Silver Surge #2 Imminent?

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Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:49 | 1467389 SheepDog-One
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Reading the other 9 'hot searches' of the avg american makes me plan another trip to the ammo store today.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:51 | 1467407 uranian
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try krugerrand next to american idol for some more entertainment.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:41 | 1467637 Ahmeexnal
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Actually, try "silver futures" on wolframalpha.

 

Projections from historical volatility:

 

The results come out in a gif which I'm unable to post above.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:07 | 1467778 Fedophile
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Projections from historical volatility:

 

50% range, 1 month | 37.1  (-8.0%) to 43.85  (+8.7%)

95% range, 1 month | 31.63  (-21.6%) to 51.43  (+27.5%)

50% range, 1 year | 30.19  (-25.2%) to 53.89  (+33.6%)

95% range, 1 year | 17.38  (-56.9%) to 93.59  (+132.1%)

(assuming lognormal price distribution)

 

There is a copy to plaintext function.

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:52 | 1468959 eisley79
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a more accurate reading than google trends, would be silver troll posts.  They are already starting to crawl back out from under their rocks to try and re-write their wrong calls of the past.  Good thing i save stuff to text files.

Once we have a bull run in ST (Silver Troll Inc), you know Physical wont be far behind.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:57 | 1467443 malikai
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Don't pretend that you didn't click on ivanka or real housewives. :)

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:02 | 1467474 Stoploss
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Wake up people, compression trade #2 on deck

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:13 | 1467536 Upswaller
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+40.  Best comment of the day!!!!!!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:27 | 1467606 rosiescenario
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....just be sure and save one for yourself....

....amazing....obviously they did not count my search for "How to build a suppressor"....

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:33 | 1467632 I_ate_the_crow
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My favorite is "portable air conditioner". That's American society in a nutshell.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:42 | 1467682 augie
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Comfort is our curse. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:15 | 1467823 Ima anal sphincter
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Try Houston in July......then we'll talk.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:55 | 1467946 augie
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No thanks, not my kind of scene... already Tried Fallujah in August.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:04 | 1467979 Ima anal sphincter
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You've got me beat. You can pass through this checkpoint at any time.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:54 | 1468124 Al Gorerhythm
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Pass through a sphincter? I'll let him go first.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 18:10 | 1468163 Ima anal sphincter
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+#2  I'm laughing on that one.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 20:21 | 1468521 IQ 145
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 What would Al Gore do? Wave his hands and shout and claim it was Global Warming.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 01:26 | 1469273 FlyPaper
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Unless you are in Seattle, where we still struggle to break 70 and its been raining for 10 months...

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:47 | 1468107 BandGap
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Mon, 07/18/2011 - 20:24 | 1468533 IQ 145
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 +.610 volts

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 01:59 | 1469307 StychoKiller
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Ge?  Now that's old-school!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:50 | 1467390 scatterbrains
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This may very well be a good short entry point in anticipation of the equity market take down / futes margin spike. I mean they could raise margin to the point that your only allowed to sell no ?  Would that be anything new ?

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:49 | 1467394 uranian
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the strangest example of google trends i've seen was one day a couple of years back when jordan maxwell was the hottest search. i even mailed the cranky old bugger about that.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:54 | 1467420 slaughterer
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I bet COMEX raises margins within 48 hours of this posting on ZH.   Google trends is a very strong contrarian indicator, and SLV is showing slight intraday weakness today. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:58 | 1467452 PuppetRepubl1c
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+1 comex margin increase definitely coming

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 20:28 | 1468543 IQ 145
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 No. margin is proportional to price; and timing is by open interest; the total number of open contracts; no increase until after $50 goes by.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:03 | 1467482 Sudden Debt
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Raising rates on silver now is suicide.

260 to 1

If the margins reach actual silverprice 100%, why wouldn't you ask for delivery?

How will they deliver that?

If they increase margins now, the last bits of silverdust will be sold on the cheap and after that it's going to rocket up X4, X5 easy in a few days.

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:09 | 1467516 HungrySeagull
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Woof! Pant, Pant, Pant *Salivates   

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:26 | 1467598 fuu
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Can't have the JPM share price under the spot price. Only took a couple of days last time before the smackdown came in.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:42 | 1467906 Solid Gold Bubble
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Yep, that's the one to watch - the Blythe Ratio, now over parity again. Sign of either another smackdown or the final death throes of JPM

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:09 | 1467987 dracos_ghost
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Well, Jamie Dimon has a job at treasury if all else fails.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:51 | 1467404 pods
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Well looking at the rest of the top 10 I would have to say that it is a safe bet that we are doomed.

 

pods

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:53 | 1467413 FunkyMonkeyBoy
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Dumb americans are looking at silver prices 'cause they want to sell their silver "scrap" for a new 2" wider TV.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:56 | 1467429 tmosley
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You underestimate people to your own peril.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:42 | 1467678 firefighter302
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+1   I agree, tmosley.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:51 | 1467718 Idiot Savant
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No, it's dumb Americans buying at the top. I saw more newbies buying silver  a few months ago at $45.00, than I've seen buying since the '08 crash. Seriously, watch some of the bullion forums and sellers. As the price rises, mania sets in and newbies pile on. There hasn't been any shortages at $35.00, but wait until it hits $49.00 next time. TFF.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:07 | 1467786 fuu
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I dub thee Spalding Savant.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:22 | 1467843 akak
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95% Idiot, 5% Savant.

"But it only costs $5 to dig from the ground!"

"But it only costs $5 to dig from the ground!"

"But it only costs $5 to dig from the ground!"

"But it only costs $5 to dig from the ground!"

 

There are going to be more than a few financial headstones engraved with the above line --- and I can't wait to get my hammer and chisel ready to start engraving Spalding's.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:12 | 1467807 tmosley
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So you are on the record that $45 was the top?

For the record, I was buying at those levels too.  I also bought when it when down.  This price rise ain't shit compared to what's coming.  That's with or without a collapsing dollar.  I want everyone to know so that everyone can retain their wealth.  Most won't listen though.  Too bad for them.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:41 | 1467900 Idiot Savant
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Not at all, I'm long term bullish! I'm merely pointing out the folly of human nature. Everyone should be loading up on corrections, but you'll see the usual mania buyers flood the market as the price starts climbing.

With prices floundering around $35.00, has APMEX sent you an email wanting to buy your silver? No, but we'll all get another one the next time silver closes on $50.00.

Sorry, but I find that humorous.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:13 | 1467995 lawrence1
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Totally agree that this price rise aint shit to what's coming.  Buy as one can, going up, going down, because ITS THE TREND STUPID!! and the trend is obviously up.

Only a financial advisor wont see that.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:03 | 1467752 Idiot Savant
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...

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:58 | 1467449 Quinvarius
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americans have no silver scrap.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:09 | 1467511 SilverDosed
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Definitely wrong on this note, I buy from 4 coin shops and about 20 "we buy gold" shops and they're all flooded with business. All the sheep selling of course. It took silver hitting 45 a couple months back for my local shops to go from net local buyers to net local sellers. More 90% these days than scrap, its all bagged and shipped off to the big boys who melt most and retail the 90% online. When (if) the shops' business turn again like the spring then a takedown is near or things are about to explode.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:54 | 1467728 Sudden Debt
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A few weeks ago we had dinner with some friend at their home.

I was talking about securing money in PM's and then my friend said that his wife had "invested" in silver.

She was so proud.

So she showed me what she bought: 1 tea set in silver and a few other big coffee and kitchen stuff insilver.

I looked at it and after 2 seconds I said her that it was all silver plated.

So i asked how much she paid for it: About 50$ on Ebay...

Yeah... silver investment...

If it shines like silver, it's silver for most people.

Then she said she had al lot of silver jewelery. So I told her that a comon silver ring has 3 grams of silver in it.

It takes 10 rings to have 1 ounce worth 45$

Silence...

There are indeed not a lot of people who actually own stuff worth selling with real value.

A LCD TV, big ass fridge... everybody has those and when a real depression would kick in, those will be worthless.

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:11 | 1467800 HungrySeagull
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I am reduced to tears at the stark truth in this post.

There are so many like it in my family, woe onto them.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 18:29 | 1468211 Diogenes
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I follow some real estate web sites. When the mortgage crisis hit 3 or 4 years ago there were  reports of SUV after SUV at thrift stores, some with U Haul trailers, giving away near new big screen TVs, leather sofas, etc etc all from people losing their homes.

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:51 | 1468791 HungrySeagull
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A large screen TV sits in my home bought for 190 dollars out of a pawn shop. Complete with manual and wires. It was only in the store about 14 hours total. The person who pawned it did not get very much for it. Walmart at the time was asking 1000 retail so.. it was a nice buy.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:17 | 1467555 MonkeySmoke
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They sold all their "scrap" in April when prices were between $40-$45. Grandma's silver tea set has already been shipped to China and is rolling down the line in a new solar panel.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 20:31 | 1468554 IQ 145
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 You know a lot of middle class suburban families that have "silver scrap"?

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