Silver Surge #2 Imminent?

Tyler Durden's picture

Here it comes again, courtesy of Google Trends. We will shortly start taking bets how many hours will pass before the CME hikes silver margins by another 100%, despite not lowering them once in the spot price drop from $50 to $32 over the past two months.

h/t Mongo

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SheepDog-One's picture

Reading the other 9 'hot searches' of the avg american makes me plan another trip to the ammo store today.

uranian's picture

try krugerrand next to american idol for some more entertainment.

Ahmeexnal's picture

Actually, try "silver futures" on wolframalpha.


Projections from historical volatility:


The results come out in a gif which I'm unable to post above.

Fedophile's picture


Projections from historical volatility:


50% range, 1 month | 37.1  (-8.0%) to 43.85  (+8.7%)

95% range, 1 month | 31.63  (-21.6%) to 51.43  (+27.5%)

50% range, 1 year | 30.19  (-25.2%) to 53.89  (+33.6%)

95% range, 1 year | 17.38  (-56.9%) to 93.59  (+132.1%)

(assuming lognormal price distribution)


There is a copy to plaintext function.


eisley79's picture

a more accurate reading than google trends, would be silver troll posts.  They are already starting to crawl back out from under their rocks to try and re-write their wrong calls of the past.  Good thing i save stuff to text files.

Once we have a bull run in ST (Silver Troll Inc), you know Physical wont be far behind.

malikai's picture

Don't pretend that you didn't click on ivanka or real housewives. :)

Stoploss's picture

Wake up people, compression trade #2 on deck

Upswaller's picture

+40.  Best comment of the day!!!!!!

rosiescenario's picture

....just be sure and save one for yourself....

....amazing....obviously they did not count my search for "How to build a suppressor"....

I_ate_the_crow's picture

My favorite is "portable air conditioner". That's American society in a nutshell.

Ima anal sphincter's picture

Try Houston in July......then we'll talk.

augie's picture

No thanks, not my kind of scene... already Tried Fallujah in August.

Ima anal sphincter's picture

You've got me beat. You can pass through this checkpoint at any time.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

Pass through a sphincter? I'll let him go first.

IQ 145's picture

 What would Al Gore do? Wave his hands and shout and claim it was Global Warming.

FlyPaper's picture

Unless you are in Seattle, where we still struggle to break 70 and its been raining for 10 months...

scatterbrains's picture

This may very well be a good short entry point in anticipation of the equity market take down / futes margin spike. I mean they could raise margin to the point that your only allowed to sell no ?  Would that be anything new ?


uranian's picture

the strangest example of google trends i've seen was one day a couple of years back when jordan maxwell was the hottest search. i even mailed the cranky old bugger about that.

slaughterer's picture

I bet COMEX raises margins within 48 hours of this posting on ZH.   Google trends is a very strong contrarian indicator, and SLV is showing slight intraday weakness today. 

PuppetRepubl1c's picture

+1 comex margin increase definitely coming

IQ 145's picture

 No. margin is proportional to price; and timing is by open interest; the total number of open contracts; no increase until after $50 goes by.

Sudden Debt's picture

Raising rates on silver now is suicide.

260 to 1

If the margins reach actual silverprice 100%, why wouldn't you ask for delivery?

How will they deliver that?

If they increase margins now, the last bits of silverdust will be sold on the cheap and after that it's going to rocket up X4, X5 easy in a few days.


HungrySeagull's picture

Woof! Pant, Pant, Pant *Salivates   

fuu's picture

Can't have the JPM share price under the spot price. Only took a couple of days last time before the smackdown came in.

Solid Gold Bubble's picture

Yep, that's the one to watch - the Blythe Ratio, now over parity again. Sign of either another smackdown or the final death throes of JPM

dracos_ghost's picture

Well, Jamie Dimon has a job at treasury if all else fails.

pods's picture

Well looking at the rest of the top 10 I would have to say that it is a safe bet that we are doomed.



FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Dumb americans are looking at silver prices 'cause they want to sell their silver "scrap" for a new 2" wider TV.

tmosley's picture

You underestimate people to your own peril.

Idiot Savant's picture

No, it's dumb Americans buying at the top. I saw more newbies buying silver  a few months ago at $45.00, than I've seen buying since the '08 crash. Seriously, watch some of the bullion forums and sellers. As the price rises, mania sets in and newbies pile on. There hasn't been any shortages at $35.00, but wait until it hits $49.00 next time. TFF.

fuu's picture

I dub thee Spalding Savant.

akak's picture

95% Idiot, 5% Savant.

"But it only costs $5 to dig from the ground!"

"But it only costs $5 to dig from the ground!"

"But it only costs $5 to dig from the ground!"

"But it only costs $5 to dig from the ground!"


There are going to be more than a few financial headstones engraved with the above line --- and I can't wait to get my hammer and chisel ready to start engraving Spalding's.

tmosley's picture

So you are on the record that $45 was the top?

For the record, I was buying at those levels too.  I also bought when it when down.  This price rise ain't shit compared to what's coming.  That's with or without a collapsing dollar.  I want everyone to know so that everyone can retain their wealth.  Most won't listen though.  Too bad for them.

Idiot Savant's picture

Not at all, I'm long term bullish! I'm merely pointing out the folly of human nature. Everyone should be loading up on corrections, but you'll see the usual mania buyers flood the market as the price starts climbing.

With prices floundering around $35.00, has APMEX sent you an email wanting to buy your silver? No, but we'll all get another one the next time silver closes on $50.00.

Sorry, but I find that humorous.

lawrence1's picture

Totally agree that this price rise aint shit to what's coming.  Buy as one can, going up, going down, because ITS THE TREND STUPID!! and the trend is obviously up.

Only a financial advisor wont see that.

Quinvarius's picture

americans have no silver scrap.

SilverDosed's picture

Definitely wrong on this note, I buy from 4 coin shops and about 20 "we buy gold" shops and they're all flooded with business. All the sheep selling of course. It took silver hitting 45 a couple months back for my local shops to go from net local buyers to net local sellers. More 90% these days than scrap, its all bagged and shipped off to the big boys who melt most and retail the 90% online. When (if) the shops' business turn again like the spring then a takedown is near or things are about to explode.

Sudden Debt's picture

A few weeks ago we had dinner with some friend at their home.

I was talking about securing money in PM's and then my friend said that his wife had "invested" in silver.

She was so proud.

So she showed me what she bought: 1 tea set in silver and a few other big coffee and kitchen stuff insilver.

I looked at it and after 2 seconds I said her that it was all silver plated.

So i asked how much she paid for it: About 50$ on Ebay...

Yeah... silver investment...

If it shines like silver, it's silver for most people.

Then she said she had al lot of silver jewelery. So I told her that a comon silver ring has 3 grams of silver in it.

It takes 10 rings to have 1 ounce worth 45$


There are indeed not a lot of people who actually own stuff worth selling with real value.

A LCD TV, big ass fridge... everybody has those and when a real depression would kick in, those will be worthless.


HungrySeagull's picture

I am reduced to tears at the stark truth in this post.

There are so many like it in my family, woe onto them.

Diogenes's picture

I follow some real estate web sites. When the mortgage crisis hit 3 or 4 years ago there were  reports of SUV after SUV at thrift stores, some with U Haul trailers, giving away near new big screen TVs, leather sofas, etc etc all from people losing their homes.


HungrySeagull's picture

A large screen TV sits in my home bought for 190 dollars out of a pawn shop. Complete with manual and wires. It was only in the store about 14 hours total. The person who pawned it did not get very much for it. Walmart at the time was asking 1000 retail so.. it was a nice buy.

MonkeySmoke's picture

They sold all their "scrap" in April when prices were between $40-$45. Grandma's silver tea set has already been shipped to China and is rolling down the line in a new solar panel.

IQ 145's picture

 You know a lot of middle class suburban families that have "silver scrap"?