the market has lost significant ground when adjusting for inflation, but if you look at the cash flows you will see that the financial industry (GS, JPM, MS, etc) siphoned off trillions in pension and 401K fees despite poor performance.  They own the financial media so don't listen to sell side analysts, they are all talking their own book (contrarian thinking could be beneficial here).  Wages are going down for everyone except Wall Street banking pirate bonuses, it is truly a tail of two cities.  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...

"The Truth?!  You can't handle the Truth!" -- Colonel Jessup, "A Few Good Men"

Please feel free to wash down your FRN salad with more "POMO-Ade!"

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:19 | 1229349 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Bay o' pigs, The battle for silver will be won in the coin shops and Phyzz dealers, not in the paper pits.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:19 | 1229362 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

+1

 

I was watching that dip last night while having a roll of ASE's out next to me and felt nothing but calm.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:34 | 1230237 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I now know 2 more people that are going to take their significant bankrolls to get their own physical.

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:38 | 1230263 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Awesome, we need more bagholders.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:33 | 1229429 Arrowflinger
Arrowflinger's picture

Yup, BOP.

Mish and Karl have been hideously wrong with their deflation theory.

They naively thought the Fedtrashery would not go to anything like the extremes of monetization and casting $trillions to the winds.

Final proof should have been when the Fed was forced to reveal its gift of $26 billion to that Arab bank who cannot possibly pay it back.

Sinclair is right and we will get QE to infinity.

Yeah, you can book profits by selling your silver, but if you bought it as insurance since the $5.25 level, will you be able to get it back?

Mish is struggling. His thesis 'might' fit the next leg down, but so far the monetizers insanity has ruled.

 

 

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:25 | 1230167 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Lots of variables (below are just a few) in play here and the game is not yet over..... 

Fact is we are at the extreme end of the curve for monetary policy, things are VERY unstable...  it looks like it will go down the route of dollar devaluation/inflation.  However unlikely, you might see the end of QE, the raise of interest rates and the contraction of the monetary base (this would be very difficult, painful and ugly).

HOWEVER the fat lady hasn't yet walked on the stage....

Will the USA (with it's huge military presence) stand by and allow the dollar to be removed as the reserve currency?  We will NOT lose our reserve currency status without a major military engagement and some good old fashion gun boat diplomacy (of course it will be in the guise of the war on terrorism or some such nonsense)!  

The impacts of Fukushima to Japan and secondary the northern hemisphere have yet to been considered... contamination of soils, water and FOOD SUPPLY....  collapse of the Japanese economy...

The sovereign debt of the PIIGS and the financial insolvency of the Euro Banks (much less the banks of the USA) has not been addressed (what does that do to the inflation/deflation if the Euro Zone fails)...

China's has some real structural flaws that have yet to be played out ... some real curve balls could be realized from that quarter.

http://mpettis.com/

Long term issues with global food production and drought, depletion of aquifers, etc are coming to a head, reserves are near all time lows.

The Muslim Brother Hood.....  long term oil supply disruption..

What happens to inflation/deflation under these variables or combinations of?

Things are just getting interesting! 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:12 | 1229315 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Ya know, repeating this post over and over won't make it come true.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:15 | 1229316 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

Have no idea, but you've posted this about five times already.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:17 | 1229328 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

People gripped in greed and mania often need to read things multiple times before obvious truth sinks in.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:16 | 1229344 tmosley
tmosley's picture

And lies, repeated often enough become truth.

Or so you seem to think.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:23 | 1229368 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Just like the JP Morgan short rumor...  and the rumor that SLV doesn't have silver.

Repeated enough on sites like Zerohedge that people actually believe the shit.

Meanwhile, JP Morgan shut down their prop commoditites business last summer, and SLV publishes a bar list and audit.

Quite pathetic - people like you putting 95% of their net worth in Silver on baseless rumors.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:22 | 1229378 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Works for me.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:28 | 1229397 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

what is your goal with the relentless negative silver posts? do you post for altruistic reasons as if grown men aren't smart enough to make decisions for themselves regarding their investments? are you trying to make yourself feel better about losing money? what gives? you sure are an odd duck.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:31 | 1229409 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Sick of seeing people fall for bubbles over and over again...  dot.coms, real estate, silver...  one after another.   No one ever learns.

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:33 | 1229427 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

 You're right, think I'll trade some silver for gold....don't wanna put all my eggs in one basket :-)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:53 | 1229533 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

That's actually a wise decision.  Get most of your gains in silver and then protect them in gold which is less volatile.  Not perfect, but far better than staying in this pig.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:12 | 1229647 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

so it's a pig when you say it's a pig. was it a pig at $12 per ounce?

your pig is my princess.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:26 | 1229784 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Not at all.  I bought at even lower prices than that.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:50 | 1229939 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

good for you. the difference is that many of us think silver is going higher. and in your world for us to believe that means we're misguided, so you're the arbiter of what's a pig and what isn't.

as for me, i think i'll keep my winners.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:53 | 1229975 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I only provided silver facts.  If you think it is wise to keep adding to your position at these levels even after reading those facts, then by all means, buy.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:13 | 1230113 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

whether you make money or not is irrelevant to me. but i thank you for the concern for my net worth. you're a true samaritan.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:39 | 1230265 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Anytime.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:29 | 1229801 gametracker
gametracker's picture

pig? read your Constitution dumbass. A Constitutional dollar is 371.25 grains of .999 silver. An Unconstitutional dollar is a Federal Reserve Note backed only by your trust in politicians and bankers. Sounds like you still trust 'em. Good luck with that.

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:38 | 1229873 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

And for 100 years those feds have existed debasing our currency over 95%.

I hardly think holding silver all of that time would do wonders for your net worth.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 16:39 | 1231487 kalasend
kalasend's picture

seeing how even a moderate comment gets junked.... how can i believe the ZH silver bugs are still sane?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 21:17 | 1232473 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I can think of $14Trillion+ reasons why it's more sane to have an Au/Ag wealth Insurance policy(s)!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:42 | 1229461 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

so you see yourself as some sort of sentry standing on the wall protecting other grown men from themselves. that sounds dubious to me?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:51 | 1229534 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Exactly, he's just so smart and we're all so dumb.  He does have a Ferrari and a beach house after all.  We need his help and should be thankful he keeps posting on every down move. 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:04 | 1229615 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

You only became dumb when you refused to list to reason and attacked people making logical arguments.

First rule of investing, do NOT get emotionally attached to your position.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:08 | 1229639 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

as if you're not emotionally attached to the short side.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:30 | 1229790 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I am only attached to facts.

I do not attack anyone here for posting facts.  Yet I am the target of so much hatred for sharing accurate data.

I think it shows pretty clearly which side is a bit more emotionally invested in their position.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:44 | 1229913 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

your facts? by whose definition? yours? and you say we're misguided for studying a situation, evaluating the opportunity, and then investing our savings in the investment. so when you come to a conclusion different than ours you say we're misguided, but you're wise.

and yet we're the people attached to our position emotionally, and you're not. bizarre.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:55 | 1230004 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Facts do not have personal definitions.  They are facts.  If you can prove them wrong, then please do.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:13 | 1230099 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

then you just proved yourself wrong. who created the facts as you call them: a man, whose personal definition of the situation was his facts. like i said. you see yourself as the arbiter of truth and reason, and what you're doing with these posts is an attempt to prove to yourself how wise you are to make up for deficiencies in other areas of your life.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:43 | 1230276 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

They are facts.  I did not create anything.  They are not my personal definition.  You are merely rationalizing your laziness in not reviewing the data.

And then, predictably, you throw insults.  How DARE someone throw facts at your dogma!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:57 | 1230368 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

like i said. i studied the silver story, and reached a conclusion exactly as you did, if you are to be believed, when silver was in the $10 to $12 range. i bought a lot, and bought more on the way up. my view is that the story hasn't changed.

by the way. talking about dogma. are you saying you don't have a dogma, and i do. comical.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:06 | 1230423 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I too bought in the $4, $7, and $10 range when .com was still melting down.

I still believe PM's are in a long-term bull.  But I would hate for people to get sucked into buying Silver at these levels when a bargain filled basement price is coming this summer.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:22 | 1230497 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

ok. now i get it. you and math man are alike in that you see yourselves as heroic men, out to save the poor misguided fools from themselves. you're like the guy who says i'm from the government and i'm here to help you, as he inadvertently destroys those he attempts to help.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:29 | 1230545 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Truthfully, yes that is what I'm trying to do.

I have to admit, the people here are politically and financially savvy.  I like people that do not fall for the PC bullshit spouted by Bush or Obama or Clinton or pick any of the dictators in power.

It benefits me to see people of like minds, people with a more libertarian point of view, to gain wealth and grow in power.

Financially, you all seem to be pretty savvy, but how much better would it be for all of you to wait for the sheep to buy at these prices, which would then allow us, who can fix this country, to get a lot more silver at a 30% discount?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:48 | 1230662 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

geez, you are a true crusader. what makes you think everybody has their last dollar invested already in silver. is it the fault of silver holders that they were right, and their investment doubled in a year. you trade. others invest. but you want other folks to be like you, even as you pound the table and say you don't have a dogma. then you turn around and admit you're on a mission from God to protect us from ourselves.

you're right with your avatar: it's dangertime for those unfortunate enough to be in your wake.

good riddance to you.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:54 | 1230709 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Silver holders were correct on only the ride up. 

I am correct on the ride up and the ride down as well. 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 15:28 | 1231149 Insert witty title
Insert witty title's picture

utter. cunt.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 21:21 | 1232481 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Fact:

lim $$^y = ∞, for y > 0

$$-> ∞

Fact:  No serious spending cuts have been made to an amount over $14Trillion by the US Govt.

Do the Math.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:57 | 1230732 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

We all stopped listening to your shilling a long time ago.  It wasn't "reason" or "logical arguments" then, it's not now, and it won't be in the future.  The real traders/investors on ZH can tell who is for real and who is just talking shit.  You're too dumb to tell the difference.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:15 | 1230831 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

You stopped listening the moment you saw anything that wasn't "Rah Rah Silver!!!!".

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:51 | 1229539 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Any reason you hate an opposing viewpoint?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:08 | 1229625 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

that's an odd question coming from someone who opposes those of us long silver, and who takes every opportunity to denigrate your own opposing view.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:28 | 1229798 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I don't hate your viewpoint.  I certainly don't attack you or call you names.

Yet I receive terrible treatment for showing the truth.  I wonder what that means.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:34 | 1229835 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It means you're on a different id when you are calling people libtards and faggots and stuff. I'm sorry if the big dog and pony show didn't work out for you. Go back to the production room and try to get the cowbell mix right.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:43 | 1229891 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Libtards, repubtards.  All the same.  Every election year it's mudslinging and blame with no change.

Don't you know, the real America died over a century ago when Lincoln used slavery as an excuse to invade the South and pull the North out of it's depression.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:39 | 1229882 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

odd that you would see your view as the truth. but those of us who see things in a different view are misguided, and poor traders, even as many of us have tripled our money.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:42 | 1229896 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

You haven't tripled your money since I came on scene with my SLV puts.

I, on the other hand, am now up 25% on my new position.  Soon to be much more.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:07 | 1230059 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

didn't say i tripled my money in a week. i have tripled over the last few years when i went all in. by the way silver is up some 65% in the last two months or so. you really are full of yourself. saw a lot of guys like you in my 28 years as a broker etc ...

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:45 | 1230290 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

There are no men like me.  There's only me.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:45 | 1230649 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Correct, you are not a man.  You are a lie.

First truthful thing you've said since you got here.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:55 | 1230718 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

More accusations with no proof.

Just a hatred for someone that exposes the bullshit of your dogma that silver cannot possibly correct.

Sure looks like you are wrong today.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:18 | 1230857 knowless
knowless's picture

you sure are an arrogant fuck.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:59 | 1231030 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

If I didn't know better, that elation is turning to anger.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 21:26 | 1232488 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

After the Great Implosion, when everyone realizes that FRNs have an intrinsic value of around $85/Ton (pretty pictures, notwithstanding!), who's gonna trade YOU a REAL loaf of bread for worthless confetti?

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:46 | 1229479 tickhound
tickhound's picture

"Sick of seeing people fall for bubbles over and over again...  dot.coms, real estate"

Barriers to entry were consistently lowered in those markets... unlike silver.

Not sure you could spot a trend if the Bee Gees told you disco was dead.

Hence, the trend of you being so wrong, so often, in so many ways, about this single trade will continue.

Along with your red ferrari fetish, eh Magnum... with your hair still parted down the middle and feathered on the sides.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:12 | 1229663 The Third Man
The Third Man's picture

"Not sure you could spot a trend if the Bee Gees told you disco was dead"

++++++

frickin' hilarious!!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:51 | 1229536 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

@MathMan...apparently, you have not learned.  Just because something goes up in price, doesn't mean it's in bubble.  Look at the three things you mentioned: dot.coms, real estate, and silver.

Dot.coms and real estate were massively demanded by the general public.  How much of the household balance sheet is currently in silver?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:44 | 1230298 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"How much of the household balance sheet is currently in silver?"

Ans: Less than 1%

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:27 | 1229401 goldm3mb3r
goldm3mb3r's picture

every move you make, I'll be watching you.

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm metal.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:31 | 1229410 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You mean that audit where 1033 bars had serial number changes?

They should change the etf. Send you a box with a bar code on it. And if you want to get your silver back. Simply send it in and wait 4 to 6 weeks for delivery.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:30 | 1229387 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

MethMom and DT...just remember: it's not a lie, if you believe it

How very 'Zen'.

Here's a koan for you two: what is the sound of one hand slapping (you across the face again and again and again)

You two just cuddle up and keep ignoring the 'evidence of the ol' glazzies'.

Oh, and you'd better practice repeating the question, "Would you like that in a pump, or a loafer?"

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:53 | 1229547 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I do believe those silver stats are true.  Unless you have facts to refute them?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!